Good afternoon, and welcome to WEC Energy Group's conference call for first quarter 2022 results. This call is being recorded for rebroadcast, and all participants are in a listen-only mode at this time. Before the conference call begins, I remind you that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they're made. In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share, unless otherwise noted.
After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call. Now it's my pleasure to introduce Gale Klappa, Executive Chairman of WEC Energy Group.
From the home of the defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks, good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the first quarter of 2022. First, I'd like to introduce the members of our management team who are here with me today. We have Scott Lauber, our President and Chief Executive, Xia Liu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Beth Straka, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. Now, as you saw from our news release this morning, we reported first quarter 2022 earnings of $1.79 a share. Our results were largely driven by colder than normal weather, a strong economy, and the performance of our infrastructure segment.
In light of this strong start to the year, we're raising our earnings guidance by $0.05 a share for 2022 to a range of $4.34-$4.38 a share, with an expectation of reaching the top end of this new range. This, of course, assumes normal weather for the remainder of 2022. Our balance sheet and cash flows remain strong, and as we discussed, this allows us to fund a highly executable capital plan without issuing equity. We're also making good headway on our $17.7 billion ESG Progress Plan, the largest five-year capital plan in company history. The plan is focused on efficiency, sustainability, and growth. Over the past few months, we've received regulatory approval for more than $1.1 billion of needed capital projects in Wisconsin.
Scott will provide more detail in just a few minutes. We're preparing the way for further progress ahead. As you may have seen, our Wisconsin utilities filed rate reviews with the Public Service Commission for the two-year period 2023 and 2024. We provided you with details in the earnings packet that we released this morning, and Scott will cover the highlights in just a moment. The request, ladies and gentlemen, is all about the investments we need to make to enhance reliability for customers and continue the largest clean energy transition in our history. I would add that even with this request, the typical electric bill for our residential customers will remain below the national average. Switching gears now, many of you have asked about the solar panel investigation by the Department of Commerce. There clearly will be impacts across the industry.
At our companies, we may see some price increases and potential delays, particularly on the solar and battery projects that are still going through the regulatory approval process in Wisconsin. The important point is that we do not expect the review by the U.S. Department of Commerce to have any material impact on our five-year capital plan. In summary, we're poised to continue our strong track record, delivering among the best risk-adjusted returns our industry has to offer. We expect our ESG progress plan to support average growth in our asset base of 7% a year, driving earnings growth, dividend growth, and dramatically improved environmental performance. Across our generating fleet, we're targeting a 60% reduction in carbon emissions by the end of 2025 and an 80% reduction by the end of 2030, both from a 2005 baseline.
By the end of 2030, we expect our use of coal for power generation will be immaterial, and we're aiming for a complete exit from coal by the end of the year 2035. Our capital investments fully support this transition. Of course, for the longer term, we remain focused on the goal of net zero carbon emissions from power generation by 2050. We're also investing in our natural gas distribution business and developing sources of renewable natural gas. Our plan is to achieve net zero methane emissions by the end of 2030. With those goals in mind, we're working to help shape the future of clean energy. Hydrogen, for example, could be a key part of the solution in the decades ahead.
Earlier this year, as you recall, we announced one of the first hydrogen power pilot programs of its kind in the United States. We're joining with the Electric Power Research Institute to test hydrogen as a fuel source at one of our natural gas-powered units in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Engineering specifications and testing protocols are now being developed and we're on track for actual blending of hydrogen in the unit this fall. We look forward to sharing the results across the industry. Now let's take a brief look at the regional economy. The latest available data show Wisconsin's unemployment rate at 2.8%, of course, well below the national average. The state's economy recovered throughout 2021 with especially strong growth in the manufacturing sector. We continue to see major investments from growing companies in our region.
For example, Amazon is expanding its presence in southeastern Wisconsin with plans to lease a 1 million sq ft building that is now under development. This expansion could add 400 new jobs to Amazon's workforce, a workforce that is already 3,000 strong in the region. Uline's workforce is also on the rise. Uline, as you may know, is one of the nation's largest suppliers of packaging and shipping materials. 700 employees joined Uline's workforce in Wisconsin last year, and Uline expects to add 300 more jobs this year. We remain optimistic about not only the strength but the trajectory of the regional economy. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott for more information on our utility operations and our infrastructure segment as well. Scott, all yours.
Thank you, Gale. As Gale mentioned, across Wisconsin, we're making good progress on the transition of our generation fleet and our ESG Progress Plan. Work continues on our Badger Hollow II solar facility in the southwestern part of the state. We have a plan for delivery and acceptance of the panels, and we expect clearance from customs in a reasonable timeframe. We still project Badger Hollow II to be in service in the first half of 2023. Recently, the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved our purchase of 90% of the Paris Solar Battery Park. It's the largest investment of its kind in Wisconsin history. Located south of Milwaukee, this facility will host 200 MW of solar generation and 110 MW of battery storage, providing our customers with sunshine after sunset.
Regarding the solar panels, we have a line of sight on production and delivery, and we still project commercial operation by mid-2023. The situation with battery production and delivery is more fluid, and we'll work through the details. We'll provide you with more information about potential delays in the battery installation of the Paris facility. Of course, we'll continue to examine our capacity situation in light of these developments. To put all this in perspective, it's worth noting that only 3% of our five-year capital plan is devoted to renewables and battery storage in 2023. Turning to other important projects, the commission has approved our plans to build 128 megawatts of natural gas generation at our existing Weston power plant site in northern Wisconsin.
The new facility will use seven reciprocating internal combustion engines, or as we call them, RICE units. These dispatchable units will support the retirement of older, less efficient coal generation. We expect this project to go into service in 2023. As Gale noted, WEC Infrastructure was a positive driver for the quarter with the addition of Jayhawk, which entered commercial operation in mid-December. Thunderhead will be the next wind farm to go into service, and we now expect that in the fall of this year. As discussed before, we remain ahead of schedule in our five-year capital investment plan for our infrastructure business. Turning to gas distribution, just last week, we signed another contract to use renewable natural gas or RNG from a local dairy farm. This new agreement brings us halfway to our net zero methane goal for the end of 2030.
Now I'll touch on the rate filings Gale mentioned. On April 28, we filed a rate review with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. Our proposed plans would help us to continue to reduce emissions, strengthen key infrastructure, and provide affordable power to customers. I'll discuss the request to set rates for We Energies and Wisconsin Public Service. You can refer to pages 14 and 15 of the earnings packet for more details. Under our plans for the two utilities, the typical electric bill for residential customers would increase approximately $5-$6 a month in 2023, or roughly 5%-6%. Key drivers for our proposed increase include capital investments in renewables, battery storage, natural gas generation, and LNG storage for our gas distribution system. Many of these projects have already been approved.
In addition, we are introducing grid hardening projects that are part of a ten-year plan to protect our system against severe weather. The rate review includes other costs that have been authorized to recover in previous proceedings. In summary, this represents only the second time in eight years we have asked for a base rate increase for We Energies. We expect final orders by the end of the year, with new rates effective in January 2023. We have no other regulatory reviews pending across our companies. With that, I'll turn it back to Gale.
Scott, thank you very much. As you may recall, our board of directors at its January meeting raised our quarterly cash dividend by 7.4%. We believe this increase will rank in the top decile of our industry. We continue to target a payout ratio of 65%-70% of earnings. We're right in the middle of that range now, so I expect our dividend growth will continue to be in line with the growth in earnings per share. Today, we're reaffirming our projection of long-term earnings growth at 6%-7% a year. Again, we do not see any need to issue new equity. Next up, Xia will provide more details on our first quarter numbers and our second quarter guidance. Xia, all yours.
Thanks, Gale. Our 2022 first quarter earnings of $1.79 per share increased 18 cents per share compared to the first quarter of 2021. Our earnings package includes a comparison of first quarter results on page 13. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Starting with our utility operations, we grew our earnings by 13 cents compared to the first quarter of 2021. First, rate-based growth contributed 13 cents to earnings. As we continued to execute on our ESG Progress Plan, we grew our utility rate base by over 7% last year. Next, colder winter weather conditions drove a 5-cent increase in earnings when compared to the first quarter of last year. Also, continued economic recovery added a penny, reflecting stronger weather-normalized sales during the quarter. Overall, we saw a continued economic rebound in the first quarter of 2022.
Weather-normalized retail natural gas deliveries in Wisconsin, excluding gas used for power generation, were up 3.6% compared to the first quarter of 2021. Residential natural gas sales were up 1.6% from the first quarter of 2021, and commercial and industrial natural gas sales were up 6.8%. Additionally, weather-normalized retail deliveries of electricity, excluding the iron ore mine, were up 0.7% compared to the first quarter of 2021. These positive drivers were partially offset by $0.04 of higher depreciation and amortization expense and a $0.01 increase each in day-to-day O&M and fuel. Overall, we added $0.13 quarter over quarter from utility operations. Earnings at our energy infrastructure segment improved $0.06 in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021. Higher production tax credits, driven by strong wind production, added $0.03 in earnings.
We also recognized a $0.03 earnings contribution in Q1 this year from the final resolution of market settlements in the Southwest Power Pool that were related to Storm Uri. Finally, you'll see that earnings at our corporate and other segment decreased to $0.01 when compared to the first quarter of 2021. Unfavorable Rabbi Trust performance resulted in a $0.02 earnings reduction. This was partially offset by a pickup of $0.01 from our investment in a clean energy fund. In summary, we improved on our first quarter 2021 performance by $0.18 per share. Looking now at the cash flow statement on page 6 of the earnings package, net cash provided by operating activities increased $682 million. Cash earnings and recovery of commodity costs contributed to this increase.
Total capital expenditures and asset acquisitions were $384 million in the first quarter of 2022, a $207 million decrease from 2021. This was primarily driven by spending on Jayhawk Wind Farm. In closing, before I turn it back to Gale, I'd like to provide our guidance for the second quarter. For the quarter, we're expecting a range of $0.82-$0.84 per share. This accounts for April weather and assumes normal weather for the rest of the quarter. As a reminder, we earned $0.87 per share in the second quarter last year, which included an estimated $0.03 from favorable weather. As Gale mentioned earlier, we're raising our 2022 earnings guidance to a range of $4.34-$4.38 per share, with an expectation of reaching the top end of the new range.
With that, I'll turn it back to Gale.
Xia, thank you. Overall, we're on track and focused on delivering value for our customers and our stockholders. Operator, we're now ready to open it up for the Q&A portion of the call.
Thank you. Now we will take your questions. The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. To ask a question, please press the star key followed by the digit one on your phone. If you are using a speakerphone, turn off your mute function to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We will take as many questions as time permits. Once again, press star and then one on your phone to ask a question. Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Rock and roll, Shar.
Hey guys, how's it been? Good.
Good afternoon.
Hey Gale, congrats. Yeah, congrats on the Bucks making it to round two of the playoffs.
Gonna be a tough series, but boy, they sure showed up yesterday.
For sure. Gale, just on the Wisconsin rate cases and specifically storm hardening and grid resiliency, how should we sort of think about maybe the timing and pace of the spending for the 800 miles of undergrounding planned over the next decade. What's the sort of cost per mile? And is 800 miles just a starting point for maybe an expanded program?
Yeah. I think, Shar, the best way to look at it is what we have proposed in the rate review is really the start of about a 10-year program that we see ahead of us, to maintain reliability, and to really make sure that we continue to be one of the most reliable utilities in terms of outage history and restoration in the country. You know, we've had a great track record, but we're seeing, you know, last year in particular, I mean, we saw some very serious storms. I don't think that's going to abate necessarily. We also have aging equipment. So we have laid out, and Scott can give you more detail, but we've laid out internally a 10-year grid hardening program. What you see in the rate case, Scott, is the start of that.
Correct, Gale.
Okay.
So the-
Yeah
Yeah, the start of it is starting in 2023, and it's about $700 million right now, but we'll continue to evaluate it like we do for. Seven hundred million over that ten-year period. It's more than just undergrounding, it's adding the technology to the grid, you know, more reclosers, you know, more of that self-healing technology. Similar to the benefits we had in a couple projects in Northern Wisconsin, where we saw a 97% improvement. Looking forward to this program. It's about $700 million. Of course, as we get into it, we'll evaluate it more.
Okay. Got it. Scott, this is incremental to the plan or is this inclusive of the current plan?
No, that has been factored in our ten-year plan, as we laid that out last year or at our five-year plan. Remember, that just gives our runway a lot longer runway as we look through this, because the majority of our system is getting to that 50, 60, 70 years old, and now is the time, I think, at how you renew that system. Shar , we've got some transformers as old as you are, so you know, we really need to kinda replace them.
Wait, they're only 22-year-old transformers? That's pretty. Just Gale, you've done a, you know, you guys have done a great job kind of reducing O&M historically. I guess now, you know, I guess how are you thinking about your current O&M target of flat to 1% reduction in light of some of the observable inflationary pressures we're seeing in the market, especially if they're not transitory? Just remind us what level of O&M reductions for 2023 and 2024 are you assuming in the case you just filed, in the cases?
Well, we'll take the answer in two pieces, and I'll ask Xia to give you the 2023 number for the rate review. Long story short, for 2022, our target was a 0%-1% reduction in day-to-day O&M. We still believe that's achievable, and that's what's in our plan. Then when you look at the filing for the rate review, in light of inflation, in light of wage increases, et cetera, we have proposed in the rate review a modest increase in O&M for 2023. Xia?
Yeah. If you compare to the last rate order in 2020, our rate case filing for O&M is actually a net reduction of 2.6%. Compared to what the commission ordered us three years ago, we actually proposed a reduction. If you compare to the actual 2021, it's a modest increase like Gale mentioned.
Okay. Got it. Then just real quick lastly from Gale, it sounds like thank you for addressing the supply, you know, chain constraints and circumvention issues, but I just wanna bring this home. Do you still feel comfortable with the 700 megawatts of solar in the current plan, which you haven't filed for approvals on yet? Or could we see some of that replaced with, for instance, let's say, wind? Can you pivot if these tail risks aren't subsided?
Yeah, it's a great question, Shar, and I think the short answer is yes. We're at a point where pivots are certainly still doable. Let me be clear about that. Scott covered with you the two projects that are really on the immediate horizon that have already received regulatory approval, that are already, you know, in the earliest stages of construction. We either have a plan or a line of sight on those two projects related to the solar panels. We feel very good about that. When you think about the projects that are still going through, the solar and battery projects that are still going through Wisconsin regulatory review, you know, there may be price increases, there may be some delays.
If you think about, as Scott said, you think about our total five-year capital plan, less than 3% of that is in solar and batteries in 2023. We've got significant projects that are not solar related, like the very important capacity additions of the RICE units in Northern Wisconsin. Yes, we could still, if we needed to, pivot to wind. We feel very good about where we are, even in light of the difficult situation posed by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Terrific. Thank you guys so much, and congrats on the results and, hopefully, Beth continues to make a really speedy recovery. Thanks, guys.
Great. Thank you so much, Shar.
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Rock and roll, Julien.
Hey, afternoon. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it. Hope you guys are all doing well. Beth, hope you're doing, in particular, better here.
Very good. She's one with the moment.
Okay. Fair enough. I'll keep going. I was like, "Wait a second. I got cut off." All right. Just coming back, kind of filling out on what I heard you guys say a moment ago, and then also in the remarks here. You know, any net delays to your projects, forget 2022, but really in that later period in 2023 and 2024, how does that impact the rate application that was filed, right? First off, and then secondly, it sounds as if, you know, to the extent to which anything shifts here, et cetera, you're committing to be largely intact in your numbers regardless. Again, I just want to make sure. I would like to close the gap on that last question.
Great clarification, Julien. Yes, given everything we're seeing right now, the five-year capital plan, the ESG Progress Plan at $17.7 billion, we don't see anything that will derail that five-year capital plan. Could something move between here or there, depending upon how long this U.S. Department of Commerce investigation goes? Could we pivot to wind, you know, wind instead of a particular solar installation in a given year? Yes. But we have a lot of flexibility, Scott.
No, absolutely. We'll be looking at it. As you recall, in Wisconsin, we have a two-year forward-looking test year. That'll give us an opportunity to look at 2024, any effects on the timing of the batteries and the cost of the solar as we look at putting that next part of the case together.
Excellent. Thank you.
Does that help, Julien?
Absolutely. Appreciate it. Then, just if you can speak to this a little bit more, I mean, especially as you think about the solar net impact as well over time, like where you are within your CAGR. But I think the bigger point I wanted to bring up here is what's driving the guidance raise already and pointing to the upper end already, right? I mean, just to frame it here, it's not, it doesn't seem as if your retail sales outlook at 0.5% year-over-year growth is particularly outside. You know, weather's obviously a tailwind, but, you know, O&M looks like a little bit of a drag, you know, ex the Rabbi Trust. Like, what's driving this pivot here, if you can speak to it?
Also, you know, where are you in this, you know, long-term EPS outlook, especially net of any gyrations in solar irrespective here?
All right, two points. Two pieces to the question. The first is essentially the nickel raise is really the result of results outside of our utilities. I mean, if you think about the performance of the infrastructure segment, if you think about the penny pickup from the technology fund that we've invested in, basically you get to about a nickel. Essentially, if you think about being on target with a strong start, but being on target for the remainder of the year for our utility earnings projections, and then you layer on what happened in the first quarter with our infrastructure segment and with the pickup from the Energize Ventures, I mean, basically there was no reason not to raise guidance by $0.05.
That was our thinking, essentially, as we raised the range. Again, we expect to come in at the top end of that range. Longer term, you know, as I said in the prepared remarks, we still believe we're at 6%-7% earnings per share growth for the longer term. Again, no need to issue equity.
Excellent. Thank you for that. It seems like, as you said, you took the words out of my mouth for the next little clarification. The energy infrastructure is tracking well above expectations. It was above expectations for one Q. Really the delta here for the balance of the year, which you just accruing that into the energy infra. It's not as if there's some further offset through the course of the year that would impact the infrastructure segment.
You are correct.
Excellent. All righty, I'll leave it there. Thank you guys very much. All the best.
You're welcome, Julien. Take care.
Your next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.
Hello, Michael, how are you doing?
Good, Gale. Thanks. How about yourself?
Oh, we're good. We're good.
Great.
Hoping for a win tomorrow night in Boston.
Awesome. That sounds good. Yes, sorry to beat a dead horse here, but just sticking kind of with some of the solar questions to start off. I guess first, can you just clarify when you say line of sight on production and delivery, does that mean you physically have the panels for your near-term projects? Then also, if we could just get a little more color on what exactly is going on on the battery side of things. I wasn't quite following what's causing the delays there.
Okay, sure. We'll be happy to do that. Scott can provide you with some detail as well. Let me just start out by saying this. Scott mentioned a plan on the first project, which is the first project we mentioned, which is the very nearest term one, which is Badger Hollow II. We got a plan. We know where the solar panels are. We're confident in the schedule. That's really pretty clear. On Paris, which really got approved just very recently, there we have clear sight on a production schedule and a delivery schedule and a clear sense given precedent that there won't be a customs problem. Scott, you want to add on to that?
No, that's exactly. We've talked through this quite a bit, walking through the details and logistics. Looking at our timeframe, you know, the sites are getting ready right now. So it's just a matter of delivery of the panels. Like Gale said, we laid out the delivery and, you know, still feel comfortable with that, beginning of the year, midyear 2023 for the completion of those two sites on the solar aspect. As we look into the batteries, the batteries across the country has just been a little, you know, a little more volatile and trying to get the delivery and production of those batteries delivered to a site. So we're just very cautious here till we work through more of the details.
We first wanted to work through the solar aspects of it, and now we'll, you know, go after the batteries and lay out a schedule for those.
Scott's right. To put all that in perspective, if you look at our five-year capital plan and the 2023 spending, the 2023 spending on batteries that was in the five-year plan, the 2023 spending on batteries is, like, 1% of our $17.7 billion capital plan. It's not, I mean, it's not gonna move the needle significantly one way or another. Is that helpful, Michael?
That is. If I could just follow on there, in terms of the cost of things, I think you mentioned a little bit of fluidity there too, but maybe if you can just level set on what you saw for some of your most recent solar projects, and then where things are tracking, at least as of right now on some of the nearer term ones.
Yeah. For the future solar projects, Scott, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 30%-40% increase compared to what we've been seeing in the past.
Correct. Remember, the first solar projects we put in were extremely at a low rate, about, you know, $1,300/kW. Those first two projects we put in, about $1,300/kWh. The next ones are going up a little bit more, probably in the shorter term, probably 20%-30%. Gale, in the longer term, probably 30%-40%.
Battery pricing, as Scott said, has been a bit less predictable, and kinda all over the place. We'll see how the battery situation shakes out. I hope that gives you some sense of what we're seeing on the solar side.
Yeah. Super helpful. If I could just squeeze one more in, shifting over to the rate case, is there the precedent in Wisconsin for the limited rate reopener that you're asking for in 2024? Just trying to jog my memory a little bit there.
Yep, there's certainly ample precedent for a limited reopener. Absolutely.
Okay. That's great. Thanks again.
You're welcome, Michael. Take care.
Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Greetings, Durgesh. How are you today?
Hey. Good afternoon, Gale. Thank you for taking my question. Doing very well, thanks. Hey, I am unfortunately gonna ask you for your sort of thoughts and views as an industry leader on how this investigation actually goes. I mean, what are you hearing, and what do you think, you know, the Department of Commerce is headed here?
Oh, gosh. Well, you know, that and a dime won't get you much at Starbucks, but I'll be happy to give you my opinion. I do think that there's gonna be significant amount of pressure on the U.S. Department of Commerce. You're seeing it already. I think a letter went to the U.S. Department of Commerce either Friday or today, signed by 26 senators, basically saying, "Look, U.S. Department of Commerce, this is really messing up the industry in the U.S., so please get on with the investigation. Try not to take nine months." My sense is there, you know, that the U.S. Department of Commerce will be thorough. It's their duty to be thorough.
My sense is, given the real need, I mean, you know, 85% or more of the solar panels, utility scale solar panels, that are produced are coming from outside the United States. That just gives you a sense of the magnitude of the issue, and the potential impact of the delay. My sense is the Department of Commerce will probably. They have a duty to be thorough, but I'm guessing that they might speed up the review process to the extent they can. We'll just have to see where they go. Could the industry stand more tariffs? Nobody would like it, but potentially that might be the case.
I think it is really unpredictable as to where the DOC will eventually go, but this is a very important energy security issue for the United States. My sense is there will be a balanced decision. I think you could also see if worse comes to worse, you could also see some executive action out of the White House. Too early to give you anything more definitive than that, other than I think there will be a continued drumbeat to conclude one way or another this investigation thoroughly, but as soon as possible. Durgesh, I hope that helps.
That helps tremendously. Thanks, Gale. Just one quick clarification, the 30%-40% increase that you just mentioned, I think in response to an earlier question, that is before any additional tariffs are put in place. Am I correct about that? What could be the implications of additional tariffs if you can answer that question, or maybe it's too early?
I think for the second part of the question, it's probably too early, Durgesh, but the short answer is yes. The 30%-40% we were quoting is before any impact of the U.S. Department of Commerce investigation.
Understood. Thanks, Gale. Appreciate the time.
You're welcome. You take care.
Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.
Hello, Jeremy.
Hi. Good afternoon. Well wishes to Beth, and thank you for having me.
No, you're more than welcome.
Just wanted to start off, I guess, you know, we've talked a lot about the potential solar delays here, as you noted. Maybe just wondering if we could dig in a little bit more about reserve margins in your service territory and the outlook there. You know, as you've noted, demand continues to grow. There's coal retirements. You know, there could be delays with the solar and batteries being delayed. Just wondering, I guess, how you think about, you know, reserve and risk.
Well, it's a great question, and you probably saw the information released by MISO just a few days ago about concern about this coming summer even in terms of potential capacity shortfalls, particularly if there's a warmer than normal summer. As Scott mentioned in his remarks, obviously, and we continually do this, but obviously we have to relook at our capacity situation. We have retirements on tap, you know, in as part of this five-year plan. Nothing definitive yet, but we will certainly have to relook our capacity situation. I think in Wisconsin, certainly for this summer, I think we're in reasonably good shape. Actually, Scott and Shar and I were talking about this earlier.
The fact that MISO is signaling a potential concern, but a real concern about reliability and potential outages in a hot summer in the Midwest, it kind of doesn't surprise us because of what we've been seeing. You may have heard me say over the last few years, couple of years in particular, that even on moderate temperature days in Wisconsin, we were being asked by MISO to run our units at full capacity for lengthy periods of time to help keep energy in balance to meet demand in the MISO market. We kind of saw this potential shortfall coming, and we'll see how it goes. Again, I think for Wisconsin, we're in reasonably good shape.
I'm guessing we'll be producing a lot of energy that will be fed into the grid to help keep things stable this summer, which is a good thing for us, obviously. In the longer term here, we have to see the length of the delays, any issues with battery production and delivery, and as Scott said, we will continually relook at our capacity situation. I hope that helps, Jeremy.
Got it. Yeah, that is helpful there. Then maybe just pivoting towards sales a little bit here. As it relates to retail electric sales growth, could you provide more color, I guess, on the drivers between the delta with your initial expectations versus what was achieved in the quarter? Do you see retail growth projections higher at this point? Just wondering if you could provide a bit more color there on how your outlook might have changed as it relates to those sales.
Well, I think I'm gonna let Scott and Shar give you some more detail. From my standpoint, the longer term outlook is unchanged. I mean, you really can't move your expectations based on one quarter, particularly a quarter where it was colder than normal. You know, weather normalization is an art, not a science. You know, we give our best estimate of what's weather normal and what's not. I think at least, Scott, from my opinion, the backdrop and strength of the manufacturing sectors in Wisconsin is a big driver for us.
No, you're exactly right. Two items, really, when I look at the data, you see that large manufacturing in the in our sector or in our company, we track about 17 sectors. A couple were in the manufacturing. We're seeing that as being very positive. In addition, this quarter, although it is just one quarter, that small commercial industrial was ahead of our forecast. Just businesses getting back open, even opening more than we anticipated with the pandemic, et cetera. They've been growing pretty well here. Really happy to see that small commercial going, and the large industrial was positive, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Overall, very happy with where the sales are coming in.
I'll add one anecdotal thing. You know, we joke that our EV penetration doubled when Shar moved to become our CFO 'cause she brought her Tesla with her. I noticed yesterday, I thought this was amazing, and we have nothing in our forecast for any significant EV penetration in that five-year plan. In the large condo building where Judy and I live north of downtown Milwaukee, there are basically 99 units. Seven of those units now have EVs. That really surprised me. I just happened to pass through our underground garage yesterday, and there's seven Teslas with charging units in our own condo building. I think if anything, you know, we may be conservative about the EV penetration.
We're also getting a lot of interest in our EV pilot. That really started beginning of this year. That pilot went in place. We're seeing a lot of good people, a lot of good inquiries on commercial side, which we expect that some nice load coming potentially here, and then also on the residential side. Just early yet, but a good indication. The challenge is now everyone's got to get the vehicle.
That's right. Thank you for all the color. That's really helpful. I'll leave it there.
Terrific. Thank you, Jeremy.
Your next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Hey, good morning, Gale.
Good afternoon.
Good afternoon. Sorry.
Good morning. Yeah, time flies when you're having fun.
Yes, good luck in Boston tomorrow night. I'm a Yankee fan, so anytime a Boston team loses, I am so happy.
There you go.
Just maybe two quick questions. One of them, obviously, a lot of the cost delays on the solar. Talked about rising costs on, you know, some renewable projects before any impact of U.S. Department of Commerce investigation. I think the company's plan over the years has been more of a diversified portfolio, and it's benefited a lot of the customers. Do you see any change from the regulators on the headwinds that are going on right now with renewables to maybe change your strategy that's going forward and maybe keep going for this diversified generation portfolio?
Well, it's a great question, and I think actually, you know, we have ongoing conversations, obviously, with policymakers, particularly in Wisconsin. I can tell you that there has been and continues to be both strong support for decarbonization, and as you know, we have some of the most aggressive decarbonization goals in the industry, but also a strong support for energy security. I mean, we talk with the governor's office, we talk when we can with, you know, commissioners. We talk with, you know, the state, the Department of Natural Resources, which is the state EPA. To a person with all past gubernatorial administrations since I've been here and with the current one, there is a strong support to do both. Yes, decarbonize, but do not take your eye off the ball.
We have to have energy security. That hasn't changed, and I don't think it's going to. 'Cause I think, you know, in Wisconsin, we're pretty practical and I believe that over time, we can do both. We can decarbonize the economy, we can still provide a, you know, reliable power, but we can also, you know, we also have to do that with a variety of energy sources. And as you've heard me say, we look at everything through what I call the ARC, A-R-C, affordable, reliable, clean. It's got to be all three. There is going to be a transition, and natural gas is going to be a significant part of that transition in terms of power generation.
I mean, you just cannot keep a major economy alive and trucking without, you know, without the range of options that we have in our portfolio today.
Great. Last one, I apologize if I had this wrong, and maybe it's all you guys being, I guess, too customer-focused, if there's such a thing. I believe you filed for the same ROE request in this rate filing as you currently have. I've seen other utilities across the country file rate cases maybe the last month, two months, given this inflationary environment, they've all had a significant step up in what they're requesting for ROE. Just thoughts on the level of ROE that you guys have filed for.
Well, we think that level of ROE is appropriate. It reflects our cost of capital, and with basically our planning, you know, with that level of ROE, again, with the opportunity to earn above the allowed ROE and the sharing mechanism that provides, you know, benefit to both customers and shareholders. We just think it's an appropriate approach at this point in time and would provide us the cash flows to maintain strong credit ratings. When we look at the overall situation, we think it's the right level for us.
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Again, hope you beat up the Celtics pretty good.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Hey, guys.
How you doing, Michael?
I'm great, Gale. While obviously you've got your bias with the Bucks, I'm always gonna lead with the Go Griz. A couple of questions for you. One on the rate proposal. If I read this right, the electric side has fuel cost embedded in it, so the gas side, can you just remind me what's happening to the customer, the total customer bill these days, not just the base rate component of the bill? I'm just trying to think about what's going on in Wisconsin relative to some of the neighboring states to the total bill.
Scott, Xia, you want to give that a shot?
Yeah. The numbers that we did provide on the call, the $5-$6 a month is the total bill. It'll still be below the national average and right in line with our Midwest peers. As it relates, this does include fuel at the time when we put the case together. But just like every year, we'll file for a fuel update, and the commission has a process of updating it with the latest forecast on gas, prices, etc., in the fall of each year. That's an ongoing every year we go in for that. It's really right now, it's a very modest number at that $5 or $6. That may change a little bit when you look at that final fuel.
That even makes the case even better for renewables as we put more renewables in and have that, you know, fuel-free resource there.
Got it.
Xia, what would you like to add?
No, I think Scott really covered it. Overall, we look at our rates request and compared to the peers in the Midwest and compared to the national average, we feel really good about the overall customer impact.
Got it.
As Scott said, the $5-$6 a month for a typical residential customer at this stage of the game does include an estimate of fuel.
Got it. Okay, that's super helpful. The other question I had is when y'all were entering the year, I know somebody asked about electricity demand, and I know there's some, Gale, you and I have talked about at length over the years. Just curious, when y'all entered the year, what was your guidance for weather normal gas demand growth? Because it seems that and one quarter doesn't make a long-term trend, but it seems that gas demand growth again is kind of surprising in the upside again.
Yeah.
Yeah. I think going in, Scott, was it 0.3%?
0.5%.
0.5%.
0.5%. Remember, we all discussed this, where the normalization in a first quarter when it's colder than normal is not the best indication. On the other hand, gas sales have been very strong. I mean, we see several customers still converting from oil, fuel oil to natural gas, and actually commercial customers last year converted from coal to natural gas, getting cleaner and yet the usage is up. I do think, though, as you get into the fall, gas usage. As you know, when you think about gas costs, what you're seeing in the paper every day, people may be putting in some more insulation and looking for conservation a little bit more this year. We'll see.
We're always wanna be looking at that gas growth in line with customer growth, and surprised on the upside with usage.
Yeah. Scott's making a great point, but I will say we continue to see good customer growth on the gas distribution side of our business, as Scott said. It really is a mixture of things. I mean, my gosh, some people have 40-year-old oil-burning furnaces. They're not putting oil-burning furnaces in today. They're converting to natural gas. As Scott said, we have customers, industrial customers, that are actually getting cleaner by switching off of their own generation and moving on to our gas distribution network. We see both usage growth, but also strong customer growth. In fact, in most months of last year, our gas customer growth exceeded our electric customer growth.
Got it. Super helpful. Hey, one last one. Just curious, what do you think the earnings growth, kind of annualized multi-year, is for ATC? Meaning for the transmission business.
In looking at that in the five-year plan, it's probably roughly 4%-5% a year.
Yeah, that's about right.
Got it. Okay.
Yeah.
Kind of in line with rate-based growth.
Yeah, exactly. Except we don't have anything in there for Tranche 1 of Future 1. You know what I'm referring to.
Sure.
MISO's going through a long planning process which they call Future 1, and Future 1 has three tranches. There's Tranche 1, which is now kind of creeping toward resolution, if you will. I think MISO has said they would vote on the projects in Tranche 1 in late July, if I remember correctly. We don't really have anything in there in our five-year plan, Scott, for Tranche 1.
No. We don't have anything in our five-year plan, but when you think about it, those projects probably won't start hitting till the end of the decade. I mean, there's talk about the transmission, and we'll see more about it in July. Once again, it probably won't hit this year's five-year plan, maybe the next. The last couple years from ATC, we've actually seen some growth just from the renewables that are happening in the system in Wisconsin here alone.
from upgrading aging transmission lines. Just wanted to be clear, when we said 4%-5% asset-based growth coming out of ATC, it doesn't assume anything about Future 1.
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated. Super helpful.
Thank you, Michael.
For the last question, we have Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Greetings, Paul. How are you today?
Greetings. I'm okay.
Now, wait, whoa. Not wonderful and award-winning as usual? You having a bad day, Paul?
Not a particularly bad day, just an average day.
Okay.
Which is, you know, it's what it is, you know. Beggars can't be choosers.
Yeah, well.
But, um-
I thought our call would brighten your day. I don't know, Paul.
Well, you know, it is in its own way. It's always sunny in Wisconsin, I guess.
There you go.
Actually, my transmission question was asked just now, but there is this proceeding regarding the roadmap to zero investigation that's been looking at, of all things, PBR, performance-based regulation, and affordability and energy efficiency and stuff. I'm just wondering, you know, since I've got you, I mean, it looks to me like they put out an order a few weeks ago sort of saying that they're still sort of interested in it and they're exploring it, but do you have any thoughts about where this might lead?
I think there's a very, very deliberate process that has just begun at the Wisconsin Commission to investigate whether there are any other regulatory incentives or any other changes that could help to continue to incentivize the right kind of decarbonization. Again, without compromising energy security. You know, we see this as, you know, as always with Wisconsin regulation, forward-looking, farsighted, balanced. I do think they're in the very earliest stages of considering any potential alternatives. I wouldn't see anything, for example, that would impact our current rate case.
Okay. Okay, fair enough. We'll see what happens. I really appreciate it and thanks so much.
You're welcome. Take care. All right. Well, folks, I think that concludes our conference call for today. Thanks so much for participating. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact Beth. She won't be on mute. 414-221-4639. Thanks, everybody. Take care.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.