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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 2, 2022

Moderator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Thermo Fisher Scientific 2021 fourth quarter conference call. My name is Katie and I'll be coordinating your call today. If you'd like to ask a question during the presentation, you may do so by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. I would like to introduce our moderator for the call, Mr. Rafael Tejada, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Tejada, you may begin the call.

Rafael Tejada
VP of Investor Relations, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call. With me today is Marc Casper, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note this call is being webcast live and will be archived on the investor section of our website, thermofisher.com, under the heading News & Events until February 11, 2022. A copy of the press release of our fourth quarter 2021 earnings is available in the investor section of our website under the heading Financials. Before we begin, let me briefly cover our safe harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make about the company's future expectations, plans, and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are on file with the SEC and available in the investor section of our website under the heading Financials, SEC Filings. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequent to today. Also, during this call, we will be referring to certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP.

A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings, and also in the investor section of our website under the heading Financials. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Marc.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thank you, Raf. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for our fourth quarter call and a wrap-up of a truly exceptional year for Thermo Fisher Scientific. We delivered another quarter of very strong results. As I reflect on the year, three things stand out to me. Our proven growth strategy, powered by our PPI business system, continues to drive outstanding financial performance. Customer demand is strong. Our core business is performing very well. We're gaining market share, and we continue to play a leading role in the societal response to COVID-19. Finally, we continue to build on our trusted partner status with our customers. All of this gives me great confidence in a very bright future as we continue to create sustainable value for all of our stakeholders. I'll get into more detail in my remarks later, but first, let me recap the financials.

Starting with the quarter. Our revenue was $10.7 billion. Adjusted operating income was $3.16 billion, and our adjusted operating margin was 29.5%. Adjusted EPS was $6.54 per share. Turning to our results for the full year. We grew revenue by 22% to $39.21 billion in 2021. Adjusted operating income increased 27% to $12.14 billion. We expanded our adjusted operating margin by 130 basis points to 31%, and we delivered a 28% increase in adjusted EPS to $25.13 per share. Building on the tremendous success that we had in 2020, I'm incredibly proud of our team's stellar performance in 2021.

It's really a testament to the strength of our global team and our proven growth strategy, resulting in another year of exceptional financial results and share gain. Let me now give you color on the results for the quarter and the year, starting with pharma and biotech. We had outstanding performance, delivering growth over 20% in the fourth quarter and over 25% for the full year. In addition to strong market dynamics, these results were driven by our unique customer value proposition and our leading role in supporting our customers across a wide range of exciting therapeutic areas, including our role in supporting COVID-19 vaccines and therapies. During the year, we saw broad-based strength across our businesses in this end market, including our bioproduction, pharma services, biosciences, chromatography, and mass spectrometry businesses, as well as in the research and safety market channel.

In academic and government, we declined in the low single digits during the quarter against strong demand in the year-ago period and grew in the low double digits for the full year. During the year, we saw very good growth across a range of our businesses, particularly biosciences, electron microscopy, and our research and safety market channel. Turning to industrial and applied, we grew in the low teens during the quarter, and we grew in the high teens for the full year. During the year, we saw strong growth in our electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses, as well as in the research and safety market channel. Finally, in diagnostics and healthcare, Q4 revenue was 30% lower than the prior year quarter, and revenue grew in the high single digits for the full year. Throughout the year, the team executed really well to support customers' testing needs.

In the base business, we had strong growth in our immunodiagnostics and transplant diagnostic businesses. Before I move to our growth strategy, let me provide a few comments on our role in the pandemic response. In the quarter, we generated $2.45 billion in COVID-19 response-related revenue. This was driven by the emergence of the Omicron variant, which led to strong testing demand, as well as our significant role in enabling vaccine and therapy production. Throughout 2021, we continued to operate with speed and scale to meet our customers' needs related to COVID-19 and generated total response revenue of over $9 billion, of which $2 billion was from vaccines and therapies. I'm very proud of the role that we continue to play around the world to enable our customers and governments to fight the pandemic.

At the same time, we're executing our core business strategy incredibly well. Let me provide you an update on the progress we made in 2021 executing our proven growth strategy, which consists of three elements, as you know, developing high-impact innovative new products, leveraging our scale in the high-growth and emerging markets, and delivering a unique value proposition to our customers. We made outstanding progress in 2021. Let me share a few of the highlights. Starting with the first pillar, it was a fantastic year of high-impact innovation. In 2021, we launched a number of new products across our businesses, strengthening our industry leadership and enabling our customers to advance their important work. In our bioproduction business, we launched the high-performer DynaDrive single-use bioreactor.

Available in sizes up to 5,000 L, this latest advancement in our DynaDrive single-use bioreactor technology brings the benefits of single-use technologies to unprecedented volumes and performance and ensures consistent scalability from pilot scale studies through commercial production. In chromatography and mass spectrometry, we continue to innovate across life sciences research and biopharmaceutical development. During the year, we extended the impact of our industry-leading Orbitrap platform to bring high-resolution analysis to a range of applications, including toxicology and metabolomics. During the fourth quarter, we launched the Thermo Scientific Orbitrap Exploris MX mass detector, providing high throughput analysis to improve the development and production of biopharmaceuticals. In electron microscopy, we introduced the Thermo Scientific Helios 5 EXL DualBeam scanning electron microscope to support the development of increasingly smaller and more complex semiconductors.

In genetic sciences, our new Applied Biosystems QuantStudio 7 Pro Dx Real-Time PCR System, launched during Q4, enables clinical testing laboratories to accelerate molecular diagnostics. The second pillar of our growth strategy is leveraging our scale in the high-growth and emerging markets to create a differentiated experience for our customers. We continue to strengthen our capabilities serving these markets, and I'll highlight a few examples. To increase our capacity for single-use technology, we opened new manufacturing sites in China and Singapore to serve both local and global demand from biopharma customers. In South Korea, we continue to enhance our local capabilities with customer-focused innovation centers for both the semiconductor industry and our biopharma customers. These additional capabilities position us really well to support our customers' needs. The third pillar of our growth strategy is our unique customer value proposition.

We've continued to significantly accelerate organic investments in our capabilities and added capacity to be an even better partner for our customers. In 2021, we invested $2.5 billion in capital to meet short- and long-term customer demand. Highlights included expansion of our sterile fill-finish network, bioproduction, enzymes, nucleotides, plasmids, and lab products capacity. As always, our PPI business system and our mission-driven culture were major factors in our success during the year. They enabled the rapid execution of our capital investments and helped us find a better way every day so we can continue to bring innovative new solutions to our customers, work more efficiently and effectively, and operate with speed and scale to create even greater value for all of our stakeholders. Turning to capital deployment, we were very active again this year, which further strengthened our customer value proposition.

We continue to successfully execute our disciplined capital deployment strategy, which is a combination of strategic M&A and returning capital to our shareholders. In 2021, we were very active, investing $24 billion in M&A and completing 10 transactions to further strengthen our customer value proposition. This was highlighted by the addition of PPD, which we closed in December. We're super excited to have our PPD colleagues as part of the company and share their expertise as we work together to enhance innovation and productivity for our pharma and biotech customers. PPD is performing at a very high level. The business delivered great results in 2021 and is entering 2022 with outstanding momentum, significantly ahead of our original expectations at the time of the deal announcement. The customer feedback has been extremely positive, and we're excited by the pipeline of opportunities that we're building.

We're executing our proven integration methodology, which is a key element of our PPI business system, to create value for all of our stakeholders. We're well-positioned to deliver year three cost synergies of $75 million and $50 million in operating income from revenue synergies. We're on track to deliver $40 million in cost synergies in 2022. At the end of the year, we completed the acquisition of PeproTech, a leading provider of recombinant proteins, which is an excellent complement to our industry-leading biosciences business. In 2021, we also returned $2.4 billion of capital to our shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends. Turning to a brief update on the progress of our ESG priorities, I'm very proud that over the past year, we significantly advanced our environmental, social, and governance initiatives.

Our mission to enable our customers to make the world healthier, cleaner, and safer has never been more relevant. Highlights this year include our commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This builds on our earlier goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% across our operations by 2030, enhancing the reporting and transparency through our expanded corporate social responsibility report and alignment of multiple ESG reporting frameworks. We're actively engaging in our community. Our foundation for science reached more than 100,000 students globally through our STEM education programs. Our goal is to make a very positive impact in the communities in which we live and work. With that, I'd like to now review our 2022 guidance at a high level, and then Stephen will take you through the details. We're significantly raising both our revenue and earnings guidance.

This increase is a result of both the strong performance of our core business and an increase in the assumption for COVID-19 testing-related revenue. We're raising our 2022 full-year revenue guidance by $1.5 billion - $42 billion, which would result in 7% revenue growth over 2021. We're increasing our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance by $7 - $22.43 per share. To summarize our key takeaways from 2021, we executed very well to continue our growth momentum and deliver outstanding financial performance. Our business is performing very well, and we're gaining market share. Our exceptional performance in 2021 and momentum entering 2022 enables us to raise our outlook for 2022, and we're incredibly well-positioned for the future.

Our proven growth strategy positions us to deliver long-term core organic revenue growth of 7%-9%. With that, I'll now hand the call over to our CFO, Stephen Williamson. Stephen?

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks, Marc, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in our press release, in Q4, we delivered an excellent quarter, capping off another outstanding year. For the full year 2021, we delivered 17% organic growth. That included 14% organic-based business growth and $9.2 billion of COVID-19 response revenue. We delivered 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share in 2021 and over $7 billion of free cash flow, all while significantly investing in our company to enable a really bright future. I'm very proud of what the team accomplished this year. These results are significantly ahead of our prior guidance, so let me walk you through the key elements of the beat. We delivered $2.1 billion more revenue than included in our prior guide.

This included $1.5 billion higher COVID-19 response revenue, $375 million of revenue from the PPD acquisition, and $200 million higher base business revenue. On our last earnings call, we de-risked testing response revenue in our guidance, and we said that if there were any additional opportunities to support customers' testing needs, we'd be ready to do so and flow the benefits through our P&L, and that's exactly what we did in Q4. In terms of the base business, in Q4, we delivered 8% base business organic growth, which was 3 percentage points higher than assumed in the prior guide. This is very good performance, particularly given the four fewer selling days in the quarter. Excellent momentum on the top line.

Our core business is on a great growth trajectory, and we continue to step up and meet our customers' testing needs. Our PPI business system enabled us to generate great pull-through on the very strong revenue performance in Q4, leading to excellent adjusted EPS performance. We delivered $6.54 of adjusted EPS in the quarter and $25.13 for the full year. This is $1.76 ahead of our prior guide. A broad-based beat to round out an outstanding year. Let me now provide you with some more details on our performance. Beginning with our earnings results, and as I mentioned, we delivered $6.54 of adjusted EPS in the quarter. For the full year, adjusted EPS was $25.13, up 28% compared to last year.

GAAP EPS in the quarter was $4.17. For the full year 2021, GAAP EPS was $19.46, up 22% versus the prior year. On the top line, our Q4 reported revenue grew 1% year-over-year. The components of our Q4 revenue increase included a 4% organic revenue decrease, a 6% contribution from acquisitions, and a headwind of 1% from foreign exchange. As I mentioned, the base business organic revenue growth in the quarter was 8%. For the full year 2021, reported revenue increased 22%. This includes 17% organic growth, a 3% contribution from acquisitions, and a 2% tailwind from foreign exchange. The full year base business organic growth was 14%.

In 2021, we delivered $9.23 billion of COVID-19 response revenue, which includes $2 billion of vaccines and therapy support revenue. Turning to our performance by geography, the organic growth rates by region are skewed by the response revenue in the current and prior year, as well as four fewer selling days in Q4 2021 versus the prior year quarter. For Q4, North America declined in the low teens. Europe grew high single digits. Asia-Pacific and China grew in the high single digits. Rest of the world grew mid-single digits. For the full year, North America grew low double digits. Europe grew over 25%. Asia-Pacific grew over 20%, including just under 20% growth in China. Rest of the world grew mid-teens.

Turning to our operational performance, Q4 adjusted operating income decreased 10% and adjusted operating margin was 29.5%, 380 basis points lower than Q4 last year. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 27% and adjusted operating margin was 31%, which is 130 basis points higher than 2020. In the quarter, our PPI business system enables to deliver strong volume leverage on the base business and strong productivity. This is more than offset by the impact of lower testing response revenue and our ongoing strategic investments across our business to support our near and long-term growth. For the full year, we drove positive volume leverage and productivity. We also had favorable business mix. This was partially offset by our strategic investments. Moving on to the details of the P&L.

Total company adjusted gross margin in the quarter came in at 50.5%, 340 basis points lower than Q4 last year. For the full year, adjusted gross margin was 51.6%, up 40 basis points versus the prior year. For both the fourth quarter and full year, the change in gross margin was due to the same drivers as those for our adjusted operating margin. Adjusted SG&A in Q4 was 17.3% of revenue, and for the full year, adjusted SG&A was 17.1% of revenue, an improvement of 80 basis points compared to 2020. Total R&D expense was approximately $390 million in Q4.

For the full year, R&D expense was $1.4 billion, representing growth of 19% over the prior year, reflecting our ongoing investments in high impact innovation to fuel future growth. Looking at results below the line for the quarter, our net interest expense was $150 million, $16 million higher than Q4 last year, largely due to the PPD financing activities. Net interest expense for the full year was $493 million, an increase of $5 million from 2020. Adjusted other income and expense was a net income in the quarter of $7 million, $8 million higher than Q4 2020, mainly due to changes in non-operating FX. For the full year, adjusted other income and expense was a net income of $38 million, which is $8 million lower than the prior year.

Our adjusted tax rate in the quarter was 13.8%. This was 220 basis points lower than Q4 last year, mainly due to the different levels of pre-tax profitability year-over-year. For the full year, the adjusted tax rate was 14.6% or 30 basis points higher than 2020. Average diluted shares were $398 million in Q4, approximately $2 million lower year-over-year, driven by share repurchases net of option dilution. For the full year, the average diluted shares was $397 million. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Cash flow was another great highlight for the year. Cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was $9.5 billion, up 15% over the prior year.

Free cash flow for the year was $7 billion after investing $2.5 billion of net capital expenditure. This reflects strong returns we're generating in the short term and the investments that we're making for the long term. During the year, we returned approximately $2.4 billion of capital to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, and we ended Q4 with $4.5 billion in cash. Our total debt at the end of Q4 was $34.9 billion, up $13.2 billion sequentially from Q3, largely as a result of the financing activities related to the PPD acquisition. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.7 x gross debt to adjusted EBITDA and 2.3 x on a net debt basis.

Completing my comments on our total company performance, adjusted ROIC was 19.8%, up 180 basis points from Q4 last year, as we continue to generate exceptional returns. To now provide some color on the performance of our four business segments, let me start with a few framing comments. The scale and margin profile of our COVID-19 response revenue varies by segment, but it's been consistent throughout the year. We continue to make strategic investments across all of our businesses. The size of those investments does not necessarily align with the response revenue in each segment, so that does skew some of the reported segment margins. During Q4, we had four fewer selling days than the year ago quarter. Finally, we recently renamed the Laboratory Products segment to reflect the inclusion of the PPD acquisition.

It's now the Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment. Also going forward, we'll refer to PPD as our clinical research business within this segment. Moving on to the segment details, starting with Life Sciences Solutions. Q4 reported revenue in this segment decreased 5%, and organic revenue was 8% lower than the prior year quarter. In the quarter, we delivered very strong growth in our bioproduction and biosciences businesses. This was offset by lower revenue in the genetic sciences business, driven by lower testing revenue versus the year ago quarter. For the full year, reported revenue in this segment increased 28%, and organic revenue increased 23%. Q4 adjusted operating income in Life Sciences Solutions decreased 14% and adjusted operating margin was 48.2%, down 490 basis points year-over-year.

In the quarter, we delivered strong productivity, which is more than offset by unfavorable business mix and strategic investments. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 28% and adjusted operating margin was 50%, a decrease of 20 basis points versus 2020. In the Analytical Instruments segment, reported revenue increased 5% in Q4 and organic growth was 6%. Growth in this segment this quarter was driven by electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses. For the full year, reported revenue in this segment increased 18% and organic revenue increased 17%. Q4 adjusted operating income in this segment increased 15% and adjusted operating margin was 22.1%, up 190 basis points year-over-year. During the quarter, we saw a favorable business mix and delivered strong volume pull-through and productivity enabled by our PPI business system.

That was partially offset by the strategic investments we're making across this segment. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 48% and adjusted operating margin was 19.7%, an increase of 390 basis points versus 2020. Turning to Specialty Diagnostics. In Q4, reported revenue and organic revenue were both 26% lower than the year ago quarter. In the quarter, we saw strong growth in our transplant diagnostics and immunodiagnostics businesses, which is offset by lower COVID-19 testing revenue versus the year ago quarter. For the full year, reported revenue in this segment increased 6% and organic revenue increased 5%. Q4 adjusted operating income decreased 43% in the quarter and adjusted operating margin was 20.5%, down 590 basis points from the prior year.

In Q4, we drove positive productivity enabled by our PPI business system. This was more than offset by unfavorable volume mix and strategic investments in the segment. For the full year, adjusted operating income decreased 6% and adjusted operating margin was 22.6%, a decrease of 300 basis points versus 2020. Finally, the Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment. In Q4, reported revenue in this segment increased 16% and organic revenue growth was 5%. During Q4, we saw strong growth in the pharma services and laboratory products businesses, and we recognized $375 million of revenue for PPD, the clinical research business. For the full year, reported revenue in this segment increased 21% and organic revenue increased 15%.

Q4 adjusted operating income in the segment increased 42% and adjusted operating margin was 11.5%, which is 210 basis points higher than the prior year. In the quarter, we drove strong productivity via PPI business system and saw a favorable business mix, partially offset by strategic investments. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 45% and adjusted operating margin was 12.4%, an increase of 200 basis points versus 2020. Let me now turn to our updated 2022 guidance. Before I get into the details, I'd like to begin with a quick reminder about our definition of core business, which we introduced at our Investor Day last year and noted we transitioned to it in 2022. Core includes our base business, the vaccines and therapies response revenue, and the PPD acquisition.

Given the scale of the PPD acquisition, our core organic growth calculation will include PPD on a full year basis, as we think that gives you the best view of how to look at the total company business and how it's performing. For full transparency, we'll also continue to provide total company organic growth when reporting our actual performance in 2022. Moving on to our guidance. As Marc mentioned, we're significantly increasing our full year 2022 revenue and adjusted EPS outlook. We're raising our full year 2022 revenue guidance by $1.5 billion - $42 billion. We're raising our adjusted EPS guidance by $1.07 - $22.43. This very strong raise reflects the excellent strength of the business, and we continue to expect 8% core organic revenue growth in 2022.

Let me now provide you with additional details on the updated guidance, starting with revenue, where there are four elements driving the $1.5 billion raise. A $1 billion increase in the COVID-19 testing assumption. A $900 million increase for the core business. A $500 million decrease due to the change in FX rates. A $100 million increase to reflect the PeproTech acquisition, which closed just before the year-end. In terms of our COVID-19 testing revenue assumption, we're continuing the same de-risked approach to guidance as there are a range of outcomes for the year. Our guidance now assumes $1.75 billion of testing revenue in 2022. There are scenarios where testing demand could be higher than this level, and should that be the case, we're well-positioned to support customer needs.

As we did in 2021, we'll flow the benefits of that through our P&L. For now, we thought it was prudent to continue to take a de-risked approach to the outlook. In terms of the core revenue raise, $600 million relates to PPD and reflects the excellent strength of that business and to a lesser extent, the recent GAAP changes around deferred revenue measurement for acquisitions. We now expect PPD, our new clinical research business, to deliver $6.5 billion of revenue in full year 2022. This represents 8% organic growth on a full year basis on top of 30% growth it delivered in 2021. The remaining $300 million of the core revenue raise is to reflect the strong finish to 2021 by the rest of the core business.

Our core business is in great shape. It ended 2021 with even more scale, and as I mentioned earlier, we continue to expect that it will grow 8% organically in 2022. A very strong raise overall for our revenue guidance, and we will use our PPI business system to generate strong pull-through on that revenue, and we now expect adjusted operating margin to be 25.4% in 2022. That's at 20 basis points higher than what we assumed in our prior guidance. In terms of adjusted EPS, our stronger business outlook is enabling us to raise the 2022 adjusted EPS guidance from $21.36 - $22.43, further building on an already very strong outlook for the year.

Let me now provide you with a couple of other details on the 2022 to help you with your models. As I mentioned, PPD is expected to deliver $6.5 billion of revenue and $1 billion of adjusted operating income in 2022. This acquisition is now expected to contribute $1.90 to adjusted EPS in the year. PeproTech is expected to deliver revenue of just over $100 million in 2022 and $0.05 of adjusted EPS. FX is now expected to be a year-over-year headwind of $500 million in revenue or 1.3% and $0.31 on adjusted EPS. We continue to assume an adjusted income tax rate of 13% in 2022.

We now expect full-year net interest costs to be approximately $490 million and other income to be $10 million. We continue to assume net capital expenditures of approximately $2.5 billion-$2.7 billion and free cash flow of approximately $7 billion. Our guidance still assumes $2.5 billion of capital deployment, which is $2 billion of share buybacks that we already completed in January and $475 million of capital returned to shareholders through dividends. We now estimate that the full-year average diluted share count will be between $395 million and $396 million shares. Finally, a couple of comments on phasing to help you with your modeling.

In terms of revenue dollars, the assumption in the guide is that revenue dollars are fairly linear for the year, with Q1 and Q4 being slightly higher than Q2 and Q3. The de-risk assumption for COVID-19 testing used in this guidance assumes that this revenue is very front-end loaded in the first half of the year, and then it's an assumed endemic run rate level of $100 million of revenue per quarter in the second half of the year. Organic growth of the core business is expected to be fairly consistent throughout the year. In terms of adjusted EPS phasing, this guidance assumes slightly more weighting towards the first half of the year than the phasing we had last year, with Q1 being about the same percentage of the full year as we had in 2021.

To conclude, we've delivered another outstanding year, and we're in great position to achieve our 2022 goals. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Raf.

Rafael Tejada
VP of Investor Relations, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thank you, Stephen and operator. We're ready to take questions.

Moderator

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to remove your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. In order to allow everyone in the queue an opportunity to address the Thermo Fisher management team, please limit your time on the call to one question and one follow-up. If you have any additional questions, please return to the queue. We take our first question from Jack Meehan from Nephron Research. Jack, please go ahead.

Jack Meehan
Equity Research Analyst, Nephron Research

Thank you, and good morning.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Morning, Jack.

Jack Meehan
Equity Research Analyst, Nephron Research

Morning, Marc. Wanted to start with PPD and the higher 2022 growth trajectory here. Can you provide some more color around just your confidence in the handoff from the COVID-related work last year to other projects? You know, PPD's been one of the leaders in biotech, so was curious to get your thought if some of that confidence is driven by some of the large phase III mRNA studies which are getting kicked off?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Jack, thanks for the question. Our clinical research business, PPD, has really had a really excellent 2021, with 30% growth, and it was broad-based strength across biotech, biopharma, all of the very important therapy areas that they're focused on, including work in the support of COVID-19 vaccines and therapies. As we look at the authorizations, we were very strong last year, which gives the business great momentum coming into 2022 and 2023, and we feel good to be able to grow that business in line with our core average of about 8% this year. We feel very good about the outlook for the business.

Jack Meehan
Equity Research Analyst, Nephron Research

Great. You know, for both you and Stephen, a big area of focus has been inflation in the market. I was wondering, you know, what your assumption is for pricing for 2022?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Sure.

Jack Meehan
Equity Research Analyst, Nephron Research

Where you're able to capture that across the portfolio, and how is that translating to revenue and earnings growth for the year?

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. Jack, we have been very active on using the pricing lever as part of our PPI business system, and we have a great team that helps our businesses do that in a very appropriate way. We've seen basically in the second half of 2021, and as we project forward to 2022, pricing around about 2 x the normal level given the inflationary environment they're facing. That's in aggregate across the whole portfolio. It's different by different areas of the business, but that's the aggregate result, and we're offsetting the impact of inflation through that pricing activity.

Jack Meehan
Equity Research Analyst, Nephron Research

Thank you both.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks, [Jack].

Moderator

We take our next question from Patrick Donnelly from Citi. Please go ahead.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director, Citi

Great. Thanks for taking the questions, guys. Marc, maybe just on the guidance raise, you know, that core $400 million raise or so. Can you just talk through, I guess, the end markets that you're seeing, you know, where you're feeling incrementally better going into 2022 versus, you know, a few months ago at the Investor Day and then obviously the 3Q update as well? Just kind of curious, you know, the confidence level going into 2022. You guys obviously sound quite bullish for the year, but maybe if you could just talk through some of the upside levers as we go into this year?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Patrick, you know, we really ended the year with really strong performance. You see that in the 17% organic growth that we delivered for the full year. You see that in the very strong base business growth of 14%. Bookings in the fourth quarter was once again ahead of revenue. We enter the year with very strong momentum. As we thought about the outlook for the year, obviously we were quite bullish with the 8% back in September with the Investor Day. The way that we thought about it was all of the additional revenue in the core, we basically are gonna grow that. We're gonna keep that and then grow that by 8% as well, and that's sort of what's implied in the guidance.

We feel very well positioned given what our outlook was in September, how the business finished the fourth quarter, the strength of the bookings and therefore 2022 should be another great year for the company.

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah, Patrick, you know, the extra rev base was pretty broad across the business when I think about the impact in Q4.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director, Citi

Understood. Okay. Maybe just one on the capital deployment side. Obviously, you guys have been very active, another $2 billion to start the year here on the share repo. You kind of talked about the $7 billion free cash flow for the year. Can you just talk about the pipeline of opportunities on the deal side? Again, PeproTech seems like a nice fit. How active we should expect you to be? Again, leverage seems manageable at 2.3 coming out. Maybe just talk about the pipeline and the expectations for the year there?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

If you reflect back on last year, right? Very active year with 10 transactions. You know, the bolt-ons, about $4 billion worth of transactions, $20 billion roughly for a PPD. Actually a really nice year of bolt-on activity. If this was any other quarter than the fourth quarter, we'd actually be talking about PeproTech quite a bit, right? In terms of a classic bolt-on, great growth prospects, good technology that is already performing well and will flourish under our ownership and the strength of our biosciences business. That's kind of the look back, right? It gives you a sense that there's plenty of opportunity. Our pipeline is busy, right? We have plenty of financial capacity.

You know, we'll be incredibly disciplined to make sure that it fits our strict criteria and creates, you know, shareholder value and that it really is additive to the portfolio. You know, we're actively looking at a number of transactions, and we'll see how they play out. You know, return of capital is also an important part of our strategy. As you noted, you know, we deployed already $2 billion on buybacks in the beginning of the year, and we're excited to be able to do that for our shareholders as well.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director, Citi

Great. Thanks, Marc.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

You're welcome.

Moderator

Our next question comes from Dan Arias from Stifel. Dan, please go ahead.

Dan Arias
Managing Director, Stifel

Good morning, guys. Thanks for the questions. Marc, maybe just following up on Patrick's M&A question there. I'm just curious about whether or not you're actually seeing assets become more attractive these days given the market moves? I mean, we've all seen valuations in the public markets come in, so it feels tempting to say yes, but I imagine that the management teams of these companies remember their stocks being a lot higher not too long ago. On the private side, maybe sort of a similar thing relative to the last raise or something. I guess the question is, are assets any more approachable than they used to be in reality or not really?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. You know, I think it's early to see that changes increases the pool, if you will, of potential actionable transactions, right? Because, you know, it takes a while for, you know, valuation expectations to really settle down. Obviously the stock market, you know, is bounced around a bunch. It's, you know, I think it'll take a while for expectations to change. You know, our pipeline's busy, right? You know, we are extremely disciplined. You've heard me say in the past, right, when valuations are more elevated, you're going to think about businesses that have a very favorable risk reward profile. You don't have scenarios where the businesses that you acquire, you know, aren't creating shareholder value.

Obviously if you get in a period where valuations are more favorable from an M&A perspective, then that's gonna open up the pool, right? I don't think that happens, you know, in the first month or two of the year. I think it's more of a we'll see how the year plays out.

Dan Arias
Managing Director, Stifel

Yep. Okay. That makes sense. Maybe on the clinical channel, how would you describe the spending environment in the hospital landscape right now when it just comes to sort of non-COVID related items as we start off the year? It seemed like things were normalizing, but then, you know, we did get some hospital capacity constraints as Omicron surged. Just curious how you're seeing things trend and how spending priorities are looking and demand overall in the clinical segment?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. When I think about the core, you know, healthcare and diagnostics portion of the business, you know, I look back at last year. We had solid growth in the, you know, in that routine activity or Specialty Diagnostics. What I would say is you know, it's better than you know, it's growing, you know, again, but there's still some level of noise in terms of volume disruption, right? It's not at the consistent growth that you would have seen in 2018, 2019. You know, you lose two or three weeks because of Omicron that has some minor effect. It's fully baked into our numbers, and it would be truly in the noise level for us in terms of what our outlook is.

You're not yet at sort of maximum, you know, diagnostic growth outside of COVID testing until you really have no capacity utilization in the hospitals.

Dan Arias
Managing Director, Stifel

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Marc.

Moderator

The next question comes from Derik de Bruin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Derik de Bruin
Managing Director and Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Good morning.

Derik de Bruin
Managing Director and Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, Marc, I don't know if you can do this, but it's a question we're getting from investors. If you look at that 25.4% operating margin guide for 2022, what's the, I guess, can you talk through the push and takes on, you know, contributions or, you know, what's the FX headwind? What's the decrease from PPD? You know, and just basically in COVID, sort of walk through the basis on what's sort of like the underlying margin. I think we're getting a lot of questions on that as people sort of think about, you know, sort of like the future trajectory.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. Let me give the 80,000-ft, and I will not bridge yet, and Stephen will. We increased our operating margin outlook from the Investor Day. Actually, I think at the Investor Day, we did a really nice job of explaining, you know, you bring PPD in at a lower margin year one, then margins expand. We talked a little bit about how the COVID would unwind, but also actually the longer term views. We kind of in a way said, "Let's go to the endpoint, the next three-year model, four-year model, and so that you can take all the COVID out, and you see the growth in margins off of that level." So actually I'm super excited because we've come here and actually we've been able to increase it.

Stephen, maybe you might want to add a little bit more.

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. You know, in terms of the long-term model, we said margins of greater than 26%, and that's all incorporated in this guidance as we think about, you know, 2022 as a year in that three-year long term model. We raised our guidance for revenue. PPD is part of that, which is a kind of mid-teens margin. FX is slightly more of a hurt in terms of the change versus the prior guide. The higher testing and the higher core business growth is coming through at a decent margin. That's the kind of puts and takes that gets you the 20 basis points increase, and it's all in line. It's actually slightly higher than we'd included in that three-year model that we gave out in the Investor Day.

Derik de Bruin
Managing Director and Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Marc, you had, you know, you ended your APAC and China business actually ended the year quite strong. Can you sort of like give us your current thoughts on sort of like how you see China moving forward in 2022 and 2023 and just, you know, just your high growth markets in general, just how things are tracking there? Thank you.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Derik, thanks for the question. We had very strong growth in APAC, you know, about 20% for the year. China, you know, just below, I think 19%, so it's kind of in the same range. You know, when I look at the outlook, China being the largest of the countries in that region, it represents about 8% of our total revenue, just by context. You know, we expect it to be and continue to be one of our fastest-growing end markets. You know, significant investment in pharma and biotech in particular in the country. We're well-positioned to continue to serve that very well. The team in China is bullish about the outlook. There are clearly geopolitical tensions, and we'll navigate those appropriately.

That's part of it. We feel good about what the outlook is there. You know, we've had really good strength, you know, beyond China, right? South Korea continues to perform at a really good level. We played, you know, very strong role in India, and that's expanding nicely. It's, you know, the region's been good for us, and I'm very proud of how the team has performed, you know, in Asia-Pacific and obviously around the world.

Derik de Bruin
Managing Director and Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Analyst, Bank of America

Great. If I can sneak one more in, the academic and government number in Q4, was that four less selling days and people not being back in the lab, some COVID lockdown headwinds, just sort of. If you could sort of talk about that number.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. Obviously for the year with the low double-digit growth, very strong. You know, we had low single digit decline, as you said, in the fourth quarter. Really, it's a combination, as you said, 4 selling days less. We also had a very strong comparison in academic and government in the prior year period, so that's probably the other factor beyond any Omicron type disruption. I thought about it, there was not much to read into it in terms of, you know, what the activity level was, what customers were talking about, pipeline and stuff. It seemed fairly normal.

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Derik, just reflecting on your margin question, when I think about the additional guide in terms of revenue for testing, that's assumed to come through at the average for the pull-through of the rest of the company as well. Not a significantly higher margin profile. That gets you the 25.4%.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks, Derik.

Derik de Bruin
Managing Director and Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Analyst, Bank of America

Oh, great. Helpful.

Moderator

We take our next question from Luke Sergott from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Luke Sergott
Director of Healthcare Equity Research, Barclays

Hey guys. Good morning. I think everybody right now is trying to figure out the industry's capacity to absorb the COVID vaccine roll-off, and given you guys supply, also manufacture, and then do the clinical side, your thoughts here would be really helpful. Really just trying to figure out what indications or technologies you guys are looking at that can replace any of that roll-off?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Luke, thanks for the question. You know, when I think about the demand profile, and capacity expansions, obviously there's been very significant demand across the industry for supporting all of the COVID therapy and vaccine, activity. The industry, you know, obviously, utilization went up hugely, probably unsustainably high. Some of the investments you're seeing, you know, within our own company, and I'm sure across others, is to bring utilization rates back to normal, right? That's the first thing to remind. Within our own business, if I think about the investments, I think about the nature of the customer contracts, I think about who the customers are, what else they have in their pipelines.

You know, our ability to transition the COVID-related activity to other therapeutic areas is something that we have a high degree of confidence in the ability to do that. You don't do it necessarily in one quarter, right? It takes a few quarters to get all of that smoothed out. But we have good line of sight, you know, in terms of, you know, how to backfill when COVID demand is, you know, God willing, less needed, you know, around the world, right? I mean, as we all hope that it's something that at some point wanes to a certain, you know, to a certain extent. You know, our ability to do that, and you can think about it, you can visualize it, right?

Sterile fill finishing activities, really all of the biologics that are used for any indication run through that capacity, right? We've added capacity, and we're running flat out and, if there's less of a need longer term for vaccines, then you would see that capacity go to other critical areas. That would be a. You can visualize it that way. The capacity is truly generic to all of the indications out there.

Luke Sergott
Director of Healthcare Equity Research, Barclays

All right. That's really helpful. Lastly, as you guys look at that $1.75 billion on testing, Mesa appears to have had a really strong quarter. Can you just give us a sense of the number of customers there? I know it's such a small product line, but it's a you know key new platform for you. As you think about number of customers, placements, and as the menu kinda expands there.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. You have two different things going on with our rapid diagnostic systems and our PCR that we acquired early in 2021. You have the long-term menu should be on the respiratory panel and the COVID-19 test. That, you know, that's a multiyear investment that really leverages the technology for the long term, and we're excited about that, right? When I think about the second aspect of it is the role in COVID response. You know, demand there has been very, very high and, you know, while I can't tell you the exact number of customers, you would see it in the pharmacies as a natural application where it's been used. You see it in the doctor offices as well as in a number of back to life settings.

You know, I've been to meetings where, you know, that technology has been used to clear people to be able to attend the meeting, you know, and you get a result in 30 minutes. It's an exquisite technology to get a PCR result that quickly. I feel good about the acquisition, how the technology roadmap is developing and how it's performing.

Luke Sergott
Director of Healthcare Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Thanks.

Moderator

The next question comes from Vijay Kumar from Evercore. Vijay, your line is open.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Stephen, maybe.

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore

One on the guidance here. Good morning to you. On, like, the guidance here, 8% core, I guess I heard you say, you know, your core revenues, you know, was raised by $300-$400 million-ish. So should your core be 9%? Like, it feels like it's improved versus your last guidance. Is that the right way to think about, you know, your core accelerating?

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Vijay, good morning. The raise is because of the scale of the business has gotten larger in 2021, and then we're growing that at 8% going forward in 2022. The growth rate is still the same as our prior guidance for core, which is a very strong 8%. The base on which it's growing is actually larger because of the way that we finished in the end of 2021.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore

Understood. Then one on margins and biopharma processing. Did your COVID, you know, testing margin assumptions change? I'm curious in more on this DynaDrive single-use bioprocessing bioreactor. Do you expect any share shift in the industry? It looks like, you know, you guys are quite optimistic about this product. I'm curious if this is a share gain opportunity for Thermo.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Vijay, in terms of the bioproduction activity. When we say the word bioproduction, what we're meaning here is our cell culture media, our single-use technologies, our purification resins. That's part of a much bigger set of, you know, production activities for pharma biotech, which includes pharma services and our bioscience reagents, some of the activities. You know, I called out the DynaDrive specifically because today when you think about a customer choice, for most, you know, probably 70%-75% of medicines and indications that are biologics, you can use single-use technology. That doesn't mean that that's the share that is used, but you can economically, and the alternative is stainless steel. That's a 2,000-L scale. Our technology allows you to go to 5,000-L scale.

That effectively opens it up for almost all medicines that could be made. Now, there's probably a couple of very high volume ones you'd still want to do in stainless steel. Now, how fast customers will ultimately adopt it will take some time. We've obviously adopted it in one of our biologics facilities, and we're super excited about the capability 'cause the economics and the quality is fantastic. I think the technology is exquisite, and it's unique to us. Yeah, I think it allows us to grow our share over time.

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Basically expands our served end market in effect.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore

Gotcha. It's Stephen, sorry. Did your COVID testing margin assumptions change versus at the last guide?

Stephen Williamson
SVP and CFO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

In terms of the 2022 version? No. There's an assumption that it is gonna come in a contribution margin around about the company average.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore

Understood. Thank you, guys.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks, Vijay.

Moderator

The next question is from Dan Brennan from Cowen. Please go ahead.

Dan Brennan
Senior Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director, TD Cowen

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Marc, just a quick comment, just kick it off. I'm still unsure on Zach, but no INTs the last five games certainly gives me some hope. I just wanted to ask a question on the base biologics business, ex-COVID. I didn't hear it in the prepared remarks, but you may have discussed it. Just how did that business grow in the quarter? Could you give some color on what the booking trends were in the quarter and kinda what to assume implied in the 2022 growth for that business?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Dan, when I think about our biologics, our production activities, I think it's probably good to put it into the macro context. You know, roughly $20 billion of our revenue today, including PPD, services, pharma, and biotech, about half of it is in the production part of the business, right? In general, the production grows a little faster than the other activities we do in pharma and biotech. You know, when you look at the company's long-term 7%-9% core organic growth outlook, pharma, and biotech will be the fastest of the growing end markets, so growing faster than that on average, going forward. We enter the year obviously with very strong momentum, right, with 25% growth in pharma and biotech for the full year.

You know, a very special year and, you know, we're excited about the growth prospects we have this year with the 8% core growth.

Dan Brennan
Senior Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director, TD Cowen

Got it. Then maybe as a follow-up, just on the diagnostic testing side, you guys are obviously tremendously successful with COVID testing. I'm just wondering if you can comment on, you know, all the PCR platforms that you've expanded globally? What's the strategy and what's kind of the revenue contribution as COVID slows to kind of monetize maybe some content on those boxes? Is there something baked in to base business, or just how do we think about that opportunity for Thermo?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. Dan, one of the things that we get questions, your question we get, periodically, we tried to at least frame it a bit in Stephen's remarks, where we expect in an endemic phase of COVID, about $100 million a quarter or, you know, $400 million a year of, you know, molecular diagnostics revenue, related to the increased installed base supporting COVID testing, the increased sample prep installed base. That's a rough number. You know, we'll give it more precision when we're actually in the endemic phase, but you know, that's the view. When that exactly happens, we just assume that starts in Q3, but that's an assumption, just like all of our testing things. You know, we'll update that as we see how the pandemic plays out.

Rafael Tejada
VP of Investor Relations, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Operator, we have time for one more question.

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks, Dan.

Rafael Tejada
VP of Investor Relations, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thank you, Dan.

Moderator

Thank you. Our final question comes from Tejas Savant from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Tejas Savant
Executive Director and Healthcare Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, guys. Good morning, and thanks for squeezing me in here. Marc, one question for you on the M&A pipeline. I know it came up earlier in the call as well, but just curious as to philosophically, you know, get your view on how do you think about growth assets specifically, you know, if an asset is not sort of margin or EPS accretive near-term, is that still sort of something that you would look at over here? Or would you sort of, you know, prefer kinda like the more PPD flavor of M&A?

Marc Casper
Chairman, President, and CEO, Thermo Fisher Scientific

Yeah. It's a great question, right? The way we think about acquisitions is really along our criteria, right? We start with, you know, does it strengthen the company strategically, would our customers value it, and ultimately, does it create shareholder value? We start with the return on invested capital, the internal rates of returns. Before we get into the EPS or any of that stuff, we just say, "Is this a good long-term investment," right? If it is, we'll look at the shorter term financials and say, "Is that an acceptable risk reward to us to take the activity?" As you know, if you think about the many deals we've done, we actually haven't focused on is it accretive to our organic growth, or we've actually just focused on is it a really strategic fit that strengthens the company that'll create shareholder value.

We have an incredible track record of accelerating the growth of the businesses we acquire, right? That's the cool thing. You've seen us, you know, you know, where over the years we've bought businesses like Life Technologies that was growing slower than the company average. Obviously, it's been unbelievable in terms of how fast it's grown, you know, you know, in terms of at scale. You know, we're excited about PeproTech, which is a higher growth business, and we're excited about the prospects around PPD. Thank you for the question. Let me wrap up and thank everybody for participating. We're obviously pleased with how we performed in 2021. We're in a really great position to achieve another excellent year in 2022.

As always, thank you for your support of Thermo Fisher Scientific, and we look forward to updating you as the year progresses. Thanks, everyone.

Moderator

Thank you all for joining today's call. This now concludes. You may now disconnect your line.

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