Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Stem third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ted Durbin, Head of Investor Relations for Stem. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. This is Ted Durbin, Head of Investor Relations at Stem. Welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, please note that some of the statements we will be making today are forward-looking. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. We therefore refer you to our latest 10-Q and our other SEC filings. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures. Additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release. We will be using a slide presentation today. Our earnings release and presentation are on the investor relations section of our website at www.stem.com. John Carrington, our CEO, and Bill Bush, CFO, will start the call today with prepared remarks.
Mike Carlson, COO, and Prakesh Patel, Chief Strategy Officer, will also be available for the question and answer portion of the call. Now I will turn the call over to John.
Thank you, Ted. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today. Beginning with slide 3, our agenda will cover five items: our third quarter results, technology leadership and product announcements, and our commercial traction. Bill will then discuss our financial results. Now, let's turn to slide 4 on our third quarter 2023 results and highlights. In the third quarter, we recorded $134 million in revenue, up 34% versus third quarter 2022. Revenue this quarter was negatively impacted by non-recurring adjustments that Bill will discuss later in the call. We set a record for bookings of $676 million. The 3x bookings growth performance drove our contracted annual recurring revenue, or CARR, up 43% versus the third quarter of 2022 and up 17% sequentially.
Adjusted EBITDA came in near breakeven at -$900,000 versus -$13 million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA reflects an adjustment to exclude an exceptional reduction in revenue. With strong revenue growth, solid margins, and continued cost control, our path to profitability continues to improve. We continue to expect achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of this year, a goal we committed to during our Investor and Analyst Day in 2022. Today, we announced an exciting new agreement with SB Energy. We will offer software and services for up to 10 gigawatt hours of storage deployments across North America. This partnership underscores our focus on growing service revenue. At the core of our value proposition to gigawatt scale developers like SB Energy is our AI-driven technology, Athena, which continues to receive third-party recognition for its differentiation and value.
Finally, we're announcing that we expect to achieve full-year adjusted EBITDA positive in 2024 without the need to issue additional equity. This is a key milestone as we move to free cash flow generation and will outline more specifics in our full-year earnings call in February. Please turn to slide 5. In Q3 2023, we far exceeded our guidance for contracted bookings, coming in nearly 2x our guidance, and the highest quarter in company history at $676 million. The booking strength was largely driven by our entry into the bulk power system scale of the front-of-the-meter storage business this year, particularly in the municipal and cooperative customer segment. Industry analysts expect U.S. public power and co-ops will represent over 20% of future storage deployments, and we are well-positioned to serve this market.
Our solar backlog also grew significantly, up 41% year-over-year. For both businesses, we are driving consistent, strong gross margins, a testament to the differentiation of our solutions. We saw a 32% increase in storage AUM this quarter to five gigawatt hours. We have nearly doubled our storage AUM in the past year, a remarkable achievement by the team and another measurable differentiation of the Stem solution. Solar AUM also had the third consecutive quarter of healthy growth, with new customer additions more than offsetting the roll-off of some of our legacy low-margin contracts. This execution resulted in strong CARR growth, up nearly $13 million in a single quarter. Additionally, we are raising our CARR guidance for this year. End market demand remains very strong. Falling equipment prices for both solar and storage are improving project economics for our partners.
The recent clarity on some key tax incentives also remains a major tailwind for the industry. Overall, we have seen several industry analysts come out on a key debate in our sector regarding the impact of higher interest rates. From our perspective, we can confirm their assessment that project returns are generally higher despite the increase in interest rates... We've seen data from Level Ten Energy PPA Price Tracker validates a 100%+ increase in power purchase agreement prices from 2020 through 2023. Demand continues to be robust, and the focus by developers and asset owners is on finding ways to accelerate project timelines. Our successful project track record, paired with our industry-leading software and services, is particularly well suited for this market environment.
As a reminder, we do not have any direct interest rate exposure by virtue of our fixed rate debt, which have maturities into 2028 and 2030. Please turn to slide 6, highlighting our technology leadership. We are pleased to be recognized once again by a third party for our technology leadership, earning the Sustainability Product of the Year Award from the Business Intelligence Group. These awards highlight products designed to help companies improve their sustainability objectives. On the commercial side, our technology solutions continue to resonate with customers in multiple markets. In New York, specifically the Bronx, we helped Nine Dot Energy bring the first energy storage system into service. We are co-optimizing multiple value streams for our customers in New York and building on the coincident peak prediction expertise we developed for other markets.
This is another example of our ability to rapidly scale Athena® at low incremental costs as we enter new markets. Between Nine Dot Energy and some of our other partners, we expect to have over 700 MWh under Athena® control in the New York market over the coming years. Additionally, Athena® is supporting Nine Dot Energy with customers, including Starbucks, who is the anchor subscriber to the Pelham Gardens project, monetizing sustainable energy credits in New York. The system is operational and currently generating energy credits. In our solar asset performance management offering, we introduced a new application, Event Manager, which helps our customers resolve downtime issues on their assets. In the last year alone, we have onboarded over 1 GW of assets to Event Manager.
In ERCOT, our data science team has been refining their forecasting and optimization algorithms, including what we believe is one of the leading day-ahead and real-time price forecasting engines in the market. Based on our modeling, we believe PowerBidder can offer a 10%-40% uplift in revenue for assets in Texas versus competitive offerings in that market. Please turn to slide 7. With the launch of PowerBidder Pro, we are introducing a new software tool for energy professionals to manage their clean energy assets. The product targets asset owners, traders, and power purchase agreement offtakers, a segment of customers we believe are underserved by current offerings in the market. PowerBidder Pro empowers these customers with active asset control. Our customers can take charge of bespoke trading strategies, tailored risk management tools, and use our forecasts or input their own market forecast.
We have seen strong initial customer interest for this offering, with multiple gigawatt-hours in the pipeline. Moving to slide 8. Today, we're excited to announce a significant technology and commercial alliance with SB Energy. This partnership is an example of our focus on growing high-margin software and service revenue. Under the terms of the agreement, we will offer our modular ESS solution and related software services to SB Energy across their 10 gigawatt-hour+ project development pipeline in North America. SB Energy is one of the leading utility-scale renewable developers, and we are proud to partner with them to advance their vision of generating 24/7 renewable energy at gigawatt scale. In addition, we are collaborating to integrate our industry-leading Athena AI into the SBE digital platform. This will include the development of additional applications such as control and optimization of long-duration energy storage.
Importantly, we view this partnership as a template for additional engagement with asset owners, project developers, and energy trading firms to drive a programmatic approach for growing high-margin service revenue. On to slide 9. As we highlighted last quarter, the municipal utility and electrical cooperative segment represents an attractive market for Stem. In particular, these entities are very focused on enhancing the reliability of their power networks and are seeking to drive decarbonization and greater engagement with their members and end customers. In late 2022, we leveraged our winning playbook of investing early in an attractive market where we can drive differentiation through our unique software and service capabilities. We accomplished this by onboarding key stakeholders in the muni and co-op market with preferential access to Stem's deep supply chain relationships.
Bill will discuss the financial details of these arrangements, but at a high level, this engagement has resulted in nearly $1 billion of contracted bookings in the last 12 months, with our position in the market going from zero to over 15% market share based on expected deployments in 2024. U.S. public power and co-op market is expected to represent over 20% of all future energy storage deployments and is forecast to represent the fastest growing segment of the FTM market through the end of this decade. We expect to continue our leading momentum in this exciting segment, with engagement on multiple gigawatts of bulk power system projects. Stay tuned to more wins here, and now I'll turn the call over to Bill.
Thanks, John. Starting on page 11 with our results for the third quarter of 2023. As John mentioned, to gain a foothold in the Bulk Power System market, we offered certain strategic partners preferential access to Stem's supply chain network. In certain cases, we offered a guarantee that the value of the purchased hardware would not decline for a certain period of time after purchase, generally 6 months. Additional details on these arrangements are provided in our earnings release and Form 10-Q, filed by the company. The company accounts for such guarantees as variable consideration and updates its estimates of variable consideration each quarter for facts or circumstances that have changed from the time the initial estimate, and as a result, the company recorded a revenue reduction of $37.4 million during the 3- and 9-month period, ended September 30, 2023.
The company does not intend to provide such guarantees in customer contracts going forward, and does not expect that the future revenue reduction, if any, with regard to the guarantees outstanding as of September 30, 2023, will be material. In short, this was an exceptional offering that has allowed us to enter and quickly build a leadership position in an attractive market segment, where we have executed almost $1 billion of contracted bookings in the last 12 months. Now, onto the financial results. Revenue was negatively impacted this quarter by the $37.4 million reduction in revenue I just referenced. Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP gross margin have been adjusted to exclude the impact of such revenue reduction.
Adjusted EBITDA was -$900,000 in Q3, keeping us on track to achieve our goal of being adjusted EBITDA positive in the second half of this year. Achieving adjusted EBITDA positive is a critical profitability milestone for us, and we remain laser-focused on this goal. We continue to drive operating leverage with strict cost controls and optimization strategies. We continue to stay disciplined on operating expenses and affirm that cash OpEx as a percentage of revenue for 2023 will be less than 25%. Turning now to slide 12 for a look at our operating metrics. Backlog increased 125% year-over-year, and increased 35% on a sequential basis to $1.8 billion. The largest driver of the backlog increase was a record $676 million of bookings in the quarter.
End market customer demand remains strong, catalyzed by the continuing clarification of the Inflation Reduction Act and an improved supply chain and hardware price environment. Our AUM on the storage side of the business grew from 3.8 GWh in the second quarter of 2023 to 5 GWh in the third quarter. That's a significant 32% increase, driven by our strong commercial movement and customer demand for Stem solutions. Our operating AUM on the solar asset performance monitoring side of the business ended the quarter at 26.3 GW, up 300 MW or approximately 1%, our third quarter of sequential growth. The solar industry continues to show signs of recovery, evidenced by growing AUM and the backlog growth of 41% year-over-year. Turning now to slide 13 and our 2023 guidance.
Full year revenue guidance has been adjusted downward, dollar for dollar, solely as a result of the $37.4 million reduction in revenue. We expect to trend toward the lower end of our full year non-GAAP gross margin guidance. We are raising fiscal year 2023 CARR guidance by 9% at the midpoint. A steady increase in CARR positions us well to grow high-margin software and services revenue in 2024 and beyond. In addition, we expect continuing strong growth in service revenue, driven by expected commissioning of systems and the results of partnerships, such as the one we announced today with SB Energy. We are tightening the range for full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to -$25 million to -$15 million. We still expect to achieve our goal of being Adjusted EBITDA positive in the second half of 2023.
We define that as the sum of the third and fourth quarters being adjusted EBITDA positive. So with the third quarter in the books, we have confidence that we will be adjusted EBITDA positive in the fourth quarter of this year. We continue to expect to exit the year with more than $150 million in cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet. As previously stated, we expect to achieve full year positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024. We see this goal as a key achievement in our corporate maturation. We will provide more details on our 2024 guidance on our fourth quarter and full year earnings call in February 2024. With that, let me turn the call back over to John for some closing remarks.
Thanks, Bill. Wrapping up on slide 14 with our key takeaways. Third quarter momentum driven by strong end market demand, resulting in record bookings growth, significant storage backlog, AUM and CARR growth, solid solar asset management growth and execution. Our software and services deal execution underscored by the SBE agreement. Athena continues to add additional value for solar and storage customers with new products in multiple markets, and the Muni/Co-op momentum continues, with $1 billion in contracted bookings in the last 12 months. We reiterate our expectation to achieve Adjusted EBITDA positive in the second half of 2023. And finally, we're excited about the tremendous opportunity in front of us, with the expectation that we will achieve full year Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2024 and beyond. With that, I want to thank our key stakeholders, employees, customers, channel partners, suppliers, and shareholders.
Now, operator, let's open the line for questions, please.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. The first question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Please go ahead. We will come back to Brian Lee. The next question comes from Thomas Boyes with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Great. Yep, I appreciate you taking the questions. Maybe just a quick one on the customer contract guarantee. I just want to make sure that I understand how it's structured, because I know this is something we saw in the first quarter of this year as well. Originally, I thought the revenue adjustments could be made all the way up until the first quarter of next year. So is there a floor in place in that structure that we've already reached, or, you know, just given the declines in the lithium carbonate pricing market? Or, you know, did you elect to kind of recognize the maximum amount of exposure this quarter? Just wanna, you know, kind of make sure I understand why there shouldn't be any material changes after, say, the 13th of September. Thanks.
Yeah. So this is Bill Bush. Thanks for that question. So there—the contract that you were referencing is actually somewhat different than what we adjusted for this quarter. In fact, that contract is, as you mentioned, tied to the price of lithium. These contracts were not, and so there are significant differences between those. These effectively had a remarketing right associated with them, which we've now taken what we believe to be the full downside risk associated with them. So we don't expect any material change after this transaction, and in fact, we expect to be able to move on from these contracts in their totality within the first quarter of 2024.
Got it. Appreciate the clarity there. And then maybe, you know, I obviously enjoyed kind of going through the PowerBidder Pro demo at RE+ , that was earlier this year. Maybe could you just talk a little bit more about how the customer response has been thus far? You know, what the timing expectation is for the PowerBidder Pro? And then, you know, what's the go-to-market or deployment strategy? Is this gonna be something that you're primarily going to focus on with new customers, or is there something in place as a way to go back to existing PowerBidder users and kind of convert them over to Pro?
Yeah. So thanks for the question. This is Mike Carlson. As far as where we're at, the initial response, you know, we launched it in September. We had great response at the show at RE+ , and then, correspondingly, a number of specific opportunities as we put it in front of customers. At a high level, the response we got is exactly what they're looking for and not able to find in other opportunities they've considered. We've got proposals out in the field, some which early indication are that they're going to move forward beginning second quarter of 2024. So we'll have product release at the end of this year, production expected in the first half of next year.
As far as our go-to-market strategy with it, obviously, we've got an existing customer base that is considering expanding their own capabilities beyond our service offerings, that we would then continue to add the PowerBidder Pro solution to. And then, obviously, a whole new market that doesn't want to look at our portfolio of customer base.
Prakesh, you want to talk about the bulk power side of it?
Yeah. And one thing I'd add, this is Prakesh Patel, is that this offering is very well suited for gigawatt scale, what we call bulk power system, in the front-of-the-meter segment. It's because these customers or asset owners are typically more sophisticated, have a need for greater control as you're dispatching very large systems into the power grid. And a lot of the functionality involves bespoke trading strategies enabling greater control, better risk management. So it really compounds with some of the things that John talked about earlier in the momentum we're having with muni co-ops and broadly at the larger FTM scale.
Excellent, I appreciate the call there. If I could just sneak one more in, just on the same vein. For the 10%-14% potential uplift that was referenced on slide 6, was that for the plain vanilla PowerBidder, or is that the Pro version? I just wanted to know.
No, that's the core Athena optimization engine, so that's across either-
... offering. It's really our ability to optimize these assets. The PowerBidder Pro, what that allows is customers to further tweak certain risk metrics or their views of forward energy forecasts and the like, but it's available to everyone.
Got it. Thanks again. I appreciate it.
The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for including me in the question queue here. Had a couple. Maybe the first one, just on the announcement this afternoon, SB Energy, you know, the 10-gigawatt pipeline sounds, you know, pretty robust, especially in the context of what they've done to date, as well as what you've deployed to date. Can you give us a sense of, I guess, the near-term or medium-term impact of that relationship? Kinda how quickly do you think you can get volume deployments with them? And also maybe sizing kind of the magnitude of the opportunity. You know, I would imagine the entire 10 gigawatts is convertible, but what- how are you thinking about it when you're framing the opportunity?
Thanks, Brian. John Carrington here, and, yeah, we're really excited about it. I, I think you're talking about a, you know, a top five developer, also a developer that has an extensive and growing pipeline. I would say that our view is this is the first of many of these kind of multi-gigawatt pipelines that we intend to collaborate on with our services and software strategy. And again, it also, we intend to include our modular ESS solution. On the timing side, you know, look, I would say these are becoming much larger projects, which do tend to take longer. So we would expect that, you know, this, this pipeline in particular, is a multi-year pipeline. I like the fact that it is multi-year because we'll do others like this, and it just shows the continued strength we believe in our services and software offering.
So there'll be more of these as we go forward, but you know, again, I think it's a multi-year deal. We just signed this, and so we're now kind of looking at the pipeline and assessing both the timing and what we can provide and where. But it's a really exciting announcement for us. We've had a lot of discussion around software services only, and here is a very significant announcement, in our view, specifically on that objective that we've talked about really since our Analyst Day.
Yeah, no, that's, that's great color. I guess, you know, you had a huge bookings quarter here, so kudos to you on that. Maybe just some follow-ups. Did... it doesn't sound like it based on the timing of, you know, you just signing this deal, but did SB Energy factor into those bookings at all? If not, when do you expect you'd see first bookings from that new relationship? And then, you know, given the sort of record bookings here, were there any of these multi-gigawatt framework-type customers that you haven't been able to announce yet that actually are in the bookings already, but just haven't been in the press?
Yeah. So Brian, thanks for the question. First part of that is that the bookings that we recorded or referenced this quarter don't include any bookings from SB Energy. In general, those are longer lead projects, and we'll start seeing bookings in 2024 for those, and then revenue thereafter. But these are large CAISO, 100+ size, 100 megawatt-hour size+ projects, so they're going to be a lot bigger than an average. As far as the other aspects of your question, I think that, when we're—I mean, and really what SB Energy is, is a—it's a, I think it's a, it's a software and service play for us.
You know, it's moving us into markets that we have not traditionally played, and I think it's a real, shot in the arm for the Athena platform.
Brian, just to add on that, the other string of deals that we announced in this quarter, you know, the 200, the 313, the 1.3 gigawatt hour, that portion of those represents a partner we're working with around the same templatized approach to software services. So, you know, this model seems to be working.
Okay. No, that's great. And then the sort of reiterations around EBITDA as well as the view here that you'll be positive in fiscal 2024 on adjusted EBITDA. Maybe, I know you're not going to give full guidance metrics because we're not there yet in the calendar, but as we think about you transitioning into becoming a positive EBITDA company going forward, you know, starting next year, can you just at a high level give us a sense of, are you embedding gross margin expansion off of this year's level? Is it just purely scale driven, higher volume and revenue growth that's getting you to the adjusted EBITDA positive view for the full year?
Kind of maybe some of the workings around how you get to that outlook for next year without maybe giving us the exact ingredients. Thank you, guys.
Yeah. So as you mentioned, we're—I think we're going to stay away from full year guidance for next year. But I think, you know, kind of starting with this quarter in particular, I mean, you know, we're really close to breakeven. I mean, at $900,000 negative, and, you know, that's a dramatic improvement from the third quarter... really not a significant amount of additional revenue growth, and which is primarily hardware driven. So, you know, I think cost control continues to be a big part of what we're doing, and I think as part—You know, as you start thinking about 2024, I think we're going to continue to see software growth, which is, in general, is going to be high margin revenue. And so, you know, you're—I think you're going to have two parts there.
You're going to have, you know, more hardware sales. I mean, I think we're, you know, we're expecting to do more of that next year, but more importantly, more software and services. Mike and his team are doing a lot in terms of expanding our ProServe initiative, and so you're going to see margin expansion from that standpoint, and more volume just in general. So I think the combination of those two, you know, top-line items with continued cost control in 2024, I think you're going to see, you know... I mean, that's the pathway for a positive EBITDA year for us.
All right. That's great. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on.
The next question comes from Joe Osha with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Yeah, it's a mouthful, Guggenheim. How is everybody today?
Hey, Joe, good to hear from you.
Yeah. Couple questions. First, just looking at the working capital accounts, I mean, there have been some really dramatic swings here and, you know, particularly, you guys made some good progress drawing that inventory number down. Still quite a beefy receivables number. Just wondering how I should think about these in Q4, just in general, you know, how these numbers are likely to trend over the course of the next several quarters as your business continues to grow? And then I have another question.
Sure. Thanks for the question, Joe. First, I would say that we're... You know, the first part of that, of course, is that we reiterated the guidance of around $150 million at a minimum cash level. So that would indicate where—from where we are today, we were going to be a cash generator in the fourth quarter, which means that we expect to, you know, effectively do, you know, two, at least two things. One, would be to continue to drive inventory down, much like we did between Q2 and Q3. And then we're also going to be able to drive down receivables as well, which would be the, you know, ultimately the cash collection.
The balance sheet should continue to, you know, strengthen and have more cash on it relatively, yeah, than what it does today.
Okay. And that's Q4, but I guess just kind of more going forward, right? I mean, you do have, you know, this, this business, you've made kudos to you for the, the progress, but, you know, just in general, right? I mean, this business ties up an awful lot of working capital relative to its, its scale. You know, how should we think about it going forward? You know, how, how are you going to try and manage these numbers over, over time?
I think there's going to be a combination of effects. One, I think is going to be, the modular ESS is going to drive down working capital usage, so you'll see less inventory, less receivables, and the same amount of cash. Second, I think you'll see us having less inventory on the balance sheet, just generally for other non-modular deals, because we're, you know, we're shifting the way that we're purchasing equipment. I think in the past, you know, even as late as like 6, 9 months ago, we were longer on equipment than we are today. Right now, the market is much more, you know, say, turning to a more spot-type buy, to be able to take advantage of favorable pricing and terms.
So I think inventory is going to continue to decline as a part, you know, of the overall part of the balance sheet, and I think receivables will as well. So I think all of that, as we capture more receivables and turn that into cash, you know, we should be in pretty good shape. I mean, I think we had, you know, a pretty good collections quarter, in general. I mean, we were well over $100 million in collections for the quarter, and while driving down inventory and accounts payable. So I think from the standpoint of... That's what I'm saying, is like, I think the balance sheet in general, over the next, you know, bunch of quarters, is going to improve, and end up with more cash on it.
Okay, thank you. And then shifting gears, just looking at your, you know, software and recurring revenue, there's really, really two questions. If I look at that storage software number, $8.1 million, you know, it's up, you know, around 33% from the same number last year. Your storage AUM, as you report it, has more than doubled. So the optimist in me wants to believe that this implies that there's a, you know, some kind of significant hockey stick embedded in this software number as, you know, these projects are commissioned. Is that a fair way to think about it?
I think there's two factors. This is Prakesh, Joe. I think there's two factors impacting that. You know, definitely last quarter, we had extraordinary performance on the market participation side, and not as much in Q3. And then separately, our average deal size has been vectoring much higher. So to your point, we do expect as these larger systems come online, you're going to see larger step changes in the software ARR hit the income statement. So that definitely is a trend.
Well, I'll hand it off to the next caller. Thank you.
The next question-
Thanks, Joe.
The next question comes from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks so much for taking the question here. I just wanted to follow up on just what you're seeing on the hardware side of the business, just in terms of price and availability of supply. I know it's a pass-through for your business, but can you just discuss how it's impacting customer project economics in light of the rising cost of capital environment and therefore demand for your services? Thanks.
... Sure, and it's been a pretty dramatic change. I mean, as you look at the, you know, say, batteries just in general, and I think this also falls down through to part of the solar business also. But, you know, availability is up, prices are down, and we expect that to continue, which is in part why, you know, we're referencing, like, you know, that we're you know, we feel like, you know, we're gonna be shorter on inventory than we have been in the past or placing purchase orders. Because, you know, at this point in time, signing live long-dated supply agreements is gonna be a tough ask, I think. So for us, that's what we're seeing in the marketplace today.
But the market has shifted dramatically in the last year, so I think it's something that we've got to be pretty watchful of over the incoming time period. We are seeing a lot of new supply coming onto the market right now, which is really driving... And not just in the US, but also in China. So you're likely gonna see declining prices.
Hey, Andrew, this is Prakesh. One other thing I'd add is just the equipment price declines we're seeing available from OEMs alone is offsetting the impact of higher interest rates in project economics. So it's a really positive environment with not only that trend, but the fact that, as John highlighted, power purchase agreement pricing has continued to be very robust. So overall, we're seeing much better project economics and significant demand.
Got it. That's, that's super helpful data point. And, and maybe just to follow up on the prior question on just software services growth. You know, what do we need to see, or what, what needs to happen within your business to get closer towards that, that 75% year-over-year growth rate target? I think you've been lagging behind that so far this year. What needs to happen practically within the business and, and maybe in what time frame do you expect that to happen? Thanks.
This is Prakesh. I'd say a big part of it is getting the systems interconnected and permitted, and we talked about how the broader market has seen challenges. As we've moved up the size scale, these projects have been more complex, larger projects generally. There is some light at the end of the tunnel with some recent actions on the federal side to the FERC level as well as at the state level. So we're hopeful these things start to normalize, let's say, in the second half of 2024 and beyond. The other piece is, as we announced today, engagements with large asset owners or developers on a programmatic way to drive services revenue. What's really compelling about that is that's not tied to project timelines or, actually, it's not tied to interconnection timelines, right?
Because we can earn service revenue even earlier in the project life cycle, where we're helping them develop project performance or system design, things of that sort. So it should smooth some of the seasonality. And as John mentioned, we're engaged with multiple of these parties and looking to continue the momentum we're seeing in that space.
Super helpful. I'll take the rest offline. Thank you.
The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin- Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys, it's Alex on for Julien. I'm just curious, I mean, congrats on the wins in the community and co-op space. Definitely one of the more interesting places that we are definitely seeing, I think, storage crop up. I thought this slide where you showed your sort of market share you guys built in ISO-NE, and then, you know, kind of what's happening, we'll say beyond in the community and co-op space was interesting. I mean, what sort of share do you guys think you could take in that space? And, you know, what sort of competitors do you run into? How do you drive differentiation?
You know, I guess, like, one thing you guys have been very good at is sort of carving out niches and dominating in those niches. Just curious how far you can really push that with these announcements?
Yeah, on the community co-op side, it's a market that's very well suited for our capabilities. These are typically smaller entities, so they're not like the larger IOU, investor-owned utilities, where they have army of engineers to write software or a large balance sheet to procure the hardware. So we can really bring the complete Stem solution to these customers. And, you know, they're very forward-thinking around wanting distributed generation, wanting greater engagement with their customers, and we just hit the right part of the market at the right time. You know, I think as John mentioned, in his discussion around these, in less than a year, we went from zero to 15% market share. We think there's upside there, and we'll continue to bang away at that.
Got it. Makes a ton of sense. Just as far as the, the bookings themselves as a, as a bit of a follow-on. Obviously, this is a really outsized quarter for bookings. Your guidance is maintained on the full year basis, but CARR is up. I guess I'm just trying to kind of reconcile those sort of moving pieces. Were these sort of pulled forward, relative to some other projects that may have shifted out, that may have been in late-stage discussions? Just so I can sort of clarify, if you can, the, the interplay between the bookings in this quarter, the, the maintained full year, and, and CARR going up, relative to your prior expectations. Thanks.
Yeah, and thanks for that question. This is Bill. So I think a couple of points in there. One, of course, I mean, this was a record booking quarter for us, but, you know, you also referenced that last quarter we were a little bit lower. And so I think it kind of points to some of the lumpiness of the deals. And, you know, much like we said in the second quarter, the bookings are not revenue-based, and so we feel less pressure to sign a deal in a particular quarter until the terms make sense for us. And so, yeah, so that's kind of how we think about that. We've always thought the $1.5 billion at the midpoint was a reasonable target for us.
You know, I think the fourth quarter, you know, is gonna be able to get us the rest of the way there. We're, you know, just under $1.3 billion. So it really is a—it's an opportunity for us to continue to sign deals in markets which we think are interesting. There's been a whole bunch of transactions that have happened here in the last little bit, and as Prakesh mentioned, you know, the, the, the muni and the co-op space has been really successful area for us, as well as our, our kind of our core markets, California, Texas, and New England ISO. So I think from our standpoint, we continue to look for good deals that represent opportunities for us to place more software and services into them.
I think that, you know, one of, one of the tenets is that, you know, as Prakesh mentioned, that muni co-op space is really a, is a good area for that.
Got it. Thanks, guys. I'll take the rest offline.
The next question comes from Sean Milligan with Janney. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to go back to Joe's question and just focus a little bit on the supplemental revenue detail. So when you look at the storage, software services revenue, I think it was $5.5 million this quarter, down from $7.7 million last quarter. Prakesh, I think you mentioned, like, higher or higher market participation last quarter, but just wanted to kind of get your thoughts if there was anything else going on there. It's my understanding that there was some SPE, legacy SPE revenue that was running through there, and if you back that out, that kind of implies, like, a 60% decline quarter-over-quarter in the, I guess, the core storage software revenue. So just any thoughts there would be helpful.
Yeah. So, and thanks for the question. So I think there are a couple of things moving through the quarters. One, as we—I think we noted last quarter, we had quite a bit of market participation revenue come through the books that got reflected there. So it looks like a sequential down when it's really, you know, kind of on the basic business, it's really slightly up. Not a lot, but it's slightly up. So I think that's one thing to note. And I think as Prakesh mentioned, I mean, interconnection continues to be an issue in terms of the uptick in what the software revenue is. And across the ISOs in particular, I would say New York, with the VDER program and in Texas, you're really seeing significant slowdowns in how quickly systems can get turned on.
So what you end up happening is you have a hardware sale, but not a, you know, accompanying software sale in a reasonable time period. And so that's really, you know, kind of what's happening on the ground. The good news is, you know, there's no cancellation, so it's pushing software revenue out, and that's really the reflective of the CARR difference. You know, whereas you see CARR continuing to grow, you know, but not necessarily being reflected on the income statement line. That's a direct reflection of what's happening in those markets as it relates to interconnection.
The other thing I'd add, this is Prakesh, is some of the apps we've been rolling out recently focus on this trend generally. So if you look at PowerBidder Pro as an example, or Event Manager, those can go to existing assets, existing customers. So we're not as tied to just interconnections and greenfield development, and that's a big part of our product roadmap generally.
Okay, that's helpful. And then, like, just to build on that and the response there, if you look at CARR, I guess the third quarter of last year, you know, you were $61.5 million, now you're $87.5 million. Just wanted to confirm, one, does CARR include the project services business? And if not, I think if you look at kind of the implied run rate of the storage and solar, you're kind of up $5 million on an annualized basis year-over-year. And just, is there, like, an average time frame to turn on storage business that we should think about, like, in terms of how to model, like, unlocking additional CARR over the next 12-18 months?
And I know you haven't given guidance on how far CARR extends, but is there something you're seeing in the portfolio on how long it takes to turn on storage assets?
Yeah. So a couple points in there. So first, I would reference you back to the investor presentation that we had in September. There's a pretty detailed slide on the various types of projects and the timing that it takes to get them through all the way into interconnection and operation. So just, you know, point that out to you. I think that's available on our website, and you know, to the extent you have got any questions about that, we can pick those up later. So that's the first part. I think the second is that you know, to your point, we are seeing growth in the software and services line item, and CARR does not include... I mean, CARR is software. It's - That's just really a software line item.
It does not include items that would be non-recurring. So, you know, imagine that to be, you know, like I mentioned, software and service contracts that are long term, that generally have, you know, COLA-style adjustments associated with them, that would, you know, typically last anywhere on the solar side, you know, say, 3-5 years. Storage side, 10-20 years.
Okay. Yeah, I guess I'm just kind of looking at the numbers this quarter, like the. It sort of implies that the storage business is, from a software side, like $4 million-$5 million annualized. So most of the software revenues coming from the solar side right now? And again, just trying to kind of understand a little bit better, like, when you start to turn on more storage and we start to see more Athena revenue come through the line items. I know there was a little bit of. I thought there was a little bit of a step change in the first half of this year, but I guess that was more market participation than true underlying recurring revs.
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, as you mentioned, I mean, it's, you know, we are seeing more solar revenue, you know, software revenue today. But I think the, you know, and I think, you know, as we've mentioned, the reason why there is not more storage is really is a relation of, of how long it's been taking to get these, these storage projects interconnected. So, the core aspect is really what's going to happen in the future. At any point in time that, you know, it's always transitioning from contracted into, you know, say, a straight ARR metric. And we've just seen, you know, this year in particular, for, you know, and I think I would point out, you know, spots like New York and in Texas, we've really just had a really hard time getting those projects across the way.
You know, as a result, either, you know, in some cases, interconnection, in some cases, they've been some supply chain issues that have slowed down those individual projects. But yes, as I mentioned, good news is those projects have not gone away, and that CARR is going to turn into, you know, a GAAP revenue item.
Okay, that's helpful. Thanks.
The next question comes from Justin Clare with Roth MKM. Please go ahead.
Yep. Hey, guys, thanks for taking the questions here. So first off, I just wanted to ask about the expected timeline for delivering the first, Modular ESS solution or, or a software-only sale. So in Q3, was there any revenue associated with the Modular ESS or, or software-only sales? And just trying to get a feel for how that, scales up looking forward, from here. So thank you.
Yeah. So I think – and thanks for the question. We should start seeing modular ESS systems, depending on, again, and I hate to, you know, kind of harp on the point, but, you know, as the interconnections get dragged out, we do expect to see the first modular systems be installed in the first half of next year, 2024. You know, we, of course, have been doing software only now for quite some time. You know, the first system actually dates back to 2018, even when we did the portfolio down in Southern California, and we just applied software to that. So those are, those are longer-term efforts that have been continuing for quite some time.
Got it. Okay. All right. And then, so shifting gears, just on the SB Energy agreement, I was wondering if you could share a little bit more detail on how that's structured. Is this, is this something where you have kind of the right of first refusal, to supply the 10 GWh of projects there? Just wondering how that agreement moves through into, you know, contracts and flowing through into your, into your bookings here.
Yeah, this is John. Look, I don't want to go too far into the specifics on the contract, but suffice to say that we will be working very closely on every storage platform and project that they have. And I think what's really exciting is we'll be able to integrate Athena into their digital platform as well. So, you know, more to follow. We'll certainly keep everybody updated on that, but it's a, like I said earlier, a massive and growing pipeline. And as I also stated earlier, I really am excited about the fact that we view this as a model or a template to carry on to other large bulk power developers to further drive our services and software strategy.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. The next question comes from Abhi Sinha with Northland Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, thanks for squeezing me in. Just want to, you know, learn on that SB Energy deal. I know it's a multi-year project, and just wanted to see when exactly do you start getting the revenues and maybe sometime, is it in 2024 even, 2025 even? And second, how do you guys- If you can elaborate, like, how do you guys compare the economics of these big projects? What's the smaller ones that you guys have announced? Like, when I'm comparing these two projects, like this one or something smaller, I'm trying to understand if you are- how profitable are these big ones versus bunch of smaller ones on this.
This is John. On the first part of your question, you know, we're working through the project specifically, and I hate to keep harping on interconnection, but it's going to be predicated on that. There's a chance in 2024, possibly 2025, if it moves around. So it's hard for us to say right now when the first project is going to be operational and interconnected, more importantly. But we'll obviously keep everybody up to speed. And it was hard to understand the second part. I think it was around the economics?
Right. I'm just trying to understand the project economics for this kind of big-sized projects. Trying to see if, you know, how profitable are these versus the smaller projects that you can get, like, you know, much smaller that you guys get, get a hold of.
Hi, this is Prakesh. Yeah, generally, this engagement should deliver higher margin projects than when we're selling hardware into a particular customer, right? This is purely a software and services engagement, so the services can be delivered any time in the project lifecycle. Those are around 30%-50% gross margin, and the software is 80% GM.
Got it. So that's why. So, so that economics does not change even if such a big project comes in there. I mean, you still maintain that kind of profit margin, is what I understand?
That's right. Yeah. The, these are just leveraging our capabilities. It's not, it's not discounted or anything of that sort.
All right. Thank you.
This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Carrington for any closing remarks.
Yes, thanks. I want to thank everyone for joining third quarter earnings call, and we certainly look forward to speaking with you during our fourth quarter earnings call, which will take place in February.
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.