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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 26, 2021

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to S&P Global's third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. All participants are in a listen-only mode. We will open the conference to question and answers after the presentation, and instructions will follow at that time. To access the webcast and slides, go to investor.spglobal.com. If you need any technical assistance, please press star zero, and I will assist you momentarily. I would now like to introduce Mr. Chip Merritt, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

Chip Merritt
SVP of Investor Relations, S&P Global

Thank you for joining today's S&P Global third quarter 2021 earnings call. Presenting on today's call are Doug Peterson, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We issued a news release with our results earlier today. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com. Before we begin, I need to provide certain cautionary remarks about forward-looking statements. Except for historical information, the matters discussed in today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates, and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

In this regard, we direct listeners to the cautionary statements contained in our Form 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, as announced late last year, S&P Global and IHS Markit entered into a definitive merger agreement. In March, shareholders of both companies overwhelmingly voted in favor of the merger. The merger is pending regulatory approval, and we currently expect to close in the first quarter of 2022. This call will touch on the merger, but does not constitute an offer to sell or buy, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any such jurisdiction.

No offering of securities shall be made except by means of prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933. In connection with the proposed transaction, S&P Global and IHS Markit have filed a registration statement on Form S-4 with the SEC, which includes a joint proxy statement and a prospectus. S&P Global and IHS Markit have filed other documents regarding the proposed transaction with the SEC. Investors and security holders of S&P Global or IHS Markit stock are urged to carefully read the entire registration statement and joint proxy statement prospectus, which is available on our website and sec.gov. In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we'll provide an adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the corporation's operating performance between periods and to view the corporation's business from the same perspective as management.

The earnings release and the slides contain exhibits that reconcile the difference between the non-GAAP measures and the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. This call, especially discussion of our outlook, contains statements about expected future events that are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our filings with the SEC and on our website. I would also like to call your attention to a European regulation. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should give me a call to better understand the impact of this legislation on the investor and potentially the company. We're aware that we do have some media representatives with us on the call.

However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to Ola Fadahunsi at two one two-four three eight-two nine six. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you, Chip. Welcome to today's third quarter earnings call. I'd like to start with some of the highlights of the quarter. We reported exceptional financial results, with revenue increasing 13% and all four businesses delivering strong revenue and adjusted operating profit growth. Indices delivered the strongest revenue growth for the second straight quarter due to large gains in ETF AUM. Adjusted expenses increased 7%, largely due to investment spending, commissions, and royalties. After raising guidance on both the first quarter and second quarter earnings calls, we are raising 2021 guidance again based on these strong results and our expectations for the remainder of the year. Ewout will provide details in a moment. I would also like to share some additional highlights from the third quarter. The most important initiative of the year continues to be our upcoming merger with IHS Markit.

This is an incredibly transformative opportunity for our company and our customers. The regulatory path to closing the merger is now becoming clearer. We launched S&P Capital IQ Pro and Platts Dimensions Pro. Sustainable1, our ESG business, is gaining momentum as we build internal capabilities and product offerings expand. I'll come back to all of these highlights in more detail, but let's start with the merger. When we announced the merger in November 2020, we noted that we needed regulatory approval in five jurisdictions, Canada, the European Union, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We've made substantial progress with all these regulators, and there are a number of remedies we must undertake in order to complete the merger. IHS Markit must divest the OPIS, the Base Chemicals, and the PetroChem Wire businesses. The sale of these assets to News Corp has already been announced.

In addition, IHS Markit must divest its Base Chemicals business. S&P Global must divest CUSIP Global Services and Leveraged Commentary & Data together with a related family of leveraged loan indices. S&P Global and IHS Markit will begin the process of selling these additional businesses shortly. In order to provide time to undertake these sales processes, we now expect to close the merger in the first quarter of 2022. Collectively, the revenue from all of the businesses being divested is approximately $425 million, and the margins for each of these businesses are higher than the margins for each of the divisions they are in. In a moment, Ewout will provide an update on our merger synergy expectations, and you will see that despite these divestitures, we are raising both our cost and revenue synergy targets.

To recap the financial results for the third quarter, revenue increased 13% to $2.1 billion. Our adjusted operating profit increased 18%, and our adjusted operating profit margin increased 250 basis points to 55.4%. As you know, we measure and track adjusted operating profit margin on a trailing four-quarter basis, which increased 130 basis points to 55.1%. As a result, our adjusted diluted EPS increased 24%. Each quarter, we highlight a few key business drivers and important projects underway. This quarter, let's start with ratings bond issuance trends. During the third quarter, global bond issuance increased 3%.

In the U.S., bond issuance in aggregate increased 6% as investment grade decreased 12%, high yield decreased 16%, public finance decreased 24%, while structured finance increased 105% due to large increases in every category, particularly CLOs, which increased 340%. European bond issuance increased 4% as investment grade decreased 7%, high yield decreased 4%, and structured finance increased 70% with gains in every asset class except RMBS. Of particular note, CMBS increased 375%. In Asia, bond issuance decreased 2% overall. The data on this slide only depicts bond issuance. When we include new bank loan volumes, overall global issuance increased 9%. The next two slides look at the combined high yield issuance and leveraged loan volume for the U.S. and Europe.

Data is not readily available for the rest of the world. This slide shows that the combination of global leveraged loan and high yield issuance in the third quarter continued to be very strong, surpassing every quarter in 2018, 2019, and 2020. This slide depicts the combination of high yield issuance and leveraged loan volume by the use of proceeds of the funds raised. This quarter, both general corporate purpose and refinancing related issuance was lower than the third quarter of 2020. The surge in activity is entirely due to M&A, LBOs, buybacks, and dividends. These are opportunistic categories that aren't pull forward. The surge in issuance is not pulling forward issuance from future years, and it is additive to future financing needs. Since bank loan ratings are an important element of ratings revenue, we like to disclose our bank loan ratings revenue each quarter.

The unprecedented strength of bank loan ratings revenue continued in the third quarter and year-to-date revenue has already surpassed any of the previous 10 full years. The leveraged loan market and the CLO market are dependent on one another as many of the leveraged loans end up in CLOs. As you can see here, CLO issuance continued to accelerate in the third quarter. During the third quarter, we rebranded our market intelligence platform as S&P Capital IQ Pro. This recognizes the value of the Capital IQ brand as we continue to upgrade the platform with additional content and functionality. We currently have approximately 290,000 active desktop users, of which 90,000 are utilizing S&P Capital IQ Pro. The inaugural release of S&P Capital IQ Pro includes a number of capabilities not found in the market intelligence platform.

A new Kensho-enabled document viewer incorporates AI-based search to speed up users' discovery of text-based insights across filings and transcripts. It's based on technology that Kensho originally developed for U.S. security and military agencies and is now re-engineered for S&P Capital IQ Pro. For example, it gives investors the ability to quickly screen comments made over years of earnings calls within minutes. The new platform features Preqin's coverage of private markets, including data around fundraising trends, dry powder, fund performance, and LP investor allocations. Also included is the ability for users to screen on non-traditional industry criteria such as crypto, therapeutics, and clean tech. S&P Capital IQ Pro also includes RatingsDirect coverage of corporates and financial institutions.

Our users can now incorporate the full suite of S&P Capital IQ Pro tools and functionality and interact with S&P Global ratings content in ways not previously possible. Platts has been on a long journey to consolidate its product platforms as well. With the acquisitions of Bentek, Eclipse, cFlow, Petromedia, and others, there's been a tremendous effort to consolidate all of these capabilities into a single platform. This quarter, Platts introduced Platts Dimensions Pro, which provides users with a seamless one-stop shop experience across Platts benchmark price assessments, news, and analytics, spanning 13 commodities, including energy transition. Like S&P Capital IQ Pro, this content is available on a web-based portal that is mobile-friendly via machine-to-machine delivery and as an Excel add-in. Periodically, we like to provide updates on new product launches.

The first two charts on this slide depict the acceptance by market participants of our JKM marker for liquefied natural gas and our low sulfur marine fuel assessment. Both have exhibited very strong growth recently. The chart on the right shows the cumulative number of new assessments we have launched in the energy transition space in the last four years. These include a new suite of Australian hydrogen prices, covering what is expected to be one of the key producers of this future fuel. The Methane Performance Certificate, which reflects production of natural gas in the U.S. with zero methane emissions and upstream values for the measured carbon emissions associated with crude oil production and transportation, covering an initial suite of 14 crudes from around the world and aiming to provide the backbone for low carbon crude trading.

Buyers can start to make active choices based on the relative carbon impact of different crude sources with this crude carbon intensity product. Turning to our investments in ESG, our Sustainable1 milestones and product launches continue to build. Third quarter Sustainable1 revenue increased 58% to $24 million versus the prior period. With the launch of second-party opinions, Ratings now has five products. Overall, Ratings completed 10 ESG evaluations, 13 green evaluations, 13 SAM benchmark engagements, and 11 social and sustainability framework alignment opinions in the quarter. In market intelligence, we're close to wrapping up the annual CSA survey, and so far in 2021, corporate participation increased 34% to over 1,800 companies. On the back of these surveys, we relaunched our S&P Global ESG Scores on 8,000 companies during the quarter.

We're targeting to have scores on more than 11,000 companies by the end of this year's assessment cycle in the first quarter of 2022. In indices, we had $26.5 billion of ESG ETF AUM at the end of the third quarter. This is an increase of 178% since the end of the third quarter of last year. Our indices business also added to its ESG indices offerings with the launch of the S&P NZX 50 Tilted Index with the New Zealand Exchange. Platts added products to both its suite of carbon assessments and its recycled plastic offerings. Finally, S&P Global is a founding member of Novata, a new technology platform designed to provide private equity firms and the private markets with ESG measurement, data collection, and benchmarking capabilities to help improve the management and tracking of ESG performance.

By providing rich, detailed data on a wide array of ESG topics, The Corporate Sustainability Assessment is an integral part of our ESG scores. Since we purchased the capability from RobecoSAM in late 2019, we've expanded the number of corporate participants by about 500 companies, and the group has almost doubled corporate participation in the last four years. Today's participating companies represent 45% of global market capitalization. In addition, you can see this is a global endeavor. We view the CSA input as a key differentiator to our Sustainable1 efforts. Let me now turn to our outlook for global issuance and GDP. The 2021 issuance forecast continued to creep higher and is now relatively flat versus 2020 issuance. The latest forecast was issued earlier this week and also covers 2022 issuance for the first time.

2022 issuance is forecast to decline 2%. This is based on a 7% decrease in non-financial corporates, a 1% increase in financial services, a 3% increase in structured finance, and a 2% increase in U.S. public finance. Looking forward, inflation concerns, prospects for rising rates, high cash balances, and possible tax reform all translate to headwinds for issuance in 2022. We expect that they will lead to a second year of contraction in issuance totals. Please note that this is a bond issuance forecast. This is not a revenue forecast. For example, it doesn't address non-transaction revenue and doesn't include leveraged loan activity. The macro outlook is little changed from three months ago. Our economists expect growth to moderate in 2022, with growth in Europe and many emerging markets improving, while growth rates drop in the U.S. and China.

Commodity prices have rebounded due to strong retail sales, weather events, and supply chain imbalances. However, inflation pressures appear to be peaking, with some emerging market central banks raising rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve moving up its tapering timeline, and the ECB firmly on hold for now. Finally, Platts Analytics believes that current fundamentals should remain supportive of oil prices in the mid-seventies. This is positive for the health of the oil industry. I will now turn the call over to Ewout Steenbergen, who is going to provide additional insights into our financial performance and outlook. Ewout?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Thank you, Doug. While we have excellent third quarter results and an exciting merger pending, I would like to start my discussion today with our latest thinking around our merger synergy targets. There has been an extensive effort throughout the company to identify and validate potential merger synergies. While the initial synergy targets that we introduced at the time of the merger announcement were developed by a very limited number of senior managers, the latest figures take into consideration in-depth planning and analysis by countless employees across both companies. We have increased our total synergy target and now estimate that there will be $530 million-$580 million of cost synergies and $330 million-$360 million of revenue synergies.

As you can see in the slide, this takes into consideration new synergies identified, as well as those who will no longer be able to achieve due to required divestitures. Correspondingly, the proceeds of the divestitures will contribute to additional capacity for share repurchases. I also want to point out that on a run rate basis, we have already achieved approximately $25 million of these synergies. This is primarily from not backfilling open positions created through normal attrition. Today, we're only providing an update on the merger synergy targets. We'll give you a full update on the financial targets of the merged company after we complete the transaction. Turning to our third quarter financial results, Doug covered the highlights of strong revenue and adjusted earnings per share growth. I will take a moment to cover a few other items.

Adjusted corporate unallocated expenses increased 18% due to company-owned life insurance proceeds in the prior period. Our net interest expense improved 13% due to the refinancing of a substantial portion of our debt last year. The decrease in the adjusted effective tax rate was primarily due to a refinement of tax accruals on foreign operations related to both a prior and current period. During the quarter, changes in foreign exchange rates had a positive impact on adjusted EPS of $0.02. The only meaningful impact was in ratings, where adjusted operating profit was positively impacted by $5 million. In the second quarter, we introduced three new categories to provide insights into the type of expenses that are going to be incurred related to the pending merger. The first category is transaction cost. These are costs related to completing the merger.

They include legal fees, investment banking fees, and filing fees. The second category is integration cost. These are costs to operationalize the integration. They include consulting, infrastructure, and retention costs. The third category is cost to achieve. These are costs needed to enable expense and revenue synergies. They include lease terminations, severance, contract exit fees, and investments related to product development, marketing, and distribution enhancements. During the third quarter, the non-GAAP adjustments collectively totaled to a net pre-tax loss of $73 million. They included $9 million from merger transaction costs, primarily legal fees. $45 million from merger integration costs, primarily consulting fees. A $3 million gain on the sale of an office building in India, and $21 million in deal-related amortization. This quarter, all four divisions delivered solid gains in revenue and adjusted operating profit, with Indices delivering the largest gains.

On a trailing four-quarter basis, adjusted operating profit margin increased in all four divisions, with Indices leading with a gain of 170 basis points. I'll provide color on the individual business results in a moment. Now turning to the balance sheet. Our balance sheet continues to be very strong with low leverage and ample liquidity. We have cash and cash equivalents of $5.9 billion and debt of $4.1 billion. Our adjusted gross debt to adjusted EBITDA improved since the end of last year to 1.8x . Free cash flow, excluding certain items, was $2.6 billion in the first nine months of 2021, an increase of more than $300 million or 15% over the prior year period. Due to the pending merger with IHS Markit, share repurchases have been suspended.

Now let's turn to the division results and begin with S&P Dow Jones Indices, which delivered extraordinary revenue growth of 28%, primarily due to gains in AUM linked to our indices. Please note that the ETF revenue included a $5 million breakup fee due to the termination of our indices as the basis for several ETFs. In the third quarter, adjusted expenses increased 4%, largely due to royalties and compensation, partially offset by reduced legal costs. The adjusted segment operating profit increased a whopping 40%, and the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 660 basis points to 71.8%. On a trailing four-quarter basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 170 basis points to 70.7%. Every category increased revenue this quarter.

Asset-linked fees increased 36%, primarily from gains in ETFs, augmented by gains in mutual funds and insurance, and over-the-counter derivative activity that exceeded 20%. Exchange-traded derivative revenue increased 15% on increased trading volumes at the CBOE Data and custom subscriptions increased 8%. For our indices division over the past year, ETF net inflows were $223 billion and market appreciation totaled $524 billion. This resulted in quarter-ending ETF AUM of $2.5 trillion, which is 43% higher compared to one year ago. Our ETF revenue is based on average AUM, which increased 48% year-over-year. Sequentially, versus the end of the second quarter, ETF net inflows associated with our indices totaled $55 billion and market depreciation totaled $16 billion. Exchange-traded derivative activity was mixed during the quarter.

Activity at the CBOE increased with S&P 500 index options activity increasing 39% and VIX futures and options activity increasing 31%. Activity at the CME equity complex decreased 6% due primarily to a 22% decrease in Micro E-mini volumes. Ratings delivered very strong revenue growth, increasing 14% with strength in bank loan ratings, structured finance and non-transaction activity. Adjusted expenses increased 9% primarily due to increased salaries, headcount at CRISIL, growth initiatives, and incentives. This resulted in a 17% increase in adjusted segment operating profit and a 160 basis points increase in adjusted segment operating profit margin. On the trailing four-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 40 basis points to 63.8%. In China, we see continued momentum and interest in our ratings.

We completed 15 ratings in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 46 compared to 22 in all last year. Non-transaction revenue increased 15%, primarily due to growth in fees associated with surveillance, increased new entity ratings activity, CRISIL and rating evaluation services revenue. Transaction revenue increased as a 100% increase in bank loan ratings activity and strong structured product issuance more than offset a decline in corporate bond issuance. This slide depicts ratings revenue by its end markets. The largest contributor to the increase in ratings revenue was the 48% increase in structured finance driven by CLOs, CMBS, and ABS. In addition, corporates increased 14%, financial services increased 8%, governments decreased 12%, and the CRISIL and other category increased 14%. Market Intelligence delivered reported revenue growth of 7% and 8% on an organic basis.

More than 1/3 of the revenue growth was from recent product investments, which increased by 40%, led by ESG and the S&P Global Marketplace. Adjusted expenses increased 4%, primarily due to higher investment spending, particularly in ESG, S&P Global Marketplace, SME and China. Additional infrastructure spending supporting our cloud initiatives and S&P Capital IQ Pro and data, which is primarily license fees tied to after-market research revenue. Adjusted segment operating profit increased 13% and the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 190 basis points to 35.7%. On the trailing four-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 90 basis points to 33.8%. Looking across Market Intelligence, there was solid growth in each category. Desktop revenue grew 6%. Data management solutions revenue grew 12%. Credit risk solutions revenue grew 7%. Now turning to Platts.

Reported revenue increased 8%. Our core subscriptions increased 7%. It's notable that more than one-third of the growth came from new products, primarily ESG and LNG. Global trading services had a great quarter, increasing 14%, mainly due to strong LNG and petroleum volumes. GTS activity often picks up when commodity prices become more volatile. Adjusted expenses increased 11%, primarily due to growth initiatives, incentives, and commissions. In addition, expenses in the third quarter last year were aided by management actions. Adjusted segment operating profit increased 5% and adjusted segment operating profit margin decreased 110 basis points to 54.6%. The trailing four-quarter adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 70 basis points to 55.6%. While there was revenue growth in every category, petrochemicals, natural gas, power and renewables, and shipping all delivered double-digit growth.

Because the company now anticipates closing the merger with IHS Markit in the first quarter of 2022, we're able to provide 2021 GAAP guidance for the first time. This slide depicts our new GAAP guidance. This slide depicts our adjusted guidance. The third column shows our new 2021 adjusted guidance with all the line items that changed highlighted. We're making these changes primarily due to greater revenue growth in ratings and indices. Therefore, our revenue guidance is increased from high single-digit increase to a low double-digit increase. Corporate unallocated is increased by $5 million to a new range of $140 million-$150 million due to increased incentives and a charitable contribution. Operating profit margin is increased by a range of 40-60 basis points to a new range of 55%-55.5%.

This results in a $0.50- to $0.55 increase to adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a new range of $13.50-$13.65. Finally, free cash flow generation has been increased by $100 million to a range of $3.6 billion-$3.7 billion. In conclusion, 2021 is turning out to be an exceptionally strong year for the company. All our businesses are delivering solid growth. We continue to expand our ESG product offerings, and we're making great progress on the upcoming merger with IHS Markit. With that, let me turn the call back over to Chip for your questions.

Chip Merritt
SVP of Investor Relations, S&P Global

Thank you. Just a couple of instructions for our phone participants. To indicate that you wish to ask a question, please press star one and record your name. To cancel or withdraw your question, simply press star two. Please limit yourself to two questions in order to allow time for other callers during today's Q&A session. Operator, we will now take our first question.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays, your line is open, Manav.

Manav Patnaik
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. I just had a question on, you know, the Capital IQ Pro platform that you talked about. You know, it seems like, you know, that's been in the works for some time. Perhaps it's out a little bit later than you guys had anticipated. But just talk about how you think that improves your competitive positioning. Are there any, you know, changes in that side of the market from the competitive angle?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you, Manav. This is Doug. Well, first of all, welcome everyone to the call. We had a lot to report today, and I'm pleased that you picked up that we've been able to launch the S&P Capital IQ Pro platform. What it brings is the ability to, first of all, consolidate many different information sources that we've had in the company across the years. It has a much better interface, as you've seen, if you started using it. It also incorporates new Kensho capabilities and improved search. It also has the data for ESG. It's easier to use for our risk services data. Across the board, it provides us with a competitive advantage of comprehensive data, ease of use, as well as new tools that make it easier to download data, to move them into spreadsheets for charting, et cetera.

We think it's an incremental leap forward, and it gives us a much more competitive platform for the market.

Manav Patnaik
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Then, Doug, just on the issuance forecast for next year, I know you gave us the moving pieces by category, but just, you know, high level from a macro standpoint, I mean, you know, down 2% volume doesn't sound that bad compared to, you know, the strong two years that we've had. Just give me some way you think the positives and negatives could be to that number.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Yeah, this is something, as you know, we've seen a really interesting mix of the issuance this year. You saw the very strong issuance in loans, which is driven by M&A. We've seen so far in the quarter, we saw a drop of corporates in the U.S. of 30%, while we saw an increase of structured finance of over 100%. Those are really big swings. We do see that the M&A activity should continue forward. There's a lot of M&A activity in the pipeline, which would bode well for loan issuance. That's not something that's in the bond forecast itself. But in the bond forecast, we see that in corporates it's gonna be down about 7%. There continues to be a strong liquidity for those types of issuers.

The trend is right now there's not a very big pipeline of issuance of corporates that we see. Financial services had half strength the last couple of quarters. As you saw this quarter, financial institutions was up about 5%. In the U.S., it was actually up about 30%. You did see some strength in that. We do think that there's gonna be some continuation up about 1%. 1% for 2022. For structured finance, we do think that there's gonna be some continuation of interest in CLOs, but I'm not sure if that will continue across all asset classes with about a 3% increase. U.S. public finance close to flat, around 2% up.

Then finally, total, when you look across all of those, given the volume of corporates, which we had down 7%, that would bring the total down about 2% in 2022. As we said on the call, this is an initial issuance forecast of bonds. It's not a revenue forecast.

Manav Patnaik
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Understood. Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Manav.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse, y our line is open.

Kevin McVeigh
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Great. Thanks so much. Hey, congratulations on the results. Doug, you talk about ESG just within the context of longer-term opportunities. I mean, you're scaling it. It seems like the revenue was $24 million, up from $22 million. I think in the past, you've talked about a $100 million target and exceeding kind of $300 million by 2024. Are you still comfortable with that? Is there potential, you know, just puts and takes on that as we think about, you know, bringing in IHS to the extent you can talk about that?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Good morning, Kevin. This is Ewout. Let me first take the first part of your question, and then I will hand it over to Doug. Thank you.

First, with respect to the revenue outlook for ESG for the full year, yes, we're still expecting to come in approximately $100 million of revenues for the full year. One of the reasons is that there is some seasonality with respect to SAM revenues. Usually, it's a bit higher in the fourth quarter. We're year-to-date at $67 million of ESG revenues.

Again, then we expect this to go up in the fourth quarter to approximately $100 million for the full year. We are on track with respect to our forecasts, over 40% CAGR that we expect, over the next few years. You see that we have a lot of positive momentum, a lot of new product launches, a lot of new initiatives going on, a lot of investments in ESG initiatives. Let me hand it over here to Doug.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you, Kevin. Just a couple of points strategically for our positioning. We have been able to put together the Sustainable1 group under the leadership of Martina Cheung. This has provided us with the ability to look across the entire organization for ways that we can link data and put together the latest needs for the market. As you saw, we launched the partnership with the Ford Foundation, Hamilton Lane and Omidyar Network for the Novata platform for the private markets and private equity. We're looking across all the different types of opportunities to bring ESG data into the market so you have the most transparency, the most comprehensive, consistent approach to providing those ESG solutions to the market.

This is something that we're looking at across the board in all the different aspects of how markets are starting to use ESG data. You should expect that we're gonna continue to invest in this area. You should hear from us every quarter that we've spent some money or invested in a different division to increase our sales force, our technical capabilities. If you ask the question about where might we still be targeting some longer-term look at acquisitions, ESG would clearly be on that list.

Kevin McVeigh
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Super helpful. Then just real quick, it seems like you're able to walk up the cost synergies and even the upper end of the revenue synergies despite some, you know, additional divestments to get the deal over the goal line. Any thoughts on kinda what the broader categories of what the expense synergies are, and then maybe where some of that revenue comes in as well? Is that just, you know, you're kinda coming together? Just any thoughts as to what drove that upside there?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Kevin, the short answer here is that based on a lot of bottoms-up work by large groups of people with a lot of rigor, substantiating synergy opportunities, we have been able to find higher opportunities than we thought before. Let me expand a bit on that. You recall when we announced the transaction, we said that we had $350 million of revenue synergies and $480 million of cost synergies. That was based on very thorough process during due diligence. However, that was done by a smaller group of senior executives because, of course, a smaller group of people were aware that we're working on that transaction. Since then, we have had work streams in place and four submission rounds with respect to synergies through a very rigorous process.

We have been able to look much deeper into all the synergy categories, from integrating corporate functions to optimizing real estate and technology, going very deep in procurement to clean room activities. Procurement, I already mentioned, eliminating duplicative costs. Many of those areas. Based on all of that very detailed work, we're confident now that we can raise those synergy targets both for cost and revenues.

Kevin McVeigh
Managing Director, Credit Suisse

Thank you so much. Congrats again.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair, y our line is open, sir.

Andrew Nicholas
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Great. Thank you. Maybe I'll start with a follow-up to the last question, which is just on the timing of cost synergies. I believe of the $480 million that you'd outlined, initially $390 million were expected in the first two years. This additional, you know, 100 or so, is that kind of a first two-year opportunity, or is that part of a longer tail?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Good morning, Andrew. What we are looking at is very similar trajectories with respect to expense synergies and revenue synergies that we told you before. three-year cost synergy ramp, which is more front-end loaded, and then five-year ramp for revenue synergies, which is more gradual over that five-year period of time.

Andrew Nicholas
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Understood. Thank you. Then, my next question, appreciate you taking them, was just on the implied guidance for fourth quarter spend. Obviously, after a really good quarter, it still looks like you're expecting more acceleration in spend. I'm just wondering, one, what the major drivers of that increased spend are in the fourth quarter, and then also as a jumping-off point for 2022.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Sure. Well, I have to be careful about 2022 because we're not providing guidance on that at this point in time. Let me give you some more details about the outlook for the remainder of the year. What you see, Andrew, is a bit of direction of different initiatives going in opposite directions. At first, we have the productivity program, where we take benefits so far this year from an expense growth perspective, as well as the pre-realized synergies on the S&P Global side that we mentioned in the prepared remarks. Of course, we're also taking benefit from the operating leverage. What goes in the opposite direction is the strategic investments we're making in the strategic initiatives, for example, in ESG, for example, in the energy transition in Platts. And then also our variable expenses are going up.

I consider those good expenses because they are directly linked to our sales levels and our revenue levels. Think about incentive compensation, commissions, and cost of sales. We expect those underlying trends to continue in the fourth quarter. Specifically, I would like to call out Platts because the Platts expenses might be a little higher in the fourth quarter, similar to what you saw in the third quarter. Because here you see particularly those variable expenses, being a bit higher, as well as the investments in the new initiatives. That is also paying off because as we mentioned, one-third of the revenue growth in Platts is coming from those new products. I hope that's helpful.

Andrew Nicholas
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Yes, it is. Thanks a lot.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies, y our line is open.

Hamzah Mazari
Managing Director, Jefferies

Good morning. My question was just around if you could just update us on, you know, the capital allocation framework going forward. I know the deal timeline is sort of Q1. You also outlined how much free cash you're generating this year. Just update us on, you know, your thoughts on return of cash post-deal closing. Then have the cost to achieve synergies changed at all with the updated cost synergy figures?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Hamzah, good morning. Let me first take the capital return philosophy. You're absolutely right that we're building up significant cash as a company. Our thinking about returning that, because obviously this is temporarily elevated, returning that cash, the thinking about that is the following. First, we have a catch-up to do because for the last 1.5 years, we have not been able to do share buybacks. And the same applies, by the way, for IHS Markit. IHS Markit can also not do share buybacks, so it's also building up its cash position. What we should add is some of the proceeds of the divestitures that will help with the capital return capacity.

Then very quickly after the completion of the transaction, we would like to move to our new capital return target of at least 85% of free cash flow. If you add up all of those pieces, we're speaking about a very meaningful capital return number that we will be able to achieve after the completion of the transaction. I cannot give you a numerical answer on that right now, but what we're planning to do is give you the financial targets of the combined company in the first quarter, again, after we complete the merger. With respect to your second part of the question, the cost to achieve. We are looking still at those three different categories with respect to our merger-related costs. We have transaction costs, integration costs, and costs to achieve.

Costs to achieve, in my view, are of course, the best category of costs because it's an investment to ultimately achieve those synergies. What we are looking at in terms of the overall best estimate with respect to the spend, the integration cost and the cost to achieve combined, we're looking at approximately 1.1x the overall cost and revenue synergy. That's our best estimate in terms of what we expect to spend for integration and cost to achieve. Again, that is an investment in order to achieve ultimately those higher synergy numbers.

Hamzah Mazari
Managing Director, Jefferies

Very helpful. My follow-up question, I'll turn it over, is just around the China ratings business. I know you outlined sort of completing 15 domestic ratings, but do you view that environment as having changed for your business or not really? A lot of the headlines around China are a little more. Seems like it's tougher, but maybe it doesn't impact your business domestically. Just any thoughts there.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Hamzah. Nice to hear from you. As you mentioned, we did complete 15 ratings in the third quarter. It's actually 46 year to date, and that compares to 2022 and all of 2020. We know that growth isn't gonna be a straight line. There's a lot of interest in our ratings. As you see, there's some credit events taking place in China right now, and those are bringing a lot of attention to our ratings and our methodology, how we think about informing the market. We see a big uptick in people attending our webinars, downloading our research. We've also been pleased that we've been able to rate companies across the entire credit sector from AAA to BBB, and then different types of companies, financial, structured products, and our first non-financial corporate.

More to your question about the environment, we continue to see the financial regulators are very interested in reforming and updating their financial markets. We would see that when it comes to the ratings industry, that there's interest in seeing more from us. They're talking about some reforms that would make the ratings industry more transparent and make it change some of the floors for what would be defined as a non-investment grade rating. Very importantly, we also see a whole slew of international financial firms getting licenses to operate 100% owned or more than 51% owned operations in China. Recently, Goldman Sachs received approval to take full ownership of its securities JV. Others include Fidelity, JP Morgan, Citi, BlackRock, et cetera.

We do think that in the financial markets, we see a very different rhetoric and a willingness to open and reform the markets compared to what you see sometimes in other parts of the markets.

Hamzah Mazari
Managing Director, Jefferies

Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Hamzah.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets, y our line is open.

Ashish Sabadra
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks for taking my question. Just on the divestiture and the $420 million of revenues for the divestitures, I believe the ones that are already announced, OPIS, CMM and PetroChem, those were $129 million. I just wanted to confirm if that number is still right. I was wondering if you could provide any incremental details on the other businesses, any further details on revenues for other businesses. Thanks.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Good morning, Ashish. Indeed, that number is still correct. Approximately $125 million revenue for OPIS and its related businesses like coal, metals and mining. As Doug said in his prepared remarks, $425 million for all of the divestitures, including OPIS, combined.

Ashish Sabadra
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. That's helpful. Then, just a question on the CapIQ Pro. Obviously, that's gaining pretty good traction with the rollout there. My question was how does that help you post the integration with IHS Markit? Does it make it easier for you to cross-sell IHS data into the CapIQ customer base with the rollout of the IQ Pro, a pretty solid rollout of the IQ, CapIQ Pro platform. Thanks.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Yeah, Ashish. It definitely does. Having the Capital IQ Pro developed and delivered is important to us. It gives us confidence of our ability to integrate new datasets. It also is something that's on the desktop of already 90,000 users, which is growing rapidly. We believe that that gives us the ability to integrate new datasets. As you know, related to the market intelligence business, we also have the data marketplace, which has the tiles for different datasets which are already curated, have the contracts around them. That's another aspect of the market intelligence business that is going incredibly well, that will help us integrate the data lake and the data products also of IHS Markit.

The progress technologically with how we've moved our operations to the cloud, the upgrade and updates we've been doing to the back end, as well as now the ability to deliver that front end of S&P Capital IQ Pro are all going to help facilitate the integration. Thanks, Ashish.

Ashish Sabadra
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Sorry, go ahead.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you very much.

Ashish Sabadra
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks a lot. Thank you. All right.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets, y our line is open, sir.

Jeff Silber
Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets

Thanks so much. I wanted to switch over to the Indices business. The performance has really been remarkable the past few quarters, and I think you've had three straight quarters of adjusted operating margin above 70%. Is that the new bar going forward? Is that sustainable?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Hello, Jeff. This is Ewout. With respect to the outlook for margins for Indices, I can only give you the outlook for 2021, and that is approximately 70% margin for the full year. We'll get back to you in the first quarter when we do our fourth quarter earnings call with respect to specific guidance for 2022.

Jeff Silber
Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. I thought I'd try, but thank you anyhow. Just moving back to the merger, can you just remind us, you know, where we stand in terms of milestones, in terms of what we're looking for over the next few months?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Let me take that. What we're looking over the next few months is to continue to meet the requirements that we've agreed with the regulators on where we're going to be divesting of some businesses so that we can close the transaction. As you saw this week or last week, we were able to reach some agreements with the EC for the approval of some conditions and what they call remedies, which include the divestiture of OPIS, what's now the divestiture of CUSIP, and then also LCD and Loan Indices. We have about six months from now to close the LCD and the Loan Indices, and those are not conditions to close the transaction. QIP is.

With the CMA in the U.K., we also have the condition of the Opis transaction, and now something else is being added that's called Base Chemicals. We heard from them this morning that in general, they approve of that as a remedy that they would expect meets the needs. We also want to make sure that over the next three or four months that we have time to follow through on a very thorough and robust process to get full value for all of these divestitures. In a sense, right now, getting those divestitures, meeting the requirements of those regulators, the remedies that they saw that created competitive positions that they thought would be too strong, completing those divestitures is gonna be the gating factor.

We also want to do it, as I said, in a way that's professional, robust, and we get full value. You should be watching that. We'll be providing more information as things crop up that we can talk about, but be assured that this is something that's on the top of our list right now, things we have to get done.

Jeff Silber
Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Really appreciate the color. Thanks so much.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

If I may build on Doug's answer, with respect to milestones, we also have, of course, the milestones around the merger planning process. I think we're well underway, a lot of positive initiatives that are going on in both organizations. We are looking at, for example, getting ready for day one and being able to operate as one combined company on day one, system integrations, people planning, synergies and so on. Also a lot of milestones that we are working on the more overall planning process. Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley, y ou may proceed with your question.

Toni Kaplan
Managing Director and Equity Research Lead Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Wanted to ask about the recurring revenue within the ratings business. It's very strong again at 15%, fourth quarter of double-digit growth. Going forward, should we expect sort of a similar growth rate there? And just broadly, has there been any change from issuers when deciding whether to enter a frequent issuer program, especially as debt balances continue to rise? Has that not really changed at this point?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Good morning, Toni. Indeed, a very positive, continued positive revenue growth in the non-transaction category for ratings. We also expect that to continue for the full year. The outlook for non-transaction revenue is now low double-digits growth. What you see is underneath is a couple of developments. First, we are seeing that surveillance fees are going up. That is being helped last year by that very high level of bond issuance activity. This year, of course, by bank loan rating activity, where we also are receiving surveillance fees. Indeed, some part of that you may expect to also continue in the future beyond 2021. What we also see is a lot of activity with respect to initial credit ratings this year, rating evaluation service, which is helped by the M&A environment.

CRISIL also is doing very well and is also showing very healthy growth. All of the underlying categories in non-transaction revenue are doing very well.

Toni Kaplan
Managing Director and Equity Research Lead Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That's really helpful color. Just for my follow-up, given that I know you're less exposed to sort of some of the labor force pressures we're seeing across some of our diversified names. That being said, can you comment on if you're seeing any headwinds on the labor side? Is it harder to find people? Just want to understand, what's going on with your employment.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Absolutely, Toni. We're monitoring this very closely, both indeed from a quality of people that we can attract and retain, as well as overall from a cost perspective, because of course, the largest cost category we have is staff cost as a company. It's about 70% of our overall cost base. We, by the way, see this both as a risk and as an opportunity, because if there are a lot of people on the move in the labor market, it's also a clear opportunity to pick up some really good talent as a company. Also with the hybrid working model that we are introducing, we also think that it is attractive as an employer that we can offer that. It also offers up a possibility to look at talent in a much wider geographical area that we're looking at before.

We're closely monitoring this. At this point in time, our economists believe that the inflation pressure should be transitory. That's more our base case. We're definitely running stress tests to think about if inflation would be more permanent, what that would mean for the company and what management actions we can take.

Toni Kaplan
Managing Director and Equity Research Lead Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That's great. Thank you so much.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Thanks, Toni.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners, y our line is open, sir.

Craig Huber
Equity Research Analyst, Huber Research Partners

Yes. Hi. My first question. Typically, you guys raise prices on average 3%-4% per year. For your legacy business this year, is that a reasonable range? Is there any areas around that are significantly higher or lower than that? I'll have a follow-up. Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Craig, as you know, we typically will price somewhere around 2%-3%. We try to look at what are the trends in the markets on inflation. That would continue to be our expectation going forward. We don't have any further guidance or update on that right now.

Craig Huber
Equity Research Analyst, Huber Research Partners

Okay. My other question, Doug, your outlook for debt issuance this upcoming year is, I guess, down 2%, excludes bank loans, if I heard you right. Can you just comment, if you would, what's your best assessment, how you think bank loan issuance will do next year, given the huge strength you guys have seen this year? Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

I don't have a bank loan issuance forecast from the team, and I would only say that we do see a very strong pipeline for M&A and LBOs. That is always one of the most important elements that figures into that. We'll be providing more guidance on that at our next earnings call.

Craig Huber
Equity Research Analyst, Huber Research Partners

Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Craig.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan. Your line is open, sir.

Andrew Steinerman
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi. I'll be quick. Ewout, could you just help us a little bit more understanding of the fourth quarter? You know, just a comment about the four segments and how they're likely to do on an organic revenue growth basis to puzzle into the full year 2021 guide that you gave on slide 43.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Sure, Andrew. We're looking now at outlook with respect to revenue growth for our divisions. The index business, double-digit revenue growth. Ratings, low double digits. We have Platts at high single digits, and we have MI at mid- to high single digits. With respect to the margin outlook for the full year, we have, as I said before, indices around 70%, ratings mid-60s%, Platts mid-50s%, and then MI mid-30s%. Continued positive momentum, healthy top line growth, and healthy margins for all of our segments.

Andrew Steinerman
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

That's for the full year. Correct, Ewout?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Those are full year, correct?

Andrew Steinerman
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Oh, okay. We'll puzzle into fourth quarter. Thanks for highlighting that. I appreciate that.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question's from George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

George Tong
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, thanks. Good morning. You've now increased your guidance for debt issuance and ratings revenue, three quarters in a row. Well, why shouldn't the factors that drove outperformance persist into 2022?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

I don't have any reason whatsoever to try to give a forecast in 2022 right now that goes beyond what our own team, who are the people in the markets every day, have looked at. Clearly, there's a lot of factors which go into the decision of organizations to issue debt or to undertake an M&A deal, and what sort of instrument that they undertake to finance it with, whether it's a loan, how that gets packaged in the CLO, et cetera. There is a lot of liquidity in the market. We do see a strong M&A pipeline right now. Those are things that we'll factor in when we bring you the full year update and our guidance on our next earnings call.

George Tong
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Got it. You increased your synergy targets associated with the IHS Markit merger. Which businesses do you expect these incremental synergies to come from, predominantly? Or is it relatively evenly spaced across the business?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

George, it will be across the board in many different categories in all of the segments, as well as also in the functional areas. Let me give you a couple examples of that so that you can get more of a feel for it. First, a lot of work has been underway in what we call the procurement clean room. About $2.5 billion of spend of both companies has been analyzed. There are 25,000 active contracts, and that has led to some opportunities, further opportunities that have been identified. Also, there is a clean room for cross-sell, and we have found about 200 synergies with respect to cross-sell through that clean room activity.

What we did not expect before were certain synergy benefits from segments that, we basically, did not have on the list before. We now have synergies also being identified in ratings, in transportation, in CMBS, and in CRISIL. Those are a couple of examples, but I would say in general, really more opportunities in all of the areas across both organizations and of course, then the combined company in the future.

George Tong
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great. Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer, y our line is open, sir.

Owen Lau
Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thank you. I'll be quick. Could you please talk about the rationale behind and how you come down to the conclusion to divest CUSIP and LCD? Are all these divestitures contingent to the completion of the IHS deal? Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Yeah. Thank you, Owen. Well, as you know, these are businesses that the EC and the CMA have looked at with a lot of depth. They go to the market, they go to market participants to ask them to look at the businesses as we bring them together and to give them feedback as to what would be the competitiveness of those businesses. When it comes to the discussion with the EC, they determined that CUSIP and LCD and loan indices would create some sort of an additional competitive advantage. In the discussions with them, and looking at their understanding and belief of the market position, we agreed that that would be a remedy that would meet their needs to ensure that we didn't have a dominant position in the markets.

This is something that they looked at. You can actually read their letter that has been published that they have a very short couple of paragraphs that describe their views of that and how they feel about it. But they've also given us what they call an approval with conditions, which we think was a very positive aspect. Similarly with the CMA, they go to markets, they listen to market participants, and they came back with a discussion about the Base Chemicals business that would also create a competitive issue in the U.K. In discussions and negotiations with them, we also agreed that that would be a condition that we would meet in order to get approval on the transaction. These are what the regulators do.

They look at the market, they speak with market participants, and then we discuss these with them. In these cases, we've agreed that we would make these divestitures in order to close the deal. You asked about conditionality. It's our understanding in the case of the CMA, we would need to have a buyer identified that they would vet of the Base Chemicals business and also the OPIS business, of which we already have a buyer. In the case of the EC, we'd have to have a buyer identified for the OPIS and related businesses, which we already have. Then for CUSIP, we'd have to have a buyer we have identified and vetted before we can close the deal.

For LCD and loan indices, we have six months from now, and we could close the deal without having a buyer for that transaction.

Owen Lau
Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer

That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thanks, Owen.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Jeff Meuler with Baird, y our line is open, sir.

Jeff Meuler
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Yeah, thank you. On the Cap IQ and Platts upgraded platforms, as you upgrade an existing client, is there incremental revenue at the point of upgrade, or is this all about driving usage, and then you capture the better monetization on the back end? Then on the expense side, is there a sizable opportunity to save on cost as you sunset some of the legacy platforms eventually?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

There's a few aspects to this. One is related to something you mentioned, and that is that as we improve our capabilities, make it easier to find data, to search it, to chart it, to download it, et cetera, that makes the products more sticky. It makes more people use the product. It brings more people to the platform, which is a virtuous cycle, which then allows us to have stronger negotiations when it comes to price increases. So there is not necessarily a direct increase that comes from the launch of these platforms, but it does give us that virtuous cycle. In addition, it makes it easier for us to plug in and add new data sets, which do sometimes bring new contracts and new revenue along with those. In addition, you asked about the expense side of this.

As we redeploy resources from turning off and changing older platforms, it allows us to either have an expense save, or in many cases, it allows us to redeploy those programmers and developers into areas where the highest growth opportunities, like what we've talked about earlier, something on ESG, private markets, the areas that we're quite excited about with the merger with IHS Markit, how we're gonna be able to bring energy transition products, further credit and risk products, et cetera. We can get some savings, but also a look at how we're gonna redeploy our development talent to the highest opportunities for the future growth.

Jeff Meuler
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you. Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question is from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel, y our line is open, sir.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Ewout, I apologize if I missed this, but the divested businesses I heard are gonna be $425 million in revenue. What would the EBIT or EBITDA of those businesses be on a collective basis?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Shlomo, good morning. No, we haven't mentioned that specifically. What Doug said during his prepared remarks is that the margins on these businesses are higher than the margins of the respective segments where these businesses are reported today. These are businesses with a bit higher margins than you see on average. However, if you think about it, the revenues of those four businesses is approximately 4% of the revenues of the pro forma combined company. Therefore, the overall impact on the margins of the company is relatively modest. Also take into consideration that the overall synergy numbers we have moved up with this announcement.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel

If the synergies are moving up, so does that going to offset. In other words, how should I think of the offset? Should I think of it in terms of the share repurchases is gonna be the primary offset or some of the increased synergies? How are you guys thinking of that in terms of the lost EBIT?

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Yeah, the way to think about it is maybe three elements. You could say the starting point for the combined company, the margins are slightly modestly lower based on these divestments, but then we will see two positives coming out of it. One is higher synergy opportunity, which will help to drive the margins then further up in the future, as well as the proceeds of these divestments will help with additional buyback capacity, which is also, of course, a positive then for the EPS in order to offset the lost earnings.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay, thank you. If you don't mind, a follow-up. Just one thing I haven't heard before was kind of a termination fee on ETFs. Could you just elaborate on that a little bit more? Are they going to internal indices that they're creating on their own? Or, you know, what happened all of a sudden?

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

As you know, in the index business, occasionally an organization will rebalance or maybe they might bring together some indices and switch to another party. When we have a contract in place with an ETF provider that's using our index, if they switch, it could be that built in the contract there's an early cancellation fee, and that would be the case that we saw during this quarter.

Shlomo Rosenbaum
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay, thank you.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We will now take our final question from Alex Kramm with UBS. Sir, you may ask your question.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes. Hey, good morning, everyone. Just one quick follow-up on the upside to the synergies. I know you've given a lot of color, but can you give a little bit more detail in terms of what you were able to look into now, given that the deal is not closed and what is still prevented? I guess what I'm asking, and I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, what further synergy opportunities may be out there that you haven't been able to tackle? As for example, you may look at the IHS Markit standalone cost base a little bit further once you own the company. Or are there things that you already have in your mind that you're just not willing to put numbers around yet?

Again, I know I'm getting ahead of myself a little bit. Thank you.

Ewout Steenbergen
EVP and CFO, S&P Global

Thanks, Alex. Really appreciate your joining the call today. I think you should see this in the following way. We do have, of course, certain restrictions legally with respect to how far we can look into certain details with respect to financials, in terms of commercial agreements, in terms of procurement agreements, because the two companies are still run as standalone entities at this point in time.

The way how you can solve for that partially is through so-called clean rooms, where you have a separate segregated area where people can look into those particular details, but that can never be shared with any of the respective organizations. Definitely after we are able to complete the transaction, we have an opportunity to look even more deeper into all of that and further make those synergy numbers more robust compared to what we have now. Again, as I said before, we think that we have a very rigorous process in place. We have already had four submission rounds, bottom-up substantiation of all of the synergies. We'll have a fifth round before the ultimate completion of the transaction. Then definitely, of course, we'll then learn more after we can start to operate as a combined company.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

All right. Well, thank you very much. That's it for me.

Doug Peterson
President and CEO, S&P Global

Great. Thank you, Alex. I'm gonna make some closing remarks. First of all, I wanna thank everyone for joining the call today. As you saw, we had very strong performance in the third quarter. We delivered exceptional financial results with a 13% top line growth, an adjusted diluted EPS of 24% growth. We launched new product platforms. We advanced our ESG propositions and many, many more things going on. As we're able to talk about, we're moving forward on the IHS Markit merger. This is something that we're very excited about. The path towards regulatory approval is getting clear. We now have to execute on the divestitures that we discussed today to achieve the full value, but also we don't wanna rush.

We wanna have time to close and also to make sure that we can execute those transactions well. As you know, we also have integration planning going on, which is identifying synergies, but more importantly, it's also identifying strategies for our businesses, how we're gonna work together, how we're gonna address the needs of our customers, how we're going to be bringing together technology and, very importantly, data. Most importantly, our people and our culture, and all of this work is going extremely well. Today on this call, I also wanna thank our people. They've been working now for 600 days. It sounds like a lot. It's 600 days people have been working from home and working remotely, starting to come back to the offices.

When they do, I'd love to welcome them, depending on which offices we're around the world. Our people have been dedicated. They've been working hard. They've been able to deliver the kind of results that you saw earlier, as well as work on this exciting transformation for the company with the merger. They've been diligent. They're helping rethink and reimagine the future of the work, and I wanna thank them for all of their dedication and commitment to making this company what it is and looking forward to the future for building an even better company. Then finally, I wanna thank everyone on the call, the analysts for your questions, and also the shareholders for your support. Thank you very much. Looking forward to a great fourth quarter and holidays at the end of the year. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

This concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presenter's slides is available now for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. Replays of the entire call will be available in about two hours. The webcast with audio and slides will be maintained on S&P Global's website for one year. The audio-only telephone replay will be maintained for one month. On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating and wish you a good day.

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