Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the US Foods Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Melissa Napier. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and thank you everyone for your patience. We sincerely apologize for the delay. It took a bit longer than we had initially anticipated, but we are excited to get into today's commentary and talk about the overview of our results for the fourth quarter in fiscal year 2021, and also provide commentary on our outlook for fiscal 2022 and 2024, and talk a bit about our 2024 long range plan. As usual, we'll take your questions after our prepared remarks conclude. Given the delay in the time of the start of the call, Pietro and Dirk will be happy to spend a bit of extra time on the call to be sure that all questions are answered. Our earnings release was issued early this morning, and today's presentation slides can be accessed on the Investor Relations page of our website. That information should be updated.
During today's call, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing fourth quarter and fiscal 2021 results to the same time period in fiscal year 2020. In addition to historical information, certain statements made during today's call are considered forward-looking statements. Please review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K for a detailed discussion of those potential factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in these statements. Lastly, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. All reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the schedules on our earnings release, as well as in the appendices to the presentation slides that are posted on the website. As noted, we're not providing reconciliations to forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Pietro.
Thanks, Melissa. Good morning, everyone, and apologies as well for the delay, especially on a day where we've got so much to cover. Let's get into it. As you heard us say on the last call, our plans to drive continued value creation are centered on delivering against three financial outcomes. Profitably grow share, expand gross margin, and drive operational efficiency. In 2021, we made solid progress against those outcomes in the face of continued headwinds impacting the industry, and our results in the fourth quarter clearly demonstrate the impact of these efforts. Today, we will present our long range plan against those same financial outcomes.
The plan covers the period from 2022 to 2024 and is anchored on the following strategy: setting ourselves apart on reliable service and fresh quality, continuing to offer differentiated solutions that help our customers make it, be it innovative products, digital commerce, expert resources, and the only true omni-channel offering in our industry. Lastly, bringing an intense focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency. Joining me for that discussion will be Andrew Iacobucci, Chief Commercial Officer, and Bill Hancock, Chief Supply Chain Officer. The board and I have a high degree of confidence that our plan will deliver against the targets we are sharing today. Let me go to the takeaways for today's call, which are summarized on slide 2 . First, fourth quarter results were in line with the expectations that we outlined on our third quarter call.
Strong execution resulted in a 58% increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to fourth quarter 2020. Second, throughout 2021, we continued to take actions that solidify the foundation of the business and put in place a new operating model that underpins our recent performance and gives us great confidence in our ability to grow EBITDA from here. Third, we are presenting a long-range plan that generates $1.7 billion in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024. This plan reflects a combination of initiatives that are underway and the continued recovery of our industry. Let's move to slide 3 with a brief review of our 2021 highlights. Starting with the first pillar of profitable market share gains, which increased across all target customer types. The biggest increase came in nationally managed business, which includes healthcare, hospitality, and national and regional chains.
The team has won approximately $1 billion in new business over the last two years, net of optimizing lower margin business. On the independent restaurant side, we also saw year-over-year market share gains. Contributing to our share gains was a solid service foundation. Based on monthly research with 4,000 customers, our Net Promoter Score on service indicate that we are faring same or better than our major competitors. Our differentiated offerings and continued enhancements to our digital strategy also contributed to our market share gains, a good example of which is our online marketplace our US Foods Direct, which saw sales increase to 4-fold year-over-year. Moving to the second pillar of optimizing gross margins. This is where we had the greatest success. With gross profit per case the highest it has been since 2016.
Contributing to this were our continued efforts to optimize our portfolio of customers. We drove a 110 basis point increase in private brand penetration compared to the same quarter a year ago, and we continued to successfully pass on inflation to both contract and non-contract customers. The third pillar, operational efficiency, is where we are intensely focused. On selling and administrative expenses, we fully realize the cost savings we put in place in August 2020, aside from reinvestments in our sales force. Distribution costs per case have been significantly impacted by industry-wide staffing and turnover challenges and higher than historical wage increases that every company has faced. Our goal over time is to completely offset the headwinds on distribution cost per case through a combination of gross margin optimization and productivity initiatives.
Over the last three months, as a result of our efforts, we've seen turnover improve, and we've reduced the time to full productivity for new selectors, which ultimately will result in lower costs. Lastly, we made changes to strengthen our leadership in almost one-third of our distribution centers. Yet the biggest foundational change we made was to our operating model, reducing the number of regions to four and creating operations and commercial excellence teams dedicated to driving standardization more effectively and more quickly than before. We are already seeing the results, as illustrated by our 15% reduction in assortment last year. I will now turn to our 2024 long-range plan, a plan that has been developed over the course of last year.
The plan is expected to increase EBITDA to $1.7 billion in 2024, a $650 million increase over 2021, and $220 million-$250 million over 2019 pro forma. This increase comes from a combination of volume growth and EBITDA margin expansion. The initiatives you see here represent the most significant ones and are a combination of programs that have successfully created shareholder value in the past with some new initiatives, which we've been piloting this year. I will introduce each of the pillars and ask my colleagues to elaborate on some of the newer ones. Starting with profitable market share, which we expect to account for roughly 40% of the EBITDA growth. Profitable growth starts by offering reliable, consistent service, and consistent quality on fresh.
Our customer research indicates that no broadliner does this consistently well, which is why we see this as a big opportunity. Reliable service and quality then enables us to engage customers on those differentiated solutions that truly set us apart and have fueled our consistent market share gains heading into the pandemic. Last but not least, our omni-channel offering consisting of Chef's Store and US Foods Direct, both of which have enormous growth potential that we are investing in. After opening two stores in 2021, we are set to accelerate our store opening program, having secured the real estate to open 4-6 stores in 2022. Turning next to the pillar of gross margin, which we expect to generate around 40% of the EBITDA growth.
Optimizing gross margin is an area in which we have excelled over the years, generating an 83 basis point increase, excluding acquisitions, in the four years leading to COVID, through some of the programs that you see here. I'm now going to call on Andrew Iacobucci to give you a highlight or two from each of the market share and gross margin pillars. Andrew was appointed Chief Commercial Officer in April 2021. He joined as Chief Merchant in 2017 and is responsible for a significant portion of the gross margin expansion over that period. Andrew, over to you.
Thanks, Pietro, and good morning, all. As Pietro mentioned, the commercial roadmap is focused on driving profitable market share growth and margin expansion. I'll highlight a few of the medium-term areas of focus under these pillars. The first under profitable market share is fresh leadership, which means taking advantage of an opportunity we see to stake out a clear leadership position in COP and produce among our broad line peers. By leveraging the sourcing scale and expertise in Amerifresh and Ameristar, we are driving high single-digit improvements to cost of goods along with consistently high-quality product and innovative assortment. In mid-2021, we launched Fresh Check, which is a 27-point produce inspection program that has yielded a double-digit improvement in produce performance in our pilot markets. Both COP and produce drive significant incrementality and customer loyalty.
Customer research reveals that inconsistent produce quality is the number one reason that customers choose to source from multiple suppliers, and delivering high-quality fresh is equally important to distributor selection in the first place. The second area of focus is strategic vendor management, which entails strengthening our key vendor partnerships to ensure we're delivering best-in-class service and cost of goods. In a world of inflation, more and more opportunities have emerged for us to improve our cost position, and we plan to pursue those by leveraging our scale, all the while balancing the need to take advantage of newly formed regional or smaller player relationships that have flourished in today's supply-constrained environment. Scale is a key lever for US Foods, which when combined with the right supplier value proposition, creates sizable cost of goods opportunities.
Strategic vendor management is a proven process for us with consistent, meaningful year-over-year improvement over the past several years, and our recent learnings have only increased this momentum, as evidenced by mid-single-digit COGS improvement in recent negotiations. The last focus area I'd like to mention is margin enhancement through next-generation pricing. We recently announced a partnership with Zilliant, a market-leading pricing platform that allows us to be more responsive to market changes by dynamically optimizing prices based on over a dozen different inputs to drive margin or volume as appropriate. This will significantly enhance our agility and will pave the way for continued margin and share of wallet opportunities. Development and integration with our existing systems is well underway with a multi-market pilot plan for the second half of 2022. Pietro, back to you.
Thanks, Andrew. I will now move to the third pillar of operational efficiency. Over the years, we have done a lot of good work on reducing selling and administrative expenses, which represent about a third of our operating expenses. We also recognize that operations remains a big opportunity and one on which we are intensely focused. Our opportunity is to reduce operating costs by bringing a greater standardization and process discipline in the short term while exploring opportunities for automation over the longer term. That is why we hired Bill Hancock, our Chief Supply Chain Officer. Bill joined in November 2020 and brings deep experience in all aspects of operations, from warehousing to last mile delivery to automation. Since joining, Bill has assembled a terrific team, bringing talent from a number of best-in-class companies in logistics and warehouse automation. Bill?
Thanks, thanks, Pietro. Building off a strong exit from 2021, our supply chain team has narrowed our focus to a set of critical initiatives that will deliver continued growth and higher profitability in 2022 and beyond. I'll highlight two of those areas. First is our work on the foundation of our operations, which focuses on providing our teams the best training and technology available to provide a reliable service platform and reduce cost. We've reduced our trainee-to-trainer ratio for new associates, and we've launched a network-wide driver training program to create our own pipeline of CDL drivers. We're also providing all supply chain leaders more advanced leadership training to accelerate the productivity ramp-up with the high number of new associates. In 2021, we resumed the rollout of new scanning technology for our warehouse teams.
This new technology drives faster onboarding for new associates and has helped us capture up to a 5% productivity gain and reduce mispicks by 80%. The full network deployment of this technology is on pace to be completed by the close of the second quarter this year. We've also fully deployed new proof of delivery devices for our drivers that has shortened driver training time and improved delivery scan rates by 130 basis points in support of more accurate invoicing. While still early in our planning, this foundational work directly supports the build-out of our warehouse automation and supply chain technology roadmap. The second highlight is the work behind our routing transformation.
The initial phase of this work has focused on optimizing our current routing, with pilot markets realizing a 6% improvement in cases per mile while driving on-time delivery performance close to 90%. The next phase of this work will upgrade our routing technology, enabling US Foods to offer dynamic delivery windows and real-time visibility to a customer order, both of which improve service and further reduce miles and cost. We're excited about the early results these initiatives have delivered, and we expect results to improve further over time. Lastly, I wanna take an opportunity to thank our frontline associates for their tireless work and dedication to taking care of each other and our customers. We truly have the best team in the industry, and we are fully committed to helping all of our associates be successful. With that, I'll turn it back to Pietro.
Thanks, Bill. As you can see, Bill brings tremendous focus, experience, and leadership to our operations. I will now turn the call over to Dirk to discuss our results for the fourth quarter and the year, as well as to provide more color on the long-range plan I just covered. Dirk, over to you.
Thank you, Pietro, and good morning. I'll give a brief recap on 2021 and then discuss our financial outlook for 2022 and 2024. I'll start on page 6. Fourth quarter financial results were in line with our expectations. Our Q4 and fiscal year 2021 results were a significant improvement over prior year, and we ended the year with a solid foundation for further growth. Q4 net sales were $7.6 billion, which was an increase of 32% over the prior year. You'll likely recall that Q4 2020 had an extra week, which increased that period's sales approximately 700 basis points. The 32% growth excludes the extra week. Total case growth increased 13% and 21% for independent restaurants.
We produced very strong gross profit dollar growth again this quarter with our highest gross profit per case of the year as our team very effectively managed inflation and optimized pricing more broadly. This caps a strong year as fiscal 2021 GP per case was the highest we've had since becoming a public company. Supply chain challenges continued through Q4, similar to others in our industry. Despite these challenges, we remain fully staffed in almost all markets and are continuing to build staffing for expected volume growth acceleration this year. We remain focused on increasing productivity of those hired in recent months. As Bill noted, we've seen improvement in productivity during Q4 and expect further improvements in 2022 and reaching 2019 productivity levels around mid-year.
Our supply chain cost was higher in Q4 than Q3, mainly due to more associates earning sign-on and retention bonuses, inflation, hiring in preparation for continued volume increases, and retaining additional staff as a bit of an insurance policy. We successfully refinanced $2.7 billion of debt in 2021, taking advantage of attractive market conditions to further strengthen our balance sheet by extending tenor and replacing more of our secured floating rate debt with unsecured fixed rate debt. Finally, we significantly improved our debt leverage this year with a three-turn reduction in leverage to 4.6x at year-end. On Slide 7, as I mentioned, Q4 net sales increased 32% over 2020, and within sales, volume grew 13% excluding the extra week in 2020. Food inflation was 14.4%, and the remainder was related to sales mix.
Our independent restaurant volume increased 20% excluding the extra week. We saw acceleration earlier in the quarter before Omicron impacts, which bodes well for 2022. Q4 ends a year of significant sales and volume improvement over 2020. Full year total volume was up 19% and independent volume up 30%, each excluding the extra week in 2020. Adjusted EBITDA was $262 million for the quarter, a 51% increase over the prior year. We estimate the extra week in Q4 of 2020 increased EBITDA by $8 million. Excluding the extra week, Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 increased 58% over prior year. Q4 Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of sales increased to 3.4%. For the full year, our Adjusted EBITDA increased 65%, and EBITDA margin increased 70 basis points compared to 2020.
We did experience limited impact from Omicron in December, and the more significant impact is in Q1 2022, which we think will be temporary. The Q4 P&L outcome was largely in line with our expectations. No real surprises in the way the quarter played out. Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.38 and full year $1.55 per share, each up significantly over the prior year. Lastly, specific to Food Group, most of the integration was completed by the end of 2021. We have the last system conversion plan for this coming weekend, and we are on track and confident to achieve $65 million in synergies. Future discussions of Food Group will be incorporated into our discussions of the overall business. Operating cash flow for the fiscal year was $419 million, similar to prior year.
In 2021, working capital was $300 million plus use of cash as a result of receivables growth due to the significant growth in sales, while 2020 had the benefit of approximately $200 million working capital reduction due to lower sales. Our business has historically generated a significant amount of operating cash flow, and we expect to grow that cash flow with EBITDA over time. As I've already highlighted, we further strengthen our balance sheet as we decreased our leverage in fiscal 2021 to 4.6x, and we are well on our way toward our target net leverage ratio of 2.5x-3x. Turning to 2022, we expect continued increases in volume and earnings through the execution of our strategic initiatives to grow market share, increase gross margins, and improve operational efficiencies.
One point to call out is you will hear me talk about a higher 2022 adjusted diluted EPS range than we initially included in our press release earlier this morning. The numbers I'm talking about are correct, and the press release has been updated to reflect these numbers. We expect to grow volume at 1.5 times the market for restaurants and grow at market for the remaining customer types. We expect to deliver $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA and $1.95-$2.25 adjusted diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2022. Omicron appears to be largely in the rearview mirror. However, it has had a meaningful impact on volume and supply chain costs in Q1 and likely to a more limited extent in Q2.
We also plan to continue to temporarily carry additional supply chain headcount to ensure adequate staffing and service levels in the event of another impact from COVID. Our outlook range reflects these Omicron-related costs and impacts, which we estimate at $80 million-$90 million. Going forward, we are optimistic about the continued rapid recovery of our business post Omicron. If the U.S. does not have another significant COVID wave, we expect to be at the higher end of the earnings range. The lower end of the range takes into account the possibility of another similar wave. Specific to Q1 2022 and the Omicron impact, we are experiencing reduced volume and incremental supply chain costs. We've seen volume improve the last couple of weeks and are very encouraged it will continue to improve through Q1.
Decline appears to mostly be driven by customer staffing challenges and we believe that the end customer demand will be robust as Omicron subsides. Historically, our Q1 EBITDA is lower than other quarters of the year at approximately 20% of our annual EBITDA dollars. With most of the Omicron impact expected in Q1, we expect Q1 EBITDA to be a lower percent of our full-year EBITDA than normal this year. Assuming there's not another significant wave and macro volume improvement occurs, especially in healthcare and hospitality, we expect volume to return to 2019 levels sometime in H2. In 2022, we expect Adjusted EBITDA margins to improve over fiscal 2021, along with continued strong gross profit per case and increased operational efficiencies. We continue to expect supply chain productivity to return to 2019 levels mid-year and surpassed by year-end.
We're focused on returning our Adjusted EBITDA margin to pre-COVID levels and increasing it further in the coming years. Prior to the pandemic, we grew EBITDA margins 90 basis points or a 25% improvement from 2015 to 2019 and expect to build upon that track record. We're also providing additional guidance on interest expense and CapEx, cash CapEx. As we significantly increase earnings in 2022, we expect to further reduce debt and as a result, be near 3.5 times leverage by year-end. As Pietro said, we're executing a multiyear plan to deliver significant earnings growth from the combination of profitable volume growth and margin expansion. As we look further ahead to 2024, we expect to continue growing at 1.5 times the market for restaurants and at market for other customer types.
We expect Adjusted EBITDA to grow to roughly $1.5 billion in 2023, and then reach approximately $1.7 billion in 2024 as a result of executing our balanced plan. We will likely be near or at 2019 EBITDA margins in 2023, and then exceed in 2024 as we return to an expectation of EBITDA margin improvement each year. Adjusted diluted EPS is estimated to be approximately $3.40 in 2024. CapEx is estimated at 1.3%-1.4% of sales. With respect to leverage, we plan to reach our target leverage range of 2.5x-3x in 2023 and remain in that range. As we approach the range, we will further evaluate return of capital options such as share repurchases.
Our focus is on executing the plan to achieve these 2024 targets. However, beyond 2024, we would likely expect a 6%-7% Adjusted EBITDA growth algorithm. I'd like to reiterate the relative contributions of the various pillars of our strategy as they contribute to our expected EBITDA growth. While we won't be breaking down the quantified impact of each initiative, we have provided impacts for each bucket of the plan, which reflect the combined contribution of initiatives that Pietro, Andrew, and Bill discussed. We expect to generate nearly $650 million of Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2024 compared to 2021. We expect the contributions of our increased earnings to be significant for each of these pillars.
Volume is expected to contribute an estimated $290 million, gross margin expansion, approximately $325 million, and OpEx efficiency, approximately $235 million, which is incremental to the $130 million of fixed cost reductions completed in 2020. We have annual OpEx cost inflation that we must mitigate through productivity and gross margin increases. OpEx inflation is estimated a total of about $210 million over the three years. Pietro, Andrew, and Bill covered the key drivers in each pillar, so I won't repeat them. We successfully grew independent restaurants at approximately 2x the market rate and increased gross margin per case more than OpEx per case, driving operating leverage gains over multiple years pre-pandemic, so we knew how to do this well.
Our new operating model gives us line of sight through initiatives already underway to improve execution on cost reduction. As you've heard, we are especially focused on supply chain, where we have new leadership with strong capabilities. We are confident in our ability to deliver strong Adjusted EBITDA growth via continued share gains, further gross margin improvement, and a more intense focus on operational efficiency. These increased earnings will produce strong and growing cash flows, which we think can then prudently allocate to reinvest in the business, reduce leverage, return capital to shareholders, and opportunistically pursue tuck-in M&A. We estimate this will lead to adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $3.40 per share, which is more than a 40% increase over FY 2019. Pietro, back to you.
Thanks, Dirk. I hope you all share in our excitement in our long range plan and what the future holds for US Foods. Our plan is bold, achievable, and it builds on a very strong foundation. The progress we have made, the initiatives currently underway, and our talented and dedicated team of leaders and frontline associates give me great confidence that we will deliver on the plan we outlined and create significant value for our shareholders. We will now open the call for Q&A.
Thank you, sir. As a reminder to ask a question, you'll need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of John Glass from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. You know, one way to look at your business, I think some have framed is look at comparing your business to your largest competitor, Sysco, and thinking about the gap in margins that you have and your desire to close a part of that, maybe not all of it, maybe 75% of it. Can you talk about how you put that in the context of your plan for 2024? It doesn't seem like it closes that entire gap, but do you see that as a feasible opportunity over time? I've got a follow-up, please. Thanks.
Sure. Thank you, John. Good morning and good question. Our job, first of all, and what we're focused on, is executing our plan, which generates, as you heard us talk about, meaningful value based on a combination of margin expansion and volume growth. We're not gonna speculate specifically on how much for the progress of things that are outside of our control, i.e., others, peers. This plan does include additional margin expansion on top of what we've done in recent years. Like I said, we expect the plan to generate over $600 million and 40% higher adjusted diluted EPS than 2019. We're confident we'll deliver value through the combination of this volume growth and margin expansion.
If I could follow up and forgive me if this is wrong, but I think your CapEx as a percentage of sales in your target is higher than it has been historically. Is that right? Does this plan, I guess, more broadly require more capital spending to improve operational efficiencies in warehouse and fleet, et cetera?
The range, when you get to 2024, it's a little bit higher than it was, say, in 2019. Very similar, I think, to the point of maybe a 10th. That contemplates some modest increase potentially for some beginning of some warehouse automation, et cetera, b ut it is not an extremely heavy capital-intensive plan out there other than, you know, again, some limited areas. Expect to continue to generate strong cash flows.
Got it. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of John Heinbockel from Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Two things. Let me start with, you didn't give. You obviously talked about 1.5 times the market. You know, you didn't give specific revenue targets. Do you think, you know, 4%-5%, is that a fair growth rate beyond the recovery by 2023, 2024? When I think about the 290, right, and incremental margin, you know, what's a fair incremental margin on, you know, whether it's 4%, 5%, 6%? You know, is it high single digit, or is that too high on the revenue growth?
Good morning, John, this is Dirk. Good question. I think that the reason we stayed away from specific numbers is that's more feasible in order to be accurate during a more stable period. In a period of recovery like this, really what our focus is relative to what the market does. It's really growing with especially our key target customers or the restaurants, and within there, especially the independents, I mean, target customer types. Although we haven't given a specific number, that really is, it's kind of indexed to how Technomic is calling for the outlook, and would expect, you know, again, meaningful growth on that. No, it's not a specific number, but that's how we thought about and why we're focused on relative to the market and others.
Yeah. Maybe follow up on that and tie into my last question. Again, when you think about it, look at that 2.90%, right? I know it depends, right? If it's drop size, the margin is higher. If it's new account wins, it's lower. You know, just as a thought process, how you guys think about incremental margin on new business, it obviously has to be greater than, you know, the 3.5% that you said today. Then lastly, the 3.25% of gross profit, right? If you broke that down, I think procurement and mix is probably the two biggest components. Is that heavily skewed to procurement? You know, is it maybe two-thirds procurement, one-third mix? What's the biggest bucket in the gross profit dollar improvement?
Sure. On the volume growth, we look at, to your point, we do look at new volume higher than our overall EBITDA margins. It really is kind of dependent on the specific customer types. As you remember, our independents are the most profitable in healthcare and hospitality. The chain business that we've brought on has been meaningfully more profitable than that we've had in the past, which has allowed us to be more opportunistic with our growth there. We do expect it to be higher than our overall EBITDA number. With respect to your gross margin, you're right, procurement is a meaningful part that is within there. I think the other two things that I would call out and talk about that at least one of them Andrew talked about is pricing and customer profitability optimization.
Some of it is from the tool that he talked about. Some of it comes from the success that we are having, expect to continue to have with lower margin, large customer improvements. The third piece is around logistics. Our inbound logistics, optimizing, that's another form of cost of goods, but it's about optimizing our inbound cost of goods, and that is a key focus area for us as well. Those are the key largest pieces of it.
Okay, thank you.
Thanks.
Your next question is from Peter Saleh from BTIG. Your line is open.
Great, thank you. In 2021, you guys had about a 15% reduction in your assortment or the SKU rationalization. Just curious if you could elaborate a little bit on, is that part of the plan going forward in 2022, 2023, and 2024 to get to your EBITDA targets? Do you anticipate reducing the SKU counts even further or is that the most we're gonna see is 15%?
We do anticipate further reduction in the assortment over the course of time, and that helps in a number of ways. It helps provide better service to the customers by reducing the volatility that you see typically in the slower moving part of the tail. It also helps streamline operations, which helps contribute to improved distribution cost per case.
Are there any targets on that in terms of should we expect you guys to be, you know, 30% lower or 25% or anything that we can hang our hat on?
Yeah, obviously we have our internal targets, but we're not prepared to discuss them on this call.
Understood. Okay, and just lastly for me, is the private label expansion also part of this strategy? I mean, where do you expect to be, in 2024 in terms of the private label mix versus where we are today?
Yeah, maybe I'll toss that to Andrew. He's really driven the EB growth of the last few years. So Andrew, how would you answer that?
Yeah, thanks for the question, Peter. I think we have a, you know, tremendous focus on growing our EB penetration. It's something we made great progress on pre-COVID, and then supply interruptions sort of stalled that progress. But it's great to see in Q4 resumption of pretty strong year-over-year growth, and we anticipate that continuing and being an important part of our strategy over the next three years and beyond.
Thank you very much.
Your next question is from the line of Brian Mullan from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Okay, thank you. Just wanna confirm, did you say Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.5 billion in 2023? I think I heard that. You know, just if yes, you know, using the high end of the 2022 guide, it would imply you expect Adjusted EBITDA growth of about 15% in 2023, you know, followed by another 13% or 14% again in 2024. I think expecting outsized EBITDA growth, you know, next year when you're lapping over what is still a COVID impacted environment right now, I think people can get their arms around that. But as far as 2024, can you just speak to what will be the biggest driver of that outsized growth that you expect to take place that following year, you know, between volumes growth, profit, gross profit, OpEx efficiency?
Is one item the most important or do you have outsized confidence in as you look out to 2024?
Thank you. A good question. Yes, no, you're correct. The $1.5 billion is what I noted for 2023. I think that so to your point, in the 2023, you have a lot of recovery that still occurs, whether it be the rebound from the, as you heard me talk about, the meaningful amount of Omicron impact this year, as well as healthcare and hospitality recovery, which is likely not fully back to normal this year. I think as we get further through that, we see more of the initiatives take hold across gross margin around the fresh accelerators of volume that Andrew talked about and the supply chain improvements there. There's not a single thing that I would call out as opposed to continued execution and you know feeling good about our ability to deliver the $1.7 billion.
Okay. Thank you. Just a follow-up question on just balance sheet capital allocation as it relates to the guide. You know, you expect net leverage to get back in the 2.5-3 turns range in 2023. It appears like you expect it to stay in that range for 2024 as well. If that's right, I'm wondering if there are any share repurchases contemplated in that adjusted EPS guide of $3.40 in 2024. You know, if net leverage stays flat from 2023 to 2024, I'm just curious what the plan is for the free cash flow.
Sure. Good question. You're right. We're happy to, you know, expect to be in that range next year and then stay there. As I said, we'll explore other returns similar to what we've talked about in the past. More likely, you know, starting with share repurchases. As we get closer to the range, we'll do that work. For assumptions here, we've assumed some levels of repurchases beginning, and look forward to hearing more from us as we get closer to that range.
Thank you.
Your next question is from the line of Kelly Bania from BMO Capital. Your line is open.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking our questions and for all the color. Wanted to just ask about the fiscal 2024 plan, the $1.7 billion EBITDA target. I guess, what would you consider the biggest risk, you know, from an internal execution standpoint to achieving that? You know, obviously aside from, you know, external factors, you know, COVID and new variants and so forth.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, Kelly. The main risks that we anticipate are more external and macro-focused, whether it's new variants or economic conditions. From an internal execution perspective, we feel very confident in our ability to execute, you know, in part because of some of the things we've mentioned. You know, we're in some ways a bit of a different company from three or four years ago, thanks to having prototyped some of these initiatives and the results we see, the impact of the operating model that I talked about and some of the talent that we've brought into the company.
Okay. Just another follow-up. I think I heard the algorithm beyond fiscal 2024, 6%-7% Adjusted EBITDA growth. I just was curious, I believe, you know, the 2018 Analyst Day outlined a 9%-11% path. What are the big factors that lead to that being lower to the kind of prior algorithm?
Sure. Good morning, Kelly. Appreciate the question. I think in the prior Investor Day, that was more focused on the nearer term and some of the opportunities there. Really the intent, since our focus right now is on executing this plan through 2024, which you've heard us say multiple times, we're excited and expect significant value creation from it. The 2024, you're right, the 6%-7% was really to give people a sense of post that. We will obviously refine it as we get closer to there. Really to indicate more that we do expect meaningful growth to continue as we get beyond 2024.
Thank you.
Your next question is from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you. Two questions. One, just from a top line perspective, the market share gains, you talked about one and a half times the industry for the pure play restaurant industry. Just wondering, obviously that's a moving target, how do you arrive at a target like that? Maybe what's the outperformance been in past years? Is that assuming any M&A? Maybe what do you assume the industry is growing? Anything to at least in a more normalized period, what is the assumption that this 1.5 times is against?
Sure. Good morning, Jeffrey. It's a blend of what we expect on the independent restaurant and the national chain side. You know, if you go back to the four years leading to COVID, we pretty consistently performed at twice the market from an independent restaurant perspective. The 1.5 is in part based on that experience. On the restaurant side, as we've talked about, we've had really good success. On the chain side of the restaurant business, we've had really good success over the last couple of years. When we look at our pipeline, we expect that to continue probably on the lower side of the 1.5, which is how we get to that blend.
Gotcha. The fiscal 2024 EBITDA, you give those three big pillars to drive that incremental gain over the next three years. Just wondering if maybe you could provide some color on the sequencing of that. Maybe what you see as the biggest near term opportunity versus what you think is going to take, you know, be more of a back end story, kind of how you see those buckets of $200 million-$300 million each playing out over the next few years. Thank you.
Thank you. Good morning. I think when we think of it, really all three of the buckets we think of as a pretty steady stream. I say that because a number of things. You heard Andrew and Bill each talk about an example, so maybe I'll build on those. You know, the example on whether it's routing, for example, there's a shorter term impact, and then there's a longer term impact that's enabled by additional technology and process. Pricing has a similar with some of the things we're doing around pricing and customer optimization now, and then that's enabled further by the enhanced pricing tool that is an upgrade over the one that we've had in place for a number of years.
As we look ahead, really each of those, there isn't a hockey stick or extremely different phasing as opposed to we expect incremental value to come out of all of them over the three years.
Understood. Thank you.
Thanks, Jeff.
Your next question is from the line of Joshua Long from Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you. Encouraged to hear about the private brand growth. Curious if you might be able to give us an actual base of sort of, or mix or however you're thinking about it, in terms of where you are now with private brand. I think earlier I heard you say, something along the lines of 110 basis points of growth, but just curious what the actual mix of that segment of the business was.
Sure. Good morning. We were at about 34% of sales from private brand for this year, which we do include that in our 10-K. I think that what I'll just build on what Pietro talked about earlier is, you know, that is an area that is both with smaller with the independents as well as the national customers, an area of focus for us and a value driver in our plan for the next three years. If you remember, we grew, you know, call it 70-100 basis points in the multiple years leading up to it. We've talked about that we don't see a ceiling and a lot of opportunity.
That remains an area of focus for us and especially in this time frame with the inflation, because it tends to be a double win from a customer perspective. It's a better value, and for us it is higher margin.
Great. Thank you for that. Maybe on that inflation point, curious if you've seen any sort of abatement here of late or just kind of what your latest take is on the inflationary environment? As you've gone through your pricing work with consumers and laid out your tools, any sort of pushback or commentary in terms of just how your end consumers are being able to manage the inflationary environments as well?
I'll start with the consumer side and then turn it over to Dirk in terms of what we expect. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've been very successful in terms of passing on inflation both to non-contract and contract customers. I think the general environment has made it possible to have conversations in off cycle that we normally wouldn't have. And you've seen that, you know, those increases reflected in menu prices as you dine out or take out. One of the things that's perhaps a little bit different than historically is when we look at inflation in our channel relative to inflation in the grocery channel, it's been roughly the same.
In fact, over the last few months, inflation in the grocery channel has been even higher than inflation in our channel. You know, we're not disadvantaged from that position. Consumers have to eat. They may change a little bit the mix of what they eat based on inflation. The two channels have kind of stayed consistent with each other. Dirk, do you wanna talk about the expectations going forward?
Sure. Thanks. Good morning. You know, I think so my crystal ball is probably gonna be just as accurate as anybody else's since we're not quite sure exactly how it plays out. A couple things I will tell you from the data points as we look at it is the year-over-year inflation as we go back over the past few quarters. Sequential inflation quarter-to-quarter has slowed in each of the quarters, which we think is a positive toward hopefully price stabilization. We would expect inflation to remain higher here in 2022 with likely some incremental inflation here in the earlier part of the year and additional stabilization as we get further into the year. I think the thing that's hard to predict for anybody is, does it then just stagnate and stay at that higher level or do you see any kind of reduction in that going forward?
Great. That's helpful. Thank you. When we think about the labor front as well, excited to hear about some of the initiatives you have outlined on the labor front to support these longer-term targets. Curious if you could provide a little bit more color there and just in terms of what you're seeing, how the pipeline may be on the driver or the warehouse side is shaping up and any sort of other initiatives that are embedded to make sure that you have the human capital side to support these targets that you've outlined today.
Yeah, I think that's. Sorry, go ahead, Dirk.
I was gonna say, maybe I'll start and then hand it over to Bill for any insights on the driver pipeline. Ultimately, as you heard Bill talk about, we will continue to be staffed in the fourth quarter. You know, we didn't use a lot of temporary resources, but even further reduced that, say, in the fourth quarter. Very optimistic on the progress that we've been seeing there. But Bill can comment more specifically on drivers. I think when we talk about inflation and the sort of wage inflation, we talked a lot about this last year. You know, transitory has been a word that we've used that has been used in a lot of different ways.
I think, you know, the way we talked from Q3 was the higher level of inflation, some of it temporary, some of it permanent, was likely transitory in the sense that we didn't think, and don't think that that becomes the new norm, as opposed to some higher inflation, and then we return to more normal levels. What we had estimated on top of the kind of normal $50 million or so of inflation that we see for supply chain in a given year is an additional $40 million-$60 million annual impact with a combination of wage increases and signing and retention bonuses. We'd indicated that we expect most of that to be permanent. Our outlook on the range and on the ratio hasn't changed since then.
What I'll tell you, though, is, when we talked about an expectation for covering most, if not all of that through margin improvements with lower profitability customers, our confidence is, stronger than ever that we're able to do that as we continue to see good progress. Bill, anything you wanna add on or would you add on driver, and warehouse staffing?
Yeah, a couple of key points I would add. You know, I would say, like most supply chains, we found ourselves behind in the first quarter of 2021 on driver and warehouse staffing. You know, we put a lot of very intentional work into how we recruit, how we hire, how we train, you know, intentional investments and sign-on bonuses, wage adjustments to make sure that we're competitive. We saw the kind of the return on that work, which, you know, like Dirk said, you know, we've come into 2022 fully staffed.
Specific to drivers, we don't expect the shortage of drivers to go away anytime soon, which is why we stood up our driver training program, where we can take an existing warehouse worker or somebody off the street and put them through a fully funded driver training program and create our own CDL pipeline. We're gonna stay really close to that. You know, like I said, we expect continued volatility on the labor front, and we're gonna make sure we're prepared to staff our business.
Thank you.
Your next question is from the line of Lauren Silberman from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Hi. Thank you, guys. Just the first, I believe you implied pro forma 2029 EBITDA was $1.45 billion. Can I confirm that's what you were saying?
Good morning, Lauren. Yes, that's correct. When we talk about pro forma, it's been in the context of how we've talked about it with you, other analysts, investors, that contemplates the synergies, inflation, new business wins, et cetera, and that's what we've then estimated it at.
Okay. Looking at 2023 EBITDA of $1.5 billion, which is full recovery of volume plus the $180 million in cost savings, and then understanding some of the incremental investments that you guys have talked about, can you walk us through the difference between the 2019 pro forma $1.5 billion and the 2023 $1.5 billion? Just trying to wrap my head around what some of those dynamics are.
I mean, it's, thank you. It's many of the same elements we've talked about. It's the combination of realizing a number of the synergies from the transactions. It is incremental with volume recovery. It is some of the wins with national sales. It is multiple years of cost inflation. It is the cost savings that you've mentioned. Really is all those things there. That's the way I think the way you maybe started is the way I would think about it is it's maybe not getting all the way back in the exact same way, but it's basically back to where the business was and sort of the platform for growth there beyond.
Okay. Got it. On the growth margin piece, I understand there's some noise with the actual growth margin percentage given the inflation and how the numbers work. Can you talk about what's embedded in your growth margin percentage expectation for if you expect to get back to 2019, I think 17.8%?
Sure, happy to do that. I think that, when we look ahead, you know, what's harder to predict is in the period of inflation that we're in, what happens exactly on that. That really drives, as you just alluded to, how gross margins versus OpEx as a percent of sales play out. It doesn't change EBITDA impact. I'd rather stay away from that specifically. What I will say, though, is specific to our plan for 2024, what we expect to do is to get EBITDA margins sort of at or near 2019 levels in 2023 and then exceed those EBITDA margin levels in 2024 through a number of initiatives around operating efficiency as well as gross margin expansion.
Okay, thanks. Just my last question, can you give us an update on the business mix for 2021 across the different channels?
Sure, happy to. I'm gonna actually -
Yeah, Lauren, it's Melissa Napier. Do you mind if that's something that we can follow up on with you afterwards? We still have a lot of people in our queue that we wanna get through.
Sure.
Okay.
Thanks, Lauren.
Thank you, guys.
Yep.
Your next question is from the line of Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Yeah. Hi, everybody. Good morning. First thing I just wanted to ask about the 2022 outlook, you know, the $1.25 billion midpoint of EBITDA, which, you know, obviously has been already talked about, right? It's below 2019 pro forma levels. But there's a lot of optimism around sort of like, you know, spring, summer period. You've obviously talked about share gains. I'm just kinda curious as to why, you know, volumes wouldn't get back 2018 levels earlier than maybe the back half. Then from a cost perspective, how much of like unusual costs are still sitting in this 2022 guidance number? I'm just really trying to bridge sort of like the, you know, the '22 number, you know, being below the '19 number by the amount that it is still.
Sure, Ed. Good morning. Good question. I think that a couple things I would highlight, one is really that to your point with the 1.2- 1.3 as I commented that, you know, absent another COVID wave like Omicron, we would expect to be at the higher end of that range. I think that and within, you know, that we've embedded roughly $80 million-$90 million of impact from Omicron. That gives you a jumping point from where sort of that range is, you know, plus the additional amount.
We aren't gonna talk today about specific amounts that we've embedded in there, but I think it is not an insignificant amount in the first half of the year, especially as we're still working to get productivity back to 2019, similar to a number of our peers. I think the thing that we are expecting is we expect steady improvements in our EBITDA versus 2019 as the year goes on and expect to make meaningful progress. I think what you see from there is if we expect, which we are, roughly $1.5 billion of EBITDA next year, that means a healthy exit rate for this year.
Dirk, can I add a little bit in terms of some of the points I've made in terms of volume and supply chain and why the ramp that perhaps is not what you would have expected? I'll talk about volume first. We're in a very good place from a restaurant perspective. Hospitality and healthcare, as we've said in the past, we do expect volume to recover, but the timing is a bit uncertain, right? I mean, healthcare has flatlined a little bit, driven by senior living. We expect, you know, demographic trends are extremely favorable, but it'll take time for healthcare to recover. With hospitality, similarly, you know, we've seen a recovery on the leisure side of things. There's other parts of hospitality that have not yet recovered and will take some time.
That's a little bit of the volume story. On the operational expense side, primarily in distribution, as Bill mentioned, you know, the percent of workers in our buildings, and you've heard this from others in the industry, is abnormally high. It just takes time to get those new associates to the level of productivity that then drives meaningfully lower cost per case. Those two factors, in addition to the Q1 Omicron impact that Dirk referred to, are what is driving perhaps a ramp that is not one one might have modeled or expected.
Okay. Just to follow up, you know, Pietro for you. Can you maybe just take a step back for us and talk about, you know, some of the strategic adjustments that you're making to the business? You know, there's been talk maybe about a CLO in the press. Obviously, you know, there's been a pitch today. Could use some more supply chain management muscle, strategically, right? Are you making any adjustments to, you know, things that, you know, that you plan to do? I mean, sometimes external pressure, you know, can create like a rethink, right? I'm just kinda curious, you know, what's changing on that front.
Sure. Maybe what I'll do, Ed, is add a little bit of color to the three things I talked about earlier that really increase our level of confidence in the plan, as I said to Kelly earlier, reduce the execution risk. So the first is this operating model. You know, historically when we drove an initiative, things might get you know, regionalized or customized in a way that kinda slowed things down. What these operations and commercial excellence teams that sit inside Bill and Andrew's area is, you know, they drive best practices. For example, we have a, I call him the assortment czar, Brent Wilson, and that's all he does. He works with the field to put that in place.
We've seen progress on those initiatives and standardization unlike what we've seen before. That operating model is really critical, and it's been extremely well received by the field. That's number one. Talent. You've heard from Bill today. Bill has on his team new logistics person, new continuous improvement person, new technology person who comes from Amazon. You know, the new folks on my team have brought with them some really good talent, and that's gonna change the trajectory. The third is, you know, having more of an agile approach when we launch these initiatives, making sure we prototype and iterate, get customer feedback, that's embedded in the operating model, and that's something else that has been adopted. And all three of those changes, the talent, the op model, and the agile approach have we really put in place, you know, early in 2021 and-
Getting one competitor or another as we look to drive that business forward.
Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Can you remind us of where online penetration stands today? As we hopefully emerge from the pandemic, do you think there's still much room to grow penetration in the near to intermediate term? Or are you just getting closer to maturity on the proportion of your business that you can do digitally, just giving you a head start on that front? Thanks.
We're at 80% today. We still see opportunity to grow that. In fact, we are working on our next release for our digital platform, which is being piloted right now and been very well received. As I talked about, further supplementing that is our marketplace, which helps create an added reason to go to our digital platform.
Great. Thanks very much, guys.
Your next question is from Alex Slagle from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning. Wanted to follow up on some of the previous comments around the growth expectations relative to the market. I think we kinda know the reasons, but I mean, those other non-restaurant segments, kind of what makes it so hard to outpace the market there and, you know, what are some of the opportunities to maybe see some better share gains in those categories?
Sure. Good question. I think that maybe I'll focus primarily on when you talk about the non-restaurants on healthcare and hospitality, which are our target customer types, because there are a number of things that show up in the marketplace that are not our focus. With healthcare and hospitality, we have a strong presence there. We have a differentiated offering with people. Our expectation there is to grow a little bit above the market in those spaces where it's our focus area and other areas like local schools. K-12 is an area where it has added complexity. They tend to not be as profitable, et cetera, and we would expect to grow below the market there.
The way to think about it is, even though it's at market, it's an expectation of above market and are more attractive target customer types and below market and those that are less attractive in order to optimize the value that we generate.
That makes sense. On the new national business, how much of this $1 billion that you gained or won in 2021, how much of that comes online in 2022 in terms of the magnitude? I know you hadn't really had the staffing, you know, all in place. Maybe that held it back some in 2021.
Not a lot of it. Most of it has been in some either through 2020 or 2021. You know, the other thing on the national, I guess, that I would just add in is the thing that we're excited about is our pipeline on these attractive national customers is just as strong for this time of year as it's been the last two years. When we talk about just attractively adding in, especially healthcare hospitality chains, we're bullish about our ability to continue to attract net new customers.
Just a quick clarification on the 2024 guide. I think it assumes accretive tuck-in M&A. Is there a magnitude of accretion baked into that $3.40 EPS target?
It does not assume tuck-in M&A. This is an all organic plan. Just because we've talked about being more opportunistic, what we decided to focus on was the organic and the way we would deploy our cash. In those cases, if we have the right tuck-ins that come in, they would be incremental.
All right. Thank you.
Thanks.
We have time for two more questions. Your next question is from John Ivankoe from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Hi. Thank you. I was wondering if, you know, some of the conversations with restaurants, you know, may have shifted, you know, to more value-added products that would allow them to reduce the use of labor further in their own operations. Whether using exclusive brands or whether using, you know, manufacturer brands, you know, if that is an opportunity that you have, you know, I guess specifically now, and whether an opportunity like that would fit into some of the SKU or assortment reductions that you've discussed.
Good morning, John. Yeah. One of the major thrust of our SKU program has been on labor saving products. We believe that with the resources that support those, the salespeople, you know, the restaurant operations consultants is something that truly distinguishes us versus our competitors in the industry, and one that has been really welcomed by our customers.
In terms of a reduction in the overall assortment that you plan to offer, I mean, I know you've quoted some percents there.
Yeah. As I said earlier, John, we, you know, we really good success this year, probably, you know, better than a number of years combined leading into this year. A lot of that credit goes to the operating model we put in place. We have goals to further optimize the assortment, you know, focusing on the duplication that exists within a DC or some of the harder to manage tail items with the lower value customers where we don't necessarily get the return from them and end up making Bill's job on the supply chain side harder. Again, not ready to disclose any specific goals, but definitely meaningful reduction in this part of our playbook going forward.
Thank you.
Your next question is from Jake Bartlett from Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks for taking the question and sneaking me in here. You know, my first was on really what we might think of transitory costs, you know, in 2021. You know, we've heard from others as well, there's overtime, there's maybe temporary staffing costs, there's bonuses that you know, I think probably-
Jake, you cut out.
I hope it's not us. Operator, do you need help? No, that's it.
Mr. Bartlett, please press star one again to queue for question. Your line is open, Mr. Bartlett.
Great. Sorry, I'm not sure what happened there. The question is on the transitory costs that I would have thought would be in 2021, and others have talked about, you know, slipping costs around overtime, you know, the bonuses you've talked about, that do seem kind of something that wouldn't recur, maybe, temporary staffing agencies using those. But where is that reflected in this bridge? I'm looking at the bridge from 2021 to 2024 EBITDA. You know, would that be captured in OpEx efficiencies? I just don't see kind of a bar there, what I might expect, you know, as you kind of lap some of those kind of one-time costs.
Sure. A good question, Jake. I think that yes, it is in the OpEx efficiency line there. I think when you think about our transitory temporary type of costs, as our peers have talked about it, the level that we incurred in the fourth quarter is not dissimilar to theirs. I call it in the neighborhood of, you know, $40 million, maybe $50 million. Very similar, and that comes from whether it's temporary staffing, the additional training hours, the signing and retention bonuses, all those kinds of things, as you would think about in there, and that we would expect, as you called out, to go away as we continue to get our individuals that have been on more productive and staffed up to a more normal level as we go ahead.
Great. Thanks. My next question is about the gross profits per case. Obviously, you know, very strong, you know, I think the strongest since 2016. It seems like that's being driven, you know, in part by just supply chain disruption, you know, and just driving really strong pricing power for you and your peers. You know, how sustainable is that? I'm thinking about, you know, that I mean, that seems like that could be a risk, I mean, especially if we see some deflation from product costs. You know, how confident are you that what looks to be kind of an outsized gross profit per case, you know, really can continue long term?
We do think that gross profits do stay stronger over the longer term than they were historically, in part because of, you know, a meaningful portion of this inflation is likely to stay, but also labor costs are different than they were a few years back. As you pointed out, it's hard to say exactly the amount as we see what plays out with inflation, deflation. I think over time we do expect through the processes the margin improvements we've had from individual customers, et cetera, gross profit to remain stronger and TBD on exactly where it lands. The same, I think, would be the case for the broader industry.
Great. My last question is just on the customer kind of segment. I'm looking at a chart on the page 16, look at those lines, and as I eyeball it, you know, it looks like kind of all other, which I believe includes chain restaurants, a big chunk of it, really, you know, is negative versus, you know, lapping a negative and really decelerated sharply on a two-year basis. It seems like maybe those numbers are kind of not adjusted for the operating week in the fourth quarter of 2021 and are in 2022. But just if you could talk about the trajectory of that big slice of the customer base, you know, really what's happening there.
I would've thought that some of the gains that the $1 billion in new business would have come in, you know, in that customer type as well, kind of helping to grow cases there.
That would be. You're right, that would include some of the chain, and that would help that. The other thing that, again, that I would call out is school volumes have continued to remain lower than they were before. I think the other thing that does cloud that as you go through 2020 into really the middle of 2021 is some of the retail support business that we and others picked up. In our case, we picked up, and most of that was temporary in the sense was gone by the end of 2020. We did have some portion that remained just in through the earlier part of Q3, and it is fully gone now. Those are the main reasons for it.
Got it. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
I will now turn the call back to Pietro Satriano.
Thanks everyone for tuning in. Appreciate all the questions. Hopefully, you have the same level of excitement and energy and a better level of understanding about our plans. Again, apologies for the delay earlier today, and we look forward to continuing our conversations.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.