Day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Valley National Bancorp third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andrew Jianette. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to Valley's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I am joined today by CEO Ira Robbins and CFO Travis Lan. Reconciliations of any non-GAAP measures mentioned on the call can be found in today's earnings release and presentation at valley.com. Please note slide two of our earnings presentation and remember that comments made today may include forward-looking statements about Valley National Bancorp, the banking industry, and our pending acquisitions of Providence Financial Corporation and Bluevine Inc. Actual results may differ from those statements. For more information on these forward-looking statements and associated risk factors, please refer to our SEC filings, including forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.
Thank you, Andrew. In a few minutes, Travis will review our exceptional third quarter financial results. Before that, I want to use slide 6 to add context to those results and explain why our strategy, including the pending acquisitions of Providence and Bluevine, will position Valley to create meaningful shareholder value. The foundation of our journey began in 2017, when Valley was a $24 billion northeast focused bank. Through technology modernization, consistent organic growth, and targeted strategic acquisitions, we transformed Valley into a geographically diverse $57 billion regional bank by the end of 2022. While investing over $300 million in CapEx during this period, we meaningfully improved efficiency and generated above average returns relative to similar sized peers. While we were proud of these profitability results, our CRE concentration, loan to deposit ratio, and capital and reserve levels made Valley an industry outlier.
These metrics were appropriate for our risk profile, but created an external perception that Valley could be more exposed to challenges when the industry landscape shifted rapidly in 2023. Against this backdrop, the second chapter of our journey required us to recalibrate our balance sheet to close the valuation gap created by these outlier metrics. To address these perceived concerns, we acted swiftly and decisively to strengthen capital, reduce CRE concentration, and improve funding. Our allowance coverage ratio improved during this time as well. These balance sheet de-risking efforts set the stage for the current performance driven third chapter of our journey. As of September 30th, 2026, our CRE concentration ratio has declined by more than 160 percentage points from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2023.
CET1 has grown to 10.7% of risk-weighted assets, our loan to deposit ratio has improved to 96%, and most profitability metrics have returned to 2022 levels. Since 2017, we have built a larger, stronger and more profitable bank and opportunities remain to continue this momentum. Over the next few years, we are targeting a 90% loan to deposit ratio, CRE concentration well below 300%, an efficiency ratio in the mid 40% range, and returns on tangible common equity in the high teens. We believe this quarter's strong results, supplemented by our pending acquisitions, will position us well to achieve these aspirations as we continue to focus on returning to our position as a top performing regional bank. As we progress towards these goals, funding optimization remains our top priority and will likely be the most significant driver of further profitability improvement and valuation expansion.
As detailed on slide 14, we have grown deposits from $18 billion in 2017 to $55 billion today. Despite strong loan growth and significant market disruption, we have reduced our reliance on wholesale funding over this time. The combined acquisitions of Providence and Bluevine are expected to add over $3.5 billion of low cost core deposits to Valley. This should further improve our funding profile, expand our margin, and enhance the value of our franchise. Our strategic focus on small business and business banking will likely be central to our funding strategy. More than 36 million small businesses operate in the United States and account for nearly half of private sector employment. These entities generate the granular operating deposits that we value most, those that tend to value relationships and user experiences above absolute rate.
Capturing these valuable operating deposits requires a combination which few providers can offer. Large banks often lack the personal attention that small businesses value. Community banks may lack the product breadth and technology, and Fintechs typically cannot match the balance sheet strength and stability of a regulated bank. With its pending acquisitions, Valley will bring these advantages together, delivering sophisticated deposit, treasury, lending, and wealth solutions through deep client relationships and experience advisory services. Our pending acquisitions also attack the small business opportunity from complementary angles. Providence provides an established physical network in Chicagoland, a market with over 1 million active small businesses. Bluevine is expected to add national digital reach with approximately 185,000 active small business customers and over $2 billion of low-cost core deposit relationships.
Bluevine should expand our small business client base by nearly 20 x while creating meaningful cross-sell potential for the roughly 40% of its clients that already operate within Valley's footprint. AI is another structural area lever that should drive further profitability improvement for Valley. Banks which deploy AI effectively can create capacity for growth while structurally lowering efficiency ratios. We were early to identify the AI opportunity and quickly dedicated significant resources to build the foundation that is critical to recognize the meaningful benefits we expect. Our approach is disciplined. We focus on measurable value, centralized governance, and human oversight. Building on our investments in data and core infrastructure, we are already deploying AI in several areas, including customer care, fraud and AML reviews, auto loan collections, and most recently, agentic credit underwriting and loan servicing.
Bluevine is expected to accelerate these efforts by enhancing our AI engineer and developer talent base. There are innumerable cases for AI efficiency in the banking space. Expanding our capacity to solve these use cases will continue to propel our performance in the next chapter of our journey. Over the past eight years, we have accomplished a lot. We have modernized our foundation, built a tech-forward culture, strengthened our balance sheet, and improved our funding base. We have rebuilt our profitability and are looking forward from a position of strength. Our next chapter will focus on further optimizing our funding base, capturing profitable small business and middle market growth, and using technology to drive sustained operating leverage. I am proud of our team and the foundation we have built to deliver substantial value for our shareholders, clients, and associates. With that, I will turn the call over to Travis.
Thank you, Ira. This quarter's strong results position us to finish 2026 at the high end of the guidance ranges provided at the start of the year. Compared with last quarter's guidance update, the primary change for modeling purposes is the effective tax rate, which is now expected to be approximately 20% for the full year, reflecting our opportunistic purchase of additional tax credits during the quarter. Turning to capital deployment on slide 11, our improving profitability supports strong loan growth, meaningful capital returns, and the value-enhancing acquisitions we recently announced. During the quarter, we returned approximately $96 million to shareholders through common dividends and the repurchase of 2.5 million shares. Our regulatory capital ratios remain comfortably within our target range, providing flexibility to pursue opportunistic share repurchases while funding the strong loan growth we expect over the next several quarters.
Slide 12 details the $1.1 billion increase in direct core customer deposits during the quarter, led by commercial non-maturity accounts, particularly in our technology vertical and metro New York footprint. Brokered deposits were unchanged as excess core deposit growth funded the repayment of approximately $400 million of maturing short-term debt during the quarter. Within brokered deposits, we replaced roughly $350 million of interest-bearing non-maturity balances with term brokered CDs. Non-interest deposits declined by about $100 million due to late runoff in the quarter. However, average non-interest deposits increased nearly $300 million from the second quarter, and spot balances have rebuilt in October. Total deposit costs increased five basis points to 2.33%, but remain well below 2.69% from a year ago.
We are working to limit deposit cost increases following the recent Fed hike and continue to believe that replacing wholesale funding with core deposits offers relative net interest margin upside versus peers. This position will be augmented by the acquisitions of Providence and Bluevine, targeted for early 2027. Slide 15 highlights solid loan growth during the quarter, concentrated in our strategic focus portfolios of C&I and owner-occupied CRE. Growth was again led by our healthcare vertical and broader strength across our geographic footprint. As a result of organic regulatory capital accretion and stable regulatory CRE balances, our CRE concentration ratio declined to 312% from 317% at June 30th, 2026. On a standalone basis, we expect to drive this ratio lower but acknowledge that a temporary uptick will likely result from expected capital deployment for our pending acquisitions in early 2027.
As Ira mentioned, we remain focused on bringing this ratio below 300% over the next few years. Slide 18 illustrates the consistent growth in our net interest income and net interest margin. The quarter-over-quarter expansion in both metrics was largely the result of higher average loan balances and expanding yields. Average new loan origination yields increased 8 basis points during the quarter, while the average cost of newly originated deposit relationships decreased by 9 basis points, primarily as a result of lower CD originations relative to the second quarter. Our balance sheet and business model remain well-positioned to benefit from the existing yield curve backdrop despite consistent competition on both sides of the balance sheet. We are pleased with the quarter's net interest margin progress and expect further expansion in the fourth quarter of 2026 and beyond.
As shown on slide 19, adjusted non-interest income increased nearly $2 million during the quarter, despite a $3 million sequential decline in capital markets revenue. Growth in our tax credit advisory business and an approximately $2 million benefit from fintech equity valuations were the primary offsets. Deposit service charges increased for the 12th consecutive quarter, reflecting continued expansion of treasury management services across our commercial customer base. We expect tax credit advisory revenue and fintech valuation benefits to normalize in the fourth quarter, while capital markets activity should rebound. We are proud of the substantial growth in core recurring fee income over the past several years. Although we acknowledge that strong net interest income growth in the same time has reduced the overall impact on our revenue mix. Adjusted non-interest expenses declined $5 million from the second quarter, primarily due to lower professional fees, FDIC assessment costs, and technology expenses.
Our efficiency ratio declined below 50%, one quarter ahead of schedule, and reached its lowest level since the third quarter of 2021. This multi-year improvement reflects disciplined expense management and operational efficiencies, including from technology and AI adoption. As Ira noted, we endeavor to further utilize AI deployment to help offset traditional expense growth while improving productivity and supporting revenue generation over time. We expect the efficiency ratio to continue declining towards our mid 40% target over the next few years. Criticized and classified loans declined 2% during the quarter and 12% year over year to represent 7.1% of loans, compared with 7.3% last quarter and 8.8% a year ago. We also saw a reduction in accruing past due loans, driven primarily by lower early-stage CRE delinquencies. Non-accrual loans increased to 0.96 of total loans, primarily due to the migration of a single well-secured construction loan.
Net charge-offs increased 28 basis points of average loans from 17 basis points in the second quarter of 2026, primarily due to a single C&I loan charge-off. Year to date net charge-offs of 20 basis points sit at the high end of our guidance range, which is now a reasonable expectation for the full year. Our $31 million provision resulted in a modest decline in the allowance coverage ratio to 1.13% from 1.16% at June 30th, 2026. The decline reflects, in part, the continued improvement in criticized and classified loans as a percent of total loans and sustained borrower financial performance. Despite the OCI headwind associated with our available for sale securities portfolio and share repurchase activity, tangible book value increased modestly during the quarter despite the OCI headwind associated with our available for sale securities portfolio and incremental share repurchase activity.
Regulatory capital ratios were generally unchanged as strong profitability supported the quarter's loan growth and share repurchase activity. We remain comfortable with our capital positioning in the context of our loan growth expectations and the impact of our pending acquisitions. To summarize, the third quarter displayed continued progress on the strategic priorities that we have continuously discussed. We have improved the funding base through strong core customer deposit growth and diversified our loan portfolio with continued growth in relationship-based C&I and owner-occupied CRE. We have increased our fee income and controlled our expenses, which has led to a sub 50% efficiency ratio. We have also actively and effectively managed our capital deployment. We continue to focus on improving our profitability and anticipate a strong end to 2026. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Feddie Strickland with Hovde Group. Your line is now open.
Hey, good morning. Just wanted to start off on credit if we could. Can you provide any more details just on the construction loan? I know it is not a big piece and you are not really expecting anything in terms of losses, but just curious what gives you comfort there and what the workout timeline might look like?
Absolutely. Hey, Feddie, this is Mark Saeger. That loan is actually a land loan. They have not begun construction on that. It falls within our construction bucket, though, obviously. What brings us comfort is over the last year, we have had substantive pay-downs of that facility in order to grant extensions. It is current on interest, but it has matured, and we had not reached agreement on a way forward. We have current valuation, which shows substantial value in the land, a number of interested parties interested in the land. So we are confident that we exit this loan without issue.
Got it. Appreciate that. Can we see criticized and classified continue to drop even with higher rates? Or is that going to get a little bit more challenging just as debt service coverage gets a little tighter?
We still feel that trend that we've experienced over the last five quarters, we're going to continue to see improvement in criticized classified. Beginning at the end of 2023, we started a process to forward look on any rate resets or maturities 12 months ahead. Historically, we've had great success for the limited population that would be stressed due to rate increase of either resizing those loans, having those refinanced by more aggressive lenders, or through sales of property. Over the past two years, the number of modified loans that we've had to do as an organization has been very small.
Great. Thanks, Mark. Just one last question from me. Just wanted to ask whether there's any updated thoughts on maybe when the deposits and fees start to flow over after Bluevine closes and they wind down their current relationships.
Yeah, Feddie, this is Travis. There's no change when we've guided to kind of April 1st is a good assumption for when we'll be able to onboard the deposits after an expected January 1st close. So that's kind of the timeline we're thinking. Between close and the deposit transition, we still benefit from the chargeback that Bluevine gets from their current partner bank. So it's not that the economics will be zero, but it'll be effectively break even until we get the deposits and can put them back to work. So I think the April 1st is still a good date to pencil in. We're certainly working to accelerate that as fast as we can.
All right, great. Thanks, Mark and Travis, I appreciate it.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Citi. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning.
Hey, Ben.
I know it's a little bit harder to tell with interest rates kind of moving all around all over the place, but when you think about just the growth between either now or potentially going into next year, I know you don't want to give next year's guide, but do you think there's some fits and starts in terms of sometimes pipelines? They build and then they follow through, even though rates move up. How do you think about the rounding the corner or rounding the calendar year in terms of growth, specifically CRE and/or C&I?
Yeah, Ben, this is Travis. Maybe I'll kind of give you what our expectations are, or maybe I'll start with the pipeline and then kind of talk about how we're contemplating that as it relates to our growth outlook. The pipeline right now has increased back towards the $5 billion mark that we were at as of March 31st. So obviously March 31st led to a significant loan growth quarter in the second quarter, which ate into the pipeline. We saw solid growth here in the third quarter, but the pipeline rebuilt at the same time. The pipeline remains very strong. I would say as we think about modeling growth, we're likely to contemplate a 2027 guide that's similar to where we were coming into the year for loan growth.
We had started with a 4%-6% loan growth guide, likely to be what we contemplate for next year. I do think rates will eat into new origination activity to some degree. At the same time, it'll likely slow the pay down on the back book. I think those two things may not balance out perfectly, but I think there's offsets there. So being fairly conservative with our loan growth expectations, it feeds into our net interest income guide. But still very strong activity in our business lines and across our geographies. The other thing on the pipeline is it continues to tilt heavily towards C&I and owner-occupied CRE.
Got it. When we think about expenses, again, not looking for a 2027 guide, but when you think just broadly speaking, you guys are running pretty tight expenses to average earning assets. It seems like as your assets gets bigger, that ratio continues to improve because via efficiency. But with the deals pending and then you're going to have a little bit of noise on the integration, do you think some of that gets reinvested or should we see kind of a relatively short term high water mark that actually comes down kind of going into next year juxtaposed against core hirings for lenders?
I think our approach has always been we're willing to invest in opportunities to enhance the franchise, drive future revenue growth and franchise value. Every time we put a dollar out the door, we're looking for as much offset as we can in the background. I think we've been able to execute that consistently over the last couple of years, and that's again driven our efficiency ratio below 50%. I'll say Providence also has an efficiency ratio on a standalone basis below 50%, obviously very small relative to the total, but we're already starting there with something that's consistent with the efficiency ratio we have before any potential cost saves. On Bluevine, we've talked about the synergies that we expect to occur over a couple of years.
None of this changes the fact that we will invest in our organic opportunities and then work to find offsets through process improvement, the utilization of AI and technology. I think we've proven our ability to do that.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Good morning. This is Mike on for Tony. On NII, you guys still expect the high end of the 11%-13% range, which would imply a little bit of a ramp in 4Q. Is that the right way to think about it? I guess what are some of the drivers to get there?
Yeah, that's correct. I mean, so we've talked about being fairly neutral to the front end of the curve and more exposed to the belly and longer ends. Obviously, there's been significant move higher in those points, which has I think partially supported our results this quarter, but also our outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond. So our exit margin for the month of September was 3.33%. We've guided to 5-7 basis points of expansion for the third quarter. We obviously exceeded that. We'll guide to another kind of 5 basis points, call it 5-7 basis points of expansion here in the fourth quarter. It's a result of the interest rate backdrop and our ability to continue to reprice our asset yields higher, while preserving, as best we can, the funding cost.
Great. On ROATCE, you remain on track to achieve that goal, and are likely to exceed the 15% target by the end of 2027. Any thoughts on reaching that target earlier in the year, given it came in at 14.2% this quarter?
Yeah. We're always working towards it. I think this quarter was great because it gave a little bit more credibility to the 15% guidance that we put out there. I think we can pull that towards the middle of the year, and I think we can exceed it by the end of next year. I think that's kind of implicit in the comment that we made. By the way, that's for Valley on a standalone basis and does not contemplate the impact of the potential transactions that we've talked about. Longer term, the transactions could add, call it 200 basis points to our terminal return on tangible common equity. By the end of next year, it's probably half of that, just because of the timing of how these things feed in.
But I do think there should be clear credibility to the guidance that we've laid out and our opportunities to outperform.
Great. Thanks, Travis.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of David Smith with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
Hey, good morning. How should we be thinking about the reserve ratio dynamics going forward? As on the one hand, you continue to have generally improving credit metrics, but you are also still growing C&I a lot faster than CRE. Is there kind of a leveling out in that decline in the ACL ratio, or how would you be thinking about that going forward?
I think we have said the largest driver of the ACL outlook will be the trajectory of criticized and classified loans. Obviously, over the last year, we have seen a significant reduction in criticized and classified as a percent of total, and that is what supported the reduction you have seen in the ACL. The reality is, the gross reduction in the ACL reflecting criticized and classified would be more if it were not offset by the C&I growth that you call out. Going forward, we continue to guide to something that looks fairly stable on the ACL, as we anticipate continued criticizing classified improvement, and then balancing that with our continued focus on C&I growth, which to your point, carries a higher allowance.
Okay. The full year guide seems to imply a tax rate of around 21% in the fourth quarter, which is still a little bit lower than we have been used to. Should we also be expecting a corresponding higher tax credit amortization expense than the $15 million or $16 million quarterly you were running at prior to 3Q?
Yeah. Just for the fourth quarter, I would anticipate our tax credit amortization remains in line with the third quarter, which call it $20 million. The tax rate, to your point, should be call it 20%-21%. The one thing I do just want to call out is the 15% tax rate this quarter can't be viewed in a vacuum. It's related to the $4 million quarter-over-quarter increase in tax credit amortization. So if you want to use last quarter's tax rate, you would need to similarly reduce the GAAP expense for the tax credit amortization. I think that the combination of those two factors, or the interplay there is kind of being missed. So it's not just like you would take our pre-tax income this quarter and apply a different tax rate.
Those two things, the increased tax credit amortization and the lower tax rate, they occur in conjunction with one another.
Yeah, for sure. It seems like the net benefit was obviously positive this quarter between those two. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Hey, guys. Brooks Dutton for David Chiaverini here. I just want to talk about the 90% loan to deposit ratio and if loan growth stays at 4%-6% next year, which you guys, thank you for providing that. I just want to talk about where you guys expect deposits to go on an organic basis, and if you guys could touch on the $5.3 billion of broker deposits, and where you guys expect that to trend.
Yeah. When we have the guidance page in the deck, obviously that shows where our 2026 guidance was coming into the year. I think loan and deposit growth, again, our starting point for 2027 as we work to refine our forecast for 2027, then we'll announce official guidance three months from now. But that would be a good starting point. So, we're targeting core deposit growth in excess of loans for sure. But again, that does not contemplate the impact of the acquisitions, which should add $3.5 billion of core deposits against about $1 billion of loans. So just the organic progress that we make and then the impact of the acquisitions in 2027, it should bring loans to deposits by the end of next year into the low nineties already.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc. Your line is now open.
Hey, good morning. Travis or Ira, maybe you could update us on where Bluevine deposits, total deposits, and the cost of those deposits sit today. Just curious, by the time the deal is closed, how much do you anticipate those balances, where do you expect those to be?
Yeah. So the update as of 9/30 is they're $2.3 billion, so up $200 million during the quarter. No change to the rate there. The number of active clients has gone up by 10,000. So that's the 3Q update on Bluevine. I think that continued kind of $200 million a quarter pace is what we would anticipate. So by the time you bring the deposits over, call it April 1st, you're closer to the $2.7 billion-$2.8 billion of deposits.
Okay. Then, once you bring it all over, what is the offset? Do you pay down brokered or add securities? I'm curious which way you're leaning there. Then, with that and Providence, what is the NIM outlook once you put this all together? I don't know if there's a bogey by year-end 2027 that you'd roughly point us to.
Yeah. So as it relates to the immediate opportunity on the inflow of the deposits, we have about $1.5 billion of brokered deposits that are set to mature in the first quarter of 2027. There may be a slight timing mismatch there between getting the actual deposits from Bluevine in, but we will hold that kind of short to make sure that we can benefit as quickly as possible. We also have about $400 million of FHLB maturities in the first quarter of 2027. So our primary focus would be optimizing the funding side of the equation, and then anything excess, we'll look to potentially invest in the securities portfolio. But again, I think there's plenty of opportunity on the brokerage side where we can optimize that in pretty short order post deposit transition.
In terms of the margin, we've been kind of looking at it fourth quarter to fourth quarter. The fourth quarter of 2025 was 317. When you shake everything out, it will be up, call it more than 15 basis points through the fourth quarter of 2026. I expect a similar kind of standalone Valley margin improvement by the end of 2027. I think the acquisition, as we kind of think about the timing, should add another, call it 15 basis points to that math. I think you are certainly above 350 by the fourth quarter of 2027, all else equal, and approaching probably 360 or something like that, again, with what we are facing today with the yield curve.
Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Just last one from me. One thing I am struggling with a little bit model-wise is the outlook for buybacks. You both kind of commented you want that CRE concentration to go meaningfully below 300%, but it feels a little bit difficult if we sustain 2.5 million shares a quarter. Could you give us some idea of what that buyback might look like over the next handful of quarters?
Yeah, we certainly retain the flexibility to buy back stock. We've been consistent, though, Matt, in saying that our number one priority is supporting well-funded, high-quality organic loan growth opportunities that may occur in the quarter that we are sitting in or what our outlook is. Again, with pipeline strong, I think that's where our number one priority is. We have put incremental capital to work in the two deals that we've announced. But the underlying earnings power of the franchise is driving significant improvement in returns, which is giving us more flexibility around capital allocation. We remain flexible there. It's fully discretionary. The one thing I would just call out is that I think because of the better earnings power as we model it, our ROTCE outlook that we talked about on a standalone basis is not dependent on share repurchases in any way.
It's a flexible tool that we have, and we will monitor it and manage it. We manage it on a daily basis.
I think, Matt, just adding one sort of element to that is there is no pressure to get under 300% by a certain time. It's an important number for us as to where we think about sort of where the valuation of the organization sits. There's no pressure to get there by tomorrow, next quarter, or anything else like that. But we do believe over a long period of time, it's going to continue to trend down and well below that 300%.
All right. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Hi, this is John Rao. I'm for Jared. Going back to Bluevine, it seems like really good accretion to the margin from that. Do you see any risk to the, I guess, rate sensitivity or deposit beta of those customers as they transition to Valley or just over time?
I think it's one of the driving factors as to why we wanted to really do something with Bluevine is that those clients are really less rate sensitive than what we've seen of any other client segment. When you look at why clients choose Bluevine, it largely has nothing to do with the rate. It's the ease of use of their platform, the ability to look at it from a deposit perspective on their mobile app. Those are the choices from a relationship perspective. As we think about what that opportunity is in blending it in with Valley, we have strong relationships with advisors from the human element in our organization, a very strong branch network across a lot of geographies.
We think that we'll be able to maintain very low betas in that book and continue to accelerate what that deposit growth is to some point even greater than what Bluevine's been able to do organically on their own.
Okay, great. That's very helpful. I guess thinking about AI being more embedded in the processes of the company, what does that do to the long-term expense growth rate, and could that also benefit things like just lending growth and fee income?
I think AI has an opportunity, as I talked about last quarter, really to impact much more than just on the expense side. I think we sort of internally think the AI opportunity is probably 65% on the expenses and 35% on the revenue as we think about the additional opportunities from a cross-sell perspective and how we think about valuations on some of those individual relationships. So we feel really positive about the opportunity for AI. As we've mentioned, it's something that we've been focused on for a very long period of time, making sure the foundation, the data that we have here, what that looks like, the quality of the data, and how we can really begin to leverage it. So, AI at Valley isn't just something that we're conceptually talking about.
It's something we've already embedded into the financial results of the company, and we think it's going to be an enabler for us to continue to grow the organization with a much stronger positive operating leverage.
Okay, great. If I could just sneak one more in. Is there any seasonality in deposits we should keep in mind for 4Q?
Not on a point-to-point basis. As the quarter goes on, we typically see fourth quarter inflows in the municipal deposit side that ease a little bit into year-end. But point to point, there's no significant seasonality you should think about.
Great. Thanks for that.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question at this time, please press star one one on your touchtone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning. Wondering if you could elaborate on some of the progress that you guys have been making on the treasury management side and any color or numbers around what percent of commercial borrowers today have a treasury management relationship with the bank and how that's evolved over time.
Yeah, this is Travis. Ryan, we converted the core system of the bank actually three years ago, almost to the day. We got a more modern and mature treasury management platform. The first year after that conversion, we were focused on penetration of the product, which was fairly nascent from our customer base. As we sit today, that penetration is built up towards 60% of our C&I customers use the treasury management platform. That's supported the growth that you've seen over the last couple of years. The other element, though, that supported that growth is when we've repriced the product higher a couple of times towards market rates where we kind of sit today for the pricing of the treasury management platform.
I'd say there's not likely to be another reprice higher going forward, but still certainly opportunity to penetrate the continued customer base and any new customers that come to us on the C&I side. Still certainly expect growth in the deposit service line, but not to that same pace given the repricing benefits that we had over the last couple of years.
All right. That is helpful. 60% seems pretty high. Just wondering, as you grow C&I loans, any way to think about for every dollar of C&I loan growth, how much you expect to capture on the core deposit side? Has that capture rate also evolved over time? Is it more challenging because of higher rates?
We are not seeing any immediate change in terms of the C&I loan-to-deposit ratio for our customers. There is a couple of differences in the rate environment there, the deposit backdrop today relative to the last rate hiking cycle. I think that we are well-positioned to continue to preserve C&I deposits that we have. We are focused on it. There does tend to be for a new C&I loan, call it a three-six month lag in terms of getting up to the deposit levels that we model. I think we have seen that consistent pull-through, which has helped support the exceptional core deposit growth we have seen over the last couple of years.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris O'Connell with KBW. Your line is now open.
Hey, this is Chris on for Chris McGrotty. Just wanted to focus in on the fixed asset repricing coming up over the next year or so, and after the recent rate moves, see what the replacement yields are now coming on at on both the CRE side and on the securities book.
Yeah. Thanks, Chris. It's Travis. Long time no talk. We put that NII page in the deck that shows where runoff rates are. Reorigination rates are coming in 150-200 basis points higher than where the runoff is on the fixed rate loan portfolio. On the securities portfolio this quarter, as an example, we saw rates running off in the mid-fours, and new purchases are occurring in the mid-fives. So it's about a 100 basis points pickup on the securities side. Again, call it 150-200 basis points on the loan side.
Great. Thanks, Travis. Given the Providence deal and some of your targeted expansion into new markets over the past few years, can you guys talk about your biggest opportunities in the expansion markets going forward, maybe both in the context of loan and deposit growth?
I think as we talk about Chicago, we had a very strong franchise there as we thought about the middle market C&I. The Providence franchise is really more about the SMB and consumer opportunity within that footprint. They had a very strong deposit ratio, and we really anticipate continued deposit growth in that market that outpaces what we're doing on the loan side. So that'll help with the loan-to-deposit ratio in that area. As we go into each individual, some of these growth markets, there's always a very strong deposit element as to how we think about it. So they're relationship-focused. Everyone comes with a treasury banker associated with each of those individual markets as well. So definitely not just an asset play for us, but a full relationship that has very strong deposit goals as well.
Great. Thanks, Ira. Thanks, Travis.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. I am currently showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back over to Ira Robbins for closing remarks.
Just want to thank everyone for your attention and time today, and really look forward to meeting with you next quarter. Thank you.
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.