Morning. Thank you for joining The Sherwin-Williams Company's review of first quarter 2023 results and our outlook for the second quarter and full year of 2023. With us on today's call are John Morikis, Chairman and CEO, Allen Mistysyn, CFO, Heidi Petz, President and COO, Jane Cronin, Senior Vice President, Enterprise Finance, and Jim Jaye, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. This conference call is being webcast simultaneously in listen-only mode by Issuer Direct via the Internet at www.sherwin.com. An archive replay of this webcast will be available at www.sherwin.com beginning approximately two hours after this conference call concludes. This conference call will include certain forward-looking statements as defined under U.S. Federal Securities laws with respect to sales, earnings, and other matters.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. A full declaration regarding forward-looking statements is provided in the company's earnings release transmitted earlier this morning. After the company's prepared remarks, we will open up this session to questions. I will now turn the call over to Jim Jaye.
Thank you, and good morning to everyone. Sherwin-Williams delivered excellent first quarter results compared to the same period a year ago. Consolidated net sales grew by a high single-digit %, ahead of our expectations, and were led by a mid-teens % increase in our professional architectural end markets. On the industrial side of the business, sales increased in all regions except Asia Pacific. Gross margin significantly improved sequentially and year-over-year, driven by strong volume in the Paint Stores Group and effective pricing. Cost of goods sold includes higher inflation in wages and other employee-related categories, which were partially offset by a slight decrease in year-over-year raw material costs.
We expect to hold the majority of the pricing we have put into the market, given the ongoing investments we have made to drive innovation, enhance services, and secure the talent that provides differentiated solutions to help our customers reach their goals and drive their success. Segment margin in all three reportable segments expanded sequentially and year-over-year. We also delivered strong double-digit growth in diluted net income per share and EBITDA. Additionally, we continued to execute on the portfolio realignment actions we announced late last year, including the divestiture of a non-core aerosol business, which closed on April first, and our recently announced agreement to divest our China architectural business. I'd like to highlight just a few of our consolidated first quarter numbers. Comparisons in my comments are to the prior year period, unless stated otherwise.
Starting with the top line, first quarter 2023 consolidated net sales increased 8.9% to $5.44 billion. Consolidated gross margin increased to 44.5%, an improvement of 340 basis points. SG&A expense as a percentage of sales was 31.1%, an increase of 140 basis points, driven by investments in the Paint Stores Group's long-term growth initiatives and investments in our people across the company through year-over-year increases in compensation and other employee-related benefits. Our people remain our key differentiator in the marketplace. Consolidated profit before tax increased $153.7 million or 33.3%. Diluted net income per share in the quarter was $1.84 per share versus $1.41 per share a year ago.
Excluding Valspar acquisition-related amortization expense and costs related to previously announced restructuring actions, first quarter adjusted diluted net income per share increased 26.7% to $2.04 per share versus $1.61 per share a year ago. EBITDA in the quarter increased $185 million or 26.7% and was 16.1% as a percent of sales. Let me now turn it over to Heidi, who will provide some commentary on our first quarter results by segment. John will follow Heidi with comments on our outlook before we move on to your questions.
Thank you, Jim. I'll begin with the Paint Stores Group, previously known as The Americas Group. We described this change on our last call and in this morning's press release. There's no impact to prior year consolidated results related to this change. Current and prior year segment results have been restated to reflect this change. First quarter Paint Stores Group sales were ahead of our expectations and increased 14.8%, driven by high single-digit volume growth and continued effective pricing. Segment profit increased by $97.9 million, and segment margin improved 120 basis points to 18.4%. Our Pro architectural sales grew by a mid-teens percentage in the quarter. All Pro market segments increased by double digits, led by property management and followed by commercial, residential repaint, and new residential respectively.
Sales in protective and marine and DIY also increased by double-digit %. From a product perspective, interior and exterior paint sales were both strong, with interior sales growing faster and representing a larger part of the mix. Moving on to results in our Consumer Brands Group, which again now reflect the addition of the Latin America architectural business in the current quarter and prior year. Sales were well ahead of our guidance and increased by 2.4% in the quarter. Performance was better than expected in North America, where sales were down less than 1%, and in Europe, where sales were down low single digits. In other regions, sales were up strong double digits in Latin America and down double digits in Asia. Effective pricing led by Latin America was partially offset by a mid-single-digit decrease in volume and low single-digit FX headwinds.
The tightness in alkyd resins impacting our ability to produce stains and aerosols improved significantly during the quarter, and we expect this issue to be behind us by the end of the second quarter. Adjusted segment margin was 13%, up 120 basis points year-over-year. As Jim mentioned, we divested a non-core aerosol business at the beginning of this month, and we also entered into an agreement to divest our China architectural business. We expect these actions will benefit segment margin over time as we drive a return to our high teens, low twenties adjusted margin target. One-time restructuring costs in the quarter were immaterial. Sales in the Performance Coatings Group increased 3.4% against a 20.4% comparison.
The increase was driven by low teens pricing and mid-single-digit sales from acquisitions, partially offset by a low teens decrease in volume, which included the impact from discontinued operations in Russia and a low single-digit unfavorable FX impact. Adjusted segment margin increased 390 basis points to 15.7% of sales. This is the fourth straight quarter this team has delivered year-over-year segment margin improvement, driven by execution of our strategy, including effective pricing. Sales in PCG varied significantly by region. In North America, sales increased high single digits against a nearly 30% comp. Latin America sales increased by double digits, also against a strong comp. Sales in Europe were up mid-single digits, while sales in Asia were down double digits.
From a division perspective, growth was strongest in auto refinish, which was up by a mid-teens %, followed by coil and general industrial, which were both up mid-single digits. All three of these divisions grew against double-digit comparisons. Industrial wood sales were down mid-single digits, as expected, due to slowing in furniture, cabinetry, and flooring related to new residential softness. Packaging sales also were down mid-single digits against a 30+ comp, with volume down about a point and the remainder due to our exit of Russia and unfavorable FX. We continue to feel very good about our position and growth prospects in this end market. With that, let me turn it over to John for his comments on our outlook for the second quarter and the full year.
Thank you, Heidi. I want to thank our teams for working hard to deliver a strong start to the year, especially the margin recovery we're seeing following the relentless cost inflation we've experienced the last two years. As we said in January, we expected to have a strong first quarter, and that's exactly what our team delivered. We also indicated that we would not be updating guidance after the first quarter. We know we have work to do, and we're under no illusions about the macro headwinds we're likely to face as the year progresses. We'll have a much better idea of how the year might unfold as we get deeper into the painting season over the next few months. As we enter the second quarter, we'll remain focused on what we can control.
This includes leveraging our recession-resilient markets, growing new accounts and share of wallet, continuing appropriate growth investments in stores and sales representatives, and managing price-cost dynamics. We remain confident in our differentiated strategy, capabilities, and product and service solutions, and we continue to expect to outperform the market. For the second quarter of 2023, we anticipate our consolidated net sales will be up or down by a low single-digit % compared to the second quarter of 2022, inclusive of a high single-digit % price increase. For the full year 2023, we expect consolidated net sales to be flat to down mid-single-digit %, inclusive of a mid-single-digit % price carryover from 2022.
Our sales expectations by segment for the second quarter and the full year are included in our slide deck and reflect the move of the Latin American architectural business from Paint Stores Group to Consumer Brands Group. There is no impact on our sales guidance in the quarter or the year from the divestiture of the China architectural business at this time, as the transaction has not yet closed. On the cost side, there's no change in our raw material outlook, where we continue to expect costs to be down by a low to mid-single digit % in 2023 compared to 2022. We expect to see the largest benefit occurring in the second and third quarters. We expect to see decreases across many commodity categories, though the ranges likely will vary widely.
We expect other costs, including wages and energy, to be up in the mid to high single digit range. The first quarter is typically our smallest. We need to see second quarter trends and performance to better understand potential impacts on our second half outlook. We expect to provide an update on our full year sales and EPS guidance following our second quarter. As a result, there is no change at this time to our guidance for full year 2023 diluted net income per share, which we expect to be in the range of $6.79-$7.59 per share. Full year 2023 earnings per share guidance includes acquisition-related amortization expense of approximately $0.81 per share and includes expense related to our previously announced targeted restructuring actions of $0.25-$0.35 per share.
On an adjusted basis, we expect full year 2023 earnings per share in the range of $7.95-$8.65. We provided a GAAP reconciliation in the Regulation G table within our press release. There are also no updates to the additional data points and capital allocation priorities we provided on our January call. I'll also refer you to the slide deck issued with our press release this morning, which provides guidance on our expectations for currency exchange, effective tax rate, CapEx, depreciation and amortization, and interest expense. All of these remain unchanged from our January call as well. Given the many variables at play, limited visibility beyond the first half, and the high level of uncertainty in the global economy, we continue to believe our current outlook is a realistic one.
As we get through our second quarter and we see more information, the assumption we laid out in January could change. If those assumptions change for the better, we would expect to deliver stronger results. We've transformed our business in many ways since the last significant downturn, and we're now a stronger and a more resilient company. I'm highly confident in our leadership team, which is deep and experienced and has been through many previous business cycles. We anticipated 2023 would be challenging. We've planned accordingly. We have and will continue taking appropriate actions. We expect strong momentum coming out of this period of uncertainty, similar to prior downturns. That momentum will stem from our strategy of providing innovative solutions that help our customers to be more productive and more profitable.
In challenging environments like the current one, we can become an even more valuable partner to our customers while we're also earning new ones. The bottom line is we expect to outperform the market and our competitors in 2023 and for years to come. That concludes our prepared remarks. With that, I'd like to thank you for joining us this morning, and we'll be happy to take your questions.
At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star One on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star Two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we poll for questions. Your first question for today is coming from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Could I ask in TAG in the quarter, just was looking at the incremental margins, obviously had a very strong sales performance, and I know there was about 5% carryover pricing in there, so it seems like the volume was quite strong. Was there just a lot of investment spend in the quarter, ahead of store openings or just some of your initiatives, and that if you could sort of bridge us to what the underlying total company SG&A expense was in the quarter and whether that is a good number to run with as we move through the balance of the year? Thanks.
Yeah, Vincent, this is Al len Mistysyn. Let me start with the Consolidated SG&A was up 14%. Paint Stores Group was just over two-thirds of that increase, and excluding acquisitions was approximately 80% of the increase year-over-year, and this is due to the increase in new stores and additional sales reps, which probably represented about 2/3 of the increase. In addition, employee-related costs were higher year-over-year due to multiple merit increases beginning in the second half of last year and into the first quarter of this year.
Yeah. Let me just jump in here. Before you carry on there, Al. On the investments of our employees, I think it's absolutely critical to understand in a controlled distribution model, particularly, we see the value of the retention of our employees as a key element of our strategy. We want to build relationships with our customers. We want to make sure we have the right talent, that they're trained, that they're developed, and that we retain them. The investments that we've made, beginning actually about mid-year last year, we are clearly seeing the benefits of that. Now, there's some benefit in the market as the economy has taken its course, and clearly that's had an impact on some employees and employers. Our relationship with our customers or our employees has improved dramatically, and I would point to our retention.
We've often boasted about our turnover rate down in the 7%-9% range, and we're proud to say that we're back in that range of employee turnover. Our retention is back to a historic low, and we think that's an important element and an important investment that we make, because we want to make sure that those employees are there when our customers are walking into our stores. Let me turn that back over to you.
The only thing I'd add to that is, Vincent, you know, as we discussed in January, we're gonna continue to manage our G&A expenses tightly and adjust, you know, other discretionary marketing and other spending as we get a better outlook on demand in the second half. I would expect a smaller year-over-year increase in our second quarter as we annualize the merit increase from last year. We start realizing more cost reductions from the restructuring activities. Typically, we see a slight uptick in SG&A in our Paint Stores Group as it ramps up staffing to service the increased seasonal architectural demand uptick. Acquisitions will be slightly less than what we saw in our first quarter, which is a low single-digit impact.
You know, we'd expect those to annualize and not see much in our second half. As the year goes on, my second quarter, I'd expect a percent of sales because of the seasonally higher architectural sales. The year-over-year change gets tighter as the year goes on as we annualize some of these things.
Thanks for all the details. Very helpful.
Thanks, Vincent.
Your next question is coming from Jeff Zekauskas at JPMorgan.
Thanks very much. The SG&A increase of 14%, I understand that, you know, it should moderate from that level, but, you know, this year with everything you're considering, are we going to be up more than 10% as a base case year-over-year?
No. Jeff, I'd expect, if you look at how Paint Stores Group, in particular, some SG&A rolled out as the year went on last year, it ramps up as we get into our second half because we added more stores, but the merit increases happen in our second half. The comp gets higher, so the % change gets lower as we go through the year. I would say the other groups have done a really nice job of managing their SG&A consumer paint. PCG would have a similar impact with the merit increases, but they've been managing their SG&A very tightly. In admin, we'll continue to invest in system upgrades and things like that, but we're gonna manage it tightly, so I would not expect that high of a percentage increase for the year.
Okay. Secondly, your new residential business seems to have held up reasonably well given market conditions. When we get to the fourth quarter or the, you know, first quarter of next year, as a base case, where do you think what do you think those volumes are like year-over-year in new residential in the Paint Stores?
Well, Jeff, we've said that the single-family housing starts are expected to be down year-over-year in the range of 20%-35%. Our expectation would be that in our business, we'd be better than the market. Our expectations would be that it would be down in the 10%-20% range. We've also talked openly about the fact that we expect some of our more recession-resilient segments to pull heavier during that period of time. As we saw the quarter unfold, we saw exactly the sequential trend that you just described.
Sure.
Year-over-year, January, we saw a high teens percentage increase, in February low double-digit % increase, and then mid-single-digit percentage in March. We expect that type of a trend to continue through the balance of the year. If you look back 90 days, 120 days, and you see the number of starts, in comparison to, you know, previous quarters, you could see the downturn and then the impact on our new res sales as it unfolds.
Great. Thank you so much.
Thanks, Jeff.
Your next question for today is coming from Christopher Parkinson at Mizuho.
Great. Thank you so much for taking my question. John, can you just hit on a little bit more on what you're hearing from your customers and contractors, in terms of backlog, specifically in the resi repaint market, property maintenance, and then perhaps just hit a little bit on what you're seeing in protective? It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
Yeah, Chris, I'd start with the fact that, you know, our Paint Stores Group is our largest business, as you know. It's a $12 billion portion of the company. 90% of our Paint Stores Group is made up of professional sales. As Heidi mentioned, pro sales in total grew by a mid-teens % with every one of our professional segments growing double digits. These are large segments growing double digits. We're growing real market share in absolute dollars. I, and I'll give Justin Binns and his team a lot of credit for the new account and share of wallet initiatives that are clearly working.
To your question specifically on residential repaint, we probably best would describe the bidding activity as having returned to a more normalized bidding market, where in the past, 12-18, maybe 24 months, it was difficult to get a painter to even come out and give you a bid because they were so busy and so backlogged. I would say that it's likely best described as a more level or more normalized bidding activity. You look at the LIRA or the NAHB remodel index, both are positive, but clearly some deceleration in what they're projecting. Our double-digit quarter this year was on top of a mid-single digit performance last year. I'd say that we have confidence in what we're doing. We have confidence in our ability to continue to grow and grow at our competitors' expense.
We have product back in our store. We just talked briefly about the people in our store. We think that's a very important element in what it is that we do. The retention of our people, we believe has a direct correlation to the retention of our customers. We continue to introduce new products. We can get into some of those details perhaps later if we'd like, but we're introducing new products to help keep that residential repaint customer, not only successful in what they're doing, but also growing in new segments as well.
Talked a little bit about new res there, a moment ago after Jeff's question, but I will say that, you know, our ability to work with our builders, and help to drive their business and their efficiency, we believe has been an important element in our ability to retain the relationships that we have, and in fact, grow those relationships. We're introducing in the face of an adverse market here and, you know, the adversity in new residential, we're introducing new products that will help our customers, you know, high build products that will help hide imperfections and improve durability, and that's helping us to grow our new residential business. We expect that to continue to grow. We expect to come out of this time here of some challenges in the market with absolute new and greater market share.
On the commercial side, you asked about, this was one of the markets that clearly came in with stronger than expected results for the quarter. Our position in this segment is very good, strong, and growing. We've been long investing in reps, products, specifications, and the fact that we have local stores and local reps is an important element in growing this segment. Again, we've introduced a number of innovative products here as well. When you think about labor, we often talk about that labor represents on average about 85% to 90% of the cost of goods for a painting contractor.
The cost for a commercial contractor is likely higher than that, than the average, perhaps in the 90%-95%, as many of the commercial contractors are either union or paint, you know, applying paint in the metro markets, which are higher cost. Our model, therefore, is even of greater value to these customers. Our ability to collaborate with the architects, work with the designers, work with these contractors is absolutely paying dividend. We're excited about this business. The commercial side, there's a lot of work that's still coming out of the ground, and we expect to continue to grow with this market and at the expense of our competitors. Property maintenance, you asked about as well, is another segment that grew stronger than expected.
Occupancy and rents are returning to more normal rates. Growth here is driven by not only our continued share gains, but capital improvement projects as well as an increase in turns. The pro side by segment is really going well, and we're gonna continue to put fuel in this tank and feel really good that while we're growing share, the only expectation we have for our team is to grow it even faster.
Christian, just as a quick follow-up on the raw material basket, just to keep this simple, you know, you've got a few things that are sticky, but broadly it seems like we're moving in the right direction. Can you just hit on the two most pleasant surprises in terms of the basket and perhaps the two most frustrating substrates, as we are if you're stand here today? Thank you.
Yeah. Chris, good morning. I would say that raw materials are really trending as we expected. I'm not sure that I'd say there's a lot of surprises there. They were down slightly in the first quarter. The moderation was led by monomers, solvents, and resins. To your point, TIO2 and pigments may be a little stickier near term, we expect to see some moderation there as the year goes on. I would remind everyone, as a reminder, our cost of goods also includes higher inflation in wages and other employee-related costs. For the second quarter, we're expecting to see some further moderation as we move towards our guide for the full year, which as we said in our opening, is unchanged, raw is down low to mid-single digits.
Thank you so much.
Thanks, Chris.
Your next question is coming from Mike Harrison at Seaport Research Partners.
Hi, good morning.
Hi, Mike.
Was hoping that you could talk a little bit about the additional, architectural capacity that you brought on, probably a little over a year ago. As you look at these housing challenges that seem to be ahead, is that additional capacity something that we should think about as weighing on utilization or fixed cost absorption as we're going forward? I guess in hindsight, should you maybe have pulled back or waited a little bit longer, to, expand some of that capacity?
Absolutely not. We expect and are filling that capacity, Mike. When you believe like we do in what's happening in the market and where we're going, if you were sitting in my chair, you would have invested exactly as we did. I wouldn't have pulled back $0.01 of it.
Yeah, Mike, I'd just add to that. As you remember on the January call, I talked about a potential headwind with just lower architectural volume because everybody in the industry had to build architectural inventory back up. That's short term. Long term, we have a lot of confidence in the growth across each of the segments, architectural pro segments that John talked about. We'll fill up that capacity very quickly. Even though it might be a short-term headwind, as we've lived through some of these cycles before, the bounce back and the strong growth, I go back to 2008 and 2009. We grew high single digit for the three, five, and 10-year compounded average growth rates. We're a much bigger architectural business today than we were back then. We'll fill that capacity.
I would argue or add to that, we're going forward on Statesville because of the confidence we have in the future outlook and the growth in architectural.
All right, great. Then, on the Performance Coatings business, it was a little bit surprising to me that Asia was the weakest region for you. Can you comment on how you expect demand to play out in the rest of the year across the different regions, and I guess with particular emphasis on are you gonna be seeing some recovery in China and in that Asia business? Thanks.
Well, Mike, we're positioned well to do just that. It's yet to be seen as, you know, the market tries to kind of resume back to some normalcy in Asia. We're positioned very well, our technology, our assets, our people. I think a lot of that has to do with what happens in the market, and, you know, our expectations, as in any situation, is to grow faster than the market. I think we're in a very good position from a technology but also relationship perspective. Yeah, I'd say that there's some uncertainty with the market in general. As it opens up and our customers are back producing product, we expect to capitalize more than our share there.
Thanks, Mike.
Your next question for today is coming from John McNulty at BMO Capital Markets.
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. It sounded like in the Consumer Brands side, business was maybe a little bit better than you expected. Can you speak to the stocking patterns that are going on there? Are we seeing kind of a normal stock? It seemed like the expectation was it was gonna be a little bit below normal, but again, you're kind of coming in better than you thought. Maybe a little bit of color there would be helpful.
Yeah, John, I would say that, you're absolutely right. We have obviously saw a better, performance in North America and in Europe. You know, if you remember on our January call, I said, you know, we had not seen the destocking in our fourth quarter that maybe some had seen. So we anticipated maybe a slower build in inventory at the retail channel. We actually saw a slight increase, in the retail channel inventory. I think, thinking back, if I look at across the chain from the retail channel back to our DSCs, we're back to more, I would call, historic levels of inventory. So we're well-positioned, to service, the spring and summer selling season, that's coming up.
I just highlight also, Latin America was a mid-single digit tailwind in the quarter. Latin America had a very strong double-digit quarter and that helped when you brought them into the Consumer Brands Group.
Got it. Okay. Okay. Then, you know, when you say I know you guys don't tend to do much around the weather or blame a lot or take much credit for things on the weather front, but you know, middle of you was a much wetter start to the season, particularly in regions where you can paint in the first quarter, out west and what have you. Looks like the Midwest, you know, also maybe started a little bit more slowly. Do you have pent-up demand? Is that why maybe some of the, you know, it looks like some of the data that we've at least been seeing from the contractors is maybe a little better than expected? I guess, how would you characterize that?
I'd characterize it as we don't like to talk about weather. You're right. I mean, I think there are areas that are gonna be under pressure with weather, John, and there are gonna be other areas that are a little better in weather and, you know, does it have some impact in some of those areas? Sure. You know, short of, you know, significant impact on our businesses, we try to stay away from that. Our expectations from our team includes, you know, the opportunity to go out and grow business. Appreciate the question, but we're not gonna, we're not gonna follow the weather as a means for what's driving our results right now. We're, we're proud of what we've accomplished. We're determined to accomplish more, we're not gonna let weather stand in our way.
Fair enough. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, John.
Your next question is coming from Ghansham Panjabi at Baird.
Yeah, thanks everyone.
Morning, Ghansham.
Good morning. Good morning. You know, John, you've given us parameters as to how to think about new residential for 2023, which was a reiteration of your previous view three months ago. Has your view changed on commercial for the year in context of the credit issues that, you know, the U.S. banking system and also Europe went through, starting in March? Or is it still pretty consistent with before?
You know, Ghansham, I'd say this year we see a pretty solid year. You know, these buildings are reaching the painting stage now. They started 12 to 18 months ago. We'll have to see if there is in fact an impact on construction and commercial, you know, 12 to 18 months from now. For the long line of sight that we have in this space, you know, we're growing share, and there's a lot of projects coming on which we expect to paint.
Okay. Gotcha. In terms of packaging, I know, you know, very tough comps for the first quarter, how are you thinking about the rest of the year for that specific business?
Well, you know, that's an interesting one because I think when you look at packaging, we never accept from any of our businesses softness. You know, this is a very unique situation with our packaging business. On top of the 30% comps, this team is continuing to expand the commercialization of what we consider a very unique technology. We continue to see the lines that our product is on. They grow. They're growing. We're growing share. What's happened right now is there's a level of destocking that's taking place within many brands, impacting our customers as they work through high inventory levels.
It's not often that I'm accepting to a team that's brought in softness, but in this case, given the line of sight that we have and the share that we're gaining and the incremental production lines that we're going on every day, we're giving them a break. I think the first quarter was a little tough. We'll probably have a little choppiness here in the second quarter. As the year progresses, our expectations will resume for this team to continue to grow or to be able to demonstrate the share that they're growing.
Perfect. Thank you.
It's a short-term issue for this team. We've got a lot of confidence in the technology, the team, and what we're doing. We'll be fine here.
Got it.
Thanks, Ghansham.
Your next question is coming from Michael Sison at Wells Fargo.
Hey, guys. Nice start to the year. John, I know you mentioned that you need to see how trends for 2Q unfolds to have a better idea for the second half. Just curious if, you know, 2Q unfolds as you expect today, you know, I think your outlook suggests that PSG volumes are gonna flatten out versus a pretty strong 1st quarter. What does that mean for your second half outlook? You know, if 2Q comes in better or worse, what does that sort of mean?
Yeah, Mike, would say, you know, John talked about, I mean, our first quarter is the smallest quarter. You know, we expected a strong quarter. We delivered on that. You know, we closely monitoring the demand trends and expect, as you mentioned, you know, and we said it on our year-end call, that new residential demand would start slowing in our second quarter. You know, we've experienced a lot of market uncertainty before. You know, I just look at the last three years. I think it's better to get a better view of demand, you know, after our seasonally higher second quarter. This gives us the best opportunity and more certainty for our second half. We'll continue to manage our SG&A, particular our G&A tightly.
Continued investments in other discretionary items will be managed with the demand outlook. I think we believe these long-term growth investments allow us to grow market share in any environment, and especially as we come out of this slower macro environment. This is how we're gonna manage the company going forward. I mean, we believe our second half outlook is realistic. You know, we also believe we'll outperform the market, and if the market demand is better than our expectations, we'll perform better than what we currently have here. We'll bring all those variables together and give you our best outlook after the second quarter for the year.
As a quick follow-up, if, you know, given your new capacity, better cost structure and such, if you do get your volumes back to where they were, you know, prior to this downturn, where do you think, you know, earnings or margins should be at this going forward?
Well, we've talked about Just speaking to margin, gross margin, We'll be in the range of the 45%-48%. We've, I think, demonstrated the incremental sequential margins in this quarter, getting close to that bottom level of the range, and we expect to poke through that. The reason we do expect that is that we believe we're focused on the right customers with the right solutions. Our focus is really simple. I mean, we wanna help them make more money. Help them to be successful. As a result, we are in a position to be able to build that combined success. As a result, we expect to be able to provide margins for both our customers and our shareholders.
The combination of the right customers with the right solutions we believe will lead us to that.
The only thing I'd add to that, Mike, is when I start thinking about it by segment, you know, we have a lot of confidence in our Performance Coatings Group to drive operating margins to that high teens, low 20s. The first quarter, excluding acquisitions, we were at 16.4%. Again, if you remember, we hit that mark in the third quarter. It's an all-time high since we've owned Valspar. And we're confident in driving Consumer Brands Group back up to that high teens and low 20s. If we get our cost structure right, that'll be a tailwind.
We hold on to price. As we come out of this, we drive strong architectural gallon growth, market share growth on our Performance Coatings business. That's what's gonna drive those operating margins back up to the high water marks we experience on different occasions on the different businesses.
Thank you.
Thanks, Mike.
Your next question is coming from Steve Byrne at Bank of America.
Yes, thank you. What fraction of your consumer business is the Pros Who Paint category, versus what was it, you know, back when you first got that exclusivity with Lowe's? What would you say is driving that growth? For example, is it, you know, the product offering, or I know Lowe's is at least in some stores offering free delivery to the job site. Can you comment on how extensive that is? Is that meaningful, and are you involved in that?
Yeah. Oh, go ahead, John.
No, I was just going to say, I want to start and then kick it to you, Heidi. I'd say, first of all, there's a commitment by both companies to grow this. We've got terrific leaders inside our organization, and they're working with terrific leaders inside the Lowe's organization, outstanding partner, and I think we're combined looking at the right elements of the business. We're not gonna disclose a percentage on that, Steve. Heidi, I would like for you to maybe we could talk a little bit about the Pros Who Paint, but also on a broader view, the importance of this relationship in the Consumer Brands portfolio, as well as the initiatives that we have to grow.
Yeah. Good morning, Steve. This is Heidi Petz. John covered a good bit of this. I think at the end of the day, we wanna make sure that we are demonstrating that we're the very best partner. In fact, we want to be their number one partner. We think of some of the engagements here and how we're activating. Certainly, there's a lot of support as they're working through their promotional calendars, making sure that we're investing in the right areas, not only to drive traffic, but to make sure that we're converting those shoppers in the aisles, certainly. We've got a lot of great brands. We've got some launches that are taking place right now.
We won't get into too much detail here, we wanna make sure that we're in lockstep with them in terms of driving those conversions. John mentioned this, their leadership team, certainly all the way through the organization, I would say our partnership has never been better than it is right now in terms of making sure we've got the alignment across the organization, both with their Pro to Paint and the DIY segments. When you think of the structures, we've got to make sure that those are mirrored and that the metrics are aligned there. Feel really confident in the way that we're moving forward and got big plans for the year, so we're gonna keep moving.
On the Pro Who Paints specifically, Steve, to your point, there are customers that prefer a home center platform. You know, they can purchase everything from drywall to every other element that they might use on a project. To get to your question about, you know, who supplies delivery or sales calls. There's a team effort that goes along with that. While we don't disclose the details of those for strategic and competitive reasons, I think Heidi hit it best. The collaboration and focus has never been stronger.
Maybe one more for you, Heidi, and that's the Huarun brand over in China that is an old Valspar brand. I recall a few years back when the post the merger, the company was gonna drill into that, you know, those Huarun brand stores in China and see if that, you know, that could, that could be driven into, you know, a paint stores type of model like is in the U.S. Was the conclusion of that effort is it really didn't have that potential and thus you're not the best owner for that brand?
Steve, I think you answered it perfectly. Yes. There's a better model here. I think this, the divestiture, certainly it does align with our strategy. You know, as we've done a lot of work in that group to optimize the portfolio of the brands, certainly making sure that we're driving a focus on where we can get a return for our shareholders. I think you said it, sometimes they're just assets that are more valuable to others, and this is an example of just that. We had the business with about $100 million in revenue with 300 employees, and frankly, was acquired as part of the Valspar acquisition, you'll remember, in 2017. As we move down the next quarter here, we'd expect to close on this second half of 2023.
Thank you.
Thanks, Steve.
Your next question for today is coming from Gregory Melich at Evercore ISI.
Hi, thanks. Thanks for the helpful volume trends through the quarter in architectural. Is it fair to say, given the deceleration in top line that you expect that April is running negative volume year-over-year now, or has the deceleration been less dramatic than that?
Yeah, Greg, I would just say that April is trending as we would have expected it to trend, not any better or worse.
All right. Well, I have to try. How about this? In the first, in the first quarter, could you break down the sales growth, the 8.9% into, like, volume was down slightly and just sort of what was price and FX in that to sort of help us frame the sales going to flatten the second quarter? How much of it is from volume deceleration? How much of it is from price staying where it is?
Sure, Greg. I would say price is up high single digits. With that being a little bit higher, acquisitions added a low single digit percentage, which was mostly offset by FX headwinds. You're right, the volume was flattish. If you look at that in our second quarter, you know, effective price is gonna be slightly lower year-over-year in the second quarter compared to the first quarter as we annualize the Paint Stores Group 12% price increase February first, and some of the other price increases. You know, the other divisions and groups were out with significant price increases as well. They're just not as uniform as Paint Stores Group, but they will annualize as we've gotten through our first quarter and into our second quarter.
The main difference is lower volumes, primarily due to lower new residential that we talked about, some softening in North America Performance Coatings Group. Then FX headwinds will mostly offset acquisitions in both quarters.
Is it fair to say that, or maybe you could help by breaking down the gross margin expansion in the first quarter? Was that primarily getting price on top of raws? Or, you know, the fact that volume sort of held in there, were you able to get some margin expansion from volume not being down so much?
Yeah. I'd say most of the impact were price increases, but the benefit, we did see a nice benefit of the increased volumes in Paint Stores Group. As a reminder, that is our highest gross margin segment, and plus the slightly moderating raw materials that John talked about. We are getting on top of the raw material costs. As you know, as we get into significant raw material inflation, we see that short-term contraction. As pricing starts catching up, we moderate or gross margins flatten out, and then we see growth as raw materials moderate, and we hang on to most of the price. It's because of the investments we continue to make and.
I think it's an important element. We continue to invest not only in the products, but the services and technologies as well as the other assets. Additionally, I'd say the obvious and important investment in talent that we just talked about, the retention of talent and as well as new talent. It's more than what's in the can. We're investing in the success of our customers with every rep, every tech rep, every store, even the trucks we're adding to our fleet, all designed to improve the profitability of our customers. You know, there's more to it than the cost of what's in the can, and, you know, we're trying to drive the success of our customers with the investments that we're making.
With that, John, maybe I'll jump on that. Given those investments you're making and wage pressure and other costs besides raws, is this a year where you actually could have a price increase, even if raws are slightly down?
You know, Greg, we've talked for many years together about our approach, it doesn't change. You know, every 30 days, we sit down, Allen, Heidi, myself with the entire leadership team, and we have a discussion. The discussion isn't just on raw materials, to your point, it's on every cost that we have. We do everything we can to try to drive more and more efficiency into the operations that we have. We try to use our leverage with purchasing. We try to drive efficiencies in the plant, everything, so that we don't have to go out with price increases. That's our first choice. There are times when we find ourselves, as you described, in situations where it may not be the lever of raw materials that drives it.
It might be some of the others, energy, transportation, whatever it might be. On a monthly basis, we evaluate that, we make that decision, we take it to our customers, then we talk to our investors. At this point, we're not in a position to talk about any increases because we're not out with those on a broad scale inside our stores. I will say that with some customers in different parts of our businesses where we've been working to put pricing in, we're still putting pricing in. There's no finish line in this area.
That's great. Well, good luck.
Yeah. Thank you, Greg.
Your next question is coming from Michael Leithead at Barclays.
Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just one on my end. I wanted to dig in on the Performance Coatings outlook. I guess revenue is up, call it 3.5% in 1Q. You're guiding 2Q down low single digits, so call it flattish for the first half. The full year guides down about 10 or so, which it seems to imply some pretty steep second half decline. Can you maybe just unpack that a little bit?
Sure, Mike. Let me start, and then I'll let Heidi jump in. you know, we do expect continued strength in auto refinish and positive sales in general industrial in the second quarter, maybe a little bit slower than what we saw in our first quarter. We expect a continued softness in industrial wood. and then we expect coil and packaging to be down low single digit, primarily due to the strong double digit comps in the second quarter. I think if you look at it by region, North America, our largest region, is expected to be up or down low single digits compared to a high single digit first quarter, both against strong double digit comps.
We're not expecting a ton of improvement in Europe or Asia Pacific, and even Latin America will moderate a little bit.
Yeah, I would just hit a few highlights here on the segments. I think obviously a lot of this is based on our strategy of differentiation. Al hit on some of the regions. Just a couple highlights. If you look at where we've said based on being recession resilient, automotive refinish is a great example where we were up mid-teen percent. We do see strong demand in most regions, and I would also comment on the really good price realization for the value that we're able to create and demonstrate for our customers. We've been, a number of calls here the last few quarters, we've been talking more about our installations, and we're now seeing the momentum really building here. We would expect to continue to build that momentum, and I think you could expect to see us taking some meaningful share here.
A few challenges we're still working through. You'll probably hear a consistent theme across Performance Coatings Group in some of these segments where we've largely recovered our raw material challenges, but it is now a race to convert to finished goods as soon as possible. You can imagine in the automotive refinish space, that is absolutely a priority. Also working closely with our customers where labor does continue to be a challenge for these customers. You know, the shop technicians, parts shortages are impacting some of these customers that are working through backlogs rather, in the automotive refinish.
I'd highlight quickly here, too, Mike, is the protective and marine, where as you know, we're servicing this segment through our paint stores in North America and very strong double-digit sales in the quarter and still a strong, aggressively strong outlook, I would say, through 2023. You know, demand is strong in North America and Latin America through most of the segments in protective and marine. Europe, Asia, we've talked about these. Certainly seeing some pressure there, which is leading to some project delays. As I mentioned, we're on the path here making sure that we're taking every ounce of the resin as it continues to improve to raise to conversion here. We'd expect to see growth and incremental share gains there as well. I'll comment just briefly on general industrial. You mentioned it.
I think this I would categorize as more of a mixed bag across the segments in the regions. Globally, heavy equipment remains our strongest. You've got some areas that are showing early signs of slowing. Appliances would be a good example of that, just adjusting to inventory levels. We're gonna continue to ramp up production there. Briefly on coil, I'll hit industrial wood and certainly come back to any additional comments. Coil North America is remaining strong with very consistent demand. Our metal buildings business is performing better than expected and seeing some softness in areas like the aluminum trim business. Latin America continues to be very strong with good performance that is built on new business and new accounts. The team's been laser focused there, we're still seeing pressure across EMEA and Asia in coil.
I'll briefly hit on industrial wood. We've talked about this segment where we feel the most pressure, I would say within the actual segment, the most pressure is coming from furniture. The other segments like kitchen cabinets and flooring we mentioned in our prepared remarks, that are tied to new residential continue to be a challenge. We're seeing continued pressure there. Importantly, what the leadership team there is working on is expanding aggressively through market share gains while our competition, in some cases is reacting to market softness differently. We're working on getting these gains with a focus on introducing new technology. I'll give you a quick example here.
The example with in our furniture category, this technology is going to allow our customers greater service, quicker turnaround, and ultimately smaller batches, which brings benefit to the customer with less working capital, less waste, and less obsolescence. I'm bringing this to you just as another example of beyond what's in the can, how we partner with our customers to bring them solutions that are meaningful to their business goals. Quick whirl around those segments, but just a little bit of color.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Mike.
Your next question is coming from Truman Patterson at Wolfe Research.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Just following up on one of Greg's questions, just for a little clarity. Pricing trends during the quarter, in each of the segments, were you actually able to realize or capture incremental pricing in each of the three segments, or was it really just kind of carry over from what was already in place in the fourth quarter?
Truman, it's for Paint Stores Group, it's mostly carryover for consumer. There's pockets where maybe we didn't have product, and now we're able to better service the customer with improving alkyd resin situation. In Performance Coatings Group, for sure there was some incremental pricing across specific businesses and specific regions that John even talked about, where maybe we haven't been as effective as we needed to be in the past or there's other inputs that are causing our costs to go up. I use energy in Europe as one example where we've had to be out to offset some of those higher costs. So maybe some incremental. The vast majority of it though is the carryover pricing from 2022.
Perfect. Thank you. In Performance Coatings, op margin was up like 400 basis points year-over-year to 15.7%. That's highest first quarter in like eight years, even though volumes were down like low teens. Normally, you see a sequential ramp in those margins in 2Q and 3Q. Were there any one-time items in the first quarter that we shouldn't think, you know, margins will follow normal seasonality in 2Q or 3Q? Or is that kind of a good cadence to think about?
I would say that's, it's probably a good cadence. There wasn't anything one time that jumps out, Truman, as you can imagine across a global business, there's puts and takes every quarter, but nothing that drove the over increase in our operating margin.
Yeah, Truman, I'd give a lot of credit to our leader there, Karl Jorgenrud, and his lieutenants that are out driving every day. To your point, you know, we see this sequential improvement. There's a lot of hard work, you know, the identification of the right customers, the right segments, the right technologies, and really demonstrating the ability to help our customers to improve their profitability. We've said for a long time that we expect this to be in the high teens, low twenties. If Karl was in the room right now, I'd look him in the eye and tell him I'm expecting him to get there very quickly. He would probably respond that he's going to. We've got a lot of confidence in that team, a lot of expectations, high expectations, and we are going to deliver.
Truman, the other, the only other thing I would add to that is, you know, acquisitions were slightly dilutive in the quarter. As we continue to integrate those acquisitions, realize synergies as the year goes on, my expectation that that'll improve as the year progresses and help drive better operating margin in this segment.
Perfect. Thank you all. Good luck in the upcoming quarters.
Thank you, Truman.
Your next question is coming from David Begleiter at Deutsche Bank.
Thank you. John, just on Q2, historically, you see about a 5%, $0.75 increase sequentially from Q1. Would you expect a similar increase this year or perhaps a little bit less given the demand weakness that you've been talking about here?
Yeah, David, we're not gonna give guidance on our second quarter EPS. I understand the question. What I think you can expect to see in our second quarter is, you know, gross margin, we expect sequential and year-over-year improvement. You know, we talked about the price increases and a sequential and carrying over and a sequential improvement in raw material costs will have a positive impact, partially offset by higher wages within manufacturing distribution. I would say, you know, with SG&A, I do expect a smaller year-over-year increase in our second quarter as we annualize that merit increase from last year, and we start realizing more of the cost reductions from restructuring activity.
you know, we typically see an increase in SG&A, as I talked about with Paint Stores Group, ramping up to service the increased sales. as a percent of sales, I would expect our SG&A as a % to be lower in our second quarter because of that seasonally higher architectural sales. you know, you do expect a lift in our second quarter because of the improvement in Paint Stores Group quarter-to-quarter architectural sales, but we're not gonna-
Yeah, we expect to have a good second quarter.
Yeah.
We're gonna update you at the end of the quarter. As what we see right now, we expect a good quarter.
Understood. John, just on the Paint Stores Group, are you seeing any price erosion or give backs in that business?
No. Actually, David, normally what we see is, you know, a small percentage, large, perhaps what we might call marquee jobs that get a lot of attention. You know, we're all proud, and some of us have egos, we admit that we wanna see our paint on specific projects. For the most part, what you see is a pretty disciplined industry because we all understand, you know, that it is competitive and the ability to continue to keep your company healthy and invest in the, in those drivers that will help your customers to be successful requires that health. It's competitive for sure. For the most part, you know, it's a race to demonstrate the value that you can bring, and we believe that, in that race, strong wins.
Very good. Thank you.
You bet.
Thanks, David.
Your next question for today is coming from Joshua Spector at UBS.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks. wanted to follow up on the pro contractor side of things. I think last call, John, you needed to almost educate them about the fact that there were gonna be market declines, and they weren't really seeing declining in backlogs or anything to that extent. Has that changed? Has that conversation changed? From what you guys have visibility on the backlogs now, has that changed much versus a few months ago?
I should be careful in making general statements like that because, you know, to characterize an entire industry like that can be challenging, to say the least. I would say that many customers that have in the past not been able to even return phone calls on bids, bid requests are now either returning those calls or looking for some of those bid requests. There's an understanding that there's an opportunity to continue to grow. You know, if you look at the homes in the U.S., they are aging. The residents of those homes are aging.
While many of those people may choose to move into a new home, many are choosing to stay in those homes, and paint remains a relatively inexpensive yet highly impactful project, and those painting contractors are pursuing those. Again, I mentioned earlier, I would describe it as a more normalized market. Contractors are, you know, looking and doing a lot of work, and they're also probably a little more aware that having a marketing aspect of, to what they're doing is important part of their future success, and we're helping them with that. It's an element that most people don't recognize, you know?
When I say it's not just what's in the can, we've been at this for, you know, over 150 years, obviously. Our ability to align with our customers, help them to understand not only that they should be looking around the corner, but how to prepare for that. They might have been great painters, now they own a paint company. When they started the business, they put a sign on, you know, a project and every person in the neighborhood came to them. We're helping them to understand how to reach out and grow their business, how to, in some cases, specify products, in some cases even how to interview potential painters. We're lockstep with these firms, helping them to grow their business in ways that most people wouldn't understand.
Thanks. I guess if I ask about the repaint demand side of things, just, you know, we've been in this downturn now for the last six, nine months, or at least when starts come down and some of the housing turnover softened. You know, given the higher DIY demand during COVID and, you know, where interest rates are, more people staying put, I guess, how do you square all those to say, is repaint that 75%, which is more defensive, is that staying defensive? Is that less defensive, more defensive now? Any way to characterize how you're thinking about that based on what you're seeing today?
I'm not sure I quite understand your question, but I might say that we see this residential repaint business, and have seen it as an important element to offset some of the softness in the market. Coming out of the last downturn, Al, myself, and many of the leaders that are currently running the company sat and reviewed during a slowdown, like we had experienced then, what would we like to have going forward? It was a larger, more meaningful residential repaint business. We've been successful in doing that. We were successful in growing new residential. Our position there, we love our position there and we've over-indexed now given the success that we've had.
The offset to that has been the residential repaint, the property management, and on the industrial side, businesses like our automotive refinish and some other even subsegments within some of our areas. We manage this business with a long-term view, and we're always looking at the war game of, if this happens, then what? Residential repaint right now is an important element. If you look at our DIY business, our DIY business was up double digits, but it's because the comparisons were so small. Last year, we made the decision to de-emphasize. We weren't making our DIY product. And the reason we did that is that we were allocating that to our DIY retail customers that are important. We wanna maintain that long-term relationship.
We took a hit there in last year's sales in DIY to help our large and important customers grow. Our DIY comps look good now, but it's on a small base. The residential repaint business is an important element that we expect to continue to grow. DIY, we'll take that business, but our focus is on the 90% of the professional through our stores.
Josh, one more thing I would add to that on the residential repaint side. I think if you look at back to your question on the backlogs and how we think about this business offsetting some of the other softening demand, we're introducing new products. If you think about these contractors going in largely focused on the walls, we've introduced a new professional cabinet coating. It's essentially a one component that performs much like a two-component epoxy. Excellent chemical and moisture resistance and allowing these contractors to go in and essentially help to complete an entire kitchen from the walls to the cabinet. Really trying to arm them with the ability to take advantage of while they're in the home, where else they can generate revenue.
Okay, appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you, Josh.
Your next question is coming from Aleksey Yefremov at KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Thanks and good afternoon, everyone. I have two questions from the cost side. One is on the labor costs. What are you seeing in terms of trends, any signs of inflation leveling out there? The second part is on the real estate. As you sign new leases or renew existing leases, are you seeing any cost moderation there?
Let me, I'll take the first one on our, you know, labor costs. You know, we talked about mid-high single digit labor costs through our non-factory distribution facilities,
We do expect that to level out, especially as we get into our second half. In our factories and distribution centers, I would say the rate of increase has been higher to attract and retain those individuals in our sites. I would say on that side, Aleksey, we're gonna continue to do specific market studies to make sure we don't get out of bed, if you will, or outside of the market in any given area. I think what I would admit to is we maybe got a little behind previously. We're not gonna let that happen. I believe it's leveled out as we see more unemployment rates tick up. You know, it'll put less pressure on wage inflation going forward.
I think we've gotta be diligent in the manufacturing distribution areas to, each market's a little different. Each one's gonna be more specific to what's happening in that market, and we'll be more diligent there. I do expect them to level out.
On the rent side, I would tell you that, for the most part, I'd say rents seem to be relatively flat. We make a very good tenant. We try to use that and leverage that. The fact that, you know, as the predominant or premium brand here, we like to talk about what it is that we bring. We talk about our financial strength and the fact that we're investing in our industry while others are closing stores, we think plays well to those tenants that are looking for a long-term tenant that can pay their bills, and we fit that bill.
Thanks a lot. Very helpful.
Thank you.
Your next question for today is coming from Arun Viswanathan at RBC Capital Markets.
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. First question, I guess, was, you guys have, you know, obviously many, many businesses. If you were to characterize maybe the top two or three that are performing better than expected or have the capabilities of performing better than expected, what would those be? Would that be maybe commercial, and maybe new home new resi potentially not being as bad as you initially thought? How should we think about that? Thanks.
I would say that commercial certainly has performed better. Our property maintenance has performed better. Our protective and marine has performed better. I think that our residential repaint. We had high expectations of that going in. We, I think I would never say they're meeting our expectations. When they meet our expectations, we raise our expectations. On the industrial side, I think our automotive business is really doing very well. I'd say that there are some others that it's hard to answer this question, Arun, because in each of our businesses, there are opportunities. It's, In our business, the way we look at it's not a one or a 0.
You know, when our teams come in and talk about, you know, if you're looking at our Paint Stores Group, you can come in and talk about new residential being under pressure. The focus is on where are the opportunities. Even within new residential, we know there are opportunities there for growth. You know, there's no finish line. In each of these businesses, there are opportunities. You know, the role of our leadership teams that have been through many of these in the past is to find those opportunities. They exist in every single business.
Even industrial wood, where there's a lot of pressure, there are opportunities for growth, and we expect the team to find those opportunities, grow in those segments while improving their position within the segments or the sub-segments that we play in now, so that when the market does return, that we are that coiled spring, and we take advantage of it. We expected them all to grow faster than the market.
Okay. Thanks for that. As a follow-up, wanted to ask about the EPS outlook here a little bit. Prior to your last earnings report, I think several of us, rightly or wrongly, were in the $9.50-$10 range for 2023. You know, yourselves and us have rebased our expectations to $8.35 or so at the midpoint. Does that $1.50 or so that, you know, we had to remove from our outlook, what would it take for that to come back in 2024? Is it mainly, you know, lower, you know, a better affordability environment driving higher having turnover?
I know there's several things and that you can probably mention, John, but similar, you know, what are maybe a couple of the top drivers that would get you back into that near $10 range on EPS? Thanks.
Yeah. Yeah. Arun, the first and always the biggest is volume growth. I mean, there's been a lot of macro headwinds. There's a lot of uncertainty, and you hit some of the mortgage rates are higher. Existing home turnover is lower. New family, single-family starts are lower. You know, as we keep investing in new stores, in new reps, and some of the other long-term growth opportunities, reps across each of the businesses, as the market improves, because of the added investments we've put in over time, we expect to grow a much faster than that market. So instead of a headwind with the macro environment, it becomes a tailwind. We grow.
You know, I keep going back to 2008 and 2009 because I believe it's a similar environment and a similar dynamics. We expect to grow not 1x to 2x the market, but 2x to 2.5x to 3x the market. That's how
We're gonna drive that operating margin back to where we expect it to be.
Yeah, it's capitalizing on I mean, Arun mentioned in the last response that, you know, in every one of these segments, I agree, volume is the key and growing share is important. You know, even we talk a lot about new residential, and we point to single-family frequently when we're having that discussion. You know, the fact that multifamily starts have been more robust since last summer is a terrific opportunity. Our ability to shift resources and attention to those opportunities is what differentiates us and why we believe that we'll get there and the opportunity to really see that expansion, we're not just waiting for the market to come back.
We're working every day to take that volume and be in a better position to capitalize on it once the markets improve.
Just one last quick one. I know you guys have moved the FCP to August. Was that mainly just so you had a little bit more visibility into the year, or I guess usually it's done in May or June, so just if there was anything to that, just wanted to understand that move? Thanks.
We wanted to bring you to Cleveland in August. It's a beautiful time to be here.
Great.
It's, yeah. I mean, it's to bring you in and be able to talk a little bit more about, you know, our line of sight in August is gonna be much better. Quite frankly, we're proud to put our teams in front of you, and we think we're gonna have a lot of really good things to talk about. We're looking forward to hosting you here.
Thanks.
Thanks, Arun.
Your next question for today is coming from John Roberts at Credit Suisse.
Thank you. Your auto refinish business has been consistently strong for a long time right now. During the pandemic, I thought it was Dupli-Color, but now we're out of the pandemic, and it's still strong. Is it controlled distribution? Is it new products? What's driving that above-market performance?
Yes. It's controlled distribution. It's technology. We talked about the combination of the technology system between some technology combined combining Sherwin and Valspar technology. We have wonderful leadership, and we have great products, great distribution that's controlled. We've been talking to your point, John, about our position here for some time and expected it to grow, and we think the numbers are proving exactly what we said was going to happen is in fact happening.
Okay. Then you've got you've got over 300 stores in Latin America. Now that they're in the consumer segment, do you run them differently? Are you gonna be repositioning those stores?
No. All along we've been sharing talent as well as best practices amongst the Consumer Brands Group and our Paint Stores Group. There is a realization that more and more of that business represents or mirrors a business that might most likely be found in our Consumer Brands Group. We've got talent in our Consumer Brands Group. Todd Ray and that team has really done a wonderful job, and we think bringing their expertise to that market where we can leverage their experiences will be terrific. Quite frankly, it'll work both ways. We have terrific leaders in Latin America as well, and we expect to learn from what it is that they do down there and bring some of that back to North America.
It's a win-win for both businesses and certainly for customers on both sides.
Okay. Thank you.
John.
Your next question for today is coming from Kevin McCarthy at Vertical Research Partners.
Good afternoon, everyone. With regard to your Performance Coatings Group, is it your sense that customer destocking is done as we sit here in April, or is it still playing out among certain businesses within the segment?
I would say it's likely played out, although I would say there might be some differences in region by region, Kevin. You know, if you look at what's happening in Europe as an example, there's a lot of concern in the market. We might have some customers that might still be in a unique position. For the most part, particularly here in North America, I don't think there's a great deal of inventory in the segments that we play in.
Good to hear. Secondly, if I may, what percentage of your Performance Coatings Group sales are linked to contracts that would feature some sort of indexed pricing mechanism as it relates to raw materials?
A very small percentage.
When you say, in your prepared remarks, John, that, you know, you hang on to the majority of your price increases, it sounds like that would be, you know, a vast majority indeed, if index pricing is quite small.
That's correct.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You bet. Thanks, Kevin.
Your next question is coming from Duffy Fischer at Goldman Sachs.
Yeah. Hi. Just first question on structural raw materials. A year ago, you guys were shorted and couldn't supply your customers what you wanted. Obviously now things are slack in the system. We're seeing prices roll over. If we get back to a normal demand level, let's say next year, are raw materials structurally short again, or have you guys taken steps, and what steps have you taken, to increase the availability of raw materials if we get back to a normal demand level?
Duffy, I would say they will not be structurally short. The availability has recovered very nicely for us. We've taken a number of steps over the past couple of years in response to what we've seen. One of those was certainly our purchase of Specialty Polymers, which has increased our internal resin production. We've worked closely with many of our suppliers. We've simplified the portfolio as well. There are maybe not as many raw materials that we would have to procure as we would have in the past. I don't know-
I'd say that from an assurance of supply, it's very important to understand, Duffy, we're not trying to return to a supply chain of the past. Our goal has been to improve our position and our ability to supply our customers, and we've taken appropriate steps. For competitive reasons, we're not going to lay out what those steps are, but Heidi and her team. Heidi's leaning on the edge of her seat wanting to answer this question. We're not gonna get into those details right here right now. I would tell you that we have been very forward-thinking in how we're going to work through future issues, and we learned a lot during this process. I'd say we're coming out better and smarter as a result.
Fair. A decade ago, the Glidden brand bumped you guys out of Walmart once before, and I think if my notes are right, it was like a $250 million opportunity back then. This time, does it move the needle? It's no longer Dutch Boy, but it's Valspar. Does it move the needle for you guys, or that's kind of a non-event in what we'll see in your printed numbers?
Yeah. We don't think this will really have any impact, to be really candid with you. I think if you look at the business in general, Walmart is still a very important customer to us. We sell them a lot of our key brands such as Minwax, Thompson's, Krylon. While we have, to your point, enjoyed the private label in the past, I think this is a, an exciting opportunity for us as we move forward 'cause we're gonna continue to service the existing brands that we have, and we will look forward to an opportunity in the future. If there comes to be something where we can both create value on both sides or both companies, we'll absolutely be interested in looking at that.
Thank you.
Thanks, Duffy.
Your next question for today is coming from Adam Baumgarten at Zelman & Associates.
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Just one for me. Are there any other businesses at this point in the portfolio that are under strategic review, or are you kind of through that process?
Adam, we look at every business, every brand, every program, everything constantly. We have that discipline.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Adam.
Your next question is coming from Chuck Cerankosky at Northcoast Research.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Hey, Chuck.
When you look at the Paint Stores Group, DIY was up double digits in the quarter, and I think you touched on some of that. In the Consumer Brands Group in North America, DIY was soft. Was there more to talk about there than just short supplies a year ago at paint stores?
Not really, Chuck. I'd say, you know, we had really de-emphasized DIY last year to serve our customers and, so we now have product to sell. So it's on a smaller base because of last year. Again, I think, you know, it's important to mention that, you know, our focus and our success is gonna largely be determined by the professional sales that we have, representing about 90% of what goes through our stores. We'll take the DIY business. We're there. It helps us, but the focus is on our pro business.
Got it. Thank you.
You bet.
Your next question is coming from Garik Shmois at Loop Capital Markets.
Oh, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to follow up just on the inventory fill that you saw in Consumer Brands. Was that across both DIY and pro? Do you expect any of that to bleed into the second quarter?
No. Typically, what we see in our mid-spring and summer selling months are you'd start seeing declines in inventory as we come out of the season. I wouldn't expect to see inventory builds like we saw in our first quarter. I think you'll see a more typical seasonal inventory pattern this year. Raw materials are in a good place, like I said. Through the total supply chain, inventories are in a good place. You know, just to put in perspective, we're back to servicing our customers at the level that we expect to service them at and they expect to be serviced at. I would expect that management of inventory will happen similar to the flow of past cycles.
Got it. Thanks for that. Just wanted to follow up. It doesn't sound like it, but just wanted to confirm if you're seeing any trade down or any change in mix at all, be it in Paint Stores or in Consumer Brands.
No, the opposite. We see a positive mix shift.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Customers that, the customers that have labor as a percentage of sales continue to learn that the higher quality product might cost them a little bit more per gallon, but that they actually make more on a project. Our mix is positive in our stores. Thanks, Garik.
Your next question is coming from Eric Bosshard at Cleveland Research.
A follow-up for you, Allen, I guess. On gross margin, the upside performance in the first quarter or strong performance, however you'd characterize it, I'm assuming there was some benefit from strength in volume. What I'm trying to figure out is the volume behaves differently in the coming quarters as you've talked. Do you build from the one-two gross margin? Is that having an impact on the gross margin? How should we think about the linkage between volume and gross margin as we move through the balance of the year?
Yeah. It certainly because Paint Stores Group had a better, had increased volume, and it's our highest gross margin segment. It certainly improves our gross margin going in the first quarter for sure. I think as you know, we're moderating some volumes, but still, Paint Stores is still gonna be our best performing segment in our second quarter. We do also expect to hang on to the price and get to see that sequential raw material moderation. I think, you know, the volumes help for sure. When Paint Stores Group is stronger than the other segments because of that mix dynamic, it will help our gross margin. I do expect to see sequential and year-over-year improvement in gross margin in our second quarter.
We'll give you an update, Eric, on the rest second half after the second quarter.
Okay. That's all I have. Thank you.
Thanks, Eric.
Your final question for today is coming from Jaideep Pandya at On Field Research.
Thanks. The question really is on industrial wood. Could you tell us when did the destocking actually start? Is there any signs of really, you know, destocking or weaker demand coming towards an end? The second question really is on the multifamily homes. You know, one of your competitors was sort of alluding that there is a decent backlog this year, but there could be some air pocket next year as the projects sort of finish. Do you expect weakness in the multifamily homes or for that matter in commercial/property management in 2024, or it's not something you worry about? Thank you so much.
Well, on the industrial wood and multifamily, I'd say, let me start with the multifamily and work backwards. I'd say our line of sight right now on both commercial and multifamily is strong for the balance of this year and certainly going into next year. We'll see what happens as we move forward, right now our confidence is high and the pipeline is full. We're bidding a good amount of activity with the contractors in this space. I'd say our future looks pretty positively on that. On the industrial wood, timing, you know, it's been under pressure, likely along with the housing.
If you, if you wanna look at housing starts as a good precursor for this business, it's not exact, but will give you some insight as to how that business is behaved. Again, our expectation is that there are opportunities in this business to outpace the market and in all the segments you talked about, multifamily as well as industrial wood. We have teams that are out there focused on growth every day.
Thank you.
You bet.
We have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I will now turn the call over to Jim Jaye for closing remarks.
Yeah. Thank you everybody for joining us today. I did wanna remind you to please save the date for our annual financial community presentation. That will be in Cleveland, as John said, on August 24th. The event will also be webcast. Registration details on that will be available soon, we'll look forward to seeing many of you here. To close out the call here, you heard today that we're off to a very good start to the year with today's results. At that same time, our team knows we still have work to do, and we're prepared to do that. We know there's gonna be macro headwinds as the year progresses, we'll deliver strongly in those conditions. We're gonna remain focused on what we can control. Thank you for attending today.
As always, I will be available along with Eric Swanson for your follow-up phone calls. Thanks for your interest in Sherwin. Have a great day.
This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your