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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

May 4, 2022

Operator

Thank you all for standing by, and welcome to the Yum China Q1 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question -and- answer session. To ask a question at that time, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. I'd now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Florence Lip, Senior Director, Investor Relations of Yum China. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Florence Lip
Senior Director of Investor Relations, Yum China

Thank you, Tara. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining Yum China's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining us on today's call are our CEO, Ms. Joey Wat, and our CFO, Mr. Andy Yeung. Due to the current COVID restrictions in Shanghai, we are dialing in from different locations today. If we experience a technical difficulty during the call, please remain on the line as we reconnect. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that our earnings call and investor presentations contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to future events and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with a cautionary statement in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC. This call also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. You should carefully consider the comparable GAAP measures.

Reconciliation of non-GAAP and GAAP measures is included in our earnings release. Today's call includes three sections. Joey will provide an update regarding our performance in first quarter. Andy will then cover the financial performance and outlook in greater detail. Finally, we will open the call to questions. You can find a webcast of this call in a PowerPoint presentation, which contain operational and financial information for the quarter on our IR website. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Joey Wat, CEO of Yum China. Joey?

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you, Florence. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are battling the most severe outbreak since COVID-19 first emerged two years ago. The challenges we face are unprecedented. The case count, duration, geographical coverage, and restrictive measures are far more extensive than previous outbreaks. Shanghai, Tianjin, Jilin, and Guangdong were among the places to experience extended periods of lockdown. Shanghai, one of the most impacted cities, has been locked down for more than a month now. Our operational headquarters in Shanghai are all working remotely. Hundreds of millions of people across China are currently under some level of restrictions. Even regions with few cases have tightened containment measures in line with the dynamic zero-COVID policy. Compared to 2020, it's far more complex to keep our stores open, get our employees to work, and obtain necessary approvals.

Our store operations, delivery, and supply chain have been heavily impacted due to ever-changing restrictions. I want to thank our frontline employees at restaurants and logistics centers, our delivery riders, and our staff at the back office for working tirelessly during this difficult time. I'm extremely proud to see how quickly we adapted to each new challenge and how teams from across the company support one another. From procurement, logistics, IT, HR, to public affairs, we work as one team. Our mission is to serve the communities and customers in need to the best of our ability. Hundreds of our back office staff rising to the occasion. They volunteered to serve at the front line, supporting our restaurants. They performed health checks at restaurants, delivered food using their own cars, and served as customer service representatives.

Soon after the lockdown in Shanghai started, when most business activities have come to a halt, we became one of the few and first authorized food suppliers to serve the communities. While we can only offer limited services, we are prioritizing food and drinks to frontline workers, volunteers, and makeshift hospitals. We also provide ready-to-eat products to the elderly living alone and KFC Children's Day set meal to kids in quarantine centers. During the lockdown, the demand for KFC and Pizza Hut products surged. Many of our customers got on social media like WeChat and Douyin, the equivalent of TikTok in China, expressing their longing for our signature products. Many of them also shared the happy moments on social media when they enjoyed KFC fried chicken or Pizza Hut pizza. I'm glad we could bring some comfort and joy to our customers in trying times like this.

It also gives us energy and a renewed sense of purpose. Health and wellness of our employees is always our top priority. We delivered over 10,000 food packages to closed-off employees. We also provide packages with essential supplies and upgraded medical plan for those who are infected. Our ability to adapt to the dynamic operating environment is at the core of our resiliency. With valuable learnings from prior outbreaks, we have developed extensive scenario planning and toolkits to deal with different situations. Nationwide, we quickly adjusted marketing campaigns and simplified menu to streamline operations. Our hybrid delivery model with dedicated riders allowed us to maintain adequate rider capacity and continue operations in most places. Delivery grew at double digits and reached 36% of company sales. Seizing the demand for home consumption, we promoted new retail package products such as steak, pasta, and fried rice.

New retail sales in the first quarter more than doubled over the prior year period. The surge of Omicron cases and the ensuing lockdown have turned everything upside down for us in Shanghai. Despite the citywide lockdown, we were able to keep about 10%-15% of our stores open for delivery or takeaway in April. To serve as many communities as possible when mobility is heavily restricted, we introduced community purchasing across all brands as early as mid-March. This is a new way to group orders among residents. To maximize efficiency, we focused on key menu categories, offering only a few preset combos. We also promoted new retail packaged food, which are perfect items ready to eat and easy to store under this circumstance. The retail sales mix in April surged to over 15% in Shanghai.

By swiftly implementing these initiatives, we were able to generate 40%-50% of pre-lockdown level of sales in Shanghai, despite having very limited stores offering off-premises, services only. In other words, 10%-15% of our stores generated 40%-50% of our pre-lockdown sales in Shanghai. Community purchase created new business opportunity for our brands. KFC optimized its community purchasing menu to just one item, the fried chicken combo. As it is one of the most desired food items during lockdown, our customers shared their appreciation on social media, quoting that having KFC fried chicken is the happiest moment in the last month, and our fried chicken is a comfort food and nourishment of the soul. People are craving for KFC, and we are working our best to fulfill them.

We also look forward to serving customers at our restaurants when they come to satisfy their craving after the lockdown. Pizza Hut was one of the few places to order hot pizza during lockdown. To meet the demand, we simplified the menu to combos with two pizzas, fried rice, and ready-to-cook steak and pasta. Our customers were so excited to receive high quality, well-packaged, and safe products during lockdown. Community purchasing presented fantastic cross-selling opportunities and increased brand awareness for our emerging brands. These brands captured a significant portion of sales compared to the level before lockdown with signature products and packaged food offerings, even when only a few stores were open in Shanghai. For example, Lavazza offered packaged cheese and ham in addition to its famous coffee and pastries. Taco Bell served hot quesadilla, fried chicken, and breakfast DIY package.

Little Sheep offered takeaway hot pot with meat and fresh vegetables, highly sought-after item during lockdown. Let's move on to supply chain and digital. Our industry-leading supply chain and digital capabilities are critical business enablers to fulfill ever-changing demands. Our in-house supply chain team work wonders in difficult situations like this. We quickly introduced strategic redundancy in our supply chain with backups in different logistics centers to lessen the impact of supply chain disruptions and to allow us to continue operations. We immediately designed a 200 km detour route to ensure supply to logistics centers in Eastern China. Instead of just using trucks, we move inventories by rail and sea freight as well. In just a few days, we set up a temporary drop-off and pickup site not far from Shanghai to support the region under lockdown.

We also repurposed ingredients from one product to another and reallocate inventory across restaurants and even brands to fully utilize our resources and minimize wastage. Digital enable us to put innovative ideas into actions. Since March, we cut back on advertising. We leveraged our membership program and our own channels to digitally engage our customers. We rapidly launched a digital mini program to make community purchasing easier. Our digital infrastructure provides real-time visibility to store inventory, allowing us to precisely forecast the material demand, manage supply chain routes, and minimize food wastage.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, it appears that Joey has dropped from the call. Please stand by while she reconnects the line.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Hello. The line just dropped and I just call back. Can you hear me?

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Yes, Joey. Please go ahead.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Yeah. I hope by now you have a better picture of the challenges that we face, and even in situations like this, how we find ways to serve our customers and communities. This is the third year for the COVID pandemic. It is understandable that pandemic fatigue may be settling in. I'm very proud of our team members. They have been courageous and continue to maintain a positive attitude in face of adversity. The pandemic will surely pass, and our business will recover. As we look ahead, I'm confident that as long as we focus on new opportunities, remain innovative, be bold with our initiatives, be agile in our action, and control our cost structure, we can get through this challenging time and become even stronger. We remain confident in the long-term prospects in China.

We will continue to invest and focus on our RGM strategy, so we can fortify our market leadership and capture the significant growth opportunities across our brand. Before I pass to Andy, let me say a few words about changes in our leadership team. I'm pleased that Johnson Huang, previously the General Manager of KFC, is now our first Chief Customer Officer. This strategic move will better integrate customer centricity into our brand-driven culture. Johnson will focus on building capabilities to better understand and serve customers. He will spearhead cross-functional initiatives, including cross-brand customer loyalty program and delivery initiative. He will also oversee COFFii & JOY, Lavazza, and Taco Bell. With Johnson's strong technology background and deep understanding of the organization, I'm confident that he's the best leader for this role. Warton Wang, our Chief Development Officer, succeed Johnson as the new KFC GM.

Warton joined KFC as an operations management trainee 24 years ago and work his way up. He led various initiatives to improve KFC's business operations, innovate store formats and business models. I believe that Warton's strong leadership and deep operations experience will bring KFC to new heights. Warton's achievement as a homegrown leader will also inspire our entire frontline employees. With that, I will turn the call over to Andy. Andy?

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Thank you, Joey, and hello, everyone. Now, let me share some color of our first quarter performance. Compared to a relatively stable January and February, the COVID situation in March rapidly deteriorated. March same-store sales declined by more than 20%. As Joey mentioned, our team put in tremendous efforts to sustain operations, mobilize and fully utilize available resources to drive sales and to actively manage costs. We achieved a profitable quarter, demonstrating the resiliency of the business. We continued growth by opening 329 net new stores and ending the quarter with over 12,000 units. First quarter total revenue grew 4% in reported currency to $2.7 billion. The contribution of new units and the consolidation of Hangzhou KFC was partially offset by the same-store sales decline and temporary store closures. System sales were down 4% in constant currency.

Same-store sales were 92% of prior year's level. By brand, KFC same-store sales were 91% of prior year's level, with same-store traffic at 86%. Average ticket grew 6%, mainly due to the increase in delivery mix, which has a higher average ticket than dine-in. Pizza Hut same-store sales were 95% of prior year's level. Same-store traffic was at 97%, while average ticket was down by 2%. This was driven by the increased mix of delivery, which has a lower average ticket than dine-in. Restaurant margin was 13.8%, down 490 basis points compared to last year. This was mainly due to delivery, higher commodity prices and wage inflation, as well as higher delivery costs due to increasing delivery volume. Now let me go through each expense line item.

Cost of sales was 31.1%, 90 basis points higher than last year. This was mainly due to commodity inflation. We also incur higher logistic costs and wasteage due to the regional outbreaks. Cost of labor was 26.2%, 90 basis points higher than last year. This is due to sales leveraging, wage inflation of 5%, and higher delivery rider costs from higher delivery mix. Occupancy and others was 28.9%, 110 basis points higher than last year, mainly attributable to the sales leveraging impact and 10% increase in utility prices. The impact was partially mitigated by proactive savings in advertising expenses. G&A expenses increased 14% year over year in constant currency, mainly due to consolidation of Hangzhou KFC and Lavazza, as well as increased compensation and benefit expenses. Operating profit was $191 million.

Solid performance in January and February enabled us to achieve a profitable quarter. The net contribution from Hangzhou KFC's consolidation was 5% of operating profit in the quarter. It also includes the amortization of intangible assets acquired, roughly $60 million per quarter that runs through the end of this year. Below the operating profit line, we incur a $30 million mark-to-market net loss on our equity investment this quarter. It was $49 million more than the same period last year. Our effective tax rate was 33.1%. The high tax rate is mainly due to lower pre-tax income and the Hangzhou KFC consolidation. Prior to consolidation, the equity income from JVs was not subject to tax, resulting in a lower tax rate. These factors will likely continue to impact the effective tax rate for the rest of the year.

Therefore, we expect full year effective tax rates to be low- to mid-30s%. Net income was $100 million. Diluted EPS was $0.23. The mark-to-market loss in Meituan negatively impacted diluted EPS by $0.07. Let's now turn our attention to the outlook for the second quarter 2022. As the COVID situation deteriorates, we face even stronger headwinds in the second quarter. Eastern China, the most economically vibrant region in China, is severely impacted this time. Eastern China is also our most important market, accounting for around 30%-40% of our store mix and sales mix. Apart from Shanghai, many large cities such as Guangzhou, Suzhou, Tianjin, Changchun, and Xi'an were also partially locked down in April. Strict preventive measures are in place nationwide, significantly limiting social activities and mobility.

For example, during the Labor Day holidays in Beijing, restaurants provided only off-premise services. Residents are required to provide proof of a negative PCR test to enter public venues. Consumer spending has also been weak. Non-manufacturing PMI dropped from 48 in March to 42 in April, according to government statistics. This was the lowest and steepest reduction since February 2020. In April, our same-store sales declined more than 20%. In addition, around 3,000 stores were temporarily closed or provided only delivery or takeaway services, significantly more than March. Around half was temporary closures. As a reminder, stores providing only delivery and takeaway services are included in our same-store sales calculations. Temporary closures are excluded from the same-store sales calculation during the closure period, but would negatively impact system sales and revenue. Margins are expected to be pressured further in the second quarter.

Significant sales decline is expected due to the worsening COVID outbreak. Sales deleveraging impact will be more pronounced too, as sales and margins are seasonally lower in the second quarter. Furthermore, we continue to face several cost headwinds, including the surge in commodity prices, wages, and utility prices. The increase in delivery sales mix will also increase rider costs. The current situation is very challenging. We incurred loss in March. Barring a significant improvement in external conditions in May and June, we expect to operate at a loss in the second quarter. We are taking actions to lessen the short-term impact. In addition to what Joey mentioned, we are adjusting our marketing events and promotional activities, temporarily postponing store remodels, negotiating rent relief, optimizing raw material cost structure, and implementing G&A austerity. We quickly deployed various initiatives across the country while staying flexible depending on local conditions.

Now looking past the very tough business environment in the near term, our efforts will have a long-term positive impact. We have strengthened our brand equities and bonded with our customer. We have also gained valuable experience and developed toolkits to help us navigate different situations. Our business model is even more agile and resilient than before. We have made important breakthroughs in community purchase and new retail. We will continue to make constructive and strategic changes to seize market opportunity as they arise. We're here in China for the long run. Powered by healthy store economics, we are confident to further expand our store network. KFC and Pizza Hut new store maintain healthy store payback at two years and three years respectively. The majority of stores opened in 2021 also achieved monthly break-even within the first three months.

While we expect a slower pace of store openings in the second quarter due to COVID, we still intend to achieve our full-year target of 1,000-1,200 net new units. We'll continue with our systematic and disciplined approach and prudently evaluate the situation. Also, I'm pleased to share that we have entered into an agreement with Yum! Brands to jointly step up investment in accelerating Taco Bell's store growth in China. We are committed to expanding the Taco Bell store network to at least 100 stores by the end of this year and at least 225 stores by the end of 2025. In turn, Yum China will have the exclusive right to operate the brand in China for 50 years. I'm confident in Taco Bell's long-term potential in China. Now turning to capital allocation.

The board of directors expanded the authorization of share repurchases by $1 billion in March to an aggregate of $2.4 billion. At the end of the first quarter, our remaining authorization was approximately $1.4 billion. We returned over $280 million to shareholders in cash dividends and share buybacks in the first quarter. We continue to employ a disciplined and balanced capital allocation strategy. As I mentioned before, our priority is to have sufficient cash for daily operations and to deal with contingencies. We will continue to make significant CapEx investment in digital, supply chain infrastructure, and our store network expansions. We are confident that these investments will widen our strategic moat, drive sustainable growth, and capture attractive long-term opportunities in China. With that, I will pass you back to Florence to start the Q&A. Florence.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thanks, Andy. We will now open the call for questions. Operator, could you please start the Q&A?

Operator

Thank you, Florence. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question -and- answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you need to cancel your request, please press the pound or hash key. Our first question comes from Sijie Lin at CICC. Please go ahead.

Sijie Lin
Analyst, CICC

Thank you, Joey and Andy. Thank you for your great efforts in the current environment. I have two questions. The multiple waves of COVID outbreaks, especially the Omicron this year. It's a very difficult situation for market players in the whole restaurant industry. Regarding the impact on industry supply, what's your observation? You see many closures of mom and pops during last two years. Are we seeing more small and medium-sized chains facing difficulties this year? And my second question is, could you please give us more color on the promotion strategy at the current stage? What's the difference compared to last two years considering the evolving situation? Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you, Sijie Lin. Let me share some thoughts here. First of all, we are very grateful for our own business model. You know, this is Yum China, particularly KFC and Pizza Hut, a fantastic business model that we can do well when times are good, but it's also proven again and again during challenging times, this is a very resilient business model. So we are very grateful, and we still can capture, you know, 40%-50% of sales in Shanghai with 10%-15% of stores. In terms of competitive landscape, it's still a bit difficult to tell, particularly in Shanghai or lockdown cities, because we're still going through it.

I think this is definitely the time that differentiates the company with solid operating capability and also prudent financial arrangement versus the others. Fortunately, I think for Yum China, both our operation and digital capabilities and also our prudent financial philosophy help us through the difficult time. In terms of promotion strategies, we have multiple scenarios. While for nationwide, the sales is under pressure. For the cities and the province that are still going on you know with our normal business operation, the business still as usual. We still pursue good product with fantastic values with promotion.

Recently we just launched the entry-level beef burger priced at RMB 19. For Pizza Hut, we just launched a new menu for the year, which is again 40% improvement of the menu item on the menu. This is still going on, and we still have like our very famous Crazy Thursday for KFC and Screaming Wednesday for Pizza Hut as value program. For cities that are in lockdown, such as Shanghai or Guangzhou or Shenzhen, we put back the promotion. Because the focus is about maximizing our limited resources to meet the customer's unmet needs.

Here, we really have the unmet needs because a rather small percentage of our stores can open. We also put back our menu. As I mentioned earlier, in KFC case, we only offer one combo, which is fried chicken. We don't have burger, we don't have fries, just fried chicken with some Pepsi Cola. For Pizza Hut, there are two pizzas. The very famous

Operator

Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, it looks like Joey's line has dropped once again. Please stand by. Thank you, Joey. You're now free back on the call. Please continue.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Okay. We can take the next question.

Operator

Certainly. Our next question will come from Lillian Lou at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Lillian.

Lillian Lou
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, Joey. Hope all is well. Given all the challenges, the operation are facing, could you give us a bit update about the trends in eastern and southern area close to the end of April or May, i.e., the latest trend? Especially, I think in southern China seems like the situation is better than eastern region. If we talk about the economic importance, both regions are very important. Just to give a little bit color of if the lockdown-

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Sure.

Lillian Lou
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Friday is kind of a relief, what the impact could be? Following on that also, because you mentioned that, there's a simplified menu, and also in the normal areas we also offer the normal menus. Want to understand a little bit further of, under such a complicated situation, how do we manage the logistics, and also procurement, especially I understand that the transportation disruption bottleneck is still there. Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you. You know, Andy has mentioned earlier about his thought and our thought about the Q2 and the early May trading. I'm going to comment on the trading pattern. Let me take KFC as example to help sort of understand the overall big picture. The dine-in sales definitely dropped very significantly. The delivery has come up and, you know, we can understand that nationwide we drove growth through our hybrid delivery model with our own rider. As I mentioned earlier, in Shanghai's case, you know, when we don't have enough rider or our rider being quarantined, our own back office staff volunteer to deliver whenever we could, if we can get the license or approval to go out and deliver.

That's the dine-in versus delivery. The transportation hub, as you can imagine, really suffer. The transportation hub, like the train station, et cetera, the trade right now is about 50% below the pre-COVID level compared to 2020. You know, non-transportation location also declined because the decline is nationwide. In terms of weekend versus weekday, weekend is doing slightly better because it's a bit more functional. Weekday is a bit more better because it's functional. Weekend, you know, it's a bit, it's slightly a bit weaker, relatively speaking. Lower tier cities are doing slightly better because they are less impacted by the transportation hub.

The higher-tier city is more impacted by the regional outbreaks. System sales in lower tier city also is better because of the new store opening there. By region, interestingly, despite the outbreaks in the southern part of China and eastern part of China, eastern part of China is still doing better in terms of same store growth. It's a very resilient part of the country. We are very focused on eastern part of China, so this is not that bad news. Beyond the pattern of trading, I mean, the similar pattern kind of, you know, sort of applies to Pizza Hut as well.

In terms of the logistics and procurement, as I mentioned earlier, I think our team is just absolutely amazing. Not to mention, this is our own in-house logistics supply chain, and they work days and nights. Our team have come up with alternative arrangement very quickly. We traditionally use trucks to move goods around, and you probably know that it has become a bit challenging to move goods around across provinces. We use rail mainly to take the goods to the west, and then use sea freight. Sea freight, we can put our goods into sea freight and send it to Tianjin to cover the northern part of China and send to Guangzhou to cover southern part of China.

Our logistics center in Shanghai and Guangdong, we have both, they are working, our team is working in sort of closed loop arrangement, to keep our, you know, logistics, you know, running, without major disruptions. Also because this is our own in-house team, so we can move the supply between the stores and between the brands and to also minimize the wastage. Again, you know, it has proven our investment in supply chain and also in digital capability, a very important strategic move, because now we have visibility, digital visibility of a real time store, so that we know exactly where stores are, what's their expiry date.

With the visibility, we can be a lot more efficient to keep up the supply as much as we could and also minimize the food wastage, particularly when food is a challenge for Shanghai. This is incredibly important. That's where we are. It's not easy. There are a lot of drama, a lot of challenges. We seem to be able to adapt really quickly and be as agile as ever. I mean, I'm sure some of these innovations will help us in the long term as well. Not to mention, other than logistics and procurement, all these things, what really helps is externally our innovations in new retail.

We have been incubating the new retail business for a few years now. It's a brand called Shaofaner. We've been doing it for a few years now. By second week of March, we can see you know the potential opportunity in new retail when Shanghai was in sort of soft lockdown. Literally within a few days, we come up with the initiative of community purchasing across all the brands, not only KFC, Pizza Hut, but Lavazza and Taco Bell and Little Sheep, all the brands. We do it together. Original community purchasing is only a hotline. Later on, we have the. When I say later on, I mean a few days later.

We have the mini app, and then, you know, we have the ready-to-eat, ready-to-heat, ready-to-cook products. And the packaged food also allow us to be more efficient with the logistics process, because, you know, the new retail packaged food, these are much better food to store and to move around in bulk. So of course, where we are and with this challenge comes opportunity because, you know, Yum China is very well positioned to capitalize on, with extensive store network, our membership, our online channel, and already established, you know, channels via third parties such as Jingdong or Tmall, for the new retail as well. So I'll pause here and save some time for the next question. Okay.

Thank you, Lillian.

Bryan Wang
Equity Research Associate, China Merchants Securities

Thanks a lot, Joey.

Florence Lip
Senior Director of Investor Relations, Yum China

Thank you. Just before we continue, we'll ask the participants to limit to one question. Thank you. Our next question will come from Anne Ling at Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Anne Ling
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Hey. Hi. Hi, thank you very much for taking my call. Just to follow up, you know, regarding the same store sales comment that Joey just mentioned, that the same store sales was better in eastern part of China despite all these, like, stringent lockdown. Meaning that, you know, the other markets for the rest of the nation, you know, we are seeing like not a much weaker same store sales trend. Just want to check with management what is your take on this.

Is it like, you know, does it mean that, you know, there's more fundamental issues, regarding like, you know, consumer sentiment or some underlying structural issue which we should continue to worry about, even when the COVID situation starts to subside on this, on that? We're also seeing like, you know, the membership sales, as a percentage of sales, you know, was lower, you know, on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Does it mean that, you know, during this period, you know, we have more new customers? If that's the case, you know, how are we able to, capture this and turn it into our members? And if it is not the case, you know, how are we going to remedy that? Thanks.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Hi, Anne, this is Andy. I think I will take your question.

Anne Ling
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Okay.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

I think the first question is about the regional differences.

Anne Ling
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Right

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

You know, even China and the rest of the country. I think, you know, there's a couple things. One is obviously we're referring to the overall eastern part of China, you know, not impacted by. Well, not nothing impacted by the COVID situation. For example, Shanghai, obviously, you know, because of the lockdown is significantly below the national average. But I think what we're referring to is the overall situation in eastern China outside of Shanghai is probably still performing quite robustly. So, I think it probably had to do with the overall economic vibrancy here in eastern China.

As you know, eastern China is the most vibrant, economically speaking, regions in the country. You know, account for a big part of GDP, very strong growth rate, and we see that, you know, the wealth distribution is also, you know, quite evenly distributed. That's why we continue to see eastern China as a very important and a very good growth market for us. Now, obviously there's some regional differences. You know, for example, northeastern part of China, this year and over, you know, the last couple years, had been hit by wave after wave of COVID. You know, I think, overall economically speaking, you know, the northeastern part of China is also, you know, less vibrant compared to, you know, for example, eastern China.

I think that's generally there's some regional differences. You know, obviously our strategy, our store network expansions would also, you know, factor that in, as we, you know, open new store. Now, you know, I think, you know, the other question is about, you know, the sales decline.

I think, you know, it's very important to keep in mind, you know, the same-store sales decline in recent months are driven by COVID surge in terms of Omicron surge, which resulting in, you know, very strict preventive measure and health measures, that I have to say, you know, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, have an impact on the restaurant industry but also on, you know, obviously the non-manufacturing service sectors in China as well, and also the manufacturing sectors. I think, you know, it's worth keeping in mind the temporary or the short-term nature of this.

If you look at with confidence, you know, we're doing a lot of things obviously trying to address the short-term challenges, you know, both in terms of, you know, how to use our existing resources. One obviously is to, you know, continue to provide service to our customer, to manage costs, to value propositions and also meet the demand in the impacted regions. Then we also have cost control. As we mentioned, it's not only for short term, but also, you know, looking to cost structure in longer term, how we can emerge better. We're confident, you know, if you look at, you know, long run, you know, in China we have very strong opportunities. There's a lot of white space still, so we can expand and grow.

If you look at, you know, between, you know, second half 2020 and the first half of 2021, when, you know, things become relatively more stable, we were able to capitalize on, you know, the rebound, the recovery, and also, you know, the opportunities that presented in terms of both sales and also margins. I think it's fairly, you know, fair to say, you know, there's a short-term piece and then there's an intermediate longer term, and then a longer term we are much, you know, more confident about the market opportunity. Anne, hopefully that answers your questions.

Anne Ling
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Right. What I'm also referring to is on the membership sales as a percentage to system sales, where, like, you know, it's grown from, like, 64% previously to 62%.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

I think, you know, like, the membership sales is not always higher the better. You have to understand, you know, like, our membership continue growth and, you know, obviously, you know, in this period of time, you know, like, you know, maybe it may not be impacted. You know, we continue need to have, you know, attract new customer. You know, if we have 100% member sales, you know, then that would be problematic for us in the long term. Because, you know, that means we're not attracting new customer, you know, to purchase, you know, at our store. I think it's a healthy mix, you know, in 60-some percent in membership is already very high number.

You know, we don't particularly pursue a number for membership sales, and we don't particularly think that, you know, having, you know, higher membership sales would necessarily be better. I think, you know, this is healthy level, where we have a good mix of you know, our member sales and then also a good mix of new customers coming to our store.

Anne Ling
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, cool.

Thank you, Andy.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Veronica Song at Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Veronica Song
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks for taking my question, and thanks, Joey and Andy, for sharing. This is Veronica Song from Credit Suisse. I have a quick question on the store expansion. The expansion today is very well on track. I understand that management maintains the annual expansion target for now. May we ask what market condition or at what stage will the management consider to lift or cut the annual expansion target? Thanks.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Okay. Joy, let me address this question for Veronica.

Operator

Yep.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

In terms of our store network expansions, I think, you know, it is worthy to keep in mind that we employ a very disciplined, you know, strategy for store network expansion. You know, we continue to see good opportunity, that's why, you know, we continue to, you know, expand our network. Our store economics, our payback period reflect that, you know, disciplined approach and also, you know, the strong economics. If you look at, you know, KFC, for example, you know, the payback period for those new stores were, you know, two years. For Pizza Hut is about, you know, three years. It's very strong economics and, you know, because we apply a consistent, disciplined approach, you know, we saw relatively consistent. That can happen.

You know, I think a lot of people ask questions why, you know, it seems like we have some COVID challenge, how come your store economics and payback is still very strong? That's because, you know, over the past few years, we continue innovating our store model. We lower the CapEx, make us more flexible. We just see more opportunities, more site available that meet, you know, our internal requirements. Now, on the other hand, I think, you know, obviously COVID and the new store is not immune to COVID. But you know, I think, you know, if we look at, you know, the situations, if it is a prolonged situations, obviously longer term, you will see that that impact reflected, you know, in our payback period.

Our payback period is based on, you know, sort of like a cycle, so a 12-24 months performance. When you have sharp, you know, impact in the short term, it may not show up in the near term. Now, what will change in our long-term store network expansion? As we have mentioned, you know, obviously, you know, in the first quarter, we're gonna slow the store expansions because the COVID situation right now. Some of these is practical reasons. We also, you know, are suspending, you know, sort of like store remodeling at this time, temporarily. Our store remodeling is in very good shape.

You know, on average, you know, the store portfolio, you know, the store either new or have been remodeled over, you know, a five years. So 80% of that is like that. So, you know, we think we can also slow that a little bit. You know, unless obviously, as I mentioned, you know, these COVID situations have, you know, been very prolonged, and then will impact, you know, our store unit economics, then we may go back and evaluate. So the important thing for us metrics that we look after is obviously the return on our investment, the hit rate, success rate of our new store, and then obviously, you know, going forward, you know, how close we, you know, the market is trending to our expectation.

All these would help us to revise, you know, our model input. Hopefully, you know, when we look at the longer term strategy, there's no change to it. I think, you know, the store economics is still very healthy. As I mentioned before, 2021 new store opening, they were able to reach breakeven within three months. That's very healthy, and the payback period is very healthy. Not much in the long term change our view on store network expansion. We see a lot of space, you know, in the low tier cities as well as, you know, potentially improving our store density in the urban area for off-premise consumption. Thank you, Veronica.

Veronica Song
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lina Yan at HSBC. Please go ahead.

Lina Yan
Analyst, HSBC

Hi, management. Thanks very much for taking my question. I think there are a lot of uncertainty in the short term, so I actually want to ask a question about the longer term. If I look at like a KFC per store sales per year, like, in 2019, it was close to CNY 8 million per store. That's lower number in 2020, and even lower number in 2021, probably because we opened more stores in lower tier cities. I think, like if we consider like a longer term, like considering the mix of new store opening, do management have an estimate of where is the ideal, like, the per store sales for KFC can settle at, like, in the absence of COVID situation?

Also considering the opportunity from retail, like, Joey just shared, the retail has, like grown very fast. Capacity-wise, theoretically, what kind of retail revenue we could expect in 2022? What is more like a medium-term target? That's my question. Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you. Let me share some thoughts with you in this particular area. One is about the store average sales, and the other one is the new retail. For store average sales, I would like to take a step back and share that KFC and Pizza Hut both have a range of store models. There are some big stores that have you know more seating, and there are some smaller stores that is more off-premise driven. This is incredibly important, because if we keep changing the average store size, then we miss the big opportunity in terms of the convenience. The reason why this is so important because if you can see our mix of off-premises business is growing and growing, and off-premises is really driven by the store network.

As Andy just mentioned earlier in our new store opening strategy, the store density within our current top-tier cities is incredibly important. Of course, we are opening stores in the lower-tier cities as well, as you mentioned. You know, if you just think theoretically, within the same five-kilometer, if I have more stores there, then the convenience and the speed of delivery is much higher and more efficient. We will continue to pursue a range of business model or store models within the business. Let's say Pizza Hut, for the new stores that we opened this year, 70-80 of the stores are smaller stores. We're talking about 100 sq m or 150 sq m or below. That is the smallest store we're pursuing.

When it comes to retail, new retail, it's still early days. Last year, for 2021, our sales was about give or take about $80 million. That doubled the sales the year before, because we have been incubating this business for a few years now. As of quarter one this year, we further doubled that compared to the previous year. For the quarter one, we are talking about close to $40 million new retail sales. I mean, when we put it in the entire business, you know, we have a pretty big base, and you're talking about 1%-2%.

If we only look at the lockdown cities such as Shanghai, we can be talking about 10%, 20% or even in smaller business, 50% for the emerging brands. It is a bit too early to tell how big it is in the future. As I mentioned just earlier, we are in very good position to do that because we have the products, we have the store network, and we have our online channel, and we have our own logistics and delivery capability and so for new retail business, even though it's still relatively small, you know, it's profitable, which is very difficult to achieve. So that's where we are.

It's proven to be particularly important in difficult time like this. We are so glad for the flexibility and agility of the new retail that brought us in the middle of the pandemic. Thank you.

Lina Yan
Analyst, HSBC

Oh, thank you so much for sharing the store sales and different formats, Joey. If I observe, like, correctly, I actually also observed your per store number of employees declined by around 30% in between 2021 to 2019. If, like, I assume, like things are back to normal one day, it is actually there is a hope for like a labor cost productivity gain, like, to show, like, in your financial results. I'm not sure if that's.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

We-

Lina Yan
Analyst, HSBC

Like

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

We think.

Lina Yan
Analyst, HSBC

That's within your expectation. Yeah.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Labor profitability is an ongoing challenge. Back to 2015, 2016, we have 7,000+ stores. We have about 420 or 440,000 staff. Right now, we have 12,000 stores. We still only have 420,000 staff. That gives you a sense about it. During the lockdown of Shanghai, some stores are operating at 5-10 people, but this is not sustainable. That means our staff really putting every ounce of their energy. There will be some innovation coming out of this because we are pushing our thinking into sharing management across the stores, which is something that we learn from ourselves in our deliveries, rider sharing among few stores.

Some innovations will stay. To what extent, we are still in the process. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Take the next question. Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Just once again, if you can ask one question at a time. Thank you. Our next question will come from Xiaopo Wei at Citi. Please go ahead.

Xiaopo Wei
Director and Head of Asia-Pacific Consumer Research, Citi

Morning, Joey. My question is about the new business. I mean, we appreciate the great effort in the tough time in Q1, and we know that your sophisticated supply chain very agile digital capability impressed us again in the tough time. You did mention or prepare remarks about a group purchase, which is a very new model in Shanghai. Do you think this is gonna be a valid model to expanding into other part of China even if the COVID situation improves? That is first question. The second question for the market consolidation, usually we are seeing the tough time like COVID situation, always a good opportunity to consolidate market. We still remember that in the second quarter of 2020, post the first wave of COVID, you guys consolidated market immediately.

Presumably, the casual dining segment gonna be more consolidated post the COVID waves than the QSR. This referring to the Pizza Hut, where the investors have been focused a lot. Shall we say that your Pizza Hut business could be even more enjoy more advantage of market consolidation post this wave or Omicron wave versus previous one? There are the two questions. Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you, Xiaopo. The first question, community purchasing, we...

Operator

Unfortunately, it looks like Joey's line has dropped once again. Please stand by.

Xiaopo Wei
Director and Head of Asia-Pacific Consumer Research, Citi

Yeah.

Operator

While we reconnect her.

Xiaopo Wei
Director and Head of Asia-Pacific Consumer Research, Citi

Yeah. Well, while we connect Joey, let me address the second question, you know, which is, you know, about the consolidation opportunities in the marketplace. I think, you know, as we have mentioned on our capital allocation strategies, you know, obviously we have put a lot of emphasis on investing in CapEx to drive, you know, organic growth, and then also, you know, to build our strategic moat. Our preference, you know, for consolidation in marketplace is really, you know, through the expansions, you know, of our store network across all the brands. You know, we have, you know, the KFC, you know, quick service, restaurant business. We also have, you know, Pizza Hut in the western casual dining business. We also have COFFii & JOY and Lavazza in the coffee business.

We also have the Chinese food business. I think we already have a number of opportunities. As we mentioned, you know, today, we also, you know, have a joint, like a new announcement, arrangement with Yum! Brands to join a step-up investment to accelerate, you know, store network expansions here in China for Taco Bell. I think we already have a lot wonderful opportunity in coffees and taco and as well as the growing opportunities here with KFC and Pizza Hut. I think the main focus, the main drive for us, you know, for consolidating the market is really through the expansions and the growth of our homegrown organic brand. I see, you know, like, Joey is already back online.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Yeah.

Xiaopo Wei
Director and Head of Asia-Pacific Consumer Research, Citi

Joey, would you address the first question? Yeah.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

The community purchasing, Xiaopo, we of course share the best practice within the company. We get the scenario plan for whatever cities and province, if it's going to lockdown and or soft lockdown, we'll keep the options open. Right now, community purchase in Shanghai as the shopping becomes slightly easier, we can see the demand come down a little bit, which is a pretty good thing actually. But you know, at the worst time, we have 10-15 stores open in Shanghai, but as of right now, we have about 40% of our store open. We can still serve customer better with more stores open than just relying on community purchasing.

You know, it is sort of example of our agility and adaptability of our business model and our team. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jack Chen at CLSA. Please go ahead. Sorry, looks like Jack's dropped from the call. Our next question will come from Christine Peng at UBS. Please go ahead.

Christine Peng
Analyst, UBS

Thank you, management for answering the questions. I have a quick question regarding the cost-cutting measures. Given this prolonged and fluid situation about COVID restrictions and lockdown in China, I'm just wondering what kind of cost-cutting measures you know, management has put in place or consider putting into place to deal with this you know, situation. Also, I remember back in 2020, there were quite a few government grants given to Yum China during the COVID you know, period. Are there any government grants similar to 2020 that will be given to Yum China for the remaining of the year? Thank you.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Christine, let me, you know, address your questions regarding, you know, obviously, cost control and cost restraint. I think, you know, obviously we're looking at, you know, from a COS side, pretty strong inflationary pressure globally. We will continue to work with our supply chain, our long-term supply chain partner, to manage that. That will be including, you know, potentially longer term contract. We, as you mentioned before, you know, our contract usually lock in, you know, in a quarter or two ahead of time. We may proactively deal with that, you know, given the inflationary pressure.

For example, for coffee bean, we have locked up supply that contract that would last us to 2023, and that would help us to mitigate that. Obviously, not everything can be done like that. But I think we have a very smart, logical and supply chain folks here that have a lot of experience historically deal with different environment inflationary environment. Now, the other one is obviously the energy costs. Energy costs in China and globally also gone up. As we mentioned, two to five days up 10%. That then we are also implementing. That's why we invest in technology.

We have and we continue to invest in technologies that would help us to reduce energy consumption. You know, so hopefully, you know, that will pay off in the long term. The other one is, you know, we will continue to deploy technologies across our supply chain to make sure that we, you know, both have the flexibility to deal with, you know, different potential scenarios, but also make them more efficient. I think it's paying off as we see, you know, in the current situations, we're able to very flexibly to redesign, you know, the supply chain network, the routings and using both rail and sea freight to flexibly manage our logistic operations.

We also, you know, we see technology being employed in, you know, store operations in the back office. So, you know, the labor productivity improvement in the long run should be helped by, you know, our investment in technology. Now, all in all, obviously, it is, you know, in terms of margins or costs, the biggest driver is actually sales. We will continue to focus on, you know, obviously, our CRM program, digital program, and then, you know, bottom-up marketing to drive sales. Then, finally, we'll continue to look at our innovations in product design, you know, and how to best utilize, you know, the resources that we have. For example, whole chicken versus, you know, some of the parts.

So, those are the sort of like, you know, the way we look at the cost base. And then also in the longer term, obviously we're looking at, you know, see potentially we structure some of the cost base, including rent and rental relief, as you mentioned. In 2022, in the first quarter, you know, there's, you know, the government launched, you know, some relief program for COVID, but mostly it's addressed to small, medium enterprises. We will continue to work with the government and see, you know, if we can, you know, qualify for some of those programs. But I think for the most part, those programs are aimed at small to medium enterprises.

For rent relief, I will continue to work with, you know, the landlord, not only for rental relief but also in the longer term, as you mentioned. We don't target a particular growth number for our store, but we like to have quality store open. We would continue to work with the landlord to make sure that, you know, our rental cost structure is, you know, competitive in the long run, and that's most important. Thank you. Thank you, Christine.

Christine Peng
Analyst, UBS

Thank you, Andy. I just want to make sure the previous, you know, guidance about the commodity costs and labor costs increase for 2022 will not change despite all the volatilities we have seen in the past two to three months globally.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

I think, you know, there will be some changes, but I think the biggest driver for operating margin, as I mentioned, is sales leveraging and deleveraging. The other part is obviously, you know, the inflationary pressures. You know, some of these commodity prices have been more stable. Some are in line with our expectation, but some of these is actually very jumping very high right now. If you look at, you know, for example, poultry and pork, they're relatively in line with our expectation. You know, if you look at beef, you look at other commodities, they have surged quite a bit. And then also if you look at energy costs also go up. For example, cooking oil and all that is being impacted.

All in all, I think, you know, like as we mentioned, you know, those are the small factor, but the sales leveraging is the biggest factor.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you, Andy.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Sure.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bryan Wang at China Merchants Securities. Please go ahead.

Bryan Wang
Equity Research Associate, China Merchants Securities

Hi, Joey. Basically, I want to understand within your P&L, you know, how much of your costs are for the cost of goods sold and also the restaurant costs, you know, are fixed or how much of them are still variable? Because, you know, when I see your P&L, I can see that the rent currently accounts for around 30%. Then I wonder that, you know, rent accounts for how much of the margin based on a share of the store sales. Thank you so much.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Brian, you know, I think your line was coming in and out, but I guess your question is about, you know, costs, and in particular, variable costs versus, you know, fixed costs.

Bryan Wang
Equity Research Associate, China Merchants Securities

Yeah. Yeah.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

I think, as I mentioned before, you know, obviously the key cost structure for us, you know, COS. COS is largely variable costs, you know, is the raw input and paper and packaging for our product. And then COL, you know, we have a hybrid model. Obviously, we have full-time workers, and then we also have a large part-time workforce that, you know, on a more flexible scheduling basis. In terms of, you know, O&O, as you mentioned, you know, the rent, a big part of a large percentage of the current rent control, 80% of that have a variable component to it.

You know, in terms of dollars, is probably, you know, depending on the sales, obviously, because it's variable. So number of times maybe 40%-50% of that, you know, about 50% or so at this time, about it's variable for rent. Then we also have, you know, obviously marketing expenditure and all that, you know, we can flex around that. So your overall cost structure, I think it's fair to say that, you know, majority of our costs are flexible, variable. But we also have a very large portions of them is fixed, including, you know, our G&A expenses, for example, salary for our headquarters staff, logistics operations, and then, you know, the fixed cost in the rental.

You know, sales leveraging is real for our business and, you know, and as we have mentioned over and over again. But we, as we mentioned before, we're doing a lot of things to control costs in the near term, but also looking into a longer term structure. For example, you know, like G&A and, you know, in the short term may be impacted by, you know, sales leveraging, de-leveraging. And then in the long term, our goal is we will keep G&A growth to be below, you know, sales growth, for example. That's overall, you know, our things. Same for COL.

You know, we'll use technology, and improve our process and store format, et cetera, to make sure that, you know, in the long haul, you know, our labor productivities, you know, are in a good trend. Thank you. Thank you, Brian.

Bryan Wang
Equity Research Associate, China Merchants Securities

Thank you.

Operator

Our final question comes from Jack Chen at CLSA. Please go ahead.

Jack Chen
Analyst, CLSA

Thanks, Joey and Andy, for taking my questions. I'm sorry that my line just didn't work. My question is regarding on Taco Bell brand strategy, 'cause this brand has entered China market for years but still in small size. As we are planning to have over 100 Taco Bell stores by this year, could you please share us more about how we're going to develop this brand to benchmark with KFC and Pizza Hut? Since the COVID hit several big cities in China, if this trend continues, we want to know how it will impact our store opening as such as maybe we can only find the store locations in low-tier cities and less impacted regions. Thank you.

Joey Wat
CEO, Yum China

Thank you. Thank you, Jack. We, you know, we looked at this Taco Bell opportunity in over a very long time. If we look at, let's say Pizza Hut, we are already in 700 cities, and only in 700 cities out of 2,700 cities, and KFC is in 1,700 cities. If we in the coming few years want to open at least 225 stores and honestly it's not that.

Operator

Unfortunately, we've.

Andy Yeung
CFO, Yum China

Like, Joey has dropped off the line. I would just, you know, supplement what Joey is mentioning. Obviously we have looked into the Taco Bell business for a number of years. As we mentioned, we see a lot of opportunities, not only for our existing brand, KFC, Pizza Hut to penetrate, but obviously for Taco Bell too, you know, 225 million new stores by 2025. You know, it's an ambitious target that is not an overstretching target. If we look at the reason why we're confident about sort of stepping it up, obviously we have experimented with the brand quite a bit, with the format, different format and whatnot.

I think some of the pilot testing that we have earlier, you know, to make us more efficient and flexible, you know, are showing some very, you know, encouraging signs, especially for the newer, smaller format, you know, which is about 1-2 square meters and with, you know, lower capital expenditure and with a simplified menu. I think, you know, if you look at, you know, the store performance, you know, that give us, you know, quite a bit of encouragement in terms of expanding the store network there. Again, you know, like, we obviously, you know, it's really important for us, you know, with any store opening is the discipline process.

We do apply disciplined process with the small store format and a new format for Taco Bell as well. In terms of Taco Bell, I think we've seen that in the urban top-tier cities, pretty popular with younger generations, you know, that they are more open to trying out new good food, you know. If you look at during the lockdown periods, you know, the brand also did quite well, you know, with the product offering as well as the delivery coverage. We're excited with the Taco initiative.

You know, over the next few years you should see more growth in that brand. Then we would, you know, obviously step up investment with Taco Bell International to drive that store network growth. Thank you.

Bryan Wang
Equity Research Associate, China Merchants Securities

Thank you, Andy.

Florence Lip
Senior Director of Investor Relations, Yum China

Thank you for joining the call today. We look forward to speaking with you on the next earnings call. Sorry about the connection. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you so much. This does conclude the call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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