Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Feb 3, 2022

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Skyline Champion Corporation's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Call. The company issued an earnings press release yesterday after the close. I would like to remind everyone that yesterday's press release and statements made during this call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations and projections. Such risks and uncertainties include the factors set forth in the earnings release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, during today's call, the company will discuss non-GAAP measures, which it believes can be useful in evaluating its performance. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the earnings release.

I would now like to turn the call over to Mark Yost, Skyline Champion's President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. With me on the call is Laurie Hough, EVP and CFO. Today, I will review our third- quarter results, discuss our activities so far in the fourth quarter, and give some color on the outlook for fiscal 2023. In the third quarter, we continued to see rising levels of demand driven by numerous factors, including favorable financing, historically low inventory levels, and a rapidly growing base of customers looking for a better alternative to site-built homes. Our attractive product offerings at affordable price points continue to drive order rates higher as industry-wide supply constraints and COVID disruptions remain a headwind to our production levels. Strong order rates drove backlogs up $136 million during the third quarter to $1.5 billion, or on average, 43 weeks of production at the end of the quarter.

We anticipate the supply-side challenges to continue at least through the first half of fiscal 2023. We delivered 6,168 homes during the quarter, an improvement of 9% from the prior year. Increased output, along with price increases to cover rising material, labor, and freight costs, drove revenue to $535 million in the third quarter, up 42% from the prior year. Our frontline teams continue to execute exceptionally well in today's very difficult and unpredictable operating environment. As anticipated, our home sales volume versus the sequential second quarter was slightly lower due to planned holiday shutdowns and higher levels of COVID-related absenteeism. Our capacity utilization during the quarter improved sequentially 4 percentage points to 68%.

We continue to see the benefits of streamlining our product offerings, which allows us to produce more without increasing material usage and is particularly beneficial in this environment of persistent material supply shortages. During the quarter, we also completed the integration of ScotBilt operations and are exceeding the anticipated acquisition synergies as we leverage the manufacturing facilities and strategic footprint in the Mid-South region. We remain on track with our other expansion efforts, and I'm proud to report that we are a month ahead of schedule in our production at our Navasota, Texas facility, thanks to our supply partners giving us the material and the incredible team members that have joined us. I'm really impressed with the workforce and the pace at which they are ramping. As we look forward, market conditions are really starting to come together.

We have historic lows on the supply side, while demographic, economic, and migratory factors continue to drive demand. The supply-side housing shortages, combined with higher interest rates and inflationary pressures, are favorable dynamics to our business model. In these conditions, our advantages only get enhanced. As we have seen in past cycles of rising interest rates, we are better able to convert traditional site-built buyers and gain share. Because of these dynamics, we're even more excited to have one of our Genesis homes in Orlando next week for the International Builders' Show. We launched Genesis to help builders during these types of market conditions. The share gains for ourselves and our channel partners will only be heightened by the significant investments we are making on the digital side of our business.

These investments will help to eliminate the friction today's consumer experiences throughout their home- building journey and will provide us with deep analytics to better serve the customer. Strong backlogs fueled by double-digit order rate growth and minimal cancellations, combined with positive market tailwinds and investments, drive our focus on increasing capacity and output. We are continuing to streamline our product offerings and have made very good progress on our long-term plan to incorporate manufacturing technology both on the process and automation side. Our technology partners have done an excellent job solving the unique challenges of our building processes, and we will be accelerating investments in technology during fiscal 2023. Our supply chain partners have also done an incredible job supporting us during these challenging times.

We expect that supply chain challenges will be prevalent throughout the course of this calendar year, as many of our partners have been impacted by COVID outbreaks in the U.S. and overseas. We do anticipate moderate improvement from our supply partners this quarter that will allow us to increase the sequential top line by mid-single digits in our fourth quarter. It is also because of our partners and our people that Skyline again was named the most trusted brand this year. It is only by all of us working together to take care of the customer that we earn their trust. I will now turn the call over to Laurie to discuss our quarterly financials in more detail.

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by reviewing our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2022, followed by a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flows. I will also briefly discuss our near-term expectations. Net sales increased by 42% to $535 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 versus the same quarter last year. We generated revenue growth of $148 million in the U.S. factory-built housing segment, as well as growth in our Canadian factory-built housing segment of $11 million. The increase in U.S. factory-built revenue was driven by an increase in the number of homes sold and an increase in average selling price per home.

The increase in the number of homes sold was 9% or 489 units for a total of 5,832 homes compared to the same quarter last year. The average selling price per U.S. home sold increased by 32% to $83,000, primarily due to price increases in response to rising material, labor, and freight costs, as well as changes in product mix. The sequential growth in revenue in the U.S. factory-built housing segment was 2.7% compared to the second quarter. The increase in revenue was driven by a 3.9% increase in average selling price per new home, partially offset by a 1.2% decline in the number of homes sold.

The sequential decline in the number of homes sold was due to the planned manufacturing shutdowns to perform routine maintenance as well as planned holidays. We also experienced a higher level of COVID-related absenteeism during the month of December, which has continued to disrupt production run rates in January. Canadian revenue increased 40% to CAD 37 million compared to last year, as the number of homes sold increased 6% to 336 units. The average home selling price in Canada of CAD 109,900 increased 33% versus the same quarter last year, driven primarily by pricing actions enacted in response to rising material costs.

Consolidated gross profit increased to $157 million, up 119% versus the same quarter last year due to increased sales volume and higher pricing to offset rising material, labor, and freight costs. Our U.S. housing segment gross margins were 29.6% of segment net sales, up more than 1,000 basis points from the third quarter last year due to focused product simplification and material rationalization to improve operating efficiencies in order to better leverage increased production and manufacturing fixed costs. Gross margins were also positively impacted by price increases in response to rising material and labor costs and the timing of certain price adjustments for raw materials under our buying programs.

SG&A in the third quarter increased to $66 million from $44 million in the same period last year, primarily due to higher variable compensation, the impact of the acquisition of the ScotBilt operations in February 2021, and our continued investment in the enhanced customer buying experience. We expect further incremental investments in the online customer experience and systems integration through fiscal 2023. Net income for the third quarter was $68 million or $1.18 per diluted share compared to net income of $22 million or earnings of $0.38 per diluted share during the same period last year. The increase in EPS was driven by a combination of higher revenue and improved profitability.

The company's effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.6%, an increase from last year due to recognition of a tax benefit related to a U.S. R&D tax credit in the prior year third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $97 million, an increase of over 200% versus the same period a year ago. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 960 basis points to 18.1% due to higher sales, gross margin improvement, and an increase in fixed cost leverage. Looking forward, we expect inflation on building products and labor costs to remain persistent through the first half of fiscal 2023, due primarily to the widespread supply chain challenges on top of elevated levels of demand.

We utilized several levers in response to increasing material and labor costs, including price adjustments, product standardization, raw material substitutions, and further operational improvements. Despite our efforts to continue to pass on inflation and make operational improvements, our production continues to be impacted by the availability and timeliness of raw materials due to supply chain challenges, including the volatility and magnitude of the cost changes of raw materials. During our fiscal fourth quarter, we expect to see some compression in gross margin versus the sequential third quarter due to the recent volatility in forest product inflation. In the third quarter, we benefited from our lumber spot buying program and the temporary dip in forest product pricing that will increase in the March quarter given the recent increases in lumber costs.

As of January 1st, 2022, we had $382 million of cash and cash equivalents and generated $76 million of operating cash flows during the quarter. We remain focused on executing on our operational initiatives to enhance our production capabilities, resulting in higher output levels. Our favorable liquidity position allows us the ability to continuously reinvest in the business and to support strategic growth. I'll now turn the call back to Mark for some closing remarks.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thanks, Laurie. We are very pleased with our third quarter and year-to-date results. I'm encouraged with the solid momentum in our business despite the turbulent environment that we are operating in. Our strong backlog and investments to transform home building have us well- positioned to solve the growing need for our homes. With that, operator, you may now open the lines for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting our question- and- answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question is coming from the line of Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Thank you. Good morning, Mark. Good morning, Laurie. Congrats on obviously a pretty exceptional quarter. Maybe start with the prepared remarks. I think, Mark, you said sequential growth mid-single digits going into this quarter. Did I hear that right? It was that revenue, volume, how do we think about that?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Dan, we are looking at that as kind of top-line revenue growth. With the supply chain starting to rebound a little bit, we think there's a little bit of sequential improvement quarter-over-quarter.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Perfect. Very helpful. Do we, as we, you know, open the facility in Texas, do you expect or would you expect some continued sequential unit volume growth as we move into the, say, first half of fiscal 2023? You know, or is that TBD based on supply chain, other challenges, etc. ?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

You know, obviously supply chain would be a critical factor, but I would expect sequential improvement as supply chain starts to ease up throughout the calendar year.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Got it. Laurie, care to make our lives a little easier? Thank you for the color on gross margin. Obviously, you know, some changes in terms of timing of buying and lumber price patterns. You know, what type of, let's say, compression might we look for in this fiscal quarter? Would that be a sustainable run rate going forward?

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Hi, Dan. Yeah, we certainly saw in the third quarter some favorability in our gross margin because of the spot buying program for lumber. As everybody is seeing, those costs are certainly increasing pretty steadily and quickly. In addition, we had higher levels of COVID absenteeism that filtered into January and throughout the month that are going to also impact gross margin. I'm expecting that margins will balance out somewhere between what we saw in the second quarter and the third quarter. Of course, keeping in mind at the EBITDA margin level, we're gonna see some increases in SG&A sequentially.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Very helpful. Lastly for me, maybe just talk about what are the biggest bottlenecks right now from a supply chain perspective? I know it's been a game of Whac-A-Mole, but is there anything specific you'd call out and you know, just to get a better sense of when how long it might take for those to alleviate. Thank you for the color again.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Daniel, I think, you know, supply chain is a game of Whac-A-Mole, as you mentioned. Right now, I would say that the biggest challenges are things like duct work and other things like that. Small electrical components are still clearing through the system. Different colors and specific grades of like roofing shingles, other things like that are difficult to come by. It really changes day by day, and it's inconsistent. That's why, you know, we'd see some improvement and kind of a steady improvement since we've come out of the, I'll call it holiday shipping season, but it's not consistent. That's why we're confident we can ramp. We're confident we can bring Navasota and further bring Navasota online.

It's really just a timing issue of when the supply chain fills up throughout the calendar year.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Got it. I'll jump back with any follow-ups. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Greg Palm with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please proceed with your question.

Greg Palm
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions, and I will add my congratulations as well.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thanks, Greg. Good morning.

Greg Palm
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Maybe to start, can you talk about, you know, what you're seeing in terms of order rates year-to-date?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. Order rates have been good year-to-date. Obviously, it's January, so normally there's a lot of volatility in order rates. I would say, you know, overall, I would expect backlogs during the quarter to be relatively flat. Order rates are still very good.

Greg Palm
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Got it. In terms of the, you know, the types of customers, maybe the types of new customers that you may be seeing out there, I think you mentioned that this is the type of environment where you'd expect to take meaningful share from site build. Maybe you can kind of help flesh out those comments a bit more.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, sure, Greg. I think there's a few factors here. One is we're seeing high inflationary pressures across the board, mainly driven on the material side and the labor side. If you think of our competitiveness versus our site build competitors, we use substantially less labor per home than site builders do. We use substantially less material than most site builders do. As a result, in inflationary times, we become much more cost-effective, and our position on the cost curve gets much better. That's one key driver, is that just our efficiencies really come to shine in inflationary times. Plus, when you look at our general business model, we generate tremendous amounts of cash. We can grow our top-line revenue with very minimal CapEx investment, and we're able to pass on inflationary, you know.

We can raise prices to offset inflation. I think those dynamics of our business model are very good. I think that's compounded favorably by interest rate increases, because if you look with higher price expectations coming out from site builders and with interest rate increases, you know, just even the most recent stats on new site builds were, I think, $404,000 median price per home in the fourth calendar quarter on average. If you assume interest rates go up 0.5%, then the average customer can afford $24,000 less home with interest rate increases. They're gonna be forced to find a different alternative or incentivized to find a different alternative t hat really plays into us and really plays into the fact that builders are gonna start to switch to an off-site model to be successful.

Greg Palm
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Makes sense. That's helpful. You know, last one, you know, circling back to gross margin. If we think about the go-forward periods, and we make some assumptions around demand staying at elevated levels and, you know, capacity and volumes ramping up, hopefully you're not gonna see the same levels of sort of COVID absenteeism and even some of the supply chain issues that are likely impacting gross margin. Is there any reason not to think that as those volumes increase throughout fiscal 2023, that you won't see, you know, at least a modest lift to gross margin relative to, you know, what you're thinking at least for the current quarter?

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Greg. You know, there will be some efficiencies that come through as we continue to simplify our product offering and increase production output. The majority of our cost of sales is variable. You know, we'll see some improvement as we continue to focus on the product simplification initiatives and efficiencies.

Greg Palm
Senior Research Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay, great. All right, I'll leave it there. Thanks and good luck.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Matthew Bouley
Senior Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products, Barclays

Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions, and congrats on the results. Question on, I guess customer qualification and risk of cancellations, given how long they're in the backlog. I think you said 43 weeks. Now, I know you guys are relatively protected in terms of, you know, dealers having to take ownership when you start construction, and I know you've done all the work around, you know, testing that backlog. I'm just curious, in this rate environment, if you know, I guess number one, what is happening with chattel rates?

Number two, just what is that risk, you know, before you start construction, the, you know, buyers are in this backlog for a long time, that they either fall out of qualification or have a change of heart, I guess, related to financing rates? What's the risk of all that? Thanks.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Matt. Thank you. You know, I think overall, we've seen very low cancellations, very low cancellation rates thus far. You know, generally, when a dealer puts a home online, they will generally re-qualify the customer prior to that home going on to production. In other words, before it's produced, there's generally a discussion to re-qualify the customer to make sure before that dealer puts that order in, that the customer can re-qualify at that time. Obviously, if there's extreme volatility in rates at that, you know, post that, then before close, there could be a window. Generally, that's just a few week time period. So we have good visibility going forward on those issues.

I think right now what we're seeing is most customers are able to still qualify. Actually, most of our credit scores are good. We're growing customer base of first-time home buyers who actually have really good income and really good credit scores. They're not on the bubble necessarily. When they're going from a $400,000 site-built price and they're moving to a better alternative at a more affordable price, they can actually qualify and keep that home up to date.

Matthew Bouley
Senior Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products, Barclays

Makes sense. No, that's great color there, Mark. Thank you for that. Second one, I have to go back to the gross margin. I believe, you know, Laurie, the—I don't know if I'm reading too much into this, but the first things you mentioned around the gross margin were the product simplification and material rationalization. I know obviously you discussed the benefit of lumber prices there as well. Just speaking, you know, specifically on the simplification and rationalization efforts, are those structural at this point, or are those, you know, kind of a function of just the tight supply environment? Those efforts may not kind of stick in a more normalized environment, for lack of a better term. Thank you.

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Hi, Matt. No, I would say that they're more structural changes. You know, it varies by plant, how far along in the process of simplification we are, but definitely more structural.

Matthew Bouley
Senior Equity Research Analyst of U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products, Barclays

Okay, perfect. Thanks much, and congrats again on the results.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research of Homebuilders and Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, and sorry to keep harping on the gross margin side. You know, I'm hoping for a little more quantification of the lumber dynamics because you didn't seem to get hurt by that much when lumber spiked last year, but in proportion, the benefit from a temporary dip late in calendar 2021 seems, you know, far in excess of what the spike last spring hurt you by. Can you just go into a little more detail on, you know, exactly what was the benefit in the quarter from lumber, and have you made changes to your spot program or just elaborate a little bit more on the spot versus contracts?

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Sure. We have made changes. The percentage of spot buy versus contract varies by plant, Mike, and it also varies based on the price of the SKUs. During this quarter, we bought more lumber at lower prices through the spot buying program with the anticipation that it would go up. It's as simple as that. We aren't quantifying it publicly.

Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research of Homebuilders and Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Okay, thanks. My second question is when we think about the demand, the backlog, obviously the overarching kind of widespread supply constrains availability of material and labor, I get that. But when you think about your capacity relative to where you're seeing the most demand growth and the most backlog growth, can you just talk about, you know, whether you think geographically your capacity is positioned the right way today, obviously inclusive of what you're bringing on, or if there are further adjustments in terms of where you have capacity that you think are needed in light of the demand trends that you've seen evolve?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Mike, I think, you know, there's two parts to that question. The first is, I think we're positioned geographically well for the demand trends that are out there. If you look at migratory factors in the U.S. and where people have relocated to, you know, I think we've been growing our presence in those states. So the Carolinas, Georgia through Florida, Texas, you know, there's been a tremendous amount of migration to those regions. So I think we've opened up capacity, bought capacity in those regions in advance to take advantage of that. You know, as far as are we positioned well for the demand, I would say that we are, we need more capacity.

With the number of orders that we're turning away and rejecting every day, it's, you know, we're passing on so many orders today that, we definitely need more capacity today, throughout. I would say it's probably in those same geographies I would mention, but, you know, I think it's throughout the entire country. You know, some additional capacity in Eastern Canada would be good. There's tremendous housing demand out there. I would say generally speaking, there's very few regions of the U.S. that are softer on capacity. There's one or two geographies that are a little soft. It could be seasonal due to weather in some of the northern climates. You know, Great Plains regions, not as robust as other regions.

You take Texas through Oregon and draw a line there of the U.S., and there's fantastic demand there. I think, you know, growth of demand, I mean, our order rates have outpaced every home builders by a large margin this past calendar year. We've turned away more orders than our backlog. It's a pretty robust demand.

Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research of Homebuilders and Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

All right, thanks for that, Mark. Maybe my last one, just. Yeah, I certainly understand and appreciate your point of view on kind of the potential conversion factor for MH versus site-built as you see affordability shifts, and some of that makes sense. If I take a step back, you know, manufactured housing did decline in 2018 and 2019 alongside site-built housing the last time we saw a rate shock. You know, I guess I'm not really seeing it in the data that there were these share gains just a few years ago, and some of the same arguments could have been made.

Maybe talk through, you know, what you see as the differences in, you know, this upcoming year or next couple of years versus, you know, maybe just a few years ago when that dynamic didn't play out.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. I think a few things. One, if you go back through history, if you look at, I think we have historical data in our investor presentation, you go back to, let's say, the 1970s. I know that's not the time period you were mentioning, but the 1970s, you know, we saw, as a manufactured housing industry, robust growth, very extraordinarily robust growth. And that was a period of, you know, obviously higher inflationary rates and pressures that we're similarly faced with in today's current environment and outlook. I think part of the difference in that dynamic you're referring to is the fact that we didn't have financing back or as much financing, if you will, back just a few years ago.

If you recall, I think spreads just as recently as 22 years ago, spreads to traditional mortgages were double what they are now. You know, I think when you see rising interest rates, at that point in time, we still had extraordinarily high spreads and mostly cash-only buyers during that period of time. I think the housing market's a little different. I think the financing environment's a little different, you know, that's out there today than what we saw previously. And also, there's a little bit of different tone in terms of the communities like Sun, ELS, UMH. A lot of the REIT buyers were in a different place back in 2018 and 2019, and they generally make up 35%-40% of MH demand as an industry.

I think they were on more on the sidelines at those period of time. Obviously, with the rental market outlook and the housing market outlook, that's very different today. The build for rent, the capital that's flowing into the build for rent channel, let alone the land lease communities, is very robust. I think it's a very different tone today. I think when the housing market dipped previously, I would look at it, you know, look at the pricing environment, look at the difference in spreads and interest rates, look at the REIT channel and their demand at that per-period of time. All those factors are vastly different today.

Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research of Homebuilders and Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks for that.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah.

Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research of Homebuilders and Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Appreciate the perspective. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. This is actually Colin on for Phil. I just wanted to follow up on the financing environment you were just talking about. Can you give a little bit more color or maybe quantify the size of the spread between MH lending and the traditional 30-year mortgage just after the recent move in mortgage rates? Then do you expect any air pocket in demand in calendar year 2022 as higher rates are digested by homebuyers?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

I think, Colin, there's a few factors there. One, the spreads I think right now are 2 basis points-250 basis points, traditional mortgages. That's holding, you know, to where it's been last quarter. I think as mortgage rates move to the 30-year, you'll see that spread bump around there. It's a constant spread. As far as pockets, I don't see pockets so much as interest rates move as much. I think there will be likely some housing pressures that happen later this calendar year. Single-family starts have outpaced completions in the housing home building world.

I think there's gonna be a kind of a work in process catch up where you have give or take, you know, 140,000 homes that come to market as supply chain improves because they're caught between that housing starts and completion. I think you'll see a little bit of a, you know, a thing where you see a bunch of houses come to market. It really doesn't offset the low supply in the existing homes. There will be a little bit of gap there, but nothing to be concerned with long term.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful color. Just on your production rates, you've been able to increase those over the past several quarters. Can you just talk about where you are, I guess, in the long-term process of improving those rates and give us some goalposts for where you think you can get in terms of quarterly or annual production over the next couple of quarters and maybe on a longer- term basis?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. Colin, we're not giving guidance, but I will tell you know, it really depends on supply chain. Right now, we've got seven idle plants that we would look to bring on and restart at the appropriate time, as supply chain improves and market dynamics continue. I think those plants would be enhanced as we start up. Obviously, our current existing plants are operating less than efficiently because of material shortages and resequencing of production. Obviously, there will be some enhancements in production as supply chain improves. I do foresee that supply chain will be volatile throughout this calendar year, you know, it might recover by late in the calendar year, but it'll be volatile nonetheless in the short term.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please proceed with your question.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, could you remind us in your COGS basket, how does steel fit in there? Are you seeing any benefit from the recent price declines in that commodity?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. Jay, I think obviously steel pricing factors in for our HUD-related products that are on steel chassis. It's not meaningful. You know, it pales in comparison to lumber. You see some of that relief in there, but it's not significant.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

Figured I'd at least highlight one commodity that's going down instead of up. My second question, you were talking earlier about the communities. Could you maybe talk about where your business trends are with them and maybe what type of volume increases you saw year-over-year in the third quarter?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. We don't disclose sales by channel, but I think the community channel's been very strong and active. You know, if you look at most of the communities, UMH, especially the public ones, which are probably representative of others, ELS, Sun Communities have very, very strong greenfield development in terms of their processes, and where they're going. I think, you know, we see tremendous upside and they're clamoring for product. That trend is definitely out there in terms of growth. The retail channel and our retail distribution partners very strong demand. Order rates are up. They're producing very well. The park model, tiny homes, ADU models are up. Really we're seeing benefits in demand across. It's really more of how we allocate our limited capacity to fill that demand today.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

Okay. Exciting to hear that the Texas plant is ramping fairly quickly. Can you give us an update on the plants you purchased in the Carolinas? Any progress on those?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

We acquired two plants in North Carolina. We're really waiting on supply chain. You know, once we get firm commitments on supply chain and have visibility, you never wanna start a plant and train the labor and get everyone up to speed only to idle the plant three weeks into your ramp. That doesn't go well. You need enough supply and certainty of supply and consistency of supply to ramp into it. We will bring on plants in the right geographies. Obviously, we're bullish on Carolinas, you know, as the market dictates and the supply chain dictates.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

It's really no change from what you were seeing last quarter in terms of being able to get consistent supply into those plants?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Correct.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

Okay. The last question I have, I thought it was very interesting that the FHFA rejected the GSE's latest Duty to Serve submissions. Didn't know if you had any kind of high-level thoughts about that and anything new or notable in terms of GSE interaction with the MH industry, since we talked on the second quarter call.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah. No, nothing really new on that front and nothing really surprising in terms of the interaction between the departments. You know, fortunately for us, I think there is a strong enough secondary market and some private secondary offerings that have happened to bring in capital. You know, those are not an impediment right now to any of the demand trends we're seeing.

Jay McCanless
Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush

Okay. Sounds great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad at this time. Our next question is coming from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Thanks again. Maybe one or two follow-ups. Just putting together some of the commentary, Mark, the historical perspective is really helpful. Any sense of where, obviously not Skyline Champion, but just where in general, you know, margin profiles were, either gross margin or EBITDA, you know, during periods of high inflation rising rates like the seventies that you mentioned previously?

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

I don't have information that goes back that far, Dan, but, you know, I just look at it during times of inflationary pressure, you know, generally the industry is able to pass on price increases and maintain margins. Obviously, there's some short-term volatility in terms of, you know, you gotta work with customers if their loan is out there and you wanna do stuff. Over the cycle, you're able to pass on price increases as a whole and maintain your margins. I would say during inflationary times, obviously the ASPs of site builders, because of their significant inefficiencies versus us, are gonna be higher on a relative basis, over time. I think, you know, passing on price increases and keeping it affordable is very doable.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Understood. One more, just in terms of usage of cash. You can ramp CapEx, and you are obviously reinvesting in the business, but even at higher rates probably can't keep up with the level of cash flow, of cash generation. Would you consider alternatives like buybacks, you know, to take advantage of periods of share price volatility like we've seen year to date? Or, you know, kind of sticking with the status quo in terms of capital allocation priorities? Thanks again.

Laurie Hough
EVP and CFO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Yeah, Dan. You know, we're continuing to invest in the business through opening up additional idled capacity as well as production automation, R&D, and our customer-facing website enhancements. That's our major focus for capital allocation today.

Daniel Moore
Partner and Director of Research, CJS Securities

Okay. Appreciate the color again.

Operator

Thank you. We have no additional questions at this time, so I'd like to pass the floor back to management for any closing remarks.

Mark Yost
President and CEO, Skyline Champion Corporation

Thank everyone for taking the time this morning to dial into our call. We appreciate it. Look forward to the future as we solve and transform home building as we know it. Take care. Stay safe. Stay amazing. Take care.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

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