All right. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference here in New York City. My name is Peter Grom. I'm the U.S. consumer staples analyst here at UBS, and we are very excited to have joining us Rahul Goyal, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer from Molson Coors Beverage Company this morning. Clearly, beverage alcohol has been under pressure from a top and bottom-line perspective over the last several years. Several weeks ago, both Rahul and Tracy outlined the Horizon 2030 strategy as the company looks to navigate this challenging backdrop and return to more consistent growth. In terms of format for today, I have a series of questions that I plan to run through with Rahul and Tracy during the 45 minutes we have here.
Before we start, I'm required to read a legal disclaimer. As a research analyst, I'm required to provide certain disclosures relating to the nature of my own relationship and that of UBS with any company on which I express a view on this call today. These disclosures are available at www.ubs.com/disclosures. Alternatively, please reach out to me, and I can provide them to you after this webcast. With that, why don't we get started? Rahul, Tracey, thank you so much for joining us.
Thanks for having us.
Thanks.
Rahul, I wanted to start with Horizon 2030. You outlined a number of different objectives from a top-line perspective, a profit perspective that's going to allow the company to achieve the medium-term targets in the next several years. I wanna dive more specifically into some of those buckets. I guess my question is what's really different? You talked about investing differently, executing differently. What is changing within the organization, and what drives the confidence that these changes will generate more consistent top and bottom-line growth?
Yeah. No, that's, I would say, a fair question. I'd break it up into a couple of pieces. First is the portfolio, right? What is different? You know, we've always talked about core and cores like Miller Lite, Canadian, et cetera. Probably consistent to what we have said previously. There's a few things in that it's different, right? We've talked about Miller Extra Light, which is again a lower strength ABV. Again, you know, a few different choices, but core, we've talked about, consistently. The value segment is different, right? We've not talked about that previously. I say that in the context of the outside world and also for us as a business.
From the outside world, everybody knows about the K-shaped economy, but there is consumers looking for value products at the right price point, but also with brands that matter, that resonate with them, right? I would say, again, internally, this is a big part of our business. You know, if you just look at the volume we have in just the value segment, we'd be the fourth or fifth largest company, the beer company in the United States. It is that part I would say is different and feels different, right? Again, we're not trying to find a way to grow that category, that part of our portfolio. We just need to make sure we take care of it, and it doesn't decline as fast as it has been.
Above premium beer, I would say pretty consistent the way we have talked about previously. Probably not as different, Peter. And then beyond beer, not different in the context of the ambition around beverage and beyond beer, but probably the levers we're gonna use to deploy capital, right? By our thinking on capital allocation to really scale that. That I would call out in the portfolio. Probably the biggest things that are different for us internally is how we execute, right? Because we are in a category that is every—I mean, everybody knows what the category is. Our commercial execution has to be closest to where our consumers and customers are. What does that mean, right? We obviously are in multiple countries, but beer is sold very locally. When I say locally, I mean state-specific or even city-specific.
That's the changes we are making. We're making sure that our teams are accountable, top and bottom line, as close to the customer as possible. You know, the simplest way I look at it is we spend a bunch of money on marketing. Is the marketing doing what it's supposed to do in those particular markets, right? Is the marketing spend or the people resources we have, delivering the outcomes we want in particular geographies? If you look at our share, and you break it down in different parts of the country, how Miller Lite needs to react and behave is different in the Great Lakes because we are the biggest share platform in the Great Lakes. There we are defending share.
Versus if you look at Miller Lite in the Northeast of this country, there we have to gain share because Miller Lite historically has been a more of the brand that needs to gain share. Execution closest to the customer is what is gonna be different. That means changing how we plan our dollars. That means how we execute on our pricing, promotion, activation, any of those activities, and also the incentives, right? How do we make sure our teams and our organizations are driven with their incentives local, closest to the customer. The other pieces I would call out is obviously our execution on capabilities, right? We wanna make sure we can leverage and improve on the platform we are. We are in the best profit pools of the world.
We have a system, a platform that can deliver and execute in those profit pools brilliantly. How do we make sure our capabilities are top-notch on that? Continue to build out our capabilities investment in that. If you look at the other ones, obviously championing beer and people and culture are important and different. Internally, it feels different as we think about the concept of ownership, making sure we can take risks and execute against it. I would call out, obviously, the cost program was new for us in a way of making sure we are disciplined around the cost, not just to navigate what we are doing today.
You know, historically, we've been a pretty disciplined company around cost, but obviously, we are navigating through a pretty tough external context. Capital allocation is different. If you look at the plan, I mean, those were hopefully the big areas that I would say are different than what our plan was previously.
That's helpful. I guess I want to start with the portfolio and kind of the four different-
Yeah
Buckets that you kind of outlined. Maybe just give us some historical performance within these buckets, where you see the biggest opportunity and I guess ultimately what success would look like. I guess I was gonna start with the core, you know, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet. It's been a unique couple of years for those brands, but curious kind of where you see the biggest opportunity looking at it. Is it really about that local execution that you were just mentioning?
Yeah. If you look at our core, if you just break it up just on core, you know, we obviously gained a lot of share in 2023. In core, we have kept, I think about 70% of that share still. Right? Our core has been healthy and, you know, obviously it moves a little bit quarter by quarter. Overall, Coors Light, Coors Banquet, Miller Lite has been healthy. That's something we got to keep focused on. Obviously it is the biggest part of our portfolio. Coors and Coors Light, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, I would say, has been much more healthier this year. Miller Lite is where we need to do work, and that's where the local execution comes in.
The other things, we will put a little bit of few markers for the long term is things like Miller Extra Light, right? There is a consumer that's looking for lower strength ABV. We have a product, you know, it's long game, but we wanna make sure we can leverage our brands into that. Yes, you know, question around core, it is about the portfolio, but then it is about execution in winning the core. The only other add point I would call out here is obviously, the type of marketing we do and the campaigns and the thinking around the brands, right? You saw that with Coors Banquet, where the brand resonates with consumers because it goes back to what it means.
That's what we leaned in with the new campaign with Christopher Walken, with Miller Lite, right? It is around sociability. It is around beer occasions. It's around bringing people together. I would say the creative and the thinking on the branding, on the marketing is obviously gonna be an important aspect of it too.
Makes sense. I guess one of the pivots, if you will, or something that seems a bit different than what we've observed in the past, is just kind of this focus on value, right? Clearly still a very large segment, but it really hasn't been touched on to the same degree as it has been since you've kind of taken over as CEO. Can you maybe just talk about this pivot?
Yeah.
Is this simply a reaction to the current environment we're in? Or is this really an underappreciated opportunity?
Yeah, no, that's a great point. I would say it's in two ways. First is from the outside in, right? If you look at consumers, they have, you know, an academic debate about K-shaped and, you know, people's economic health, but consumers are looking for value at different price points. They still want brands that matter. They still want brands that resonate with them in their lifestyle, right? I would call out things like High Life, you know, Miller High Life and what it means and how it resonates. There is a consumer that's looking for value. That is definitely an outside-in view. I would say it's obviously been more stark in the last one year, but it is something that is gonna stay with us for a while, right?
Whether we get through this initial sense of volatility, but that K-shape's not going anywhere soon. We got to be making sure we have that proposition. Two, it is absolutely relevant for our business, and it's relevant for our distributors' business, right? If you just quantify that part of our portfolio, if we had nothing else, you know, we'd probably be a pretty large business in the United States. We've got to show it some love, some affection in terms of the brands. It doesn't need the same way that we need to do it for Coors Light and Miller Lite, right? This brand and this part of our portfolio is local. Keystone is stronger in particular states. High Life is stronger in particular states. Milwaukee's Best, Steel Reserve, you know, Hamm's.
I mean, there's such a great set of brands we have in this part of the portfolio that are very local, that need different type of actions. And our goal is not to find a way to grow it. That's not what I've laid out as an ambition, right? We just got to slow the decline, because that has to be. It's such a big part of our business. We got to slow the decline, make sure we can meet the consumers where they need, and then it adds to the whole story for our business.
Makes sense. Then maybe taking the other side of it, premiumization has been ongoing in the industry for some time. It's part of the strategy of Molson Coors. Can you just give us a sense for how some of the key brands in this segment are performing relative to your expectations? What does success look like here several years from now? I guess in order to achieve your long-term aspirations, is that possible with the brand portfolio you have today?
Yeah. Thank you, Peter. I think that was more of a challenge than a question when you say, is it possible. If you look at our above premium portfolio, I mean, we are, I would say, slightly under-indexed in the U.S., but if you look at our progress over the last few years, you know, we have made progress, right? We've grown our portfolio total company about five percentage points in terms of above premium in the last four or five years. I would break up the premiumization initiative for us in two buckets. One is beer and one is beyond beer. In beer, I would say in places like Canada, in U.K., we've done a decent job, right?
Our portfolio is 40%+ above premium or pre-premiumized on the back of things like Madrí, on the back of things like Heineken in Canada, Madrí in Canada. I think as a portfolio, we've done a good job there. U.S., we are under-indexed. In the U.S., historically, we've had only Blue Moon as the big brand that we leaned in, and now you have Peroni with onshoring of Peroni. It definitely gives us something to work on, right? Peroni is growing consistently. We control the supply chain now, so it allows us to, you know, invest in it without any other sort of incumbent issues. I would say beer is definitely something we'll lean on, and then it is beyond beer, right?
In beyond beer, it is around flavors, which is a volatile category, and it is in the pure non-alc. You know, our goal is to obviously continue the acceleration of our beyond above beer above our premiumization, above premium portfolio. But it's gonna be a mix of beer and beyond beer. Right? I mean, I think I shared these numbers. I mean, we're getting. In beyond beer, we're getting up to 10%. And so between that and beer, we have to be meaningful, right? To your point of the math, if you just keep beer, core and value, unless the above premium and the premiumization is not big enough and meaningful enough, the math doesn't work. I think you're gonna see us continually lean into that.
Yeah. Maybe just to build on beyond beer, we've seen some nice pockets of growth across the industry, but it's been pretty volatile.
Yeah.
Right? Can you maybe just elaborate more on the strategy here? How do you stay nimble and make sure you're not investing in categories that will be short-lived, if you will? I guess, where do you see the biggest opportunity for Molson Coors as it relates to beyond beer?
Yeah. No, if you look at beyond beer, I would break it up into, I think, you know, the reference to flavor and pure non-alc. You know, flavor, it is a volatile category. You know, we got it right with a couple of our brands initially. We took Topo Chico, and we scaled it dramatically big just as a seltzer. We took Simply, and we scaled it dramatically big as a flavored ABV flavored beverage. Things moved. The world moved, and consumers moved. You know, Topo Chico has been in decline. To your point of this is where agility comes in, right?
I would say Topo Chico is where I would point in the last 3-6 months where we have been able to pivot. We pivoted from just being a seltzer to a little bit of a higher flavor beverage. We have a high ABV innovation. We have innovation in packaging, and you're starting to see the brand obviously grow share but also volume in a few months. It is definitely something that you can do, but it is a category that is volatile. The same thing with, you know, we have work to do on Simply Spiked, and we're doing that. We have a new product now with a 12% ABV in a smaller can, not a big can, smaller can.
You know, making sure that we can pivot our portfolio to meet where the consumer is, especially in the flavor side. We have some gaps. I mean, the consumer has moved, and they're looking for spirits and RTDs, and we need to make sure we have the right portfolio in there, which is a gap for us. Flavors, I think, is gonna be volatile. In beyond beer, just non-alc, we gotta be disciplined and execute the places where we can win. You know, I obviously will talk about Fever-Tree because it is a space where it plays close to alcohol. We know how to execute. It is something that plays in occasions, in on-premise that is close to alcohol, so definitely we can execute.
I'll call out even energy, right? It is energy, historically, beer companies or beer distribution has been able to build a brand. We haven't been able to do that in ZOA, and we have more work to do in ZOA, but it is a category that we can win in. It is a category that we can, we have ability to win in. You'll see us stay disciplined around in non-alc but in places where we can win, right? Because it is too broad, and we gotta focus on places where we have the capabilities to win.
Makes sense. Why don't we stick with the sales outlook, but just shift the discussion to the broader category, what's happened over the last 12 months, and how you kinda see it evolving from here. Clearly, 2025 was a historically challenging year for beer, for beverage alcohol in general. A lot of debate on cyclical versus structural. As you look back, have you been able to identify or isolate, you know, why trends were so challenged last year?
Yeah. I would break it down into a couple of pieces. So, you know, again, things that I know a lot of people have spoken about. I mean, there was a big cohort of the consumer, the Hispanic consumer, that had a different context and in a way were making different decisions on their purchasing. I would say that is one. Two was just the economic uncertainty, right? I mean, I would broadly put it in those two buckets, of if you wanna diagnose what 2025 was. You know, and that played out differently in different parts of the portfolio, right?
It played out differently on how consumers were engaging with alcohol, whether they were engaging in on-premise versus off-premise, or it was, you know, just decisions they were making on how much money they spend on alcohol as a whole. You know, I think as probably, you know, Peter, we shared in previously is, you know, we see that volatility to continue for a little bit, right? I mean, we don't think everything's gonna be back to the negative ones and twos anytime soon. I think that volatility exists in the category. You're seeing how that plays out in January and February. I mean, you know, one month is good, one month is bad. It's something we just have to watch.
I go back to for us and our teams, it's about where can we execute, right? We have enough things to focus on on our side. On core, we have things to fix. On value, we have opportunities in above premium. While we'll obviously watch the category carefully, manage through it, we got enough things to focus on just within our own house.
Makes sense. I guess on that point, right, so January was good. It sounds like February has kind of been, you know, returned to that. Kind of curious, you know, maybe what you're actually seeing. It doesn't feel like the cyclical challenges are shifting. It doesn't feel like the structural headwinds are down there. Just, you know, maybe some more comment just in terms of why you think there's been such volatility in January and February, and I guess any notable differences you're seeing on versus off-premise.
I think the first one, I mean, I would generally say a little bit more optimistic this year than last year in terms of category, right? I mean, January, February, if you look at it, a lot of weather, a lot of storms, a lot of shutdowns in particular parts of the country. I think generally we're feeling, you know, as a company, as a team, a little bit more optimistic coming into this year. If you look at the things that are gonna happen in the country this year, I mean, there's big events that, you know, we're all pretty excited about. Obviously, we have the Olympics, then we get into March Madness, but then we have the FIFA World Cup. We have America's 250th celebration.
I think generally, you know, there's a sense of optimism going into the summer, to make sure we are leaning in the right way. I think that's the category. What was your second part of the question?
No, just no. Have you seen any differences, you know, year to date on versus off?
Oh, on and off. Yeah. On and off, I think if you look at on and off, I mean, we haven't seen any big shift between on and off. I mean, the percentage split between on and off has been pretty consistent. I think what has been good is our performance on-premise has been much better than the off-premise, right? Our share gains in on-premise. That gives us confidence that our brands are resonating well with consumers. We can obviously engage them in a different way. We can build the brands in the right way. In terms of big shifts between on and off, haven't seen anything dramatic, this year.
Okay. Tracy, ask you a question here. Your guidance for 2026, you know, flat constant currency NSR ±1%, you know, we just touched on, you know, you're a little bit more optimistic on kind of the category outlook versus the -5% we saw in 2025. Can you maybe outline specifically what you're assuming from a category perspective and the guidance, how you arrived at that target? Just given the volatility we've been talking about, did you include any additional flexibility versus maybe what you would have done in a normal year?
Yeah. What we have said is we do expect the category to improve, you know, improve from the down 5%. We haven't given specific guidance 'cause it is very volatile, but we do expect it to improve. As we look at, you know, our medium-term guidance, this year, 2026, we've spoken about a couple of the headwinds, the things that we're cycling. You know, Midwest Premium, incentive comp, which, you know, didn't pay out last year. You know, if you take those two things into account, we will sort of end up the bottom line sort of flattish. In terms of what are we looking at? We're not expecting big volatility in either up or down. We haven't built that in from a commodities point of view.
We have various plans depending on how the scenarios play out. You know, obviously no one was expecting, or at least we weren't expecting, you know, wars to break out. You know, we don't know what the impact of the gas price is gonna be. We know that it will have some impact on the consumer, as we've seen in the past, and, you know, impact on our consumers. We've got various scenarios that we're planning to. In order to mitigate some of this volatility, we are putting in plans in case, like we've got a cost savings program, which we've announced. It's around $450 million of savings over the next three years. That's gonna come from all parts of our P&L.
You know, from a COGS point of view, we are looking at. We've got a number of projects actually that we can put in place, which is gonna be driven by procurement. It's gonna be driven by some capital investments that we're making around our capabilities. In our breweries, we've got a program called World Class Supply Chain, which is gonna drive efficiencies and effectiveness. At the end of 2025, we announced an organizational restructuring, which we're gonna see some of that flow through in the Americas. In EMEA & APAC, we've got plans to grow or expand our margins as well.
There is a lot of volatility that we're seeing at the moment, but we've got various plans that we're laying out depending on how scenarios play, you know, play out.
Makes sense. Then, Rahul, I wanted to pivot back. You mentioned the World Cup, the 250th anniversary of the U.S., and ultimately, you know, some optimism around what that could bring. Can you maybe just talk about what you expect, you know, as it relates to those events and whether, you know, have you included any sort of benefit in your guidance?
Yeah. I mean, we've tried to. I know some of the questions was, you know, how do you get from the -5% to flat, et cetera. I mean, Tracy talked about some of the lapping, et cetera. You know, we wanna make sure our brands show up in the right way in this, right? So while for the World Cup, we may not have the sponsorship, I mean, there's a lot of things we can do around those events, around in the specific cities, right? Or how we show up with our brands on-premise, how we show up around the city and where these games are held. I think we're pretty excited about that. We're gonna be big in terms of TV, also with Coors Light with the World Cup.
Again, these are occasions that people wanna use to come together, right? I mean, the simple thing we say internally is you got eight Super Bowls happening in Houston, right? Sure, it's happening just in Houston or in Texas or in Kansas City or Atlanta, but it is eight events. That you have the opportunity for people that probably are traveling into the country, people are coming together for that particular event. Our brands have that opportunity to show up in a smart way. That's what I think gives us a little bit of. Again, these occasions are important because, okay, you know, we've talked about occasions. This is not beer and the category. It's not about people not drinking. It's not about people not engaging with beer.
It is the occasions that was the tricky part. The exciting part this year is we have the opportunity to create those occasions. We're not creating it on our own. There are occasions where we are facilitating, if that makes sense.
That does. Maybe to round out the top line discussion and going back to CAGNY, you reiterated your medium-term targets of low single-digit revenue growth. Now, I get that does include some benefit from M&A, which I wanna get to. You know, what's your level of confidence in delivering on that target if category growth is structurally lower?
Yeah. I think if you look at what you know I said in that you know we've been pretty good in terms of creating shareholder value by being disciplined on the bottom line and over the last five years, right? Our TSR, et cetera. What we as a management team have said that we know we've got to get our business back into that medium-term algorithm to drive the next chapter for growth, next chapter of shareholder value. There we know we have the portfolio we need, right? The fact that we talked about core and value, we know what the game plan there is, right? Core is about you know share and managing share and gaining share, and value is just protecting. Those are big parts of our portfolio.
Those are under pressure from a category headwind perspective. It does come down to execution in those parts of the category. It does come down to how we make sure our resources are being deployed in the field, how we make sure our marketing dollars are delivering the outcomes we want. In our premium or premiumization, this is all new for us, right? We just inherently under index. This is for us is all new stuff. This is absolute new dollars, right? It's not just about share in beer, and it's just not about, you know, new categories. This is where we can use the balance sheet in a way to enable us to get some scale.
That combination of both of these things gives us confidence that we can get this business back into the low single-digit top line growth, right? On the bottom line, as Tracey said, it is a little bit of a volatile external context. We wanna get through that phase with discipline. You know, we talked about the cost program, but even since February when we were in Florida, you know, the Europe business, we've announced all of that publicly now, right? I mean, all the cost savings programs, we're chasing that stuff because we wanna make sure we're pretty disciplined about how we manage this business through this period of challenge.
Makes sense. Tracey, I wanna pivot to profitability for a second, and you alluded to the Midwest Premium. Can you maybe just remind us what's embedded in the guidance as it relates to that, how you see this playing out through the recent events that you were alluding to impact that trajectory? I guess one of the bigger questions I've gotten from folks is why it's having such an outsized impact on your business in 2026 relative to what we've heard from other CPG, other beer companies that have also outsized can exposure. Is it simply hedging or is there another factor driving that?
Yeah. Look, in terms of what's built into the guidance, we do hedge all commodities. In you know the first 12 months, we've got much higher hedges in place, and then it's you know a little bit lower in the second year and then even lower in the third year. Specifically as it relates to the Midwest Premium, you know, we have spoken about how difficult it is to hedge and how expensive it is to hedge. You know, one of the stats that we have from insights that we can get, for example, you know, trades that are exchange trades, you know, that we have line of sight to. For every 1,000 aluminum trades, there's 3 Midwest Premium trades. That just shows you how difficult it is to hedge.
You know, even when the price drops a little bit and you try and get the hedge in, there's no counterparty to hedge that. So it's difficult, it's expensive. Having said that, though, you know, we do hedge it, and we have got hedges in place. Just this year, again, the Midwest Premium has gone up to another 20%. You know, not even people talk about gold, and not even gold has gone up by over 300% in the last 12 months. So the Midwest Premium is a challenge. You know, we are working on a number of things to try and understand that and try and give transparency, et cetera.
You know, in terms of confidence in everything else, I mean, we've got a lot of plans in place. You know, as I say, we've planned multiple scenarios, so we're doing everything we can to mitigate. In terms of what other people are seeing, look, we just feel that this is a big part of our costs, and so we were very transparent, and we have been for a couple of years. I mean, you've heard us speak about the Midwest Premium for a number of years now. It depends on who else you're talking to. They may have different geography, you know, where they are not paying Midwest Premium. I mean, Midwest Premium is specific to the Americas.
You know, if you've got a bigger footprint, you know, in Europe, et cetera, you're not paying Midwest Premium. You know, it also depends on your mix. You know, how much is in glass, how much is in cans. We have seen over a number of years, consumers moving to cans. For us, you know, we felt it was necessary to call it out as we have been doing for the last couple of years, because it is a big part, it's a big driver of our COGS. I mean, other than that, I can't speak to-
Yeah. No
you know, other companies.
I mean, if you look at our business, I mean, our own business, right? I mean, this is American phenomenon. It's a U.S. phenomenon. We're not seeing a Midwest Premium implication in Europe. We're not seeing it in Canada. This is a U.S. phenomenon. I think to your point of, you know, obviously, we can't comment on other companies' stuff, but if based on geography, based on, you know, landscape and product portfolio mix, this is a real issue.
Okay. No, that makes sense. I guess, you know, Tracey, building on that a little bit, but just sticking with the profit outlook, another big headwind was the reset of the incentive comp. I guess there's just a lot of moving pieces in the base year, right? You're cycling integration, the one-time expense of Fever-Tree. Just in the context of, you know, the full year guidance of pre-tax income being down 15%-18%, how should investors think about the phasing of that? Is it more pronounced in the first half just because that's when the inflation is building in, or is it more balanced?
Yeah. Q1, we had the Fever-Tree one-time payment around $32 million last year. You know, we'll be cycling that. In terms of if we look at commodities in the Midwest Premium, we really saw the Midwest Premium elevated from Q3 and Q4. You know, we did say that the Midwest Premium had a $35 million impact on us last year. About $20 million of that was just in Q4. You know, much more elevated in the back half of the year. In terms of the incentive program, which, you know, we did say was one of the headwinds that we're facing this year. We saw most of that. We started to adjust that Q2, Q3, and then into Q4.
A lot of you know what we will be cycling is happening in the second half of the year. The big things like Midwest Premium, like incentives, et cetera.
Okay. Maybe to round out the discussion on 2026, I mean, even if I were to back out the Midwest Premium incentive comp, the outlook for flat, right, is still nicely below the company's long-term algorithm. I get sales are slightly slow as well. What's driving the weaker performance in 2026 even after backing out those dynamics, especially, I know we'll get to this, just considering some of the cost savings you've touched on.
Look, we're looking at 2026 as sort of the base year, and then we're gonna grow from there. You know, we've spoken a little bit about the industry. We're expecting it to improve but not get back to this year, to the historical levels of, you know, down 2%, down 3%, etc. That's one. You know, we did completely get out of the contract brewing arrangement, so we still had some contract brewing last year, which, again, was very low margin, but still added, you know, it was a benefit to deleverage, etc. You know, now we'll have. It was profitable, but not very profitable. You know, we're cycling that. Those are some of the challenges that we're facing.
Importantly, we're gonna invest behind our business. We're gonna invest behind our brands. We have said that we expect to increase our marketing spend this year. Also we're gonna invest behind capabilities and technology. That's gonna help not just, you know, drive insights and analytics and things like that, but it's gonna drive cost savings and efficiencies and be part of this $450 million cost savings program that we've announced. There's still investment going into our business, which is, you know, part of the bottom line.
Makes sense. I guess what gives you confidence that you can reaccelerate growth to that mid-single-digit range? Is it those, the benefits from those investments you're alluding to? Is it the category maybe getting less edge? You know, help us understand how we go from where we are this year to kinda getting back to on algorithm.
Yeah. Certainly, I think there's a number of things. The category, as we said, you know, we expect that to improve. You know, we have top-line plans, so we've got the pricing that we normally talk about, the 1%-2%. We have got the mix. You know, we are gonna be focusing a lot more on the economy, the value side, but we're also gonna continue to premiumize. Brands like Fever-Tree, which is other than our full-strength spirits, I mean, Fever-Tree is the highest NSR per hectoliter as a brand. So we're gonna have, you know, full year of that. You know, we're gonna continue. That still has a lot of awareness and a lot of distribution to go.
We, you know, we're gonna focus in on the portfolio, and then, you know, these cost savings programs, et cetera, is gonna help deliver the bottom line.
Okay. Maybe pivoting to the cost savings as part of Horizon 2030. You announced $450 million of cost savings around supply chain, commercial function areas, EMEA & APAC, which you alluded to. Can you maybe just elaborate on the target? Where do you see the biggest opportunities across these buckets? Is it equally phased or should we expect savings to ramp into 2027 and 2028? You know, sorry for the classic sell side five-part question, but just the broader philosophy around reinvestment versus letting these savings flow to the bottom line.
Yeah. Certainly, well, if you look at our guidance for this year, I mean, a lot of the savings is gonna go into investments and to help mitigate some of the inflation that we're seeing, you know, that we spoke about from a Midwest Premium. I think where we get the biggest benefit is around the COGS line. So with the plans that we've got around procurement, the plans that we've got around World Class Supply Chain in our breweries, you know, we're gonna see that. Now, that doesn't all happen this year, because we do need to invest in the capabilities to be able to generate the cost savings.
This year is the sort of foundational year, and then, you know, as we look at building off this year, that's when we're gonna start seeing the benefits come through from some of these investments that we're making in 2026.
Yeah. I think, Peter, I mean, if you look at your question of, you know, the intent of pace, right? I mean, some of these things we started immediately last quarter, right? When we started seeing some of the headwinds and Midwest Premium, et cetera. I mean, all the Americas work that we did in Q4 plays out in 2026. We just announced, even since mid-February, all the changes in our European business, right, with the reduction, with the shutting down some facilities. You know, I think we recognize, you know, when I talk about we are in this moment of volatility, right? We are leaning in, being very disciplined about that. Now, we also need to make sure that we are setting the business up to get to the medium-term growth algorithm, right?
In terms of cost savings, execution of that, the stuff which we kicked off in the Americas, the stuff we kicked off in Europe in the last few weeks, is to get us all into that medium-term algorithm as quickly as we can.
Great. That makes a ton of sense. Rahul, ever since you've taken over, M&A has become a much bigger topic of discussion. And even looking at some of your capital allocation priorities that you outlined at CAGNY, you know, around investing in the business. Now, that includes M&A. I think specifically you're targeting deals that, you know, would help top-line growth by, you know, call it 1-2 points per year. Can you maybe just talk about the strategic and financial criteria for M&A, categories that are most attractive to Molson Coors, and then ultimately, just given where leverage is today, would you be willing to do something on the larger side?
Sure. I think I'll take a few, and then Tracey can help me. If you think about the portfolio, right? Again, I go back to your four-bucket portfolio conversation. I mean, the first two in beer we have to do and execute and take care of it, right? When we talk about M&A, this is finding the gaps in our portfolio that we need to fill. It's probably in the Beyond Beer or maybe above premium beer space, right? Those are the areas we got to go solve that. In beer, we have a big portfolio, so obviously we will look at it, but we want to make sure we're being smart about beer brands that fill some gaps that we may not have. Beyond Beer is probably where we do need to look at it.
In Beyond Beer, I go back to non-alc spaces where or flavor spaces where we have the ability to win, right? Once you start thinking about those categories, the funnel becomes very small, right? It becomes small in terms of the categories you want to work on. Your second part of the question is, you know, what's the criteria? We've been very clear, right? We're not trying to chase top-line growth just for the sake of top-line growth. We want brands and businesses that have good top and bottom line discipline, and for two reasons. One, because it is in spaces that is volatile. You know, you can catch a brand in the peak, and then for a couple of years, you're just dealing with how to manage it.
We want to make sure we're being disciplined about both top and bottom line. Right. I think to your point of funnel of the type of categories we want to be in is narrow because that's where we can execute, we can deliver, integrate it well. Criteria of figuring out what quality of businesses we want to look at. We want to be disciplined in top and bottom line. It is a balancing act of our leverage ratio. Tracey, do you want to take that one?
Yeah. You know, our medium long-term targets for leverage has been to be below 2.5x, and we have achieved that. We currently operating under the 2.5x. We feel that that's the sweet spot for us. You know, we like our investment grade rating, you know, and we've done a really good job with the balance sheet. You know, our debt is in pretty good shape. You know, the cost of our debt is in good shape. You know, that was one of the focus areas early on, you know, to get our balance sheet strong. Now we've got optionality.
You know, when we talk about M&A, it can be slightly bigger than maybe what we were talking about, you know, a couple of years ago. The other part of, you know, the capital allocation, which is really important, is to continue to return cash to our shareholders. At CAGNY, we did announce an extension and a larger share buyback program, which is now in total is $4 billion up to the end of 2031. Also, you know, it was really important to us to be able to continue to increase our dividends, you know, and to keep that dividend sustainable. With the strength of our balance sheet and with the significant amount of free cash flow that we do generate, we do have options.
You know, when Rahul talks about M&A, yes, I mean, that's gonna be, you know, a focus and something that's bigger than maybe what we've spoken about before.
Yeah. Again, goes back to the objective, right? Why do we believe this is the right algorithm to get our business back? It is to get back to the medium-term growth algorithm. Tracey said it's to give shareholders value during that journey with the buyback. Recognize we got to get our portfolio in a place where we can deliver consistent top and bottom line growth. I think this optionality is what I would say is the best word, right? We've created optionality and to execute against whatever comes at us.
Makes sense. Tracey, one follow-up, I guess just, you know, just given how quickly you leaned into buybacks with the original authorization, how does this shift in focus around M&A while maintaining the leverage impact the buyback philosophy from here, if at all?
I mean, look, we took that into account, you know, when we gave our medium-term guidance. Again, we generated significant amount of free cash flow, and so we are able to do both. You know, we feel that our shares are a compelling investment. You know, that's why we increased and extended the share buyback program because we do think it's a good investment, and we'll continue with the cash that we've got. It doesn't mean that we're not gonna do M&A or, you know, we can't do one if we do the other.
Okay. Maybe to close it out, a question for both of you. Obviously, it's been a challenging several years for the industry, for Molson Coors. As you look out over the next 12 months, maybe the next several years, what metrics are you gonna be focused on to assess whether the strategy is working? I guess if we were to do this, you know, fireside chat next year or years from now, what does success look like?
Yeah. For me, I mean, it's hitting our guidance. You know, it's been able to deliver that and deliver on the commitments around, you know, the free cash flow, the share buybacks, the dividends, but then also making sure that we are investing in the business to grow the top line. That, that'll be meeting that guidance will be important for me.
Yeah, I would say it starts with obviously the medium-term guidance we've laid out, Peter. We gotta get our business back into that routine and that rhythm, right? Low, mid, and high from an EPS perspective. If you go break that down further, you know, what are we looking at? How are we measuring ourselves internally and just checking that we're moving, right? Share becomes an important element, right? The category is volatile. While we obviously look at absolute, you know, volume and NSR, share is a key component. Two becomes portfolio transformation. Are we on this journey of portfolio transformation, right? A year from now, two years from now, have we moved the needle in our premiumization?
Have we moved the needle and beyond the, you know, cost savings, the things we've announced, are we delivering on that? Is it touching the margin factor? Back to your question of how much are you reinvesting, how much you're dropping to the bottom line. Well, all of that needs to show up in margin, right? That becomes a key important criteria. I think, you know, those become the key elements. Obviously, the buyback and dividend is the journey we are with our shareholders. If you look at our dividend, I mean, we did increase it, but we did it in a way to create flexibility for ourselves. I would say those are the
Probably the metrics below the mid-guidance that, you know, I think we can judge ourselves and then, you know, wanna continue that dialogue with the investment community.
Great. Well, we are at time. Rahul, Tracey.
Thanks, Peter.
On behalf of UBS, everyone in the room, those listening online, thank you so much for being here today.
Thank you.
Super helpful as always, and we wish you nothing but the best of luck moving forward.
Thanks, Peter.