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Stifel 2024 Cross Sector Insight Conference

Jun 5, 2024

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So this is Michael Hoffman. I'm Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, cover the environmental services space. It's my pleasure to have Waste Management on stage with us, and from my right all the way across the stage, we have Jim Fish, who's the Chief Executive Officer, Devina Rankin, who's the Chief Financial Officer, and Rafa Carrasco, who is the SVP of Strategy. In the back of the room is Ed Egl, who's Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, so all the tough questions go to him. These are all the layup questions up here.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yeah, exactly.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So I have a couple housekeeping questions I'd like to get out of the way, just so we check these boxes around this. Did everybody actually see the news on Monday? They did a little deal. HSR filing, has it been done?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

10 days.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

In 10 days.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

The process from sign to when we'll do the filing is about a 10-day period.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay, so when that hits, say it's at the end of the 10 days, when people look out on a calendar, you know, typically, either if DOJ is swamped, they'll come back and say, "Pull it, refile it," 'cause they don't want to trigger weird things. When's that date of either they pull it or they ask for a second request, how far out are we looking at? What's that date look like?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

We're not specifically looking at that date because things are uncertain in that regard. What we're thinking about is that if there's no second request, that you could see close somewhere in the ballpark of 4-5 months.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

If there's a second request, it'll take longer.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. Okay. But we're somewhere in the summer. Is either they tell you to pull it, refile it, 'cause they're busy and they can't get to it. It's-

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Or we're, we'll hear something maybe even before the second quarter reporting on that, right? From that.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yeah, I think we can anticipate that. We'll definitely keep everyone posted.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay. Where would this reside inside your segment structure?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

You know, I would say the regulated waste piece is easy because it'll be its own segment. The secure information destruction piece of the business, figuring out how that gets parsed, part of it recycling, part of it, kind of our other category, we have yet to determine, but that'll probably be the most likely.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So it's not going into the sustainability segment, for instance, this would be a standalone. You'd have a standalone reporting segment.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

That's right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay. I assume you had a meeting with the credit agencies and got them all calm and collected on the, you know, leverage is going here, here's the path to get it down.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Our treasurer met with them over the last couple of days. We didn't get pre-clearance on this because we view it based on the size of the company to be a large tuck-in type deal for us, albeit a different space, you know, an adjacency, something that we do and know pretty well. And so we gave them a pathway to returning to our target leverage of 2.75-3, and we think that that looks like about 18 months post-close.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

And so all of their releases are out, and only, you know, slight negative outlook for the transition period.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Is what we're talking about. No fundamental change in rating.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

But they're not putting you on a watch list or anything like that. They're just going, "We're aware of it," blah, blah, blah.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

There's S&P, I think, gave a negative watch.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

And Moody's retained, but what I would say is still the strongest ratings in the industry.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Got it. Okay, and then last one, on the synergies, my perception, people have said, "How are they possibly going to get this?" I said, "This isn't actually that hard, I think." There's duplicate public company costs, $60 million. There's two IT systems in Stericycle at the moment that you would get the benefit of closing one of them. That's $25 million-$30 million. And then you're the champion of lean SG&A, you, Devina Rankin, is. And therefore, picking up $45 million off of the base of their $400 million of SG&A is not that hard.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yeah, so you've outlined the good pieces. I would say that we were less focused on duplicate IT systems in the short term with this synergy target for us. It's more about our expectations for internalization. That's the third level, lever. So I would take out the duplicate IT and replace it with some internalization benefits we expect on the disposal side of the business.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

All right, and I'll get to that in a moment, but there is a duplicate IT, so theoretically, you would accrue that benefit.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

In time, in the diligence processes, what we learned is, you know, Cindy, Janet, and team have done a great job in this ERP journey, and they've done a whole lot of hard work in a five-year period, but there's still some work that needs to be done. And so I think it would be premature to be able to predict how much of the duplicate system we could take out, and we'd rather see where we should be making incremental investments in IT in order to stabilize the environment across now the broad organization.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

So why don't I talk a little bit about... because I feel like there's going to be some overlap in synergies. So your next question, I think I'm going to probably touch on that piece. that she's touching on. But, why don't we, because I think there's going to be a lot of interest in what the strategic.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Great. Well, that was going to be in the next piece.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

No, I'm gonna direct the,

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah. Yeah. No, I know. You walked up to me at Waste Expo, and you said: "Can we throw these questions out and start all over?" So I had to basically wing it.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, so I think. Let me kind of say this about the strategic perspective of this deal.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

First of all, we've been interested in this, Michael, since probably a decade ago. But a decade ago, it was about the company-type deal.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I mean, $13 billion was, I think, their market cap, ours was $18 billion.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Today, when we looked at it, it's basically the size of one of our biggest geographic areas. We have 16 geographic areas. And we look at it as a collection and disposal business. That's what it is at its core. It's a collection and disposal business.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Don't dispute that.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

They collect material, we collect material. They dispose of material, we dispose of material.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

They dispatch a truck in the morning, we dispatch trucks in the morning. When we looked at what we are really good at, we're really good at collection and disposal. You mentioned that Devina is really good at running a big business in a lean way. We looked at their operations and said, "Okay, their operating cost as a percent of revenue," and again, not a hugely dissimilar business here, is 64-ish%. Ours is now 60%, and you've heard us talk about it for the last couple of quarters. John Morris really doing a great job of squeezing efficiencies out. We spent $300 million on technology, working on how do we become more efficient, and so it's all been a routing and logistics exercise. They have a huge routing and logistics network, 5,200 routes, I think.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

At the same time, their SG&A, when you look at their forecast for 2024, is 22%. Ours is approaching 9%.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

When you think about synergies, there's big, big opportunity for synergies there to bring what we do well, which is operations, efficiencies, routing and logistics, and then running the business in a lean manner at the SG&A line. So a lot of opportunity there. And then I look at the growth trajectory over a 10-year period. And the medical services business, and this is not us saying this, this is a third party saying this, is projected to grow at somewhere in the neighborhood of 5%-6%. That's the volume side of the medical services. Not a surprise to anybody in the room, the U.S. average American has aged 10 years in the last 40. We're getting older, and the replacement rate is, like, 1.7% or 1.7 right now. So we're not replacing, we're getting older.

If you were to ask me, "What business do I want to be in right now?" I want to be in a medical business of some kind because it's only getting bigger. Our business, by the way, solid waste, if I think about volume over the next decade, is gonna grow at probably 1%-2%.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

What % of your solid waste business services the healthcare industry?

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

What, what percent of our solid waste services the healthcare? It's, it's small. I mean, it's.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

My statement would be you're underrepresented.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Oh, I see what you. Yeah, yeah.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

You're underrepresented.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

I can give you a little color there.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

When we looked at the opportunity, we thought about it in terms of actually getting our presence in the medical solid waste space up to par with what we have as far as share in some of the other segments.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Right.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Like retail, like commercial property, and so forth. And, and we were, you know, maybe at a, a half of what, of, in the medical waste businesses, in the healthcare business, that we are in some of the, those other segments. So if we can just actually jump up halfway there, we can create a tremendous amount of, cross-selling synergy.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I think cross-selling is an important aspect of this because.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

This is a bundling conversation.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, look, I don't really like the word "bundling." I mean, I think cross-selling is a better-

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

But, you know, it's semantics, I guess. So, but I, I'll give you an example. I was in getting my annual physical a couple of weeks ago, and there's a Stericycle can at this doctor's office, and there's a gray solid waste can. It's not us. And so there are a number of large hospitals. By the way, Rafa can talk about the national account side of this, but there's a number of large hospitals where they are, and we're not. There's also some places where we are, and they aren't.

So there's certainly an opportunity there to cross-sell, but I think the trajectory was important to us. The fact that they are running a collection and disposal business, I don't know how many sites, for example, in Houston they have. We're building a brand-new hauling company that will have lots of extra capacity. There's no reason we couldn't run Stericycle's trucks out of that, out of that hauling company.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I mean, it's.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

In Stericycle's $1.5 billion domestic revenues, there's $200 million of it is the solid waste, recycling revenue, healthcare hazardous waste, and regulated medical waste.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Cross-sell. I'll acquiesce to the cross-sell.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

But that, to me, is the potential.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Then it's back to how many customers do you have that's a solid waste hospital? You know, it's more probably hospitals, 'cause the doctor's office is probably, unless it's standalone, it's an office building, and that's a different conversation.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, I think it's two handfuls of things. It certainly is cross-selling. That's an opportunity. It's taking operating costs down significantly. I mean, they're 400 basis points.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Which is, which is their story anyway. You bought into their story.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

That you had got this in a position.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I mean, SG&A, I mean, they're gonna spend, according to their projection for 2024, almost $600 million in SG&A.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

We're gonna spend $1.9 billion.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I mean, they're at 22, we're at 9. There's a huge opportunity there. We only put 300 basis points in the synergy projection.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

So the growth trajectory, the fact that their capital dependency is much lower than ours-

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

5%, 6%.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Yeah, 5%, we're 10%. Landfills are expensive. Similarly, on the maintenance and repair side, it is a lot more expensive to maintain a front loader with all the hydraulics on it, the complexity of it, than it is to maintain a box truck.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So they lease everything. I would think that's another synergy eventually, is as you get to, you own it. It's a slow process. You can't do it overnight, but-

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Exactly. There will be a timeline, it will be diligent, but at the end of the day, their balance sheet management was one of the things that played into that decision for them, and we have the opportunity, with the strength of our balance sheet, to use our own capital dollars more efficiently.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, the other thing, Michael, that I think, you know, Cindy and Janet have done a really nice job with over the last few years is, I mentioned that we've been interested in them for 10 years. Part of the problem was the size, but part of the problem was they had some things that we didn't want.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, they cleaned that all up.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

We didn't want Romania or Brazil or.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Argentina. Nothing wrong with those countries, but we didn't wanna, we didn't wanna operate there. And so they've cleaned that all up. I mean, when Cindy came in five years ago, she was charged with, in part doing that, and in part rolling out the ERP. And they're right at the finish line on the ERP, and Cindy's done a nice job of moving out a lot of the portfolio that they didn't-

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Michael, one element on the cross-selling before we depart too far afield from there is that we didn't mention explicitly, but it's an important thing for everybody to consider, is that what that'll allow is broadening our suite of services. Entering that space is going to allow us to provide obviously more services, but also from one service provider, one that is in our national accounts, for example, in strategic accounts, sustainability, and environmental services. We enjoy a very good reputation of actually providing not only the service itself, but sustainability services, how to reduce your waste. The platform in which we report is very well-regarded, and so there's a desire from the customer base to actually receive that.

I would point you to the fact that our strategic accounts business has grown at a CAGR of double digits over the last three years, and there's a lot of similarities between that and what a large hospital network, for example, is going to want to see.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah. Well, back to there's solid waste, there's health, recycling, there's healthcare, hazardous waste, there's the medical waste, and then you give them all kinds of documentation on, "What am I doing with all this?" So that they can stand up in front of a board of trustees and go, "Blah, blah, blah.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Yeah, exactly.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. And I, That, that to me is... I get the underlying strategy thing, so I do need—I want to pull back one second, 'cause this is you and you kind of thing. I think of the whiteboard room, wherever it is in Houston. This is my words, is there's, you know, a deployment of capital sort of conversation, and you're going, you know, above average returns. Whatever we're going to do, we want above average returns, sustainable returning, recurring growth at good IRRs, and you want to sustain a compounded, at a high quality, compounded free cash flow growth. That that's an, a high level driver of choices. A few years ago, you made choices about that and went accelerate MRF spending to capture those values. Accelerate the RNG spending for all the obvious reasons.

Have to ask the question: Are you, in fact, monetizing part of that?

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Monetizing part of RNG? What we've said ten times is, you know, it's, it's an option for us. I mean, we, you.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right now, the articles, I assume.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, sure, I've seen the articles. I would tell you this, you know, one of the articles had a $3 billion number in there for $500 million in EBITDA. I was kind of offended that they would think I would sell the business for $3 billion. So look, it's an option for us, but right now we're focused on building the 20 plants out. 80% of the CapEx will be spent- on those by the end of the year. We'll have five plants opening this year. One's already open, four more will open.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

So right now the focus is, let's build out these 20 plants. If somebody beat me over the head with a checkbook enough, you know, look, I would listen. But for now, we're focused on building out the plants. We think it's a great business.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

And so Michael, it's not an either/or there, right? It's.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

But you could own part of it. I mean, you sell piece, you take out some of your equity t hings like that. It's, that's the way to think about it.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Potentially. There's a whole slate of.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Probabilities and possibilities there. But what I'll say, too, is that it's not an either/or there. It's also not an either/or with respect to the growth of our solid waste business, right? I mean, we're committed to that. It's good business. We have a long runway to go in extracting cost there. All our investments on technology are beginning to see through. You can see what our forecasted margins for the year are and that's all a result of that. We're going to continue to grow, not only organically, but inorganically in the solid core waste.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, I think too, Michael, it's important for everybody to hear this. We're not changing what we're doing on the solid waste side or the sustainability.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

No, no, that's where I was gonna go with this.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

This acquisition isn't an either/or. It's an "and" basically. So we're still doing the RNG business. We're still investing in tuck-in acquisitions. So, we said, I think, $100-$200, and we'll still be there. So I mean, it doesn't change what we're doing. I think there was some concern that uh-oh, is this... Are you changing directions? This is adding a line of business, just like the industrial line of business or the commercial line of business, and now this is the medical waste line.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. That's where I was going with this, is so there's this capital allocation aspect of strategy and then there's areas where you're going-

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

For sure.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

We talked about this.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Absolutely.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

We've talked about MRF and sustainability. This is a natural extension. I think there's potentially a natural extension towards the you know, the industrial waste market as well. You have huge points.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

It's a really good point. It's a really good point. We've talked about that, and nothing's built in about this, and there... you know, but there is the potential to use these incinerators. As you know, we've been in the incinerator business in the past. There is the potential to use this in the industrial space as well not just the medical waste space.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. And/or I gotta believe you've got, I don't know, $3 billion of solid waste revenue, that it's a manufacturing customer that has a non-solid waste, waste streams as well, and they've got to be coming at you, going: "You know, I'd really like to consolidate service providers.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Absolutely.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

And therefore, that's another one of these optionalities, Rafa, on your whiteboard as you've stepped into this strategy role, I would assume.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Yeah, absolutely

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Way to think about it.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Look, it's important to call out that we already have one of the top industrial and hazardous waste businesses in the country, right? So this is additive to that. You know, we have four hazardous waste landfills, we have deep well injection , so it just broadens the suite of services if we were, if we were.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Able to.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

It's just such a tiny little business inside $22 billion, that it's hard to... But you do. And Emelle, Alabama, and Kettleman Hills are extraordinarily well-positioned geographically. You just, if you had an infrastructure around it, it's amazing what you might redirect at you. So you're not buying just a medical waste business, you're also getting a document destruction business. And Jim, I went looking for one, 'cause you said it in a public forum, don't- a long time ago, and I'm not holding you accountable to it. Just saying you said it, was-

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

But I still say it.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Don't necessarily understand the shredding business.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Okay, 8 years ago, what's changed? How did you get comfortable about that business 8 years into the job? I guess I understand better. No, I mean, look, I think the way we view it, and Rafa, you can probably touch on this more than I can, but I mean, it's a sustainability business. 8 years ago, we really weren't. While we were in the recycling business, we really hadn't kind of separated out sustainability as being a strategic imperative, and in the last 4 years, we've put Tara Hemmer into a role over sustainability. So we've really. And obviously, the RNG business is a relatively new development in that space as well. So I think as we look at the Shred-it business , it does dovetail nicely with our recycling business. It's essentially a high-grade paper recycling business.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

With a few more kind of customer requirements.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

But, but I think we have the ability to, when we think about synergies, to squeeze synergies there as well. I would tell you, when we talked to Brent Bell, and you know Brent, our head of our recycling, and Brent— We said: "Brent, what do you think about this?" Brent, by the way, is the right guy to ask, not me, 'cause he knows a lot more about it than I do, and Brent was very excited about it, felt like this has real opportunity inside of his business. As you know, we're spending over $1 billion, not just on RNG, but also on rebuilding these recycle plants.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, modernisation.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Which gives us the ability to potentially run shredded material through there. It also has the same opportunities on the collection and disposal side, or particularly the collection side, of consolidating facilities. I don't know how many facilities they have in certain cities, and we'll have to look at that, but running a Shred-it truck out of a WM facility makes a lot of sense.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Well, they're all box trucks.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Yeah, right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

They're all bo- it's.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

A little more on that point. So the volumes associated with high-grade office paper and so forth have seen a reduction over time over the last kind of five years. Actually, what we're seeing now is that they've stabilized post-pandemic, right? And so now it's a good moment to actually continue the journey that Stericycle has begun on fee for service, as opposed to being heavily dependent on the commodity price. They've done a great job there. We feel like we actually have a lot of experience, having taken our own recycling business into a fee for service model, so there's opportunity there. It's also a really good opportunity to continue to actually cross-sell there, 'cause there's opportunities for cardboard and other recyclable materials that we can leverage.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Well, so just to be clear, so it's, domestically, about $800 million revenues. International, it's about $100 million, and only 10 or 12% of that's actually the paper sale. It is a transaction-based.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So is it your analysis of this? It's slowing over time, but can you flip that to a service-based model like your commercial collection? So it doesn't matter whether I pick you up on Tuesday or I pick you up on Thursday, I'm getting paid.

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

That's exactly, that's exactly the goal, Michael.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay. And then it's, you know, a $4 billion industry. They're, you know, roughly 20%. Iron Mountain's probably about 15, so there's a lot of independents. It's never really been consolidated. So is that an option as well as there's the, you know, the density aspect of stops, just like in commercial-

Rafael Carrasco
SVP of Strategy, Waste Management

Certainly an opportunity to consolidate, but I would tell you that our first order of business is really to sort of optimize. And just as a reminder, that doesn't just mean that we come in, and we take out routes because our routes are compatible. That's actually not the case. We just talked about the difference in the, in the trucks and so forth. But the technology that we're deploying across our own organization is transferable very nicely to the routing and logistics platforms that Stericycle has. And then, with that, we can continue, we can begin to optimize dynamically the efficiency of those routes. And so there's a lot of lowering the cost to serve that has to happen. That enables that conversation about fee for service to develop.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. And then, when they bought it, about 25% of their doctor, dentist, veterinary clinic side of the model use Shred-it for their shredding, and they've never changed that. I mean, that was supposed to be part of it, so that's the cross-sell opportunity of that, you know. And I'm not saying it's gonna be 100, but it ought to move, I mean... And then, you know, they sell, like, six services into a medical waste customer, and they're at 1.2 average services, so that's another opportunity.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, and I do think you’re touching on a really important point, which is that cross-selling piece, whatever we want to call it. You know, Republic talked a lot about that with their acquisition of US Ecology. And rightly so. I mean, it was a really important part of that acquisition. This is a really important part of this acquisition for us.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

And Rafa's talked about it. We've all talked about it. I think it was lost a little bit maybe in the press release. It's hard to communicate on a piece of paper, so, but that is a very important part. In addition to all the other things we've talked about, the cross-selling opportunity between these businesses is really critical. I gave the example of being in a hospital, but there's places where we are, and they aren't.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

And I gave the example of a place where they are, and we are, but there's places where we are, and they aren't.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

And all of that enables cross-selling opportunities. And then with the industrial piece that Rafa mentioned, you mentioned, I mean, there's an opportunity there as well.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

To cross-sell, not just to.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Well.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

To grow.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

If Stericycle, which is a medical waste company, can manage to get $200 million of revenues out of $1.5 billion, is the, my word, bundling of solid waste, recycling, healthcare, hazardous waste, I can't imagine what your machine could do around that, you know, and therefore against your $22 billion. There's, you know... I get you're not putting a number out there, and I'm, y ou know, would be a guesstimating, but I gotta believe it's better than $200 million incrementally, so it would be pretty interesting opportunity.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

I think the thing for us when we looked at this opportunity, we've always talked about, and you, you framed it on our capital allocation priorities. We think about things in terms of return on invested capital, and the IRR that we see on this business outpaces that of the ADS acquisition that we did, and we all know the success that WM created with the ADS acquisition. So what we're excited about is that this is a growth platform, a growth industry, a growth space, and we think there's momentum with all of the hard work that the existing leadership team has done, and being able to capture that and move it forward with our expertise. And as a result, the IRR on this will exceed the IRR on the ADS acquisition by probably 150 basis points.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

ADS now sits at what type of an IRR?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

We're, you know, I would say, our final view of the IRR of that was high single digits.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Okay, so this is gonna be low double digits but.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Low double digits.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. February 2023, you all shared with the market you thought you could compound free cash flow at 5%-7%. You've been doing better than that because of these incremental investments in the MRFs and the recycling, and the RNG and the like, in your own, and then the self-help. You've got that pop from that digitalization story. But that does have a runway, it, and it anniversaries and does the thing settle? My impression of this, if we're really gonna buy into they were gonna have a compound EBITDA 15% a year for 5 or 6 years, their model.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

And convert that at 50%-60% free cash, that this helps lengthen your better than your 5-7. Is that the right conclusion?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

You know, I think Jim also made the point on their capital efficiency. It's a more capital efficient business than o ur business. So whether it's driving more of their revenue dollars to operating cash or the capital efficiency gains, we do think that our fundamental commitment to 5%-7% annual growth in free cash flow should be extended with this acquisition, particularly when you think about the fact that our expectations for synergy realization in projecting our returns on this business, you know, they're not a traditional 12-month synergy capture. It's gonna take us longer to get these synergies than a traditional solid waste acquisition. So that's one of the things that, for us, speaks to that longer time horizon of being able to capture 5%-7%.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

But to that point, Michael, and you used the word probably for the, for expedience's sake, bought into their long-range plan. We actually diligenced their long-range plan, and there's some confidence there, right? That they can attain it, and we can help accelerate the potential.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

That they're doing.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, it. I wasn't being pejorative.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

No, no.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

I mean, it's.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I understand.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, they had a plan, and you've come away going, "we believe the plan," through your own due diligence.

I get that. But it's compounding at a rate of growth that's better than is compounding, and therefore, it should support sustaining. You're actually outpacing your own target of 5-7 at the moment, and our quick.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Right.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Modeling is it'll help lengthen the—you'll continue to outpace 5-7.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, but to Rafa's point, I mean, yes, we did diligence that, and we like the fact that they have that, and we don't disagree with it, but it doesn't factor in a lot of what we bring to the table. So that's-

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

No, no, that's.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

That's part of the beauty of this.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

There's a whole.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, revenue and cost. I mean, you know, their number for SG&A, as I mentioned, 22% is their 2024 number.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

And they had a reduction in, I think, in March, and so they.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

They did a RIF, yeah.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Yeah, so they've been going through this process. So I think there's some opportunity beyond what we diligenced. We like the process that they've been going through. They have not, because they've had a finite bucket of dollars to spend on technology, for example, they've been spending it on the ERP, which they should be. But they haven't had the ability to spend $300 million on routing and logistics systems that we have.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

We bring that to them.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah. Do you keep the SAP for continuity purposes?

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yes.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

It just seems like that would be just.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I think so.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yes.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I don't think we're trying to convert that over to ours.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, yeah, that would just.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

There's a reason we didn't try and implement SAP in our own organization.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, we've been there, done that, and.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yeah, it's been.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Got the t-shirt.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Exactly.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

That.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

So, we're impressed with the work that they've done a nd we'll keep the platform they've built.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right. Yeah, and plus, why disrupt the culture at this point?

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Absolutely.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So they have $450 million that's outside of the United States, not, not including Canada, can include... So outside of North America. Thoughts about what you do with that?

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I think that the way to think about that is, that was not core to the strategic significance of the acquisition, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have a nice, conservative perch from which to look at the Western Europe market and see what that might yield in the future.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

So just to be very clear, so everybody doesn't run out of here and go, "Oh, my goodness, Waste Management's gonna go buying garbage businesses in Europe," that's not your message. It's just, you'll look at it and figure out whether you're the right owner.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yeah, absolutely. You know, Michael, I think one of the things that I heard the final comments with Waste Connections, and you brought up circular economy and sustainability. We all know that the circular economy and sustainability front in Europe is in some respects ahead of what we've done in North America, and our recycling team has been exceptionally well-connected intentionally with what's happening in the part of Europe that Stericycle's operating within.

And so if there's anything that just continues our presence in that market in order to accelerate our focus on being the best recycler and, and the best, solid waste company that can take the, the waste and, and the recycled content that we all generate and create maximum value for that in a circular economy, I think it could be a nice synergy that we're not even considering in terms of what brought value.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Right.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

From the Stericycle transaction.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah. Well, and I will confess, in my new role, starting on Monday, I hope to change the narrative towards more circular, 'cause I think it's a narrative that you all as an industry, the, and as the leader in size, you control a feedstock, and we ought to... and you're in a position to influence behavior around like for like, and circular, to me, is like for like.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

And I think on the international piece, Rafa said it well. I mean, it gives us a nice place to kind of view Western Europe. But I would also say, what they'll have left when this deal eventually closes doesn't scare us. There were a couple that would've scared us, had we still had-

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah, Brazil is pretty frightening. And I suspect there's about $100 million of Shred-it that's just in, like, nine countries, and there probably is a better owner. But the UK-Ireland business, it's a nice business.

Devina Rankin
CFO, Waste Management

Yes.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

It's about $300 million in revenues, and Spain and Portugal's little. Maybe you keep it, maybe you don't, but it's. The U.K.-Ireland's a nice business. They've made that investment in the incinerator, so they're, it's fully modernized to address what's happening in that economy as well.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

I think that's, that's our view as well.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Yeah. We're at the end of our time. I wanna thank you very much for sharing this.

Jim Fish
CEO, Waste Management

Well, I hope it was helpful.

Michael Hoffman
Group Head of Diversified Industrial Research, Stifel

Thank you. Everybody know.

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