Good morning, welcome to SouthState's Q4 2022 earnings call. This is Will Matthews, and I'm here with John Corbett, Steve Young, and Jeremy Lucas. John and I will make a few prepared remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions. As always, a copy of the earnings release and the presentation slides are located on our website under the Investor Relations tab. Before we begin our remarks, I want to remind you that comments we make may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws and regulations. Any such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in the press release and presentation for more information about our forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties which may affect us. I'll turn the call over to John Corbett, our CEO.
Thank you, Will. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our call. We are really proud of our team and the momentum that's been building throughout 2022. I think of 2021 as a year that we were taking the time to plant the seeds for the future. 2022 was a year where those seeds began to take root and to grow. That growth is reflected in the results that we announced last night. During the 4th quarter, PPNR per share increased 11% over the Q3 . That took us to a PPNR return on assets over 2% and a return on tangible equity of 20%. We set aside $47 million in reserves but incurred less than $1 million in charge-offs.
Credit quality metrics continue to be excellent, and Will can walk you through the impacts of the Moody's economic forecast later in the call. Total loans grew 19% annualized in the quarter. Over the last few years, we have recruited some of the best middle market bankers in the Southeast. That team is doing a great job as C&I loans specifically grew at 27% annualized. End of period deposits declined 6% annualized, and we have still got balance sheet flexibility with an 83% loan to deposit ratio. Our total cost of deposits landed at 21 basis points. So far this cycle, our cumulative total deposit beta is only 5%. If you step back and look at the full year for 2022, PPNR per share was up 36% over 2021.
Loans grew 17%, deposits decreased 5%, and as we right-sized the balance sheet, net interest margin expanded 120 basis points. Over the entire year, we set aside $82 million in loan loss provisions, but only incurred $4 million in charge-offs. We strengthened our reserves in 2022 to prepare for a likely economic slowdown in 2023. In addition to organic growth, our integration team successfully completed the Atlantic Capital conversion last summer, and our Atlanta bankers are doing a terrific job in a dynamic market. The Census Bureau released their latest population report last month. We updated a Census Bureau map on page 6 of the deck that breaks out the four regions of the country.
Since the pandemic began in 2020, 1.7 million people in the Western states, the Northeast, and the Midwest, sold their homes, they packed their bags, and they moved to the South. Of the 1.7 million people that moved to the South, two-thirds of them landed in our SouthState markets. Based on the latest census report, SouthState continues to do business in four of the six fastest growing states in the country, with Florida ranking number one as the fastest growing state in the country last year. As we think about the economy and the year ahead, it seems to us that the Fed is getting what it wanted. The economy is slowing and loan pipelines are shrinking. We don't know if 2023 will be a soft landing, a mild or a moderate recession.
What we believe is that regardless of the direction of the economy, based on the level of population migration, the South will outperform other areas of the country. We believe in the power of compounding over time, our aspiration has always been to grow everything good at the bank at a compounded annual growth rate of 10% a year over a cycle. Three years ago this week, we announced the merger of equals of CenterState and SouthState and began the integration process coincidentally right when the pandemic hit. It's obviously been a volatile three years of monetary policy since the merger announcement, and our growth has been lumpy. If you look back over the last three years, and if you smooth out the lumpiness of the cycle, we have grown at the pace that we planned.
Deposits have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 13% since the merger announcement, and loans have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 9% a year since the merger announcement. Our team is executing on our plan, and we are now witnessing the earnings power of their hard work. I'll close by congratulating and thanking all of our team members from our IT team that made big improvements to our digital offerings, to our risk management areas that have strengthened our defenses, to our bankers that generated $13 billion of new loans during the year, and our branch employees that have cared for our clients through countless changes. You've done a great job in a challenging environment. Will, I'll turn it over to you.
Thank you, John. I'll echo your comments. The team has really done a great job executing in this environment, leading to great results for the quarter and the year. We had another very strong quarter in net interest revenue with a tax equivalent NIM of 3.99%, up 41 basis points from Q3, and core net interest income up $36 million. Our loan yields improved by 45 basis points and our cost of total deposits rose by 13 basis points versus Q3. As we noted last quarter, we expect our deposit beta to increase from this point forward. Non-interest income totaled $63 million, down $10 million from Q3. A few items I'll mention impacting non-interest income. We wrote down the value of our MSR asset by $3.2 million, which led to negative mortgage division revenue for the quarter.
We also wrote down our SBA servicing rights asset by $900,000 for a combined $4.1 million write-down on servicing assets in the quarter. You'll also note that we began applying settled-to-market accounting for variation margin collateral on exchange cleared swaps to net against the swap asset or liability. That resulted in a decrease in deposits and swap assets on the balance sheet and a decrease in the corresponding interest expense and non-interest income with no effect on net income. To help with your models, we have adjusted prior periods accordingly, as noted on page 11 of the release. Mortgage production fell in the quarter to approximately $700 million, with 81% of the volume being portfolio. Looking forward, expectations for mortgage production in 2023 remain muted across the industry.
We expect ours to also be down significantly from 2022. We expect our percentage of secondary market production to increase. Correspondent income continued to be somewhat challenged in this rate environment. Service charge income showed a seasonal lift. Our wealth management division closed out another strong year. Non-interest expenses of $228 million were up slightly from Q3, with no big swings versus the prior quarter. Looking to 2023, we currently estimate NIE in the $950 million range, with the Q1 being in the low two thirties. That would represent an increase of approximately 5% from 2022 if normalized for 12 months of Atlantic Capital.
I will note that there are of course factors in our business lines and in loan production that can cause the NIE number to increase or decrease through the year due to the impact on commissions, incentives, and deferred loan costs. On the balance sheet, the $1.3 billion in loan growth John mentioned was centered in single-family residential, CRE and CRE construction, and C&I loans. We are starting to see some slight increased usage on commercial lines, line of credit utilization remains about 5% below pre-pandemic levels. Expectations for loan growth in 2023 are in the mid-single-digit % range as we are seeing pipelines and pre-flight discussions declined and a general sense of cautiousness amongst borrowers.
Deposits declined approximately $600 million in the quarter. Coupled with loan growth, our cash and time sold position declined $1.6 billion to end the quarter at $1.3 billion. We continue to have very little wholesale funding with only $150 million in brokered CDs and no FHLB advances at year-end. Our risk-based regulatory capital ratios were essentially flat compared to Q3. Our TCE ratio improved approximately 40 basis points to 7.2%. Ending TBV per share rose back above $40 to end the year. Turning to credit, as John noted, we continue to have excellent credit results. We recorded a higher provision expense due to economic forecast changes. We had minimal net charge-offs for the quarter and the year, 1 and 2 basis points respectively.
In fact, excluding DDA overdraft charge-offs, we had net loan recoveries for both the quarter and the year. NPLs were up $8 million, ending at 36 basis points of loans, caused by a $9 million increase in acquired SBA NPLs, which are generally 75% government guaranteed. Net unguaranteed NPLs were almost flat. As John mentioned, criticized and classified assets were down significantly, with a $12 million decline in substandard loans and an $85 million decline in special mention loans. Our $47 million in provision expense was up $23 million from Q3 and was not due to a deterioration in credit, but rather due primarily to changes in economic forecasts with growth a secondary factor. $33 million of this provision expense was for loan losses and $14 million was for the reserve for unfunded commitments.
As noted on slide 31, the ending reserve was 118 basis points of loans with another $67 million in the reserve for unfunded commitments. The combined total as a percentage of loans is up approximately 9 basis points from Q3. Finally, I'll note that we have included some additional credit information on loan categories of interest in slides 33 and 34. Operator, we'll now take questions.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I guess maybe if I could start just with a question around resi mortgage and what you would expect to see that do on balance sheet. it's been a nice additive portion of growth. I think you just said, Will, you might have more mortgage going to the secondary market next year. What's the driver of that? Is that pricing or is that more that you're reaching more of a concentration limit on your balance sheet? Or how can we think about that, the interplay there on mortgage?
Yes. Hey, hey, Stephen. It's Steve. Yeah, it's been a really nice year for residential mortgage. If you think about the volatility in that, in that business, particularly with the rates, it's changed a lot since the beginning of the year. I think at the beginning of the year, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was somewhere in the 3 and a quarter %. It hit a high of about 7%, I think, 7 and a half in the late Q3. We have a slide in the deck which talks. I think it's page 15 in the deck, and it describes sort of the balance sheet growth over the last 3 years in residential mortgage.
What you'll see in that graph, if you look at it, is, when rates were very low in 2020 and early 2021, we shrank the residential portfolio and sold a lot of our production in the secondary market when rates or when gain on sale margins were high. You can see as rates started rising, we started putting more of that on our balance sheet. If you look at a three-year cycle, we grew about $950 million, but we shrank some and we grew some, depending on the balance sheet management side. It was about 6% CAGR over the course of a three-year period.
As we sort of normalize that, I would think that, our residential mortgage will grow about the same as the rest of our loan book, and I think we have got it to mid-single digits. J ust to give you some perspective, we have grown 6% CAGR over the course of a three-year period. Clearly residential rates, have come down and the secondary market is a little bit more attractive than it was, a few months ago.
Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Steve. I think last quarter you said an 80%-85% loan-to-deposit ratio by year-end 2023. Obviously we are already at that 83% level. Do you think that moves higher than that 85% range at this point? Is the 24% cycle deposit beta still the right number to think about, or given how much outperformance you've had to date, do you think it's better than that?
Yes. Beth, this is Steve again. I guess from a loan-to-deposit ratio, let's talk about sort of our guidance and really, it really hasn't changed a whole lot. I think our starting point changed a little bit on the deposit side, and that's why we had a little bit higher deposit rate. O ur goal is for 2023 is to grow loans mid-single digits and keep deposits roughly flat or maybe slightly up, but somewhere in that area. We have that page. Let me take a bigger picture just for a second. I think you are trying to get to the question about margin, so let me just talk to that a little bit.
John mentioned it on the call, we had a great year on margin expansion. I think we have page 12 in the deck that talks about, the progression of net interest margin from the 4th quarter of last year to this, the quarter this year. NIM's up 120 basis points. I have never seen that in my career, from last 4th quarter, and it's actually up 41 basis points this quarter. As we talk about guidance for margin, I'm going to give you the same guidance for 2023 that we had in October with just 1 update. As you think about the assumptions for margin, there's really 3 things.
It's the size of the interest-earning assets, it's the assumption of interest rates, and it's the last question you asked, which was the deposit beta assumption. In October when we had this call, we gave a guidance for about a $40 billion average interest-earning asset base in 2023. W e are starting out a little smaller than that, but probably end a little, larger. There's really no change to that guidance. On the last earnings call as it relates to interest rates, on the last earnings call in October, the Moody's consensus forecast was for Fed funds to peak out at 4.75% in 2023. I think in the last forecast, it's moved up 25 basis points to peak out at 5%. There to be a 25 basis point decrease by the Q4.
If you average it out, it's basically the same for 2023. The question you asked on page 20 is our deposit beta, it shows our cycle to deposit beta is at 5% versus our historical at 24% from last time. We just continue to model the same deposit beta as last cycle. Based on the interest rate forecast deposit beta, we would expect deposit costs to get in that 1.15%-1.25% that second part of the year, which is about 100 basis points from where we were this past quarter.
As we think about that timing, we would expect, 40%-50% of that to happen in the Q1 with the remainder of that over the rest of the year. With all that, I'd just say, During our last call, we guided to a. I n 2023, we guided to a 360-380 NIM range for 2023. Our guidance or our assumptions really haven't changed on any of the assumptions. We are increasing our NIM guide to 370-390 for 2023, and that increase really is due to the 10 basis point reclass of the interest cost on the swap collateral that is now into non-interest income.
Our non-interest or our net interest income guide increases by 10 basis points, and it decreases by the same amount to non-interest income. Total revenue's the same. Yeah, really our guidance is essentially the same, just with a little geography change. It's a long-winded answer, but hopefully that gives you the pieces and parts as we are thinking about 2023.
Yes. Extremely helpful color, Steve. Thank you. If I could just squeeze in one last one, just maybe more high level here. John, you noted 3 years since you announced the larger MOE here, and you still have an advantage currency and as you said in really some of the best markets in the country. If you were to do incremental M&A over the next, let's call it 2 years, what would be, do you think, your focus there? Is it still deepening further in your current markets? Would you look to expand into other strong Southeast markets? How do you think about the franchise over the next couple of years?
Sure, Stephen. I think, this question was asked last quarter, and really our thoughts on M&A have not changed. Our view is that as we look into 2023, M&A is going to be pretty slow, for a couple of reasons. Right now there is not a lot of clarity as it relates to the regulatory approval process, and there's not a lot of clarity as it relates to potential recession risk. I think the whole industry is going to be slow on M&A in 2023. I believe it's likely to pick up, towards the end of the year as bank boards begin to meet and think about, the future earnings stream.
If you've got an inverted yield curve, it's likely that earnings are going to flatten off in 2024 and people will be more enthused about M&A than they are today. Our thought process, we have built the company in high growth markets and typically the type of target that makes he most sense for us is something that's about 10% our size to a third of our size. Our preference is our existing high-growth markets. It's easier to get synergies, and we have got markets that are four of the six fastest-growing states in the country. That would be our preference. If we ever left the existing footprint that we have today, we would look for similar growth characteristics.
If you look at the GDP of the 6 states we are in, it would represent the fourth largest GDP in the world. We have got a lot of opportunities to fish where we are at.
Great. That's a really interesting statistic. Appreciate that. Thanks for all the color. Congrats on a great quarter.
You bet.
Great year.
Thanks. Good morning.
Morning, Catherine.
Just to follow up on the deposit beta conversation. Y our betas have just been so incredible and, I think the call for them to stay at about a 24% level is obviously going to be industry leading. Is there a way to just I think a lot of it is because of your deposit composition, right? You've got so much in checking. It's very granular portfolio. we are seeing betas really accelerate across the industry. Is there a way to explain why the beta won't accelerate as much as you're seeing some peers? Is it within that, talk about the balance or the deposit composition?
Are you expecting much change in that composition or for your balance of CDs, checking, BDAs to remain about the same? Maybe give us a sense as to the betas within each deposit category, just to show that maybe some of your higher cost categories really are having a beta like everybody else, but it's your mix that's driving this, better performance. Thanks.
Sure, Catherine. It's Steve, and that's a mouthful of a question, but I think I get your question.
Mm-hmm.
Let me I'll go back to page 18 is our sort of our deposit discussion, and I think you laid out a couple of these things. Help me. I'll try to expand on that. 61% on page 18. 61% of our deposits are in checking accounts. Typically those are, the warehouse accounts for commercial, small business and retail. Our peers are at 43%. I f I were to point to one thing, I think that would probably be the reason that we think the overall deposit beta, is at 24%. W hen you look at the different pieces, it's not just commercial, it's not just small business, it's not retail.
It's really almost a third, a third, a third in each of those categories. You can see the various average checking balances. Having said all that, it is clearly a battle on the deposit front. The most sensitive things that are going to be to interest rates on deposit accounts are going to be money markets and CDs. Like everyone else, we are feeling the same thing. That's why I think as we look at the next year, and if we look at those deposit betas and we assume that we end the year about 100 basis points higher than where we are today, a lot of that, we think 40%-50% of that gets front-loaded into the Q1.
The reason for that is, we certainly are feeling the pressure on the money market CD side. In, as of January first, we raised rates across the board. I think that area of the balance sheet is going to feel much more rate sensitive than our checking accounts. Our job, of course, is to continue to grow core clients to protect the deposit franchise, which is, as , the most important part of our balance sheet. A s you see volatility in rates and how the yield curve has changed over the past 12 months. I t was going to catch up.
It is catching up for sure, but we still feel good today about our total cycle beta, and assuming that the Fed, stops raising rates here in the next quarter or so, yeah, we'll see a lag. It'll definitely continue to increase some. We like sort of our position and that NIM guide has all that put together. Hopefully that's helpful.
Catherine-
Yes. That's very helpful.
I'll just elaborate a little bit. Obviously, this cycle is a little different than ones we have seen in the past, and we are giving you our best estimates based on what we see thus far. We are certainly, out there battling the same battle everyone else is. We do feel like we enter it with a really healthy core deposit base and mix. We have really allowed our market leaders who are closest to the customers some ability to negotiate, with clients on a one-off basis and rather than us trying to make all the decisions from headquarters. That's our strategy thus far, and hopefully we'll be successful and have a beta somewhat like last time. It is a different environment, of course, we acknowledge that.
For sure. Okay. That's really helpful. The, I think my other question is this is just on the reclass of the interest cost of the swap collateral that you disclosed this quarter. I saw that, it's about $8.4 million today that's been increasing obviously as rates have been going up over the past couple of quarters. As we think about if we are trying to model what that number is it fairly steady at this $8.4 million, assuming the Fed maybe up a little bit with just two more hikes and then it plateaus, this is about where that level should be? How is there something more with rates changing that drives what that number is over the next few quarters?
Yes. Catherine, there's really 2 pieces to it. It's not easy to predict. That's the short answer. The 2 factors is number 1, we are talking about the amount of collateral we post. The amount of the collateral is really dependent on the 10-year Treasury essentially. The cost of that collateral is dependent on the Fed funds rate. If you think about it, really we are sort of at a neutral point when the 10-year is around 2%. As rates come down, less collateral posted to us, the 10-year rate comes down. As the Fed funds rate moves up or down, the interest thereon moves up or down. It 's hard to predict.
I think Steve's numbers he was just giving you, he was assuming about $10 million a quarter in that 10 basis point comment he made a few minutes ago about margin dollars moving to margin dollars from non-interest income. It's a little bit of a, of a swag at this point.
Great. Okay. I guess my big picture here was thinking that it wasn't like that's going away and that's part of the guidance for the NIM. It's, it just should be stable going forward, which helps. Just thinking about that.
Yes.
Okay.
Catherine, I'd just say that, it was about $800 million at the end of the quarter, give or take a little bit. If we are the close to 5% Fed funds rate, that's about $40 million a year, and that's sort of the assumption.
Understood.
That's the 10 basis points on assets.
Understood. That makes sense.
Yes.
Okay. Perfect. Maybe my last question just on the fee outlook. Has anything changed? the correspondence has been a little bit lighter than expected, outside even the reclass. Just any thoughts on your forward guidance for fees as we enter 2023?
Yes. Yeah, Catherine, fee income was a little over $63 million, 57 basis points of assets. Our last guidance was between 60 and 70 basis points, but, as Will mentioned, earlier, we had some one-off events, some mortgage servicing, SBA servicing asset write-downs. I think that was $4.1 million or $4.2 million. Of course the reclass, the Central Clear collateral, was another $8.5 million. If you kinda threw all that out, it'd be about 68 basis points. It would've been in the middle of the range.
As we think about, you know, comparing the Q4 to the future, until the Fed stops raising rates, and some of our interest rate sensitive businesses like mortgage and correspondent, we think it's probably, you know, similar, 55 to 65 basis points of assets. Then, you know, and that's not decline of 10 basis points. You know, if the Fed stops raising rates, we would expect that to start picking back up again and for it to, you know, the non-interest income to average assets to increase back towards 60 to 70 basis points. You know, we are in a transition period where NIM is obviously, you know, 120 basis points up. Non-interest income has fallen.
My guess is when the Fed stops raising rates, you know, we have guided with you with the NIM and probably the non-interest income businesses start moving back up toward the back half of the year if our interest rate forecast is right.
Great. Okay. Very helpful. Thank you. Great quarter.
Thank you, Catherine.
Hey, good morning, Thank you for taking my questions. Appreciate all the color. Just on the expenses, you know, a couple questions. Can you just remind us what the expectation is for the FDIC expense pickup is this quarter? And if you can remind us what you're assuming for annual merit increases, you know, FICA in the Q1. Just trying to get a level set as we think about, you know, just the Q1 within the context of, you know, roughly $950 million of NIE for the year. Thanks.
Yes. Michael, you know, I don't, I don't have the precise FDIC insurance expense model in my head, so I can't answer that part of the question. You know, we have, we have modeled essentially a 4% merit increase across the footprint, and we do have some new hires. We are investing in a number of parts of our business across the footprint as a result of our strategic planning and strategic initiatives process that we just completed in the fall. So there's some new hires coming in as well on some of that. They'll be coming in throughout the course of the year as those initiatives begin.
all that's baked into that $950 million number that I referenced, and, you know, expecting something in the low $230s in the Q4. Like I said in my prepared remarks, and you know this, but there are factors that can cause that to move around a little bit. Loan production moving up or down will impact deferred loan costs. you know, production versus incentive goals will affect incentive compensation, things like that. Those are all variables that are in there, but that's our best estimate at this point.
Perfect. Then just moving to credit, obviously you built the reserve this quarter. It seems obviously, you know, changing a little bit of the model inputs, but it seems pretty conservative, especially with, you know, criticized, classified, you know, moving actually down again, Q on Q. Is there anything that, you know, when you look out at the portfolio that worries you? There's been a lot of talk around, you know, office and commercial real estate, maybe construction to some degree. You know, I think this is asked every quarter, but just generally, how are you feeling about credit?
You know, assuming the backdrop continues to, you know, soften or deteriorate, would we expect to see that reserve ratio continue to grind higher under those pretenses? Thanks.
Michael, it's John. I could maybe start on the asset quality if Will has an opinion on CECL. I will let him address that. You know, as you mentioned, the asset quality is remarkably good right now. C harge-offs are 1 basis point really all DDA, we have had net recoveries, loan recoveries in the quarter and in last year. Nonaccruals increased slightly, it's almost entirely, as Will said, government guaranteed SBA, the non-guaranteed portion's basically flat. We have added some slides too, Michael. You might be interested in page 33 and 34. That breaks out our underwriting loan-to-value debt service coverages on commercial real estate also our consumer portfolio.
As far as the areas that we are focused on that we think could be challenging in the next year or two, small business naturally is one. I mentioned that tick up in SBA loans, but fortunately, we have got the guarantees there. If you think about the pressure on small businesses with wage inflation, rent inflation, interest rate costs, that's an area to watch. It's very small for us, $200 million, but the assisted living area, with COVID, that continues to be something that we are working through, some weakness there. On office, the metrics are all great right now for us. There is this social demographic shift that's going on.
We look at our office book, it's about 4.4% of the total loan portfolio. You know, right now we are at a 62% loan to value and a 1.67 times debt service coverage. It underwrites fine. I think the advantage for us on office is that we have done mostly smaller properties. 78% of them are under 150,000 sq ft, and our average office loan is only $1.3 million. You know, 90% of the portfolio in office for us doesn't mature until 2025 or after. Hopefully, the office shift will be a slow-moving train and our clients and us will be able to react as the market shifts. Those are the areas we are watching.
We haven't seen, you know, the deterioration. Our past dues are stable and special mention classifieds are coming down.
Yes. On the CECL point, Michael, I guess a couple things. One, you know, our CECL model utilizes loss data from every bank we have acquired, excluding five or six failed banks, dating back to 2004. This is both of the companies making up our MOE. That's about 60 or 61 banks in total, I think. You know, our loss drivers really vary by loan type. They include, you know, South Atlantic region unemployment, the housing price index year-over-year change, the CRE price index year-over-year change, apartment rental vacancy rate, and GDP for the South Atlantic region. You know, our future reserve levels or our future provisioning expense is going to depend upon changes in forecasts for those loss drivers as well as our actual net losses, which of course brings down the reserve.
We continue to be more conservative in our outlook than Moody's. Our reserve is about 20%-25% higher than it would be under the straight Moody's baseline scenario, though Moody's has gotten a little more conservative showing more economic weakening this quarter. You know, I don't think it's appropriate for me to comment on the validity of an accounting standard if FASB makes the rules and we live by them. If you look at our company over the last three years and you sum up the absolute value of our provision expense, positive and negative, you get something, you know, north of $500 million. Over the same three-year period, we have had cumulative net charge-offs of something around $12 million.
I'm not suggesting that 1.5 basis points a year is a sustainable net charge-off level. I think in our view, what's more important is not so much how much provision expense we have, but rather how much money we lose in net charge-offs, because until we charge it off, the provision expense really just moves from one form of capital to another.
I certainly appreciate that. John, I appreciate those slides you put in the back. I forgot to mention those in the outset of the question, it's good to hear. Just one final one for me, point of clarification. Obviously, the NIM guide moving up a little bit. That's the all-in NIM, correct? If you can just tell us what the expectation is for accretion or scheduled accretion is this year. Thanks.
Yeah, Michael. Yes, that's right. It's all-in NIM between 3.70% and 3.90% for the year. You know, the accretion, of course, I think in the Q4 is around seven and a half million. I think we are modeling that around 20 million dollars for the full year of 2023, so that comes down a little bit. All that's factored in the entire cut.
Yes. Just to reiterate, though, you know, the move up essentially was the geography change with respect to the collateral. As Steve said earlier, I just want to make sure that point's clear that, you know, guides us up on the NIM, but by a similar amount down on the non-interest income. Total revenue essentially where we were guiding last quarter.
Yes. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Thank you, Michael.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen.
Hi, David.
Appreciate the guidance in terms of the expectations for loan growth. Obviously, you have had, you know, entered Q4 with plenty of excess liquidity or plenty of liquidity, took down cash a bit. How should we think about the funding of that loan growth? Is that securities run off, a little bit more cash? Do you get a little bit more aggressive on wholesale borrowings? Just curious how you're thinking about the funding of the growth this year.
Yes. David, this is Steve. You know, if the mid-single digits, let's say it's a billion and a half dollars in loan growth, give or take a little bit, is our expectation for 2023. We have about, I don't know, $800 million-$900 million coming off the investment portfolio, so we'll use that cash. With our guide with deposits somewhere between flat and up, $500 million-$600 million is sort of the expectation for the year.
Then, you know, as it relates to deposits, you know, as Will mentioned on the call, you know, at the end of the year, I think we had $150 million or so of brokers that's been out there for, I don't know, 3 or 4 years, and no wholesale borrowings at the Federal Home Loan Bank. You know, I think as we go through this period, I would expect. Let me go back. In 2019, at the end of 2019, I think we had a little over $1 billion, $1.2 billion in between broker and FHLB. It wouldn't surprise me if over the course of the next 12 months we had something similar to that. The bottom line is pretty close to flat on deposits, little bit up.
I appreciate that. Curious, just a final question from me. In terms of onboarding of new loans this quarter, just curious what you're seeing new loan yields on new production this quarter versus last. Thanks.
Yes. David, our new loan production, I don't have it in front of me for the Q4. I think in December it was approaching 6% or so on the new loan production. I think our overall portfolio yield as a spot day at the end of the quarter was a little less than 5%, but close to 5%. You know, essentially your portfolio is around 5%. I think we ended Well, the quarter was around 43, I think was the average. I think our ending was a little less than 5%, and we are putting out loans close to 6%, give or take.
Great. Appreciate the color.
All right. Drew, thank you. Those are good questions. As always, we appreciate your interest in joining us on a busy earnings call morning. Appreciate that. If you have any follow-up questions in your models, don't hesitate to give us a ring. Thank you. Have a great day.