Welcome back, everyone. Next, we have Vista Gold Corp., which trades on the New York Stock Exchange American under the symbol VGZ and on the TSX under the symbol VGZ. It holds the Mt Todd gold project, an advanced development stage gold deposit located in the low-risk, tier-one, mining-friendly jurisdiction of Northern Territory, Australia. Happy to welcome its CEO, Fred Earnest. Nice to see you again, Fred. Welcome to the conference. The floor is yours.
Good morning. Thank you. It's a pleasure to be back. There's been a lot of exciting things happening since our last opportunity to appear on the conference. This morning, I will be making some forward-looking statements, but let's just jump into things. Since we had the opportunity to present last, we've made some very significant announcements, and I'm very excited about those announcements. In fact, the study that we announced at the end of July represents a paradigm shift in the development strategy for the Mt Todd . Previously, we have looked at Mt Todd as a very large-scale, 50,000-ton-per-day operation, given the size of the deposit. At the end of July, we announced the results of a feasibility study for a much smaller-scale project, looking at 15,000 tons per day. This comes with some very distinct advantages for us, one being a 59% reduction in initial capital.
We've taken steps with cutoff grade to prioritize grade over tons, and that has resulted in an increase in the average grade of the deposit. We've adopted contract mining. We have achieved a very constant and consistent annual gold production over the profile of the project. We've designed the project using a fit-for-purpose design basis, and we've adopted some Australian principles with regards to sourcing the workforce, and we'll have a more significant fly-in, fly-out workforce. These are the changes, and let me just jump to what this translates to as far as results. I mentioned raising the cutoff grade. That's allowed us to achieve an average reserve grade over the first 15 years of the project. Bear in mind, at a smaller scale, that the life of the project has increased from 16 years to 30 years' life of the mine now.
The first 15 years, we now have an average grade of the reserves and material that we mined of 1.04 g/t . That's up from 0.77 g/t. Average production over that same period of time will be 153,000 oz of gold per year, and the initial capital investment is now estimated to be $425 million. The study reports a total resource of 10.6 million oz, with a reserve of 5.2 million oz of proven and probable reserves. We used a $2,500 gold price in our analysis for project economics, and at that gold price, the net present value at a 5% discount rate is estimated to be $1.1 billion US, with a 27.8% internal rate of return.
Now, if we use something closer to the spot price, and we've done the numbers at a $3,300 gold price, that NPV increases to $2.2 billion, and the IRR increases to just shy of 45%. The all-in sustaining costs are estimated to be just shy of $1,450. We're really excited about these numbers and what this means for the project, and it really, as I mentioned, represents a shift in the way we think about the project. Some of the things that we've done, just kind of going back and putting a little bit more meat around that initial introduction, the project is designed as an Australian project.
That may sound funny for people to hear, but previously, we'd designed this project as a very large project using design criteria that would be very consistent with what the likes of a Newmont, a Barrick, a Newcrest, a Goldcorp., those kinds of companies might use, and that's the audience that we were trying to appeal to. We've now redesigned the project using almost entirely Australian-based or Australian-experienced consultants and engineers, and our lead engineer, GR ES , has significant experience in designing, building, and delivering gold projects of this scale in Western Australia. We think that by changing to 15,000 tons per day, that we have right-sized the project. This is a very common size for mines in the western part of Australia to start out as, and it's something that the equipment is readily available. People are familiar with the style of operation.
By changing the scope, you know, doing things the way Australian mining companies do them, I think that we've made this project more attractive. For example, the use of contract mining is one. Using a sourcing workforce that we estimate that in the early years, 90% of our workforce will be fly-in, fly-out. We'll have a permanent camp on site. We obviously are very pleased with the reduction in CapEx. The cost that it takes to build the project is a very important factor, and having achieved a 59% reduction in initial CapEx, and at the same time achieving a 23% increase in grade, are very significant accomplishments. We maintain and have been able to sustain the leverage to the gold price that we've enjoyed with past studies, and you saw that in the differences between the NPV and IRR going from $2,500 to $3,300.
In designing a project that is an initially smaller-scale project, we have retained the opportunity for expansion, and I think this is a very important point. While we've designed the project at 15,000 tons per day, we have left the space in the layouts and in the general arrangement drawings to be able to expand the project, and we believe that that will happen at some point and that it'll be driven by market conditions. Today, I don't know if that will be a 50% expansion, whether it'll be a doubling to 30,000 tons a day, but we've allowed the space for that to happen. We certainly believe that this demonstrates the optionality that we have, and by combining all of this, we believe that we've lowered the risk profile of the Mt Todd project. Now, the results of the study, the slide deck has a lot of information.
I'm not going to read this table to everyone, but I think that maybe some of the highlights are that over the first 15 years of the life of the project, the average production will be 153,000 oz of gold per year. We'll produce just shy of 2.3 million oz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of, let's just call it $1,450 an ounce. Life of mine, that number goes up a little bit. That goes up to $1,500 an ounce. Those are still very, very solid and very competitive all-in sustaining cost numbers. Because of the decision to raise the cutoff grade, the stripping ratio has gone up.
It's now just a little bit over four to one, and part of that's because we're going to be stockpiling approximately 70 million tons of low-grade material between 0.35 g/t and 0.5 g/t in the corner of the waste rock dump, where it could be recovered at some future time should economics favor the recovery of that material. The payback for the project, and these numbers are at $2,500 an ounce, the payback is 2.7 years. If we look at $3,300, the payback period is 1.7 years. There are some very exciting numbers in the results. Kind of stepping back, I'm kind of excited, jumped into the results of the study. For those who may not be familiar with where the project is located, on this slide, you see a map that shows that it's located in the very northern part of Northern Australia, of the Northern Territory.
Locally referred to as the top end of Australia. The project is located about 30 minutes north of Katherine and about 250 km southeast of Darwin, and Darwin being the capital of the Northern Territory and port city. We have very, very good access. The project is just 10 km off the Stuart Highway, which is the main thoroughfare through the territory. We have paved roads to the site. I think that one of the things that we're most excited about is just the outstanding team of people that we were able to put together to complete this study. I talked about GR Engineering Services. They're our study author and our process engineers, and they're the group that specifically has experience in building plants of similar size to Mt Todd in Western Australia and delivering them on time and on budget.
We've been able to leverage off of their extensive experience, their cost database, and I feel very comfortable that the costs that are estimated and our capital costs are achievable and very realistic today. Mining Plus, another Australian company, has done all of our mine planning. They prepared the mineral reserve estimate. [TEF Tech] out of Colorado has continued to do our resource estimation and water management work, and they've been working on the project since 2006. We're happy to have them part of the team. TR Group International has international experience designing tailing storage facilities, and they've been a tremendous add to the project. There are third-party contractors, and we're under confidentiality. I can't disclose names, but if I were, you would recognize both the contractor that we've worked with on designing the power plant, which would be owned and operated by a contractor, as well as the contract miner.
These are names. These are people who this is what their business is, and they do this day in, day out in Australia. One of the key elements of any project is permitting and authorizations and licenses, and people will recall that we have all of the authorizations to start a 50,000-ton-per-day operation. There will be some modifications to those authorizations that are required as part of a 15,000-ton-per-day operation. We've already commenced discussions with the government and permitting agencies, and I estimate that while the process won't be difficult or arduous, realistically we're expecting to have all of those authorizations tidied up and changed over to a smaller operation. We're probably looking at something in the range of 12- 18 months from today. The mining engineers have done an exceptional job with mine planning and scheduling.
We've been able to smooth out the production profile from what we had previously. Those who know Mt Todd will recall that in the previous studies that starting in year six and continuing through year nine, we had a significant drop in production. We've been able at the smaller throughput rate, we've been able to smooth that out. We continue to have a strategy of trying to really attack the high-grade material that we can get to in the early years of the life. You see that in this chart that we're able to produce close to 180,000 oz of gold per year over the first three years of the operation, and then things settle in right about 150,000 oz and remain there until Year 19. We are very, very happy about that production profile.
I talked a little bit about the all-in sustaining cost, and you see here two gold bars. This is comparing ourselves to our Australian peers, the operating mines in Australia and where we stack up. You see that the previous feasibility study at a very large scale was projected to be in 2024 one of the lower all-in sustaining cost operations. When we go to a smaller scale, obviously we lose some economies of scale, bringing in contract mining. That adds costs. You see there in the middle of the pack, in the middle of the slide, that we're very solidly positioned with regards to our all-in sustaining costs, that the costs that have been estimated by GR ES and Mining Plus place us just about in the middle of the pack with regards to our all-in sustaining costs.
This is very significant because a lot of people look at Mt Todd and they say, you know, you have a hard ore body, and that's true, but it speaks to the efficiency of the process plant and the work that's been done to achieve the most optimum and most efficient operation that we can, given the size of the operation. I'm very happy with our all-in sustaining costs of roughly $1,450 an ounce for the first 15 years of the project. Now, this next slide just kind of gives you an idea of the after-tax cash flows. You see, and what you see there is the differences between what it would be at the study level, which is the solid blue line, cumulatively speaking, and the gold bars, and what it would look like at a $3,300 gold price.
What you see on this slide is, again, a manifestation of the leverage that we enjoy. At a $2,500 gold price, the life of mine free cash flow is almost $2.5 billion, and when we look at it at a $3,300 gold price, that number pushes up to almost $4.5 billion. The project is very robust. It generates cash flow. It pays back the debt very quickly, the initial investment. I think that that, you know, again, speaks very highly to the quality of the estimates and the deposit itself. You note that we do have a little bit of a dip here in Year 20. That's two things that are happening. One, that's the year that we have to build the second tailing storage facility, and also we have a little bit of additional stripping in that year.
If we look at it on an investment in Year 19 to achieve very significant cash flow in Year 26 and Year 27, it pencils out that it has like an 81% internal rate of return on that investment in Year 19. We're not disturbed by that at all. If we look at the sensitivity to gold price, and this is, you know, we've kind of already talked about these numbers with regards to what are the changes from $2,500 to $3,300, but you're putting it in a little different perspective. You get an idea of the leverage, again, that we enjoy to the gold price. We've showed at a lower end, $2,100 gold price. I don't think the gold price is going anywhere close to that, and I think that there's plenty of upside.
Because the relationship is almost linear, you can project the numbers upwards from the $3,300 gold price. What's the investment opportunity? What do we hope to accomplish with this? You see on this chart a comparison of the Mt Todd project and Vista Gold on a market cap and size of reserve and annual production rate basis. What you see here is that the Mt Todd project, as it's designed, and obviously we're comparing ourselves to peers that have production of less than 200,000 oz of gold per year. What you see is that with the transition to becoming a producer and at 15,000 tons per day, that's a much easier step than it was previously, that there's a tremendous opportunity for a re-rating in the value of the company.
Just looking at modest valuations, comparing ourselves to Bellevue or Catalyst, there's the opportunity to see an increase of 7x or 8x . If we're successful and garner the attention of the likes of Capricorn, we could see something that's more in the range of 15x or 20 x. There's a tremendous opportunity here. How do we advance this? This, I think, is the crux of what we've laid the groundwork for, in that I believe that our feasibility study has laid the basis for a responsible path forward in advancing what truly is one of Australia's largest gold projects. I pointed out earlier that it's designed as an Australian project. We've used Australian engineers. We've adopted Australian development philosophies. 15,000 tons per day is, I think, the right size, and it's rewarded us with a significant reduction in the initial capital.
It's also the right scope, using contractors and other strategies for developing and operating. It's a very attractive option. We struggled a little bit in the past with the perception that the project is low grade, and certainly one gram per ton seems to be a magic number, and I'm pleased that we have a reserve that's over and above that. I kind of smile when I say that because there's a number of very large gold projects that are producing a lot of gold. Boddington, the Detour Lake project, both have grades that are less than a gram per ton. We've achieved a target or a reserve that allows us to operate steadily at a reserve grade that's greater than a gram and with very steady production over the first half of the project.
We've already talked about the leverage to gold price and the economics, and I'm not going to beat on those, the opportunity for expansion. I think the point here is that this study opens the doors to various development alternatives. Obviously, one is our path of finding a joint venture partner. There are a number of Australian gold producers who have taken notice of the Mt Todd in the last 30 days and are interested and have signed confidentiality agreements. Another is that we recognize that a project of this scale and the size and the economics, there are companies that may not want to be a development partner but find the project very appealing and attractive and a good fit for their portfolio.
If that means engaging in a transaction at the project level or at a corporate level, those are options that will be taken seriously and evaluated as well. Last, there's the option that at this CapEx, financing and building the team to build Mt Todd ourselves is much more of a viable option today than it was previously. We're presently evaluating the best pathway forward. We're concentrated. I spent a week in Australia, part of that at Diggers and Dealers. We are focused on increasing the broad market understanding of the Mt Todd gold project at this scale. As I indicated, we're signing confidentiality agreements, and that will lead to site visits. We believe that ultimately this is going to result in some options on how we advance the project and how we realize value for our shareholders. That's the path forward.
That's what we're working on right now. There are a number of conferences coming up in the next month that we'll be at here in Colorado. We're excited about the story that we have. We're excited about the status of the project. I believe that we're on a path to realistically end up within the next year on a pathway that will lead to significant value creation for our shareholders. With that, I'm going to open the floor for questions and be happy to respond to any questions that participants may have.
Thank you, Fred. Yes, quite a few questions for you. [Esther] asks, does Vista Gold own the water rights?
The water rights have already been granted to us. We don't have wells for the project. Rather, we have a freshwater storage reservoir, and we capture water during the wet season and store it, and we have the authorizations that we need to use all of the water needed for the project.
Can you speak to your company's current burn rate and how much runway you have with existing capital?
Yeah, we finished the second quarter with $13.2 million cash in the bank. Our burn rate, and obviously third quarter will be a little bit higher than this because we're finishing the feasibility study and there will be some expenses there, is somewhere between $1.5 million and $1.7 million a quarter. We've got almost two years' worth of cash at present consumption rates.
Is Wheaton looking to increase their investment in Mt Todd? Do they have the option to do that?
Wheaton's real business is streaming, not royalties. The reason that they engaged in a royalty agreement with Vista was to get their foot in the door and have the first right of refusal on any financing that might come as a result of streaming. We believe that Wheaton will be an integral part of financing for the Mt Todd project. Ultimately, that decision is theirs and ours to make jointly, but I believe that they will be an integral part of that package.
Great. If you can explain this again briefly, timing on any expansion, what has to happen first, production, and just a little timeline for production?
Our engineers estimate that the timeline from the start of engineering through commissioning is 27 months. This is coming from GR ES , like I said, a company who has significant experience in designing, building, and delivering operating projects. With regards to expansion, that's a question that will really, or a decision that will be made after the project is in operation, and it will depend on market conditions. It could be that those discussions happen very early. It could be that it's a number of years down the path before a decision is made about expansion.
Whether that expansion would be, you know, a 50% expansion going from 15,000 to 22,500 tons a day, whether it goes to 30,000 tons a day, or whether once it's demonstrated that Mt Todd can successfully process the ore and the deposit, somebody makes the decision to expand it to 50,000 tons a day. This is the optionality that's on the table, and all options are open at this point.
Are you currently in active discussions regarding a sale, joint venture, or strategic transaction? What valuation metrics would you consider acceptable for shareholders given this new gold environment?
This is an area that everybody wants an answer that I can't really give. We signed a number of confidentiality agreements. I have another several that are in the process of being negotiated. These things take time for people to complete their due diligence. As far as metrics that are available, the average investor, obviously the feasibility study results will be a key metric in realizing that unfortunately we don't get to sell the project for its full net present value, but they can begin to look at that and look at other transactions that are happening in the marketplace. I will note that the full 43-101 and S-K 1300 feasibility study reports will be out prior to the 12th of September, and people will be able to read that and digest that information and draw their own conclusions.
Perfect. Do you have any closing remarks for our viewers today, Fred?
We're really excited about the results of this feasibility study. It's something that we started looking at 18 months ago and trying to get our hands around what would a smaller project look like. Very pleased with the work that's gone into this, the consultants, the extensive experience, the reputations that they've brought to the project. The economics are thrilling. The lower initial capital investment is exactly what we needed for the project. It's a fun story to talk about. I really encourage people to take a closer look. If you believe that the gold price is going to remain strong or increase, I think that Vista Gold should be in your portfolio. I think that this will be a very significant investment opportunity and a moneymaker for you, and we're delighted to be able to have the opportunity to tell the story at this early stage.
Thanks for having me on the show today.
Thank you, Fred. Thank you so much, and we appreciate your time. Hope to see you again real soon.
I look forward to it.
All right, everyone. We'll be right back with our next presenter.