Morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'm Joe Altobello, Leisure Equity Research Analyst here at Raymond James, and I'm very pleased to introduce Winnebago Industries. With us today, we have Mr. Brian Hughes, Chief Financial Officer. Welcome, Brian.
Thank you.
Winnebago is a leader in the outdoor recreation space across RVs and power boats, with a portfolio of brands that includes Winnebago, Grand Design, Newmar, Barletta, and Chris-Craft. I feel like every year I add this caveat, but I want to do it again. I do want to thank Brian for attending our conference, even though we're only a couple of weeks out from the release of fiscal second quarter results. For that reason, I'll try to keep my questions fairly high level when we do go into Q&A. With that in mind, I believe Brian has a few introductory slides he'd like to go over, after which we'll shift into a fireside chat. With that, Brian.
Yeah, good morning, everyone. Hopefully we'll have time for questions as well from the audience. I'm sure we'll have some good questions from Joe here, but I want to keep some time for the rest of you too. Thanks for joining us early in the morning here. Appreciate your attendance in a full room. We do have, as Joe said, our release coming up here shortly. Trying to advance the slide here. Any tips for how to do that? There we go. I'll just try hitting the arrow there. We are in a blackout period. As Joe indicated, we closed our quarter on this past Saturday. I will limit my comments accordingly. Our earnings release comes up here at the end of March. Appreciate you following us in the meantime.
Starting with an overview, I know we have some varied level of knowledge of our industry, of our company. I wanted to start with an overview of who we are. We are just shy of a $3 billion company. On the top line, we have about 5,500 employees across our brands. You can see the lower left there a comparison to fiscal 2016. That really anchors with our change in our leadership. We had an outside CEO come to the company for the first time in the company's history. They started in 2016, and we've had a great transformation story since that time. He brought me on as CFO about a year into his tenure. I am going on eight years as the CFO of the company. We are a wide range of products serving the RV and the marine industry.
You can see that in the middle of a full range of products in the RV space. In the marine space, we have our Barletta brand, which is a new pontoon brand that has performed very well in the industry. It is already number three in market share. We have the legacy Chris-Craft brand, which is over a 150-year-old brand now. That is also a small part of our overall portfolio. We also have recently acquired a battery company that replaces generators effectively. We have identified that as a long-term trend where people no longer will want generators on their RVs or boats for purposes of, you know, a nuisance that generators provide with noise, as well as safety. That is an acquisition we made related to house power a couple of years ago now. Our locations are shown on the right.
We are headquartered in the Minneapolis area. Our legacy Winnebago Motor Home brand is in Northern Iowa. We have several businesses: Grand Design, Newmar, Barletta, and Winnebago Towables in the Elkhart, Indiana area. Our Chris-Craft and Lithionics brands are down in Sarasota and Clearwater, Florida, respectively. Our enterprise strategies are as shown here. Starting with talent, our goal is to hire and position the best talent in the industry to build premium brands with differentiated and winning products to elevate the customer experience both pre-purchase and through the post-purchase cycle and give an elevated experience to that customer. We are expanding our digital capabilities. You'll hear us talk about the investments we're making there to serve the customer through service as well as with the product itself.
Lastly, to drive portfolio excellence with our unique operating model and the collaboration across our brands and also the building of centers of excellence that then serve those brands collectively. Those are our enterprise strategies. The RV industry has seen, as I'm sure many of you have been tracking, a very interesting history. What I show here is three years pre-COVID: 2017, 2018, and 2019. The onset of COVID in 2020 and the post-COVID outdoor trends of 2021 and 2022, where you see the spikes in the industry. The most recent couple of years, 2023 and 2024, have shown the coming off of the peak of COVID. A few interesting takeaways here. First, we're going to start with the light blue bars, which are the retail performance of the industry.
Pre-COVID, you can see 2017, 2018, 2019 in the $465,000 to $495,000 range each of those years pre-COVID. COVID hit, and you started to see the spike starting in 2020, where everybody rushed to the outdoors. Everybody wanted an RV, boat, bicycle, new set of golf clubs, et cetera. Anything on the outdoors went pretty crazy there in those couple of years where things were locked down in 2020 and 2021, where retail spiked to 574,000 units. In 2022, you started to see this shift where things opened back up across the world, right? People could once again do airfare travel. They could once again stay at a hotel. They could go to sporting events again, you know, after being locked out a couple of years, concerts, other entertainment venues.
You started to see this shift of the consumer towards those things that they could not do for a couple of years. That is what we have seen now in 2023 and 2024 as people have returned to those things, or perhaps the pendulum has swung in that direction. What we are starting to see here now in 2025 is a stabilization, okay, after coming down for three years straight in retail. We are seeing a stabilization in the last three months of SSI data, which is the industry tracking retail. We have seen stabilization in October, November, December, where we are roughly flat as an industry year- over -year. Most in the industry are calling for flat retail sales, roughly in that $350,000- $360,000 range, with more of a return to a one-for-one relationship between retail and wholesale.
If you look at the chart, the other takeaway here is the destocking that occurred in the last couple of years, most notably 2023. If you compare the wholesale shipment, which is the dark blue bar, to the retail bar, you see a destocking in our dealer network that took place in 2023. It repeated again in 2024. Most are calling for a one-for-one relationship between retail and wholesale in 2025 in that $350,000 unit range. At that $350,000 unit range, you can see compared to 2024 at $330,000, roughly, we should experience, wholesale shipment growth, mid-single digit is what a lot of people are calling for there.
Several takeaways from this chart, most notably the pretty significant impact that COVID brought to the industry, both in the form of a peak and then this coming off of the peak and the shift towards those activities that people could not do for a couple of years. We believe that there is latent demand from the repurchase cycle of our consumer base. We think that that was postponed during these couple of years and that there is a latent demand on that repurchase cycle, which is every three to five years for those people that are in the RV lifestyle. It is estimated that every three to five years there is a change in floor plan or an upgrade of some form. That is the current state of the industry at a very high level, but hopefully that gives you the long-term view that we see.
That pre-COVID range of $460-$490, we anchored our mid-cycle to that pre-COVID range and calling for a mid-cycle of $425-$450. You will see that in our long-term targets that we brought forward last year is a mid-cycle of $425-$450, which we feel is realistic, if not a little bit conservative even, from a mid-cycle perspective. We are a very different company today than we were in 2016 when we were largely just a Winnebago Motor Home company, single brand addressing just the motor home. You can see the diversification that has occurred over time with the acquisitions we have executed in the space of the towables as well as in marine. That diversification plays out in this chart, both in the sales as well as in the adjusted EBITDA.
Now, towables and marine and motor home, we don't mean to convey that they're not cyclical. They're all cyclical industries. They tend to have those three segments tend to have different timing, different shapes of a cycle. There is a bit of a diversification play as it relates to the cycle as well. If you look at our long-term performance, again, I'm showing anchoring to 2016 here. You see the transformation that has occurred under new leadership, both related to revenue as well as profitability and cash flow, very strong performance over this time period. We're in trough right now on those most recent 2023, 2024, and we're showing the rolling 12 or trailing four quarter here also on the far right in the dark bar. Very strong performance reflecting that transformation that has occurred.
Our recent highlights and things that we're excited about are shown in this chart, starting with Grand Design RV Motor Home and the entry by this very strong brand into the motor home segment. We have quantified that for our current fiscal year at a $100 million plus top line opportunity. That introduction has gone extremely well. We are seeing great excitement from the dealer base as well as the end customer. Barletta is another bright spot. Barletta is already the number three pontoon brand in their early life. They are on a market share take trend right now in excess of 10%. We have rounded out the product line in Barletta. They now have a full line and address each of the price points with their introduction of the Aria brand into their lineup.
That allows us to go to a dealer and pursue exclusive relationships with the dealer base as it relates to the pontoon segment. We're having good success with those conversations, all of which should serve further market share trends in a positive direction going forward. We've recently announced new management of the Winnebago Towables business. Winnebago continues to be the number one brand in the RV industry. On the towable side, it has just 1% market share, roughly. I think it's 1.2% market share. We think that that brand has a lot of potential to it. Under new leadership, we believe that that should be 3% in the near term and 5% in the longer term. We very much are excited to have two brands in the towable space, both Grand Design and we think this Winnebago brand has great opportunity as well.
We've introduced, and on the right side of the chart, new products that address this trend towards affordability. We have seen this trend. You'll see it in the mix in the industry as well. There's been a trend towards a more affordable product mix. We are a premium branded product portfolio. Our focus is maintaining that premium brand, maintaining elevated margins relative to competition, but we also need to address this trend towards affordability. We have done that by introducing new sub-brands into each of our primary brands, Grand Design and Winnebago on the RV side, as well as in Barletta and even Chris-Craft on the marine side.
It is a balance of maintaining premium brands for the long term, but also addressing this trend towards affordability given the cumulative inflationary pressures that our consumer base has faced throughout the 2021, 2022 time period. Those are some of the things that we're excited about, and we feel confident with the new brands that we've introduced. We also feel confident in the marketplace for the long term, the RV lifestyle, the marine lifestyle. Just a couple of comments on that topic. Interest remains high. We do a lot of surveying across our customer base. We also see surveys done by Kampgrounds of America and other outfits.
One of the things that comes through in those surveys is that interest remains very high in the lifestyle. We see the household penetration, the second point there, 97% increase in RV ownership over the past decade. The penetration into U.S. households continues to increase. Those people that do own RVs remain very interested in the space, and the surveys indicate a tendency to use their RVs more in the coming year versus less, and the stickiness of the lifestyle is alive and well. Lastly, the demographics of our consumer base continues to improve. The average age continues to come down.
The diversification, the racial and ethnic backgrounds of buyers continues to diversify, all of which serves the industry well in the long term. Similarly, on the boating side, a lot of the similar stories or trends are showing themselves in terms of boat ownership, interest in the boating lifestyle, and just general high engagement across the marine segment. We've got a well-capitalized balance sheet. Shifting now to capital allocation, you can see the performance over time.
First of all, we continue to invest in the core or in the organic growth of our business. We know that we have long-term opportunity here. The chart in the upper left just shows our CapEx. We remain interested in acquiring over time. There is a period that we want to settle our balance sheet here. We have been less active on the M&A side for a couple of years now while we go through trough. There has been a lot of price dislocation in our market, as you can imagine, as we go through the cycle that we have gone through.
Hard to find buyers and selling and agreeing on value. I suspect as we see the trough and see things leveling off, we will find buyers and sellers more like-minded as it relates to price, leading to some opportunities here in the coming year. On the lower left, you can see our leverage and how we have managed that over time. We have a targeted leverage ratio on a net basis of 0.9-1.5. We think that that's a prudent amount of leverage to maintain over time, given the cyclical nature of the business.
We have talked about willing to spike that to 3.0 for the right acquisition at the right time. We have managed it very well through the acquisitive history that you see here. Right now, we're at a 3.0 as we manage through the trough. We continue to manage that very carefully through the cycle. We recently completed a tender offer. You'll see that if you look at our press releases. Within the last couple of weeks, we finalized that tender offer for $100 million.
We also have another $59 million of debt coming due here in early April, which is the stub of our convertible that matures in April of 2025. We will settle that as well in cash and continue to manage our balance sheet very prudently as we go through the cycle. Lower right-hand corner, you can see we have also been very diligent in using share repurchase as a mechanism for returning cash to shareholders as well. Not shown here is the dividend. We have got a great track record of increasing our dividend. We had two years in a row of 50% increases in the dividend, followed by a 15%, and then most recently by another 10% increase in the fall of 2024. We are also using dividends as a mechanism to return cash to shareholders.
Our approach to tariffs, I'm sure that's a question that a lot of you have, you know, is a very detailed and diligent approach with our vendors. We do not purchase commodities or direct exposure to the tariffs, but we know that our suppliers do. We are working very closely with our suppliers and identifying for each component we buy from them and engaging with them at a detailed level across their bill of materials. For each of the tariffs that have been proposed, to understand with our vendors which components are truly exposed to those tariffs.
If they may come to us at some point in time to say, "Hey, look, we need a 5% increase for component X, Y, Z." What we are doing is saying, "Okay, pull out that component's bill of materials, show us where your exposure is for each of the items, and then work together with them to mitigate across those exposures." All the time, we're also looking for alternative suppliers that may not have the same exposure to the tariffs that our current suppliers have. It is a multi-layer approach that we take with our vendors. Ultimately, we expect to mitigate a large portion of those tariffs and to the extent that we remain exposed to go to our customer base with a price increase. That is our current approach to tariffs.
As you can imagine, with the changing landscape and the dynamic landscape that is being presented in this area, it's a little bit tough to quantify. We will make an effort to do so, assuming that we've got some stability in the rhetoric. We will make an effort to quantify and box this range in a bit for our investor community at our earnings release coming up at the end of March. That will be our intent and our goal. We'll see if we're able to do that given the rhetoric that comes forth from the administration. I just wanted to share with you what our process is and how we think about it. This is my closing slide, and then I'll call Joe up to engage with some Q&A.
This is who Winnebago Industries is and how we would encourage you to think about an investment in our company. First, we are a premium portfolio of brands demanding elevated margins relative to the rest of the industry. We have an operating model that encourages centers of excellence from corporate that can be leveraged then by the business units. That is a unique operating model across our industry. Our brands collaborate with each other, position with each other so that there is not overlap, and then assist each other with the development of new products. We've got a robust technology engine now in the form of our Advanced Technology Group. It's one of those centers of excellence that we have stood up over the past few years that looks 5, 10 years out at those technologies that can be contributing to our differentiated products.
We have an operating model that has a highly variable cost structure. We have about 85% variable, 15% fixed. That allows us to navigate these peaks and troughs and still generate cash during times of trough. I reviewed our strong balance sheet and how we have managed that very prudently over time, even with the M&A that we have pursued. Lastly, a proven management team. You can see the results since our new CEO came on and the transformation journey we have had and how that translates into excellent financial performance. That is our story. With that, I would invite Joe to come on up and we can engage in some Q&A. Great.
Thank you. Thank you, Brian. That was great.
You have talked about your outlook for 2025 a few times, and I think you have called it a tale of two halves, really, with the first half a little bit more challenged than the second half. I guess a couple of questions there. First, is that still your thinking? And second, what do you think gets better in the second half after, as you pointed out, three years of a pretty tough slog? Yeah, that is still our thinking. You know, and a big part of that first half, second half is just the natural seasonality of the business, right, Joe? That our industry really starts a selling season here in March, April, with March being the first month of our third quarter. And so, yeah, you will see that in the estimates that we have provided, the ranges we have provided and introduced for the first time, right?
The guidance is heavily weighted to the back half, but that really coincides with the selling season. The first half still influenced by some destocking, right? There is still some destocking that has occurred. Typically, in those winter months, it is the period where wholesale exceeds retail by quite a bit, and there is a stocking up ahead of the selling season. I think that has been very muted this year, just considering where dealers are and all of their efforts to manage their inventory, manage their cash flow. You know, we saw that during the winter months here as a muted wholesale shipment relative to what it would typically be. The second half should be free of that for the most part. You know, I think, as I mentioned earlier, the towables inventory is in a very good spot.
I think the motorized inventory probably has another couple of months to shake loose. We're still seeing dealers hesitant to place orders, take product on the motorized side as they look to manage their inventory and their cash flow. Lastly, marine. You know, I think everybody understands marine to be further behind in destocking and getting inventory levels to a place where they're comfortable. That too should alleviate as we enter the selling season here. The back half is very much a seasonal story as well as a condition of dealer inventory. Which is where I wanted to go next. On the RV side, you've characterized your inventory as healthy. I think your turns are right around two times at this point. It's a little below where it has been historically. Where do you see those turns levels going?
Do you expect them to go higher over time? I think that will be the dealers' push, is to continue to minimize inventory. You know, with the higher interest rates that we're seeing today versus five years ago, I think dealers will continue to push for minimized inventory and a higher turns level. I think if we're at two now, you know, retail will start to show some stability, and that will help. I think part of the dealer network's challenge right now is just not having a firm footing on where retail will be going forward. That has caused some of the anxiety by dealers as well. Starting to see some footing and some stabilization in retail is the first step to allow dealers to think differently about what levels of inventory to carry. I see that part of it improving.
Overall, I do think dealers will continue to push for better turns than they have seen historically. I think that that will be the prevailing trend. Okay. Your market share has eroded a little bit over the last, call it, year or so. Can you talk about what's driving? How much of that is just this makeshift that's going on? How much of that is maybe an aggressive promotional environment in the RV space? Yeah, I think it's both. You know, we saw our pre-COVID, we saw a nice trend in market share. When COVID hit, that was the first impact to our market share as we ran into our capacity and our ceiling, and the excess demand that we saw in the industry was filled by tier two, tier three players that had more capacity available. That really muted our market share and stopped our favorable trend.
What we've seen as the market has come down is this shift towards affordability with the cumulative inflation. Our premium brand portfolio, we knew, was compromised in that environment. As I mentioned earlier during my presentation, we have come forward with new brands that position us more towards that affordability. We're still premium within those new price points. There has been this makeshift downwards, and that's all part of this cycle, part of this trough that we're navigating through right now.
We like how we're positioned now. We have a good product lineup that can compete in that type of environment. We'll never compete at the very bottom. That's just not who we are, not how we're positioned, nor how we want to be positioned. We do have confidence in that positioning as we go into the long term and know that our premium portfolio will perform well. Got it. I think we might have time for one more question on M&A. You touched on it a little bit. Obviously, it sounds like the focus right now is the balance sheet and getting that leverage ratio down a little bit. Once you get back into the M&A mode, if you will, what might that look like? Is it RV? Is it marine? Is it something else outside of those two areas?
We're open to all three, okay? To be clear, the RV industry in the U.S. is concentrated, right? There's not a lot of businesses in play there. There are some that might target on an emerging or growth segment that are performing really well, that have good management teams and in the process of going from good to great. We would entertain those in the RV space. We've also talked about RV from a global perspective. You know, are there opportunities to do M&A outside the U.S.? I think that that is an opportunity. What has to show itself, though, is that they are synergistic with our portfolio.
We're not going to just diversify geographically without synergies attached to it. I think marine is a better option for us or a better opportunity. It's a more fragmented industry by ownership. There will be more companies in play in marine. Certainly those other adjacencies, as we've talked about in the outdoor arena, we would entertain as well. Again, they have to be synergistic.
It's not we're not just going to pursue diversification for diversification's sake. It's going to be a synergistic place.
Great. Thank you, Brian. Thank you, everybody. Enjoy the rest of your.