...Statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. More details can be found in the written materials.
Ladies and gentlemen, here, everywhere, online, around the world, outer space, I'm Franz. And on behalf of everybody at Tesla, welcome to We, Robot. Just wanna thank Warner Bros. for hosting us here. As you know, this is the birthplace of many epic films, many of them depicting a vision of the future. We're here tonight to experience that future that is closer than you think. And who better than Elon, right, to show us that future? So it looks like Elon's on his way, so let's welcome him out here.
Welcome! Welcome to the We, Robot party, so we have quite a show for you tonight. I think you're gonna like it. As you can see, I just arrived in the Robotaxi, the Cybercab. And there's 20 more where that came from, so they've been traveling. There's no people in them, as you can see. The cars are just going by with no people. And we have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight, so you'll see Model Ys and the Cybercab, all driverless. You'll be able to take a ride in the Cybercab. There's no steering wheel or pedals, so I hope this goes well. We'll find out.
We want you, Elon!
You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark and dismal, where it's not a future you wanna be in. So, you know, like, I love Blade Runner, but I don't know if we want that future. I think we want that duster he's wearing, but not the bleak apocalypse. We wanna have a fun, exciting future that if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you'd be like: "Yes, I wish I could be there now." That's what we want. So when we think about transport today, there's a lot of kind of pain that we take for granted that we think is normal. Like having to drive around LA in like three hours of traffic.
Yeah, and people that live in LA, I mean, you know, trying to get from Pasadena to, you know, El Segundo during rush hour is like. You can fly to, you know, another city faster than you can get to crosstown LA. So, and you have to drive the whole way. Unless you're in a Tesla, of course. Our Tesla already does quite well at this, you know, supervised Supervised Full Self-Driving is actually working quite well. I'm sure there's people in the crowd, you're using that, yeah? So we'll Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, where the car, you could fall asleep and wake up at your destination. So, but there's also a challenge for a lot of people that cars cost too much.
I mean, when you factor in everything that goes into a car, and the car insurance, and the car payments, and the storage of the car, it's very expensive. So with and you say, like, how often are how many hours a week are cars used? Your average passenger car is only used about 10 hours a week out of a hundred and sixty-eight hours. So the vast majority of the time, cars are just doing nothing. But if they're autonomous, they could be used, I don't know, 5 x more? Maybe, maybe 10 x more. So you could actually, for the same car, would have 5 x as much value, maybe, maybe 10 x as much value.
It's- there's a hundred and sixty-eight hours in the week, and like I said, only ten of them are used for driving. So and then a bunch of those hours are looking for a parking spot, which, you know, can be pretty annoying at LAX . So we want... With autonomy, you get your time back. This is a very big deal. So it's not just a safe, like, it'll save lives, like a lot of lives, and prevent injuries. I think we'll see autonomous cars become 10 x safer than a human. I mean, if you think of the past, that where there were... There used to be an elevator operator in every elevator.
But once in a while, they'd get, you know, they'd get tired and they'd accidentally shear somebody in half, you know. So now we have automated elevators. You just get in an elevator, and you press a button, and you don't even think about it. And it just takes you to the floor, and if you did see an elevator operator with a big relay switch, you'd be like, "That's weird." Now, that's how cars will be. And it's not just the lives saved and injuries, but if you look at, think about the cumulative time that people spend in a car and the time that they will get back, that they can now spend, well, I guess, on their phones, or watching a movie, or doing work, or whatever you wanna do.
You can think of the car in an autonomous world as being like just a little lounge. You're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge, and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable little lounge, and when you get out, you will be at your destination, so yeah, it's gonna be awesome, so in fact, we I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. Like, the average cost of a bus per mile for a city, not the ticket price, 'cause that is subsidized, but the average price is about a dollar a mile. Whereas the cost of Cybercab, we think probably over time from a...
The operating cost is probably gonna be around $0.20 a mile, and price, including taxes and everything else, probably ends up being $0.30 or $0.40 a mile.
Can we buy one?
Yes, and you will be able to buy one. Yes, exactly. And we expect the cost to be below $30,000. Yeah. And I think there'll be an interesting, you know, business model where, like, let's say somebody is an, you know, Uber or Lyft driver today, where they can actually sort of manage a fleet of cars and, like, sort of manage, I don't know, 10, 20 cars, and just sort of, you know, take care of them like a shepherd, tends their flock. You have a little, your flock of cars, and you're the shepherd, and you take care of your flock of cars. I think that'd be pretty cool. And I think it's gonna be a glorious future. It's gonna be really something special. So-
When will be available?
Yes. Good, all excellent questions. So we do expect actually to start fully autonomous Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year, and that's obviously with the Model 3 and Model Y, and then we expect to be in production with the Cybercab, that which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames, but in twenty twenty-six, so yeah, before twenty twenty-seven, let me put it that way, and we'll make this vehicle in very high volume, and but well before that, you will experience a robotic taxi via the Model 3 and Model Y program, and Model S and X, too.
But the Model 3 and Y Unsupervised Full Self-Driving with permission wherever regulators essentially approve it in the U.S. and then to follow outside the U.S. So and it's Cybertruck too, yes, of course. Sorry, I don't wanna be, yes, yes, yes. All our cars, basically, all cars that we make. So let's not get nuanced here. All right, next slide. So one of the reasons why, or maybe the computer can be so much better than a person is that we have millions of cars that are training on driving. So it's like living millions of lives simultaneously and seeing very unusual situations that a person in their entire lifetime would not see.
But, hopefully,
Yeah, exactly. So it's with that amount of training data, it's obviously gonna be much better than what a human could be, because you can't live a million lives. And it's also, it can see in all directions simultaneously, and it doesn't get tired or text or any of those things. So it will naturally be, like I said, ten, 20, 30 x safer than a human, just for all those reasons. And I wanna emphasize that the solution that we have is AI and vision, so there's no expensive equipment needed. So the Model 3 and Model Y and Model S and Model X that we make today will be capable of full autonomy unsupervised. And that means that our cost of producing the vehicle is low.
Now we are gonna actually overspec the computer for the Cybercab, so our AI 5 computer will be somewhat overspecced. Because I think there's actually also an opportunity, sort of like in Amazon Web Services, where if the car's driving fifty hours a week, there's still over a hundred hours left, and there's a potential there to have a massive amount of distributed inference compute, where if you've got, like say, a fleet of a hundred million vehicles and a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you have a hundred gigawatts of compute, which is really quite substantial. If it's there, you might as well use it, so yeah. That's... That, I think, will make sense. All right. Our autonomous future is here.
As I said, we've got 50 Teslas driving autonomously. We're trying to give you a sense of what cities will be like in the future, and when you get in, you'll see, like, it's really quite a wild experience to just be in a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, no controls, and it feels great. So and we've, you know, we have enough vehicles here, so everyone should be able to try it out and experience the set that we've built here. It's a very big set, so it's, like, really, we've used, I don't know, 20, 30 acres or something like that. It's really big. So it's, it goes on a... The ride's long.
We set it up to feel like a ride, like a park ride. So it'll be cool, and you'll get to experience it tonight. Something we're also doing, and it's really high time we did this, is inductive charging. So the Robotaxi has no plug. It just goes over the inductive charger and charges. So yeah, that's kind of how it should be.
We love you!
Thanks, guys. I love you, too. So one of the things that, like, is really interesting is how will this affect the cities that we live in? When you drive around a city or when a car drives you around a city, you'll see there's, like, a lot of parking lots. There's parking lots everywhere, parking garages, there are. So what would happen if you have an autonomous world is that you can now turn parking lots into parks.
We're taking the parking lot out of parking lot. You're welcome. So there's a lot of opportunity to create green space in the cities that we live in. That would be quite fantastic. Oh, and also, what happens if you need a vehicle that is bigger than a Model Y? The Robovan. The Robovan is. This is real. We're going to make this, and it's gonna look like that.
Now, can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That'd be sick! So this can carry up to 20 people, and it can also transport goods. So you can configure it for goods transport within a city, or transport of up to 20 people at a time.
The Robovan is what's gonna solve for high density. So if you want to take a sports team somewhere or you're looking to really, like, get the cost of travel down to, I don't know, $0.05-$0.10 a mile, then you can use the Robovan. Some people call it the Robo Van, but so yeah. You know, one of the things that we wanna do, and you've seen this with the Cybertruck, is we want to change the look of the roads. The future should look like the future. So, speaking of robots, everything we've developed for our cars, the batteries, power electronics, the advanced motors, gearboxes, the software, the AI inference computer, it all actually applies to a humanoid robot.
It's the same techniques. It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels. And we've made a lot of progress with the Optimus. And as you can see, we started out with someone in a robot suit, sort of clown, and then we've progressed dramatically year after year. So if you extrapolate this, you're really gonna have something spectacular, something that anyone could own. So you can have your own personal R2-D2 C-3PO. And I think at scale, you know, this would cost something like, I don't know, $20,000-$30,000. Probably less than a car, is my prediction long term.
Now, it'll, you know, take us a minute to get to the long term, but, but fundamentally at scale, the Optimus robot, you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for, I think, probably $20,000-$30,000 long term. So, what can it do? It'll be able to do anything you want. So it can be a teacher or babysit your kids, it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks.
Whatever you can think of, it will do.
So great.
Yeah, it's gonna be awesome.
I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind. Yeah.
Because I think everyone, of the eight billion people of Earth, I think everyone's gonna want their Optimus buddy. And there's gonna be some, maybe two, and then they'll be producing products and services. I predict, actually, provided we address risks of digital superintelligence, 80% probability of a good outcome. Look on the bright side, the cup is 80% full. The cost of products and services will decline dramatically, and basically anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance, the likes of which almost no one has envisioned. It'll be something special. So and one of the things we wanted to show tonight was that Optimus is not a canned video, it's not walled off.
Free them!
The Optimus robots will walk among you. Please, please be nice to the Optimus robots.
Yeah!
You'll be able to walk right up to them, and they'll serve drinks at the bar. I mean, that's just a wild experience just to have humanoid robots, and they're there just in front of you. Yeah, with that.
We're here.
Let's party!
We love you, Elon!
I love you guys, too. If you look at that, the gazebo over there. Let's get the party started.