Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
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Wolfe Research 17th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

May 23, 2024

Moderator

Everyone, we're gonna get going with our next session, our ULCC panel. We've got a great group, really happy to have from Allegiant, BJ Neal, CFO. From Frontier Airlines, Barry Biffle, CEO, and from Sun Country, Dave Davis, president and CFO. So, just real quick, Barry's got some things he's gonna say just quickly for webcast. We're gonna get through that, and then we're gonna wrap that, and then we'll get into the discussion. So thanks, guys, for being here. Barry, I'll pass it to you. I know obviously there were some announced changes last week with respect to change fees. I know you wanna just talk about that a little bit, and then-

Barry Biffle
CEO, Frontier Airlines

Sure, sure.

Moderator

We'll get into it.

Barry Biffle
CEO, Frontier Airlines

Hey, well, thanks for having us, Scott, and thanks for everybody for joining us. You know, we're excited about what we announced, kind of the New Frontier, and in a moment, we'll kind of get into the story behind that, and no, it was not because of DOT transparency rules. It was about economics for the company as well as loyalty to our customers. But first, I kind of wanna start with, you know, market perceptions in the United States by sector. You know, there's the story about the legacies doing great because of international and premium and because their credit card revenues, the loyalty.

And then there's this story that the low-cost and domestic-centric are somehow broken, because we don't have the loyalty, we don't have the international, and there's this thing called cost convergence . So I think that half that story is true. I think the legacies are doing great and great for them, and the international seems to be kind of insatiable, if you will. But I don't think that there's winners and losers. There doesn't have to be a winner and a loser. I think we can all win, and I think in the case of Frontier specifically, there's really two things that have caused our revenue and obviously our margins to lag.

We've talked extensively about the oversupply that we saw in Florida and Vegas, and we've spent a lot of time over the last year, and we're rolling out now in the process of all the things we're doing to our network pivot, and we think that's worth around 7%-8% on a RASM basis by this time next year. Also, the second issue, which is what kind of was the genesis behind the New Frontier. So for the last year or so, we've been really looking at, you know, kind of our ancillary and ticket mix and so forth, and this is really a classic Laffer Curve situation.

So for those of you who remember the Laffer Curve, it's, you know, kind of two different tax rates can deliver a very similar tax revenue result, and this is kind of what happened with ancillary. You know, during COVID, we spent a lot of time focusing on ancillary, and I think in hindsight, we got some false positives on a lot of the data reads, and so we kept raising our ancillary, and at one point we said, "Hey, we think the target could go to 100." And at the time, the trajectory was very good. But some things have happened, especially over the last year and a half, and, you know, pre-COVID, we were selling 30% of our customers bought just the fare only. That has jumped to almost half of our customers now.

As we raised the ancillary prices, a lot of people chose just not to buy anything. And if you think about a load factor of ancillaries, so you think about all the ancillaries we sell, we sell bags, we offer seats, and all the availability of products. We are actually selling less than 20% of all the available ancillaries that we had, which is just crazy. When these things spoil, they go away. And so if you look, we got more expensive than the legacies on many of the itineraries. If you wanted a bag, a seat, you know, and all the options, we're more expensive, which is just absurd. I mean, we have the lowest costs in the United States, right?

So why shouldn't we be able to sell you a seat cheaper, a bag cheaper, and any product and service you want? So we decided to weaponize our cost, and that's what The New Frontier is all about, was giving you four options—what we believe are the most common kind of preferred options of consumers. We have a Basic, we have a Premium, we have our Economy and our Business options, and we introduce that in a way that it's easy and quick to compare, not only with the options themselves, but we can compare to our competitors. And we put out the For Less guarantee, which ensures that you're gonna get the lowest total price, not just for the fare, but any of the options that you want. And the results have been fantastic.

You know, when we launched this, immediately volume went up, and revenue per passenger went up as well. So yes, we did take some trade-off. We took $5 less on average on the non-ticket, but the total revenue per passenger went up because we're selling those other products and services that were simply spoiling in the past. And so customers are winning by getting more for less, and our shareholders obviously are winning with more revenue. And so I just want to make clear, we're not abandoning our ancillary strategy, and we're not gonna abandon unbundling. We think unbundling, philosophically, has enabled millions of customers to travel who couldn't afford to otherwise, and we're not gonna do that. But we're also not gonna alienate customers that want all those other products and services, and we're gonna weaponize our costs and win regardless of all the options.

So we're gonna remove our target of $100 in non-ticket per passenger, and we're now replacing that with a target for by 2026 of $125 total revenue per customer. And so if you take The New Frontier, and you couple that with all the other revenue diversity initiatives that we've been rolling out, and there's more to come, but we, as a reminder, we did BizFare earlier this year. We're still kind of tweaking that and getting the technology right in all the channels. We launched premium seating, we launched our UpFront Plus premium product in the front. We also have a new website, new app also coming later this year, along with NDC. And we think all these revenue diversity initiatives are another 6%-7% in RASM by early 2025.

So if you take the 7%-8% from the network shift, you take 6-7 from the revenue diversity, and you can easily see why we're confident in our target of 10%-14% margins in 2025. So one last thought I'll leave you with, cost convergence. This is actually the one of the funniest fairy tales I've heard in a long time. Let's don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. Our cost advantage is widening. If you've looked at the latest facts, and if you take everyone's guidance, our cost advantage is gonna explode this year. It's getting even bigger, and based on everybody's guidance that they put out. And so we've got the best cost model.

We're now gonna mix it with what we believe is the best revenue strategies, and we think we'll once again deliver top-tier margins. We made the most money per airplane, in the world, actually, pre-COVID, and come hell or high water, we're gonna do it again. So I thank you for your time, and I'll yield the rest of the time back to you, Scott.

Moderator

Just quick follow-up with the change with the New Frontier. What % of your customers are flying on, like, basic economy where this does not apply?

Barry Biffle
CEO, Frontier Airlines

It was approaching half. It was in the 45%-

Moderator

Okay

Barry Biffle
CEO, Frontier Airlines

... range. It's gonna be considerably lower. I mean, we're only a few days in, so but our goal would be to cut that in half.

Moderator

Okay. All right.

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