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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 28, 2022

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the first quarter 2022 Valley National Bancorp earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Travis Lan, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Travis Lan
Head of Investor Relations, Valley National Bancorp

Good morning, and welcome to Valley's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Presenting on behalf of Valley today are CEO Ira Robbins, President Tom Iadanza, and Chief Financial Officer Mike Hagedorn. Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware that our quarterly earnings release and supporting documents can be found on our company website at valley.com.

When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

Additionally, I would like to highlight slide two of our earnings presentation and remind you that comments made during this call may contain forward-looking statements relating to Valley National Bancorp and the banking industry. Valley encourages all participants to refer to our SEC filings, including those found on Form 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Thank you, Travis, and welcome to those of you on the call. I have a few comments to make this morning, and then we'll ask Tom to provide some insight on our loan growth and strategic progress. Mike will then discuss the quarter's financial results in more detail. In the first quarter of 2022, Valley reported net income of $117 million, earnings per share of $0.27, and return on average assets of 1.07%.

Exclusive of non-core charges, EPS and ROA would have been $0.28 and 1.10%, respectively. The benefits of our diverse and agile business model and strong balance sheet were evident during the quarter. Strong organic net interest income growth and robust swap revenues more than offset both a $10 million reduction in PPP income and mortgage banking headwinds.

Tangible book value was also preserved, as the March thirty-first valuation of our relatively modest available-for-sale portfolio had limited impact on our equity. Over the last few years, we have made significant investments in both people and technology to capitalize on the enormous and diverse growth opportunities we have identified.

The organic growth results that we continue to generate justify these investment efforts. Exclusive of PPP, gross loans increased $1.4 billion during the quarter or over 17% on an annualized basis. These impressive results are a continuation of the success we have seen over the last year.

In the past 12 months, we have generated nearly $4 billion of organic loan growth, representing a 13% increase from March thirty-first, 2021. Tom will provide additional details on our loan growth and strategic efforts in a moment.

As it relates to Bank Leumi, we were very pleased to close the transaction as expected on April first. Onboarding and integration efforts are proceeding in line with our expectations, and we are already observing exciting collaboration between the teams. Leumi generates strong commercial loan growth in the first quarter, and non-interest income is running ahead of schedule.

Importantly, their differentiated technology banking business also has seen a solid increase in deposits since announcement. The compelling strategic rationale for the transaction is more evident than ever, and we are extremely excited for our collective future.

During my tenure as CEO, Valley has proven the ability to grow both organically and through acquisition. Our current focus is on successfully integrating Bank Leumi and driving continued organic growth within our combined organizations.

While we strongly believe M&A provides opportunities to accelerate our strategic initiatives, we do not anticipate being active in the traditional bank M&A market in the near future. Now I want to ask Tom to discuss our loan results and what we view as key strategic drivers for our revenue growth.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Thank you, Ira. As Ira mentioned, during the quarter, we generated $1.4 billion of non-PPP loan growth. As expected, growth was primarily concentrated in our commercial segments and was diversified across geographies. Specifically, CRE growth was split approximately 75-25 between our northern and southern regions. C&I growth was more balanced at approximately 60-40.

On the construction side, we saw an increase in advances on previously approved projects. While a sequential growth in construction loans is strong on an annualized basis, the dollar increase was relatively modest, and this segment continues to comprise only 6% of our total loan portfolio. We remain optimistic on our prospects for organic loan growth throughout the year. As of March 31, the loan pipeline was historically high at over $3.5 billion.

While the first quarter results benefited from some pull forward, we anticipate generating 2022 loan growth in the low double digits. Over the last few quarters, we have discussed our new market expansion efforts and lending hires. We are pleased to report that as of March 31, these initiatives have contributed $750 million and $600 million of loans, respectively.

While total deposits were flat during the quarter, we continue to have a diverse set of funding channels available to us. Specifically, we benefited from meaningful commercial checking account growth over the last few years.

We also continue to grow our niche efforts targeting homeowners associations, cannabis companies, and professional services firms. This enabled us to allow retail CDs to run off further during the quarter. Rounding out the revenue discussion, we saw non-interest income improve modestly.

Swap revenue was robust and helped to offset a challenging mortgage banking environment during the quarter. We are working hard to develop and grow sustainable sources of non-interest income. During the quarter, our diverse revenue streams helped absorb the headwinds of a volatile market.

All in, non-PPP revenue increased 17% from the first quarter of 2021. We are heading into the second quarter from a position of strength and expect a combination of loan growth and rising interest rates to contribute to strong revenue growth through the remainder of the year.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Thanks, Tom. As you can tell, we are laser-focused on driving organic loan and revenue growth, which we believe will result in additional positive operating leverage over time. Admittedly, over the last two quarters, we have seen expense growth outpace revenues. This is due to a combination of proactive investments on our part and broader external expense pressure seen across the entire industry.

We continuously work to limit and offset, when possible, growth in expenses and are confident that revenues will accelerate as a result of our commercial lending engine and the expectation of rising interest rates. We continue to focus on positive operating leverage and believe this progress will emerge throughout the year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike to update our guidance and discuss some of the quarter's financial highlights.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Thank you, Ira. I will start this morning on slide five with an update on certain guidance items that we provided in January. Due to the exceptional growth generated in the first quarter and an improved outlook for the rest of the year, we are increasing our 2022 organic loan growth projections to a range of 10%-12%.

As a result of this higher growth and using the forward curve as of March 31, we now anticipate 2022's net interest income growth of between 8% and 12%. As a reminder, we project this growth compared to reported 2021 net interest income, which included approximately $85 million of PPP loan interest and fee income. Slide six illustrates Valley's recent net interest income and margin trends.

Net interest income increased over $2 million from the linked quarter, despite a $10 million reduction in PPP income. This reflected the benefits of liquidity deployment into loans, as well as a full quarter's impact from The Westchester Bank acquisition. Our reported net interest margin declined seven basis points to 3.16%.

Exclusive of PPP, however, the margin increased one basis point to 3.11% from 3.10% in the fourth quarter. We estimate that the first quarter's lower day count weighed on both reported and PPP-adjusted margin by approximately five basis points. Additionally, we saw the margin expand throughout the quarter as cash was put to work. We anticipate further benefits from rising interest rates as origination yields expand and our floating loans reprice higher.

While lagging deposit costs may not be easy in the future, our focus on less sensitive commercial operating accounts and the diversity of our funding sources should provide a relative benefit as rates rise. Slide seven details our loan balances and the key drivers of our strong growth during the quarter. As Tom mentioned earlier, our non-PPP loans increased over $1.4 billion or 4.3% from December 31, 2021.

Our growth results continue to benefit from geographic and asset class diversification. We were also pleased that loan origination yields increased nine basis points during the quarter. Turning to our deposit composition on slide eight, you will see that total deposits were flat as compared to the fourth quarter. That said, non-interest-bearing and other transaction account balances continued to increase, replacing a further reduction in our CD balances.

You will see that non-interest and transaction accounts comprise 33% and 57% of total deposits, up from 31% and 52% in the first quarter of 2021, respectively. During the quarter, our CD and non-maturity deposit costs declined four basis points and one basis point, respectively. Over the last few years, our deposit transition has benefited in part from a focus on commercial operating account originations.

The niche focus areas that Tom mentioned earlier also contributed to the growth in transaction balances during the quarter. Moving to slide nine, we generated non-interest income of $39 million for the quarter as compared to $38 million in the fourth quarter and $31 million in the first quarter of 2021. The linked quarter increase reflected higher swap income and advisory fees, which offset a meaningful compression in mortgage banking income.

As the expectation for higher interest rates accelerated, we saw more customers opting for floating loans with an associated swap. Mortgage banking results were pressured by both lower sales activity and a negative valuation mark on our loans held for sale at the end of the quarter. On slide 10, you can see that our adjusted expenses were over $189 million for the quarter.

As depicted in the waterfall chart, this includes approximately $7 million of expenses related to elevated seasonal factors. A portion of the non-seasonal expense increase is for investments we have made to position ourselves for the significant growth that we continue to achieve. That said, we acknowledge that pressures on other business as usual expenses continue to build. We are working to maximize efficiencies to ensure that more of our anticipated revenue growth will drop to the bottom line.

As a result of our ongoing review of delivery channels, we are targeting approximately 13 branch locations for closure by the end of the year. Turning to slide 11, you can see our credit trends for the last five quarters. Our allowance for credit losses declined to 1.08% of non-PPP loans at March 31 from 1.11% at December 31. For the second consecutive quarter, we recognized modest net recoveries.

Still, we recorded a $3.5 million provision, largely to account for the significant growth that we experienced. Non-accrual balances continued to decline in the first quarter, driven primarily by our CRE and C&I portfolios. While early-stage delinquencies ticked up in the quarter, much of the increase is associated with what we consider non-credit issues. We remain confident in the quality of our underwriting and our future credit performance.

On slide 12, you can see that tangible book value was flat for the quarter and approximately 7.5% higher than a year ago. The lack of quarterly tangible book value growth is primarily the result of the modest negative OCI impact associated with our available for sale securities portfolio. Relative to peers, this headwind was minimized as a result of our relatively small securities portfolio and modest AFS exposure, which reflects our continued focus on tangible book value preservation.

As our loan and securities growth was primarily funded with excess cash during the quarter, tangible common equity to tangible asset ratio was effectively flat. However, our risk-based regulatory ratios declined as we replaced cash with loans carrying a higher risk weight. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A. Thank you.

Operator

Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star then one on your touch tone telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Our first question comes from the line of Frank Schiraldi from Piper Sandler. Your question please.

Frank Schiraldi
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Morning.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Good morning, Frank.

Frank Schiraldi
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Just on the updated guidance, it seems like the NII growth, the change there, is just really a function of the increased loan growth. Just wondering, you know, I would assume the revised guidance has more rate hikes baked in and just wondering, given your ALCO positioning, if that's sort of de minimis or how you have that baked into guide.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Frank, it's Mike. I'll go ahead and take a stab at this one. We do have seven Fed rate hikes included in our modeling. Then also I would point out that the lower end of our NII guide reflects a potential beta stress test that, while we don't anticipate will actually happen, we wanna be prepared for. We have stress tested that range for various beta outcomes, which I think will be the bigger driver down the road.

Frank Schiraldi
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Seems like given where liquidity is in the banking system, you don't really expect to get to the betas that would be implied by the low end of guide. Is that right?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

On the low end, that's correct, yes.

Frank Schiraldi
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Just continuing on that vein, just to follow up on the loan growth guide, what do more normalized utilization rates look like versus where they are now? Just wondering if you have any of that pickup baked into your expectations.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. Hey, Frank, it's Tom. I mean, we're seeing a slight uptick on the utilization rate from 39 to 40, so nothing material. You know, with our focused relationship-driven C&I and commercial growth, we are seeing an increase in our committed lines. We're gonna get a natural real dollar increase, but we haven't baked in anything above that 40% utilization rate.

Frank Schiraldi
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Piper Sandler

Gotcha. Okay, great. Thank you.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Thanks, Frank.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Perito from KBW. Your question please.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Morning.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

I wanted to start, piggybacking on one of Frank's questions. You guys obviously updated some of the revenue guide on the top line. You know, I noticed the efficiency guide is unchanged. I guess just kind of a simple question.

I guess, do you guys have kind of increasing confidence, given the updated NII outlook that that's more gonna be towards the below 50 versus at 50 part of that range? Or are there other kind of accelerated expense growth items or investments we should be mindful of that you know, might have payoff longer term, but near term will offset some of that pickup in the top line?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

I'll take a stab at this one. You know, the guide that we would give is that we're fairly confident with the core run rate being around $183 million. As a reminder, I wanna make sure everybody knows the first quarter of this year included the Westchester Bank, you know, which we estimate contributed around $2 million of non-seasonal sequential increase.

That somewhat overstates the growth rate. To the degree that there's any expense growth in the second quarter, you know, we would expect it to be much more modest. Obviously, to achieve positive operating leverage, we understand the need to lag that expense growth as our revenue growth accelerates. That's really the strategic imperative.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Mike, this is Travis. Just to follow up on that, and it goes back to Mike's prior response. You know, the unchanged guidance is more tied to the low end of the NII range. So if you have that beta stress, that's what that would be. Otherwise, you would anticipate some improvement to the efficiency ratio.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Great. That's helpful. Secondly, just on, you know, some of the newer platforms that you guys are well, I guess already have gained access to on April first, like the venture banking side, some of the commercial lending in non kind of traditional Valley markets.

Maybe that's not the best way to put it, but you know, Miami, Chicago. Curious how those, you know, have performed over the first quarter and if there's any kind of notable updates there that are worth mentioning in terms of the growth profiles of those, you know, newer platforms that you guys are bringing on.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah, Mike, I'll kind of explain it and you know, in a different way. Our newer platforms at Legacy Valley was our entrance into Philadelphia, Nashville, and Atlanta. We have seen very strong growth. Keep in mind, a lot of it is following our existing customers who go into those markets as our starting point. We build, you know, we put feet on the street, and we start building more locally from there.

We've seen that success first in Philly and now in the others. When you mention Chicago and Miami and I think you mentioned Los Angeles, I'm not sure, that's really related to Leumi and the new businesses that we obtained through the Leumi merger. You know, the first quarter, all of those were active.

They had very strong pipelines and origination results. Annualized growth for the Leumi portfolio in total on the loan side was around a little over 13%. I think that answers your question. You know, that's two different market questions, the Legacy Valley and the new Leumi.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Yeah, that's great color. Just the only other item I mentioned was just on the venture banking side.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Mike, this is Ira. I think, you know, as Tom alluded to, you know, they're really not in any of our numbers yet, but we're really excited about the opportunity that they're gonna bring to us. The tech business, as you know, is really focused more on the deposits.

From the time of announcement to where we are today, you know, we've seen significant increases, north of 30% in those deposits. So we continue to be really excited about what that business is gonna bring to us from a core funding perspective.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Awesome. Helpful. Then just lastly for me, and I'll step back, just on the buyback. You know, I know you guys have historically had an authorization outstanding. You know, this one seems to be a little bigger. We have a shorter time period around it.

You know, Ira, appreciate your comments on bank M&A near term here. Is it fair for us to think that with some of this pullback here and some of the, you know, clearly positive outlook you guys have for your business that could be utilized to some degree, or with some regularity, or is it not necessarily? Is that reading too much into it?

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

I think you're probably reading a bit too much into it. Like, I think from a normal governance process perspective, it absolutely makes sense for us to have a buyback, and we haven't had a new one since 2007. So to be able to put something with some significant optionality in it, I think makes a lot of sense for us.

You know, that said, I think the priority continues to be to support the strong organic loan growth when we think about the capital utilization. 17% is a tremendous organic growth number. While that may not continue, we do anticipate strong organic growth to continue for Valley. Obviously, the best use of capital continues to be for that utilization.

Michael Perito
Managing Director and Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Very good. Helpful. Thanks on all accounts. Appreciate it.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Thanks, Mike.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos from JP Morgan. Your question please.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Steven, good morning.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Not to beat a dead horse on the NII outlook, but if I look at the loan-to-deposit ratio, it's near 100. I would assume you're gonna need to fully fund loan growth with deposits. One, is that correct? Secondly, what is the range of deposit beta you're assuming at the low and high end of the NII guide?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

The average for our modeling is 30%. The range on the highest end I think maybe gets up to about 45, maybe 55.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah, around 55-60.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

I mean, those are pretty extreme examples. You're not wrong. Obviously, deposit growth for the kind of loan engine that we have is really important. Maybe I would remind, you know, everybody on the call today, you know, that's kind of why we have the various delivery channels that we have.

When you look at our organic growth, both in personal and business accounts, we've grown both every quarter over the last two years. Maybe it's times like this that it's great to have the retail footprint that we have that makes up roughly a third of our total funding sources because in the consumer space, they tend to be a little less rate sensitive.

Even if they are as rate sensitive as the commercial side, it's another avenue and another product offering that we can offer to meet the needs of this growing balance sheet on the lending side.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Steven, I'll just maybe add to that a little bit. I think over the last few years, there's been an intense strategic focus in this organization to diversify the funding source. While organic loan growth has been a significant priority as well, for many in the industry, assets have been really the focus. You know, for us, the strategic focus has really been on the liability side in conjunction with the assets.

We entered into the cannabis market. We worked more on the HOA market. Tom talked about some of the areas from the financial perspective of businesses that we've gone after. The shift in balance sheet from CRE to C&I that brings a lot of deposits as well has really transformed what the balance sheet looks like.

I think you can sort of take a look at what happened from the NIM this quarter. Traditionally going from fourth quarter to first quarter is a challenge for us, especially in a rising interest rate environment. When you look at Valley, you would historically say we're a CRE-organized Northeast bank that would've had a liability sensitive structure. You know, we're actually asset sensitive, and you saw that in the NIM this specific quarter.

That's obviously gonna bode well for us as rates continue to rise, but really reflects the changing funding structure of this organization. We think there's a lot of optionality for us out there today that wasn't necessarily prevalent a few years ago as to how we fund this balance sheet without having some of the negative impact to NIM that maybe you would've historically seen.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Steven, the only thing I'll add to that, on our business deposits, the new account openings, you know, traditionally, over 60% of those deposits come in as non-interest bearing deposits, and they're very sticky deposits. That's been our focus of growth on the depository side.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Maybe one more tidbit that'll help. You know, looking forward, keep in mind Bank Leumi's loan to deposit ratio was 75%, and their cost of funds was cheaper than ours. That provides a ready source on April first of funding to help fund our loan growth.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay, that's helpful. I just wanna understand. It sounds like 55%-60% is the beta assumed at the 8% growth range. To get to the upper end of the NII guide, what's the beta that you would need to achieve to get to that?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Around-

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

About.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Around 30. You have it right, and the answer is around 30.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. Thank you on that. Ira, I wanted to ask, so if we look at the $750 million of loans from the expansion to Philly, Atlanta, Nashville, it's always great, right, to see banks doing what you're doing. You know, I always go back to having covered Valley for a long time.

Your predecessor, Jerry, would always say, "The only way to grow in new markets was to offer a better deal than the banks that were already there." Are you just offering a better deal? Maybe you could give some color on why you're seeing such strong growth out of these new markets so quickly.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. I think it's a differentiated approach. We didn't go into these markets largely with setting up an LPO and saying, "We're gonna be out there offering the best rate in individual markets." As Tom alluded to, and maybe he can provide a little bit more color, it was really relationship driven as following some of our new customers into there, and having them really provide sort of what that introduction to some of the other borrowers in those footprints look like.

The yields on those for us are right in line with the overall portfolio. I think a very different perspective as to how we're looking at growth in those markets versus maybe what some others are doing. Tom probably some more color would probably be helpful there.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. You know, Ira's right. You know, we enter those markets following our good customers who, you know, into those. We've maintained the same margins and yields in those markets. More importantly, you know, we maintain our underwriting standards in those markets. Stress testing interest rates and cap rates on all the loans. We're not compromising to go in, either on credit standards or on return.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

They become deposits. You know, we've been successful in raising deposits in those markets also.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Yeah. Yeah. Okay, thanks. Last question from me. The comment, Ira, that you don't expect to be active in M&A for traditional banks, at least over the near term, is that just reflective of there's not many great opportunities out there today, or the environment's tough to close deals, or is this a longer term strategic shift that you're really announcing to the market today?

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

I mean, I think one of the things I've tried to do as CEO of the organization and the board's really been supportive of is looking at M&A from a strategic lever perspective. You know, we have a pretty defined approach as to how we think about growth is gonna look like in this organization and from an environment perspective.

I mean, there's an opportunity to layer strategic M&A that really accelerates that growth is something that we prioritized over the last few transactions that we've done. Where historically M&A might have been how do we think about cutting costs within an acquisition, and then really what does the overall organization look like? A very different approach. For me, organic growth drives valuation. Organic growth drives our right from an independence perspective.

We need to create strategic opportunities and partly through M&A to help us create organic growth. I would say today there's less options out there that really provide that. The last couple deals that we've done have really provided us amazing organic opportunities today, and you're seeing that with 17% loan growth.

If you go back and look at what the organic loan growth in this organization has been since I took over as CEO, our cadence around 9%. We've been able to do that while doing M&A. We created a juggernaut when it comes to organic loan growth in this organization, and we're really excited about what those opportunities look like for us, Steve.

Steven Alexopoulos
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay. Maybe think about it that there's a higher bar today for you to do a traditional bank deal than maybe what we would've thought about one or two years ago?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Is that right?

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

I think the bar is higher, but I think the type is higher, which to me is more important, right? Doing a deal where you're just looking at cost saves across an organization, to me, distracts sort of what the opportunities are for us. Where there's an opportunity from a strategic perspective to lever growth is something we would potentially look at. That said, I think we have amazing opportunities today, and it's not really a huge priority for us right now.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

Got it. Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you have a question at this time, please press star then one. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese from Stephens. Your question please.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

All right. Good morning, everybody. Hey, I want to go to the NII guide, maybe tackle this a different way. You know, throughout the course of this year, I think it's expected that we're gonna, you know, see a sweet sequence of Fed fund hikes, potentially 50-50, 50 or 50-50 25. If I were to look at 4Q 2021 NII versus 4Q 2022 NII, you know, how do you think that compares? Would it be towards the upper end of the guidance or the lower end, the 8% range using kind of median assumptions on your end?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

I wanna make sure I understand the question correctly. You can see what our previous guidance was, which would be more related to fourth quarter at 5%-7%. That guidance at that time did not incorporate the kind of variability that I talked about earlier related to various betas. It's mostly because of the size of projected Fed increases, right? Not 25 basis points, but maybe 50.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Correct.

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

The fact that they continue to accelerate the number of them, which could drive a higher beta potentially. We wanted to make sure that our guide included on the lower end of the guide the potential for those higher betas to actually, you know, be reality.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Got it. Let me try it this way. You know, with Leumi, what is the kind of interest rate sensitivity profile in a +200 basis points environment for the combined organization?

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. It would be approximately 9% or 10% positive NII impact. That would be a good guess as a sensitivity position. I would just, Matt, I mean, just to try and simplify it, right? Like, the guide that we gave you in January of 5%-7% was based on the 12/31 balance sheet and the 12/31 curve.

Fast-forward three months, our starting position on loans is much higher, and we've guided to, you know, higher loan growth. The curve is more beneficial, I would say, to our NII outlook as well. The range goes up because of those two factors. The reason that the bottom end of the range, I would say, is expanded is because we think it's prudent to provide a beta shock scenario, to the degree there is additional funding pressure beyond what we anticipate.

We've told you what, you know, our historical betas have been and what goes into our internal modeling. To be, you know, conservative and appropriate and give the right range of results, that's what the low end of that guide captures.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Got it. Okay. I did wanna go back to expenses just for a moment. You know, Mike, you had mentioned that the core rate is $183 million. I just wanna make sure when you referenced there, you know, being modest growth in the second quarter, that we're basing that off of the $183 million mark. You know, could you give us some idea of that $183 million, what the all-in expenses are expected to be for the second quarter, kind of the baseline assumptions with Leumi at that point?

Mike Hagedorn
CFO, Valley National Bancorp

I don't have the with Leumi numbers at my fingertips, but I can answer the first part with clarity. Yes, 183 is the baseline core expense number for the second quarter, but exclusive of Leumi.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Leumi contributes, I mean, just on a stand-alone basis, they would contribute, you know, call it $45-$47 million of expenses a quarter.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Obviously, you know, there are some early-stage cost saves that you get that would reduce that impact.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Right. Okay, thanks for the clarification. The swap fee income, how sustainable do you think that is? Or do you think there was, you know, a number of kind of quote-unquote fence jumpers, that wanna get into it prior to rates going higher?

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah, Matt, it's Tom. I think, you know, there was some acceleration in the first quarter. I think we'll return to normalized levels, which is probably that $8 million-$10 million a quarter.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Okay. The last one for me is, you know, this quarter, we're not really seeing any signs of credit deterioration across any of the Northeast banks, but the one area I continue to get questions on is the health of office. I was curious, one, could you just remind us of what your exposure is to office? Two, are you seeing any sorts of signs of deterioration on that front, or do you have kind of concerns with it, on a go-forward basis?

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. I mean, obviously it's something that we focus on. Office, you know, our office is less than 10% of our total real estate portfolio, and very little, we have minimal in the Manhattan high-rise market. Most of our office portfolio is suburban, not urban, and it tracks more towards the growing southeast markets, where we're seeing any new business and any growth.

You know, I just want to remind you, Matt, that we've always stressed at a much higher cap rate than some of our competitors have, even in the better times. We do not have a large office exposure in general, and it's very spread out, very diverse.

You know, as a point of context, our average loan for our new business for the first quarter, average real estate loan was $5.5 million with a 62% weighted average LTV. We continue to grow in a very granular fashion. 65% of our new business production was with existing customers. We get a lot of repeat business from people that have been through these cycles. We're very conscious of what's going on in the office space and very careful in how we proceed there.

Matthew Breese
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Stephens Inc.

Got it. Okay. That's all I had. Thank you for taking my questions.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dave Bishop from Hovde Group. Your question please.

Dave Bishop
Director of Equity Research, Hovde Group

Yeah, good morning, gentlemen.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Good morning, Dave.

Dave Bishop
Director of Equity Research, Hovde Group

Maybe keeping along the credit lines, I know it's a rather modest pickup, but a little bit of a hiccup or pickup in the early-stage delinquencies, the narrative noted two loans. Just maybe any sort of granularity you can provide in terms of those inflows.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Sure, Dave, it's Tom here. It was about a $37 million pickup in that piece. $27 million of that is administrative, and they're in a process of being removed. There were two real estate loans that are paying but slow pay. One has an LTV at below 35%.

The other has an LTV in the 70% range. Both are well collateralized. Again, we stress our cap rates, and we underwrite with cap rates that were much higher than I would say our competitors have. We don't expect any losses.

Dave Bishop
Director of Equity Research, Hovde Group

Got it. Maybe one final question. In terms of new money yields on new originations this quarter, just curious how that compared to origination yields in the fourth quarter. Thanks.

Ira Robbins
CEO, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah, Dave. So total origination yields increased nine basis points during the quarter. But I would tell you as we exited in March, I mean, those origination yields had ticked up, even further. There's a chart on our loan page. The bottom left chart will show you origination yields over the last couple of quarters to put that in context.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Yeah. It's on slide seven at the bottom if you wanna know the reference.

Dave Bishop
Director of Equity Research, Hovde Group

Okay, great. I think I missed that. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Ira Robbins for any further remarks.

Tom Iadanza
President, Valley National Bancorp

Thank you. I just wanna thank everyone for taking the time to join us today. Once again, just reiterate how excited we are about the opportunities for organic growth within this organization, both in what we've been doing on our own and in conjunction with the excitement around Bank Leumi closing on April first. Thank you, and look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

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