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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 3, 2023

Operator

If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press the star one. Thank you. Jennifer Samuels, Vice President, Investor Relations and ESG Stewardship, you may begin your conference.

Jennifer Samuels
VP of Investor Relations and ESG Stewardship, SM Energy Company

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. First off, I do apologize for any inconvenience yesterday for the delay in posting all of the quarterly materials. Our third-party web host had technical issues. I guess reporting on the busiest day can overload the system. We may reference those materials today, including the investor presentation and call transcript, during today's Q&A call. Thank you for joining us this morning. To answer your questions today, we have our President and CEO, Herb Vogel, and CFO, Wade Purcell. Before we get started, I need to remind you that our discussion today may include forward-looking statements and discussion of non-GAAP measures.

I direct you to Slide two of the accompanying slide deck, page 5 of the accompanying earnings release, and the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K, which describe risks associated with forward-looking statements that could cause actual results to differ. We may also refer to non-GAAP measures. Please see the slide deck appendix and earnings release for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and discussion of forward-looking non-GAAP measures. Also, look for our second quarter Form 10-Q file this morning. With that, I will finally turn it over to Herb for a brief opening commentary. Herb?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before we get started, I just wanted to reiterate a few key messages this quarter. Our return on capital program has been well-received, with the repurchase of $ 2.6 million shares in the quarter and $ 5.3 million since inception of the program last September. Including our sustainable dividend, we have returned $221 million to stockholders since September, for a 6% yield over nine months based on the June 30th market cap. Execution was solid in the second quarter, building on a very solid first quarter. We're very pleased to have increased production guidance, reduced CapEx guidance, and geared up to add a rig in October that will help drive slightly higher oil growth in 2024.

People who have followed us know that our ability to build inventory organically really differentiates SM. We've added 29,100 net acres this year to date in the Midland Basin, a 35% increase, and the team is excited with these latest 20,000 acres to target more Dean potential, which today has been the producing interval in some of our very best wells in the Midland Basin. I've got to say, this is the best way to add true value to an E&P company. The first half of 2023 puts SM on a trajectory for an excellent year. With that, I'll turn it back to Rob to start taking your questions. Rob?

Operator

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Zach Parham from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Zach Parham
Executive Director, Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thanks for taking my question. I guess first off, just like cash return, you all returned a significant amount of free cash flow through buybacks over the last couple of quarters. In the second half of the year, your free cash flow is set to expand as production increases and CapEx declines. How should we be thinking about your buyback in the second half? Will you continue to utilize 70%+ of free cash flow to buy back stock? Maybe just talk about how the stock price plays into how you're thinking about the buyback?

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Hey, good morning, this is Wade. A great question. Yeah, you know, I guess all I can say there is, you know, $500 million authorized. We've now used $166 million of that, $334 million to go. I think, I did say in the remarks that the current price looks very attractive to us. I probably shouldn't speculate any more than that. I think if I were you, I would just kind of model the remainder, pretty, you know, pro rata, the rest of this year and into 2024.

Zach Parham
Executive Director, Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thanks, Wade. Maybe just one on the new operating position, the 20,000 acres. You know, can you just talk a little bit more about your development plans on that new acreage? I know you've talked about developing the Dean there, but, you know, when will you start to initially drill some wells there? When should we expect to see some results?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Zach, this is Herb. I think we flagged this at your conference in June, but we're picking up a fourth rig in the Permian Basin in the fourth quarter, and we're going to be first going into another part of Rockstar and then moving over to the acreage as soon as we're ready. We, we should start drilling on that acreage late in the year, and then we'll continue on into 2024. We haven't budgeted how much of the year we'll be doing that. We'll be doing the normal efficient pad execution in terms of when we put the frac spread on there and how quickly we'll, we'll do it. We're, we're just lining out the plans now. We're really excited about it.

You know, this is, this is the sort of play that, our, our best wells have been in the Dean, and, so we're really excited to see what we can do up here. We, we do have a lot of confidence, given offset well data, both vertical and horizontal wells. That's really the, the plan. No more than that.

Zach Parham
Executive Director, Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thanks, Herb and Wade. Really appreciate the responses.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Oliver Wang from TPH and Company. Your line is open.

Oliver Wang
VP and Equity Research Analyst, THP & Co.

Good morning, Herb, Wade, and team. Congrats on the strong quarter, and thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to kind of follow up on the Martin Dawson acquisition a little bit more.

I know you all are very excited about the asset, having highlighted the Dean and Middle Spraberry sand intervals as key targets. Just any, any initial thoughts in terms of how you all are planning to develop the asset from a spacing perspective? Also, what's the opportunity set to other zones within the area, and any color with respect to HBP commitments that you all might have to carry out, if any?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yeah, Oliver. First of all, you know, this is not your usual stacked mudrock Permian play. In this area, we're really targeting much more conventional sands with higher porosity, and it's really oil-saturated rock, and that underpins the prolific wells. With the. The type curve characters is a bit different than your normal plays. It's, it's quite good from an economic standpoint. Right now we're looking at optimizing the lateral length, and, as part of that, we'll be, putting the spacing in at, what will optimize our economics. You know, we use the same approach, throughout, where we really look at the incremental return for the last well assigned to a DSU. That'll, that'll basically be, be making sure that we achieve great economics on the wells. That's, that's really the, the, the story there.

We'll be getting some well results there. It'll probably be, you know, in the first half of next year, we should get some well results from up there, but there's already been quite a bit of offset drilling too. Just to the southeast of it, we have our best wells ever in the Permian Basin that are in the Dean.

Oliver Wang
VP and Equity Research Analyst, THP & Co.

Okay, that's helpful color. Just for a second question, in South Texas, certainly great to see the positive ops update out of there. Just really trying to understand the oil handling project a little bit better. It sounds like it's completed at this point, but just are, are we now at the point where volumes from the Austin Chalk can be flowed in the most optimal way, or is there still some level of constraint? How should we think about future investment on this front? Does this all pretty much satisfy any sort of growth that we might see over the next couple of years?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yeah, Oliver, I'm just gonna refer back to what we said, about a year ago. We were expanding the pipeline to carry the oil out, over a three-year period, progressively synced up with where we were developing. Last year, we did the first part. This year, we did the second part, and we finished that early in the second quarter, and there will be a second extension of that pipeline next year. The constraints are, are relieved at this time. The, the only time that we would actually, wind up with constraints is if we put a couple of really oily pads on adjacent to each other, that can flow quite strongly. It doesn't affect the wells at all. It just means it stretches out how long, they see a plateau longer.

We're doing that very efficiently, we try and schedule things so that we mitigate that. You know, we, we wanna bring the wells on timely and efficiently, and that's what drives it. Bottom line is, yes, the constraints are relieved. The constraints will continue to pop up if we don't manage things tightly, but we're planning to manage things tightly.

Oliver Wang
VP and Equity Research Analyst, THP & Co.

Awesome. Thanks for the color, Herb.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

You bet.

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thanks for taking my questions, everybody. I think Oliver hit on, on, on one I planned to ask. So, if I could pivot to the, the mystery, you know, Midland Basin asset. You know, you talked about 9,100 net acres. I, I was wondering, you know, I'm trying to think about that in context of, of the cash on the balance sheet right now, and, and your decision kind of not to redeem, your, your notes that are callable at par right now. How, how, how big is this opportunity set that, that you're, you're pursuing? Do you think you're close to kind of getting the, the acres put together that you want? And, you know, is there a time when you may be able to sort of share some more information with the marketplace?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yeah, Tim, I think we mentioned this before at the JP Morgan conference, that, we're, we're still, see some opportunity to get additional acreage around that. I'll just give you a heads up that on, on that Slide 13, we show 2023 newly acquired acres. That's only the, the most recent 20,000 acres. We haven't disclosed yet where the 9,100 acres are, that we'd, we'd like to expand. We haven't really given more color. We will at some point, and, once we have some wells in there, we'll, we'll, we'll be sharing the results. You won't be seeing those until, you know, mid-next year sort of timing, based on the way we're, we're planning to go about things.

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Yeah, I'll just add to that on your balance sheet question, Tim. It's a good one. You know, it's carrying the cash right now for me, is pretty close to a no-brainer. Those 2025 notes don't mature for two years, and the coupon is, you know, five and five-eighths. Our cash is earning pretty close to 5% now, so it's not a big negative carry to be able to, you know, to be more conservative and opportunistic and have some cash and liquidity is always a good thing.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. That makes sense. One more question, I guess, circling back on, on sort of the Dean opportunity. Herb, I, I spoke to you in December, and you, you know, you went into great detail on, on, on your, your, your view on, on how good and prolific the, the formation is. Do you believe there's kind of more potential? add kind of Dean inventory, and I, and I was hoping to pin you down a little more on sort of spacing. You know, can we think about this traditionally in, like, a four wells per unit type development?

Just trying to give a little more context on kind of what you see there, because there's been some debate in the marketplace, and you seem sort of firmly, you know, in the view that this is a distinct and, and highly prolific, you know, area.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Tim, I understand why people would have different views about it. It's really it doesn't work everywhere. You have to really understand the geoscience and the nature of the sands, where they are, and where they are oil saturated, and where the porosity is strong that would allow for high productivity. That takes quite a bit of detailed mapping. You can really start with the vertical wells, and then it helps when there's offset horizontals to confirm the thought process that you have. I would say it isn't for everyone on everyone's acreage, but there are certain areas where it will work extremely well, and that's what we've honed in on, and we've mapped throughout the basin and said, "Okay, here's the Dean. Dean works.

Here, the Dean would be wet, and here, the Dean, the sands are too thin. Here, the sands are really thick. We've, we've mapped that through to identify the sweet spots that will give, what I call top-tier returns, which is what we've had in our existing Northwest Rockstar position, which underpinned our Dean performance.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Okay, that's, that's helpful. I guess we should think about this as sort of an ongoing process to, to continue to, to find more inventory perspective for the Dean?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yeah.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Or do you think you've kind of got-

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

I would say, I would say we know where the inventory is, and then it's whether we can get access to the land or not.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Okay, fair enough. Then if I could just sneak one last one in to sort of close the loop on the oil handling question. So in theory, there could be some constraints next year, you know, if there's issues with the build-out, but that piece next year, would that sort of handle your, your medium-term development, you know, in South Texas for many years once that final build is done next year?

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yes. That, that would do it, Tim. It's just the last, southernmost extension of that line, is all we'll have left. We'll make sure we get it in there before we bring the pads on. You know, it's unlikely that we get pads on early, but if it does happen, you know, that, that, that's always an issue. In this case, we're, we're, we're ahead of it.

Tim Rezvan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. I appreciate all the answers. Thank you.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

You bet.

Operator

Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Scott Hanold
Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, thanks. You all gave some pretty good color on, on, you know, how you think about buybacks. You know, maybe a little context of, you know, the, the, the dividend side of things. Do you feel comfortable with where it is? Do you want? You know, what, what do you think about the yield and, and you know where that, you know, might go, be going forward?

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Hi, Scott. It's Wade. good question. you know, we kind of established that dividend level, I guess, last September, October, so we'll be coming up on a year. you know, I certainly can't predict anything at this point, but as we said, we'll reassess occasionally, and you can assume we'd be doing that soon and decide whether we wanted to, you know, to increase it or not, or leave it where it is based on our view of, you know, the market and commodity and free cash flow generation in the coming years. Stay tuned.

Scott Hanold
Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets

If you could give some context on, like, how do you think about sizing that? Is, you know, do you want it to be, you know, competitive with, you know, some peers in this mid-cap, with larger caps, with the S&P 500, a % of, you know, cash flow? Any kind of view on, like, how you think about sizing it?

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Yeah. No, that's hard to answer at this point, whether we wanna compare it too much with. Who we wanna compare it to, I think is a great question. What we really wanna accomplish is, you know, a very sustainable dividend that shareholders can count on, even, even, even in low commodity price environments. I think we used sixty and three before. So, we'll, we'll, we'll do the same analysis again and determine what we think fits that bill.

Scott Hanold
Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, fair enough. Thinking about 2024, you, you gave, you know, a few breadcrumbs on, on how you're thinking, you know, with that mid-single-digits growth. Can you give some context around? I think there's some context around that, you know, maybe the Permian gets, you know, has a little more momentum going into next year. If, if you can get, kind of discuss how you think about capital allocation and, you know, any kind of further cost savings tailwind that would have some, you know, implications to the budget.

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Yeah. I'll say a word about that, and then Herb, Herb can answer it better. I mean, on... As far as capital allocation, you know, we're gonna be watching real closely the next three months or so and determining what that free cash flow number is gonna look like next year. Deflation is a, is a big question, and it, you know, it appears that costs will be lower next year. Commodity price kind of stabilizing here at a higher level, hopefully. You know, that there, there will, there will be some, you know, some, some, some, allocation decisions coming out of that. Determining how much free cash flow we're gonna have first, I think, is, is gonna be a big, thing for us in the coming months.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Yeah. Scott, I'll just add, yeah, you, you heard exactly right. We do see a mid-single-digit growth. We will be leaning a little bit more into the Midland Basin, you know, just picking up the fourth rig in the fourth quarter, and we haven't identified how long we'll be running it through next year. Just that alone would allocate more to the Permian than we did this year and last year. Obviously, it's oily and commodity environment's quite good for that. That's, that's really what we're, what we're planning to do.

Scott Hanold
Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Appreciate the color. Thanks.

Wade Purcell
CFO, SM Energy Company

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Herb Vogel, I turn the call back over to you for some final closing remarks.

Herb Vogel
CEO, SM Energy Company

Okay. Well, thank you, Rob, and we are very pleased with our first half successes, and we're well positioned to continue this trajectory to build value and deliver returns. Thank you all for your interest, and we look forward to seeing a number of you at upcoming events.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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