Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the TJX Companies' Q1 Fiscal 2023 Financial Results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press star one. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, May 18, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President of the TJX Companies, Incorporated. Please go ahead, sir.
Thanks, Missy. Before we begin, Deb has some opening comments.
Thank you, Ernie, and good morning. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including without limitation, the Form 10-K filed March 30th, 2022. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the TJX Companies, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction, or other use of the same, for profit or otherwise without prior consent of TJX is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. Thank you. Now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.
Good morning. Joining me and Deb on the call is Scott Goldenberg. I'd like to begin the call by reiterating that together with people and businesses around the world, we are united in our condemnation of the war in Ukraine. We have many associates with ties to Ukraine, including those from Ukraine or with family and loved ones living there, and associates in the surrounding countries like Poland. We are steadfastly committed to supporting all of our associates impacted by this crisis. We have offered them our support, including financial, legal, and mental health resources. Further, we have made significant charitable donations to help with the humanitarian relief efforts. In terms of our business ties to Russia, in early March, we committed to divest from our minority investment in Familia, which operates off-price stores in Russia. Q1 results. Moving to our business update.
I wanna start by once again thanking each of our global associates for their continued commitment to TJX. Thanks to their collective efforts, we continue to offer outstanding merchandise and values to our shoppers every day. Now to our results. I am very pleased with our Q1 performance. I am especially pleased that both Q1 adjusted pre-tax profit margin and adjusted earnings per share exceeded our expectations. We achieved these results even though comp sales came in a bit lighter than our plans. I also wanna highlight the strong performance of our largest division, Marmaxx, which delivered a comp increase of 3% over a 12% open-only comp increase of last year. We were especially pleased that Marmaxx's comp was driven by customer traffic increases, which speak to the appeal of our values and merchandise.
Our Q1 performance highlights the sharp execution and flexibility of the entire organization that once again navigated through an uncertain environment and global supply chain issues to bring an exciting mix of merchandise to our stores and online shoppers. During the quarter, our teams flexed our product mix and categories to respond to consumer trends and preferences. We saw the benefits of our pricing initiative for another quarter while continuing to deliver our customers outstanding value, which is our buyers' number one priority. With people's wallets stretched even further in the current environment, our teams did an outstanding job of offering shoppers excellent values every day. Longer term, I am confident about our ability to capture market share and improve the margin profile of TJX. Our goal is to return to our fiscal 2020 pre-tax margin level of 10.6% within three years.
We are convinced that our differentiated treasure hunt shopping experience and outstanding values will continue to resonate with consumers and drive the successful growth of our business in the U.S. and internationally for many years to come. Before I continue, I'll turn the call over to Scott to cover our Q1 financial results in more detail.
Thanks, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to echo Ernie's comments and thank all of our global associates for their continued hard work. I'll start with some additional details on the Q1 . As Ernie mentioned, we are very pleased with our Q1 profit results. Consolidated adjusted pre-tax margin of 9.4%, which excludes a 190 basis point negative impact from a charge related to the write-down of our minority investment in Familia, was up 220 basis points versus last year. This was higher than our plan due to the timing of expenses as well as the combination of expense management and a bigger business benefit from our pricing initiative. For the Q1 , the pre-tax margin increase includes the benefit of our pricing initiative. Similar to the Q4 , we saw a very strong mark-on.
However, merchandise margin was down due to 220 basis points of incremental freight pressure. Incremental wage costs also negatively impacted pre-tax margins by 70 basis points. Our year-over-year margin increase also includes a benefit from a reduction in COVID-related expenses and the annualization of temporary store closures internationally last year. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 were above our plan and exclude a $0.19 negative impact from the charge related to our Familia investment. Our U.S. comp store sales growth rounded down to flat over an outsized 17% open-only comp increase last year and were a bit below our plan range. I want to highlight that we are incredibly close to rounding to a positive 1% U.S. comp. Q1 average basket was up, driven by a higher average ticket and U.S. customer traffic was down slightly.
As far as the monthly cadence, U.S. comp sales on a three-year stack basis improved in the March-April period. During the quarter, we saw very strong comp sales in our overall apparel business at Marmaxx, which was up 6%. U.S. Home comp sales, including our HomeGoods division and Marmaxx home categories, were down 7%. I should note that last year, our U.S. open-only home comp sales increased over 40%. Importantly, we believe the comp sales decline in our U.S. home businesses was a result of the difficult year-over-year comparison and not driven by our pricing initiative. Another point I want to highlight is that our store inventory turns for every division and overall markdowns were favorable to pre-pandemic levels. Further, our research tells us that customers' perception of our value gap with other retailers remains strong. Now to our division results.
At Marmaxx, Q1 comp store sales increased 3% over a very strong 12% open-only comp increase last year, and segment profit increased to 13.2%. Again, we are particularly pleased to see an increase in customer traffic at Marmaxx, which is up low single digits. I'll also reiterate that the comp increase was driven by Marmaxx's overall apparel business, which was up 6%. In the Q1 , we saw an increase in Marmaxx's average basket driven by a higher average ticket, primarily due to our pricing initiative as well as apparel sales being a higher percentage of the mix. At HomeGoods, Q1 comp store sales decreased 7% versus a remarkable 40% open-only comp increase last year. Segment profit margin was hurt by nearly 700 basis points of incremental freight costs.
I want to highlight that HomeGoods' three-year comp stack for the Q1 was up 33%. HomeGoods' average basket increased, driven by a higher ticket and customer traffic decreased in the Q1 . Looking ahead, we see HomeGoods as strongly positioned in the retail environment, and we will be emphasizing our value messaging in our marketing. At TJX Canada, overall sales increased 41% and segment profit margin exceeded their pre-COVID Q1 fiscal 2020 level. Year-over-year sales benefited from having stores open all quarter this year versus significant temporary closures in the Q1 of last year. At TJX International, overall sales increased 163% due to the benefit of having stores open all quarter this year, even while there were still some shopping restrictions. Segment profit margin was negatively impacted by freight costs.
We are very pleased that all of our stores in Europe are currently operating without restrictions. Moving to inventory, our balance sheet inventory was up 37% versus the Q1 last year. On a per store basis, inventory was up 37% on a constant currency basis. I want to emphasize that in-store inventories are where we want them to be as we look at more normalized comparisons to pre-pandemic levels. We still have plenty to open by for the Q2 and H2 of the year. We remain well positioned to take advantage of excellent deals we are seeing in the marketplace and flow fresh merchandise to our stores and online throughout the year. I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions.
During the Q1 , we used $634 million in operating cash flow, primarily due to the timing of inventory purchases and related accounts payables. We ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in cash. In the Q1 , we returned over $900 million to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs. Now I will turn it back to Ernie.
Thanks, Scott. Now I'd like to highlight the opportunities that we see that give us confidence that we can continue to capture market share and improve our profitability both in the near and long term. Starting with the top line, first, we are confident that the combination of our value proposition, our Treasure Hunt shopping experience and flexibility will continue to be a winning retail formula. We are convinced that the consumer's desire for exciting brands and fashions at great values is not going away. Additionally, in today's highly inflationary environment, we believe our value proposition is as appealing as ever. We serve a wide customer demographic and offer a range of merchandise categories and brands across good, better, and best, which we see as a major advantage.
This year, we have exciting marketing initiatives planned to showcase our exceptional value and differentiated shopping experience. First, we are sharpening our marketing messages across our outlets to emphasize our value leadership to consumers. Second, we are strategically targeting pockets of opportunity within certain geographies to amplify our messaging even further. Lastly, we are pleased to see that across all our divisions, customer satisfaction scores are strong, and we are attracting new shoppers of all ages, including a large number of Gen Z and millennial shoppers, which we believe bodes well for the future. Second, we continue to see significant store growth opportunities ahead for all of our divisions. As we have seen over the last few years, demand for our exciting and inspiring in-person shopping experience remains strong.
We see our flexible buying supply chain and store formats as tremendous advantages, which allow us to open stores across a wide customer demographic. All of this gives us confidence in our long-term plan of opening more than 1,500 additional stores in our current markets with our current banners. Lastly, and I can't emphasize this enough, we are extremely confident that we'll continue to have plenty of quality branded merchandise available across good, better, and best brands to support our growth plans. Our global buying team of more than 1,200 buyers sources goods from a universe of approximately 21,000 vendors in more than 100 countries. In a landscape where we are planning to grow our sales and open new stores while many other retailers are closing stores, we offer vendors a very attractive solution to clear their excess product.
To be clear, overall product availability has never been an issue for TJX. We believe that each of these characteristics of our business set us up as well to deliver sales and market share gains in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Australia over the long term. Now, importantly, to profitability. I am very pleased that for the full year, we now expect an adjusted pretax margin on an adjusted basis to reach 9.6%-9.8%, higher than our original plan, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $3.13-$3.20, which at the end is also higher than our original plan. Scott will provide more details, but the key drivers are our strong mark on our pricing initiative and expense management.
We continue to believe that delivering strong sales is the best way to offset the cost pressures that we're facing. We also remain laser-focused on looking at other ways to improve profitability and operate our business more efficiently. As I've mentioned on our last few calls, our initiative to selectively raise retails has been working very well, and we continue to believe it will be a multiyear opportunity for us. We are also optimistic that the expense headwinds we've been facing for the last three years will begin to moderate going forward. Further, looking ahead to the next few years, we see opportunities to improve divisional margins and deliver continued increases in overall profit margins. I want to reiterate that our goal is to return to our fiscal 2020 pretax margin level of 10.6% within three years.
Turning to corporate responsibility and ESG. Last quarter, I shared with you that our environmental sustainability teams were developing plans for more aggressive initiatives across several of our priority areas. I am pleased to share that last month we announced four new global environmental sustainability goals. First, we have set a goal to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in our operations by 2040. Second, we intend to source 100% renewable energy in our operations by 2030. Third, we are working to divert 85% of our operational waste from landfill by 2027. Finally, we are aiming to shift 100% of the packaging for products developed in-house by our product design team to be reusable, recyclable, or contain sustainable materials by 2030.
As I've shared in the past, we've been committed to mitigating our impact on the environment for many years. I'm very excited about these new goals and the plans our teams are putting in place to support them. We look forward to sharing more about our progress as we go forward. As always, we have more information on corporate responsibility at tjx.com. In closing, I want to again thank each of our associates around the globe. We feel great about the health of our business and are confident that the appeal of our exciting merchandise mix and outstanding values will continue to resonate with consumers around the world.
Through our 45-year history and many kinds of retail, economic, and geopolitical environments, we continue to see the advantages and strength of our flexible off-price model. We see many opportunities to capture additional market share and increase our profitability as we look to become a $60 billion+ revenue company. Now, I'll turn the call back to Scott for additional comments, and then we'll open it up for questions. Scott?
Thanks again, Ernie. I'll start with the full year. As Ernie mentioned, we are pleased to be raising our guidance for full year adjusted pretax margin to a range of 9.6%-9.8%. This is 10-30 basis points higher than our original plan. I'd like to highlight that this contemplates our expectation for better flow-through on lower planned sales, which speaks to the strength of our flexible off-price model. I'll also note that we're planning approximately 150-160 basis points of incremental freight expense. Again, for full year adjusted earnings per share, we are planning a range of $3.13-$3.20, which is up 10%-12% over last year's adjusted $2.85.
This is also $0.04 more on the high end than our original plan for EPS this year. We expect full year U.S. comp sales to increase 1%-2% over an outsized 17% U.S. open-only comp increase last year. This guidance now reflects the flow through of our Q1 U.S. comp sales and our Q2 guidance. Our implied back half guidance is for a 4%-5% increase over a 14% increase in the H2 last year. For the full year, we are now planning total TJX sales in the range of $51.3 billion-$51.8 billion. The lower sales guidance is primarily a result of a change in FX rates, which reduced our full year sales forecast by approximately $700 million, as well as our lower than planned Q1 sales.
For modeling purposes, for the full year, we're currently anticipating an adjusted tax rate of 25.7%, net interest expense of about $35 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.18 billion. In terms of our year-end cash position, we expect it to be in line where we originally planned it. We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders. In March, our board of directors approved an increase in our quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.295 per share. This marks our 25th dividend increase over the last 26 years. Additionally, in fiscal 2023, we continue to expect to buy back $2.25 billion-$2.5 billion of TJX stock. Now to our Q2 guidance.
For theQ2 , we are planning U.S. comp sales to be down 1%-3% over an outsized 21% U.S. open-only comp store sales increase last year. We're pleased with the start of the quarter with momentum from the March, April period continuing into May to date. I should note that our Q2 comp plan reflects this acceleration in comp trends we saw in the March, April period and into May. Next, we are planning total Q2 TJX sales in the range of $12.0 billion-$12.2 billion. In the Q2 , we're planning pre-tax margin in the range of 8.7%-9.1%. This guidance assumes approximately 250 basis points of incremental freight expense and about 80 basis points of incremental wage costs.
For modeling purposes, in the Q2 , we're currently anticipating a tax rate of 26.3%, net interest expense of about $12 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.18 billion. As a result of these assumptions, we're planning EPS of $0.65-$0.69 per share. Again, our Q2 and full year guidance implies in the back half of the year, U.S. comp sales will be up 4%-5%. Additionally, we expect pre-tax margin in the back half will be in the double digits. In closing, I want to reiterate that we are laser focused on driving sales and traffic, improving the profitability profile of TJX. We are in great position, both operationally and financially, to take advantage of the opportunities we see to grow our business.
Our strong balance sheet and financial foundation continue to give us great confidence in today's macro environment. Further, we continue to make investments to support our growth initiatives while simultaneously returning significant cash to our shareholders. Now, we are happy to take your questions. As we do every quarter, we're going to ask you that you please limit your questions to one per person and one part to each question to keep the call on schedule and so that we can answer questions from as many analysts as we can. Thanks. Now we will open it up for questions.
Thank you. It is now time for the question and answer session of today's call. If you would like to ask a question over the phone, please press star followed by one. Please make sure your phone is unmuted and record your name when prompted. If you wish to withdraw your question, you can press star two. Our first question comes from Paul Lejuez . Your line is open, sir.
Hey, thanks, guys. I'm curious how you would characterize the buying environment in home categories specifically versus apparel. Also love to hear how you would characterize the competitive environment you're operating in. Seems like some large retailers out there have some excess apparel. Curious if you're seeing any sort of a pickup in promotions that might be having an impact on how you think about pricing in certain categories. Thanks.
Yeah, no, great questions, Paul. First of all, the buying environment right now the markets are extremely loaded across the board. Good, better, best category, whether it's home, apparel, accessories, any of the other hard lines that we carry in the store that aren't just, you know, fall into those buckets. The markets are fairly loaded in terms of the buying environment. Home right now, as you can see, you know, we have a 7% decrease in the business in the Q1 , but that was against a 40%. We are still doing a lot of home business, very healthy. We will continue to buy at a steady pace, I would call it. We also buy in a number of different ways, whether it's in home or apparel, in terms of not just, you know, what's in the building now for shipping right now.
We also do packaways and things along those lines where we hold the goods for longer and, you know, and then as we've talked before, we do a small percent of our business where we do goods in advance. What's great, again, I go to this business model flexibility. It just allows us to tailor that to the sales levels. Also our home business within the full family stores and Marmaxx, etc., same thing applies there in terms of availability and how the merchants handle it. It's interesting you mentioned apparel, which, you know, from what we hear has been a little inconsistent out there. Our apparel business has been pretty strong, actually, here in the Q1 .
In fact, I spent an hour yesterday in our TJ Maxx store with one of our apparel general merchandise managers. We were talking about all the different opportunities, the availability, the opportunities on different aspects of the business that she has been feeling good about, not to mention that our business in that arena has been pretty damn strong. Feeling good on that front. What was the last piece of your question? Was it about promotions, I believe, in terms of what's in the environment and are we seeing retail promoted further aggressively? We are not, certainly not in the categories that we are in.
You know, when I say that, I would not interpret that as a blanket statement for other retailers that are in other ends of the business. Some of your more commodity-driven retailers that are in more home, you know, home cleaning supplies or maintenance supplies around the business. You know, I think that's a different ilk of product per se. Again, we're fashion-driven. So when you look at our fashion and brand-driven, the retailers that carry the like product and categories, if anything, we continue to watch their prices go up and promotions be decreased, which continues to favor our selective pricing retail strategy as we look out here, I think for a number of years. Good question.
Great call, Ernie. Thanks.
Thank you, Paul.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Boss. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks, and congrats on a nice quarter.
Thank you.
Ernie, could you speak to drivers of the improvement that you cited in March and April, and then the momentum that you cited in May to start the Q2 ? Are there any notable categories that you're chasing into? And just on the positive traffic at Marmaxx, are you seeing a new customer, increased trips from your existing customer? Any signs of trade down that you think we're seeing, just across the board, the March, April improvements and the momentum in May?
Yeah. No, great, Matt. Yeah, kind of the big picture, right, Matt, in terms of what's giving us these sales. You know, of course, we're looking at our teams who are always striving to exceed our sales plans. You know, we've been enjoying these amazing comps at Marmaxx. We were up against the 12% comp, right, the year before. You know, they see a 3% and they're going, "Gee, we wish we could do more." In this environment right now, obviously, we're very pleased with that as well as the profitability approach. Many of the categories that were, I guess, the way you'd look at this because we don't like to get too specific, but I can tell you this, like I just mentioned to Paul, we've been pleased with our apparel businesses given this environment.
I think part of that is, a year ago, you were getting more traffic and more shopping at our home businesses and less in apparel. I think what's happening in Marmaxx is we're now getting back some of the businesses that weren't as strong a year ago, which is great. I go back to the flexibility of the business model. It allows us to chase the trends that shift from year to year and season to season. That was a big part of our, I would say, the escalation in our Marmaxx business versus February. Not to mention that February can have a bit of a weather issue there. When we look out, what's really neat, Scott mentioned it, how we have the vast bulk.
You can't go by these inventory numbers because, by the way, you're looking at a spot in time, and if you look at those inventory numbers about what we used to carry two-year FY 2020, they're comparable. We have the vast majority of our Open to Buy for this whole year still available to us. When you're looking at $hundreds of millions here, remember, we're buying to a $50+ billion sales plan. We have so much Open to Buy to still chase the categories for Q3 that we think as we get closer in, that we should be driving harder.
Having said that, as you can tell by the way our business even coming into the Q2 , as you alluded to, we're happy with the way we're tracking. We have a lot of opportunity in some of those hot categories to buy close in because there is such good availability. I hope that answers your question. You know, I can't give you specific categories, but hopefully, that gives you the color. Scott, I think we'll jump in a little.
I think one of the things we saw a little different from the Q1 and into May that was different than frankly many years, probably have to go back half a decade, where we have, you know, approximately more than 75% of our stores at HomeGoods and Marmaxx, where they're in the what we'll call higher demos over 75,000 versus under 75,000. Those stores have done better than our lower demo stores. I think, again, we're positioned well, and Ernie can jump in because of the goods that we carry, you know, for a lot of those customers in the better and best goods. That again, that's continued into the start of the quarter. That's a bit of a change.
Again, you know, the majority of our stores are in those areas. Again, I think it bodes well for us. In a difficult and, you know, environment, maybe we're not immune, but a little more resilient in terms of the customers who might have a little more money in their pocketbook, you know, than the lower demos.
I'll just jump in, Matt, you know, because this has really triggered some of the discussions. We talked about this for years, I think. One of the benefits at TJX with TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, even with, you know, Sierra or online, is we trade very broadly, and we've always consciously said, we don't wanna segment a, you know, a moderate versus a better, versus even a higher end. We want to sell goods to everybody. I think the fact that we are across the board and particularly right now that we have higher demos, specifically in HomeGoods, in Maxx and Marshalls than some of the other retailers out there, I think that probably helps it all even out. You know, Scott was talking about the way some of these have trended.
I go back to we always have consciously, the merchants here, we have always gone after good, better and best. I think I mentioned it in my script a couple of times. It's a combination of our merchandise, our locations, you know, the store atmosphere, and our treasure hunt shopping experience certainly allows us to appeal to a broad customer base. Great color. Best of luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kimberly Greenberger. Your line is open.
Okay, great. Thanks so much, and, love to see the, margin inflection you guys are delivering here, both in the quarter and for the year. Well done to you on that.
Thank you.
I wanted to ask about the pricing initiative. It's obviously one of the drivers in this margin inflection story. Can you talk about where you have seen the most success in your pricing initiative, and are there any areas where you might be seeing some pushback on those pricing initiatives? I just wanted to follow up on an earlier thread, if we could, and sort of ask the question a different way. It seems like this is an environment ripe for trade down. We're starting to hear from some of the food retailers and I think others that they're starting to see signs of trade down.
I don't know, Ernie or Scott, if you've got data from, you know, years and years and years ago, maybe during periods of consumer stress in the past. How many quarters has it typically taken for you to see a traffic benefit from trade down, where shoppers might be trading down from higher cost retailers into, the TJX banners? Are there any signs of that happening yet? Thanks.
Yeah. It's great, Kimberly. You know, I'll let Scott start with that, and then we'll come back around to your first question.
Yeah. I'll just address the first part at a very high level and let Ernie go into the detail. I think from a big picture point of view, as I said, I think we said in the scripted remarks, is that our turns are better at all divisions than they were pre-COVID. We feel at a high macro level that, you know, that the merchandise is moving through, you know, with our price initiative. Our markdown rates similarly are lower than our pre-COVID. We're not seeing any of our big picture financial metrics, you know, in fact, they're all, you know, better.
You know, in terms of going back to your question on what happened, if you go back to the recession again, this is a long time ago, the recession in 2008, going into calendar 2009, we had two soft quarters. You know, that Q3, if you remember. You know, going back to Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2009 for us.
Right. Calendar 2000.
The Q1 of that year, we had a slight comp transaction increase, and then it accelerated from there on in. You know, hard to say it's exactly comparable. You know, two quarters of softness and then we started to, you know, rebound and get a lot. I believe we got a lot of trade down. We were renovating a lot of stores, and, you know, I'll let Ernie address it on other things that we did.
Yeah. I think you're spot on there, Kimberly, in terms of, you know, what dynamic takes place out there, where you get trade. We were getting trade down or trade over, I don't know what you'd call it, from some of the mass market guys, department stores. It was a little from every direction. This time, strangely enough, I don't know, again, I don't know if you call it trade down or trade over, is you get it from some e-com players too, because clearly, what's been neat is, our store visits. Visiting stores now has become a very appealing thing to a lot of customers as we have seen, right, from last year as COVID now, yes, it's out there, but customers love shopping our stores.
You do get that treasure hunt entertainment quotient, especially in a HomeGoods or in a Marmaxx, you know, TJ Maxx or Marshalls, where you can have really an eclectic value trip there that really, I think, allows. There's a reason for people to kind of trade down, as you would say, and you know, obviously driven by the value equation, which leads me to the, I guess, your first question. The pricing initiative, yeah, across the board. First of all, we have not had any pushback in any area. We've had, you know, a few items here or there, but we have been 95%+ 90% over that successful on the pricing initiative. Really, we're still in the beginning stages. I believe we're well ahead of...
First of all, our model allows us to do this. We're well ahead of probably other retailers on this front, but we also have a business model that in the categories that we're in, which are fashion-driven and brand-driven, which is allowing us to probably have the flexibility to do this more than other retailers could. We're super excited about it. As you can tell, our results are really panning out. It's not just the way we monitor the out-the-door retail that we're selling versus the out-the-door promotional retail of the other retailers, and we are still well below. Of course, part of that is because many retailers on the similar items have had to raise the retail that they're at, or promote it less.
We're really, I think, in a multi-year margin expansion opportunity driven by that. It sounds like that is because of the markon. It's also because our ticket now is going up, which is helping us with our other cost efficiencies within the business in terms of processing less units. We don't see that not continuing to happen for another few years anyway. You know, we're excited about it all seems to be connecting at once, and you can see from the last quarter in our outlook for the year, we're feeling really good. Where we think we can take the TJX margin over the next three years, we're feeling very confident about that as well.
Great to hear. Thank you. Welcome.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Binetti. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. Congrats on a great quarter, and thanks for all the detail here. I guess what I'm trying to figure out is you have the comps accelerating to 4%-5% in the back half, and you have obviously a ton of great merchandise, but help us connect the dots on how having great supply is enough evidence for you that demand will remain strong or strengthen to the trends you saw. Ernie, you said you feel really good about the long-term opportunity to take share here. Similar question. What do you see today for a business model that in a lot of ways works very close to need, getting inventories in very close to turning around.
What do you see today to know that this isn't just department stores or specialty retailers having over-ordered at a moment in time, for during holiday or for spring, and with some time left for fall or holiday, they can start to trim their orders, and we're back to a situation where there's not as much inventory more quickly than you thought. How do you know that we have duration here as you think about your comments on the long term?
Well, okay. Let's take, you know, your first question, which I think I'll let Scott actually talk. It's fairly clear as to why we're feeling those sales trends based on the way we're trending now when you look at the stats. Scott, you wanna talk about that?
Yeah. Again, I'll let Ernie answer why the
Yeah.
From long term, we keep it up.
Yeah.
You know, from a, you know, when you look at the H1 of this year, you know, as I call that, we're going against, you know, a total U.S. stack, you know, of 19% and, you know, have reflected, you know, close to that between the two quarters, obviously a zero to slightly less comp, you know, so a two-year stack of 19. We haven't reflected any increase, you know, on that stack because we're going against a three-year stack because we're going against a H2 that's five points lower than in the back half. And again, I'll let Ernie speak to the opportunity.
Well, if I could jump in on... Michael, so what that's saying is we're assuming that we're just doing the same things we're doing now, and we would trend right at 4%-5% based on the current trend.
The other thing again that we said, and I maybe could have been clearer on the script and in the press release, is that, you know, when we started the year, we gave guidance before the invasion, you know, that happened in Ukraine. We did see a bit of a slowdown across the globe pretty much for about three to four weeks. Even though with all the news of inflation and, you know, the gas price increases and everything else, we got back on to what would have been our trend that we did guide to, but which is what we're similarly using for the rest of the year. It hasn't seemed to impact, you know, the customer coming into our store.
We haven't said an improvement to that trend, but just, you know, just that same trend as Ernie just indicated over the rest of the year. I'll let Ernie speak to, you know, the inventory, and I think we always believe that we can flex into the categories, you know, for the back half of the year, take advantage of what we're currently seeing.
Yeah. Michael, our—you know, we're in a great position for Open to Buy for the back half. To your question, though, which I think I know what you're getting at, is what would make us think that this isn't just short term in terms of the duration, I think you're using that word, in terms of duration of this trend and, you know, how could we keep it going? What we're also strategically we look at the, as Scott was looking at the three-year track, and then we look at, you know, we study the market share opportunity based on store closures and what's going on with some of the other reports around us. We've really gotten pretty good at, in this environment, projecting, you know, what our trend would be like.
Again, pre-COVID, we had a pretty good handle on our trend. We're really going back to that trend, which went on for multi years pre-COVID. We're factoring in, you know, what we're seeing today, you know, and of course, availability is probably greater than it was ever pre-COVID now, because there's so much stop and go. I think it's hard for a lot of these vendors, because it's been more volatile than it was a few years ago to predict. If you'll factor that in and say, "Oh, overall, I'm gonna have a notch more exciting branded valued mix," if anything, we'd probably do better than where we typically trended it out.
Really, we're using past trends over multi years, where we're trending now on three-stack. We analyze that, and then we look at, most importantly, what's out there in terms of brands and how we're retailing the goods. By the way, our buying, here's one thing that's really happened during COVID, and I think I've talked about this, is we were able to learn a lot of things and for our merchants, which are very well connected during COVID, one advantage they've learned is how to communicate faster, whether virtually or you know, with the technology. I think there's been some neat faster moving approach to certain categories that I think we've actually improved on versus a few years ago. That really answers it.
That's really helpful, guys. Thanks so much.
Thank you.
Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Omar Saad. Your line is open.
Thanks for taking my question. Couple little follow-ups. Did I hear you guys say somewhere in the prepared remarks that you think the expense headwinds are moderating going forward? I just wanted to kind of clarify what you meant by that. Is that from a freight comment? Do you mean from here, or do you mean at some point in the future? I know it sounds like Europe was probably kind of the biggest kind of demand drag. Europe and the Ukraine war, rather, were the biggest demand drag in the quarter. Did the cold, wet spring was that also a factor in your business in the quarter? Thanks.
You know, hard to talk on weather patterns. It certainly didn't help early in the quarter. I would, you know, probably in the month of February, I think our trends were pretty much where they were. Once we got a couple of weeks, as I said, past, you know, the war that started, they were pretty much closer to being in line with what we thought. We also did see an uptick, though, not just in the U.S., but an uptick in both Canada and in Europe as well, both in mainland Europe and in the U.K. I think it was pretty much similar across all geographies. You know, in terms of
The first thing I'd say is in terms of the freight costs, which are certainly the largest, you know, deleverage, you know, our freight costs came in as planned for the Q1 . Every, you know, what we anticipated is what happened. Two, you know, as we look forward, the, you know, we have reflected, you know, at least what we're seeing, at this point in time as best we can determine for the rest of the year due to the freight. Because the primary difference at this point in time is the, diesel, you know, the oil costs going up. Certainly, there are additional costs to that, I'd say, you know, in the $40 million-$50 million range, which have been reflected in our plan.
Everything else that we see, we think we adjusted for the higher spot, you know, in the ocean freight, have higher demurrage costs and other things of which, you know, it's not that we see them going down, it's just we were going against some larger comps. When you talk about HomeGoods, we do see both a decrease in our deleverage and a decrease in our actual overall rates in the back half of the year. Some of that is, you know, a lot of that is attributed to a lot of what our teams have done, you know, starting to negotiate new contracts, you know, the mix of goods.
You know, we've done—they've done a nice job in, call it port utilization, moving, you know, the moving to the ports where there's less of an issue or where we have better, you know, whether it's East Coast and get a better benefit. I think some of that is more to what Ernie talked about going forward, where we do see the benefits of what we're gonna be doing to reduce costs. Some of that benefit we see going into 2023 and 2024 as a reduction in those costs, which we think will benefit our margins. You know, at the same time, what we're seeing, you know, is we think we've been doing things to reduce the volatility in the freight costs and at the same time, improve the service levels.
Also, you know, Ernie didn't probably talk to, but, you know, going forward, we've been dealing over the last two years with longer lead times that we typically have in our model. We still believe less than everyone else, but more than what we have. We are starting to see some benefit in having reduced lead times both domestically and international. Again, I think that will bode well for us being even more flexible and reacting, you know, going forward to the current trend. I think that's the biggest. The wage and the other costs are pretty much as planned. We don't-
Right.
What we reflected in the guidance is pretty much we have no change at this point. We think what we put in is more than sufficient to cover, you know, our future costs, at least for the time being.
Omar, just to make sure you understand to your point, it's a great question on the moderating, Scott. I think it's fair to say in Europe, for example, we're thinking because of what's going on with the pricing strategy and some of the headwinds moderating that we could approach potentially an 8% profit margin in the next three years there, which I think, as all of you know, is not where we've been. I think that would be significant inroad to profitability there. We have sat with that management team and looked at all these different aspects from pricing to, you know, the freight discussion Scott was just talking about and where we think that's going, understand the post-Brexit headwinds and that.
We think, you know, we can get from the six and change to approach 8% really in the next three years. Then in HomeGoods, which is obviously more directed by these freight issues in terms of a cost, I think that's where we're feeling we can get, you know, a chunk of that margin back, as Scott was saying, you know, in the nearer term. Feeling good about that, Scott.
Yeah. In the back half of the year, I think we have one more. Our peak deleverage in freight costs is gonna be the Q2 of this year, and that disproportionately impacts HomeGoods. The back half of the year, as we talked, it just with freight, and obviously, we do believe we're going against lesser sales, won't have the deleverage on the comps. Last year also, we had an abnormally low, given when we ran a 40 comp, we had an abnormally low markdown rate at HomeGoods as well. When we look at the back half, you know, we're gonna be significantly higher in our pre-tax margins at HomeGoods. You know, not necessarily at double digit, but, you know, significantly higher in the HomeGoods. I think that's a big change.
Got it. That's really helpful color. For what it's worth, your ability to forecast and manage your inflationary expenses, including freight, is certainly distinguishing yourself from-
Yeah. The other thing is.
You know, we've the teams have worked really hard, Omar. I'm glad you noticed that. You know, we're trying, as you could tell quarter by quarter, we try to talk about that in advance and really give all of you an idea, you know. You know, as you can see, we've been pretty consistently close to being right on the button on where we thought they were gonna be. The good news on this call, we're telling you, we think we know where some of these costs are going. We're gonna start leveraging, and we're gonna start getting these costs down as well as, at the same time, continuing to expand on our pricing strategy. You know, both are positive.
Yeah. Again, goes back to what Ernie was saying about the pricing strategy and the mark-on. We see continued strong mark-on both equal and better than planned for the back half of the year.
Correct.
that along with the, you know, the pricing strategy, you know, or the-
The average ticket.
The average ticket is. Is what's allowing us to raise our guidance. It's obviously not due to the sales because we're actually losing several pennies due to that, but we're more than offsetting it by those two components. That along with some expense management. Those are why we're raising, you know, the full year.
Thank you. Cheers.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. I guess my question is kinda Scott, to what you were just saying, U.S. comps coming down, the margins going up, clearly more of an issue of HomeGoods. I guess my question is bigger picture. Internally, how do you guys identify that the pricing initiatives that you're taking are not somewhat responsible for the negative comp reaction that you're seeing in the U.S. and specifically at HomeGoods? I'm just trying to understand how you kind of balance the pricing you're taking against potentially some of the lost revenue you might get. Just trying to understand how you guys think about that internally.
Well, I can go first.
Yeah. I'll just, I mean.
I'll, Ike, jump in, obviously.
Yeah. I mean.
Yeah, go ahead.
Again, we do not see any differential between the products that have had price increases or changes in prices versus the prices that didn't have it. I mean, that's, and we haven't seen any change in our markdown rates, our turns, and all that. All of the
Ike, we can see it by SKU.
Right.
We can see the actual SKU that where the price was adjusted versus a non-price adjusted SKU. We'll see no difference in turn, the rate the goods are selling at. In addition to our turns, we had it in the script somewhere, our turns are as good, if not better, than they were pre-COVID, when none of this was going on. Ultimately, that's a true measure of it. We have the qualitative studies that we're doing. When we do take these raising of retails, it's not in a vacuum. We're most often looking at what the other retailer has done in terms of them raising it. Remember, you might think, oh, we just raised the retail because that item or category has been raised around us.
You know, we're following, we're not leading. It's where we obviously might have been too low to begin with or whatever based on other people have already gone up or promoted less. But it's a great. By the way, great question. As you can imagine, we've been watching this all along. Then if you look at HomeGoods, they were just up against a 40%. It's as simple as they were up against a 40% comp. When they dropped a 7%, they were still on a 33% stack. They still have a 33% stack of growth.
Yeah. The thing is that they were remarkably similar last year at the home in Marmaxx and the home increase in HomeGoods, and they're remarkably similar this year, our home within Marmaxx. So, you know, it's similar result, you know, happening in both places, so.
Well, I guess. Sorry, just one quick follow-up. I guess what I'm just trying to understand, if the U.S. comp lowered outlook is not due to the pricing initiatives, then what are you attributing the weakness relative to kind of three months ago when you initially gave that guide? I guess that's really my question.
Really, well, first of all, part of that is we didn't remember. We did that before the war happened, before fuel spiked even more, and so that was all after the initial. When we talked about this, we were taking our best guess off a year where we had a huge growth, you know, so we're kind of off like a point or two, but given-
Yeah.
We never knew. You know, we were taking our best guess early as to where we would be, and then you had other dynamics happen around us that impacted it. The good news is, by the way, and which is why the other question earlier about, you know, we're still looking at a 4%-5% in the back half, which is a healthy sales increase. At plan which is a healthy sales increase driven by it's a little more normalized, you know, we're up against a what in the back half, Scott? Still a-
We're going down from a U.S. comp of 19% in the H1 to 14%.
Right.
It brings it to high end of 14.
Right.
It's closer to the similar high end where we were running pre-COVID for, you know, two out of three years.
Yeah, yeah.
It feels to us.
You know what happens, Ike, as part of this is if we didn't have that plan out there and we just went out with a lower plan to begin with and got even more than. You know, we try to take our best guess at the
Yeah.
at the conservative plan.
Yeah.
In this case, we're coming in higher on the profit and the sales, so it's kind of, you know, it's.
Yeah.
It's really good news overall.
It's kind of like what we said last year for multiple quarters when asked, "How are you gonna do against the comps?
Right.
You know, we didn't have a crystal ball on exactly how we were gonna do against the 40 comp.
Right.
Both whether it's in the home at Marmaxx. I mean, it's hard to get upset at a 33%, you know, three-year stack. We feel we've managed through it. Again, would have been a little-
By the way, others took a more pessimistic view on.
Right.
Forecast lower comps. Yeah, we might be missing by a shade, but we're still actually higher than some of the other comps.
Yeah. We didn't get a true run rate.
No, thank you. That's very helpful.
We didn't get a true run rate or at least a run rate that's, you know, now about two months in the making from a post-war period. All we're doing, it's not a crystal ball here, we're just holding at the high end that, you know, three-year stack.
Yeah. Very helpful. Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our final question of the day comes from Adrienne Yih. Your line is open.
Good morning. Very nicely done in such a tough environment. Ernie, my question for you is,
Yeah.
You're welcome. You deserve it. At Marmaxx, do you perceive that with positive traffic, that the comp was capped by a lack of inventory? Can you help us within HomeGoods, what categories within that are uptrending and downtrending, and how quickly can you shift the mix, A, within HomeGoods, but B, and more importantly, within Marmaxx out of home and into more apparel? Thank you.
Yeah, great question. First of all, no, it isn't lack of inventory in Marmaxx, actually. I think what's happened there is it's being driven more by a bit of, I would say, you know, traffic. It wasn't the normal up. That traffic would have been higher, I think, if we didn't have the, you know, maybe the fuel environment case and costs going up around us. That there was really just about, you know, we were thrilled with the 3% comp at Marmaxx against a, I think it was a 12% last year. Marmaxx is trending very strong, like the way they're starting the Q2 . To your question, although your last question, they're already flexing their home business. They've already flexed it, actually.
To your point, how fast they've already been doing it. They flex the businesses back and forth almost weekly, Adrienne. In terms of affecting the buying to those flexes, yeah, that takes about a month, I would say, between the buying and the planning and shifting the inventories. Why can we do it faster? We turn that business so fast that they're able to physically flex the store faster, and our shipping out of our DCs is, you know, well controlled and reactive. And we have a terrific planning and all so we have an entire team where their job is to massage the shipping by category, by department into the stores. When Scott gives you that inventory level, the bulk of that increased inventory is actually in our DCs. It's not in the stores.
Our planning and allocation teams are able to strategically decide how much of that do I ship when. You can imagine if home slows up a little relative to expectations, we just ship less, and we ship more in apparel. The Marmaxx has been doing a great job actually on that. In HomeGoods, the categories, I think your other question was, you know, we don't give which categories are high categories. The only thing I can tell you is to add some color to it, this will probably tell you something, is our HomeSense business, which has a lot of big-ticket items, has been super healthy. We're very happy with that business as we continue to look for opening more of those down the road.
Again, when you walk into a HomeSense, half the store, you know, has furniture and lighting and rugs and categories that I think traditionally, a lot have been bought online. What's great about our home business is customer gets to buy it and take it that day, which has been, I think, and a reason we will continue in HomeSense and in HomeGoods, continue to gain market share. We have such an advantage over the online home players. Those categories have been very good, and I think they'll continue to be very good. That's at a high level that I can mention there.
That's super helpful. It's nice to see the environment moving towards your model, so, and you guys executing so well. Good luck.
Thank you, Adrienne.
That was our last call. Thank you all for joining us today. We've enjoyed the discussion. We'll be updating you again on our Q2 earnings call in August. Take care, everybody.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You all may disconnect. Thank you for participating.