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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 22, 2022

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the CVR Partners, LP Q4 2021 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Richard Roberts, VP of FP&A and IR. Thank you, Richard. You may begin.

Richard Roberts
VP of FP&A and Investor Relations, CVR Partners, LP

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's call. With me today are Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer, Dane Neumann, our Chief Financial Officer, and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2021 Q4 and full year results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. Let me also remind you that CVR Partners completed a 1-for-10 reverse split of its common units on 23 November 2020. Any per unit references made on this call are on a split adjusted basis. This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2021 Q4 earnings release that we filed with the SEC yesterday after the close of the market. Let me also remind you that we are a variable distribution MLP.

We will review our previously established reserves, current cash usage, evaluate future anticipated cash needs, and may reserve amounts for other future cash needs as determined by our general partner board. As a result, our distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, operating performance, fluctuations in the prices received for finished products, capital expenditures, and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the board of directors of our general partner. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer. Mark?

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. The summarized financial highlights for the full year 2021 included net sales of $533 million, net income of $78 million, EBITDA of $213 million. We repurchased over 24,000 CVR Partners common units, and the board of directors declared total cash distributions for the full year 2021 of $9.89 per common unit. Looking more specifically at the 2021 Q4, we reported net sales of $189 million, net income of $61 million, EBITDA of $93 million, and the board of directors declared a Q4 distribution of $5.24 per common unit, which will be paid on 14 March 2022 to unit holders of record at the close of the market on 7 March 2022.

We saw a significant improvement in the nitrogen fertilizer market in 2021, which drove strong earnings and cash distributions for CVR Partners. In addition to the improved market fundamentals, we continued our focus on safe and reliable operations. We are proud to report continued improvement in our environmental health and safety metrics, including a 67% year-over-year reduction in environmental events. We're providing more ESG disclosures and published our first internal ESG report for 2020. Work is progressing on the 2021 report that we plan to release publicly later this year. During the Q4 of 2021, we operated the plant safely and reliably with consolidated ammonia plant utilization of 90%.

We experienced approximately 10 days of downtime at the Coffeyville facility due to two separate outages at the third-party air separation plant and approximately 7 days of downtime for turnaround work in October when we made the tie-ins for the urea upgrade project. We also experienced approximately 11 days of downtime at the East Dubuque facility. A major part of our 2022 turnaround plan at East Dubuque should address the issues that resulted in the downtime during the Q4. Our combined operations produced approximately 197,000 gross tons of ammonia, of which 70,000 net tons were available for sale for the Q4 of 2021. This compares to production of 220,000 gross tons of ammonia, of which 75,000 net tons were available for sale in the prior year period.

We produced 288,000 tons of UAN in the Q4 of 2021 as compared to 335,000 tons in the prior year period. In addition to the downtime that I mentioned, we also elected to maximize ammonia production available for sale at East Dubuque at times in the quarter due to the strong pricing and demand environment. During the Q4 of 2021, we sold approximately 265,000 tons of UAN at an average realized price of $347 per ton and approximately 105,000 tons of ammonia at an average realized price of $745 per ton. Year-over-year pricing increased significantly for UAN and ammonia, which were up 150% and 179% respectively.

The tightness in the nitrogen fertilizer market that began in early 2021 persisted through the Q4, with the energy crunch in Europe and Asia adding to the supply concerns and driving pricing for ammonia and UAN higher. We had a good fall harvest in the U.S., and the weather was favorable for a strong ammonia application. The outlook for spring plantings and demand for crop inputs remain strong. We have a good order book for the spring, and fertilizer pricing has remained firm, but volatile in urea, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial results.

Dane Neumann
CFO, CVR Partners, LP

Thank you, Mark. Turning to our results, for the full year 2021, we reported net sales of $533 million and operating income of $134 million, compared to net sales of $350 million and an operating loss of $35 million for the full year 2020. Net income for the full year 2021 was $78 million or $7.31 per common unit, and EBITDA was $213 million. This is compared to a net loss of $98 million or $8.77 per common unit, and EBITDA of $41 million for the full year 2020. As a reminder, our full year 2020 results were reduced by a $41 million non-cash goodwill impairment related to the Coffeyville facility taken in the Q2 .

The year-over-year improvement in EBITDA was driven primarily by higher prices for ammonia and UAN, offset slightly by higher feedstock costs and operating expenses. For the Q4 of 2021, we reported net sales of $189 million and operating income of $72 million, compared to net sales of $90 million and an operating loss of $1 million in the Q4 of 2020. Net income for the Q4 of 2021 was $61 million or $5.76 per common unit, and EBITDA was $93 million. This compares to a net loss of $17 million or $1.53 per common unit, and EBITDA of $18 million for the Q4 of 2020. Consistent with the full year results, the increase in EBITDA was driven primarily by higher pricing for ammonia and UAN.

Direct operating expenses for the Q4 of 2021, excluding inventory and turnaround impacts, increased by approximately $15 million year-over-year, primarily related to higher share-based compensation expense and increased natural gas and utility costs. Turning to capital spending, during the Q4 of 2021, we spent $12 million primarily on maintenance capital. For the full year 2021, we spent approximately $26 million, of which $16 million was for maintenance capital. We currently estimate total capital spending for 2022 to be between $36 million and $39 million, of which $32 to 34 million is expected to be maintenance capital. This excludes turnaround spending, which we expect will be approximately $25 to 30 million for the planned turnarounds at Coffeyville and East Dubuque in the summer.

Looking at the balance sheet, as of December 31, we had approximately $148 million of liquidity, which was comprised of $113 million in cash and availability under the ABL facility of $35 million. Within our cash balance of $113 million, we had approximately $34 million related to customer prepayments for the future delivery of product. During the Q4, we redeemed another $15 million of the remaining 2023 9.25% senior notes outstanding. Subsequent to year-end, we redeemed the final $65 million of the 2023 notes that were outstanding.

With the debt refinancing completed in June of 2021 and the full redemption of the remaining 2023 senior notes earlier today, we have reduced total debt on the balance sheet by $95 million and reduced our annual debt service cost by approximately $26 million per year, a reduction of over 40%. In assessing our cash available for distribution, we generated EBITDA of $93 million for the quarter, had reserves of $10 million for interest, $9 million for maintenance and capital expenditures, $4 million for the planned turnarounds at Coffeyville and East Dubuque in 2022, a release of $2 million of previously established reserves related to the turnaround work at Coffeyville completed during the quarter, and $675 thousand of utility pass-through from the city of Coffeyville related to Winter Storm Uri.

In addition, the board of directors of our general partner established reserves of $15 million to repay a portion of the 2023 senior notes in the Q4. As a result, there was $56 million of cash available for distribution, and the board of directors of our general partner declared a distribution of $5.24 per common unit. Looking ahead to the Q1 of 2022, we estimate our ammonia utilization rate to be between 92% and 97% for the quarter. We expect direct operating expenses to be $50 to 55 million, excluding inventory impacts, and total capital spending to be between $4 million and $7 million. With that, I will turn the call back over to Mark.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Thanks, Dane. Since our last earnings call, the strength in crop prices has persisted with March corn recently at $6.50 per bushel and soybeans at $16, and strong grain prices across the IMX curve through 2024. The fall harvest went well, and the USDA currently estimates planted corn acres were 93 million, with expected yields of 177 bushels per acre, and soybean acres were 87 million, with yields of 51 bushels per acre. The expected 2021/2022 inventory carryout of 10.4% for corn and 8.0% for soybeans continues to be at the lower end of the ten-year range. The fall ammonia application was one of the largest in recent years.

We shipped most of the inventory we had available to sell, and the industry as a whole came out of the fall with very low inventory levels entering the winter. The supply challenges continue in Europe, where natural gas prices remain at approximately $25/MMBTU. China and Egypt continue to restrict exports of urea, and Russia has reduced its export activities as well. We're closely watching the Russia-Ukraine situation that could impact Russia's ability to export nitrogen fertilizers due to potential economic sanctions. Nitrogen fertilizer prices rose through the Q4, and we were able to put on a good order book into the spring.

We still have more product to sell, but we have a good foundation of orders that captured the higher market prices that developed in the Q4. prices were higher in the Q4 versus the Q3 , and this pricing strength is currently expected to hold through the H1, or through the first and Q2 s of 2022. In January, the Department of Commerce provided a preliminary determination on countervailing duties against UAN imports from Russia and Trinidad, with cash deposit requirements ranging from 10 to 34% from Russia and up to 63% from Trinidad. The ultimate impact from these duties remains to be seen. However, we would expect to see a reduction in import volumes that should be supportive for pricing in the U.S.

At our Coffeyville facility during the outage at the air separation plant, we completed the installation of an additional CO₂ compressor and ammonia pump, which has led to an increase in UAN production capacity of approximately 100 tons per day. This increased UAN production capacity should provide a quick payback for that capital project. We continue to progress on creating a structure that will allow us to claim and monetize 45Q tax credits for the carbon capture and sequestration through enhanced oil recovery activities that are ongoing at the Coffeyville plant. Since our last call, we've entered into due diligence and structuring discussions with tax equity investors, and we would expect to close the deal by the end of the Q1 or early in the Q2 .

The Build Back Better legislation did not get passed by Congress, but we continue to monitor other pathways for Congress to pass climate change legislation that could potentially increase the price of carbon capture credits as was proposed in Build Back Better. We believe that higher 45Q credit values for carbon capture and sequestration could accelerate the development of one or more proposed third-party sequestration projects in Iowa and Illinois that could be an opportunity for our East Dubuque facility. As Dane mentioned, we reduced our debt outstanding by $15 million in the Q4, and this morning we retired the remaining $65 million of the 2023 9.25% senior notes. With the retirement of the $95 million of 2023 notes, we have completed our targeted debt paydown.

The combination of the debt paydown and refinancing of the old notes in June 2021 has lowered our annual interest expense by $26 million. We are also pleased to be paying a distribution for the Q4 of 2021 of $5.24 per unit. With the improvements in the nitrogen fertilizer markets over the past year and the reductions in our annual debt service costs, we're evaluating opportunities to further improve and diversify our business. We look forward to providing additional details over the coming quarters as we progress these evaluations.

While fertilizer market conditions are strong, we are maintaining our focus on maximizing cash flow generation by safely and reliably operating our plants with a keen focus on the health and safety of our employees, contractors, and communities, prudently managing costs, being judicious with capital, but targeting select investments in reliability projects and incremental additions to production capacity, maximizing our marketing and logistics capabilities, and targeting opportunities to reduce our carbon footprint. In closing, I would like to thank our employees for their excellent execution during the Q4 and their continued commitment to being healthy and safe in everything we do. With that, we're ready to answer any questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Brian DiRubbio with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Good morning. Just a few questions for me. Can you help me just get to a pro forma liquidity number, between the payout of the distribution and the redemption of the old first lien notes? Just trying to get a sense of what liquidity is gonna look like, at this point, pro forma for those two items.

Dane Neumann
CFO, CVR Partners, LP

Yeah. As you know, as a variable rate MLP, we do distribute all of our available cash. As a result, we will have to maintain minimum liquidity ratios similar to what we have in the past. The build that we've seen in cash as a result of the strong operating performance has not had a material impact on that minimum balance. As we go forward, the appropriate reserves will be put in place to accommodate for that excess paydown of debt.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Got it. Can you remind us what the minimum liquidity level is?

Dane Neumann
CFO, CVR Partners, LP

From a cash perspective, our minimum target's usually $20 to 30 million. That'll probably elevate with the higher prices. The ABL facility of $35 million.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

I think, Brian, what Dane's trying to say is that we're comfortable in making the distribution payment and paying the notes here in the Q1 . We have adequate cash on the balance sheet to maintain that level and higher and plus our ABL liquidity.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Nope, understood. That's helpful, that color. Can you help us understand, you know, last year we definitely saw a drop in imports, you know, for UAN. You know, do you have any sense of what that was versus what we saw in 2020 or 2019?

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Well, I would say that really the drop in imports was back half loaded or, you know, really Q4. I think that, you know, when the first preliminary indication came from the Department of Commerce on anti-dumping duties, you know, that kind of slowed things down, and that picked up pace in the Q4. I think that was the biggest issue, the fear from the producers that there would be duties or cash deposits required and that imports started to slow. We expect that slowing to continue into the H1 of 2022, and we're seeing it already in the marketplace, reduction in imported product from Russia and Trinidad.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Okay, great. Just two final ones for me. You know, Mark, the past week we've sort of debated, you know, do you keep Coffeyville as a pet coke facility, or do you convert it to nat gas? I think the last time you said you thought, you know, that the diversification of having pet coke was an advantage there. Is that still you're thinking on that plant?

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Yeah. It's actually, in the last year, it's flipped a bit. You know, it was, people were concerned about pet coke, now it's turned into a strategic advantage with gas. You know, starting with Uri last year, Coffeyville's actually been probably more competitive. I would tell you that in the last year, it's been more beneficial to run heavier crudes. We're actually. We've seen some more pet coke coming into the marketplace in our area, particularly the Mid-Continent. We have adequate supplies. We've got good agreements with a series of the refiners in the Mid-Continent, and we can also draw off the river for that product.

We feel very comfortable with pet coke, and it's now become, you know, I'd say, again, a good diversifier and a strategic advantage for us. We always have the optionality if the markets flip significantly down the road, we can convert that plant to natural gas if we need to.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Got it. Just on that, how much of your pet coke was sourced from your sister company?

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

We've been getting on the order of about 40% of our needs from the sister company. Our slate of the people that we buy from has been pretty consistent. You know, that hasn't really changed the last 3 years by any great amount. You know, there's a series of refineries within trucking distance of our facility, so we've been able to draw from that group, and it's been pretty consistent year-over-year.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Understood. Final question from me. You mentioned, you know, making other investments with all the cash that you're gonna be generating. Any sense of direction how we should be thinking about that? You know, are you thinking about M&A activity, you know, to sort of consolidate, or are you looking at diversification activities to reduce your exposure to some of the nitrogen fertilizers? Thanks.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

I think it's a combination of factors, and we're gonna be very disciplined in our approach. You know, we're gonna be methodical and disciplined in anything that we do, any capital we're gonna deploy there. You know, we've been, I'd say, protective of the balance sheet the last five years since we bought East Dubuque, and the refinancing and the paydown open up some optionality for us, but we're not gonna squander it, you know, in a rush to do transactions. We do think that either, you know, looking at things that could diversify us in other fertilizers or in nitrogen. Obviously, nitrogen's our power alley. We're not looking to diversify away from nitrogen, but there's pretty limited field of opportunities in nitrogen.

You know, we're looking at what else might take advantage of our skill set, our marketing skill set and our operating skill set. We're not gonna rush into anything. We're gonna be methodical and thoughtful and very returns-focused in our approach. We're gonna have a high hurdle rate to be able to consider deploying capital. We're also gonna look at internal projects, decarbonization projects or brownfield expansions. Not big ones, but potentially add-ons to the facility that give us capacity without having to spend a lot of capital. The balance sheet allows us to consider all that. Again, it's gonna be a high hurdle rate to deploy.

Brian DiRubbio
Managing Director and High Yield Corporate Bond Analyst, Baird

Understood. Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from William Stein, Private Investor. Please proceed with your question.

William Stein
Shareholder, Private Investor

Hey. Thanks so much for taking my questions. First, I wanna say congratulations on continuing this relatively long history of operating efficiently and safely, and now we also have commodity prices becoming more favorable. Great quarter, great results, and congratulations on that. My first question is a clarification on something you've mentioned in the prepared remarks and in answer to the first question of the decision to pay down the remaining expensive debt. I think in the past you've stated that you would do this from the tax credits. I think you stated in your opening comments, Mark, that you're hopeful that you may have an agreement on that. I assume if you do get it, that the cash from that will participate in funding this pay down.

If you don't get it, if you don't get paid on tax credits in the coming quarter or so, should investors be prepared to view your Q1 distribution as being reduced by an amount related to this pay down, or would you find another source of cash? I have a couple follow-ups.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Okay. Well, we're doing it in advance of receiving funds for the 45Q. We feel comfortable that we'll ultimately reach a structure that will meet the 45Q requirements. We do expect that to be able to put that in place. The funds won't come until later. I think the way I sort of described it on the previous calls was that between our operating cash flow, which has really been significant, as you saw in the Q4, and those 45Q credit dollars down the road, that we had the free cash generation to both pay down debt and make distributions. The Q4 is a perfect example. We paid down $15 million in debt, and we paid a $5.24 distribution.

Our feeling on, you know, going into this year is that between our free cash flow and the 45Q payments that we had, plenty of money to both pay down debt and pay distributions. We think that paying down debt and we're complete, you know, with the pay down today, but we think that creates shareholder value and the distributions on top of that, we're returning capital to shareholders. We do have to take into account the payment of the debt, and you'll see that we've reduced the amount available for distribution. Our free cash flow generation from operations has been very strong. We felt comfortable because of that generation that we could take advantage of.

We're gonna save about $3 million by paying it early rather than doing it ratably over the year. We saved the company about $3 million by stepping in early. We just didn't wanna leave that money on the table.

William Stein
Shareholder, Private Investor

Fair enough. Next question relates to the split between ammonia and UAN in the quarter. I think you answered this, but I just wanna clarify. It appears you sold much more ammonia than you usually do in Q4, but you upgraded less to UAN and sold less UAN, relative to sort of a typical seasonal pattern. It sounds like that's partly related to operational constraints, but maybe more related to market pricing and opportunities to sell ammonia at a high price. Do I have that sort of mix correct, that it's more, sort of, opportunistic selling as opposed to production related?

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Yeah, if I would say that the bulk of it was opportunistic market, and we've done that in the past when we had these opportunities. The fall ammonia run, it obviously East Dubuque's a much bigger ammonia market for our plant compared to Coffeyville. Even at Coffeyville, we had a great fall ammonia run. The weather was perfect. We had a long season for ammonia's like six weeks, which for us is long. You know, our customers kept coming back to us, so we decided to pull back in our UAN upgrade for a period of time, and that was just to satisfy the market. We were getting pricing there that was very attractive because prices were escalating during the quarter. We took advantage of that.

Once the season ended, we reverted back to what I'd call normal production slate, where we were doing more of regular upgrades. You know, Coffeyville's largely full upgrade. East Dubuque, we upgrade, you know, a fair amount there to UAN. We're back to normal going into the spring. We have done that periodically where the market offers it to us and, you know, and we're able to dial back there from away from UAN to ammonia for a period of time.

William Stein
Shareholder, Private Investor

Great. You already answered a question on sort of long-term trends and expansion opportunities. I'd like to squeeze one more in on a bit more of an operational topic, if I can. It relates to pricing and inventory. There are some investors, and in particular a bunch of people that write on Seeking Alpha, not me by the way, who always write about an expectation for the company to sell out all of your production and all inventory in some quarter. That always seems to be just over the rainbow. My understanding is that that concept is just not feasible in a process manufacturing operation like yours. I think I understand this dynamic, but maybe you can help explain why, you know, you're never gonna really like sell out and empty all the silos.

Is that the right way of thinking? Maybe you can explain that a little bit to us. Thank you very much.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Sure. Yeah, sure. Sure, William. There's kind of three variables there. Number one, you know, ideally, we run 100% production capacity 24/7, so every day of the week. We don't have unlimited storage at our sites. I think that we generally have to sell forward so that we, you know, the goal of the operation is to run maximum production. You know, that makes you the lowest cost, you know, lowers your costs as low as they can be for production. We don't have unlimited storage. You always have to sell some portion of production forward so that you can maintain full production and you don't get caught where you run out of storage capacity for product.

In those situations, you might have to, you know, to dial back your production level. That's one issue. The other issue is that the buying patterns of our customers. You know, we have people that buy, you know, they buy both forward tonnage and spot tonnage. And we have to be in the market selling when there's liquidity. When I define liquidity, I mean when big customers are buying product. Every year we have the UAN fill season in the summer where customers buy somewhere between the Q3 product and the Q4 product. If you don't participate in that, then they could satisfy their needs with other producers. You have to participate. They have similar dynamics in the ammonia season for the fall and the spring.

You have to participate when the customers are buying. We meet liquidity when it's there. We can't sell all our product at spot prices. I think that's a common fallacy that a lot of people, when they look at this business, why can't you sell all your production, spot market? Because if the liquidity dries up, then we don't have an outlet for our product, and we might, you know, fill up all our tanks and not have the storage for the product. We have to balance that. Sometimes we look really smart and sometimes we look really stupid, because, you know, we're either in front of the curve or behind the curve.

In a rising pricing environment like 2021, we always look behind the curve, but because we were selling forward, as we came into this year, the market was very strong in the Q4, and so we were able to sell H1 2022 product at much higher prices than we experienced during the rise in 2021. We've got a good book on. We can run comfortably at a, you know, full out production 24/7, and we have a good book of business. We can satisfy the customers. We still have some more to sell in the Q2 , but we're in great shape, and the market pricing has far, you know, is much higher than it was in the H2 of 2021.

William Stein
Shareholder, Private Investor

Well, that really helps. That was my understanding, and I appreciate you clarifying it for me and everyone else. Thanks so much and congrats again.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Thank you, William.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

Mark Pytosh
CEO, CVR Partners, LP

Again, I want to thank everyone for joining our call today, and we look forward to reviewing our Q1 results with you in a couple months. Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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