Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us at the Vornado Roundtable this afternoon. My name is Camille Bonnel, and I'm the office REIT analyst here at Bank of America, and we have the full bench here from Vornado. Speaking with us today is President and CFO, Michael Franco. I have next to me CEO Thomas Sanelli, and in the middle is co-head of real estate and head of leasing, Glen Weiss.
Hello.
As well as Gary Hanson at the end, who's Senior VP and Controller of Alexander's. Michael, I'll hand it over to you in a second just for any opening remarks, but we'll follow that with Q&A, and try to keep this interactive.
How much time we have, Camille?
About 30 minutes.
30 minutes. Okay, good. Good afternoon, everybody. Nice to see a lot of old friends here. So, we're happy to join, talk about our business, the office market, et cetera. Look, I think everybody knows Vornado, so maybe just a few general comments about us, the market, and then we can dive into Q&A. I don't know how many are based here in New York, but yeah, New York is clearly back and thriving again, leading the charge nationally in return to office, and I think just citywide, by pretty much any metric you look at, activity levels are back to pre-COVID, whether that's tourism, retail sales, leasing activity, you know, et cetera. You know, businesses are back to work, certainly Monday through Thursday.
Our Friday commuters don't wanna come in as much, but they're still working probably half the time, but it's basically back to normal. So, that's critical for the leasing side. I think pound-for-pound, you know, we think we have the best office portfolio in the city. An interesting stat that we've assessed, you know, we own about 4% of the market, and, you know, we've signed about 20% of the triple-digit lease deals since COVID started. So I think that's a pretty impactful statistic speaking to the quality of the portfolio and who we, who our tenant base is. You know, we have for those that you've heard us talk about the Penn District quite a bit. We'll talk about it more in Q&A.
If you've not been over there, you should go over there and see it. The work is largely done. We've completely transformed the area in terms of streetscapes, new plazas, obviously redeveloping PENN 1, PENN 2, Farley. That is the future of work. I don't think there's a better example in the country. That's an unmatched amenity program. Tenants love it. We've added seventy new F&B opportunities above and below ground, so our job now is to lease up the vacancy, which we've got a lot of activity, and Glen can talk about. I do think important to note that since we started the redevelopments, and again, PENN 1, PENN 2, Farley's about five million feet, we've leased about 1.5 million feet of that. A lot of that PENN 1 is still leased.
We turn it over as it comes, but we've leased 1.5 million sq ft at $95 a sq ft on average in PENN 1 and PENN 2, which, if you think about, we were leasing space in the low 60s, maybe mid-60s, pre-redevelopment. The program is working. Last couple of things I would say, I think most people had given up on retail, written it off, thought it was an anchor around our neck. You know, we own some of the scarcest, most prime assets worldwide. Fifth Avenue retail from 50th to 57th is as good as it gets. You know, we never lost confidence in that. Obviously, the market went through a difficult time a few years ago, but it's clearly come back now.
As I said, retail sales are back to pre-COVID levels. For many of the retailers above those, they're active in leasing, they're active in buying, as you've seen. We've participated in that, in that selling, and I think you'll see more of that on both fronts, going forward. But the retail we own is as good as it gets, both Fifth Avenue, Times Square, Union Square, and we're happy to have it in the portfolio. Last thing I'll say before we get in the Q&A, Camille, is just from a balance sheet standpoint, you know, we feel good about where we're at. We've got about $2.7 billion in liquidity, $1.1 billion in cash, $1.6 billion of undrawn capacity in our revolvers.
That does not include the proceeds coming in from the Uniqlo sale early next year or late this year, and we got some other things in the works, so we feel good about the balance sheet. We've basically addressed all our maturities in 2024, and we're focused on next year. Again, we can talk about that in Q&A, but we feel good about that, as well, so with that, I'm gonna turn it over to you and fire away.
Yeah. I mean, today feels very different from when we were sitting a year ago, and I'm sure Glen will get into all the activity you've been doing through August and into the weeks of September. But just stepping back, I'm curious to get your perspective, Michael or team, around what have been the most important changes you've seen in New York City or specifically at Vornado?
Maybe I'll start, and these guys can hop in. You know, I think the biggest changes are, you know, from maybe where we were a year ago, is. You know, a year ago, while there was certainly leasing, I think there was still uncertainty on the part of companies. There was still hesitation on the part of many companies. I think all that's passed now, right? So I think we're beyond the point where companies know how they're gonna work and, you know, how their employees are gonna work... use their space and whatnot. And so I think you just see that confidence and certainty come through in the level of activity. I think that's the biggest thing. You know, second is, you know, we've talked about financial services and the legal side being strong.
That's remained robust. But now you're seeing, and we see it particularly with our pipeline, you know, tech is definitely back, right? So that's a change. You know, and then, look, I think as Penn is. You know, you can, you can lay out the vision as much as you want, but until it's done, it's hard to fully get buy-in. And now that tenants can really walk PENN 2, it's a wow, right? And so again, I think that's translating into the low activity we have. What would you add to that?
I think that's all right. I mean, to me, it's the beat on the streets in New York. We're back. I mean, look outside what's going on here today. Can't even get here, and the buildings are busier than they've been clearly since 2020. CEOs are making decisions. It's clear. This is the busiest summer I have ever had in thirty years of doing this in terms of leasing. No vacations, and it's crazy, and when I was on vacation, I was on the phone, you know, the whole time. Tour volume is, you know, peaked. Proposals. I mean, the key is those CEOs have effectively mandated a return to the office, which in turn now has caused them to require space and make decisions.
Instead of kind of lollygagging, you know, back and forth, "What should we do?" They're now doing. And it's across most of the industry sectors. It is still definitely, you know, the better buildings are leasing and the commodity buildings are still falling behind. I will say one other thing that I think is important. You know, the bread and butter of New York is the five, 10, 15, 20 thousand foot tenants, and they're now coming back. And that was the part of the market that was mainly concerning to me coming out of this thing.
We always thought the bigger tenants would come back, but it was the bread and butter businesses of New York that are now coming back, and we're seeing, we're filling in those spots this year in that size range, which I think is really important in terms of the blocking, tackling, the rhythmic volume that we liked, that we used to see prior to 2020. So we're certainly feeling as good as we have felt in a while. The proof is in the pudding. We've leased 1.6 million sq ft this year at $119/sq ft average starting rent. Just think about those stats, and think about the stats that Michael gave you on Penn alone, 1.5 million sq ft at PENN 1 and PENN 2, post-development, and there's a lot more to come in the pipeline.
We talked on our earnings call, the last earnings call, about our pipeline. Between leases out, proposals, and negotiation, we have about two million sq ft of deals brewing in different stages, different types of tenants, different size of tenants, different buildings, but the buildings are really busy. So you know, we're feeling very good about, you know, the rest of this year going into 2025, for sure.
Yes, could you give us some estimate of the net effective rent on the $95 at Penn and the $116 you mentioned before, please?
I don't have the stats with me. I will tell you that what we've seen generally is TIs and free rent has stabilized. I don't see those rising any longer. We want them to come down. Rents in certain buildings have risen and continue to. I don't have offhand the, you know, the TIs on those deals, here with me.
Um...
We have it in the supplement, so if you go to our supplement, we give you all that information. So it's there.
Any sense on the ninety-five, what that would look like?
On net effective?
Yes.
I mean, the average term, looking at that, average term is twelve and a half years on leases signed. You know, my guess is I'm swagging it here, right? You know, probably average TI for that is probably low hundreds, honestly, because a lot of that is, you know, there were some short-term renewals that were low TIs in there, so my guess is it's no more than $10 a foot on average per year. It could be less, and then, you know, taxes, OpEx are probably $30.
Thirty.
Right. So net effective on those, you know, $55, right? If you take out after the TIs, after capital.
The net rent after TIs.
Sixty-five pre-TI and-
Thank you.
Yeah. Ballpark, right?
Glen, I was wondering if you can expand or clarify that 1.6 million sq ft leased. Is that a year-to-date number? And do you have any update on how that volume's trended into September?
Yes, that's, that's through 2Q. Doesn't include what we're going to get done this quarter, which, you know, we'll get to after we publish. So, you know, we have about 500,000 sq ft of deals, leases in negotiation right now, plus a lot of proposals over and above that.
I know we're just a few weeks after your conference call, but is there any further update that you can provide around 770 Broadway?
We cannot.
No.
Sorry.
Had to try.
I know we teased you a little bit with that, but we felt like we had to, given, you know, a couple different factors. And, so there's really not more we can say about it, but, you know, if we complete it, then, you know, it'll take care of that vacancy, and I think it'll be a transaction that, everybody will feel good about.
... And I wanted to build on your comments around tech as being back in Manhattan. And where are you seeing that demand within your portfolio?
So we're fortunate to have the Big Four, right? We have Apple, Amazon, Google, and Meta, so we know every day what they're doing. They're all busy in their own ways right now. You'll see some things happen in our portfolio. Hopefully, by the end of September, things will get signed, and we'll be able to talk about them more, you know, on our next earnings call in terms of what's happening. But, you know, they're back. Some of them, I'd say, well, are in expansion mode and thinking big about their businesses. And if you look at their stock prices, you can see why, right?
And this-
I would say, Camille, the only thing I'd add is look at the pipeline and where, you know, where are they focused? You know, it's multiple buildings, but I think the concentration is in Penn, right? And which is obviously good for us. I mean, we're anchored, we're bookended by Apple and Meta on either side of Penn. We know from having those two tenants and what went into their thought process, right, the proximity of the engineering talent in New Jersey was critical.
And so when we see, you know, the dialogues we have now, which are everything from some of the small users that Glen referenced to, you know, the big companies, you know, I think, again, the accessibility to, the biggest part of the workforce, which, you know, Penn offers you, given the transit access, you know, has been a differentiator. So we've got activity in a few spots in the city, but the dominant part, when we look at the pipeline, is in Penn.
I see much of the scaffolding around Penn's been taken down now, and you're very close to the finish line on those projects. I was wondering if you can talk a bit more about your vision and strategy in that market, and how has it changed going forward?
I think it's changed dramatically, and thank you for noticing. It's made a big difference in terms of our tour experience, and people are noticing, and it's proven in the activity we have. You know, we're deep in negotiation right now in a couple of large transactions that we're hoping to land, particularly in PENN 2, and PENN 2 continues to outperform. We have a lot of good activity there this quarter as well, but, you know, if you walk it, I mean, everyone comes away and says, "They've done this. It is great." You walk out of the trains, you... The restaurants are open, the bars are open, the plazas are open, the trees are blooming, the flowers are out there, and it feels great.
I will tell you, Plaza 33, the pedestrian park that we opened up a couple of months ago, is perfect for what we were trying to envision here for the district. It just breathed life right into the whole place, and it feels great. If you go down there, whether it's mornings, afternoons, evenings, I was out there down there last night for a dinner with some clients. I mean, it feels tremendous. It does not feel like the old Penn Plaza, that's for sure. That's made a big difference for us. When the CEOs come to tour Penn now, compared to even 90 days ago, it's unbelievably different, the experience. They come away saying they have done it. It's not a maybe. They have completed it, which is important for us, obviously.
So, I mean, Camille, I would just add on it. So, you know, in terms of the vision, you know, I think getting this first phase done was critical, right? Because it's significant in itself, but it is the tone-setter, right? And having all that done, having it be an area where you can be there from morning until night, you know, you don't have to leave to go get something to eat. People can hang out. We have a number of rooftop, you know, restaurant and deck opportunities that people utilize, and all that's really important to the user experience, right? And so, you know, we're now in the process of filling out the retail in a number of the parts of the district with uses beyond F&B.
You know, that's a key part of it. And then eventually, you know, development will make sense for, you know, the sites that we have, and we'll capitalize on that. But I think the first thing was, you know, change the district, attract the right sort of tenants that can afford to pay the rents we want. We're doing that. You know, hopefully, we're going to complete some of the things in process now, and I think that'll be, you know, a another huge step. And then, you know, we just, we keep rolling into what's next. But, you know, we feel good about, you know, this first 5 million sq ft we've done. You know, a lot of income still to come from that.
And then, you know, as I said, at some point, development will make sense on the additional sites.
And sticking on around development, we've seen Citadel still remains very committed to New York City. Are there any updates on how they're thinking about their option at 350 Park Avenue?
You know, it's. We're getting close to the point where the options open up, right? I think the options open up at the end of October. So, not to say that something has to happen then, but it's possible for something to happen then. You know, we talk with them all the time. And I think we've said this, we're in active design of their building, right? So we're getting everything ready to build, right? We've secured the air rights. We're going through the ULURP process in order to achieve the additional zoning bonus that's available. You know, in Midtown East, we're designing the building. And so, you know, now it's just a matter of what they want to do and then what we'd want to do.
We're not quite there, but, you know, we're taking all the steps necessary to do it. But, you know, I think the interesting thing is that, you know, it used to be where when you had a certain delta between, you know, newer, new building rents and maybe some older building rents, right? Tenants would get a little bit price sensitive. You know, that's not the case, right? Tenants are-- I don't think we've ever seen a disparity between, call it trophy space and other spaces we've seen today, right? I mean, tenants are-- I don't want to say they're price insensitive, but, you know, they're so focused on talent, retention, attraction, creating the right environment, that, you know, they're willing to pay up for that in the right locations.
And, you know, Hudson Yards is achieving, you know, north of $200 a sq ft. Park Avenue is achieving north of $200 a sq ft. I mean, we get reverse inquiries already, notwithstanding the buildings, you know, if we started today, you know, couldn't do demo, you know, you're 5-6 years away from delivery. Inquiries are already, if we want to take space in that building, right? And the rents that, you know, they would have to pay, which would be, you know, well into the $200s, they don't blink an eye, right? So I think that's a healthy dynamic.
And so, you know, we remain constructive on the opportunity, as does Citadel, and, you know, we'll see in the near term, you know, whether that gets off the ground or it takes a little more time. But, you know, I think they remain as constructive and view New York as important as they ever have.
Can you remind us, are there any contingencies on that option, whether, like, you have to deliver certain planning proposals?
Yeah, I mean, you know, the answer is, I would say nothing substantive, right? I mean, for us, to me, there's a call, there's a put, there's a development JV. There's no contingencies on the put or the call on the development side. You know, everything that has to happen for that to get off the ground is in the works. So, you know, it really just comes down to, you know, what do they want to do? And ultimately, what-
What do we want to do? We like our position.
And similarly, you know, can you talk to your strategy or strategies that you're implementing in your other markets like Chicago, San Francisco, that are helping rejuvenate that office environment?
Sure. So, I mean, San Francisco is the best tenant roster, probably of any building in the country. And, you know, that's something that we pride ourselves on. We are attacking all of our expirations, 2025, 2026. We believe we'll be enormously successful in keeping everybody. And there's competitive space out there. There's 30+% vacancy in the market, but this building continues to beat the market. We don't rest on our laurels. You know, we're bringing certain themes that we've done, particularly in Penn, the 555, not spending an enormous lot of money, but I'll call it nice amenity touches to the asset. In the lobby, the furniture, technology, we just freshened up our town hall.
We brought in some new food and beverage, which is breathing some, I'll say, refreshed new life, new hospitality into the campus, which I think the tenants are loving what we're doing there. Most of them know what we've done in New York. So, you know, they'll call: "Hey, Glen, can you do something like what you did at PENN 1 or five hundred and fifty-five?" You know, that kind of thing, which is a good thing. We like that. So in San Francisco, particularly, we feel very good about our where we are. Our dialogue with the tenants is going very well. And, you know, we feel good.
All right. I just have one thing for you, Chicago.
Yeah, sure.
I think, and correct me if I'm wrong here, I think since COVID started, I think we've leased 750,000 sq ft at 555 California Street. We have another... Well, I won't give the exact number. We have a significant amount of renewals in process, and I think maybe by lease, but certainly in total-
Mm-hmm.
You know, I think every one of those has been a positive mark to market.
Mm-hmm.
So when you think about what's going on in San Francisco, which it is challenged, right? It's got its challenges, certainly, the broad market, as Glen says, and the 30+% vacancy. Again, I think that speaks to the quality of the asset, the quality of the sponsorship. And it's not like the tenants don't have options. I mean, you know, there's five or six buildings that are the true trophy buildings, obviously outperforming the market significantly, but 555 is even within those five or six, outperforming the market. And I think there's a number of factors there, but, you know, it's pound-for-pound, and one of the best office buildings in the country. You know, you'd build that same building today. So anyway, that, that's San Francisco.
I would say-
Elaborate a bit on how you would define best tenant roster in the building you have?
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Dodge & Cox, Cooley, Kirkland & Ellis, Microsoft.
KKR
KKR
McKinsey.
McKinsey.
As good as it gets.
Yeah.
Credit and brand.
Huge credit, huge brand.
lot of cachet for those tenants to be in the building.
They like to be in the same place together.
Yep.
I think just before we go on to Chicago, I think one of the concerns around San Francisco and that market is it really needs some new life to fill in for tech. And I think we're realizing that AI, well, it's an optimistic industry that can grow exponentially, we need that market needs, and city needs to be more diverse. So are you seeing businesses based on tenants or new, existing or new tenants that you're talking to, starting to think about San Francisco and moving there?
We're a bit insulated from, you know, needing new tenants, so I might not have a perfect purview of it. But I will tell you that the city is definitely improving. I would say, you know, last time we were out there, streets feel better, safer, people feel more confident in the city. Restaurants were busier than the time before that. Leasing's picked up some in the market, not just at our building. I mean, there's some action out there, but in terms of some magic new entry, entrant, you know, yes, there, you know, there is AI activity, but otherwise, I would say it's more musical chair action than a new industry coming in right now that I could speak of.
Camille, I would challenge your comment a little bit, in the sense of I agree with Glen's comment. I think the city does feel better. I think the political winds have shifted some. I think this upcoming election will be important one as well. But I think the trend is actually positive there. Not as fast as everybody would like, but it is positive. But look, the reality is San Francisco has always been a bit more volatile than the other major cities, right? And it's gonna be a tech-oriented market, right? That's not going to change, right? Notwithstanding, we are a financial services tenant building, which we like. You know, the city is gonna still be heavily dominated by the tech industry, and that's fine, in my opinion, right? I mean, that is the...
You know, New York is almost on par with San Francisco, tech-wise, but, you know, you're proximate to some of the leading universities, VCs, et cetera, out there that are gonna continue to invest, create companies. You know, we weren't talking about AI two years ago, and now it's leased, I don't know, 8 million sq ft in the city or 6 million sq ft, some huge number, and that's gonna keep going. So, tech is what's gonna drive the broader market back, and I think that's fine. You know, tech will resurge. It is resurging generally, and there's new companies started all the time out there. And so, you know, it's just a matter of how long it takes.
Tech hasn't been in Manhattan for very long, at least from what I recall. Do you see potential for that industry to actually grow to the scale that they've built in the West Coast?
I think definitely. But you should talk about some of your conversations you hear from them in terms of what, what they tell you.
I think it's gonna be a grower. I think no doubt about it, that's gonna happen, and we're seeing it in New York and California. If you think about tech, you know, I think since 2013-ish, New York has clearly become the second hub in the country, you know, with California being the first still, and you know, we're seeing some of those discussions now.
What's the average size that the AI businesses are looking at?
It's on the smaller side right now. There's a couple larger ones, but, you know, ten thousand here, twenty here, maybe a thirty. The smaller variety for now. There's one large, larger one out there that has a lease out, but otherwise, you know, less than fifty thousand feet, I would call it.
Thank you. And any thoughts on Chicago?
Sure. So, you know, we just completed a deal that we're gonna announce soon, a big deal in the building, a tenant in the building expanding by a big margin. We just signed that up, which we're gonna announce soon. Activity's picked up in the market off the heels of completing the, you know, the amenity program last year with the fitness, the conference, the outdoor park, et cetera. I think the market's improving. I will say it's not a big tenant market right now. There's not big headquarters deals happening, but there's action. There's action between, call it twenty to a hundred thousand feet. There's activity. We have other leases out there we're trying to get done right now. You know, we're filling the gaps. So tours have definitely picked up.
So I think it's getting better, but it's got a ways to go still to get to where New York is particularly.
I'd say it's behind San Francisco.
Behind San Francisco, definitely.
So it sounds like you have some really good activity, potential catalysts on the horizon. Michael, I was wondering how we should think about the potential earnings, the growth from these leases, given, like, where we are in the year. Anything you're likely to sign today probably follows in twenty twenty-six. So what are the key, key pieces we should be thinking about?
You know, I knew you were gonna ask me that, Camille. You know, I think it's early to give you too much visibility there 'cause there are a lot of moving pieces, you know, as evidenced by things like, you know, the Uniqlo sale. We're working on some other things. But, you know, I think that. Like, I think you're correct, that a lot of the activity that Glen's working on, for example, on PENN 2, you know, that really won't hit the income line until, you know, by the latter part of next year, more likely 2026, right? So, you know, we do think that 2025 will be, you know, we still sort of, you know, not huge growth. Hopefully, some growth, right? We have to see what sort of the ins and outs are.
I think 2026 is when you'll see, you know, meaningful growth, and then thereafter. So again, I think until we get a little further on the year, we see exactly what gets done, leasing, other monetization transactions, I think it's just too early to comment, 'cause there's some things that could swing it, you know, a number of different ways. But, I think in general, in terms of the significant, I think, I think we look at it and say, look, we know 2026 major inflection point, whether next year is up some, it's not going to be as dramatic as 2026, right? And we'll see, you know, based on everything we, we have, you know, in the works, you know, what next year looks like. But I think 2026 is the, is sort of that key step function up.
And just to clarify on that trajectory, is that on your same store NOI core portfolio or at an earnings level? Because if you think about Penn two delivering, Penn one completing this year and the capitalized interest, hitting the balance sheet or income statement next year-
Yeah.
Can you just talk about the timing of that? And then, yeah, kind of.
I mean, I'm going to let Tom talk about the capitalized interest, but I think the answer to your question is yes, it's same store.
Right. On the capitalized interest, you know, PENN 2 is in that number in 2024, and the piece of it will stay in 2025, but it obviously starts phasing out. So the second half of 2025, you start seeing the capitalized interest roll off, and then obviously we don't project anything in 2026 at this point for capitalized interest.
Thank you.
I have a question. What do you think, cap rates are for retail, street high-quality street retail? Take out the owner sales.
You know, the answer is we don't know. All right? I mean, there's just these assets, frankly, rarely trade, right? That's the bottom line. Even in good times, if you look back on Fifth Avenue transactions, they rarely trade. You know, we did an analysis recently of Fifth Avenue going back to 2010 of cap rates. I think an average low four cap rate for all buyers, right? So where is it today? You know, I don't know that it's that far off our purchase, right? In other words, we're not going to sell a Fifth Avenue asset unless we get a phenomenal price, right? And so do I think that there are investors that would pay, you know, let's call it a four cap? Yes. Right? I mean, there are investors that appreciate these are scarce assets. You know, they're six, seven blocks.
They're not going to make any more of it. Now, the users are on some of it, so there's even less of it available for third party. So look, we've been approached by investors on Fifth Avenue, and I would say we haven't engaged significantly because, you know, just for a variety of reasons I don't want to get into. But you know, I think on Fifth, I think investors appreciate the scarcity asset. I think Times Square, you know, a little different, because now you get into signage and you know, to investors, how do they think about that, right? And you know, the scale of the assets in some cases is larger.
But again, I think for the best assets, you'll see aggressive pricing, right? I think users are more likely to buy on Fifth and Times Square, where, you know, somebody's probably not going to buy a whole block, as opposed to maybe a condo interest in something. But, you know, the interest in street retail is high, and I think investors have certainly gotten more constructive because it's financiable, and they view the best assets as durable. And, you know, New York is one of those markets where, you know, retailers want to be forever. And so, you know, yes, it may go up and down, but the trend line over time has been up.
Michael, I just wanted to go back to your balance sheet, because I can't remember a time where you really had to access the capital markets. Now, with rate cuts-
Much, much to your bankers' chagrin.
Just wondering, like, given the expiry profile of the business, is it something you're looking to do to term out your debt, or is asset sales still your preferred source of liquidity?
Look, the end-- you know, we look at all options, and we look at them, you know, constantly. So, you know, we are very attuned to what can get done in the marketplace, you know, debt and equity-wise, you know, mortgage-wise, you know, you name it. You know, for a while, you know, the mortgage market was not that hospitable, right? That's obviously changed a lot for retail, and it's now changing for office, which is good, right? I mean, we're seeing the baseline of a market forming for office. And, you know, once you start seeing that, you know, things do tend to tighten.
Obviously, with what looks like impending Fed cuts, treasury being down, you know, I think that's gonna create a little more stability in the markets, too, on the traditional CMBS side. Unsecured markets tightened, you know, quite a bit in the last, you know, six, 12 months. So, you know, we look at everything, and I would not, you know, rule anything off the table, other than I don't think we're going to issue equity anytime soon. But you know, in terms of other products, I mean, we look at everything. And so you know, our goal is both to term out our debt as well as to, you know, take down our leverage levels.
And so obviously, in order to do the latter, you know, you do have to—you got to do one of two things, right? You have to grow your earnings, which we're in the process of doing, principally through Penn. And then secondarily, you know, you can monetize assets and use that to pay down debt, right? So the answer is, we're doing all of the above, and certainly, you know, we're looking at the capital markets, as well. And you know, we have a couple bond issuances maturing in the next 21 months, and you know, rolling those over in the bond market is certainly a possibility.
Okay, and just to clarify, you said you're ruling out equity?
Yeah, I don't see us issuing straight equity anytime soon, given our view of value relative to where the stock's trading.
Got it. I have some rapid-fire questions for the team, but I am curious just to get your thoughts on just opportunities to diversify your income through investments. What are you looking at today, and what could you do?
So I don't know whether your comment is diversifying in terms of leveraging our capital or getting into other asset classes or both. Now, remember, we are in the residential business a little bit already with a couple of holdings we have. You know, I think that, look, we are a New York company. I think our focus is gonna remain in New York, and there's a new investment, although we would look at San Francisco. You know, from a leveraging or from a diversifying our income stream standpoint, you know, I think, like, we are actively looking at opportunities. We think there will be opportunities that are interesting, as lenders finally, you know, come to grips with certain assets and decide to, you know, sell those, right?
Which we've been talking to some for a while. It's maybe they're on stage four or five of grief in, in some cases, but they're getting there, and maybe year-end is a precipitating factor. So we are looking at opportunities, and I think between some external things and then even from our own development opportunities, you know, I think we will look, in many cases, maybe most cases, to partner with third-party capital, right? Leverage our capital. And so inherently, when you do that, whatever fee streams we're generating are, you know, they help drive better yields to the bottom line. You know, if you think on 350 Park Avenue, for example, you know, we have a built-in partner for 64% of the deal, right?
So, you know, our equity returns should be pretty compelling when you add in the development fees and the leasing and management fees and whatnot on top of, you know, what we think the asset will produce. So, you know, I think on the development side, you know, we will seek to partner in those cases. And on the new business side, you know, we want to be active. We think there's gonna be interesting opportunities, and we're also, you know, realistic that, you know, our balance sheet is not... While we have a lot of liquidity, we also have commitments we've made in Penn, right? We don't want to leverage up the balance sheet, and so, you know, in a lot of cases, we'll look to partner on those situations as well.
So I think that's a way to sort of, you know, leverage our capital as diversifying our income stream is sort of an adjunct to that. You know, we do have other businesses that we run in-house: signage, parking, et cetera, and, and, you know, we charge the teams with growing those businesses separately. And if there's opportunities to do that, we do it. Our guys on the cleaning side, I think, have done a masterful job. We probably clean, I don't know, Tom, I mean, could be 20 million feet of third party at this point. So, you know, try to grow those businesses as well.
Thank you, Michael. That actually leads me to my first rapid-fire question-
Okay.
on whether or not you expect real estate transactions to increase once the Fed starts to cut, and if so, when? Fourth quarter of this year, or first half of next year, or second half?
In terms of transaction activity?
Yes.
Transaction activity is definitely going up. I think it'll be quite stronger next year. Could it become stronger this year? I mean, you think about it, with September, if it's not in the works, probably doesn't close this year, right? So in terms of what gets reported, you know, I don't know that you'll see a huge step up fourth quarter. I think you will see more brought to market in the fourth quarter. But I think 2025, you'll see a significant increase, driven by, I just think, stability in the financing markets, right? I think sort of the all clear sign has been given that you can generally get a lot of assets sold.
I think you're gonna see lenders take their lumps in a lot of cases, and so it'll be, it'll be time to transact in many cases.
Do you expect that to be earlier half of 2024, 2025 or 2026?
I'm not smart enough to know that.
Okay, we'll put down 25. How would you characterize demand for space today: improving, steady, or weakening?
I didn't hear the question.
How would you characterize demand for space today: improving-
Yeah.
Steady, or weakening?
Improving.
All right.
That was easy.
And lastly, just around AI spending initiatives for next year, do you expect to ramp that up, hold it flat, or-
For Vornado?
For Vornado.
It's got to be better than zero today, right? So probably higher.
We're trying. We're trying.
We have tasked Tom a few months ago with figuring out how we leverage AI.
Yes.
And I think we've concluded that we have, you know, we utilize a lot of software, et cetera, and, you know. But we will incorporate AI into our business, but, you know, there's companies that all they do is have people to focus on that, and so we're gonna leverage what they're doing as opposed to, you know, trying to do something in-house, which is, you know, probably not gonna be a game changer.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you.