Bunny show, so you're just going to ask questions.
That's true.
So you run out. A little closer. All right. Here, I'll just hold the damn thing. There you go.
Before I start, are there any questions from anyone in the audience? No? Okay. We are in what has been a relatively difficult Class 8 truck market in the U.S. this year.
For some folks, for sure.
For some folks. Maybe just give your thoughts on the overall market right now and kind of how you see the next 12 months on the new sales side.
Okay. We'll just take Class 8, I guess, what you're referring to, right? Okay. Well, we've got a 24-plus month of freight recession, right? You say, "What are you talking about?" Well, all you got to do is go look at the earnings reports for the last two years of what the public truckload guys have had to deal with, right? And also really the whole truckload sector. Fortunately for us, that's not everything we do, but it's been a. I would tell you, we've still been able to, from a truck sales perspective, we'll end up being off probably close to what the market is, 12%-13%, but overall on the Class 8 side. But at the same time, we've weathered it because of the diversity I think we have.
Our vocational business, like everybody's told you today, is up, and I can get into certain sectors of it if you'd like. The most important thing for us is most of our gross, well, the majority, 60-plus% of our gross profit comes from parts and service, so that's a much more stable piece. Right now, we are. I would tell you this, from an over-the-road perspective, it has been on the bottom. It's been bobbing, remember, I deal with these people on a daily basis, and it has been bobbing on the bottom. I think, judging by a little bit of activity we've had, we're starting to see a little bit the last six, seven weeks. I know our order intake, for Rush anyway, has been better, for sure. And even in some of the space, even in the over-the-road truckload space, not a lot, but a little better, right?
I think you're seeing people talking about, even though forget the earnings report or what Q3 was, but sure, everybody feels we've been feeling like we're on the bottom, but I think we're going to start seeing some gradual uptake. Now, the pre-buy that everyone was expecting that was going to start here right now, well, that's not really going to happen. I mean, as of last week, I could still get you a truck in Q4 that we're in, okay, in December. But we are seeing more activity. I think it's just, I think it'll pick up. Pre-buy, in my mind, probably if, when it does, if it comes to pass, we're supposed to have already started sometime mid-year next year. I expect everybody to be by that time. What you're doing is you're just compressing it.
You're making it smaller and tighter and higher and faster or as fast as they can supply it anyway when we get to it in 2026. So.
Just to educate the audience about the pre-buy, can you just let everybody know?
Sure, you bet. It's all the EPA, it's EPA's regulations coming in January 1, 2027. They've been going back and forth. CARB did that already in California in January 1 of this year. I'm hoping 2027, the rest of the country doesn't look a lot like what it looks like in California right now because it's quite a bit, it's quite a bit of a mess out there when it comes to customers trying to understand and meet, and meet mostly people did pre-buy some. We brought a bunch of inventory in at the end of last year. We'll be dealing with that across the whole country. The regulations will line up.
Currently, those regulations that CARB has that some states follow, and I'm not going to get into all the technical aspects of it because that's not what I'm here for, but the EPA, everything will line up when we get to January 1 of 2027, and we'll have one set of rules to work with. But what it'll do is it's going to cost, oh, for diesel trucks, it's going to cost, depends on who you're talking to, 15,000 or more. Half of that's tied up in warranty because where you used to only say warranty the after treatment for like one year, you can do it for 10, okay? And you're going to have new after treatment systems, and everybody's got a different one. I'm not technical. I'll sit here and watch my folks know a lot more about it than I do.
It's going to be a market upsetter. And then you're going to have to buy so many EVs depending on how customers are as it gradually ramps up as you go forward. Of course, we don't have any really to buy the volumes that they're asking. So that's some of the problem you're running into in California. People are out buying credits from, sometimes people are buying credits from Rivian and this that and the other, so they can sell diesel trucks. But anyway, that's what we'll be dealing with.
Going back to where we are now, vocational has been a great story for you in particular. Talk about maybe some of the strength in those markets or the lack of weakness and how long that can potentially last.
For sure, it's going to run through 2025, right? I mean, there's no question, and should run out further than that. I mean, some of the things we do have nothing to do with the infrastructure bill or anything else. They have to do with business focus, right? If I sat here and told you, Mario, that right now we sell 25% of all the garbage trucks in the United States, Rush does. So it's a big upside for us. We deal with all the big players. We do it through service, right? We do it because we service them everywhere. I've got mobile technicians and stuff all around the country taking care of it. We understand their business. A lot of people don't want to deal with a garbage truck, but we love it because it consumes more parts and service and they never trade them.
It's a 15-year asset for most of these folks. So that has been a very, we're up 50% Low Cab Forward sales this year, okay? Trying to help offset some of that over-the-road and small carrier business. Because we don't deal with a lot of the big, big public carriers. Only a couple, and ours is much more diversified across that, but the construction business is strong. The mixer business is strong. All those across our whole network. We were only limited in 2024 because of transmissions on the 3,000, 4,000, 3,000. We were sold out by June, right, for the rest of the year, so. And a lot of that goes into, yes, sir. I was hoping I couldn't get by without having a question.
Yeah. You know what? I'd ask you. So this cycle is no different to all the others except you're better in repair. So let me look at.
Sure.
Be the customer. Something's going to happen on Tuesday night or something and some tax issues.
Or we may not know for a week. Who knows?
Whatever the dynamics are. I used to buy a truck from you. I'd be able to take 100% Bonus Depreciation. It's down to 60%. Okay? What would you like to see? What was the buyer thinking about in terms of their cash flow, whether it's an owner-operator or a fleet, or in terms of what would they like to see from a tax structure or depreciation, and are they waiting for something?
I think you hit it on the head, what they'd like to see. But I'll be honest with you, Mario, right now, most of them are just trying to pay the bills, okay? And I'm talking about the small guys you mentioned right there. You've got to understand that we're still. Capacity didn't come out of the market, but it is coming out. Not as fast as it should. It is coming out. Typically, they would be focused on that. Right now, they're focused on trying to survive, right? Freight rates were down 20-something% from where they were in 2021. They were down 25%. You look at the ORs on some of these guys. I mean, they're upside down, right? Where guys that were running 85, 90 ORs are running 100. That means they're not making much money. They're not making any money.
So obviously, the faster the depreciation, everybody would love it, right? But to be honest with you, I don't hear a lot of conversation about that right now, okay? It's more about what are we going to do right now and taking care of getting our business back in line. I would imagine by next year, we'll have a lot more conversation around that, to be honest with you.
Oh, I'm sorry. We have a question over here.
Rush, then a couple of the earnings calls from the large trucking companies, they commented that they plan to pretty much stay with their CapEx for new trucks. I'm kind of curious, how do you look at the replacement cycle now coming out of COVID, the delay that it caused for a couple of years because of supply issues? Are we kind of moving back into a more normalized replacement cycle?
No.
But still ways away from that?
We've been in it all year, right? What happened the first part of this year, manufacturers overproduced. Inventory levels right now are the highest they've ever been, okay? I think there's like, in two months, it's come down a total of 2,000 units, so 89,000, 87,000, and I don't remember exactly the truck and tractor breakdown. That is the most units because manufacturers kept producing like they always do and overproduced, so right now, we're in that situation, but you said, well, people said they're going to maintain—they are. That's what they believe now, but if their business gets back in line, I promise you, they're going to wake up. That's where it's getting condensed. There will be some type of pre-buy. It's just a matter of how much and how long a timeframe we'll have to do it in.
But right now, as Mario was asking that question of his, they're focused on getting their business back. I expect their businesses to be better. I expect them to start getting rate increases by mid-year next year. And then they're going to be able to focus, if they start making more money, they're going to focus on not accelerating everything, but there will be some type of acceleration of 2027 and a little bit of 2027's business trying to move it forward, right? Because remember, give me a new after treatment. I remember when SCR came out in 2010, they were clogging up, and we were having issues everywhere. You've got people who are going to be double treating and doing this and double dosing. So people are going to do some different. There will be some type of pre-buy. If I'm answering what you wanted me to answer for you.
Rusty, when you're talking to your OEMs, tomorrow we have the election. Tariffs may be an issue, and a lot of Class 8 production has now moved to Mexico. Any thoughts on or concerns as far as affordability from a customer basis, or do you think this will be something that gets negotiated around?
I think it'll get to some degree. How about that? There's no question it's going to have some effect, but I'm not good enough to tell you. I don't have enough insight here to tell you, and I'm not going to tell you if it's something I don't know. I'm not going to take a stab in the dark. But obviously, it'll have some effect. I've got to believe. But I think reshoring and nearshoring, I mean, that's a good thing overall. I really think it's going to continue to be a good thing. As far as how it affects the supply side, I'm not the expert. You've got a lot of experts around here. They could probably answer it better than I can. But we'll deal with it as it comes. The good thing is, I'm going to get back to Rush.
We've weathered it because of our parts and service business, the way we manage expenses. You've seen the returns of the organization here this year, so.
One thing you are an expert on are the trucks themselves, TRATON, formerly the Navistar brand, not now Volkswagen's arm. Talked about growing their International brand share by a point a year for the next five years. Certainly seems ambitious on the surface. Maybe talk about how the product is being accepted and how they get there with your help.
You got to step back and go further back. This man owned 10% of it himself. You got to remember, there was no investment, right? Went for years with no investment other than a bad 13-liter engine about three times. But there really wasn't a lot of investment in the product itself when you talk about the tractor itself. When they took it over three years ago, I don't think they really realized where it was at from that perspective. They had to come up with a proprietary engine, right? They've got their S13. And I will say this, the S13s that we've demoed and the few we've sold that are running out there, and they've been running. We're not where we need to be from a mileage perspective, but the fuel mileage on them is outstanding. It's the best I've seen on anything.
So you hope that holds. You hope the engine itself. So hopefully, but they've got a lot of legacy from perspective, people's perception to overcome, okay? But putting a proprietary engine was important because for a while, really, they could have said they had the A26 and before that, the N13, but they didn't really have something that was going to be sustainable long-term, at least as long as diesels are out. They do now, I do believe, knock on wood here, that it maintains what we've seen so far with it. But then they've got to invest in a cab. And the new cab, I think we're looking at 2027, okay, before the new cab gets here. So I firmly believe they're going to get the share back. Not so sure about the timeline, okay? But they need to get that back.
And I always tell everybody, that's the biggest tailwinds I've got in the company is if they ever get share back. Well, I won't participate with them, right? They're down at 10% share, which is ridiculous. And you would hope that they get back into the mid-teens, 15%, 16%, 70% of Class 8, and then I get their medium-duty share back up. But it's not an add water and stir thing, right? Because it was lacked investment over time. Troy just had it making it survive. That's all he was doing until he could get it sold. And they have it now, and they'll make the investments. And then there's a learning curve. North America is not Europe, okay? And so there's also a learning curve there. But I have all the confidence in the world they'll get there.
I think it's one of the great opportunities, not only for your company, but also for your stock, if that were to be the case, because presumably they're not exactly, share has to come from somewhere, right? It's probably less coming from a Peterbilt than from.
Yeah, I mean, if you look at what PACCAR has done, go back 20 years, they were combined 20%, okay? 22-23 years ago. Now they're about 30%-31%, right? They're slow getting share as they go. People always say, "Well, where's Navistar going to get the share?" I said, "Well, I guess we're going to find out." But excuse me, International. But I truly expect they have long-term plans, but it takes this investment, right? It's not an add water and stir. This money buys a market. And I don't think that's where they're at right now.
Yep. Let's go back into the current market. You can control only what you can control. However, Class 8 inventory at an all-time high level, you're in much better shape. How do you deal with that in terms of the market that's maybe not behaving as well as you are? And how do you compete?
Well, I mean, I can go back to this year. What we've done this year at the performance of the company has been in spite of some big headwinds. We had more order fallout. And what I'm talking about is people that ordered trucks and didn't take them. That's where a lot of this inventory came from. It's out there. Well, we did start managing and making sure I had it marked to market at the end of Q4 last year, okay? And then we just saw it accelerate really through the first part of the year, just every month. When you look at what true stock inventory was, I was taking more in from order fallouts than I was selling. So our inventory levels got elevated.
We were making. I made sure inside of the earnings that we had the proper values, even on the new equipment, because if you're only turning so much, you've got to make sure it's right. We feel good about where we're headed and at. We already turned the curve about 90 days ago from Rush's perspective and bringing it back down, okay? Overall, I think there's a lot of inventory still out there that's going to have to be disposed of. I said it was going from like 89,000 to 87,000 in 60 days. We'll be, right? A big decrease, right? Now, understand in that number, they can't tell what is true stock inventory and what we call in process of delivery. Because there's always a flow piece that's in there.
But you know it's still elevated with real inventory that's not sold that will have to be disposed of, right? So that's just an issue to deal with. I feel good that we're in good shape currently and hopefully be able to take advantage of it as we move into 2025.
A big part of that being able to sell new trucks is to also handle the used side. Maybe talk about what you're seeing on the used truck side from both a customer perspective and how you're moving those trucks.
Sure. Well, you got to go back, step back a little bit. We went two years really with used trucks started falling apart spring of 2022. And typical 1.5-2%, you're depreciating 5% a month, right? And it's finally gotten to where the difference in values, it has to stop eventually. Because new truck prices have gotten so high, used truck got so depressed that that spread is huge, right? It got huge. So we're back to more normalized depreciation, but we're still undervalued probably to where it should be. And so we've had a really nice used truck year, to be honest with you. But we had to get it in line last year. We took inventory levels down almost 50%, right? Because it's all about turns.
When you're in an environment that's depreciating much faster than it typically does, you've got to be turning quick or you're never going to catch it in used, right? So we've got our turns down to well under 90 days, right? 70-some-odd days. Well, that's where we needed to be. So we've had actually a really nice year. We'll be three times the return on used this year that we were last year, right? So I'm real proud of our folks on the used side. Not that it's huge because it's not like a new truck number, but it's helped offset. Margins have been extremely good. And so, but we're managing it right. There's still, in fact, I'm out looking for used right now, okay?
If I can find it, we'll buy some used right now because I'm really under-inventoried if I want to continue to do as well as where we're at. We haven't traded for as much as I'd like because we just haven't, but I expect we're going to have that issue to deal with in the future when new truck sales want to pick up.
Harold.
Yes, sir?
I have a question about the work truck market, Class 3 through 6.
Sure.
In this current truck market that we're in, have you noticed any changes amongst the fleet owners with their electrification agendas?
Not yet, okay? There's a one-off here and a one-off there. But we have not seen any volume. We've probably sold as many electric, but you're talking about handfuls here. You're not talking about big, big numbers. Without naming names, there's a couple larger companies we've done business with. But the small guy, the medium-duty side typically is either a big leasing or small people a lot of times, or people that are getting their goods to market, right? We have yet to really do a lot. I don't think we've got a lot of product to sell that way. That's what's so crazy about these laws coming into effect. They're too fast, right? And they're too expensive. It's hard for people to make sense of it. If you get a few grants here and there, but how sustainable is that long-term, right? We've sold a couple hundred.
That's nothing. I've sold 13,000 medium-duty trucks this year, right? We probably only sold 100 and something on the medium side and 100 and something on the 8 side, right? That's not a whole lot. It's really people that just got some grants and did some stuff. People are learning in California. Right now, people here in the rest of the country are sort of doing this until they have to. Then we'll get a better understanding when folks have to do something, when it's mandatory by the feds, so.
Want to talk about parts and service.
Oh, my favorite service.
We're going to be talking about auto dealers that have more tools at their disposal to capture share of wallet with customers. A lot of that's technology-driven. Maybe talk about some of the tools that you have that you didn't have five, 10 years ago from a service perspective that can lead to greater capture for you of that aftermarket.
We've invested probably a little ahead on the parts side than we are on the service side from an investment, by taking. Look, I'll put our business system up against anybody's, okay? But it was an expensive 10-year process to get it done. But about 2016, 2017, we said, "All right, we got to leverage all this data and turn it into revenue," right? And we've done a really nice job with other tools. And I hate to get into all of it when you're sitting in here. But I think some of the things we have, the connectivity we have with our customer base is different. Remember, the biggest asset we got is that network. We got the largest network out there, right? So you've got to leverage off of that network from a service perspective, right? So we go after these big national accounts.
That's really where our growth has been. It's been through these tools, whether it's what we call Service Connect or whether it's how we manage our technicians and how we, there's so many things that I really like that we've invested millions in that we think allows us to have that connectivity with our customer that's better and also have a relationship. We've got 370 outside parts and service salespeople. Then we have people at the corporate level and this market segment managers at the corporate level. Because we want to touch the big guys. Look, our parts and service business wouldn't be what it is this year if it wasn't for our national account and large customer growth.
We're growing that, even though we're flat, actually a little bit flat to down, a little bit up in revenue, a little bit backwards in growth this year so far, but the small guy, the unassigned accounts, we've been off the last 10-12% year over year. And last year it was 10 or 12% too. So when you compound it, I slowed down a little bit in Q3 to about 9%. Because the comps get easier too, but the tools that we have without me really. I mean, we have a lot of other stuff that we use. But it's really just leveraging off the going after that big national customer. Because look, customers continue to consolidate. You're always going to have small customers.
When you look at our parts and service business and think about 30%, a third of it almost, comes from the unassigned accounts, the smaller people, right? But we really don't know. Well, that's off 20-something% in two years. Yet we've been able to maintain it because we've had growth on the national account side. And that has to do with, I mean, I could rattle off all the accounts, but it's all driven, whether it's by mobile. We continue, I saw you probably going to ask me about that, but we continue to grow that piece of our business. Look, a third of our labor sales are mobile now. A third. I didn't even realize that till earlier this year. I would have thought it would have been 20%, right? But those types of things, going to the customer, keeping connected.
If you want to see, if you got 30 trucks in our shop, punch a button, see every one of them across the country, right? They get updated twice daily, right? We have call centers and things like that, like Mr. Penske back there. They're way better. But okay. Yeah. Yeah. I actually sold them trucks the last two years, if you can believe that. But anyhow, we've got all those call centers and support things, right? Where they have people to call, right? I mean, those just simple types of things. But then leveraging off that network because I can cover more area of the country and then provide that seamless uptime service that people are looking for, right?
It's truly been a holistic approach to how you run your organization. Along with that, and with the little time we have left, you've grown the lease and rental business too as well. And that's now a $350 million revenue business for you. Talk about what that means for you from a strategic benefit. And where do you want to take that business?
Well, all we're doing is picking up the crumbs that this gentleman leaves us back there. But we've got over 10,000 units, not 440,000. But we've got 10,000. Huh? I know. He was in San Antonio last week with me. He flew down to surprise me. And he made sure to tell me. RP was. But anyhow, no, it's a great piece. We returned 18% on that business. So it's just good business for us. We don't do the volumes. We're more leasing than we are rental, okay? But as I—we niche it, probably, you would say. But we are the largest factories and largest Idealease. I love the business, right? And we run it pretty conservatively and get good returns out of it, to be honest.
Nat Gas was going to be a source of potential growth and it really hasn't yet. Maybe thoughts on that market?
Oh, yeah. Well, I remember in 2014 when everybody said it was going to be 12% by 2017. You know, it sat there. Well, it didn't happen, right? I'm still in it. I did a JV with Cummins two years ago. Changed the name to CCFT because I figured they had a little more brand equity than we do. We're building systems. We're profitable. In fact, Steve and I are going to a CCFT board meeting tomorrow in Fort Worth. Going to San Antonio tonight and then go over there in Fort Worth tomorrow. So look, California didn't want anything to do with it. I can sit here and argue all day long about RNG and negative footprint when you use RNG, etc., etc. But it doesn't hit everything everybody wants, right? It didn't hit all the marks on everything. So I don't see it going away.
I think it's going to be a piece of some. They came out with, Cummins came out with a 15-liter engine. Still too damn expensive in my mind. But we're getting a few orders now for it. And obviously, we're big at it also because of our refuse exposure, right? So there's a lot that's still the biggest user of it around. You'll see that start to run towards electric. But look, I had a gentleman with the second largest refuse company speak last week at our leadership conference. And they hope to have maybe 50 units by year-end. Right now, they've got 10 or 12 or 15, I think 15, I think it was. So again, like anything to do with BEV, which is electric vehicles, people are getting way ahead of where we are in reality.
His man over there had sat up there and gave us, like he said, customer Penske Lease out in California, right? Goes and gets the 10 trucks or whatever. Power company comes and tells him to shut it off, or that's it. They can't handle it anymore. And he had the trucks, right? But we're going to get places, just not at the speed people want us to. But leasing, I know I got off on a tangent there.
Oh, that's great.
But yes.
Hey, Rush, I got to ask. Your stock is doing well.
Thank you.
Your balance sheet's great.
Thank you.
Some other.
Something's coming. I'm saying I know.
Are you going to buy other distributors? Would that be a priority in the next 12 months if they're limping along as you think they will?
I don't think they're going to limp too much, to be honest, dealership groups, right? Look, I don't have much. There's not much runway on the PACCAR side, okay? Like one or two little places that they committed. In fact, I'm working on one now. I bought a little one earlier this year. First one in like 10 years. But we still have runway on the international side. But what's it always take? It takes a willing seller, not just a willing buyer. Three years ago, a little less than three years ago, the only buyer that was the second largest group at that time. I have been making phone calls, okay? I don't have anything imminent because I want more territory that I'm not in already to put more touchpoints. And you know I'm not going to tell you anyway, so I'm just rambling here. And so.
It's a good way to wrap it up.
Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Rusty, that's it.
I'm down for you. You realize that, right? But also, I get one day in Vegas before I get out.
Rusty, thank you. Steve, thank you very much. Much appreciated.