Thank you. I'm here with Zoetis, Wetteny Joseph, the CFO. So let's kick this off. Let's get on industry. How should investors think about long-term trends in veterinary medicine and production animal? Should the slow visits in 2022 and 2023 concern investors at all in the near and longer term?
Look, when I think about the industry long term, we've seen some really strong tailwinds that are really secular growth trends that we expect to continue long term. The prioritization and value on pet health and seeing the pet as a member of the family. And we've seen studies like the Human Animal Bond Research Institute did about a year and a half ago, 13,000 pet owners, and essentially they see the pet as a member of their family, and 86% of them said, "So we'll spend whatever it takes if our pet needs extensive veterinary care." So I think those are things that underpin a lot of what we've seen over the years, not just during the pandemic, but long before the pandemic, that are continuing to really drive growth across the industry.
Then there's innovation that's helping to address unmet needs that continues to drive that, right? So that's long term, how we see the pet care side, pet health across not just the U.S. and Western Europe, but across even emerging markets also. On the production animal side, it's a slightly different dynamic, right? You've had a lot of productivity driven by innovation over the years, and there's continued to be investments to drive innovation in this space, but a slightly different customer that's looking at the economics and what is the risk profile of their animals.
But overall, there's a long-term need for healthy animal protein that's driven not only, again, in the Western markets like the U.S. and Western Europe, et cetera, but across the emerging markets, where you're seeing a growing middle class and more and want more access to animal proteins. And growing population over the next, you know, call it 27 or so years, the expectation is that there will be 2 billion more people walking the planet. And so that's going to continue to drive a need here. And we see that end of the business in a sort of that 2%-4% long-term growth rate expectation as we look beyond. That's been the level it's been at over the years as well.
Those are the two big underpinnings if you look at, you know, sort of, what's driving trends long term.
Gotcha. In terms of 2023 visits, what degree of confidence do you have that the market is indeed labor constrained and maybe not necessarily demand constrained? And if that's the case, if it's labor constrained, you know, should we see labor markets starting to weaken? Should we see - do we see a potential for growth again in visits in 2024?
Yeah, look, I think if you step back and you look at visits and what they've meant for the industry, I'd just like to put it in context for a second. Our industry has grown between 5% and 6% over the last decade. That includes companion animal and livestock. So livestock growing slower than companion animals. So companion animals growing faster than the 5%-6%. And visit growth has been about 1% per year. So this is an industry that certainly visit growth is part of it, but it's not the biggest driver, and it's the innovation and the higher prioritization on pet health. Those are the things that are driving the industry growth, by and large. Now, having said that, we saw visits really increase significantly in 2021.
So the quarter we just ended, for example, had about 73 million visits in it, right? If you go back to 2019, the same quarter had 72, so it's about 1 million more. But in 2021, it was 76. So you had a big increase in visits that drove a lot of activity in the clinic and was a contribution to turnover in the clinics as well. And so as they've gone back and gotten a lot more stable in terms of their labor, they've also adjusted their hours to some extent and have driven a little bit more, I would say, work-life balance across the clinics. And so it's still hard to get a visit in most clinics around the country, right? And you see that too in the U.K. and Western Europe areas.
So by far, what we're seeing is a matter of capacity in the vet clinic, more so than any sort of macro-related element that we're seeing. But that's not to say there's not some macro in here, right? That would be unrealistic, looking at the dynamics. However, they start to impact things that are a lot more discretionary first, whether it's grooming or certain type of pet foods or what have you, those things get impacted. Maybe some of the, I would say, wellness-type visits might get impacted more. So if you're wholly a diagnostics, you might see some impact from wellness versus, you know, sick visits, if you will.
Yeah.
And then by the time you get to our portfolio, we have a lot of products that are treating chronic conditions. Dermatology, for example. You don't treat your pet for that when you have been. You're going to see them itch a lot more, some all the way to the point of bleeding themselves, right?
Mm-hmm.
So you're not going to stop a treatment that certainly is impacting their quality of life or a pain, which are products we've been launching over the last couple of years outside the U.S. and have now launched in the U.S. These are chronic conditions that you can visibly see very clearly.
Mm-hmm.
So we don't see as much of any impact on that end of the market. And then retail has gotten to be a bigger contribution as well, which continues to drive that. So in addition to what you see in the clinic, you have to factor the impact of retail, which is also helping to drive growth for us.
It's actually a perfect segue into the next question, because, you know, I think a lot of your business actually doesn't necessarily require a visit, but it does require a script. With that in mind, how do you think you would see, you know, maybe impacts to scripts if you see flat growth? Would there be any impacts in maybe, say, next year, scripts?
Look, I think as I've said just now, I think the things that are more chronic type conditions or that are very visible, we don't see those having any impact in terms of what how they get treated, and the need for a vet to be involved to write a script. And whether that gets fulfilled in the clinic or on the retail side, you know, we're seeing that impact, which has been positive for the business. In fact, even with visits being down 1.5% in the third quarter, although keep in mind, there was one less day in the third quarter this year than the year before, but nonetheless, 1.5% down. We still had volume growth across, not only in the clinics, but obviously in retail as well.
So we continue to see, whether you link that back to the scripts that are being written or what have you, but there's still volume growth for us, even in a down clinic visit, which goes back to my prior answer as well.
Gotcha. I actually gonna move on to Q4 guidance and what assumption is or can you help us ballpark the assumption on companion animal growth in that quarter? Keeping in mind, I think you do have a comp and care to quantify what the stocking was before your price increases in 2023?
Yeah.
Early 2023.
Look, we've been very pleased with the performance, particularly if you look at this last quarter, 8% growth, very balanced and broad-based across our portfolio, across our geographic markets, et cetera. So that resiliency in our business and diversification is certainly something you see come through with that performance. And by the way, after the first quarter where we did see the destocking you referred to, and I'll get to that in a second, we said you would expect to see consistent growth across the rest of the year, and you saw us +9% operational growth in the second quarter, 8% operational growth in the third, which leaves you basically a seven-ish, if you just do the math to get to the full year guidance, which we just tightened around the same midpoint we started back in February.
So despite everything that's happened this year, we're still looking at a guidance that's very consistent operationally with where we started, you know, back at the start of the year. So, so that gives us a lot of confidence in terms of what we're looking at across the year. Now, to exit the year, livestock has been growing on a year-to-date basis through Q3, 6% operational, and we're saying livestock will be low single-digit growth for the year. So clearly, there'll be a step down, and that's largely a comp point, to your point earlier, with respect to the timing of supply that we had in 2022 versus what that means for 2023.
But we're expecting to see a strong growth from companion animal, offsetting that again to land us into this guidance that we just issued with the third quarter results. And so we have high confidence in that, and here we are. We're pretty far along into the quarter. We only have one month left in the U.S. and are about to wrap up the quarter internationally. So certainly those are the things that we see in the business. So that does translate to a down quarter for livestock-
Mm-hmm.
But, companion animal essentially growing double digits to land us, where we said.
Just in terms of pricing and, that comping, I mean, I think, you know, generally in speaking, we're still in an inflationary environment that is above historical norm. And so as we move into 2024, I mean, I would probably guess that some of your prices will be up, above historical norm, just given where we are at inflation, where we are with veterinary inflation. Is there any chance you could see some stocking behavior, say, in Q4 in anticipation of that? Or do you think they've really gotten normalized with, you know, it's not gonna be anywhere near 2023, so maybe they don't need to do that this year?
Look, we won't get into too deep into 2024, but as we exit this year... By the way, there's typically some stocking that happens at the end of each year. So 2022, late year wasn't unique in that there was some stocking that was done pre-price buy-ups wide. There were some additional contributions to it because we had some supply constraints earlier in the year that kept us from running promotions that included our Trio product in the third quarter. So we had to include those and emphasize them in the fourth quarter, more so. So that did cause some impact here. But in terms of pre-price buying, that happens almost every year. The question is, is it going to be... Last year was a higher level than you would typically see. Will this year be more on average?
A little bit too early to say. I think from a pricing standpoint, we've been running, you know, somewhere around 4 or 5%, this year and last year. Typically, we're closer to a 2 or 3%. But look, I think we'll come back with more detail as we come into February, but I think you can suffice it to say we'll be somewhere between those two ends, if that helps at all, because as you said, there's still a, I would say, an inflationary environment out there, and we have consistently and systematically taken price every year. That is something we have done in the market, not just in these inflationary times, and so customers have come to expect that behavior from us as we look at next year.
Checks on Librela have been great. I mean, every clinic I've talked to is excited about it. They think it's gonna bring in patients. I actually think this could be one of the biggest first-year products, in the U.S. launches of all time. That would be my guess. I think you're ready to supply the market. Do you think this could be the biggest potential selling product of all time in animal health?
Well, look, I think there are a lot of things that we look at, particularly if you go back and see how the product performed in its first year in Europe, despite the supply constraints that we had there, and we don't have those here in the U.S. as we launch. By the way, across our monoclonal antibodies, we don't have any supply constraints to speak of. So whether you look at Solensia, which is arthritis pain for cats, Librela, OA for dogs, or Cytopoint on the derm side, starting about this time last year, we've really been out of allocations and able to supply the market to demand.
So we're anticipating the demand here, and, you know, I won't, I won't say how big of a launch it'll be compared to historical, et cetera, but it certainly was in Europe, the fastest ramp to a blockbuster, I think, that we've seen, historically. So that's very encouraging with the launch here in the U.S. And it's still early, but certainly, as you said, the qualitative indications we're getting from vets and pet owners, et cetera, have been very, very positive. So we're very pleased with how things are going so far.
Gotcha. You know, I don't—I know you don't wanna give up all of your strategy here, but can you talk about some of the portfolio benefits that you could see with Librela? I mean, BI just launched a parasiticide. Elanco is gonna negotiate with a new parasiticide and probably a dermatology product. How strong of a position do you think you are with Librela saying, "You know what? We, you know, we're not just... We're not just negotiating on parasiticides in a Trio, we're also launching in a portfolio effect.
Look, if you ask vets what are the products that are most important to them in their practice, I think you won't be surprised to see a number of Zoetis products up on top of that list. And so I think that's something that vets value, and that's something that when you look at our corporate relationships in particular, et cetera, those are things that we value as well. So that creates some room for us to work with our customers in a way that benefits their practices and certainly drive our agenda in terms of the innovation that we're coming out with. Now, how much and how far we can take that varies depending on markets, right?
So U.S. is one thing, Europe is something else, and different markets, et cetera, without getting into the super detail here. But certainly, the importance of our products to their practices is something that we value, and we value those relationships as well. We have, you know, strong relationships with corporates that I think will go a long way towards what you're talking about.
Can you talk about how you use distribution and how you might use distribution ahead of a launch of a competitive JAK? Does Elanco hiring sales, or additional sales people, you know, influence your use of distribution? Do you think they'll be relying heavily on distribution?
Look, these are factors that we look at and evaluate from time to time. I think when I look at derm, first of all, there's still a lot of room to grow in derm, and you've seen the growth rate even a decade later, after we launched the product. You're seeing really strong growth, not only in the U.S., but across international markets, and so we're going to continue to put DTC and other factors behind those to drive growth there. To me, offense is always the best defense and the first defense, so that's where we're going.
The second thing I would say is, long before you get into how you look at your distribution strategy, I think you have to look at your other portfolio, and what you're doing and how those might help you in a competitive scenario. So, for example, you have Apoquel. You have now an Apoquel Chewable product, which is an important addition in lifecycle innovation, which we launched across European markets a year ago. And we're now launching, by the way, Apoquel Chewable at the same time that we're doing Librela in the U.S. That's an important lever, I think, in terms of how we look at that. And then you have Cytopoint, where we have historically been constrained, just like other mAbs, particularly during the years of, you know, human vaccine production for COVID.
We weren't able to get some of those inputs, like the single-use bags and other things that we need for producing. So we're not able to capitalize on the full demand profile for Cytopoint, for example. That now is not the case. We are able to do that, and that becomes another lever in terms of how we go about, derm, on that front. And then there's pricing and so on. And then there's distribution, right? So there are lots of ways for us to look at this, depending on what, what the competition looks like, depending on what the label looks like. I mean, we have a decade on Apoquel. We have 7 or 8 years on Cytopoint. That's a lot of dogs have been treated with our products, and the safety profile speaks for itself.
So there's a lot for us to look at without getting into too quickly into how do we do the distribution, but that is a factor we think about.
Got it. You know, yeah, that maybe is a good segue into the fact that Zoetis has really punched above its weight in terms of blockbusters. Why has Zoetis been kind of uniquely ahead of everyone else when it comes to blockbusters?
Look, I think when we... I've been at Zoetis now for about 2.5 years. I've really come to appreciate that there are multiple elements to what drives our success. I think the first one is truly understanding the species and understanding the disease state. There's a lot of work that's done through our R&D organization and our external partners to get underneath those in a way that's meaningful, because our intent is to drive meaningful impact when we do launch products, in terms of efficacy and clearly balancing that with safety to make an impact on animals and their health. So it starts there. And then there's the commercial organization, who are always involved from the very beginning around what are the needs from customers and what's gonna drive traction, et cetera.
And then there's the ability to scale those and continue to grow and develop those markets long after we've launched the product. To me, the success of the company isn't just in what's done in R&D and then what's done in terms of scaling it, but long after that, continuing to drive awareness in terms of patients and understanding of vets and what the mechanism of action is, and what are the applications and how much of an impact we can make. So years later, you continue to see the benefit of those things, including in derm, for example, where we're now north of $1.3 billion and continuing to see really strong growth. So I think it's really developing those markets is what's driving the success for us.
Gotcha. Now, at your Investor Day, you showed new drugs in chronic kidney disease, cardiometabolic, oncology. How should we think about innovation long term at Zoetis? In terms of when Librela does start to slow down, should we be thinking about a new product filling in the gap and when it hits kind of peak sales?
Look, I think if you, if you heard from Rob, during the Investor Day at the end of May, we have the biggest spend in terms of R&D in our space, right? You know, call it $600 million. And there's a balance between lifecycle innovation and net new innovation that we go after. And the intent is to drive consistent delivery of products and growth for the business, and there's a track record of doing that. Now, you know, what is the rhythm? Is it, you know, big blockbuster and then lifecycle, lifecycle, and then blockbuster, or how does that work? I think that might vary from time to time, but the intent is to drive a consistent delivery and consistent growth.
So I think when you think about lifecycle innovation, which is about, on average, 50% of our focus and our spend, that is meaningful for us, as well. So whether it's examples like I just described a moment ago with Apoquel Chewable, or some of the long-acting elements for products that we already have in the portfolio, but we have long-acting elements of them in our pipeline, et cetera. Those are the things that will continue to drive for us, in addition to the net new innovations. And the examples you gave are three that we shared during Investor Day, which clearly are areas that are among the highest unmet needs when you think about the companion animal space across the world.
No surprise, we're intently working on those and are moving things along, be it through discovery and into our development, et cetera. So we feel great about what those are and the potential for them to be the next big blockbusters or billion-dollar franchises, or markets that we can influence and drive. So we're excited about the work that we're doing on those. Not gonna get into any more detail, any more specificity around timing for those, and how they might fit with Librela, for example, but we're just getting going with Librela. We said between Librela and Solensia, those two OA pain products for cats and dogs, will be north of $1 billion at peak.
So it takes 3-5 years to get to what we're calling peak. And by the way, that's not the end of growth for those products, right? We're posting double-digit growth in derm 10 years later. So these products will continue to grow. We'll continue to drive market development on those products and market expansion for those products. But in that 3-5-year timeframe, we're talking north of $1 billion. So if you lay that out over what that means for 2024, which we're not prepared to talk about exactly yet, but 2024, 2025, 2026, that does take you a ways. And then you can see, okay, is it a life cycle or multiple life cycle innovation items that are gonna enter during that time, or towards the end of that time? Or is it some net new innovation? We'll see.
We'll give some more details as we get closer to those.
Got it. Well, one of the things I think people do underestimate is the portfolio potential for Librela. So, in talking to veterinarians, one of the concepts is, if you get a dog that's over 10 in the clinic monthly, how many different conditions are you gonna find and be able to treat? Is that kind of something that you think might be underappreciated, and would that fit well with chronic kidney disease, cardiometabolic drugs, or is there any other kind of drugs you could think of that could see benefits that's currently in your portfolio from Librela?
Yeah, look, I think that's an element that we believe can have an impact. I won't size it here or say how underappreciated it might be, but we do think there's an element of this. And it's also true on the cat side, right? I mean, coming out with Solensia as a way to treat OA pain in cats, it gives a reason for a cat to show up in a clinic consistently, month after month. Which, you know, it has its own challenges in terms of pet owners getting them into a cage, and in a crate, and getting them to the clinic, and all that. But if you have something that treats something important and serious for them, then that starts to bring them in. So that may have carryover for other treatments and other products and diagnostics, et cetera.
So we do believe that there's more effects of those type of things. And then between the two products too, you know, we knew Solensia was gonna be a slower upfront, because you don't have the same level of protocol execution for OA pain in a cat as you do in dogs. But as Librela takes hold, then clinics are getting more and more practice of executing their their protocol and their screening for dogs, and that should also carry for cats potentially. It's not just across other therapeutic areas, but it's also within across species within the same therapeutic area, if you will, that we'll look to see how those things play out.
Yeah, well, one of the, And now going to production animal, I think it's actually been one of the only maybe, less than bright spots in, in the Zoetis portfolio, if you look at, like, the last five years in terms of growth. Is the Draxxin headwind finally over? And is the You know, with the growth you've seen this year, it seems like maybe you're back to normal in terms of industry growth. Can we see that continue and maybe above market growth, throwing- I'm gonna throw in that GLP-1 question. Would that be maybe one of the offsets that would see, you know, some of that, you know, back-to-normal growth, maybe?
Well, I won't go all the way there on GLP-1. I think it's too early to tell what impacts that may have in terms of protein consumption and all that kind of stuff. So I'll leave that one alone. But I think if you step back and look at livestock, this is a market that's growing around 3 or 4%. Historically, it's been around that. You've had times with ASF hitting China that impacted it, and then you had to rebuild the herd and all that. So there are some cycles that you go through, but overall, it's a consistent 3%-4% growth if you look at how it's performing, how we expect it to perform as we look out into the future.
The last couple of years, particularly in 2021 and 2022, were the peak, I would say, impact or headwind for Draxxin for us. There's some for the Zoamix as well, which is also another one, that had, implications over the last couple of years. We're now, having gone through the first two years, as we said all along, those would be the more, impactful two years. I wouldn't say it's completely over, to your question, but the impact is far less than what we would have experienced relative to the overall portfolio the last couple of years. And we started to see, even with some impact for Draxxin this year, you're seeing a return to growth for livestock in 2023.
Again, won't go into details or specifics for what that means for 2024 exactly, but I do believe with most of the impact on Draxxin, even if it's not all out, most of it behind us, the delta between our performance and the market will be a lot less than it has been over the last two or three years. Right.
Gotcha. So you've been at Zoetis for two and a half years. What have been the biggest positive and negative surprises in your mind?
Look, it's the point I made earlier around what makes us successful and how all these pieces come together, not only what's happening in R&D, but how well that's linked to our commercial teams and understanding truly what the customers need and what the patient needs are. And then, the scaling that we do in our manufacturing organization, all our colleagues working to do that, to deliver mAbs at scale in animal health, which is something, you know, in my prior life, I didn't think was even possible. So I'm seeing it right before me, and not only that, but seeing that there's so much more potential out there to leverage that as a platform for other unmet needs. Those have been the most positive things that I've experienced.
All right. Oh, well, tried the gotcha on the negative side, but- ... It's okay.
We ran out of time.