Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 27, 2022

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

I'm gonna get started. Good morning, and welcome to the second quarter 2022 earnings release conference call. On the call today are Mike McRoberts, Chief Operating Officer, Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer, Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller, and Michael Goldstone, Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Now, Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

Steve Keller
CFO, Rush Enterprises

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2021, and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

As indicated in our news release, we achieved second quarter revenues of $1.8 billion and net income of $110 million, or $1.92 per diluted share. Earnings per share, excluding the one-time gain related to our acquisition of a controlling interest in Rush Truck Centres of Canada Limited, were $1.75 per diluted share. We are very proud of our accomplishments this quarter. Not only did we achieve record high quarterly profits, we also completed the conversion of our previously acquired Summit Truck Group locations to our SAB business system, acquired an additional 30% of Rush Truck Centres of Canada Limited, repurchased $38.4 million of company stock, and declared a cash dividend of $0.21 per common share, or a 10.5% increase in our dividend and our fifth increase since 2018.

Our results in the second quarter were due primarily to a strong freight demand and healthy consumer spending. New truck production continues to be constrained because of component supply issues, but our Class 8 new truck sales substantially outpaced the industry. Our aftermarket results also significantly outperformed the market due to strong demand from parts and service throughout the quarter. Our results were also positively impacted by 19 locations acquired in the fourth quarter of 2021, as well as 15 locations in Canada through our additional investment in Rush Truck Centres of Canada Limited, whose operating results are now consolidated in our financials. In the aftermarket, our parts, service, and body shop revenues were $598.3 million, up 34.3%, and our absorption ratio was 136.4.

In the second quarter, there was strong widespread demand for parts and service from most market segments. We continue to strategically expand our workforce of service technicians and aftermarket sales professionals throughout our network, including our new locations, extending our reach to large national fleets. We expect supply constraints will continue to impact the industry into 2023, but we believe parts and service demand will remain strong. Due to our network reach and scale of our inventory, along with our partnerships with parts manufacturers, we are better equipped to navigate any industry parts shortages moving forward. With the continued expansion of our workforce of technicians and aftermarket professionals, and by implementing our strategies at our newly acquired locations, we believe our aftermarket results will significantly outpace the market in 2022. Turning to truck sales.

We sold 4,168 new Class 8 trucks, accounting for 6.4% of the total U.S. Class 8 market and 1.7% of the Canada market. While new truck production is still constrained, the Class 8 manufacturers we represent were able to increase production somewhat in the second quarter. We experienced healthy demand for most market segments, particularly over-the-road construction and vocational customers. Our backlog remains strong and we are proud of our Class 8 truck sales results this quarter, especially given a limited number of new trucks available to sell. ACT Research forecasts U.S. Class 8 retail sales to be 253,000 units in 2022, up 11.3% from 2021. In Canada, new Class 8 retail sales to be 29,500, or up 4.9% from 2021.

We believe that because of supply constraints, retail sales of Class 8 trucks have lagged demand by as many as over 100,000 trucks the last couple years. We believe because of this pent-up demand for Class 8 truck sales and the pending changes to emissions guidelines in 2024 and 2027, that the commercial vehicle market will remain strong through 2026. Our Class 4 through 7 new truck sales reached 2,815 units in the second quarter, accounting for 5.1% of the U.S. Class 4 through 7 market and 1.3% of the Canada Class 5 through 7 market. Production capacity remained limited, but we experienced healthy demand from a variety of market segments, including vocational and food and beverage customers.

ACT Research forecasts U.S. Class 4 through 7 retail sales to be 230,000 units in 2022, down 7.7% from 2021. In Canada, Class 5 through 7 retail sales to be 10,250 units, down 22.5% from 2021. Looking ahead, we expect supply constraints on Class 4 through 7 trucks to continue, though some manufacturers may increase production this year. We believe our results will align with the industry in 2022. Our used truck sales reached 1,629 units in the second quarter, down 22.2% over 2021. Overall demand softened for Class 8 on-highway used trucks due to weak spot rates and high diesel prices, putting an increased burden on owner-operators and small fleets.

However, there was still strong used truck demand for medium-duty, flatbed, and vocational energy customers. Used truck values have decreased significantly, and we anticipate they will continue to soften through the year. We are managing our values and inventory and believe we can effectively meet the needs of the market this year. I would like you to know that our lease and rental operations have grown to become a significant contributor to our company's overall profitability, with second quarter lease and rental revenues increasing 31.2% year-over-year. The growth is driven by our recent acquisitions in the fourth quarter of 2021 and second quarter of 2022, as well as strong demand due to healthy freight environment and limited new truck production. As we look ahead, we are closely monitoring inflation, interest rates, fuel prices, and other economic factors which may impact our industry.

That said, while economic growth has slowed somewhat, we believe strong demand for new trucks and aftermarket parts will continue. We have continued to focus on our strategic initiatives and diligent expense management, and we believe our financial results will remain strong. It is very important that I thank our employees for their impressive work and their ongoing commitment to our company and our future. With that, I'll take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. Please stand by. We'll compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Justin Long with Stephens. You may proceed.

Justin Long
Managing Director, Stephens

Thanks. Good morning, and congrats on the quarter.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Thank you, Justin.

Justin Long
Managing Director, Stephens

I guess to start, I wanted to ask about Class 8 sales. We saw a pretty nice step-up here in the second quarter versus the first quarter. Any thoughts on how that number trends sequentially headed into 3Q and 4Q?

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

It looks like it's gonna be pretty flat. You know, I think manufacturers have pretty much gotten to where they're going to be still dealing with, you know, not dealing as much as we were last year, of course, but there still are component supply shortages. There still are trucks being partially built that are offline. They're still dealing with those headwinds. So, you know, if I was gonna look somewhere, you know, and a lot of that has to do with timing, right, and mix of what the trucks are. You know, they need bodies. Do they have this? I don't have all that detail in front of me. But as far as what we're getting from a production perspective, I would call it basically flat.

You know, I don't look for new truck deliveries to change a whole lot over the next quarter and on out through Q4. Remember, we are still on allocation, so it's more what we can get, right? It's not what we have sold. Our backlog is still strong. Our backlog is as strong as it was at the end of last quarter, excuse me, Q1. You know, we feel good about it. As if manufacturers are able to ramp up production some, then you know it will go forward. I'm not gonna, you know, hedge out on that right now.

You know, I think they're doing a decent job of managing what they've had to manage, you know, dealing with the supply issues that we've had. We've gotten pretty good at it. We've been dealing with it for, like, 15, 16 months now, so I think manufacturers have figured out how not to overpromise and underdeliver after what we went through in 2021.

Justin Long
Managing Director, Stephens

Got it. You started the call and mentioned the strong and widespread demand for parts and service, obviously a big revenue number here in the second quarter. Could you share what the same store or organic growth rate?

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Sure.

Justin Long
Managing Director, Stephens

What was in parts and service and how you're thinking about that in the back half?

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Well, it was a robust. I think you remember right, we were 18% in Q1. It was a fairly robust 19%, obviously in Q2, right? I guess I missed the mark a little when I started coming in the first of the year, and I told you it'd be high single digits, but I guess we missed it on the right side of it anyway. As we look forward, I would expect comps get harder, but I still would expect some pretty solid double-digit growth rates, you know, on a same-store basis. I'm not sure we'll hit 19. You know, that's to be seen. I can reflect upon where I'm at as of today, okay? This far in July, we have continued to maintain the pace that we were setting in June.

We've seen no slide or slowdown or anything. There'll be some seasonal slight slowdown in the winter. That's just natural because we got so many stores in the south, just because of the air conditioning work, et cetera. It's not significant. That's just abnormal seasonal things we deal with. Right now, demand remains robust and, you know, we continue to believe, and we have the initiatives that we have going on out there, whether it's mobile side, or really chasing after the large fleet business. We've really been very focused on that, given our network, leveraging off the largest network in the country. We still believe that we can, you know, maintain pretty strong double digits. I'm not gonna go to 19, but you never know. These guys surprise me all the time.

We're very, you know, good robust growth as we go forward.

Justin Long
Managing Director, Stephens

Good to hear. I'll leave it at that. Thanks for the time.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

You betcha. Thank you, Justin.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. You may proceed.

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning. Nice quarter. Rusty, I guess my just first question, you know, in your prepared remarks, I think you said, you know, you see strong demand on the truck side, I think through 2026, just given pent-up demand and, you know, emissions requirements that are coming up. Just interested on sort of that's a pretty bold statement, just your thought process there and what your assumptions on the macro in that environment as everyone's sort of worried, you know, about a recession. Then just my second question, when you were talking about, you know, Class 8 sales or new truck sales or, you know, and you said, flat year. I think you said flat, was that relative to the first half or year-over-year? Thanks.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Well, I'll answer it back in reverse order. That's sequential, Jamie.

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay. Okay.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

So, uh-

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

That's what I thought.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Yeah, that's sequential. A little bold statement from me. You don't hear many of them, do you? Look, those comments are industry-specific directed, okay? I cannot control the general economy. What I can tell you is that given what we've dealt with since 2020, just step back a minute and look at the last two and a half years, right? We were shut down for a month and a half in 2020, okay? We didn't even build trucks when COVID hit in April and into May, okay? You lost that production. You get into 2021, and you're starting about March or April, and all of a sudden we've got supply constraints, you know, and we don't build. We build 220-something U.S. retail last year. The demand was there for way more, and so.

We get into this year, where are we gonna be, in the $250? You know, understanding this industry like I do, if you go back in time, we historically have always built to max capacity. Manufacturers have never worried about anything but producing everything they could. You know, I do have some customer touch and a lot of large fleets. Now, not the smaller people, they're getting hurt right now, right? With spot rates and all that going up. But a lot of large fleets have not been able to get trucks and replace at the rates they want to. Okay? You still got this pent-up demand. Look, if we have a big recession, of course, that's gonna affect it all. I can't predict that, and that's not my job to be that economist.

I can tell you that everything in the industry aligns. If you go back and look at what, like, a year and a half ago what people projected a year and a half ago for 2024, you know, right? Understanding what's going on, what. You know, we went through a decade between 2010 and 2020, where we didn't have any governmental influence. Okay? We didn't have really any emissions issues. We sure did between 2000 and 2010. I say, you know, I'm old. We had a lot to deal with, you know? We had some pretty big years in 2005 and 2006. I would somewhat compare what we have coming in front of us when I look at 2025 and 2026 to the same things, excluding what we're gonna start dealing with in 2024.

Remember, most people were figuring 2024, you know, we're gonna be down to 170,000 U.S. units. Because of not being able to meet demand, I think we somewhat. We're gonna go down in 2024, no question, but it's not gonna go to 170,000. Maybe it's 210, 215. These are my thoughts. I could be wrong. There's no question that the overall economy can throw things for a loop. The industry specifics are aligned that once we get through that, then the whole country, and we're talking about diesel engines going up maybe $20,000, okay? I realize that the economy can override all of this.

If you look specifically at the industry specifics, they pretty much align that way, given 2024 and 2027 emissions and given the lack of product that we typically would have produced to meet that demand. We haven't done it. You know, with backlogs like this, we'd be busting out at not 220 and 250 and 240, we'd be busting out at 280, 290,000 units and more. Manufacturers are not running at full capacity currently. It's really been a good thing from my perspective. This will. I like to believe outside of the overall economy, I can't control that.

Well, you know, if we get a soft R, a middle R, not a big R, you know, there'll be some effect, but I don't think it's as bad given these other things that I've talked about is what could be expected. That's really where those numbers I'm giving to you come from that I believe. You know, we're gonna ease. You know, we're gonna ease. We're gonna be fine through all this, I believe. If it is a big R and the whole country tanks down, obviously, it's gonna have an effect. I'm not an economist, and I don't believe it to be that case.

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay. Just one follow-up question on G&A. You know, G&A's been, you know, trending higher. I know there's some acquisitions that are in there as well, and you've done well at expense management. Just maybe, Steve, how you're thinking about that in the back half of the year? Thanks.

Steve Keller
CFO, Rush Enterprises

G&A, so we did have salary increases that went effective July first, and the numbers you see printed only have two months of Canada consolidated in the quarter. When you get the third month and you take into account the salary increases that we put through the company in July, that's probably gonna add on a quarterly basis about $8 million-$10 million to G&A. You know, the rest of the lift will be just coincide with the lift in back-end business aftermarket GP.

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Yeah. One thing, Jamie, I think, you know, when you look at that absorption rate, remember that takes into account expenses at the dealership level, right? The fixed expenses. We're managing to grow the gross a whole lot more than we are the expenses, right? That really reflects the spread that you get.

Jamie Cook
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. He may proceed.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Hey, Rusty. Good morning.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Thank you, Andrew. Morning to you.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Just a question, just to follow up on Jamie's question. You know, parts and services, clearly, you know, big beneficiary of the environment, big beneficiary of the investments that you guys have made, you know, since pricing is strong. First, you know, if we have disinflation, how sticky are the prices? And part two, you know, you sort of outlined this, you know, regulatory environment for the next five years that I think is gonna be fairly favorable. What should we expect from your parts and services, in terms of growth, over the next several years? And how should we think about you know, gross margins, right? Because it's such a huge driver of your profitability, and you have outlined this, you know, these big regulatory changes that's gonna drive demand.

How should we think about demand for parts and services within that environment, given how profitable they are?

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Right. Well, that's a good question, Andrew, right? Because all of a sudden, if you start, you know, taking the age of the fleet down, you would naturally think that would be a hit to parts and service. But I've gotta tell you, a lot of the. You know, look at what we've been doing. Our growth, you know, we've been affected by inflation. We all know that. But I do believe that a slight majority of our growth has been through share gain, okay? Yes, we've benefited through inflation, but we've also taken share at the same time. That's really what it's all about. That, you know, this last acquisition, I mean, last two acquisitions, really continue to help fill out our map. Understanding that, you know, we're after that large fleet business.

We're after all customer base, but our map is our differentiator. No one can put up a map when it comes to service, especially across the bottom two-thirds of the United States like us. You know, we're gonna continue to try to take share. That's what we get paid to do around here. Competition is strong, but I have a belief that the historical track records that we put up support and the continued growth in our map are gonna support our abilities to grow our parts and service market, right? And take share. You know, I mean, that's the best I can tell you. Will the fleet, if all those trucks, if the truck market stays strong, will the average age of the fleet come down? You better believe it will, it and then some.

At the same time, it's more about, you know, adding technicians, putting more emphasis on where we believe. I don't wanna get into all everything we do. You know, I do have people that probably listen to this call that are competitors, but, you know, I do believe we have. I don't wanna go anywhere. There's no secret sauce to this business, but there is an ability to leverage off of that map and continue to provide support to our customers for a broader base than anyone else. We can take share. We've done it in the past, and we will continue to do it from my perspective, going forward.

Our people are the best, and we're trying our best to provide them the best tools we can, from a technology perspective, or even, you know, an equipment perspective, across the board, facilities, whatever, and listening to customers and what they're asking for, especially when it comes to mobile and embedded technicians and these types of supports that I think we, you know, we lead the industry in. I know that's just a, maybe to you, maybe a generic answer, but it's a solid answer, my friend, let me tell you. It's what we do. That's. I think it's reflective in the numbers we're showing, right? I have no reason to believe that it's gonna stop.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

I'll you know, segue into a question about macro. You know, I think a lot of folks on Wall Street are concerned about a downturn. You brought it up. You know, given you know, how you phase in price increases and given the market share, you know, that you've gained, year to date, do you think you can grow parts and services business, in a mild recession? Just top line that you report to us.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

I got you. It's a good question. We have historically had. The last time I had an issue in growing it was I was really more heavily weighted in one particular industry, and you would know what that is.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Tell.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

That would be oil and gas. You got it, brother. You know what the good thing about right now is? We're not weighted that heavily in that business. While it may slow our growth rate down, and I'm not here to say guarantee 100% that if we had a you know a pretty strong recession, I wouldn't take a few hits because that's just natural in this business. People would, you know, they'll tighten up their belts a little bit. It wouldn't be nothing as significant as we might have seen in past. We would try to do our best to combat that with share gain. You know, I don't see. Even if we have a pretty strong recession, I see no way to take more than 5%.

If I have to take more than 5%, it would really bother me, given the diversity. I mean that genuinely, the diversity of our customer base now. Our customer base is much more diverse than it has been historically, so it should be better equipped to weather any storm that might come our way. Not that you're not gonna be affected by a storm. Doggone it, we'll be in a whole lot better shape, given that diversity of customer base across many market segments, not as focused. You remember back in, what, 2017 or so, we figured that we were, what, 15% tied to shale or something, right? Oil and gas. But it's not 3%. I don't believe that, you know, we're quite as, you know, quite as affected.

We're gonna get affected, but I believe we can maintain pretty close to flat. That would be my answer to you right now, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Got you. Flat or better in a mild recession, and maybe down mid-single digits.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

In a mild.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

in something more severe.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Yeah. If it went back, yeah, mild, flat or better. If you get, you know, a heavier recession to whatever, we'll keep it within 5%, my friend. Then remember, I got another lever to bolt on expenses at the same time. Don't forget about the other side of the house.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Just to follow up, you know, I guess clearly part of the reason your services are doing so well is because of the systems you guys have. And of course, these systems give you a lot of visibility in your end markets, in terms of real time. Can you just tell us what are you seeing in the economy, right? We're in towards the end of July. People are talking about recession. There seems to be a consensus that there's gonna be a recession in the next 6-12 months. What are you seeing? Maybe go by geography. You did highlight key verticals. You did highlight that you were seeing things slowing. What are you seeing slowing? And I think last time you sort of talked about the fact that the spot rate maybe was bottoming. What's happening there?

Just would greatly appreciate your insight. Thank you.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Sure. You bet. Well, I'm gonna take it in reverse order. Spot rates. You know, I think the spot rates peaked around $3, and they're around $2 or $2.95-$1.95, somewhere in there, give or take a few percent. So obviously, you know, they've taken quite a bit out of them. I don't know. I mean, you'd be better off talking to the truckload guys and the LTL guys, about where those rates are and where they believe they're trending, they're gonna be closer to it than me. I know where they've been, and I know how it's affected some of our stuff, you know, on the used side and that small customer, and there's no question that it's had an effect and will have. I think there's.

I was talking to a finance company last night, and they were you know seeing you know starting to see some delinquency and that more marginal customer out there. That, that's the effect of spot rates. Now when we talk about across the country, I'll be honest, Andrew, we're not seeing a lot of softening in any certain area. There's not one area, as I just got some folks around me here at the table, and I looked around and everybody sort of shook their head. Nothing's going backwards specifically. Are our antennas up and we're looking for it? We all listen to the same news headlines every day. We all read the same stuff. Yes, they are. Are we seeing it right now? No.

You know, if our customers said, "Look, it's softened, but it's still pretty good." Okay. I mean, is it softened? Yeah. I'm still doing extremely well and will be the first or second most profitable year they've ever had. Even if we have a slight recession next year with zero to flat GDP, I mean, from folks I've talked to, our customers may have the fourth-best year they've ever had even next year. I mean, it's pretty good in our industry right now for our customer base, I've got to tell you. You know, I mean, everybody's gotten their. They're not gonna get the same contract rates and increases. Some people said flat. You've heard one or two people say maybe a little contraction.

Some people said, "Well, I'll still get, you know, low to mid-single digit increases." I don't know. The market will dictate that, but you're not hearing doom and gloom. It's still for people that are behind on replacement. I have not heard about, "Well, I'm just gonna stop. I'll let my fleet age more." I have not heard that yet. You know, the truck business is usually a leader in and a leader out. You know, it's a great indicator of what's going on in this country when it comes to goods being hauled. I'm just not seeing that or not hearing it. Softening, yes, but it was such high levels, and they were getting 10%, 12%, 15%, you know, rate increases. That would've been unrealistic to expect that to continue.

Everybody's talking about replacing trucks. You know, I really believe that to be the case. I just haven't, you know, what we've seen is, you know, the only place that you've seen it, and I'm sure maybe somebody will ask, is used. Okay? That's usually for that, you know. That's because new truck production is up, and we're delivering more new trucks, so it naturally took used. That put pressure on used, which drove used to crazy rates and the spot market effect of it. Used has softened more than. Because used is the one area that I can say has softened. That would be expected as new truck deliveries increase.

I mean, the best answer I can give you is our antennas are up. We read about it. We see it. We know that people aren't getting the rate increases they were. They're flattened, but they're still hauling a lot of freight. There's still demand out there at this moment.

Andrew Obin
Managing Director, Bank of America

No, thanks a lot, Rusty. Really appreciate it.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

You bet. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Matthew Brooklier with GAMCO. You may proceed.

Matthew Brooklier
Research Analyst in Industrials, GAMCO

Hey, thanks and good morning. I had a question on the used truck side of things. It sounds like Class 8 over-the-road, those used prices are sequentially down, but yet positive mix in the quarter. Are you able to maybe put some numbers or percentages around how much the over-the-road trucks are down on a sequential basis? Then second part of the question would be, what are your expectations for the remainder of the year?

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Got it. Good question. Used peaked. Let's talk about peaks, then we'll take it down. Peak was, what, the late fourth quarter, January-ish, something like that. We started falling at the auction levels first, then it rolled into retail probably by about March. Numbers, 20%-25%, depending on the, you know, depending on the exact specification, but on over the road, somewhere in that range, while it was trickling down about 5% a month there. Instead of the typical. Remember, you typically get about 1.5%, you know, depreciation on a truck. This is usually. It can be a little more at different stages of its life, but just use 1.5. Well, we ramped it up to about five.

You run about five months in a row, and then we can do the math, right? Somewhere in that border. You've got in that 12. If you'd have told me a month ago, I'd have said 20, now I might say 25. I do expect that too, but it's still higher than where it was. It got so high, like I have never seen in my entire 40 years in this business, okay, 40+ years. Gosh, I'm old. In this business, never seen it like that, peaked to that kind of. There was just such strong demand out there, that it got really high. It's still higher than it probably was, you know, a little over a year ago or around a year ago.

It could come down further, and I would expect it to, but not at that same pace. You know, I think you'll see that, you know, you're getting further down the hill, right? You get into the valley and it starts declining. It's like a mountain, man. Real steep up top, and it starts getting a little bit more of a, you know, a trough road, you know, a U in it as it comes down, but it's still declining. Maybe another 10% the rest of this year, something like that. That's just a guess. Because, you know, we are building more new trucks, not building as many as we probably could given demand, but we are building more, so you've got to expect...

We are building more new trucks, not building as many as we probably could given demand, but we are building more, so you've got to expect it to, what, 5%, 7%, 8%, 10% more. I'm hoping that's it, and then it'll, you know, sort of soften out and get more back. But, you know, who knows? You know, you get a big recession, it can drop more or something. But I'm not forecasting that, but I'm not an economist. So that's, those are your answers. Look, I mean, when you're buying trucks more than you sold them two years ago, you know, things are crazy. That's kind of stuff that was going on late last, in the late back half of last year and into the first quarter of this year. That's all ended now.

It will work itself out and through. This I can tell you, as we always do, and people need to know that. Yeah, our margins were down. My margins have gotten crazy. Our margins in the quarter were more like we always tell you, 8%-10%. They were in the upper 10s. My inventory, we believe, is marked to market at the current rate.

Matthew Brooklier
Research Analyst in Industrials, GAMCO

Mm-hmm.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

We are working on getting our inventories levels down. We peaked at about 2,400. We're at about 2,000. I'm hoping to get to 1,800-1,900 units by the end of this month. We've been attacking it for about the last 60+ days. You know, you always look back. Well, I should have started maybe 60 days before. We started a little early. We started in good enough time, and I feel good about where we're at and where we're headed. How's that?

Matthew Brooklier
Research Analyst in Industrials, GAMCO

Okay. Appreciate the color, Rusty.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

You betcha.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. Our next question comes from Jim Masango with FactSet. You may proceed.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Oh.

Operator

If your line is on mute, please unmute.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

That's a great question.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Rusty Rush for any further remarks.

Rusty Rush
Chairman, CEO, and President, Rush Enterprises

Sure. Well, we appreciate everyone's time this morning and listening in. We look forward to talking to you again in October with, you know, hopefully great results again. Thank you very much. We appreciate your time. Have a great next quarter.

Operator

Thank you. This is today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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