Good morning, welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 earnings conference call. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President, Commercial Finance, FP&A, and Investor Relations.
Thank you, operator. Following prepared remarks today, we look forward to taking your questions. In an effort to address as many questions as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have technical questions on the quarter, please reach out to our IR team. Also, I encourage you to review our earnings release and earnings slides, which are posted to the IR section of our website and provide detailed financial and operational metrics. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecasts. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required by applicable law. The definitions of or reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our earnings release.
Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results we discuss are versus the comparable prior year period and are in U.S. dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, share data references are sourced from Circana in the U.S. and from Beer Canada in Canada, unless otherwise indicated. Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pre-tax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share, which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release. With that, over to you, Rahul.
Thank you, Greg. Before I begin, I want to recognize our team for the focus and commitment they've demonstrated this year. We're operating in dynamic times, and the work happening across our markets gives me confidence in our people and our direction. In the first quarter, we announced Horizon 2030, a strategy designed to strengthen our business and drive long-term value creation. We took action right away. For example, we said we'd leverage M&A to fill portfolio gaps, and we did just that by establishing a position in RTDs. We also said we'd extend our share buyback program, and we executed on that as well because we believe our shares are a compelling investment. While it's early in the year, we navigated a complex external environment and continued to make progress against our strategy. At the same time, the U.S. beer category started the year on better footing.
However, macro uncertainty continued to put pressure on input costs and consumer behavior, especially lower-income consumers. For beer, the number of trips and buyers improved while consumer sentiment declined. In the EMEA and APAC, macro pressures increased over the quarter, driven by geopolitical events, including the conflict in Iran, impacting fuel costs and consumer sentiment. That said, we believe Molson Coors is positioned to navigate this moment and strengthen our business, supported by our strong balance sheet, free cash flow generation, and our portfolio that spans price points, geographies, and consumer locations. Based on what we are seeing today, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance and remain confident in our ability to execute against our priorities. As we move through 2026, we're acting with speed and intent, balancing near-term execution with our goal of long-term growth.
In Q1, we continued to sharpen our portfolio focus, strengthen our commercial model, and move accountability closer to our customers and consumers. While these efforts will take time to show up in our results, we're encouraged by the early progress. Our strategy begins with building strong and scalable brands that matter across beer and beyond beer. Our momentum in bars and restaurants and venues is a great example. Across the on-premise, our top 6 brands all delivered share growth in the quarter based on Nielsen CGA. This includes Miller Lite, Miller High Life, Coors Light, Banquet, Blue Moon, and Peroni, demonstrating our strength in the channel across a range of price points. In Q1, we were among the top BevAl advertisers during March Madness and the exclusive sponsor of ESPN's Bracket Challenge, reflecting our commitment to high-impact occasions.
Looking ahead to the summer, we are also making a single largest media investment in many years, tied to the World Cup, which will include multiple brands across our portfolio. This investment includes in-match media buys, extensive local activation in key markets, podcasts, and influencer partnerships. Let's get into how our core brands performed in Q1. While U.S. brand volume trends improved, our share wasn't where we wanted it to be. We are executing against the actions we outlined in February, including new creative for all the three of our U.S. core brands. Coors Banquet continues to build momentum, and in Q1, it returned to national sports advertising for the first time in five years, an important milestone for a brand with enduring consumer relevance. Miller Lite faced challenges in the quarter, mostly driven by heightened competition in a couple of U.S. regions.
We are working quickly and taking targeted actions, including new ads in English and Spanish for the World Cup and a custom visual identity and activation platform for America's 250th anniversary. Outside the U.S., we're also taking steps to protect and strengthen our core brands. In Canada, Coors Light remains the number one premium light beer and is holding industry share. In the U.K., we reintroduced a fan favorite in Carling Black Label. In Central and Eastern Europe, several of our key brands, including Ožujsko and Jelen, remain number one or number two brands in their home markets despite challenging economic conditions. Moving to the value segment. We've acted quickly while recognizing this is a long-term journey. While Miller High Life's share has been fairly stable and is doing particularly well on-premise, Keystone Light needs some attention, and we're taking action.
Distributor orders for Keystone Apple are pacing ahead of expectations. Even more recently, our decision to reintroduce Keystone Ice was extremely well-received by our network. We're encouraged by the early signals as well as the continued expansion of Miller High Life Light, which is now available in 22 states and performing well. Turning to above-premium beer. We held U.S. industry share in Q1, supported by our priority brands. Peroni continues to gain momentum and saw increased media investment during the Winter Olympics. Blue Moon Non-Alc also continues to perform well, and we recently launched new creative for the Blue Moon franchise. We're encouraged by the sustained on-premise trend improvements for Belgian White while recognizing that a full turnaround will depend on continued focus and consistent execution. In the U.K., we saw some softness in Madrí driven by aggressive competitor pricing.
Importantly, we do not believe this is a brand health issue. We're responding with intention, adjusting our commercial actions to remain competitive while protecting Madrí's long-term strength. Our media investment for Madrí is just now turning on for the year. We continue to build the franchise with innovation like Madrí Limón. Moving to Beyond Beer, we're scaling up here. We're making great progress. This is the fastest-growing part of our portfolio, supported by brands like Fever-Tree, Topo Chico Hard, and as of this month, Monaco Cocktails in the U.S. Fever-Tree delivered strong execution and contributed meaningfully to our top-line performance in this quarter. The brand continues to resonate with distributors, retailers, and consumers, reinforcing our confidence in its long-term potential.
We just launched the brand's first national ad campaign in the U.S. a few weeks ago, which we will be supporting with in-person events and sponsorships this summer, including the PGA Tour. Moving to Topo Chico Hard, which returned to growth in Q1 after our regional focus last year. The turnaround of this brand is a prime example of local execution done right. Looking ahead, we believe Topo Chico Hard will benefit from World Cup media support in both English and Spanish language. We also announced the acquisition of Atomic Brands, maker of Monaco Cocktails, during this quarter. This brand is highly incremental to our portfolio and strengthens our position in convenience stores. Importantly, we believe Monaco fits naturally within our route to market and gives us a platform to compete in RTDs. Integration is now underway, and we are approaching it with rigor.
Monaco adds immediate scale to our portfolio, and it fits into the M&A criteria we outlined in February, as we expect Monaco to contribute about 1% to global NSR on a trailing 12-month basis, while also delivering incremental profitability in year one with 9 months in our portfolio. As part of this deal, we also retained about 80 members of Monaco's sales teams, providing continuity and immediately expanding commercial coverage for our Beyond Beer portfolio. Combined with the team members we added for Non-Alc last year, we are meaningfully expanding our execution muscle at the point of sale. These feet on street should allow us to be more present for our customers, more agile in the marketplace, and more effective across Beyond Beer. To further support our portfolio ambition, we've also continued to rewire how our teams operate with an emphasis on speed and bold actions.
We've implemented changes to our operating model, including clear performance measurement and revised incentive structures, ensuring that our people have both the authority and accountability to drive the business. We've established new routines for our commercial teams that encourage responsive investments across the portfolio rather than siloed brand-level budgets. This approach recognizes that our commercial investments should be dynamic, with clear trade-offs being made to fund the highest impact initiatives in real time. This practice takes local dynamics into account in addition to factors like marketing effectiveness. These changes are designed to drive a strong results-oriented mindset across the organization while also improving the team's speed and execution. We've also taken steps to advance our three-year, $450 million cost savings program, announcing further actions in Q1 to strengthen our cost base.
These include restructuring actions in EMEA and APAC and closing a brewery in the U.K. alongside other operational changes designed to unlock efficiencies in a region facing cost inflation and increasing macro uncertainty. These actions help us manage two periods of higher inflation, while the initiatives we put in place in the Americas last year should also deliver a benefit in 2026 to help offset cost pressures. Tracey will discuss this further, but to summarize, we are operating amid heightened variability and are managing through it thoughtfully. Finally, capital discipline remains central to how we run Molson Coors. We continue to apply a balanced capital allocation approach, investing behind our brands, pursuing M&A to strengthen the portfolio, and returning cash to shareholders. We remain committed to our dividend and share repurchase program, and we continue to view Molson Coors as a compelling long-term investment.
Now as we move into summer, we are clear-eyed about the work required to strengthen our business. This is complex work. We recognize it will take time, and while the external environment remains dynamic, three things hold true. Our direction is clear, our priorities are defined, and our teams are executing with urgency and in depth. Just as importantly, where performance has been more pressured, we are now addressing it with far greater precision. For brands like Miller Lite, we have a much clearer view into where and why and how it's performing by region, by channel or by execution lever, and we are taking targeted actions. This sharper diagnostic approach gives us the confidence that we can stabilize trends and rebuild momentum over time.
The progress we're seeing across many brands, the more targeted ways we are addressing challenges, and the operating changes we've put in place all gives us confidence in our ability to improve portfolio performance and create long-term value. Now, with that, I'll turn it over to Tracey to discuss our financial performance and outlook.
Thank you, Rahul. In the first quarter, on a constant currency basis, consolidated net sales revenue was up 0.1% and underlying pre-tax income was up 16.2%. Underlying earnings per share increased 24%. On an underlying basis, the key quarterly drivers were positively impacted by some phasing considerations, but otherwise were largely in line with our expectations. The U.S. beer industry was down -1.6% based on our internal estimates. Our U.S. volume share was down 60 basis points based on our internal estimates, including relatively better share performance in the on-premise channel compared to the off-premise. U.S. domestic shipments outpaced brand volumes, resulting in a roughly 1 percentage point benefit to America's financial volume in the quarter.
EMEA & APAC brand volume declined 3.4%, primarily driven by ongoing soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape in the U.K. The Midwest premium remained elevated, adding approximately $13 million of year-on-year cost increase to Q1 cost of goods sold. MG&A was down 9.1%, largely due to lacking approximately $13 million in prior year Fever-Tree transition costs, coupled with lower employee-related costs, which more than offset additional investments in technology. Turning to the balance sheet. At quarter end, net debt to underlying EBITDA was 2.5 x. This was an expected increase from year-end 2025, as we normally see a sequential uptick in the first quarter, given lower cash balances.
Earlier this year, we announced that we had increased both the amount and the duration of our stock repurchase program, increasing our total authorization to up to $4 billion through December 31, 2031. In the first quarter, we continued to make progress against this authorization. We paid $94 million in cash dividends and $164 million to repurchase 3.4 million shares in the quarter. Since the plan was announced in October 2023, we have repurchased 14.8% of our Class B shares outstanding. As we previously announced, in the first quarter, we raised our quarterly dividend to $0.48. This was an increase of 2.1% and represented our fifth consecutive year of increases. This clearly demonstrates our intention to sustainably increase our dividend.
Given our share repurchases, we were able to raise the dividend while decreasing absolute dividend cash payments. With that, let's discuss our outlook. As Rahul mentioned, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance. Now, before we get into the details, I'll remind you that the impacts of the global macro environment are multifaceted and difficult to predict. While we have included in our guidance our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results either up or down. Starting with the top line, we expect to ship to consumption in the U.S., but now expect some variability by quarter. After relatively stronger performance in the first quarter, we expect our U.S. shipments to be down 6%-9% in the second quarter, trailing our brand volume trends, with shipments outpacing brand volumes in the second half of the year.
With the addition of Monaco Cocktails, we will recognize nine months of NSR and profit contribution as we integrate the Monaco brand portfolio into our network. This impact is included in our guidance assumptions. All other top-line drivers remain largely unchanged. We continue to expect the full year 2026 U.S. industry volume trend to improve versus the down 5% we experienced in 2025 and expect our balance of year share performance to improve versus the first quarter as we continue to execute our strategy. We continue to expect an annual net price increase of 1%-2% in North America, in line with the average historical range, and expect mixed benefits from premiumization in both business units.
Moving down the P&L, we expect COGS to continue to be negatively impacted by rising commodity costs as Midwest Premium and base aluminum remain elevated versus the prior year. EMEA & APAC in particular are experienced additional uncertainty given current geopolitical issues. On Midwest Premium, we continue to expect elevated costs relative to 2025. For the balance of 2026, we believe we have meaningful hedge coverage, meaning that the impact of the recent rise in prices since February should be a manageable headwind. On phasing, we expect Midwest Premium to be inflationarily over the balance of the year, with the largest increase currently anticipated in Q2. Recall that last year we highlighted that the rising cost of Midwest Premium was a $35 million headwind, with most of the increase realized in half two.
As for MG&A, we continue to expect a significant increase versus 2025 over the balance of the year due to several factors. First, as previously highlighted, we expect incentive compensation expenses to be higher than 2025, with the largest increase expected in the second quarter. We also expect to make additional capability and technology investments to help drive our strategy and modernize our ERP system. As with most acquisitions, we will have higher costs in the first year as we integrate the Monaco business. As an example, we are adding over 80 members to our sales team and expecting to incur additional costs as we market and integrate the brand into our business. To mitigate near-term headwinds, we continue to take deliberate actions in driving our three-year $450 million cost savings program.
Rahul mentioned the actions we put in place in EMEA during the first quarter. We've also taken additional cost savings actions that are designed to optimize our supply chain within the Americas. These actions are expected to add to the savings driven by the implementation of the Americas structure and operating model at the beginning of the year. Lastly, we remain focused on driving capital allocation decisions that we believe deliver long-term shareholder value. We've just added Monaco Cocktails to our portfolio and have again made meaningful progress in executing our share repurchase program. We continue to be a very cash generative business and looking forward, we continue to have optionality in supporting growth initiatives, returning cash to shareholders, and evaluating debt paydown versus refinancing scenarios, while continuing to expect our year-end leverage ratio to remain below two and a half times.
In closing, with a solid start to the year, a strong global brand portfolio, a healthy balance sheet, and strong cash generation, we are confident in our ability to navigate near-term uncertainty while supporting the long-term health of our business and brands. With that, we will take your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question today, please do so now by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind or you feel like your question has already been answered, you can press star followed by two to remove yourself from the queue. The first question today comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Rahul, I was hoping to get your perspective on the U.S. beer industry. I think you mentioned like a 1.6% decline in Q1. Just what are your expectations as we move forward into the summer, especially with the World Cup and America's 250th? Then Tracey, I was hoping you can provide a little bit more color on the reason behind the different shipment versus depletion in Q2 in the back half. What is driving the under-shipment in Q2 and then stronger shipments in the back half? Thank you.
Morning, Filippo. Thank you for the question. you know, if you think about the industry, we spoke about this in February, you know, coming into this year, we did expect 2026 to be better than 2025, right? If you think about just consumer sentiment and obviously the challenges the category had in 2025, the quarter one has turned out to be, I would say, a little bit better than what we expected. you know, all the signs suggest that the balance of the year continues to be strong versus 2025.
You know, your question about how do we see the summer, I mean, we're pretty excited about going into the summer for a couple of reasons, for the category and for our portfolio. We have some big events, you know, in that are occasion-friendly, well, from a beer perspective. Whether that's America's 250th celebration, whether that's the World Cup. We feel pretty good about the balance of the year, in terms of what the category can do compared to 2025. We do need to just keep in mind some of the volatility that still exists, you know, from a consumer perspective, as you probably saw at the end of March, early April. You know, fuel prices, consumer sentiment in the U.S. was pretty low.
You know, again, we remain cautious in terms of and balance, but I definitely see the category being, you know, healthier than what 2025 is. The exciting part in this is for our portfolio, right? I mean, all the commercial tools that we have in getting behind our brands, whether it's in Coors Light with the World Cup or it's Miller Lite with America's 250 or all the other brands. I mean, all of that is coming live right now and getting into the summer. I would say broadly speaking, you know, healthier category this year versus last year, and a lot to get excited about going into the summer. Tracey, do you wanna.
Yes
...touch upon the Q2?
Okay. Yeah, thanks, Rahul. Hello, Filippo. Listen, I think overall, we wanna say that we do expect to ship to consumption in the U.S. for the year, but we do expect some variability in the quarter. As we said, we expect our STW to be down between 6% and 9% in the second quarter, trailing the brand volume trends, but then with shipments outpacing STRs for the second half of the year. Specifically what impacts Q2, just, you know, looking at Q1, we did have some challenges with some one-off events, related to weather and energy supply, et cetera, to our facilities. We had some challenges with upgrades that we were making in our breweries. Then also some challenge with some of our suppliers, particularly glass supply.
We have been working with our suppliers, and we were able to ship ahead of the brand volume in the quarter. There still remains a few pinch points in some of our packages, and our network is feeling this. Our team is focused on this, and we're confident that we'll continue to make progress throughout the quarter. We are communicating consistently with our network. Recall that we're cycling relatively higher inventory levels from Q2 of last year. In addition, for Q2, we do have some planned downtime to make some line upgrades in our Shenandoah Brewery. That's also contributing to lower shipments versus the last year.
Look, importantly, this is a temporary disruption, and we are expecting to benefit from our efficiencies and our qualities with all of these upgrades et cetera, that we're making, you know, in the long term.
Yeah. If I could add something, Tracey, I mean, you know, we have a strong commercial program planned for the summer. We feel good about making sure we can execute against that. As Tracey mentioned, there is maybe a couple of packages that we have a few pinch points on that we're working very closely with our network on. Thank you, Filippo.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS. Peter, please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe picking up on that a little bit. You, you touched on the optimism around the path forward related to Filippo's question. Obviously the world has changed a bit over the last 2 months. I'm just curious if you've seen any shifts in demand or channel dynamics as you exited the quarter or through April. Then just, you know, the guidance for Q2, you know, -6% to -9%, I mean, that's still a relatively wide range for one quarter. Can you maybe help us understand, you know, what it would take to be at the more favorable end of that versus the lower end? Thanks.
Yeah, I think, good morning, Peter. I know we don't talk about in-quarter results, but I think to your point of sentiment, I think that's where the I would say, somewhat caution in the balance of the year thinking, right? There is still some variability, if you think about just what happened in the Middle East and the impact across consumer sentiment at the end of March. You know, fuel prices play an important role in terms of how consumers think in terms of purchasing at convenience. Again, we're going into the summer with you know, a level of confidence because we do have a lot of high you know, beer occasion events planned.
On the other hand, we recognize the macro issues still around the category. You know, I would still mention that, you know, category health this year is probably better than 2025. How that plays out in the next few quarters, I think we'll obviously keep watching. You know, hopefully that answers your first question. I think your question of phasing of Q2, you know, within the six and nine, I mean, we obviously, as Tracey mentioned, our goal is to always ship to consumption. You know, that's what we're gonna keep focused on. It's just we wanted to make sure we were being transparent in terms of on how, you know, second quarter is gonna play out.
You know, our supply chain teams are absolutely working with some of our glass suppliers to make sure we can get, You know, enough product out to our distributors. Again, these are, you know, particular packages in particular geographies. Overall, we feel good about making sure we can meet the moment in the summer.
Thank you. The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities. Chris, please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everybody. In the presentation, you talked about you would expect market shares to improve over the balance of the year relative to the first quarter. Can you just give us a sense of what an improvement means? Does that mean back to share growth? You know, some of the key drivers as you see them. You know, just one, I guess, like, logistical clarification. When you say that, you know, inflation will be the highest in Q2, are you referring to, you know, the increase in COGS per hectoliter should be the highest in Q2 relative to the full year? Thanks for those.
Thank you. I'll take the first two, and Tracey I. Joubert, maybe the inflation one you can. Chris Carey, good morning. You know, you're absolutely right in terms of share. You know, as I said in my prepared remarks, I mean, we have work to do there. It is not where we want it to be. If you break down our portfolio and shares, and even Q1 and going into the balance of the year, you know, I would say we've made progress, obviously, on the flavor side. If you look at Topo Chico and flavor as a whole, I would say we've, you know, got Topo on growth, share growth. Flavor, we're making progress. If you look at our above premium there, we are definitely making good progress in terms of share.
The value segment is where we have had a leaky bucket for a long time, you know, that's why we emphasized on this as part of our new strategy. Frankly, this is where we have more work to do going forward. You know, High Life, I would say, is doing okay, we have to work on Keystone. To your point of, you know, market share balance of the year, you know, value is something we need to show progress on. One of the things we have done is done a few things to make sure we can get Keystone stronger. We are obviously launching Keystone Apple, getting ready for summer. We're bringing back Keystone Ice.
We have a few things in the pipeline that we've announced with our network to make sure we can slow down the leaky bucket in a way for our value part of the portfolio. I would say in our core portfolio, that's where probably we've we have a little bit more work to do on Miller Lite. You know, Banquet and it continues to grow. You know, Coors Light is holding its own in a good way. Miller Lite in a couple of regions in the U.S. in Q1, you know, I would say we have more work to do there. The good part is that we know where the issues are.
We're taking actions, whether it's through campaigns, whether it's through other commercial levers. This is where the local execution matters, right? Because this is not a national concern. It is in the particular geographies where there's competitive action, and our teams are reacting swiftly and strongly. I think from your point of share, that's an important measure for us. Obviously, STR trends in Q1 were better than Q4. You know, I believe we have the right plans in place as we get into summer. You know, I think your question on drivers, I mean, those were the big ones that I would break out for different parts of our portfolio.
And maybe the only other element I'd call out is a lot of the things we have on commercial pressure, and the cyclicality of our business as you know, is summer. You know, the next four, five months, six months become important to win the year, and I think our teams are pretty energized to go after that. Tracey, do you wanna talk about the inflation comment?
Yeah. Yeah. Hi, Chris. Look, you know, we do expect COGS to continue to be negatively impacted by the rising commodity costs that we're seeing. You know, the Midwest premium and base aluminum and our fuel prices have continued to increase versus last year. You know, specific to Q2, we are expecting the Midwest premium to be inflationary again. That largest increase we currently anticipate to be in Q2. If you recall last year, we highlighted that the rising cost of the Midwest premium was about a $35 million headwind, but most of that increase was realized in the second half of the year. Hopefully that helps.
Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Robert, please go ahead.
Hi, this is Seamus Cassidy on for Rob, thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about capital allocation. You know, you repurchased 3.4 million shares in the quarter, which was a big increase year-over-year, while simultaneously, you know, closing Monaco, and you ended the quarter just above your 2.5 x target leverage range. My question is: how do you rank order those priorities from here? Specifically, is buyback pace a lever you pull back on to delever towards the target, or does the 2.5x ceiling kind of flex upward if the right incremental M&A opportunity were to come along? Thanks.
Good morning. Thanks for that. Tracey, you wanna take that one?
Yeah, sure. Hi, Seamus. We do intend by the end of the year that our leverage ratio is back to, you know, the 2.5 x, below 2.5 x. Remember, Q1 is a cash use quarter for us. You know, typically, we do expect the leverage to be a little bit higher. As I say, our intention is to be aligned with the leverage ratio of below 2.5 x by the end of the year. In terms of how we look at capital allocation, I mean, there are 3 main buckets. We use models, you know, to determine highest return for our shareholders in, you know, a particular year.
You know, of those buckets, we focus on continuing to invest behind our business, whether that be behind our brands or with M&A. You know, we announced on the first of April our acquisition of the Monaco Cocktails. You know, that could have been a use of our capital. But also we do intend to continue to return cash to shareholders, and that is one of the capital allocation priorities. Now, returning cash to shareholders is both dividends and share buybacks. From a dividend point of view, the intention is to sustainably increase our dividend, just as we have done for the last five years.
As it relates to share buyback, because we do see our shares as a compelling investment, we did announce in February the extension of the program to the end of December 2031, and also the increase to $4 billion. Typically, you know, we would look at our capital allocation priorities and make sure that we are, you know, getting the best return for our shareholders. That may differ from quarter to quarter, but we are still, you know, focused on, you know, returning cash to shareholders. The one thing this year is we do have a $2.4 billion debt coming due in July. You know, we have approval to refinance somewhere between $1.1 billion-$1.9 billion of that debt.
You know, that's also one of the capital allocation priorities, is to make sure our balance sheet remains strong and we maintain our target debt leverage ratio.
Thanks. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays. Lauren, please go ahead.
Great. Thanks so much. Good morning. I was wanting to talk a little bit about the value brand strategy in the U.S. that you talked about at CAGNY, and particularly on sort of the more localized approach. You discussed it as being kind of analysis phase. Was just, you know, curious kind of where you stand on that. Are you starting to move into implementation mode? Any kind of, you know, key thoughts as you, as you move forward on that front? Because in the prepared remarks, you spoke more about You did speak about Miller, of course, and, like, you know, local issues there.
Yeah.
Really wanted to hone in on the value portfolio. Thanks.
Thank you, Lauren. Good morning to you. No, absolutely. I think it's a great point because, you know, if you think about our focus on value historically, I mean, if you look at our results, I mean, it has been a big leaky bucket, as I call it. Right? We do need to. We are putting all the right plans in place in terms of localizing. If you look at our portfolio in terms of the value brand, we have a pretty large, you know, base of our business in the U.S. on value. It is a very localized portfolio.
I mean, we have two big brands with Miller High Life and Keystone, but then a number of other brands that are very local. First, we want to make sure our big value brands are, you know, in a healthier place. If you think about High Life, you know, on-premise share is pretty good. Then if you look at Nielsen CGA, we grew share with High Life in on-premise. I think you're gonna continue to see us focus on High Life in different ways. I think I talked previously about High Life Light again, expanding into not the entire country, but I think we have that now in about 20-odd states. We are gonna be very localized in terms of making sure that brand, you know, works well.
Keystone is something we have more work to do. You see us innovating around Keystone now with Apple, with also Keystone Ice and bringing that in particular geographies. Again, when we talk about execution being local, that applies to our entire value portfolio. These brands have a lot of loyalty, a lot of following in particular parts of the country. Therefore, how we invest behind these brands, how we execute behind these brands, is very different than how we, you know, think of Coors Light and Miller Lite. You know, it is something which is an important part of our strategy. It is something that probably will take a little more time, just given our historical trends and the plans that we need to put in place.
I would say it's been a positive, you know, part of our portfolio for our distributors and our teams to get behind because it is a big, it's a big part of our business and for our distributors. More to come, Lauren, on this as we make progress, but hopefully gives you a few of the actions and drivers that we're taking to get this part of our portfolio to be a little bit more healthy.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Drew Levine with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Tracey , I wanted to ask if we could double-click on the cost phasing on COGS particularly related to the Midwest Premium. You noted it was $30 million in 1Q, peaks in 2Q. I think the prior commentary from last quarter was that overall it would be a $125 million headwind to the year. One, can you just confirm whether that $125 million number is still good to think about or maybe it's moved higher? Secondarily, if you'd be able to, you know, maybe provide a little bit more context or dimensionalize the incremental headwind in 2Q relative to 1Q.
Rahul, just sort of playing off that, you know, the commentary around input costs moving higher, you are hedged, I think Tracey mentioned, for a good part of 2026. Just thinking about the pricing environment, you know, some of your peers, I think are sort of projecting lower pricing this year around maybe 1%. Maybe you could just talk to Molson Coors or industry willingness to take more pricing in light of the escalating cost pressures. Thank you.
Thank you, Drew. I think, Tracey, you wanna take the first part of it.
Sure. Yeah. Hi, Drew. We did say at CAGNY that, you know, our guidance does assume an elevated Midwest premium, which would impact our pre-tax income growth by about 9-10 percentage points. And that equated to that, you know, minimum of $125 million that would be at the low end of the range that you mentioned. And, you know, as expected, the Midwest premium and the base aluminum remained elevated versus last year. And then as we said in Q1, you know, the Midwest premium added about $30 million of year-over-year cost increase to the cost of goods sold. You know, we have spoken about our extensive hedging program. We've also spoken about how difficult and how expensive it is to hedge the Midwest premium.
We do believe for this year that we have meaningful hedge coverage, meaning that the impact of the recent price increases that we saw in February for us is a manageable headwind. Just in terms of on the phasing side, we do expect the Midwest Premium to be continue to be inflationary over the balance of the year. The largest increase currently anticipated in Q2, as we said, you know, last year, we did speak about, most of the $35 million was coming in the back half of the year. Rahul?
Yeah. I think, you know, generally, Drew, maybe to pick up on a couple of comments there, you know, obviously, we have a lot of focus on making sure our top line and our brands are, you know, executing well in the context of consumer pressure. I think as Tracey said, the teams are managing through a pretty complex input cost context, right? Whether it is Midwest Premium, aluminum, obviously there's phasing of when Midwest Premium went high last year, which was in the second half versus lapping of this year. I think those are the things that's playing out that I would say the teams are trying to manage through that, both with respect to risk mitigation, but also the cost savings initiatives that we put in place.
You know, your question about pricing and how we think about it, I mean, it is still within the 1% and 2% range, you know, the guide that or the, or the guardrails we talked about earlier. You know, but it is a competitive context out there. I think, you know, we're gonna just remain competitive for our brands. We talked about share and wanting to make sure we win with our brands. You know, probably can't comment on what my peers are doing with respect to pricing. I think, if you think about our business, we think about pricing, you know, very, very granularly by brand, by geography. We're gonna continue to stay disciplined on that.
We're gonna obviously still be within the guardrails we've shared, but we wanna be competitive. We wanna be competitive in the context of where the consumer is. The good part in this, just the last comment is, I go back to our portfolio, right? We have a pretty broad portfolio and so, you know, we're excited about the value portfolio that we have because we can meet consumers at different price points. I think we got all your questions there. Thank you, Drew.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America. Bryan, please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. It's Bryan Spillane on for Pete. Appreciate the color you guys gave on how to think about MG&A expense for 2Q. Can you walk us through on how MG&A should trend during the second half of the year? You know, any color on phasing of marketing and sales expense versus general and administrative expenses would be helpful. Thank you.
Good morning, Christian. Tracey, you wanna take that one?
Hi, Bryan Spillane. Look, we do expect MG&A to be a significant increase versus 2025 over the balance of the year. You know, there's a number of factors that go into that. We've spoken about the incentive compensation expenses will be higher than last year, with the largest increase coming in the second quarter. We also expect to make additional capability and technology investments that will help drive our strategy and modernize our ERP system. As Rahul mentioned, with, you know, with any acquisition, we will have a higher cost in the first year as we integrate the Monaco business into our business. As an example, you know, as we said, we're adding over 80 members to our sales team.
We also expect to incur additional costs as we also market and integrate this brand into our business. You know, typically, we spend most of our marketing dollars in the summer selling season and obviously with the World Cup as well as America's 250th, you'll see, you know, continued pressure behind our brands. You know, that we show up on shelf, we show up to our consumers and, you know, drive our great brands into the summer.
Yeah. Tracey again, and just maybe to add a little color to that. Again, I think we said this in either the prepared remarks. I mean, we're making some of our biggest investment in things like live sports, right, in the summer going into the next couple of quarters. Again, strong plans for our brands, showing up in the right occasions, but also doing things differently, right, in terms of how we make sure our brands connect with consumers and with retailers. Thank you, Chris.
Thank you. The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies. Kaumil, please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Good morning. I guess, Rahul, when you think about coming into your first year to think about, you know, taking risks, which us investor analyst types give you a little more freedom to do at the beginning, are there any sort of big risks or big sort of things that you're thinking about, you really wanna sort of go for in this first 12 months? Then Tracey, to dig into the capital allocation question, when you think about or your comments specifically on the stock being very compelling, what metrics are you using in terms of, you know, how you're thinking about the category, the profitability? You know, it's obviously a long-term decision.
What are some of the sort of base metrics that you're thinking about when you think about buying back shares and the value of the business versus its current trading value? Thank you.
Good morning, Kaumil. Thank you for that. Yep. Your question, the first one is a good one in terms of risks. You know, I'd go back and talk a little bit about Horizon 2030 when we laid out our new plan, right? You know, obviously, we have a good business, but we know where our portfolio challenges are, which I know a number of you are obviously familiar with. You know, we are working, I would say in two different contexts, right? One, is making sure our core is healthy and strong, and on the other hand, transforming our portfolio. We are being a lot more aggressive in transforming our portfolio than we have previously, probably, right?
We are gonna use our balance sheet in a, in a stronger way. I think we shared some metrics previously that, you know, are beyond mere agenda. We're getting, you know, up to close to 10% or, we wanna make sure we can make that meaningful, right? We can then have a, a growth profile for this business for the future. I think some of the actions we're taking in terms of how we're executing, you know, the reorientation of, being local, the reorientation of, reallocation of our spend in ways that can meet our consumers, you know, whether it's live sports or being very local, I think is big changes that we are implementing for our organization.
You know, the parts maybe, you know, we haven't spoken a lot about, but, you know, we wanna make sure this category is healthy. When we talk about championing beer, it is something we will continue to find opportunities and ways to keep focused on that. You know, I would probably point you back to the plans we laid out in Horizon 2030. We wanna make sure we can take some of these big swings and the changes we are implementing for our system and for our business internally, but then to get this business back into the medium-term growth commitments that we've made. Now capital allocation is another key element of some of the changes we're making in a big way, right?
I know I'll pass it on to Tracey on the buyback comment. Again, using our balance sheet, you know, investing in our business, but then also making sure we can, you know, recognize and reward our shareholders in that journey. Tracey, you wanna.
Yeah. Kaumil, I mean, I think the important thing is, look, we've got a very strong balance sheet, and because of the strength of our balance sheet, it does give us optionality. When we look at capital allocation and we run, we run it through our models, we do take a long-term view on it. You know, that's why you hear us saying we're gonna invest in our business to drive sustainable long-term growth because it's that sustainable long-term growth that is gonna drive the share price as well. We look at it long term. We look at, you know, what we believe the investments behind our brands, the investments behind M&A, you know, the growth in our business, what that will mean for our share price.
You know, as we're looking at that, obviously, because we have the strong balance sheet, we've got very strong free cash flow. We're able to do both. You know, knowing that our strategy and our plans are all around sustainable growth, growing both the top line and the bottom line.
We believe that our share is a compelling investment. We are able to do both. That's how we look at it.
Yeah. Maybe to your question of just, you know, macro, how we think about the category and, you know, I think we recognize some of the challenges, you know, the category has. Again, we believe, you know, the category is gonna get healthier as it is doing in 2026 versus 2025. There's, as I mentioned, you know, a little responsibility on everybody in the industry to make sure the category is in a stronger place in the future.
Thank you. The next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein. Nadine, please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. Two for me, please. You called out Q1 doing a bit better at the market level in the U.S. I'm curious to hear what you believe were the underlying factors behind this. There's obviously the number, and you called out consumer confidence seeing some deterioration. What do you think are the drivers of that being a little bit better than you expected? The second question, you called out different channel dynamics when it comes to the behaviors of consumers, how that relates to their position and their consumer confidence. Could you expand a little bit on that? Are you seeing, you know, different behaviors by pack size, downgrading, anything else that can give us a flavor of how that U.S. consumer is reacting from the lens of a brewer like yourself? Thank you.
Yeah. Good morning. Th ank you for that question. If you think about Q1, you know, obviously Q1 was lapping a pretty bad quarter last year, right? That's a little bit of a baseline. If you look at consumer trends, I would call it out in two different ways. One is, there is a group of consumers that are, you know, I would say pretty healthy. I mean, that's where you see brands like Peroni, brands like Fever-Tree continue to grow. You do have a consumer cohort that is, I would say, doing okay. And the good part is we need to accelerate our portfolio with that consumer.
If you think about, you know, low-income consumer, et cetera, I mean, this year, trips are up, you know, call it, visits up in terms of stores. Now we can take a look at maybe, you know, call it, size of basket, et cetera. I think there's still some pressure there. In terms of both trips, households, et cetera, purchasing is up. I think that this shows there's a little bit of confidence coming into Q1. Obviously, there has been a little bit of a regional way lens on this. I mean, the West is significantly stronger this year versus last year.
There is some elements I would say that's giving us promise, right, as we think about the category and looking at it. Now, obviously, I balance that with still caution and just as we think about the balance of the year with obviously inflationary headwinds, the gas pricing at the end of the quarter and into April. Broadly, you know, 2026 should be better than 2025. Your question then on channel, I mean, that's an important one for us, you know, because in our category, consumers usually stick to the brands. What we're seeing and this couple of trends have been longer term, right? I mean, the move into singles, the move into large packs, I mean, those packs continue to do much better.
The pressure has been on, I would call small packs and medium packs. Small packs have done slightly better than Q1. There's definitely that element, again, both on the giving us confidence, but recognizing that people are still looking for particular price points, right? Sorry, singles and large pack continue to be the main driver of people making their decisions. Then I do go back to call it value portfolio in terms of, you know, it shows up in different ways, maybe, you know, higher ABV or value portfolio in terms of beer. This is why just, you know, one comment on Monaco, which gives us an excitement is, you know, this business was predominantly a singles business, you know, and it's in convenience.
While we obviously are excited about the brand and the platform it gives us for our business, you know, Tracey talked about the people that are coming along with this business, and it's a great platform for us as we think about not just Monaco, but our overall capability. You know, hopefully it gives you a sense of, I think, the 2 to 3 parts of your question. Thank you for that.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Gerald Pascarelli with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Rahul, I'd like to go back to the World Cup. It's a huge on-premise beer drinking occasion. Your on-premise share trends currently look better than in the off-premise. I think that's what you mentioned in the prepared remarks. That would seem like a clear channel advantage, especially considering some of the challenges in that channel currently being realized from some of your competitors. Maybe if you could provide some color or commentary on just your level of optimism and the tailwind that you think that event could have on your volume trends related to channel, I think would be helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Great. Good morning again. If you think about, you know, one of the things that I know we've spoken about, and I think broadly you've probably heard from the whole industry is, you know, we talk about occasions, right? We talk about, you know, wanting to make sure we can engage with our consumers on occasions. I think that's where we get excited about something like a World Cup, because it gives us a platform and occasions to really engage with our consumers. You know, it is like, you know, Super Bowl for particular cities, right? I mean, that's what's happening, is you got multiple games in different parts of the country and we gotta make sure we are showing up to engage with consumers.
To your point of what's, you know, gets us excited is obviously this plays into our on-premise strengths, but also making sure we can drive new occasions over the summer in bringing people, you know, around our brands. There's an element of people coming into the country for these games. You know, again, we'll see how that plays out. There's an element of again, occasions for travelers coming into the country. To your point of how do we get folks excited about connecting to our brand. If again, I'm gonna make a little bit of a plug here for our new campaign, but if you guys go check out YouTube with, you know, the Coors Light campaign.
You know, it is a way of engaging our consumers in fun ways, but resonating our brands with them. I think your point of it's occasions, it's obviously channel and execution in retail and execution on-premise is important. It is about making sure our brands resonate with our fans. I think excited. You know, we feel very we're going in with the right pressure and, you know, something to get rally around.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher with Rothschild & Co Redburn. Chris, please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Good morning, good afternoon, all. A quick question on the integration of Monaco. I mean, 10 years ago you were buying craft beer brands and integrating them into the business. Can you give us a sense on Monaco about how you're gonna retain these people that are coming across? 'Cause it's a move into a new category. How are you going to ensure that you retain these salespeople? Is the founder locked in? Then on the mechanics of it, I believe its production is still outsourced. Is there scope to integrate that in the near term? Do you see an international opportunity in some of your other markets, particularly the U.K. for these sorts of products? Thanks.
Good morning, Chris. Thank you for that question. I know you asked the question about Monaco and integration, so I'm gonna start the comment with Fever-Tree. Because I wanna make sure, you know, in terms of these brands, the discipline around integration is super important. And I think we've shown that with Fever-Tree is, you know, we focused on making sure we don't drop a case, right? Integrating Fever-Tree, along with their teams, partnering and understanding what these brands stand for is important. You know, again, Monaco, we obviously closed in April. Our goal is to make sure we keep the magic that this brand has. I mean, this is a brand that's been around for a while, right?
This is not something that just grew in the last three to four, two to three years. I mean, this has been around for 10+ years and they have built this business very diligently on the back of a clear proposition with clear channel execution. We wanna make sure we can bring that magic into our business. That's where our focus is on making sure our teams, you know, we bring those learnings in. It is wanting to make sure that we keep the commercial pressure on the brand as we integrate. The founders are involved, but we have 100% of this company and we will execute on this, you know, as per within the Molson Coors umbrella.
To your point of production and other opportunities, I mean, we will obviously look at all of those pieces as we think through integration. For us, job one is always making sure we can keep the commercial pressure and the focus on the business going forward.
Thank you.
Yeah. Sorry, one question.
Our next question.
Sorry, operator. You can keep going. Apologies.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Kirk with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead, Bill.
Thank you for getting my question in. My question's on fuel prices and maybe their impact on consumption. NBWA recently shared some regression analysis work that they had done that showed industry volume trends actually improved when fuel prices went up. I guess the logic would be you leave the on-premise and the two beers there, and you trade it for a six-pack at home, I guess. I was a little surprised by this analysis. I guess the question is: do you see a relationship where higher fuel prices result in a volumes benefit?
Good morning, Bill. Thanks for that question. I'm not exactly sure, you know, on the, on the NBWA analysis, but I think the way we think about this is obviously fuel prices have a couple of correlations with consumers. One is obviously, you know, expendable income and wanting to watch and be careful about how much money goes in there versus. Two is channels, right? I mean, if you think about beer and one of our biggest channels is convenience stores and making sure consumers have that correlation when they are. And, and three is pack size, right? Is how when there is pressure. I think to answer your specific question, I'm not sure I'm gonna say that increased fuel prices increases volume.
I do think it's something we watch very carefully, right? We watch carefully in the context of pack size, you know, singles versus small packs. We watch carefully with respect to again, channel, as I mentioned, and making sure we have the right offering in our channels across the portfolio. Then obviously watch it carefully in the context of consumer sentiment, right? Yeah, I think that's how I would think about it in the context of our business.
Thank you. The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you very much. Rahul, I'd like to double-click on Miller Lite. You know, iconic brand, great liquid, but, you know, it continues to bleed. I know you talked about, you know, some regional, I guess, competitive issues and that you have a plan for that. Can you tell us what you think a reasonable outcome, you know, for that brand is over the next one to two years? I mean, can it get to stable volumes or hold share? I do realize the segment that it's in is challenged.
I guess the bigger question is, you know, apart from what's a reasonable goal and time horizon is can you do this with just kinda tactical moves, or do you need to fundamentally rethink or refresh the brand proposition? Thank you.
Yeah. Rob, I know that's. Good morning to you. There's a lot of questions there, so probably maybe couple of comments. you know, if you think about Miller Lite, you know, obviously, first let me answer your question of what's our goals and long-term ambition. Obviously, we wanna get the brands all back to growth, but the first thing we need to do is make sure we can get our share stable, right? I mean, that's, I would say, the short and medium-term goal that we talked about even in February, to get our big brands shared in a healthier place. If you break Miller Lite's current challenge, I mean, the Great Lakes area continues to be where we need to make sure we are making progress. It is something we are actioning.
You know, your question of the proposition and the thinking around it, we feel good about the campaign and the plans we have right now with Miller Lite, right? This resonates with our consumers. It resonates with our distributors. I think our plans in the summer with America's 250th, and, you know, Miller Lite, that plays both into the taste angle, but also the Americana angle, we feel pretty good about. You know, I do think, you know, we do think that it is something we need to just work through, call it region by region and just make sure we can execute against it. You know, having the right plans to get our shares, I would say in a healthier place.
I think that's the best way to think about our focus on this going forward.
Thank you. That concludes our question and answer period. You may now disconnect.