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Earnings Call: Q2 2019

Aug 22, 2018

John Mulligan
COO, Target

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our second quarter 2018 earnings conference call. On the line with me today are Brian Cornell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, John Mulligan, Chief Operating Officer, Mark Tritton, Chief Merchandising Officer, and Cathy Smith, Chief Financial Officer. In a few moments, Brian, John, Mark, and Cathy will provide their perspective on our second quarter performance, outlook for the full year, and progress on our long-term strategic initiatives. Following their remarks, we'll open the phone lines for a question and answer session. As a reminder, we're joined on this conference call by investors and others who are listening to our comments via webcast. Following the call, Cathy and I will be available to answer your follow-up questions.

As a reminder, any forward-looking statements that we make this morning are subject to risks and uncertainties, the most important of which are described in our SEC filings. Also in these remarks, we refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS. Reconciliations of all non-GAAP numbers to the most directly comparable GAAP number are included in this morning's press release, which is posted on our investor relations website. With that, I'll turn it over to Brian for his thoughts on our second quarter performance and our outlook for the rest of the year and beyond. Brian?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We are really pleased with the second quarter financial results. Comparable sales grew 6.5% in the quarter, representing Target's strongest quarterly comp performance since 2005. This increase was driven by traffic growth of more than 6%, an unprecedented number, and by far, the strongest performance since we began reporting this metric in 2008. Total sales were up 7% from a year ago, reflecting half a point of growth from our new and non-mature stores. Store comparable sales increased nearly 5%, and digital sales grew more than 40% in the second quarter. As guests continue to respond to a growing menu of convenient fulfillment options, newness throughout our merchandising categories, freshly remodeled stores, and a higher level of service across the chain.

On top of the strong digital sales trend we've been seeing for many years, we saw a meaningful incremental lift from our One-Day Sale in July, which came in far ahead of expectations. With very strong traffic, both in store and online, we saw accelerating comp sales trends in all five of our core merchandising categories. While there are healthy increases across the board, comp growth in our home category was amazingly strong, up nearly 10%. Hard lines also saw high single-digit comp growth, driven by strength in both toys and electronics. With stronger than expected sales, our business delivered stronger than expected profitability. Our second quarter adjusted EPS of $1.47 was near the high end of the guidance range of $1.30-$1.50.

This represents about 20% growth compared with a year ago, despite the fact that our results continue to reflect significant investments in both capital and operating income to position Target for long-term success. These investments include our plan to perform wall-to-wall remodels of approximately 1,000 stores over a three-year period. Our work to completely transform Target's supply chain, placing our stores at the center of a modern network designed to deliver an unmatched combination of convenient fulfillment options. Opening new small format stores across the country, allowing us to reach guests we couldn't serve with our larger formats. Last year's investment to ensure we're Priced Right Daily in support of the pay less side of our brand promise. Our work to deliver a constant drumbeat of new and exciting merchandise throughout our owned and exclusive brand portfolio.

The rollout of new convenient digital capabilities that make it easier and more inspiring for our guests to shop, save, and use their RedCard. Most importantly, investments in hours, wages, and training for our team members. These investments enable our team to deliver higher levels of service and productivity, and our guests are responding to the change. We embarked on this investment plan at the beginning of 2017, and our progress so far has been well ahead of our original expectations. There's no doubt that, like others, we're currently benefiting from a very strong consumer environment, perhaps the strongest I've seen in my career. Market share data demonstrates that our current results are benefiting from more than just the environment, as we're seeing broad market share gains across categories we sell.

The question we continue to hear from many of you is whether we can separately measure the benefit of each of these investments we're making. The honest answer is, we can't evaluate each one of them in isolation. Instead, it's the collective benefit of all of these initiatives that is keeping Target more top of mind with guests, enticing them to visit our stores and our site more often. Before I turn to our outlook for the rest of the year and beyond, let me comment briefly on the topic of tariffs. Like many of you, we've been carefully monitoring recent tariff announcements, and we are aware of the potential for the situation to further escalate. As we've said many times, as a guest-focused retailer, we're concerned about tariffs because they would increase prices on everyday products for American families.

In addition, a prolonged deterioration in global trade relationships could damage economic growth and vitality in the United States. Given these risks, we've been expressing our concerns to our leaders in Washington, both on our own and along with other retailers and trade association partners. However, our concern is centered on the impact of tariffs on consumers and the economy, not our ability to manage our business in the face of these challenges. As you know, when we're faced with tariffs or any other external factors, there are multiple levers we can pull to remain price competitive and maintain profitability. We are continually developing and implementing contingency plans as we learn more and things evolve. While we always account for risks like these when we plan for the future, today, we are also focused on the multiple opportunities we see in front of us.

In the first half of 2018, we delivered comparable sales growth of 4.8%, a result which is much stronger than the expectation at the beginning of the year. As a result, we've updated our comp guidance. We are now planning for comp growth in the back half of the year in line with what we've seen in the front half. In addition, we've also updated our full year EPS expectations. Cathy will provide more details in a few minutes. These upgrades to our outlook reflect the current trends we're seeing across our business, including a very strong start to back to school and back to college. In addition, we continue to focus on unique opportunities in key toy and baby categories, given the recent closure of Toys R Us and Babies R Us across the country.

Of course, as the year progresses, we'll continue to benefit from the broader rollout of new fulfillment capabilities like Drive Up and Shipt, brand launches in multiple categories, the completion of additional remodels, and the opening of more small format stores. As we look beyond 2018, we have increasing confidence that we can deliver very strong results in the years ahead as we move into the next phase of our strategic plan and achieve scale across the full slate of our growth initiatives. When we move beyond testing to scaling, we'll see efficiencies in cost savings, further strengthening our guest experience and overall position in the marketplace. Importantly, by the end of 2020, we'll have a newly refreshed base of stores reflecting our plan to complete more than 1,100 remodels in a four-year period through 2020.

Now, before I turn the call over to John, I want to pause and thank the entire Target team for everything they're doing to deliver outstanding operational and financial performance. In pursuit of our plans, we're asking our team to deliver more change faster than at any time ever before. The team is responding enthusiastically to the challenge. It is inspiring to see our vision coming to life. I want to quickly add, while our progress feels great, we have no intention of slowing down. We'll continue to seize the opportunity ahead of us and offer our guests more inspiration and convenience than ever before. With that, I'll turn the call over to John, who will provide an update on our rollout of new fulfillment options, investments in new and existing stores, and changes in our stores to make the shopping experience easier for our guests. John?

John Mulligan
COO, Target

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everybody. As I've discussed with many of you, the operations team faces a fundamental challenge in delivering on our strategic initiatives. As we work to make changes to virtually every facet of our operations, modernizing our supply chain, delivering new fulfillment options, and increasing efficiency in our stores, we need to simultaneously focus on maintaining everyday reliability in support of a $75 billion business. In the face of this challenge, I'm really proud of how our team is performing on both priorities, particularly in light of the rapid acceleration in sales we've seen in recent quarters. As you know, our strategic plan includes significant investments in the physical infrastructure of our stores.

This is because our stores will continue to be the key fulfillment node for our guests, whether that's a traditional store trip, a Drive Up order, an in-store pickup order, a trip by a Shipt shopper, or a traditional e-commerce purchase shipped from a local Target store. Our goal for the year is to deliver well over 300 remodels, and we are on track to deliver that plan. We completed remodels of 113 stores in the second quarter on top of the 56 we completed in the first quarter, and many more are underway. In fact, in July, we had 258 locations undergoing a remodel during at least a portion of the month, the highest at any time in our history. While a remodel project creates an optimal platform for all of our fulfillment initiatives, it also provides our guests with a more inspiring environment that's easier to shop.

Our guests continue to respond by shopping more often. Specifically, consistent with our plan, we continue to see traffic-driven incremental sales lifts of 2%-4% in our remodeled stores following completion of the remodel. While the data is limited, we are seeing some early indications that remodeled stores continue to outcomp other stores beyond the first year after the remodel. We also continue to see encouraging performance from our new small format stores. We opened six of these new locations in the second quarter on top of the six we opened earlier in the year. These locations deliver high sales productivity along with gross margin rates above the company average. We continue to see strong growth as these stores mature.

At the end of the second quarter, we were operating 26 mature small format stores, and on average, this group saw high single-digit comp growth during the quarter. Beyond the physical experience in our stores, we continue to invest in hours, training, and wages for our store team, allowing them to deliver a higher level of service and a better overall experience for our guests. While this modernization is focused on the guest experience, it is fueled by efficiency. In the second and third quarters this year, we are investing in team member training across every one of our stores, focusing on how our team members can be more helpful to our guests as they shop. We've rolled out new tools and technology that allow our team to find and order items on behalf of our guests and process the sale from anywhere in the sales floor.

We're hiring differently, focusing on the passion and expertise of team members who can deliver more information and service in key categories like beauty, electronics, apparel, and food. In food and beverage, we are changing how the team accomplishes everyday tasks, allowing more opportunity for guests to interact with experts on the sales floor, while also standardizing operations to ensure we have fresh and full presentations, a focus on food safety, and a strong and efficient foundation for how we operate. While these investments are already helping us deliver stronger traffic and sales, we are also focused on driving efficiencies that can help us offset the cost. As a result, we have completely redesigned when and how our teams sort and stock product, reducing steps and creating more opportunity for guest interaction during key business hours.

In addition, we have implemented changes to our backroom organization for store teams to more efficiently ensure our guests have what they need on the sales floor, particularly in apparel. Of course, our work on the upstream supply chain is focused on changes that will dramatically reduce store workload associated with unloading and restocking over the next few years. Beyond store investments, I want to give you an update on our rollout of new fulfillment options across the country. The team has been moving at an amazing pace, and our guests continue to tell us that they love the new options. I'll start with Shipt, our same-day personal shopping service, which is now operating in more than 160 markets and serving more than 1,100 Target stores. Over the last year, Shipt's membership base has more than tripled, while orders, revenue, and GMV are two to three times higher.

While some of this growth is being driven by Shipt's entry into new markets, we're seeing orders in GMV in comparable markets, meaning markets in which Shipt was already operating a year ago, that are up nearly 100% year-over-year. We're also very pleased that new partners continue to sign into the Shipt platform, attracted by the reliability and level of service that Shipt can provide. Year to date, the Shipt team has added to their marketplace a total of 19 new retail partners who operate under 24 unique banners across the country. This is more than double the number of new partners that Shipt added to its marketplace in all of 2017. We're also pleased with the rollout of our new service in dense urban market stores, which we call Delivery from Store.

With this service, guests pay a small fee at checkout and choose a time window later that same day when their shopping basket will be delivered to their front door. This service is now available in 58 stores across five markets, and guests continue to love it. The average basket size for this service is more than $200, the highest of any service we provide. Last, but certainly not least, is our new Drive Up service. We started the year offering Drive Up in 50 stores, and at the end of the second quarter, it had expanded to more than 800 locations around the country. Our stores have done an excellent job training their teams to deliver this new service, and guest satisfaction is off the charts. Our most recent net promoter score for Drive Up is 88, a crazy high number, the highest of any service we provide.

We expect to have this service rolled out to nearly 1,000 stores by the holiday season, and we will continue the rapid expansion next year. On top of these new services, we continue to see rapid growth and adoption of other digital fulfillment services, including Restock, in-store pickup, and of course, shipping to our guests' front doors. You've seen that growth in our numbers for a long time now, as we've seen year-over-year growth in our digital sales in the 20%-30% range for several years. However, this quarter, we saw a step up in the pace of growth, and a lot of that acceleration was driven by our One-Day Sale in July. Among the many reasons to host a digital sale in July, it's important for our team because it gives them the opportunity to stress-test our systems and processes in advance of the peak holiday season.

This year, the July sale presented a really robust test as orders and sales far exceeded our expectations. The sale created by far the biggest digital sales day we've ever experienced outside of a holiday season, driving volume nearly three times higher than our forecast. While this was great news of course, our store and supply chain teams had to react and recover quickly to fulfill all the unplanned demand and keep operations running smoothly. While that challenge presented some long days for our team, I'm really proud of how they responded, adding to my confidence in our ability to accommodate peak demand in the upcoming holiday season. In a way, the story of the One-Day Sale is similar to the story of the second quarter, as we saw stronger than expected volume throughout the quarter.

This has caused some in-stock challenges in certain items and categories, and the team is working quickly to recover and plan for higher volumes throughout the rest of the year. As a result, our inventory position at the end of the second quarter was up about 11% from a year ago. Of course, a meaningful portion of this growth is being driven by our current and planned level of sales, which are growing faster than we've seen in many years. In addition, the team has brought in extra inventory to recover and protect in-stocks, and we are seeing higher levels of in-transit inventory as our operations teams develop plans to accommodate the fourth quarter surge. Of course, our merchant teams have brought in extra volume to address the unique market share opportunity we're facing in toys and baby.

Bottom line, we continue to feel very good about our overall inventory position, given our plans for the rest of the year. Before I turn it over to Mark, I want to reiterate what Brian said earlier. Our current traffic and sales growth are not being driven by any single thing we're doing. They're the result of everything we're doing for our guests. I want to thank everyone on the team for making it happen. Where there's a lot of change that's visible from the outside, there's even more change happening internally. That amount of change presents a challenge, so it's incredibly rewarding when we see our guests responding in such a positive way. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark, who will provide more detail on our second quarter performance and our upcoming plans in merchandising. Mark?

Mark Tritton
Chief Merchandising Officer, Target

Thanks, John. As Brian and John have mentioned, the momentum we're seeing across our business is amazing, and we can't point to any one single driver. Instead, the common denominator is our guest, who is thinking of us and choosing to shop with us more often. As we benefit from this momentum, our goal is to maintain this focus on our guests and push ourselves to do more, even more quickly in service to them. As we've said before at Target, we're at our best when we maintain a proper balance in our business with a focus on delivering and, not or. After all, we don't ask our guests to expect more or pay less. We work to consistently deliver on both sides of that brand promise. It doesn't stop there.

We feature a curated assortment that satisfies wants and needs, offers basic items and must-have style, and highlights national brands and own brands. We invest to ensure we're Priced Right Daily and offer compelling deals, design our assortment to support both stock-up and fill-in trips, we feature all of it in stores and online. Guest surveys give us confidence that we're achieving a proper balance in the current environment. For example, in the second quarter, our guest scores for convenience and everyday pricing increased, our differentiation score increased as well. This is a testament to the efforts of our entire team over the last 18 months and their focus on delivering the right combination of everyday prices and compelling promotions with a right assortment of innovative national brands, alongside exciting new owned and exclusive brands. We're also seeing good balance in our category performance.

Comp growth in all five of our core categories accelerated in the second quarter, all of them grew faster than our first quarter comp of 3%. Among the three months, May benefited from the recovery of temperature-sensitive sales, July benefited from the back to school, back to college, and some calendar shift. Comps in all three months were stronger than our first quarter trend. Also of note, we saw some of our strongest market share gains around key life moments like Mother's Day, Father's Day, Memorial Day, of course, the Fourth of July. We also saw sustained results outside of those holidays, driven by the strength of our essentials and food and beverage categories, which saw share gains in every week of the quarter. We saw unusually strong second quarter growth across each of our style categories, apparel, beauty, and home.

Home was the standout with a comp of nearly 10% growth, driven by even faster growth in decor and kitchen, which are benefiting from our new own brands. Within home, we also saw strong sales in seasonal categories, reflecting encouraging early results in the back to school and back to college seasons. In apparel, we saw high teens growth in baby, reflecting the benefit of the unique opportunity we're facing to gain market share in baby and toys, given the recent closures of Toys R Us and Babies R Us across the country. Given the strong affinity between families with young children and our brand, both toys and babies are key categories for us, we expect to see traffic and share gains in both of them for the rest of the year and beyond.

Outside of the style categories, our hard lines, food and beverage, and essentials categories also delivered standout growth. Hard lines was particularly strong, driven by double-digit comps in both toys and electronics. Within electronics, we saw really strong growth in video games as well as accessories, where we successfully launched our new own brand, Heyday, during the quarter. In essentials, second quarter growth was strongest in baby and in pets, both of which saw double-digit comp growth. In food and beverage, we delivered our sixth straight quarter of accelerating comps. Growth continues to be led by adult beverage and produce, areas in which we have made important investments over the last couple of years.

To continue supporting our frequency businesses, our successful Target Run and Done marketing campaign has begun featuring convenient fulfillment services like in-store pickup and Drive Up, making sure our guests understand all the ways they can get their Target run done. As we look at our broad category strength, what's especially encouraging is that it isn't being driven by higher promotions. In fact, sales at our everyday price are up more than $2 billion so far this year, reflecting the continued benefit of our team's efforts to establish a better balance between meaningful promotions and everyday pricing. Even for the promotional events like our July One-Day Sale, we're thinking differently about how we can provide value. More than half of our digital sales on that day were in our highly differentiated and high-margin home category. As John told you, we blew away our forecasts for that event.

As we look ahead, we have a lot more in store for the third quarter and beyond. On top of the new owned and exclusive brands we launched in 2017 and earlier this year, which continue to perform really well, we launched four new own brands in the second quarter that will drive our results going forward. Three of these new brands were designed to invite young millennials and the emerging Gen Z guests to experience Target in ways that are authentic to them. Wild Fable is our newest apparel and accessories brand for young women. It's driven by current trends and focused on enabling guests to create their own style for their own many life moments. For young men, we just launched Original Use, a street-meets-vintage modern brand focused on enabling guests to explore fashion, culture, and individuality.

Both Wild Fable and Original Use feature a wide range of sizes, reflecting our commitment to inclusive sizing. As I mentioned earlier, we launched our exclusive Heyday brand of electronic accessories in June. This brand is designed to appeal to style-conscious guests and incredible value without sacrificing quality, with trendy, fun, and quality tech at very affordable prices. Also in June, we launched our newest home brand, Made By Design, consisting of more than 750 items in kitchen, storage, bedding, bath, and even furniture, with most items below $30. This brand is the ultimate expression of Target's DNA, a commitment to the democratization of design, offering high-quality style at affordable prices. We design each product to intuitively go beyond the expected, delivering smart solutions that make everyday tasks easier. For example, the cookware incorporates pour spouts on the rims and built-in strainers in the lids.

Glasses are stackable, and towels include hanging hooks that keep them off the floor. Items were designed to forgive minor mistakes, like silicone and nylon tools that can handle heat up to 450 degrees in case you accidentally leave your spatula on a hot fry pan. Finally, in addition to our new own brands, we are really pleased with the second quarter performance of our unique collaboration with Disney to celebrate Mickey's 90th Anniversary. This collaboration features more than 350 exclusive items spanning multiple categories, including toys, bedding, beach gear, beauty, even pets, all celebrating Mickey and the pure magic of summer, bringing joy you can only find at Target. Of course, beyond new items and brands already launched, we have more newness planned for the third quarter. I look forward to revealing more soon. Our differentiation doesn't just happen with new brands.

We also deliver newness through our existing brand portfolio. Look at Cat & Jack. We launched this kids brand more than two years ago, and sales and market share continue to grow. That's because we continue to invest and deliver newness and great design through Cat & Jack every day, every season. Whether we're talking about a new brand or an existing brand, it's our focus on the guest, innovation, and great design at a great price that are key for Target to continue to win through differentiation, and that is not going to slow down. With that, I'll turn it over to Cathy, who will provide more detail on our second quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year. Cathy?

Cathy Smith
CFO, Target

Thanks, Mark. Our second quarter financial performance exceeded our expectations on both the top line and the bottom line, reflecting the benefit of our strategic initiatives in a very strong consumer environment. As Brian mentioned, our second quarter comp sales increase of 6.5% is the strongest we've seen at Target in 13 years. This growth reflected a 4.9% increase in our store comparable sales, combined with 41% growth in digital. These are both very healthy numbers in isolation, and they're even more powerful together. Traffic growth of 6.4% accounted for nearly all of our comparable sales growth in the second quarter. In addition, for the first time in nearly two years, our comp sales grew faster than comp traffic, as we saw a small 0.1% increase in basket in the quarter.

In our last quarterly call, when describing our first quarter traffic increase of 3.7%, we described it as the strongest result we had ever reported since we began reporting this metric in 2008. Obviously then, this quarter's traffic growth of more than 6% is well beyond anything we've reported before, and we are really encouraged to see continued momentum in such a key metric. Our second quarter gross margin rate of 30.3% was down about 10 basis points from last year, and slightly better than our guidance. Among the drivers, we continue to see meaningful pressure from fulfillment costs as guest engagement with our digital channel continues to grow, and we rapidly roll out new convenient fulfillment options across the country.

However, in the second quarter, this headwind was almost completely offset by the benefit of our merchandising initiatives, including ongoing cost-saving efforts and the benefit of our work on pricing and promotions. The mix of our sales was a slight headwind in the second quarter, as strong sales in our high-margin home and apparel categories were balanced by really strong trends in lower-margin categories, including toys, baby, and electronics. Our second quarter SG&A expense rate was about 10 basis points higher than last year. Across the broad categories of expense, there were no large rate variances year-over-year, as cost pressures were offset within categories. For example, second quarter compensation costs reflected pressure from higher wage rates, but those costs were offset by lower incentive expense compared with a year ago. Our second quarter depreciation and amortization expense rate was slightly lower than a year ago.

This was better than our expectations, driven by stronger-than-expected sales and a smaller-than-expected increase in D&A expense associated with our remodel program. Altogether, our operating income margin rate was about 20 basis points lower than last year, somewhat better than our guidance for a 40 basis point decline. Notably, operating income dollars were 3.6% higher than last year, as the increase in total revenue more than offset a slightly lower rate. Below the operating income line, second quarter interest expense was about 12% lower than a year ago as we continued to benefit from last year's debt retirement and refinancing activity. Our second quarter effective tax rate was 21.8%, down nearly 10 percentage points from last year, reflecting the benefit of federal tax reform legislation.

Bottom line, we reported second quarter GAAP EPS from continuing operations of $1.49, up 22.7% from last year, and adjusted EPS of $1.47, 19.8% higher than a year ago. Stepping back to look at the first two quarters of 2018 in total, Target's comparable sales have increased 4.8% from last year, and our GAAP and adjusted EPS are both up about 15%. This year-to-date performance reflects the traffic and sales benefit of our strategic initiatives, continued significant investments in operating income, and the offsetting benefit from federal tax reform. Turning briefly to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with about $9.1 billion of inventory. This represents an 11% increase from last year, as John covered earlier. Also notable on the balance sheet is the growth in payables, which were 20% higher than last year at about $9.1 billion as well.

Payables leverage has grown substantially in the last couple of years as the team has focused on improving that metric as a source of funding for the meaningful investments we're making. Even accounting for this investment in our inventory, our business continues to generate very healthy cash flow. Specifically, through the first half of 2018, our continuing operations have generated more than $2.7 billion in cash, providing ample capacity to make meaningful investments in our business while returning capital to shareholders. In the second quarter, we made capital investments of just over $1 billion, and we remain on track for CapEx of about $3.5 billion for the year. These investments are concentrated primarily in store projects, including remodels, other presentation enhancements, and new urban and college locations around the country.

Beyond those capital investments, in the second quarter, we returned just over three-quarters of a billion dollars to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. In June, our board of directors approved a 3.2% increase in our quarterly dividend from $0.62 to $0.64. With this increase, 2018 is on track to mark our 47th consecutive year of annual increases. Finally, I always like to close my quarterly commentary with a discussion of Target's after-tax ROIC. This is a key metric we monitor closely as it incorporates both our operating performance and the quality of our capital deployment decisions. For the trailing 12 months ending in the second quarter, we recorded after-tax ROIC of 16%, including the discrete benefits of federal tax reform that we recorded in last year's fourth quarter.

Even after we exclude those discrete benefits, our second quarter ROIC of 14.2% was up about 70 basis points from a year ago. It's encouraging that we're returning to growth in this metric as we're seeing the initial impact of last year's strategic investments in capital and operating income, which were designed to best position Target for success over time. Now let's turn to our guidance for the third quarter and the full year. As we look at the underlying drivers of our traffic and sales, there are more positive indicators than we've seen for many years. These indicators are reinforced by our comparable traffic and sales results, which have been gaining momentum over the last year and a half.

Today, we updated our guidance for both the third quarter and the back half of the year. We are now planning for comparable sales growth in line with what we delivered in the first half of the year. We move down the P&L to the operating income line, we continue to plan cautiously and focus on the unique opportunity we're facing to capture additional traffic and market share in key categories like toys and baby. In light of that opportunity, we have updated our expectation for the gross margin mix of our sales for the remainder of the year, reflecting higher sales expectations in these lower margin categories. With this updated mix expectation, we are now planning for a gross margin rate decline of 30 to 40 basis points in the third quarter.

Combining that expectation with our forecast for a slight increase in our SG&A expense rate and a small amount of rate favorability on the D&A expense line, we are planning for a 20 to 30 basis point decline in our operating income margin rate in the third quarter. These expectations translate to an expected range for both GAAP and adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.20 in the third quarter. For the full year, we are now planning for an operating income margin rate decline of 30 to 40 basis points on a higher base of expected sales. These expectations translate to a full-year outlook for adjusted EPS of $5.30 to $5.50, compared with our prior range of $5.15 to $5.45. We believe this expectation achieves the appropriate balance between shorter-term and longer-term priorities.

Namely, it reflects improved bottom-line expectations resulting from an increase in expected sales while allowing the flexibility for our business teams to invest appropriately in the traffic and the market share opportunities we're currently facing in a number of key categories. As we enter next year, we will be well-positioned to benefit from these share gains. In addition, we'll benefit from achieving much greater scale across all of the capabilities we've been testing and launching across the country. With this scale, we will realize efficiencies and cost savings, which will position us to deliver profitable growth in 2019 and beyond. Before I turn the call back over to Brian, I want to thank all of you who are listening for staying with us on the journey we began last year.

At the beginning of 2017, we said that to position Target for long-term success, we needed to make some bold investments in both capital and operating margin to accelerate our transformation and deliver more relevant experiences, brands, and fulfillment options to our guests faster. The momentum of our results since that announcement 18 months ago makes us more and more confident that we are making the right investments, and that affirmation is coming most strongly from our guests. We're seeing unprecedented traffic and the best comp sales trends in more than a decade. As Brian said earlier, there is no doubt that the environment is an important factor in our current success, as consumer trends are the strongest they've been in some time. Market share data continues to confirm that we are growing faster than the market in the broad set of categories we sell.

While this is great to see, we are just entering the next phase of our transformation, we have much more to accomplish in the month and years ahead. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Brian for some final remarks.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thanks, Cathy. Before we move to your questions, I want to add to what Cathy was just saying. Eighteen months ago, when we were developing our plan to make additional investments in our business so we could move faster, we considered all of our stakeholders as we evaluated our options. Obviously, we started with our guests, since they are at the center of everything we do. We also decided to increase our investments in our Target team, adding hours, training, and wages to allow them to better serve our guests. We thought about our merchandise vendors and how we can change the way we work together to deliver quality, newness, differentiation, and value to our guests. We looked at our community giving and corporate responsibility efforts, focusing on the issues most important to our guests and where Target can have the most impact.

We obviously considered you, our shareholders, because your capital supports all the investments we make. As I mentioned at our financial community meeting last spring, I am very grateful for the personal comments I received from many of you in support of the commitments we've made to our business, our team, our community, and creating long-term shareholder value. I hope you're as excited as we are to begin seeing the benefit of the long-term decisions we made last year, which are already driving a higher level of engagement between our guests and our brand. With that, we'll move to your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star followed by one. To withdraw your request, press star two. Our first question comes from Seth Sigman with Credit Suisse. You may go ahead.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks a lot, and good morning. A very nice quarter. My question is about the guidance. The guidance seems to imply, I guess, slightly better operating profit growth in the second half of the year. In the second quarter, it was up, and it was up for the first time in a very long time, which is nice to see, it was down for the full first half on similar comps to what you're assuming for the second half. Can you just remind us of some of the drivers? Cathy, we got the margin commentary, but just help us a little bit more with some of the levers as we move into the second half of the year, some of the cost savings and other opportunities that will help support that operating profit growth. Thank you.

Cathy Smith
CFO, Target

Yes, morning, Seth. Thank you. As we did say, we're obviously very, very pleased with the quarter, thank you for the comment. As we think about updating our guidance for the remainder of the year, we expect consistent sales. First, on the top line, we see the back half, we've got plans for consistent sales growth in that same range, which is obviously very strong, consistent with the traffic and sales we've been seeing. Then on profitability, we see a great opportunity to continue to take share and go after some categories, specifically toys and baby. We baked that in into the back half of the year. All of that said, we'll continue investing in both the fulfillment aspects which are coming through in gross margin and then the category mix.

Then on the SG&A line, we'll continue to invest in our stores. All of that said, we expect the back half of the year for a slight deterioration in op income margin rates.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you for that.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Seth, we feel like we're very well-positioned for the back half of the year. As I've mentioned with my prepared comments, we're seeing a very strong start to back to school and back to college. We continue to see very strong traffic trends, and we expect to monetize that in the back half of the year. You should expect continued strong performance from Target throughout 2018, but it also sets us up for very strong performance as we go into 2019 and beyond. I think we're well positioned to continue to build off of the current momentum, and you should expect us to begin to grow operating income from a dollar standpoint.

Cathy Smith
CFO, Target

As you've mentioned, op income dollars did grow in the second quarter.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

That's great color. If I could just follow up, Brian, on your point. I mean, clearly, there's broad-based strength here, and you highlighted that you don't think it's any single initiative, but can you maybe speak to the biggest surprises relative to your expectations? Because obviously, the quarter turned out better than expected, as well as the outlook. Just any more color on relative to your expectations, what is outperforming? Thank you.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Seth, I'll start with each one of our key initiatives is ahead of the schedule that we had set 18 months ago. We continue to see really positive responses from our store remodels. John mentioned that in the month of July alone, we had over 250 stores under construction. In each and every market, we're seeing really strong guest response to those reimaged stores. Our new small formats continue to impress and are driving productivity from a sales standpoint that are beyond our expectations. The reaction that the guest has had to our new brands has been spectacular in home, in apparel, and now in electronics. Each one of the fulfillment capabilities continues to deliver a great response from the guest. John talked about the net promoter scores we're getting for a service like Drive Up that we'll bring to scale for the holiday season.

The reaction we're getting in each and every market to Shipt, and the quality of Shipt shoppers that are servicing their members. In urban markets like New York or Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, D.C., the ability to shop our urban small formats, and then hours later, have someone deliver that package to your doorstep for a $7 charge, very well received. The investment that we've made in our store teams and putting more expertise in departments like beauty and apparel, in food and beverage, in technology, the reaction we're getting from our guests exceeded our expectation. All of our key initiatives, as they're working together as one, are ahead of the schedule that we would've set 18 months ago. Now, as we move into the holiday season, we'll have more of those at scale.

As we move into 2019, we'll be further ahead of the original plan that we had established back in February of 2017. Each one of the key elements is working ahead of the schedule that we had set back in February of 2017, and we expect that to continue to accelerate. As you've heard me say numerous times, the traffic number, to me, is the most important measure that our strategy is connecting with the consumer, both in our stores and online. We continue to see very strong traffic as we go into the third quarter.

Seth Sigman
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks again, and congrats.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS. You may go ahead.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Morning, Mike.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

You mentioned that the remodels, some of that activity peaked out in July. Was there actually a drag from that, the traffic and same-store sales results would've been even better had it not been for some of the remodeling activity?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Yeah. Mike, it's certainly disruptive when we're remodeling stores. Now we're doing it at scale. We're very focused, John and his team, on shortening the construction cycle, less disruption, rapid recovery. You can only imagine with over 250 stores under construction during an important month like July, there was significant disruption in those store sales. We're going to see the recovery as we go into the third quarter. We certainly expect to have even better response in those stores in Q4. When we remodel, there's significant disruption in sales, but we're seeing that return very quickly once we complete the remodel.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Is that also the case when there was a shift with your same-store sales? It seems like based on your guidance, the shift isn't really a meaningful story here in what either you saw in the second quarter or what you expect for the next couple. I have one last follow-up on that.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Yeah. Mike, while we're very pleased with the rollout, at this point, it's a very small impact to our overall sales. We certainly expect over the next few years that Shipt will have a more meaningful impact on our overall performance. At this point, it's still in a very nascent stage.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

I'm sorry, Brian. That was my fault. I meant just like a calendar shift.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Oh.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

I'm sorry. My fault. I should have spoke clearly.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

We've seen no major impact to the calendar shift throughout the season.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Okay. The last question as a follow-up is, so it sounds like the gross margin is going to be impacted by the mix, which is a prudent strategy and totally reasonable for the back half. Is there also some effect from fulfillment cost as e-commerce becomes a bigger portion of the mix?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Yeah

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Does that act as a continued drag beyond just the next couple of quarters? Thank you.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

We're certainly going to face some headwinds from the rapid growth that we've seen online in our digital performance, up 41% on top of 32% last year. I think Mark and our entire team have done a sensational job of managing gross margin rate. You look at the kind of growth we drove in the second quarter, up 6.5%. You look at digital growing by 41%, we were able to basically maintain gross margin rates equal to last year. I mean, the erosion was 10 basis points. With that kind of explosive growth, we're managing mix very effectively. It's where, and again, you've heard us talk about this before, the continued performance of our own brands plays a very prominent role in allowing us to manage our mix.

To have a category like home grow at almost 10%, driven by some great new brand launches, led by Made by Design during the quarter. That's how we're managing to mitigate some of the gross margin rate deterioration that others are experiencing right now. I feel really good about the efforts of the team and our ability to continue to drive store growth at almost 5%, build our online business at a rate of 41%, use our mix management and our own brands to deliver very strong gross margin rate performance in the quarter.

Michael Lasser
Analyst, UBS

Best of luck with the second half.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Oliver Chen with Cowen. You may go ahead.

Oliver Chen
Analyst, Cowen

Thank you. Congrats on a great quarter. Our question is about pricing and promotion. What are your thoughts on managing that in the context of what you've been doing in the consumer environment? You've done a really good job with that gross margin rate. I'm just curious about value and how you'll continue to communicate that. Also, we were curious about the loyalty program. You have a very loyal customer, but what's ahead in terms of what you're thinking there just to capture data and continue to engage the customer?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Oliver, why don't I start with loyalty and then let Mark talk about our continued efforts to support our Priced Right Daily positioning. The loyalty program is off to a very solid start in the Dallas market. We're watching that carefully. John Mulligan and I are actually going to be heading down there this week to assess the program and our performance in the market. Still in a very early stage. As we think about 2019 and beyond, we certainly expect our Target loyalty program, Target Red, to play a very important role in building even greater engagement and loyalty with our guests. Lots more to come as we get into 2019 and think about loyalty. Mark, why don't you talk about our efforts on the pricing and promo front and our continued support of being Priced Right Daily?

Mark Tritton
Chief Merchandising Officer, Target

Yeah. Hi, Oliver. I think that the work that we did with Priced Right Daily, beginning in 2017 and our opening price point stance, which really spans how we're pricing every day, both in national brand and own brand, has been really key to part of the traffic generation and seeing consistent flow, whether it's in stock-up or more importantly, in fill-in trips that are changing our frequency business, but also across the board, make it very easy for the guest to shop in-store and online with great transparency and simplicity of pricing. We've been able to exercise great pricing, communicate simply to the guest, and we're getting credit for that. The data that we're seeing in share in each of the categories, is really reinforcing that.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Oliver, I think one of the reasons we're so confident in our second half outlook is because we're seeing such a great response from our guests to the investments we've made in pricing to make sure that we're Priced Right Daily on those key food and beverage and household essential items. Those are driving footstep to our stores, visits to our site, and they've been a key driver behind the rapid acceleration in traffic.

Oliver Chen
Analyst, Cowen

It's really helpful. Our last question is about supply chain. You made a lot of really encouraging progress in supply chain. What are your thoughts about the state of speed and in-stock levels? We saw a lot of the technology and thoughts you have ahead at your Investor Day at Target Lab. What are you seeing in terms of how you'll manage the bricks and clicks story and also how you'll manage for the smaller pack sizes? I'd love an update there. Thank you.

John Mulligan
COO, Target

Yeah, Oliver, great question. I talked about this a little bit in my remarks. The challenge for us is balancing changing the business while we operate the business. As you said, we showed you a lot of what we're doing to change the business. We'll start scaling a lot of that work in 2019. That has the opportunity to significantly move our capabilities forward as we begin to scale that work. I think right now, we've said, as the sales accelerated, particularly in Q2 from Q1 to Q2, there's some areas where we've been spotty on in-stocks, and we're not happy with that. You see the response in our inventories. We're flowing goods in a little bit earlier for Q4 so that we can flow them to the stores appropriately.

We've taken positions in things like A New Day basics, things like denim, chinos, where last year, frankly, the new brands came out and we were almost immediately out of stock. We've made investments there. We're working hard on food and beverage. As Mark said, we're gaining share for six quarters in a row. We're learning how to operate that business both differently in the store and in the supply chain. We feel good about the progress we've made, we are not satisfied with our current in-stock position. There's more work to do there.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Oliver, I'll just build on that for you and others on the call. While this was a really strong quarter for the company, when we think about constant 6.5%, the strong comps in store, the acceleration in digital, there's a lot to be proud of, we know we've got a lot of work to do.

John Mulligan
COO, Target

Yeah.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

We've got to make sure that we are now meeting the demand that's taking place within our system. John's very focused on that to make sure that we improve our in-stock position. We've seen, obviously, a step function change in demand in our stores and online, accelerated growth. We're chasing some of that growth right now, we've got to continue to make sure that we're doing a better job of replenishing our system as we go into the back half of the year, particularly as we get ready for continued strong growth in 2019.

Oliver Chen
Analyst, Cowen

It's very exciting. Thank you. Best regards.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan. You may go ahead.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks. Good morning and great quarter. You focused a lot on scaling in terms of 2019, the different initiatives, but also in terms of the investment base. At the Analyst Day earlier this year, you called out 2018 as an investment year and you're reiterating your view of profitable growth in 2019 and beyond. Can you frame out how you think of that in terms of the margin rates in the business, including gross margin and operating income rate? Could we see flat grosses in 2019 and up OI rate, or are you thinking about profitable growth in terms of a flow-through on a flat OI rate?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Well, Chris, this won't surprise you. We're not going to give 2019 guidance today.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, JPMorgan

I'm trying.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

I know you are, and you're trying hard. I would refer you back to Cathy's comments earlier. When we look at our second quarter progress, really strong gross margin rate for a company that grew at our level. For the first time in a while, operating income is growing from a dollar standpoint. We're seeing some improvement in our performance. We expect that to continue over time, but you'll have to stick with us for another day when we're ready to give 2019 guidance.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. In terms of the e-commerce growth, you call that a big lift from the One-Day Sale, but at the same time, you're scaling a lot of fulfillment options into the back half. Do you think you can maintain sort of that 40% online sales growth into the back half, and how much of that contributes to the updated comp outlook versus, say, share in baby and toys in these key seasons coming up?

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Chris, I'll let John build on this, but we expect very strong digital growth in the back half. Obviously, we're guiding to comp sales that are going to be very consistent with our first half performance. You're going to continue to see us scale up, Drive Up, and Shipt Same Day Delivery in urban markets. That's going to play a very meaningful role, but you should expect our stores to be a very important driver to our growth in the back half of the year, and complemented by continued maturity in our fulfillment capabilities.

Cathy Smith
CFO, Target

Yeah, I'll just add real quickly, Chris. Stores did almost five comp by themselves, and obviously, our stores are fulfilling much of that 41% digital growth. Well over two-thirds of that digital growth is being fulfilled out of our stores. We're blurring those lines every single day, making sure we have a great experience for our guests and letting them choose to shop how they want to engage with Target. We're going to start talking less and less at some point about an actual digital comp because it is truly our entire business fueled by those stores.

Christopher Horvers
Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thanks very much.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew McClintock with Barclays. You may go ahead.

Matthew McClintock
Analyst, Barclays

Hi. Yes. Good morning, everyone. Brian, I was wondering if I could ask a macro question. The broader retail industry has truly enjoyed a resurgence across the board this quarter. Target seems to stand out because of traffic, as you highlighted. I was wondering if I could get your thoughts on what's driving this. Why did the American consumer all of a sudden just wake up and start going to retailers again? Thinking forward, how should we think about Target's strength this quarter and the traffic trends this quarter, the strength, everything that all throughout the year when we get to 2019 and you're up against that comparison in Q2? I just want to say in Q2 of next year, there's going to be a lot of skepticism that you can comp to comp at that point in time. Just your thoughts.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Matt, let me start with the macro environment. We've talked about this a lot over the last few years, and there's been a lot of questions about the role stores would play and was everything going to shift online. I think the one voice that was missing from that conversation was the voice of the consumer. Consumers continue to vote with their footsteps. As we sit here today, and the numbers tend to vary from week to week, but on any given day, 90% of retail sales are done in physical stores. I think what you're seeing right now from a macro basis is well-run retailers with strong balance sheets that generate cash that they can invest back in their business are winning right now.

There's obviously others right now that can't afford to invest in their store experience or build capabilities or drive differentiation, and they're giving up share. There's clearly winners and losers. We certainly think we're migrating to the winners column, and we're driving not only traffic, but as Mark and Cathy and John have talked about, we're taking market share in all of our major merchandising categories. The investments we're making to make sure that Target is a long-term winner are being rewarded right now by the consumer and our guests. We've got to continue to make sure we focus on executing our strategy as we go into 2019, continue to take advantage of the market share opportunities that are out there. And I'll go back to our February 2017 investor conference.

One of the things we talked about in our overall management thesis is there were going to be $ billions of retail market share up for grabs, and we were going to position ourselves to take more than our fair share of that. We're seeing it happen. As companies like Toys "R" Us and Babies "R" Us exit the market, as others close stores, we're picking up market share in those important categories and those key geographic catchments. We'll expect to continue to do that in 2019 and beyond. It's what gives us confidence that we're going to be able to lap these strong numbers in 2018 with continued strength in 2019 and beyond.

Matthew McClintock
Analyst, Barclays

Perfect. Thank you very much, Brian.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

Thank you. Operator, I think we have time for one last question.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. You may go ahead.

Joe Feldman
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

Yeah. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to go back to something I think John was talking about with the labor and some of the changes maybe in the way you're hiring people and kind of the way you're allocating labor in the store and some of the transformation in the back room. Can you just give a little more detail on that and explore that issue?

John Mulligan
COO, Target

Sure, Joe. I think internally, you've probably heard us talk about this as stores modernization. It's really Jana and the store team have done a great job just stepping back and saying, "What is it we're trying to accomplish in the store?" Certainly there's the work we have to do moving product out to the sales floor and checking people out and all the things that just happen because they have to happen in a store. Our goal there is to become more efficient. To become more efficient, not just for efficiency's sake, but to provide the fuel so that we can invest in more talent and better expertise on the sales floor, and in particular, in those areas where it matters the most. Think beauty, electronics, with our visual merchandising in both home and apparel, and then in food.

Those are areas where we have gone out and actively hired for expertise. That's where things like the wage investment are so critical. They've allowed us to differentiate in who and how we hire people. Those team members, finding ways to bring that expertise in and then keep them on the floor so that the beauty team member is in beauty all the time and they're able to help the guest. They also keep track of what's going on in that part of the store relative to in-stocks and inventory flow. Rather than having a team of generalists doing price change one day, checking out the next day, and maybe moving freight on Wednesday, these individuals are accountable for their part of the store. They're out there, they get to know the guests and provide a very different level of experience.

We've invested in tools and a significant amount of training to help them. This has been a journey we've been on for a couple of years. We will be on it for a couple more years as the team continues to evolve and build capabilities. We think it's something incredibly important to our long-term success.

Brian Cornell
Chairman and CEO, Target

John, thank you. Operator, thank you. That concludes our Q2 earnings call. I appreciate everyone joining us today. We look forward to talking to you again when we talk about our Q3 results. Thank you.