Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 28, 2022

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Schneider National, Inc.'s second quarter 2022 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Steve Bindas, Director of IR. Please go ahead.

Steve Bindas
Director of Investor Relations, Schneider National

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Mark Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Bruffett, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Earlier today, the company issued an earnings press release, which is available on the investor relations section of our website at schneider.com. Our call will include remarks about future expectations, forecasts, plans, and prospects for Schneider. These constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under applicable federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. The company urges investors to review the risks and uncertainties discussed in our SEC filings, including, but not limited to, our most recent 10-K and those risks identified in today's earnings release.

All forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this call, and Schneider disclaims any duty to update such statements except as required by law. In addition, pursuant to Regulation G, a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures referenced during today's call can be found in our earnings release, which includes reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Rourke. Mark?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Thank you, Steve, and hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Schneider's second quarter call this morning. In our opening comments, we'll cover our second quarter results, what we're currently seeing in the marketplace, and an update on our full-year guidance. In the second quarter, the market has clearly moved past the chaotic routing guide breakdown and higher tender rejection phase to the more normalized typical seasonality condition that has not existed the last couple of years. In our truckload and intermodal network offerings, we are essentially through the annual allocation award process with our shipper base, and the results of that process indicate that our customers desire and value incumbency and dependability. In general, we have improved our market share at rates that recognize the unprecedented inflationary impacts of wages, equipment, and other operating expenses.

In our second quarter results, you'll see further evidence of the transformation of our multimodal transportation and logistics portfolio to a higher concentration of revenue and earnings in our asset-light segments and the heightened prominence of our dedicated contract configurations in our truckload segment. In the second quarter, 60% of our segment revenues and 53% of our earnings were derived from our two asset-light segments, intermodal and logistics. At $175 million in enterprise earnings, this quarter was our second most profitable in our history, just missing the highest quarter of fourth quarter 2021. The difference was modest equipment disposals and gains this quarter as we deferred planned disposals due to new equipment delivery delays and new business implementations in dedicated and power only.

We see a more material equipment gain step up in the second half of the year that Stephen Bruffett will offer commentary on in a few minutes. We also had meaningful growth in dedicated truckload year-over-year. We have added 1,800 tractors in service within Dedicated Contract Solutions. 47% of that growth was organic and 53% was gained through our MLS acquisition. 280 of those units were added sequentially from the first quarter, and we have several new account startups on the docket for Q3 implementation and a healthy new business pipeline we are navigating through. 60% of our truckload segment tractors are over 6,000 units now reside in dedicated configurations.

That is important because, in general, dedicated contracts are longer term in nature, renew at a greater than 90% rate, are stickier through freight cycles, and our professional drivers prefer the more predictable nature of the work. The diversification and configuration of our portfolio of services has been constructed with the intent of building additional resilience in our results while bringing great multimodal value to our customer community, especially centered around the flexibility and control of container and trailer pools. Let's spend a few moments on intermodal specifically. The western part of the network is highly challenged on fluidity and reliability, and we're working closely with our partners to focus on key areas of improvement so we can move more volume that benefits the rail providers, Schneider, and importantly, our customers. We are seeing customers through their allocation events selectively convert intermodal volumes to over the road.

While this strategy has practical limits, it is more pronounced than prior periods. Through non-overlapping lanes, we are now moving 15% of our Western-based volumes on the Union Pacific. The 15% number means customers are already sourcing new business to us on the UP. We are utilizing and sourcing drivers at new ramp facility locations, and we are working out the process and technology connections with the Union Pacific. In the second quarter, intermodal enjoyed its highest revenue quarter in history on 5% order growth year-over-year and 16% revenue per order improvement. We have lots of runway on box turns when container dwell times at customer unloading locations return to its historical performance standards and as rail fluidity returns, particularly on the western part of the network. Additionally, new container delivery timing is ahead of new chassis deliveries by a couple of quarters.

We expect to start to see more of our planned new chassis deliveries in time for peak season utilization, which also should serve as a boost to container turns. While we are justifiably focused on rail fluidity and box turns in the West, as that's an important component for a high-performance intermodal offering, I should mention that our eastern rail partner, CSX, is performing very reliably, and we continue to enjoy year-over-year order volume growth in the eastern part of the network. I will close my opening remarks on our Logistics segments. Logistics had a remarkable quarter at $47 million in earnings and 9% operating margins, which is well ahead of our long-term margin target range of 4%-6%. Our process tools are very adept in adjusting to the live load, live unload spot market movements, and we grew order volumes throughout the quarter.

Our investments in Schneider FreightPower and digital capabilities continue to lower our cost to serve, enables faster business volume growth than people growth, and this is especially evident in our Power Only offering. Our contract versus spot order volumes in our traditional live load, live unload brokerage toggles between 50% and 60%, depending upon market. Contract has moved higher in that range throughout the recent allocation season, and Power Only continues to grow in prominence and serves as a high-performing and flexible complement to our network offering and truckload. The differentiating feature of our Power Only is that greater than 90% is contracted volumes. While we're collaborative with our truckload segment offering, it is not simply an overflow model, but one where we secure through our revenue management processes, upfront lane commitments via the customer allocation decisions.

As a result, we believe Power Only is resilient as the freight cycle is moderate. Let me turn it over to Stephen Bruffett for his additional commentary on the quarter and look ahead to the second half.

Stephen Bruffett
EVP and CFO, Schneider National

Thank you, Mark. Good morning to everyone on the call, and we appreciate you joining us today. Mark mentioned earlier the strength of earnings in the second quarter, and another way to put that in perspective is to note that adjusted earnings per share were 20% better than our prior best second quarter, which was last year. Also last year's second quarter contained an additional 14 cents of EPS from the combination of equipment and equity gains than did this year's second quarter. The year-over-year increase in the remainder of our operating results was even more pronounced than it first appears. Revenues excluding fuel surcharge increased nearly $250 million over the second quarter of 2021, driven by 20%+ increases at each segment, truckload, intermodal and logistics. Adjusted income from operations increased nearly $50 million year-over-year, with contributions from each segment.

Logistics was the standout contributor with a $30 million increase in earnings compared to the second quarter of 2021. During the second quarter, we closed on the acquisition of Wisconsin-based deBoer Transportation. As previously disclosed, the primary purpose of this deal was to gain access to the equipment. We're well down the path of achieving this objective, and most of the equipment is being deployed in dedicated configurations in support of growth opportunities in our existing operations. The benefits of the acquisition will be phased into our truckload segment beginning with the third quarter. Given the limited deal size and the late quarter timing, there was virtually no impact on our second-quarter results. Regarding our full-year guidance for adjusted diluted earnings per share, the new range of $2.60-$2.70 refines our prior range of $2.55-$2.70.

In essence, we're modestly increasing the midpoint of the range despite lower expectations for equipment gains. Our prior guidance assumed about $40 million in equipment gains for the second half of the year, while our updated guidance includes roughly $25 million. To be clear, this updated EPS guidance does not include any second-half gains or losses from our equity investments. However, our guidance does incorporate our expectations for a moderating but stable operating environment and the return of some seasonality for the remainder of the year. Our guidance for full-year net CapEx is unchanged at $500 million. Given that our first-half net CapEx was $110 million, there's obviously a lot of activity planned for the second half of the year. Our OEM partners have a lot of equipment to deliver, and our team has many units to either onboard or dispose of.

There could be some spillover into next year, but our collective intentions are to execute against the $500 million plan. With that, we'll now open up the call for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. We ask that you limit your questions to one so that others may have an opportunity to ask questions. First question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Great morning. Thank you. Quick follow-up on the Union Pacific comment. The new business that's coming on, how does that compare versus expectations, and where is it coming from? Is that share gain from other IMC, or is that a conversion from trucks? Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Ravi, I would define what's coming on via where we are presently is on non-overlapping lanes that we have with our current providers. It's new origin destination pairs that we haven't had the opportunity to pursue before. It's all kind of new share for us because of the kind of unique nature of those OD pairs.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Great. Just a quick follow-up to Steven. How much did deBoer add to the full year guide?

Stephen Bruffett
EVP and CFO, Schneider National

It's around the edges. Like I said, given the lack of deal size there, it's, you know, the equipment we were after a few hundred trailers and a lesser number than that of tractors. It's just kind of a complementary thing, but a few cents a share.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

Operator

It comes from Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Chappell
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Thank you. Good morning. I don't know if Jim's on the call, if he is, this is for him. If not, I guess, Mark, you could take it. On the intermodal side, you know, obviously, you're going through this transition right now. You spoke about some of the rail service issues that we're all acutely aware of. Your revenue still did really well, you know, both from a volume perspective and a revenue per load perspective. The margin deteriorated, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. I'm trying to get a sense, as we think about the disconnect there, was the operating ratio due to the rail service? Was it due to the, you know, just the arithmetic of fuel?

Were there some, you know, transitional costs that are taking place in the western part of the network as you prepare for next year? How do we think about that full OR cadence going forward?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Great, thank you for the question. There's a little bit of multiple ways to approach that. Certainly we are executing on our current footprint and entirely focused on doing the best job with our customers as we are planning towards and executing and building capability to our futures. We have a foot in both camps, and I'm pleased not only with the execution within the constraints of the fluidity of the network in what we're also seeing is increased unloading times at our customer locations. Just with all of that, I'm really pleased with how we're executing our current and preparing and starting, as I mentioned in my opening comments, down our new path that we'll be fully on next year.

We also have inflation. Certainly, there's some catch up on rail PT costs, and we have also grown our driver fleet to 200 drivers as we prepare for the future. Those are some incremental costs that are into the business in the quarter from a quote-unquote startup standpoint, if you will. Just other inflationary pressures that we're seeing as we're holding onto equipment a little bit longer on the maintenance front. We don't have, just as we've mentioned, not as much gains on sale this quarter than we would typically have in a quarter just based upon the growth in the fleet there.

Jonathan Chappell
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Okay. Should we think about, you know, some of those cost challenges remaining, and that's incorporated then in the guidance expectations for intermodal OR?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I think we have solid performance, and our margins are solid. , we've baked what we expect to both commercially with coming through the allocation season and what we expect our cost position to be for the remainder of the year.

Jonathan Chappell
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Question, Jack Atkins with Stephens. Steve, go ahead.

Jack Atkins
Managing Director and Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay, great. Thank you. Good morning.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Morning, Jack.

Jack Atkins
Managing Director and Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Mark and Steve. . I guess, you know, Mark, I'd love to get your perspective on, you know, sort of the macro and market backdrop. We've kinda heard conflicting comments here through earnings season from different transportation providers. If you could maybe give us your kind of perspective on what your customers are telling you about the trajectory of their business, and you know, how are you thinking about peak season this year around the fourth quarter?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Thanks, Jack. I would say we have probably less visibility into what peak season would look like this year than we had perhaps the last two years from a planning standpoint with our customers. I will tell you, we think the volumes are pretty steady. I think there's a lot of discussion around inventory levels. Many of our retailers tell us they still have several hundred basis points of stock out performance worse than what they had pre-pandemic, which would suggest that the inventory they do have may be some of the wrong inventory based upon the disruptions that everyone's been dealing with.

I still think there's plenty of, and we're seeing in our operations, particularly in the retail space on the vendor side and on the DC to store side, some pretty, what we would consider now more normal seasonality. We lacked seasonality the last couple of years because everything was on full throttle. You really couldn't tell the difference. Now we're just starting to see what we would see more typically, whether it's the Fourth of July season, the back to school season, and how things ebb and flow between vendor inbound and DC to store. A bit more of a normal condition, Jack, is how I would describe it. But I would still say very solid demand and maybe a little different this year.

We're much farther along in the allocation season coming through the second quarter than is typical. We have very little left in the intermodal and truckload network pie to really understand what the second half looks like. We think we're well-positioned, and that's reflective in our guidance.

Jack Atkins
Managing Director and Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay, great. Maybe just a brief follow-up. You said that 15% of your Western rail volumes are on your new partner, Union Pacific. You know, where do you expect that exit rate to be at the end of the year?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Well, we do have some plans, probably not at this point, gonna disclose those. You know, we are focused on the non-overlapping lanes, so that we can get our processes down, that we can show progress to our driver community. We can start to, you know, not have such a stop-start on the exchange as we get into the first of the year. We expect us to build from this number from here. I'm really appreciative of our customers supporting us on that because these are new lanes that we have typically not pursued with our customer community.

I think it speaks to their excitement and their support of what we're trying to do, particularly when we combine what we consider a differentiated experience between what we'll have in the future on the West and a very high-performing Eastern partner with the CSX. We should expect that to continue. I'm a little reluctant to throw a number at you right now, Jack.

Jack Atkins
Managing Director and Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay, understand. Thanks again for the time.

Operator

Next question, Bert Subin with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Bert Subin
Managing Director, Stifel

, good morning, and thank you for the time.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Good morning.

Bert Subin
Managing Director, Stifel

Just a question on the logistics side. What do you see as the growth trajectory of that business if we head into a slower freight year? Obviously, it's been sort of in hyper-growth mode, but to start to think about the pieces of it, you would expect sort of volumes continue to benefit from digital brokerage trends, and Power Only, as you noted earlier, is still growing pretty significantly. Do you think there's a path to that business continuing to grow double digits sort of in the medium term? On the margins, do you think the 4%-6% could become closer to 6% as Power Only takes share there? Thank you.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

All right. We'll unpack several good questions within that. You know, we do expect our logistics, in particular our brokerage element within logistics, to be one of the fastest-growing parts of our portfolio. Even in what we would consider a more moderated market, they had record volume growth, had their record volume in the second quarter from an order count standpoint, really across our configuration, whether it be live or our emerging Power Only. We would expect that to continue. Some of that certainly is because we have a mechanism that it's not simply an overflow model here at Schneider. They have great capability, both digitally and through a heavy telemarketing sales presence to kind of chart their own path and gain their own volumes across all modes.

We'll continue to collaborate, which we do with the Power Only, and we do think that has significant runway, based upon how easy it is for the shipper and the consignee we bring the carrier using our trailer pools. You're right. I think over time, we're looking at what is the appropriate margin range on our long-term targets, and we would expect that as we go through that annual process, there's likely an update to reflect those mix changes over time.

Bert Subin
Managing Director, Stifel

Got it. Thank you. Just a really quick follow-up, just regardless to your dedicated business. You've obviously added a lot of new contracts, and you said you have more to come in the second half. Is it fair to think that you could be doing sort of flat to positive revenue per truck per week in most freight environments next year?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

2023 is the question?

Bert Subin
Managing Director, Stifel

J ust thinking sort of I think on the dedicated side, you know, we think about that being sort of less volatile. You've added a lot of business there, and you're still adding business, and so those contracts should start to sort of extend through 2023. Do you have confidence that that'll be a pretty stable to growing business in most environments?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Got your question. Thank you. , absolutely. Part of the attraction of dedicated, it is from a driver condition standpoint, more stable and consistent in the work patterns which the drivers prefer. But also from a company standpoint, it's more resilient through whatever freight cycles may or may not occur in the future. Our portfolio now being at least 60%, by the time we come out of the year, baked there, we think that is much more defensible.

Bert Subin
Managing Director, Stifel

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question, Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Bascome Majors
Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst, Susquehanna

Mark or Steve, you did an investor perception study with an outside consultant about a month ago. Assuming you've gotten some feedback from that, can you share anything you learned, whether surprising or unsurprising, and how might that inform how you manage the business and/or engage with your investors? Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Hi, this is Steve. I'll tackle that one. It's actually still in process, and trying to throw as wide of a net as we can to elicit solid feedback from the entire investment community, whether they're currently invested in our company or not, and the various voices that contribute to the overall mosaic of the transportation space. So it's still in flight. We've gotten a bit of preliminary feedback, and it will likely help us shape how we do our messaging going forward and so on. To date, haven't seen, you know, something shocking or profound come out of it.

I think there are some adjustments that we can perhaps make in our engagement with the investment community as we go forward, and we look forward to implementing those as we head into next year. It will probably be another month or two before we sit down and get the formal results from that study.

Bascome Majors
Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst, Susquehanna

Thank you.

Operator

Next question, Todd Fowler with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Todd Fowler
Managing Director and Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

G reat. Thanks and good morning. I was wondering if you could speak to your expectations for the truckload fleet, both dedicated and for hire, sequentially in the back half of the year. I'm just curious. It sounds like there's some new business still being onboarded in dedicated. What your expectation would be sequentially for the dedicated fleet. For hire continues to drift a little bit lower sequentially. I'm just curious if this starts to stabilize at some point. Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Yes , thanks for the question. Certainly, as we continue to lean in both organically and acquisitively potentially on dedicated opportunities, you should expect to see us to continue to add growth to that segment of the portfolio. As we stated many times, we're looking to stabilize and have a very healthy and prominent network business, but one that we certainly want to be responsive to the desires of our driver community and make sure that we put them in the best position to be successful long term. It has been feeding to a degree our dedicated growth. That said, we did grow sequentially first quarter, second quarter, about 100 drivers in our network fleet, which was a positive sign.

We're continuing to look for opportunities to continue that momentum. On a growth, strategic growth driver basis in the truckload segment, we would still be focusing predominantly on the growth driver being in the dedicated and specialty service area.

Todd Fowler
Managing Director and Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. That makes sense, Mark. Then just can you comment just generally about the dedicated pipeline? Is that still pretty robust, or has that changed at all, which is some of the way we've seen the overall market settle down a little bit?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

No, we haven't seen really any change in the dedicated pipeline. Again, we're pursuing dedicated that isn't simply trying to capture capacity to cover you know one way or distress type needs. We're pursuing a durable dedicated that adds a specific value to what the customer is trying to do strategically. Therefore, the intent would be for it to be durable then through whatever freight cycle. That's been really our focus for the last several years on that type of dedicated, not a capacity generation type of dedicated.

Todd Fowler
Managing Director and Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right. Okay, good. Okay, thanks for the color this morning.

Operator

Next question, Ariel Rosa with Credit Suisse.

Ariel Rosa
Senior Analyst and Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Great , good morning, gents. Thanks for taking the call. I wanted to ask about the intermodal business. As you think about positioning for 2023, and as I think about what the competitive landscape is looking like in the West, obviously, you have one IMC with BNSF, and you have a number of IMCs who are going to be on UP as we think about 2023. How do you think about differentiating your offering relative to some of your peer IMCs operating on the UP and kind of how Schneider maybe is positioned to win there?

On a related note, I'm just wondering, with the labor negotiations underway at the rails, what impact you might see that as having on the intermodal business?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

All right. Well, thank you for the question. Certainly our approach on this change that we've made in the West was centered squarely on how to create the most differentiation in the marketplace. What I would highlight here is our differentiation on the move is that we're bringing a very large asset-centric approach to the Union Pacific, asset-centric being our own box, our own chassis, and our predominantly company dray model. With that, we're bringing a highly controlled service offering that makes us not only efficient inside the four walls of Schneider, but we're also a great partner with the railroad because of that efficiency, which aligns very closely with precision scheduled railroading concepts.

Secondly, we get to combine uniquely with that asset-based model between the UP in the West and the CSX in the East. We derive specific efficiencies because of those more efficient connections than our current setup. What we're differentiating on is efficiency. What we're de-differentiating on is the experience the customer gets on this controlled asset model. We also bring differentiation on a much different set of unique origin destination pairs as a result of that. That's really the strategic intent behind the change, and nothing to date would suggest that in our dialogue with the market and our customer community, that's the wrong approach.

Ariel Rosa
Senior Analyst and Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thanks so much. Any comment on the impact of labor negotiations and how that might impact your cost structure?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Well, labor is I think one of the constraints we're all feeling, and I believe the rails are no different. They're having enough labor capacity to be as efficient as we want. I will defer to them to respond to what they believe the risks are there.

Ariel Rosa
Senior Analyst and Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Okay, fair enough. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Next question, Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

Jordan Alliger
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

I was wondering, can you talk a little bit about, you know, in truckload thoughts around price negotiations forthcoming and timing of said negotiations and, you know, are you getting any sense or prior or early sense that, you know, it just might be a more challenging discussion point with customers? Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

As I mentioned, we are largely through the allocation season with our two largest network businesses, truckload network and intermodal. The customer community has responded and I think are looking for, quite frankly, less chaos and dependability. Particularly as we align predominantly with trailer pool and container pool shippers, that positions us very favorably. They've also been incredibly supportive of the inflationary impacts around driver wages and equipment. You know, we feel coming out of that process, we feel pretty good, and we feel pretty aligned strategically with our customer base, and we look forward to executing on their behalf. You know, pricing in our view has been reflective of the inflationary costs, and we would expect that to continue.

Jordan Alliger
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Just follow up, and I guess this is more intermodal related, but obviously the rails have had, you know, well-noted service issues. I'm just curious in terms of overall congestion, where else are the pinch points, would you say, aside from the rail networks? Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Well, pinch points are we have seen, and even in our truckload trailer pool, our dwell time at customers now are back to even above peak COVID times. I think that's a condition of still we're not all through the labor constraints or seasonality of vacations and a reoccurrence of COVID that we're experiencing around the country. I think we're still not nearly as fluid. We're not back to any level of historical standards of turning equipment at our customer locations. That would still be pinch point. For us specifically, while we're very pleased from a supply chain standpoint, we've been able to get our container volume increases into the fleet.

We have yet to and we're working on the back half of this year to get caught up on our chassis to cover our chassis increases. We've got some built-in inefficiency in the short term of that, which we expect to remedy in the second half of the year. Outside the well-documented rail plays, those are the maybe two other places I would point you towards.

Jordan Alliger
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks so much.

Operator

Next question, Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

Tom Wadewitz
Managing Director and US Transportation, UBS

G ood morning. Wanted to ask you, Mark, a bit about what you're seeing in terms of capacity and also how you might think sequentially about the brokerage business. So, you know, it's—I guess truckload's a pretty opaque market. It's kind of hard to know exactly what's happening with capacity. Do you think that there is significant capacity leaving the market, you know, the owner-operators, small carriers? You know, is that happening faster than what you've seen in prior cycles? Then with respect to brokerage, you know, the quarter was, you know, very, very impressive in terms of the brokerage results.

I'm just wondering if you think that that's kind of a peak level from a, you know, gross margin and operating income perspective, or do you think that's something that you can sustain in 3Q, 4Q, you know, just given that spot rates could fall further? I guess, kind of two things within that. Thank you.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Thomas, we do think there is certainly some tremendous stress in the small and micro carrier market, particularly those who got in at a high cost point to chase the spot market, and obviously that's gone through more than just a bit of a change, but a significant change. Yes, we do believe there are substantive stresses. We can see it in the volume of calls that come into our brokerage business, which we are trying to use more of a digital channel to deal with that. You know, we study closely the motor carrier authority revocations, who is not renewing.

While that's a bit of a lag, it's a leading indicator, and that is starting to see, even though I think it's a couple months behind, you can see stark increases there in motor carrier authorities not being renewed. I would expect as that progresses and that data is refreshed, that it'll even be more pronounced. As we've gone through this pandemic stage of the market, the micro carrier has been the predominant growth vehicle for the industry, and I think that will be the first element of the industry that drops back off, based upon inflationary pressures.

Tom Wadewitz
Managing Director and US Transportation, UBS

As it relates to.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

You know, certainly, the business model that we have in brokerage, the second quarter was highly ideal. And so what we would say as we come in here into July, that the pricing with shippers is stabilized, carrier costs are more stabilized. It was a highly advantageous period in the second quarter. We've always felt that our biggest earnings contribution over time with our logistics and brokerage business was market share, grow the top line, grow volume. Not be as focused on the margin performance, which is what our 4%-6% range was based on. We still philosophically believe that's the case. Although with our Power Only component, as we mentioned earlier in a prior question, we would anticipate reviewing and addressing our long-term expectations of margin within that.

Tom Wadewitz
Managing Director and US Transportation, UBS

If I go back to the attrition, do you subscribe to the idea that we'll have faster attrition and capacity this cycle than maybe we've seen in like you know 2018 2019 or prior cycles?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I do, just because of the cost basis that so many of these carriers came into the market at. Now, we would also say, looking at our leasing business and looking at our brokerage, we haven't seen. We wouldn't say that our experience at this juncture is massive exiting yet. The macro data that we can look from the government, FMCSA, appears to be maybe stronger than maybe what we're feeling presently. I think we're just on the front end of that, Tom.

Tom Wadewitz
Managing Director and US Transportation, UBS

Great. Okay. Thanks, Mark.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Appreciate it.

Operator

Next question, Christian Wetherbee with Citi.

Eily Winski
Equity Research Associate, Citi

T hanks. Morning, guys. This is Eily Winski on for Chris. Maybe you can help give us a better understanding of what the potential for cost takeout looks like maybe in the second half and more into 2023 if there is more of a downturn in the truckload cycle. Specifically, you also mentioned that we are seeing a return to seasonality, but how much closer are we really getting to that in the back half of the year? Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I don't know if I caught all of the question. It was more cost takeout opportunities? I'm sorry, Eli, is that what you said?

Eily Winski
Equity Research Associate, Citi

If the truckload cycle starts to take more of a dip downwards, what's the opportunity for you guys to take more costs out of the network?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Well, maybe I'll point to where our investments are from a technology standpoint to do that is, and certainly digitizing and automating our business, particularly around the transaction level has been a significant focus, and we're seeing it start to bear fruit, particularly in our logistics business, but we're bringing those same digital tools to get to the long tail shipper and carrier in our other segments, whether it be bulk, trucking, intermodal, so that we can get after the long tail more efficiently and more effectively from a cost of acquisition standpoint of volume. That will continue to be a significant focus of the organization.

You know, obviously, if the market cools, which we don't put it in a place that we're anti-inflationary at this point, we would expect to start to see some relief in the driver recruiting phase, the maintenance and parts and costs and all the other areas that, in my 34 years, I've never seen the level of inflation that we've experienced in the last 24 months. So our operating cost position in that type of environment would likely improve significantly.

Stephen Bruffett
EVP and CFO, Schneider National

I also would add to that I think that if there were to be some sort of air pocket that would go through that could create, ironically, some opportunities for improved efficiency, especially in our truck network, as our customers maybe have a chance to catch their breath and become more fluid at their locations, 'cause that's been one of our biggest pinch points within our network on the truck side. I think those efficiency opportunities may be a couple of quarters away in our intermodal network, given that there are more variables that go into that equation. That efficiency play could be part of the answer as well.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Asset productivity, no doubt.

Eily Winski
Equity Research Associate, Citi

That makes sense. Just a quick follow-up on intermodal. I know you guys have more assets coming online, and you probably can't give quarter to quarter, but anyway, we should be thinking about additional containers coming online here in the back half?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I would think, we're focused primarily on growth of assets, and intermodal will be on the chassis front, not so much on the container front. We're just a couple of quarters ahead of the chassis than we are of the containers.

Eily Winski
Equity Research Associate, Citi

Got it. Thanks, Mark.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Excuse me, a couple quarters behind.

Operator

Next question, Brian Ossenbeck with J.P. Morgan.

Brian Ossenbeck
Senior Equity Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question, guys.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Ossenbeck
Senior Equity Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mark, maybe just to come back to the views on the capacity in the market, maybe one short term, one more longer term. AB5 is obviously out there. I don't know if it's gonna get enforced or not, but you have a different model. Wondering what that might impact some of your peers and how that would affect them, and if there's any other states you're watching as potentially following. Then also this morning, we saw the big settlement out in Texas. I don't know if that was well telegraphed or expected, but, you know, what are some of the implications from that as you look forward? Does that really change, you know, the pace of insurance cost premiums that you are experiencing right now across the industry?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Great. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. The AB5 condition is a very in our view a very big deal. We found it highly disruptive when we made those changes a few years ago, anticipating this very outcome. I think there's 70,000 or so owner-operators presently in the state of California. As you mentioned, there are a few following states that we've also had to make adjustments in. Really what we found through that process, Brian, is that what surprised me is the number of folks who were willing to move out of the state of California for us to do that. That's one component. You kind of change the geographic mix of your fleet.

We had a number of people through that process be the last straw to get out of the industry. In our view, if our experience is reflective, we'll start to see an attrition of capacity in those markets that go to that type of kind of rulemaking, if you will. It will be disruptive, and if people haven't prepared for it, that's all in front of them. As you mentioned, I think there are a lot of people that were in the wait and see mode. Us and maybe a few other larger carriers had already made those adjustments, so that won't have any material impact for us.

If anything, it'll be a positive impact because we'll be able and we've already made those adjustments and are prepared to serve those who may fall off as a result. It's a big deal. As you mentioned, it's not just California, it's several potentially other states as well. As we've always said, if folks wanted to be an employee, there's lots of places for them to achieve that. We really are messing with very successful and purposeful folks who wanted to own their own business.

Brian Ossenbeck
Senior Equity Analyst, J.P. Morgan

On the insurance side, you know, with the settlement out this morning with Werner, Texas, is that kind of what you expected?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I'll jump into that, I suppose here. It's kind of difficult to know how that will ripple through. It's certainly not the first shock claim that has occurred in the space or, you know, across the country in various industries. We'll have to see how it plays out. It's predominantly a large fleet phenomenon that we're talking about here with excess towers. I think over the course of time, companies are making adjustments to the size and structure within those towers and reevaluating their self-retained risk and so on, and how that all translates into ultimate insurance costs, we'll have to see. It's not gonna help.

Brian Ossenbeck
Senior Equity Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. If I could ask one quick clarification just on the box turns because that's a big focal point. It sounds like perhaps there's more containers that are in the system but not effective. Are those actually getting counted, you know, in the numbers that we see, or are those not, you know, fully utilized because they're missing the chassis? You know, it sounds like there's opportunities to improve, but I just didn't know if you could quantify or perhaps put some context around, you know, just what that would be if you were, you know, kind of fully matched at this point in time. Thanks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

T hose are fully in our numbers, and we would consider this the trough of what we would expect based upon.

fluidity and getting them all in. When we bring all those, obviously they're not in for the full quarter, and so you have some inefficiency till you get them placed. We do still count all those in our numbers.

Brian Ossenbeck
Senior Equity Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. Thanks for the time. I appreciate it.

Operator

Next question, Elliot Alper with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Elliot Alper
Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Great. Thank you. So last quarter you talked about contract renewals being highly supportive of the inflationary environment. The outlook this quarter discusses some trade moderation. I guess anything you could share on how the market has evolved over the past three months? Maybe within that, you have a pretty diverse end market footprint. Can you speak to some of the pockets of weakness and any strengths within that portfolio?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

As it relates to pricing is still even though we've been through a price escalation process, both within the allocation events in prior periods and also out of periods, as we've gone through the second quarter, pricing is still on a contractual basis going up to cover any additional inflation that's in the business, and so very supportive from a customer standpoint. Again, we're committed to being a great partner for them on what they need to accomplish through that transaction as well. Very supportive, condition of the market continues.

Our focus has been on reshaping our portfolio to a degree where we can build resiliency in not only the customer contracting phase, which is what you see in the dedicated growth, but also being very mindful of the segments that we want to make sure that we're leaning into aggressively commercially, whether that be value retail, do it yourself retail, food and beverage, things that are more durable depending upon where you might be in an economic cycle. We think obviously being paid fairly for the value that you provide is critical, but also aligning yourself with the parts of the economy and the shipper community that's most durable through cycles has been a focus and continues to be a focus of the commercial efforts of the company.

Elliot Alper
Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Question, Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Kenneth Hoexter
Managing Director, Bank of America

G reat. Good morning. Just wanna, I guess, continue on that thought process. Just wanna blend your commentary on the market with what you saw truck, right? Dedicated is 60%, but I guess I would have expected the truck market, given where rates are or rates could have been, to have maybe bigger margin upside. You know, it looked like you decelerated 6% at revenue per truck per week. Are you seeing the spot rates decline faster than you thought? Maybe is it more about the cost side of the equation you mentioned before on driver pay and how the market is changing? Maybe talk a little bit about that.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I'm not sure I'm tracking with the question on the deceleration. Wanna clarify that for me, Ken?

Kenneth Hoexter
Managing Director, Bank of America

I just wanna understand, right, 'cause you talked about the commentary, the backdrop of a decelerating economy. I guess even still, I would have expected, you know, from what we saw with other carriers, maybe still a bigger benefit on margin from the way rates were in the quarter. Was it because of a bigger, faster decline in spot rates, you know, that we hear a lot about? Was it because costs were up faster? Just wanna understand why the margins on truck, you know, could have been stronger relative to what we've seen in others.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

I think we were probably an outlier as it relates to the lack of gains as we've held onto our equipment for growth opportunities and Power Only and our dedicated portfolio. We've sold very few units particularly in the second quarter, which we'd expect to step up here, as we mentioned in our comments in the third and fourth. I think that is probably the predominant difference, particularly year-over-year as it relates to what would have been a tailwind a year ago, and we just didn't get the experience of that this quarter. That was purposeful based upon our ability to put growth in. But certainly the spot market has moderated. We don't play in our asset businesses all that much in the spot market.

We are toggling between upper single digits to low double digits in that space, so it has a less influence on us there. Obviously, that plays more specifically for us in our logistics business. I think, you know, all that considered and what we're doing there, I think the margins were pretty solid.

Kenneth Hoexter
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay. Just a follow-up. You mentioned on the intermodal fleet, right, grew the fleet 28%, loads up 5%. You mentioned about the chassis and the like, kind of delaying the progress. Is there a difference so far in what you're seeing early on in Union Pacific in terms of the asset turn versus your prior western partner?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

We're really pleased with the Union Pacific, particularly on the fluidity inside their ramps. We would say we have not seen any drop off. We got some technology connections that we're still working on to make that even more efficient for our driver community. You know, not knowing, not doing as much with the UP up to this point, we're actually very pleased with the early returns there.

Kenneth Hoexter
Managing Director, Bank of America

Great. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Steve. Have a great one.

Operator

Next question, Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

T hanks. Good morning, guys.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Good morning, Scott.

Scott Group
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

Steve, just some clarity on the guidance. It implies sort of earnings flat, maybe down slightly from 2Q the rest of the year. Any directional color on the segments in terms of, you know, what you think gets better from here, what potentially worse from here? Then, you know, just separately, J.B. Hunt on their call a couple weeks ago, you know, said as they look ahead to 2023 bid season, they think intermodal price maybe will hold up something better than truckload price. I'm wondering if you agree with that or not.

Stephen Bruffett
EVP and CFO, Schneider National

Sure. You know, the second half, I think we don't wanna just beat gains to death. You know, compared to the prior year, we do anticipate having lesser gains in the second half of this year than we had in the second half of last year. Albeit the second half of this year has stepped up from the first half of this year. Gains not being as prominent, a factor in our earnings number this year is part of that flattish dynamic that you referenced there.

You know, I think the biggest question mark in our range, if you will, if we're toward the upper or the lower end, ultimately really gets down to the fourth quarter and what types of project and premium opportunities present themselves, compared to the prior year, which those opportunities were ample. I think that is the one thing that we'll have to see how it plays out. We talked a bit about the logistics margins of 9% in the second quarter, and could there be some modest moderation within those margins in the second half of the year? That's possible. I think those combination of things are the ones that come to mind in response to your question.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Scott, maybe just commentary as opposed to maybe 2023 comments, but certainly as we got through the second quarter, renewals, our intermodal pricing improvement really led the way across the enterprise. Consistent. Whether that holds all the way through 2023, we think there's room for that, but we're not making comment there just yet.

Scott Group
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thank you, guys.

Operator

Next question, Felix Boeschen with Raymond James.

Felix Boeschen
Research Analyst, Raymond James

G ood morning, everybody.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Good morning.

Felix Boeschen
Research Analyst, Raymond James

I just have one and it's on Power Only, but it's been obviously a real source of strength in logistics. You mentioned the high contractual nature of that book, but then, I think I heard you say that trailer turns are slower on the shipper side. Like, I guess my question is, how are you thinking about overall trailer utilization at Schneider today? How big of a trailer fleet size do you need to kinda sustain current Power Only growth rates?

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Thanks for the question. You know, certainly we anticipate over time being more of a trailing equipment-centric organization as a result of using our technology and our network management capabilities around assets, in this case, trailers to aggregate freight on behalf of our customers, whether it be our assets, whether it be owner-operators, or whether it be third parties. To do that will be more trailer-centric, which is one of the reasons, and the success we've had there is why we haven't sold, and we've held on to our trailing equipment as a result of that. Probably a little more advanced than we would have anticipated at this juncture.

As you think about what we'll be bringing forth in our capital allocation decisions in the forthcoming years, it'll be more trailer-centric than would be typical because of this phenomenon. My comment around the delays is just we're seeing more dwell time at constantly on load locations, which once that obviously returns to more historical standards, then that frees up capacity for us to grow the business without adding as many trailers.

Jonathan Chappell
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Helpful. I appreciate it.

Operator

I will now turn the floor over to Mark for closing remarks.

Mark Rourke
President and CEO, Schneider National

Thank you, everyone. I want to thank everyone for participating today. Just a few final thoughts. We're continuing to execute on our strategy of growing and scaling this highly diversified multimodal transportation logistics platform. We want to offer great value to a wide array of shippers' freight needs. Increasingly, we see ourselves aggregating freight and capacity around the flexibility and control of what we've been talking about here this morning, our container and trailer assets for both Schneider and third parties. As a result, we see our revenue and earnings growth increasingly less asset and people-intensive. While the market chaos of the last two years is moderating, our portfolio is well-positioned, as evidenced through the most recently completed allocation season, as well as the more defensive nature of our truckload mix towards dedicated.

Despite the current challenges in intermodal, we do expect to move beyond these inefficiencies and remain very bullish long term on the growth prospects of intermodal and the value it provides to our shipper community, both economically and environmentally. As I mentioned earlier, I am highly pleased and encouraged by the customer recognition of our competitive differentiation with our new Western Rail partner that goes into full effect next year, in combination with our already high-performing CSX offering. Our intermodal team has been tireless in engaging with our customers on the merit of the change and also planning the conversion with the Union Pacific, and we would expect to be flawless during that transition. Finally, the challenges of the last couple of years have greatly advanced the capability and value the market has derived from our logistics offering.

We're not taking our foot off the pedal of our technology investments to connect our various trade partners and provide resources to grow not only our brokerage capability, but this very valuable and value-creating Power-Only offering that we think adds value irrespective of market cycles. That is what you can expect from us. Again, thank you for participating today.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

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