RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 26, 2022

Operator

Good morning. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the RenaissanceRe Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. After the prepared remark, we will open the call for your questions. Instructions will be given at that time. Lastly, if you should need operator assistance, please press star zero. Thank you, and I will now turn the call over to Keith McCue, Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Keith McCue
Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations, RenaissanceRe

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for joining our Q2 financial results conference call. Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued our quarterly release. If you didn't receive a copy, please call me at 441-239-4830 and we'll make sure to provide you with one. There will be an audio replay of the call available from about 1 P.M. Eastern time today through midnight on August 2. The replay can be accessed by dialing 800-938-2806 in the US or 1-402-222-09034 internationally. Today's call is also available through the investor information section of www.renre.com. Before we begin, I'm obliged to caution that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those discussed.

Additional information regarding the factors shaping these outcomes can be found in RenaissanceRe's SEC filings to which we direct you. With us to discuss today's results are Kevin O'Donnell, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Robert Qutub, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd now like to turn the call over to Kevin. Kevin?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Thanks, Keith. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. We are pleased to report that RenRe generated strong Q2 results that combine consistent bottom-line profitability with continued top-line growth. For the quarter, we delivered an annualized operating return on average common equity of 18%, our third sequential quarter of double-digit ROEs. Importantly, we also increased our net premiums by 23%. On a year-to-date basis, we have a reported operating ROE of 14.4% and growth in net written premium of 21%. Overall, our strong financial performance this quarter reflects the resilience of our business model across macroeconomic environments. It demonstrates that our strategy can consistently deliver profitable growth with improved performance across all three of RenRe's drivers of profit, underwriting, fees, and investments.

From an underwriting perspective, we are especially pleased by the growing contribution of our casualty and specialty segment to our operating results. Increasing fee and investment income also serve as a stable platform to support our more volatile property cat portfolio. Turning now to the operating environment. We are confident in our ability to continue creating near and long-term value for shareholders, notwithstanding challenges in the global macroeconomy. As we all are well aware, most broad economic indicators continued to decay during the quarter, driving concerns over inflation and increasing fears of recession. I would like to take a minute to discuss economic conditions and how they might impact our strategic approach and business results. Inflation in its various forms, social, economic, and event-driven, is a factor we have always taken into consideration in running our business.

Given the resurgence of economic inflation, we have implemented a robust framework across our underwriting portfolio to estimate and price for its impact. As a result, we are requiring materially increased rates to compensate for the loss cost impact of inflation. As such, even given our increased view of risk, we are still receiving rates ahead of trend. We have applied a similar framework to our reserving process, which we continue to assess and review based on our increased inflation assumptions. That said, we remain comfortable with our reserves even after stress testing for inflation. On the asset side of the balance sheet, inflation-driven interest rate increases are materially improving our investment returns. This should significantly offset the impact of inflation on our business as the increase in interest rates is likely to persist longer than elevated inflation.

In summary, we have adopted a proactive approach to inflation and expect that once we have balanced the trade-off between inflation and increased yield, the net impact on our operating results will be positive. The risk of recession is a more recent but growing concern. Our business model has historically proven to be less sensitive to this risk. There are several reasons for this. First, across the insurance value chain, there is limited discretion in purchasing decisions. Most policyholders must purchase coverage, as is the case with homeowners insurance and many commercial coverages. By extension, most insurance carriers require reinsurance to maintain their portfolios. Second, inflationary pressures and recessions can raise demand for reinsurance. Inflation increases the cost of goods and services, consequently raising total insured values and, by extension, demand for additional reinsurance limits.

Recession also decreases tolerance for risk, so demand for volatility protection goes up. Third, recession and inflation reduce the supply of capital while increasing its costs. Consequently, reinsurance rates typically rise while simultaneously becoming more competitive versus other forms of risk capital. As a result of these supply and demand dynamics, over the course of the next year, we expect increasing demand for our products across both property and casualty and specialty. In addition, rates should continue to face upward pressure, in some cases materially. We saw this at the mid-year renewals, with property cat demand increasing by about $5 billion against constrained supply, leading to substantially higher rates. The constrained supply of reinsurance is being driven by investor concerns over reinsurance generally as a class and property cats specifically.

As you know, we have deep roots as a writer of property catastrophe reinsurance and remain committed to this risk as a core component of our underwriting strategy. This is due to our competitive advantage in understanding property cat risk and our conviction that we will be paid for the volatility over time. RenRe's strategic commitment to reinsurance enhances our value proposition to customers along three critical dimensions. First, our participation is consistent.

We manage risk on behalf of the biggest and best cedents and provide consistent exposure-driven pricing regardless of short-term weather predictions or deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Second, our participation is broad. Our customers value the scale and breadth of our offerings and our ability to meet all their reinsurance needs. Third, we do not compete with our customers. Our strategic focus on reinsurance minimizes potential channel conflict. This strategy is clear, consistent, and increasingly differentiating.

We believe that it provides us outsized participations on the best reinsurance programs and ensures we are a first call market for new or increased reinsurance demand. Before I hand over to Bob, I wanted to address one of the major factors behind the market's perception of property cat risk, and that is the poor historic performance of cat models. In no small part, this is due to an overreliance on vendor models that inadequately capture the growing influence of climate change. Our scientists and engineers at RenRe Risk Sciences believe that the commercially available models do not properly reflect climate change as an evolving phenomenon. For some perils, while vendors may have adjusted their views to reflect recent experience, we believe that they have not robustly captured the physics of climate change.

From a risk management perspective, this means that the vendor model outputs are likely to underestimate the risk that insurers and reinsurers are managing. This could cause companies to expose more capital than intended, and their returns for managing cat risk will be lower than expected. Consequently, investors may question whether the entire insurance industry truly understands the potential impact of climate risk, whether it being correctly incorporated in the industry's evaluation of risk, and most critically, whether it is appropriately reflected in rates.

Now let me explain why we are confident in our management pricing and portfolio construction of this risk. We have invested considerable resources in modeling and understanding climate change. Our team at RenRe Risk Sciences ensures our models always reflect the most up-to-date data-informed science. This enables us to steadily increase our current view of risk to reflect the present-day impact of climate change.

As a result, we believe our models are better predictors of the impact of climate change on loss costs. In addition, our REMS underwriting system provides us an additional competitive advantage in underwriting property catastrophe risk. All our risks must be underwritten and modeled through REMS, which is continuously updated to fully reflect the best understanding of the physical parameters of shifting weather patterns. This ensures that our underwriting decisions are based on an elevated view of risk that fully reflects climate change. It gives us confidence that we are being paid appropriately for the risk we are assuming. That concludes my opening comments. I'll provide more detailed update on our segment performance at the end of the call, but first, I'll turn it over to Bob to discuss our financial performance for the quarter.

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Q2 was a strong quarter for RenRe as we reported operating income of $238 million and an annualized operating return on average common equity of 18.4%. These are excellent results that demonstrate strong underwriting performance, the capabilities of our platform, and our continued focus on executing our strategy to consistently deliver profitable growth. As I said last quarter, we believe that there is further upside to our earnings across each of our three drivers of profit. We progressed each of these drivers in the Q2 . First, our casualty and specialty business is on track to consistently deliver a mid-nineties combined ratio on a growing premium base. This quarter, casualty and specialty reported a 94% combined ratio and generated $52 million of underwriting income.

Second, our net investment income is benefiting from rising interest rates and increased investment leverage. This quarter, our managed net investment income was $107 million, up almost 30% from the Q1 , and we anticipate continued improvement as our new money yield is nearly double our current net investment income yield. Finally, fee income increased to $34 million, and we remain on target to earn fee income in the range of $45 million per quarter by the end of the year, absent any large losses. All of these factors should reinforce a stable earnings foundation that we believe will benefit our shareholder returns. Now moving on to capital management, and as you know, our first priority is to deploy capital into the business, which we view as our highest return potential, and then return excess capital to shareholders over time at attractive levels.

In the Q2 , we chose to return a modest amount of capital to shareholders through share repurchases at attractive levels. We also continued to make modest share repurchases at the beginning of the Q3 . We remain in a strong capital position despite significant mark-to-market losses in the first half of 2022. Our investment portfolio remains high quality, and we expect to earn back the losses in coming quarters. As we head into the wind season, we are not planning additional share repurchases in the Q3 . As Kevin said, we believe that we are in a position of strength in the current macroeconomic environment and will benefit from supply and demand imbalances in both property and casualty and specialty.

We have a strong balance sheet and are keeping our powder dry to capitalize on potential underwriting opportunities, as we believe this is the best way to maximize long-term value creation for our shareholders. I'll now shift to our three drivers of profit, starting with underwriting income, which showed $316 million. This reflects strong performance across both segments, a normal level of expenses, and favorable development that is mostly shared with our joint venture partners. In short, there were no significant one-off items driving these favorable results. We grew overall gross premiums written by 18%, and net premiums written by 23%. Growth was driven by the casualty and specialty segment, but property also grew on both a gross and net basis. The overall combined ratio was 78%, which increased by six percentage points compared to the Q2 of 2021.

A little more than half of this increase relates to mix shift in our underwriting portfolio. Casualty and specialty and other property now make up a larger portion of our portfolio. This business is less volatile than our property catastrophe class of business, but it also carries higher attritional loss ratios and expense ratios, which are more visible in low cat quarters. The remainder of the variance relates to a higher level of cat activity this quarter, combined with lower favorable development. Cat activity in Q2 2022 was above the Q2 ten-year average, while Q2 2021 was close to average. Moving to our property segment, where we reported a combined ratio of 58% and favorable development of six percentage points. We only retained about a third of this favorable development, as the remainder was shared with our joint venture partners.

As a result, it was not a material contributor to our bottom line results. Property gross premiums written increased by $35 million or 3%, and net premiums written increased by $85 million or 11%. The growth in the quarter was driven by property catastrophe and is an excellent example of our ability to employ our gross to net strategy. As we found attractive opportunities to grow at the mid-year, we were able to share more risk with our joint venture partners, particularly DaVinci, Upsilon and Vermeer. We continue to retain about one-third of property catastrophe gross premiums written, with the balance being ceded through traditional retro and our joint ventures. The other property book continued to perform well and within our expectations. We reported an 83% combined ratio and current accident year loss ratio of 52%.

This included about $9 million or 3 percentage points from floods in South Africa. Other property attritional losses have generally been running below 50%, which is consistent with our expectations for this business. Other property gross and net premiums written were roughly flat to the Q2 of last year. We continue to find cat-exposed E&S business attractive and are growing premium through rate increases. Consistent with last quarter, this growth is being offset by non-renewals of certain attritional quota share deals that do not meet our return hurdles. Net premium earned for other property has been running around $340 million per quarter for the first half of the year, and we anticipate a similar amount per quarter on average for the remainder of the year. The other property acquisition cost ratio of 29% was slightly higher than expected due to a few one-off items.

Generally, we expect this ratio to be around 28%. Moving on to casualty and specialty, where we reported strong results. Gross premiums written were up 37%, and net premiums written were up 38%, with notable growth in professional liability and financial lines. The growth in financial lines relates predominantly to mortgage deals that can take up to 7 years to be fully reflected in our net premiums earned. Year to date, net premiums earned are about $1.7 billion, up 44%. For the second half of the year, we are also projecting approximately $1.7 billion in net premiums earned for a total of about $3.4 billion for the year.

Our combined ratio of 94% improved by 4 percentage points from the Q2 of 2021, driven by improvements in the current accident year loss ratio and acquisition expense ratio. Now moving on to our second driver of profit, fee income, which was $34 million in total for the Q2 . Management fees were relatively stable to the comparative quarter, driven by an overall reduction in Upsilon and structured reinsurance products, mostly offset by an increase in the size of DaVinci, Premier, Medici, and Fontana. This is the Q1 where we have started to accrue management fees on Fontana, our new casualty specialty joint venture vehicle. Fontana's management fees are based on net earned premium and will take several quarters to fully ramp up. In the Q2 , performance fees continued to be impacted by a deficit related to 2021 cat events.

We have now largely earned out of this deficit and expect performance fees to pick up in the Q3 as long as there are no significant cat events. Overall, we shared $49 million of our net income, which includes $124 million of our operating income with partners in our joint ventures, as reflected in our redeemable non-controlling interest. The difference between those two numbers is the operating figure does not include $75 million in mark-to-market and foreign exchange losses attributable to our joint ventures. The mark-to-market losses primarily relate to DaVinci and Fontana, while the foreign exchange losses relate to Medici. Turning now to our third driver of profit, investment income, where we are starting to see the benefits of interest rate increases in our net investment income.

It was up 33% on a managed basis and 19% on a retained basis compared to the Q2 of 2021. We anticipate continued growth in our net investment income. While a retained net investment income yield is 2.2%, the current yield to maturity is almost double at 4.1%, and we expect to realize much of this benefit relatively quickly as the Fed increases interest rates and we turn over the portfolio. The significant increases in U.S. interest rates drove $654 million in mark-to-market losses in our investment portfolio, principally in our fixed maturity portfolio. $576 million of those losses were retained and drove the difference between our net and operating income, as well as the decline in our tangible book value per common share.

Turning to our expenses in foreign exchange, our direct expense ratio, which is the sum of our operational and corporate expenses divided by net premiums earned, was 6%, which is flat to the comparable quarter. While operational expenses were up in the quarter, the operational expense ratio also stayed flat at 5%. It was a volatile quarter for foreign exchange. We reported a $51 million foreign exchange loss, which was driven by large movements of the euro, pound, and yen against the dollar and is not included in operating income. The loss had three components. First, $21 million relates to hedges on behalf of Medici investors. This is completely offset in non-controlling interest and has no bottom line impact on us. Second, $24 million relates to a one-time adjustment regarding treatment of certain foreign exchange exposures.

Finally, $6 million relates to basis risk inherent in our overall hedging strategy. Finally, I'd like to call your attention to the enhancements we've made to our financial supplement. Our goal was to provide our investors with additional disclosure to help better understand our business and three drivers of profit. Among other changes, we have provided more granularity on premiums, including the impact of reinstatements, have highlighted the operational component of NCI, and have provided significant detail on our retained investment portfolio.

We hope you find the enhancements helpful, and if you have any questions, please give Keith a call. In conclusion, we have reported excellent results with an 18% operating return on equity and solid underwriting performance across both segments. We are in a strong capital position with plenty of dry powder to take advantage of opportunities. Finally, we continue to see positive momentum across each of our three drivers of profit, which we believe will make our financial results increasingly attractive and resilient to natural catastrophe volatility. With that, I'll turn it back to Kevin.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Thanks, Bob. As usual, I'll divide my comments between our casualty and specialty and property segments. The Q2 was an active renewal cycle with a busy period in casualty and specialty and the June 1 and July 1 renewals in property. Beginning with our casualty and specialty segment, we are pleased to report that it was a solid quarter across the board with robust top-line growth and accident year loss ratio running as expected and favorable prior year development. This resulted in a combined ratio of just under 94% and $52 million of underwriting profit. This is a good result in line with our current expectations and one we believe we can continue to build upon. In our traditional casualty book, we are seeing reduced overcapacity on the best deals, as well as reduced pressure on ceding commissions.

These trends are in response to underlying rate moderation and general inflationary fears, and we expect them to persist and drive bottom-line profitability. Market conditions in the specialty book continue to improve, driven by uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine war and concerns related to cyber risk. Cyber has presented an ongoing opportunity with demand consistently exceeding supply and rates up significantly. We have been underwriters of cyber risk for many years and are focused on prudently growing with partners that we think are the best underwriters. Our financial lines business is also facing an improving market, and over the last few quarters, we have found multiple attractive opportunities to grow, predominantly in the U.S. mortgage space. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have placed around $11 billion in limit into the reinsurance market so far this year.

This is about the same volume as for all of 2021, which was a record issuance at the time. We are also finding opportunities in the US PMI space, where our role as a lead market helps us drive structure and pricing. We think the mortgage business is attractively priced given the economic backdrop. We assumed this portfolio at a particularly attractive moment due to the embedded low mortgage rates and significant increases in home equity. We are given further confidence by the fact that over 95% of our mortgage portfolio is fixed rate and 95% is owner occupied. Overall, we have written almost $ half a billion of gross premiums in our financial lines business so far this year, double what we wrote during the same time frame last year. Shifting now to property.

As anticipated, the June 1 renewals in Florida were dislocated, with continued upward rate momentum driven by reduced reinsurer and third-party appetite, limited retro capacity, and severe financial distress at many domestic Florida insurers. At an industry level, rate increases in Florida averaged 10%-30%, with pricing particularly challenged in the lower layers. We have been reducing our exposure to Florida over the last five years and currently only provide material support to six domestic insurers. That said, decreased exposure to Florida domestics is not the same thing as decreased exposure to Florida hurricanes. Southeast wind remains the peak risk in our portfolio. What has changed is that we have moved away from Florida domestic companies to more regional and nationwide programs and have increasingly taken Southeast wind risk through our other property book.

Overall, at the midyear renewals, we decided to hold our PMLs flat while taking the benefit of increased rate. More broadly across the U.S., we saw a significant increase in demand midyear, with about $5 billion of new limit purchased. This was a mixture of midyear renewals and some January 1 clients coming back to buy additional limit. As a result, favorable pricing continued into July 1, with non-loss impacted business rates up roughly 10%-20% risk adjusted.

Loss impacted programs were up more, in some cases greater than 50% risk adjusted. Internationally, renewals in Australia were dislocated because of losses over the last year. European business also experienced rate increases, although at a more moderate pace. In other property, we also achieved strong rate increases consistent with last quarter. We continued to optimize the other property portfolio and chose to non-renew a few large deals.

We are closely monitoring meteorological conditions as we head into the third and Q4 . As always, RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences has provided valuable information to help us understand the climate dynamics likely to influence the remainder of the year. We are expecting another active hurricane season, and our wildfire outlook is elevated due to a drought in the Western US. Closing now with our capital partners business. As you recall, last quarter we launched our casualty specialty joint venture, Fontana Re. It is performing well so far, and we expect it will bring material capacity to our customers, diversifying risk to our capital partners and attractive fee income to our shareholders. Across all our joint ventures this quarter, underlying performance was strong. The cat bond market continues to be an attractive market, and as a result, Medici's assets under management are up 25% so far this year.

In conclusion, we delivered a strong quarter with robust premium growth and an up 18% operating return on equity. Looking forward, market volatility and anticipated improvements in underwriting conditions should provide us with ample opportunities to grow profitably and continue to build the foundations for long-term shareholder value. Thanks. With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you may do so by pressing star two. We remind you to please unmute your line when introduced, and if possible, pick up your handset for optimal sound quality. In the interest of time, we will ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We'll now take our first question from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. My first question on the capital side of things, you guys mentioned that you wanted to have, you know, some dry powder to capitalize on opportunities as they emerge. Does that imply that you guys are gonna be on the sidelines with buyback until there is more clarity on, you know, the January one renewals? How should we think about the timing and when you guys, you know, might consider returning to buying back your shares?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yeah, thanks for the question, Elyse. It's Robert. Hope you're doing well today. Yes, in my comments, I did indicate we're not going to buy any more shares back in the third quarter, and we'll keep a careful eye on the Q4 and how we see the opportunities developing for the one-one renewal. In short, dry powder, it's better deployed into the business than returned. Highest return value.

Elyse Greenspan
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay, thanks. My second question, you know, Kevin, you know, you guys said, right, that you guys pulled back in Florida, but Southeast wind, right, remains the peak portfolio. How is the net exposure to Florida this year compared to last year? Of the reinsurance treaties that you have with the Florida domestics, are there termination provisions in the event if Citizens is downgraded below A by Demotech? Were you guys also successful in efforts to obtain upfront payments?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Let me break it down. With regard to the PMLs, across property and other property, we kept the Southeast wind PML roughly flat from a dollar amount from where we were last year. With that, we're getting a lot more rate and a lot more margin in the business, even adjusting for inflation and climate change. We feel really good about the portfolio, but we decided to hold risk levels relatively consistent to where they were last year. A few accounts that we have, I think I mentioned we have six major relationships with Florida domestics.

These are companies we think are better positioned than most in the Florida market, and it's ones in which we've had long-standing relationships. There are provisions for cancellation. Not each of them are the same. We did not get upfront payment on the premium. We've known these guys for a long time. We're pretty comfortable with the portfolio we've built down there.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Jimmy Bhullar with J.P. Morgan.

Jimmy Bhullar
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hey, good morning. First, just a question on the pricing environment. Your comments are obviously pretty positive. I was just wondering if you're seeing any of your competitors or the market as a whole, soften up on rates a little bit just given the fact that interest rates are higher and that's benefiting investment income?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

No. If anything, we're seeing continued discipline from competitors, not only with price, but with terms and conditions. I think we've seen some contraction, particularly on the cat-related capacity side, where there's increasing reluctance for competitors to put cat capacity out, which is helping support pricing. Then generally across, as I mentioned, within casualty and specialty, programs are less oversubscribed than they were last year. That's, again, pushing more power to the reinsurance market.

Jimmy Bhullar
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. On the non-cat side, have you seen any changes in cession rates by any of your clients?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Not meaningfully, but they're not increasing. We're seeing on well-performing accounts, we're seeing cession rates be relatively flat. On accounts that need some remediation work, there is increasing pressure on cession rates.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Thanks. Good morning. A couple of quick ones. One, Kevin and Bob, can you give us a sense in terms of with the one-third of the cat premium you're retaining, where the significant geographic exposures are?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

It's the peak risks around the world. The number one peak risk that we manage is Atlantic hurricane, and within Atlantic hurricane is specifically Southeast hurricane. When we think about that's where our capital decisions and that's what's dominating the tail of the distribution, even with the larger casualty and specialty portfolio. It's the mix has been pretty consistent with what it's been for several years. You know, the major exposure regions around the world, California earthquake, North Europe, then followed by Japan.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Okay, perfect. Second, in casualty and specialty, I guess the year-over-year loss ratio improvement slowed a little bit. Is that cat activity in that segment or something else?

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

No, that's. You're talking about just the current accident year loss rate that we have in there.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Yes.

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

It's a blended rate between our casualty specialty credit. Moved around a little bit, but we did take an adjustment for Third side this quarter once the settlement was announced that was gonna be paid. Small management, less than a point.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Okay, thanks. I think.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

There are sides.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Right. No, understood. And I think this is mostly an accounting question, but if I look at the operational expenses in the cat segment, they're up in the mid-30% range on a year-over-year basis. I was hoping you could talk us through that.

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

It's mainly the fees that come through that offset expenses that are reflected in our underwriting expenses. That's a lion's share of it. There's also been some investments that we've made in the property cat modeling that Kevin has talked about.

Meyer Shields
Managing Director, KBW

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

Ryan Tunis
Research Analyst, Autonomous Research

Hey, thanks. Good morning. First question for Kevin. Could you give us some sense of, you know, how much better would pricing have had to have been at mid-year for you to have wanted to increase your Florida PMLs?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yep, I'm just thinking. When I think about the-

Elyse Greenspan
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Oh, sorry.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Sorry about that. With the book that was renewing and some of the issues in Florida. The reason I'm hesitating, I'm not sure what rate would have enticed us to put more capacity out. I think had there been more nationwide programs and with the rates that we were seeing, we were pretty close to wanting to put out more. Within the whole organization on balance, we did put out more limit, but more of it was shared with our partners than kept on our retained balance sheets. I would say we're pretty close to where rates should be for us to wanna begin to think about adding to PML. Florida specifically being a different story because of the issues within the domestic market there. For Southeast wind, I would say we're pretty close.

Ryan Tunis
Research Analyst, Autonomous Research

Understood. Thanks. Just to follow up, from a loss ratio perspective, the mortgage business you're adding in Casualty & Specialty, is that? It sounds like that's a decent mix shift. I'm assuming the loss ratios are quite a bit lower than the casualty business. Is that the right way to think about it?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yes. Yeah. The credit business generally, specialty is generally outperforming casualty currently from a expected ultimate developed loss ratio. Within that, the mortgage portfolio is kind of leading the pack.

Ryan Tunis
Research Analyst, Autonomous Research

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

Josh Shanker
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thank you. Question on, you know, you did mention a little bit, but obviously one of your profile competitors said they don't wanna be in the property reinsurance market anymore, and property reinsurance has increasingly become a negative word for a lot of your competitors. To what extent do you measure the amount of capacity available in the market has declined over the past 12 months?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

We definitely measure the amount of limit purchased, and we can measure that quite precisely. It is a little bit more difficult to manage how much supply is uncommitted to the market. You know, we look to see and from the demand side, how many deals are repriced, how many deals are we getting preferred private terms on? Because that's an indication that the capacity is at pretty close to equilibrium with the demand.

I would say right now the sense that we have is that supply is decreased, but it's pretty closely matched to where the market is buying. I think with increased demand at 1:1, we're gonna see further rate pressure come into the market and reinsurance-led pricing, which we haven't seen for a long time, or at least that's what I'm optimistic for.

Josh Shanker
Managing Director, Bank of America

When I look at the premium ceded in your P&L, and then I also look at the fee income you're generating on third-party vehicles, it seems like there's been a lot less third-party retro purchase and a lot more first-party retro. To what extent is that the pricing has changed to the point where you wanna be buying it from your own book? To what extent is it that just the third party capacity just isn't out there in the market?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Just so I answer your question, third party mean outward ceded and first party means like.

Josh Shanker
Managing Director, Bank of America

You mean ceded to one of your own sponsored vehicles as opposed to ceded to a non-RenRe related party?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Okay. Yeah. Ceded reinsurance has become more expensive, and with that, we are looking carefully. We've got some long-term partnership deals that continue to support the portfolio, that we have more straight excess of loss. We've been very successful buying a similar program to support the London business. Some of the other portfolios, we have reduced the amount of third party outward ceded that we purchase just from a capacity and from a pricing standpoint. With that, you know, the flexibility of our platform, we have added more capital to some of our joint ventures and allowed them to participate on the risk that otherwise would have been written and protected and limited. Excuse me, RenRe Limited. The answer to your question is we are buying less third party, and we are sharing more with partners.

Josh Shanker
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay. Thank you.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. Our next question will come from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Good morning. Quick numbers question first, I think. Property expense ratio, you talked about some of the reasons why that was elevated, a mix shift and then some other nuances there. Any way you can quantify the magnitude of that second piece of nuances, specifically the lower amount of managed capital that impacted the expense ratio?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

If I understand your question, you're talking about the performance and management fees coming through as an offset to it, less of it coming through. Management fees have been relatively stable.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Correct. Yes.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Management fees remain relatively stable. The performance fees come off against that. You can do the math on it. I don't have the number exactly on what the reduction here is in front of me, but that would be less of an offset this year than there was last year. We've also made, like I said, some investments in the property cat space, and also in the other property space to understand the risk better.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Bob, because of the mix shift component of that, some of the comments with more other property versus property cat, but comments about kind of opportunities on property cat, should that mean that maybe we could see a little bit more of a benefit to the expense ratio going forward than otherwise we might?

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

Yeah, that's fair to say.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

A lot of the other property portfolio is written on a proportional basis, so with that, there's much higher acquisition costs. If, you know, our property cat is a pretty consistent portfolio with much lower acquisition costs. If we weight more towards property cat, the overall property segment expense ratio should decline.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Good. Thank you. The second question relates to the reserving process. Kevin, you talked about a little more due diligence because of inflation. I guess it's another angle on the reserving piece is I'm curious if you've seen any kind of backlog or on claims payment or slower payment pattern at all in either of your segments that it leads to kind of a bigger body of claims that are out there than otherwise is the case that could also impact the inflation. Have you seen any kind of slowdown in payment patterns is the question.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yeah, that's a great question, and it's very hard to quantify. We believe that some of the good news we're observing in looking at our reserves warrant additional conservatism because of the COVID-related slowdown in the courts and potentially in processing. We believe that there's a slowdown, again, very difficult to measure it, but with that, we are being even more cautious and recognizing good news in our reserves.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Do you think that's more pronounced, that slowdown, that's hard to recognize, is it more pronounced in one of the segments than the other?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

You cut out for the last thing.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oh, sorry. Yeah. Do you think that the slowdown that's hard to quantify, is that more pronounced in one of your segments than the other?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

I think that's difficult. I would say the longer tail lines is where we're most worried about it, so it's something we're probably more concerned in casualty and specialty than in property. Within the casualty specialty classes, I would say we're equally concerned among most of the classes, certainly in casualty.

Michael Phillips
Managing Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Cool. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question will come from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First question is one that I actually asked about last quarter, and I apologize that I'm still a little confused over it, and that's with regards to the buybacks. I think you've said in the past you're tying the buybacks to net earnings. That said, there is a little bit of a transitory component there. Namely, you had some marks on interest rates that I guess you're expecting will reverse and therefore you can continue with buybacks. I just wanna make sure that I'm thinking about the moving parts correctly. Is it tied to net earnings? Is it tied to temporary net earnings? Is it tied to operating earnings? How should I think about buybacks?

Robert Qutub
EVP and CFO, RenaissanceRe

There's two parts to that one, Yaron. One is we had tied it to income. We declared it as net income. We did have temporary differences, but we see it as an opportunity too. It's not an absolute test, but we did buy shares back when we did have a mark-to-market loss. We tried to clarify that on the call. More importantly, what we're looking at is deploying it into the best opportunity. Right now we're looking in the macroeconomic environment, we see that opportunity as deploying it into the business.

In the absence of doubt, we will not be buying any more shares back in the Q3 , which I outlined here earlier. We'll be looking cautiously at the Q4 to see if those opportunities continue to develop at the 1-1 renewal process that Kevin feels optimistic about. I hope that's clear in terms of our guidance. There is no single metric that we have out there. It's where is the best opportunity for us to deploy it and create long-term shareholder value.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

We're excited about what we're seeing in the markets and preserving capital to be able to deploy it as we approach year-end, and we think it's the smartest thing to do right now.

Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. In terms of the opportunities you're seeing in the market, maybe tying this back to one of your competitors' decisions to pull out of the property reinsurance, do you see that as offering you additional opportunities in the casualty and specialty book as well?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yeah. I'm generally pretty optimistic right now where the market's going, and the way I think about it is I look at what is the drivers of our results through the lens of kind of the three areas of profit Bob highlighted. If we take our underwriting, we're still seeing very strong casualty rates. We have great access to the best business, and rate is continuing to be above trend. Looking at what's happened to the yield curve and the new money rates we're seeing on the investment portfolio, lots of opportunity for us to continue to grow investment income and have that be a major contributor to earnings. Our fee business is continuing to grow and doing great.

I think there is a little bit of reticence among third-party capital investors, but there's been a flight to quality, and we're certainly the winner of that. From the property perspective, we're continuing to see new demand come to the market. We're seeing increased reluctance from competitors to put out capacity. With that, we're seeing strong rate change, which we think will persist. When I break down the things that are currently embedded in the things that drive our earnings, there's no reason for me to think that they're gonna do anything but persist and probably get even more beneficial to our strategy.

Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

I appreciate that. I guess what I'm trying to get to, though, is ultimately, I guess there is a view in the market that says that you have to be able to compete in both property and casualty and reinsurance in order to compete effectively. Do you think that's a dynamic that could play in your favor, considering the pullback from some of your competitors?

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

We definitely benefit from providing coverage across all lines at scale to our cedents. I think a lot of times a buyer looks to how much property cat they're going to purchase and starts thinking about their cessions first from a property cat lens. That should additionally put us in the most preferred position going into year-end as well.

Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Kevin O'Donnell for any additional or closing remarks.

Kevin O'Donnell
President and CEO, RenaissanceRe

Thank you for joining today's call. We're pleased to deliver the strong quarter that we did, and hopefully, our comments reflect the optimism we're seeing in the quality of the current portfolio and for what's to come. Thanks again.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the RenaissanceRe Q2 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

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