The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 19, 2019

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for staying on the line. Welcome to the TJX Companies third quarter fiscal 2020 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press star one. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded November 19, 2019. I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President of The TJX Companies, Inc. Please go ahead, sir.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thanks, Elan. Before we begin, Deb has some opening comments.

Deborah Felix
SVP of Human Resources, TJX Companies

Thank you, Ernie. Good morning. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including, without limitation, the Form 10-K filed April 3rd, 2019. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the TJX Companies, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction, or other use of the same, for profit or otherwise, without prior consent of TJX, is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript.

We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release in the investor section of our website, tjx.com. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are posted on our website, tjx.com, in the investor section. Thank you, and now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Good morning. Joining me and Deb on the call is Scott Goldenberg. Let me begin by saying that I am extremely pleased with our strong third quarter results. Our consolidated comp store sales increase of 4% was well above our expectations and over a very strong 7% increase last year. Earnings per share of $0.68 were also significantly above our plan. I am particularly pleased with the continued strength of our largest division, Marmaxx, as comp store sales increased 4% on top of a very strong 9% increase last year. Once again, we saw strength in both Marmaxx's apparel and home businesses. In addition, I want to highlight the terrific comp and traffic strength of our European business, which drove the 6% comp increase at TJX International.

In the third quarter, customer traffic was the primary driver of our comp store sales increases at each of our four major divisions. Clearly, our great values and eclectic mix of quality branded merchandise continue to attract shoppers around the world. Further, this quarter marks the 21st consecutive quarter of customer traffic increases at TJX and Marmaxx. With our excellent third quarter results, we are raising our full year outlook, which Scott will detail in a moment. Looking ahead, the fourth quarter is off to a solid start. We are seeing fantastic product availability across a wide range of brands, and we are in a great position to keep flowing fresh merchandise to our stores and online throughout the holiday season. Longer term, we are excited about our potential to keep gaining market share in continuing the successful growth of TJX in the U.S. and internationally.

Before I continue, I'll turn the call over to Scott to recap our third quarter numbers.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Thanks, Ernie, good morning, everyone. As Ernie mentioned, third quarter consolidated comparable store sales increased 4%, which was over a 7% increase last year and well above our plan. Customer traffic was up overall and was the primary driver of our comp sales increases at each of our four major divisions. As a reminder, our comp sales increases exclude the growth from our e-commerce businesses. Third quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.68, up 8% over the prior year's adjusted $0.63, and well above our expectations. Now I'll recap our third quarter performance by division. We were very pleased that every division delivered a comp increase at or above their second quarter comp over strong results last year. Further, each division exceeded their profit margin plan. We are seeing good momentum at all our divisions heading into the holiday season.

Marmaxx comp sales increased 4% over a very strong 9% increase last year and were driven by customer traffic. Once again, both our apparel and home businesses were strong, which points to Marmaxx's ability to keep raising the bar. Segment profit margin increased 10 basis points. As we begin the fourth quarter, we are excited about the initiatives we have planned to keep driving sales and traffic during the holiday season and beyond. HomeGoods comp increased 1% in the third quarter over a strong 7% increase last year. We are very pleased with the HomeGoods two-year stack comp increase of 8%, which is a significant improvement compared with the 2% two-year stack comp increase in the first half of the year.

Segment profit margin was down 40 basis points, primarily due to expense deleverage on the 1% comp. Customers love HomeGoods, and we are very confident in its enduring appeal for consumers and the fundamental strength of this division. TJX Canada's third quarter comp growth of 2% was over a 5% increase last year. Adjusted segment profit margin, excluding foreign currency, was down 180 basis points, primarily due to transactional foreign exchange pressure, higher supply chain costs, and lower merchandise margin. We are excited about the holiday initiatives we have planned in Canada, and longer term, are convinced we will continue to gain market share in that country through our three Canadian chains. At TJX International comps grew a very strong 6% in the third quarter. Again, this quarter, we saw strength throughout our U.K. regions and across Europe. In Australia, comp performance continued to be strong.

Adjusted segment profit margin, excluding foreign currency, was down 20 basis points versus last year. We remain very pleased with the sharp execution of this organization and the terrific results despite the uncertainty of Brexit and the challenging European retail environment. I'll finish with our investment in Familia, which we detailed in our press release. We are excited to have an ownership position in a profitable off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions in Russia. We like Familia's strong financial profile and management team. This investment allows us to gain exposure in a new region of the world with an established off-price retailer that has significant growth potential. We're always looking for ways to increase value for TJX's shareholders and see this as a good use of cash with an attractive return profile.

Let me turn the call back to Ernie, and I will recap our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2020 guidance at the end of the call.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thanks, Scott. I'd like to highlight some of the opportunities we see to keep driving sales and traffic in the fourth quarter. We are set up extremely well to offer consumers exciting, compelling brands for their holiday gift-giving. We expect our stores to be as branded as ever across most families of business this holiday season. We are seeing fantastic product availability in the marketplace, our buyers are taking advantage of it throughout numerous categories for a wide range of quality good, better, and best brands. We expect to be flowing fresh merchandise to our stores and online even later this year and multiple times a week throughout the holidays. Regardless of the number of shopping days this holiday season, I am confident consumers will get their shopping done and visit us for exciting gifts for everyone on their lists.

In addition, post-holiday, we will remain focused on being a destination for gifts throughout the year. Third, we feel great about our holiday marketing campaigns that started airing earlier this month. I hope you have had a chance to see them. Across our divisions, our campaigns are bold in order to distinctly position us as the shopping destination for inspiring gifts at amazing prices. We also are leveraging our campaigns across digital and social media platforms. Each of our four major divisions will be actively marketing every week throughout the holiday season. We're planning to capitalize on the holiday season to promote our loyalty programs. These programs are important vehicles for us to continue to engage with customers and encourage more frequent visits and cross-shopping. Next, we believe our stores provide consumers with a convenient and efficient way to shop this holiday season.

Our off-mall locations make our stores very easy to access. Once in our stores, shoppers are able to scan an extremely wide selection of merchandise across multiple categories in a very timely manner. Again, we will have something for everyone's shopping gift list in store and online, where they can shop us 24/7. Lastly, we are well-positioned with our gift cards and believe that many consumers will be looking to use them right after the holidays. We feel great about our initiatives and our plans to transition our stores post-holiday and are confident that our fresh and exciting selection of merchandise will entice shoppers when they visit us. As to e-commerce, we were very happy with the launch of marshalls.com in September. We are excited to offer consumers the convenience of shopping both Marshalls and TJ Maxx online whenever they want.

As with tjmaxx.com, we are differentiating marshalls.com's offering from our Marshalls stores to give consumers a compelling reason to shop both channels. In both our U.S. and U.K. online businesses, we like the growth and metrics that we are seeing. In closing, we feel great about our momentum heading into the fourth quarter, which is off to a solid start. Long term, we are confident that we have a significant opportunity to continue growing our customer base and gaining market share around the world. We believe the growth we have seen in Gen Z and millennial customers across all of our major divisions for the last several years bodes well for our future. As always, we remain laser-focused on executing our off-price business model.

We believe our unwavering commitment to offering consumers excellent values on great brands and fashions, combined with our treasure hunt shopping experience, will continue to be a winning formula for TJX. Now I'm going to turn the call over to Scott to go through our guidance, and then we'll open it up for questions. Scott?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Thanks, Ernie. Before I provide our detailed guidance, I want to spend a moment and update you on tariffs. Based on the tariffs in place now, we have started to see some pressure on our margins from the goods we see directly sourced from China. This includes the merchandise that we are committed to and the changes in tariff legislation that was announced after our Q2 call. For Q4, our guidance now includes the negative impact from these tariffs. Now moving on to our Q4 guidance. We expect earnings per share to be in the range of $0.74-$0.76, a 9%-12% increase over the prior year's $0.68. We're modeling fourth quarter consolidated sales in the range of $11.7 billion-$11.8 billion. For comp store sales, we're assuming growth of approximately 2%-3% on a consolidated basis and at Marmaxx.

Fourth quarter pre-tax profit margin is planned in the 10.4%-10.6% range versus the prior year's 10.6%. We're anticipating fourth quarter gross profit margin to be in the range of 27.6%-27.8%, versus 27.8% last year. We're expecting SG&A as a percentage of sales to be approximately 17.1% versus 17.2% last year. For modeling purposes, we're currently anticipating a tax rate of 25.8%, $5 million of net interest expense, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.22 billion. Moving on to our full-year fiscal 2020 guidance. We are raising guidance for fiscal 2020 earnings per share to be in the range of $2.61-$2.63. This would represent a 7% increase over the prior year's adjusted $2.45. This EPS guidance now assumes consolidated sales in the $41.2 billion-$41.3 billion range, a 6% increase over the prior year.

This guidance assumes a 1% negative impact due to translational FX. We are expecting a comp increase of approximately 3% on a consolidated basis. We expect pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 10.4%-10.5%. This would be down 30 basis points-40 basis points versus the adjusted 10.8% in fiscal 2019. We're planning gross profit margin to be in the range of 28.2%-28.3%, compared with 28.6% last year. We're expecting SG&A as a percentage of sales to be approximately 17.8% versus 17.8% last year. For modeling purposes, we're currently anticipating a tax rate of 25.7%, net interest expense of about $12 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.23 billion. Now to our full-year guidance by division.

At Marmaxx, we now expect comp growth of 3%-4% on sales of $25.4 billion-$25.5 billion, and segment profit margin in the range of 13.4%-13.5%. At HomeGoods, we are planning comps to increase 1% on sales of approximately $6.3 billion and segment profit margin to be approximately 10.4%. For TJX Canada, we expect a comp increase of 1%-2% on sales of approximately $4 billion. Adjusted segment profit margin, excluding foreign currency, is expected to be in the range of 12.3%-12.4%. At TJX International, we now expect comp growth of 5%-6% on sales of $5.5 billion. Adjusted segment profit margin, excluding foreign currency, is expected to be approximately 4.9%. It's important to remember that our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year assumes that currency exchange rates will remain unchanged from the levels at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

In closing, we look forward to giving you fiscal 2021 guidance on our Q4 earnings call in February. We are happy to take your questions. To keep the call on schedule, we're going to ask that you please limit your questions to one per person. Thanks, we will now open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. Our first question today is from Alexandra Walvis.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. My question is on the investment that you made in Russia. Can you talk a little bit about the decision-making process behind that? Why this market in particular? Where do you see the growth potential? How are you thinking about the sort of build versus buy when thinking about new retail formats? Thanks so much.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Sure, Alexandra. The first thing is, this, like anything we approach, we felt this was a terrific opportunity to become a strategic investor and a business that is pretty much what our off-price apparel and home fashions business is. It was a great opportunity for us. It allows us, as you look down the road, a strong financial profile where we see a slightly accretive addition to our earnings beginning in fiscal 2021. When you boil it down, one of the things that really hit us when we were first engaged with looking at Familia is the DNA of that business is very similar to. The way they approach the business, very similar to what we do. You have a strong financial profile where they have profitable margins, low-cost structure.

They have significant store growth potential with more than 275 stores today, including nearly 50 stores opening in 2019. You start adding all of these aspects up. By the way, we did a tremendous amount of due diligence. Scott Goldenberg, Doug Mizzi, who's our Senior Executive Vice President, and we had Glen Brenner. We had a whole team that really engaged, did multiple visits. We had Bank of America involved advising us, PwC. We really were highly engaged on all facets of it. A strong management team. I'll tell you one thing that to the core, which was important to us, is the relationships that we established during the process. We could tell that their merchant teams were compatible with our merchant teams.

In fact, they have set themselves over there, with 100 buyers already in place and a strong heads of buyers, and which we love to see because we're very merchant focused. Everything in that model over there as they continue to gain market share in Russia, just screams out that it's very much a nice TJX relationship and investment on our part. Scott, I don't know if you.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah. Just to echo a few things. Ernie talked about important stuff in merchandising. A lot of the families of businesses are similar, but there's a lot of categories that they still can both expand and new ones to go in. Both a lot of great opportunities ahead. Also as a finance guy there, we love their strong balance sheet, their operating cash flow. They finance all of their working capital and store growth from internally generated funds. Love that characteristic about it and still have room to pay a dividend. Love the financial characteristics. Just in terms of Russia, Ernie mentioned the number of stores. There's a lot of white space to open up, and they are really the only effectively off-price retailer in Russia.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Alexandra, they're expecting to add a similar number of stores over the next three to five years, which is very exciting. Just so you understand, as we move forward, Scott Goldenberg is actually going to be a board observer, and Doug Mizzi will have a seat on their board. Doug Mizzi, again, who's our Senior Executive Vice President who oversees Canada and Australia. We will have a continued strong relationship in terms of our investment.

Alexandra Walvis
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Splendid. Thanks so much, guys.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Matthew Boss.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks, and congrats on a nice quarter and a pretty tough tape.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you, Matthew.

Speaker 11

Ernie, I guess, strongest two-year stack in seven years at Marmaxx, again, despite the highly competitive and promotional backdrop that we're hearing from other retailers. Can you speak to some of the wins that you're seeing across both apparel and home that's really driving this consistent momentum, and anything you'd particularly highlight as opportunity as we look into the fourth quarter and holiday?

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Definitely, Matthew. The two-year stack was strong. I would like to say, which of course I would do with the teams here, not as strong as maybe it looks on the two-year stack because the last year number in Marmaxx was up against a relatively weak number the third quarter before, in full transparency. Having said that, yes, even if we added all three years, we've done extremely well in our third quarters here. These past two quarters particularly have been driven, I think, by a branded content and opportunistic, as I mentioned in the beginning of the script. What we'd like, Matthew, is the availability across a lot of good, better, best brands across numerous families of business in the store has allowed us, and it's really started last year in that third quarter.

We've been able to go after a lot of brands within all the different families of business and in apparel particularly. Home has been, and yes, our home business has been very healthy as well. I think our teams have done a really good job there of going after the category trends there. Less about the brands in our home business and more about the category trends, which I think have been integral to why we've been putting increases on top of the increases. You're talking about Marmaxx. Ironically, one of the things that I just mentioned in terms of that branded content and the branded push we've been having, we feel it's important in every one of the divisions in TJX to keep us differentiated in every geographic area that we're in.

Marmaxx has certainly been the epitome of that, I would say, in the last quarter. Europe has really had a similar push and more availability on that front and great execution on the categories there in apparel and home as well. As we go to fourth quarter, I think that was kind of the second part of your question. What we're looking for there, because the branded content has been so good in a lot of the apparel areas. Oh, by the way, accessories, it's been excellent too for us. Women's accessories as well. Those areas tend to be strong giftable areas for holiday. We see the momentum. We've made a lot of the buys for holiday in those areas, obviously, by this point in time, and we have great visibility into that more branded than ever content going into fourth quarter. Great question.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah, Matt, the only thing I would add to what Ernie said is just like we've seen for when business is very good and we have the higher comps, is the consistency of the comps across almost all of the regions in the United States and the consistency among all of our types of stores, the suburban, exurban, et cetera. I think it's the consistency of the comps as well that bodes well for lifting the overall comp.

Speaker 11

Great. Scott, maybe just on SG&A. While I know you're not providing formal guidance today, just any puts and takes to consider on the expense line as we look ahead, I think would be really helpful.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah. Again, no real changes to what we've talked about before. I mean, the supply chain cost both for this year and going forward is the biggest one, mostly having to do with building out our infrastructure investments. No real changes. Wage, all the other ones are similar. Wild cards obviously are tariffs, FX, et cetera. The only other one I would talk about would be probably a little better than what we thought is freight costs due to some of our own strategies that we put in place, plus the renewal when we had some of our contract renewals that we said would happen at the end of the third quarter. We're a little better than we would have thought on some of the inbound freight and some of the outbound freight in terms of what we've been trending.

I think positive news there, but overall nothing significantly different than what we've talked about and elaborated on last quarter.

Speaker 11

That's great.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Matt, I'm going to circle back also to your question because one other thing hit me on the two-year stack in Marmaxx. One other thing they've done that's been really terrific, I think I've discussed this with many of you in the past, is the planning organization there that flows the merchandise. We've been chasing a trend. The buying team and the planning team have just done a great job at staying on top of a sales trend by region of the country and by family of business. Scott was talking about how the regions have all been healthy. Sales by category have been widespread. The planning area in Marmaxx, I think, has done an outstanding job of being able to flow to the sales above plan, because that's not always easy. It's very complicated.

I give our buying teams in Marmaxx and our planning teams a lot of credit to be able to chase a sales trend that was clearly higher than what we planned it to be.

Speaker 11

That's great color. Best of luck.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Kimberly Greenberger.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. Thank you so much. Very nice quarter. I just wanted to ask about tariffs, Scott, if I could. It seems like the fourth quarter gross margin guidance, which does include tariff impact, is for sort of flat to 20 basis points of decline in gross margin. It seems really quite modest. Were there some remediation efforts you were able to put into place? I guess I just would have thought maybe there would be a little bit more pressure, but you guys seem to be managing through it very nicely so far.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

I mean, I'll start and then Ernie will jump in. Overall in the fourth quarter, some of what we've been seeing both in the third and fourth quarter, well, third quarter and what we think in the fourth quarter is we had improvement in markdowns due to the better sales in the third quarter. We see some opportunity there in the fourth quarter as well. We have seen better buying as well as we move through the third and fourth quarter. Tariffs, we did have more tariff expense due to some of the changes in tariff legislation, but mostly the bigger piece had to do with as we committed to goods, there were more tariffs that we had to spend. We also, compared to the freight costs, as I mentioned just earlier, have come down slightly.

There's less freight costs in the fourth quarter than what we would have seen in the first, certainly the first three quarters of the year. Yeah, the margins are planned up and would have been up a bit more even as we still have some FX pressure, primarily internationally. Yes, I think there has been better buying. Ernie, you can talk to that a bit.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Kimberly, a great question. One of the benefits that we've had is we believe that a lot of vendors have been bringing goods in earlier this year, which has been advantage of us, and it's helped us in the third quarter to mitigate tariffs as such. The issue, unfortunately, going forward into 2020 is more challenging than that because we don't have as much visibility as we move forward into next year as to whether or not we can keep mitigating like we have. It remains to be seen what happens with the vendor and competitor pricing, consumer demand, potential tariff pass-throughs. We have so much of fiscal 2021 that is not committed to versus currently where we have the visibility for this fourth quarter. So much of next year, we have just a small portion committed to that.

It's kind of up in the air, and we're a little suspect as to what we can mitigate for next year. As well as we also unfortunately know that on some of our direct imports, which in the scheme of things isn't a huge number, we know we are getting hit with tariffs on those. I have to tell you that for next year, it's a bit of a wait and see, again, until we start to get a little closer to that time period and see what happens with the vendors.

Speaker 12

That's great color, Ernie. Does your commentary, particularly regarding vendors and their behavior with bringing goods in early, does that relate to your comments at the end of Q2 or on the Q2 call where you talked about the product availability out in the marketplace as basically some of the best that you've ever seen? Does that remain the case?

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

I think that has been a help to the degree I would say it is not a major driver, though. When we go to our European markets, Canada, here, all the markets have had way more goods, and it's in categories where, it's like, yes, some where tariffs are and a lot where tariffs aren't. That would tell us that it's just a general availability is through the roof. I still think some of that, Kimberly, relates to the e-com businesses around the board because the e-com business of, I think, many have been off their projections on sales, it's less the department stores, it's more the e-com business creating more spill off of merchandise. I do believe a little component of that might have been tariffs coming in early. It's beyond what that number would've been. Go od question.

Speaker 12

Fantastic. Thanks, Ernie.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Paul Lejuez.

Speaker 13

Hey, thanks, guys. Can you talk about the performance of Homesense and what you might be seeing in terms of cannibalization of the HomeGoods concepts, where those two go head-to-head in the same market. Also curious how you're thinking now that you've got 20-something of these Homesense stores about the best location for Homesense and where it should play relative to HomeGoods in the market, and any early view on how many might be opening next year. Thanks.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Sure. Paul, I'll start, and then Scott can talk to maybe next year's stores. In terms of the cannibalization, first of all, our Homesense sales had tapered off for a little bit, weren't as strong as we had hoped. Part of that is some of the categories that were weak in HomeGoods were also weak in Homesense. That was holding us back. In terms of the actual transfer sales, we've seen in total about where we planned it to be. What it is the nearby stores have actually had a little less transfer, but stores a little further away than the nearby HomeGoods, because Homesense draws from a large radius, as does HomeGoods, by the way, more so than a Marmaxx. It was hitting some of the other stores.

In total, we ended up with almost identical to what our transfer sales have been planned at the cannibalization. I would say on that front, pretty much on plan. We, in terms of store openings, Scott, do you wanna talk about where we're at?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah, we really, Paul, haven't given any guidance at this point in terms of any of the store openings we're doing next year. Still gonna have a healthy number of both overall stores for HomeGoods and all that. I would say our new store openings and just general thing about Homesense, HomeGoods is pretty much on our pro forma or better, we like what we're seeing both on our HomeGoods stores. Homesense stores, I think there was still work to be done. One thing we had not seen when we were contemplating the model was the amount of wage, freight, and certainly in tariff impact, as Ernie has mentioned, a little more impacts the home business. I think those were pressures that were non-contemplated when we first created the model.

Having said that, a lot of work has been done to, and we've seen the results of improving the operational side of the business in terms of some of the expense management has continued to get better. Our margins are continuing to prove and I think still work to be done, but it's all moving in the right direction. I think the differentiation and all that is what we would have expected. As Ernie said, I think we still think we have a lot of room we can improve on the sales and still on operating. Overall, feel pretty good about, I think as we've seen recently and just the home businesses in those categories were certainly a little bit hit harder in Homesense than even the general HomeGoods business.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Correct.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

That's it.

Speaker 13

Got it. Just want to follow up on Familia. Do you have an option to buy a larger stake at a certain price as part of this initial investment? Thanks.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah, we're not gonna comment on any of the details. I think over time we could buy more, but not gonna go into any further at this point. Obviously, we like what we've done, and that's about all we'll comment on now.

Speaker 13

Thanks, guys. Good luck.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Kate Fitzsimons.

Speaker 14

Yes, good morning. I'll add my congratulations as well.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Speaker 14

My question is on inventory. Yeah. Could you just speak to your overall inventory strategies? Inventories were up 13%. Should we think about a greater pack-away number pushing that inventory balance higher year-over-year, just given what you are seeing with the buying environment and up 9% on a per store basis. There was a mention of later flows in your prepared commentary. Just any color on how you're thinking about product flow plans for the fourth quarter and how we should think about that inventory would be great. Thank you.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Sure, Kate. Very good question. There's a few different reasons why we're very comfortable with where we are. First thing is the inventories are up. Yeah, there's a little bit more pack-away. That is not the driver, though. It is not that big of a number in the scheme of things. Part of this is, we had a couple of years where actually our sales were ahead of our inventory growth. We are playing a little bit of a catch up there. The number one reason is we're chasing the trend of our business with a market that has been absolutely loaded with goods that we want to take advantage of. This is really the time when the ultimate opportunistic approach at TJX really comes through.

This is like prime time for us to say, "Okay, we are going to Because we logistically are set up, we're one of the few retailers who can flow goods to the stores differently than we own them in the DCs." What we're able to do right now is even some of it wasn't a pack-away. We're able to buy very aggressive if we think the deal at the right cost and at the right retail provides an exciting deal, chase the trend. The trend in Marmaxx specifically has just been so strong that you'd want to keep doing that, obviously, and that's a big driver of that inventory number you're talking about.

This allows us to really try to maximize the sales as we go into fourth quarter off of a strong, as you heard about our two-year stack that I think Matt had asked about back in the beginning. It allows us to continue to propel for a healthy two-year stacks as we go forward. If we end up a little long in some things, some of these goods could become pack-away because we bought it so advantageously. It's really the ultimate chasing of the business trend. Also, there's a little of the compressed holiday selling window that's entering into play. I think that's a piece that said, "Hey, we're better off having this little bit of a reserve inventory to kind of drive the top line." Again, start with the fact that we're able to buy these goods at advantageous costs.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah. The only thing I'd add to it, Ernie, is that so we liked what we did last year with a little bit more enhanced flow. This year, I think we took a step above that. It did cause the third quarter ending inventories and to be higher. It's not affecting our operational of the business. This would be obviously more staged in our distribution centers, waiting to be flowed out to the stores. As you can see in our third quarter, as we talked about, our per store inventories were where we wanted to be, particularly at Marmaxx, and our markdown rates came down. We feel good about the overall management and go forward.

Obviously, I think it will come down, but there'll still be more pack-aways likely at the end of this year when we end the year than what we had in the prior year.

Speaker 14

Great, guys. Best of luck for holiday.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Jay Sole.

Speaker 15

Great. Thank you. A lot of retailers talked about how maybe August was okay, but September was really tough because of weather. It just sounds like from the comp at Marmaxx, that you didn't see that kind of trend. Was that the case? Can you talk about maybe what you saw by month and why maybe you weren't impacted by warm weather or whatever was going on in September?

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Jay, we don't break it down by month. What I can tell you is we had a fairly consistently healthy quarter. It wasn't one of these quarters where it was up and down. It was just pretty consistent. Again, we don't give breakdowns by month, but it was consistent.

Speaker 15

Got it. Maybe if you can just talk a little bit more on the transportation cost. I know you sort of said it came out a little bit better. Is it possible to dimensionalize how transportation cost when you renewed those contracts changed on a year-over-year basis, just maybe directionally?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah. I'm not gonna unpack it all, the biggest piece for us was on our inbound rates were significantly less than what we had planned. Again, there was a step down on the outbound rates, but less to do with the negotiations, with just a bit of a natural drop down on what those increases were. That was the biggest driver. Fuel costs have been not a big factor. I think one of the things we're not gonna go too much into, overall the rest of the rates, whether they were ocean rates or intermodal rates, still have low to mid-single digit increases, so no real change there. The one wild card for next year, which is to be determined, is the ocean freight.

In ocean freight, there's going to be some requirements for low sulfur fuel to be determined when that's gonna go into effect, but it could have some higher rates on the ocean freight next year. Overall, it was the truckload deliveries on the inbound that were the biggest savings, and that's really what it is. That's it, Jay, on that.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Omar Saad.

Speaker 16

Thank you. Great quarter. Thanks for all the information. Ernie, I wanted to ask you a follow-up to one of the comments you made about the inventory availability at the end of the quarter being really good. You made a comment that a lot of it is coming from the e-commerce channel. I'm trying to understand exactly what that dynamic is. Is it traditional retailers, e-commerce businesses that are overstocked and those DCs are ending with too much inventory, or are you seeing it from pure e-commerce businesses? Maybe help unpack what you meant behind that. I would appreciate it.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Omar, across all fronts. What you have is you have your vertical, and here's the good news, it's fairly widespread. You have your vertical e-com players, so brands that have their own e-com site. By the way, I would lump all e-com players into the challenge. In their defense, predicting need, remember, almost all the goods they're selling on their websites are imported goods with long lead times. They are trying to predict e-com sales by category and item. Not so easy to do. They don't have all the years of history that a brick-and-mortar retailer would have, and it's always been a little bit more volatile for those guys to try to predict their needs relative to, and that's on a category or an item, and on their needs.

That whole challenge applies really to the vertical e-com players as well as the guys that have brick-and-mortar and e-com sites, because you're still running into a challenge of being long on certain categories because the sales just haven't been what you thought. By the way, doesn't mean they don't have categories where the sales were better than they thought, and they didn't have enough. In total, it's just because there are so many e-com players now, spread out across the board, it has yielded, from whether the vertical guys or the multi-channel guys, by the way, that applies to whether it's accessory categories or apparel categories, hard lines. I would say there's a growing chunk of our off-price buys are coming from that channel, those are the reasons.

If you spent a week in one of those offices there in e-com, you'd see where you're placing goods so far ahead on a website and trying to predict the need. It's just very difficult. Most of them are in a high growth pattern, which adds to the volatility of their ability to project.

Speaker 16

This is really helpful insight, Ernie. Thank you very much. That's really helpful, Ernie. Thanks. Good luck.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mark Altschwager.

Speaker 17

Great. Good morning. Thank you. You had a nice change in trajectory on the HomeGoods operating margin in the quarter. You raised your guidance there for the year. I was hoping you could just talk a little bit more about the drivers to that performance and the upside to your expectations. How should we be thinking about the margin trajectory on HomeGoods from here?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

I'll jump in, Mark, for a second on that. I think similar to what Ernie's just saying about the buying environment, I think HomeGoods has taken advantage all year, particularly in the third quarter, of buying better than what was planned, even despite having, as Ernie indicated, higher tariff impacts. Certainly a lot better buying. We were able to leverage some on the markdown line, even with the one comp. Some of that's a technical opportunity versus the prior, but nonetheless, we controlled the inventories very well. Merchandise margins were certainly a big factor there. As we said, also, when we did the first call at the beginning of the year, that the supply chain costs, and the freight costs would be more first half weighted.

In the supply chain piece of it was going to be a bigger impact in the first two quarters because we cycled the opening of the Carteret in New Jersey distribution opening in the third quarter, so started to see that drop a bit. That was a piece of it, and the freight costs are going to be lower in the back half of the year than the first half. Those three components made up the rest. I would say HomeGoods did a particularly good job on the lower than planned comp of mitigating and doing a great job of expense management. That was substantially better than what we had thought.

The combination of the expense management, the lower change in the supply chain and the freight, and the better merchandise margin, and due to better buying primarily, was the difference between the third quarter and the first half of the year.

Speaker 17

Thank you. Then on HomeGoods, I know you had talked about some of the inventory mix being a drag on that comp last quarter. Do you feel like you've worked through some of the suboptimal inventory as we head into the fourth quarter?

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Yeah, Mark, I would say we actually still have work to do on some of those areas and departments that we have not been happy with the execution. Stay tuned on that. I think we have a lot of work to do. We have other areas that I think have actually picked up, and that's where you're getting the sequential improvement. In those other areas, I would say we're still not happy with where we are, and hoping more by the first quarter that we would have those more straightened out. Yeah, still more work to be done. I'm very happy with the way we're entering the quarter in total, in terms of better momentum than where we were six months ago, not really specifically in those categories.

Speaker 17

Thank you, and best of luck.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson.

Speaker 18

Thanks. Good morning. Do you see any opportunities to take price to offset some of the tariff pressure next year? Or should we model tariffs offsetting any easing of freight costs as we look to fiscal 2021?

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Hi, Lorraine. Actually, we do not see that at all for next year. In terms of tariffs, we haven't seen any retails moving in the environment. We are going to be the last retailer to ever do any retail adjustments, and we have not seen in any of the categories an ability on our part, because we haven't seen it in the competition. We haven't seen any retails, strangely enough, going up. Some of the categories where, and specifically in the home area, where the tariffs have hit, are actually areas that are under pressure in terms of value, and they're some of the less likely areas that we could actually raise retails. By the way, we would like to. I wish that was the case.

As a result, when you go to next year, again, this is why we are apprehensive about saying that we can mitigate the tariffs, because it could be a challenge based on the lack of visibility that we have right now. It's just having us on the standby-to-standby mode. We really don't want to commit to being able to mitigate, at least not today.

Speaker 18

Do you have any insight or guardrails around how next year's earnings growth could look in those scenarios?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah, I'll jump in, Lorraine. Yeah. I think basically, since, as Ernie has said, we haven't bought the vast majority of the goods, it's too early to tell. There's just too much volatility in what could or could not happen with the pricing. We'll comment obviously on it when we get to the next call, when three-plus months from now we should have a better indication of what we'll have at least a meaningful amount of buying having taken place. Not the answer you probably want to hear, but we're not going to really go through any scenarios or give any guidance at this point in time.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from John Kernan.

Speaker 8

Good morning, guys, and congrats on all the momentum as we head into next year.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Speaker 8

Scott, a question on SG&A. You've made quite a few investments in supply chain this year, both on the SG&A line as well as CapEx. Just wondering how that affects your ability to leverage SG&A as we go into next year and just how we should thematically think about SG&A as a source of long-term margin upside.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Again, not commenting too much about next year guidance. Supply chain, we've spent a lot of money. A lot of it's in remodeling our stores, opening new stores, opening new distribution centers. In the short term to medium term, the growth in adding new distribution centers is still a deleverage point for us. It should be a similar amount, and that's about all we're gonna say. We're not really gonna answer the longer-term piece of it at this point. I don't want to comment on what may or may not happen several years from now. At the moment, I would just say, same thing I said on the last call, looks to be a similar amount of deleverage, at least just specifically talking about supply chain.

John Kernan
Analyst, Cowen

Any color you can give us on CapEx in terms of where the direction into next year? Obviously stepped up a bit this year, I think related to some of those supply chain investments.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Again, too early to make the call. We've stepped up our capital this year $200 million, but it looks to be, at this point, less than what we thought. We think our cash position will be a bit better than what we thought. That's really due to a combination of a lot of factors. I think CapEx probably would not be that much different into what we had planned it for this year. I think this year will end up less, which means it'll just be a timing of capital moving for projects that didn't get done this year into next year. We're not gonna give a specific number. I would say this year's number is a good guide to what we would do next year.

Speaker 8

Excellent. Thank you. Again, congrats.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Well, we do have time for one final question. Our last question today is from Bob Drbul.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thanks. Just was wondering if you could comment on TK Maxx in the U.K. and what's happening there. I'm not sure if you gave this, but the mix for the Russian investment in terms of the merchandise mix vendor overlap in terms of apparel, just sort of how that shakes out versus where you guys are today. Thanks.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Sure, Bob, on the TK Maxx business, we couldn't be happier, obviously. The one thing we, in the earlier release, in the script that we can't highlight as much as I'd like to talk right now with you, is just the market share that we keep capturing. It's just been off the charts as you start actually looking at what's happening in retail over there. Again, I would go back to our teams have just done a fantastic job, and that goes from every portion, from their logistics, from their flow and their planning area there, similar as to what I mentioned at Marmaxx earlier. It's not easy to drive a sales trend to those comps when you, again, as you know culturally in this company, we plan conservatively, and they are right now running strongly ahead of what the conservative plans are.

That requires a buying team, and a merchandise planning team, and a store execution and logistics DCs, marketing team. Scott, of course, would say a finance team as well. That would all be contributing to a strong trend there that is really right now, performing very well. Just very happy with, again, in terms of the mix that you were asking about, it really goes back to what I said in the beginning, though. They have just delivered, in their case, more of the better and best branded goods. Yes, and across almost every family of business.

I happened to just be there a week ago, when I was in the stores, I was just seeing with the teams, we were looking at the branded content throughout the different categories of goods, and I really haven't seen it to that level really ever before on one of my visits over there. Scott's actually been there recently. I think he and his guys have seen the same thing. Scott?

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah, I'll just jump in. I'm not gonna comment on the merchandise content, in terms of the overall, some of the other factors, we just love what we see there is conversion has been great across all of their markets. The performance, like we've talked about Marmaxx, across really consistent across all of the countries that we do business there. The new stores are performing well. We're opening a lot of vendors, which I think Ernie was alluding to. Some of it's due to e-commerce vendors. One of the things that we particularly like and have alluded to is, Ernie's talking about the market share, our performance versus the best we can determine versus retailers, whether it's in Europe or the U.K., that outperformance, particularly in the U.K., is strikingly better and is also much better than the European retailers. Love that. We've maintained that delta.

We've done a pretty good job in the last two years of maintaining our margins compared to what a lot of other retailers in Europe have done with the pressure that's been due to, with both Brexit, wage, and the FX impact, which they have a lot in the currency. Feel real good about how we've held up and certainly, as Ernie commented, the number one thing being just great top-line sales. Yeah, feel real good about our business going into the holiday season.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Your part B, Bob, I think, was on Familia's mix.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Mix.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

Yeah. Right now, we wouldn't comment on how much it overlaps or not. I will tell you, and I think Scott said this in the beginning, they do run a full-line store similar to what we do, and they have a home division. They have multi families of business, and I think there's some obviously vendors that would overlap and a fair amount that don't. Again, we think it's a good relationship.

Scott Goldenberg
Senior EVP and CFO, TJX Companies

Yeah. Two things, just one to add on that. There's plenty of merchandise, same thing we would say here with us and competitors, and there's plenty of merchandise availability in Europe as well. The one thing I just do want to also add is our e-com business in the U.K. is particularly strong in combination with strong brick and mortar. We have breached the 7% of U.K. sales on our e-com with strong brick and mortar, so that we feel real pleased with how we're doing in both segments there. Almost 50% of the goods that are ordered are click and collect. Again, that's something that differentiated there with our e-commerce business.

Ernie Herrman
CEO and President, TJX Companies

One of the pluses, as you know, we talk about here, is our e-com business. We purposely keep it differentiated so that we don't cannibalize our stores as much. Over there, maybe not as differentiated as here, but still differentiated with the goal of having the customer shop both. I think that was our last question, and we've enjoyed the call. Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. Thank you, everybody.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You may all disconnect. Thank you for participating.