All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our next session. My name is Andrew Strelzik. I cover the beverage restaurants and agribusiness stocks for BMO, and appropriately, after the last speaker talking about clean ingredients, I'm pleased to be joined by Zevia, a better-for-you beverage company, and with us today from the company, we have CEO Amy Taylor and CFO Girish Satya, so thank you both for joining us. Maybe just to start, for those, if there are some who are not familiar with the brand in the audience, if you could just kind of talk about the brand, what differentiates it, and those things.
Zevia is really the clean label, truly zero-sugar soda that tastes great at an accessible price point, which is super important because we do a great job in society of making better-for-you products for rich people. We like to put products on shelf that are accessible for the majority of households across America. We like to make them clean label, great tasting, zero sugar, as I mentioned. This is in the midst of a macro trend away from sugar. For much of the population, there's a big trend toward clean label products. We're a trusted brand across that opportunity. It's a massive TAM soda. We are still in single-digit household penetration, representing a tremendous upside. We're in about 37,000 stores today. We just 5x'd our distribution at Walmart just over these last several weeks, now nationally distributed at the world's largest retailer.
They've put in a set called Modern Soda, which kind of sets a precedent about how are people thinking about how much soda is evolving. We're proud to be on the forefront of what is really a changing, exciting category. We're also proud to serve what is, we believe, today's and tomorrow's primary consumer for soda in the future.
I was going to go from there to marketing. But you did pre-announce or revise some guidance metrics for the fourth quarter. And marketing was relevant to that discussion. So maybe we'll pause and discuss that for a minute. Can you talk about what you put out today? Talk a little bit about the trends that you've seen here recently.
Sure, so maybe Girish can talk about the announcement we made, and I can talk a little bit on the marketing details.
Yeah. So we announced today that we hit sort of the upper end of our guidance range at $39.5 million from a revenue perspective. But really, the big takeaway was that we decided to spend incremental marketing dollars at the end of Q4. Really, I think the marketing team had done a great job of really sort of nailing a spot that went viral. And so given the big jump in distribution at Walmart, we thought this was a unique opportunity and really a unique one-time opportunity to sort of invest in TV to really sort of drive brand awareness and ultimately drive household penetration. And so we took a calculated risk and made an incremental investment in marketing, thus driving the quarter's losses lower than what we had originally guided. And so that was really the crux of the announcement.
But again, part of what we've been doing over the last year is really driving efficiencies throughout the P&L. We are cash flow positive this year. We've continued to take out millions and millions of dollars out of the cost structure. And so the reason for doing that is to give ourselves that flexibility in when and if we do find opportunities to incrementally invest. We did. And so that was really the nature of the announcement.
Was there anything else besides marketing in there that created that?
It was really all marketing.
I know that this was the first quarter kind of out of the gate in which you had provided EBITDA guidance. Just given the revision, can you just maybe update how you think about guidance metrics on a go-forward basis? Do you expect to change that policy at all?
Yeah. We don't expect to change it. I mean, I think, again, as noted, this was a one-time impact given by or driven, rather, by a really interesting viral marketing campaign that the marketing team had crafted. And so we felt that it was imperative as we try to balance the short term with the long term, because at the end of the day, we really have to restart this revenue engine. And we thought this was a really interesting way to kind of do that. And Q4 was the first time we've returned to growth. And we've alluded to returning to growth in 2025. And so this is part of that approach.
And Andrew, it's a rare moment when a spot actually goes viral and viral gets thrown around a lot. But I mean, actually, statistically, quantitatively viral. So we found our voice now leaning on humor and kind of parody and a little bit of satire, poking fun at artificiality as a brand that brings the realness as kind of the radically real people's champion. And I think that positioning is really best manifest in the spot if you all have seen it. But we took a little bit of a poke, a little bit of fun at the big red and white guys and their holiday campaign, which leaned entirely on AI. And we think people are a little concerned about artificiality in content and artificiality in beverage.
So, what a tremendous platform for us to have a little bit of fun with that, but then follow up with very clear positioning. And that was what was cool is what consumers and the media said back to us was, "wow, Zevia's positioning as the clean label, trustworthy, tasty, naturally delicious soda was crystal clear through the lens of this light-hearted, fun sort of parody spot." So when that went viral through a digital spend, we made the very clear decision to buy linear television, so College Football Playoffs and NFL, and expand on our number one priority, which is driving brand awareness. So we're really bullish on this decision in December, setting us up for incremental reach and follow-on campaigns at the start of 2025.
And so kind of bigger picture on marketing, this is a big pivot, right? Historically, not a heavily marketed brand, I guess, especially in those mediums. So as you go forward, how do you think about the appropriate channels, the appropriate spend, balancing the different opportunities to continue to grow brand awareness for the brand?
I mean, I'll remind us that our number one priority is brand awareness. And why? Because that top-of-funnel investment is what leads down to ultimately growing household penetration. So our priorities are around marketing and growing awareness and then distribution and driving penetration. So this was really a moment in time for us to move on that. The most effective and efficient sort of repeated always-on platform for us in marketing is digital. But we'll opportunistically use out-of-home or use television for advertising where it makes sense. Social is a big vehicle for us. If you're new to Zevia, I would invite you to check out Instagram and TikTok channels where I think you can really see that parody come to life, that satirical brand, but with a light-hearted twinkle in the eye. There was an article that said our tone lands somewhere between Ryan Reynolds and Liquid Death.
And I think that's about right. You'll see us also activate sponsorships. So we have a relationship with a guy named Josh Pate, who is the number one podcaster in college football. He loves Zevia. We find these authentic, convinced users of our product and turn them on as a partner to talk about the usage occasions where our product is relevant, to talk about our new distribution at Walmart, and to continue to reach new consumers. So that's a little bit of a taste of how we go from advertising to social to organic sponsorship and activation of the brand to grow awareness.
OK. And you mentioned the distribution aspirations. And you talked about the fourth quarter being a return to growth and the distribution gains at Walmart. So can you talk about how that has gone so far and more broadly some of the key distribution opportunities kind of over the next several years and holes that you see?
Yeah. So we're broadly distributed in grocery. We're broadly distributed and leading in the natural channel. That's where we came from. This step change in mass channel distribution and specifically in Walmart is really a precedent setter, not just because we're now going to be in over 4,200 Walmarts, but because Walmart has chosen to create a set called Modern Soda, which sort of presents to a potentially younger shopper today and in the future another option for soda. We think this is a change that's here to stay. And we think that Walmart's decision will have an impact on other retailers as they think about how they collect the better-for-you soda set and arrange that on shelf. So we're excited about the impact that the Walmart decision will have on grocery business and others.
We are broadly distributed in the drug channel as well, now newly in all three national chains. And there's upside for Zevia as well because we are today a multi-pack business. And as we develop our route to market and our singles business, convenience remains an opportunity. So we'll continue to support and grow our business at Walmart in the mass channel. We have upside in club as we grow the number of regions that are selling club. And there's a lot of volume to be had there. And then strategically, over the long run, think about both a new revenue stream as well as a tremendous driver of trial and new users is convenience and other single-serve environments like food service.
I believe it was on the last earnings call you used the term quality distribution, which I don't know if that was an intentional phrase or a shift. Can you talk about how the approach to distribution is evolving, if it is at all?
Sure. Yeah. I mean, we're playing the long game. And each time we enter a new channel or work with a new customer, we want to make sure velocities are strong and that we build on that distribution. So when I say quality distribution, what I mean is that we're going to enter each new point of distribution thoughtfully and make sure that we can support it. So we're excited about being in Walmart's, which puts you inside of 10 miles of every household in America. We've got 10 flavors there plus a variety pack, so 11 SKUs. But what's our focus? A 360 activation of marketing to ensure that we drive velocity there. And that's how we're thoughtful about each new quality point of distribution. So it's about growing sustainable distribution, not growing distribution too fast, thus that you're in a defensive position.
Given the rising tide that is better-for-you beverage, we think we're very well suited to do that.
One of the topics that gets a lot of investor interest is on the DSD side, and you're in the early phases of kind of the rollout there. Can you talk about how that's gone, the strategy, and kind of the checkpoints as you continue to roll that out?
Sure. So just very quickly, the two reasons to be in DSD, route to market, or direct store delivery, one would be to be competitive with merchandising in our existing footprint. So fight for space, drive display, drive frequency in merchandising, and make sure we're never out of stock. The second reason to do it is to unlock the ability to distribute singles both in our existing footprint as well as unlock new channel distribution and convenience. So those are the reasons to be in DSD. But we're not going to turn that on and do it nationally across all channels. Instead, we've executed DSD with great partners in the Northwest, gathering a lot of learnings, overperforming versus rest of market in grocery as an example. And now we've recently announced that we're piloting the same in the Southwest, starting with Crescent Crown in Arizona.
We're bullish on what we'll learn. We look forward to gaining some regional convenience players this year through our DSD partners. And route to market will be determined by some of the learnings here, a part of which will be DSD. We imagine a hybrid route to market for the future.
OK. That makes sense. One of the things that's always kind of stood out to me about the brand is the attractive price points for a premium product where you typically would see premium prices. And that tends not to be the case for you guys. So can you talk about kind of the pricing strategy, the promotional activity that you see in the category, how you guys respond to that and deal with those types of things?
Yeah. Yeah, I think you're right. We do have a very attractive price point. And I think for those of you that don't know, we're priced at a slight premium to conventional soda, but at a significant discount to sort of the broader better-for-you category. And so I think over time, there is a material opportunity to improve our price pack architecture while maintaining that price value proposition, but doing so in a meaningfully creative way. And so over time, I think there's a lot of room to run on pricing. I think from a promotion standpoint, beverages have historically highly promotional category. And I think one of the underappreciated elements of the growth and gross margin has been we've also returned promotion to historic levels and what we believe to be much more competitive levels. 2024 was marked by a lot of experimentation with new promotional strategies.
And I think 2025 is really about taking those learnings and really deploying a much more effective promotional strategy. And so I think our promotion spend's at a really good place. It's really well within the bounds of what we believe to be competitive and healthy. And I think we're really at the beginning stages of really unlocking a lot more pricing opportunity in the long run.
Before we shift gears to more of the margin story, obviously, a lot of the focus is on soda. You do have a broader portfolio than that. So when we think about things like tea and energy drink, how do we think about those as a composition of the portfolio, the strategies to drive growth around that kind of longer term?
Yeah. I mean, energy and tea both represent opportunity for us for the future. But we're laser-focused on soda and building our soda franchise and realizing the full opportunity, being famous for our clean label, great tasting soda. And then as that is established, we will invest in a side project like energy drinks, which today offers great margins, does well for us in the natural channel, and also is strong in e-commerce. So there's a lot of upside for us to be able to activate those categories after we've completed the work around our first priority, which is soda.
Understood. So again, shifting gears to margins, productivity gains have been a real bright spot of the story in recent quarters. That is even with some of the volatility on the top line. So can you walk through some of the key drivers, what's changed on that front to achieve those margin gains?
Yeah, and so when we had initially sort of discussed sort of the cost-out targets of 8-12, and now we've taken that up to 15, really it came from a third from COGS, a third from selling and warehousing, and a third from G&A. And so really what we've been able to do is really drive a lot of procurement and savings on input costs. So between procurement and sort of SKU rationalization, we've really been able to drive margin improvement. We've been able to really drive improvements in the network through network optimization, through consolidation of warehousing to reduce selling and warehousing expenses as a percent of revenue.
And we've really taken a fine-tooth comb to our SG&A spend to really sort of what I call cut from the back of the house to invest in the front of the house to cut non-consumer-facing, non-value-generated activities and really be able to reinvest that into marketing. And so over time, those savings have begun to show themselves in the P&L. They'll continue to show themselves into 2025. But we have that delicate balance of how do we ensure we're investing for growth while also continuing to plot our path to profitability, which we continue to believe will be in 2026.
I hope this won't be redundant. You've been in the CFO seat now for almost a year. Maybe kind of taking a step back, can you share some of your insights over that time frame? Where do you see additional opportunities to continue to push on the cost side?
Yeah. I mean, I think when I joined, I saw Zevia as really sort of a diamond in the rough. I think this shift in consumer preferences from conventional to better-for-you is real and accelerating. I think Zevia's sort of approachable price point, clean label, all natural, I think is a very unique and ownable way that we can win in the category. And so I saw all of that. But I also saw that there were a lot of operational challenges. But I felt that I had the playbook to be able to come and address them.
And so, I think really where we're focused is we are going to continue to focus on optimizing the portfolio, which will then drive a much more simplified but more efficient supply chain, which is where we continue to see the opportunity to take cost out and why we're so kind of confident that we'll be able to get to just a deeper profitability in 2026.
And so you've talked about kind of taking the cost out of the bag, moving it to the front. I think in the near term, you've talked about mid- to high-40s% gross margins. Then over the next several years, you've got kind of the DSD piece. So how do we think about the balance on a multi-year basis of where the gross margins are headed for the business?
Yeah. I think we'll be able to maintain those margins given that DSD is still today a very small percentage of the business. Now over time, it's probably not going to be 100%. But it'll be some type of hybrid model. But that being said, there is enough runway wherein we can invest in DSD while also drive enough efficiencies to maintain that sort of mid- to high-40s gross margin.
A bit steadier, not kind of a long-term change to it.
Yes.
Got it. OK. Shifting gears to the outlook, I guess we now kind of know what 4Q looks like. But you've offered a 2025 outlook of modest growth. You reiterated that today. Can you talk about some of the puts and takes behind the assumptions when you initially gave that? And maybe has anything changed within your expectations?
Yeah. I mean, I think we're still pretty confident in that outlook of modest growth. Obviously, the expansion and distribution of Walmart is a significant tailwind for the business. We believe that there will likely be some incremental opportunity in grocery, as we've probably shared. Many of our grocery partners have delayed their shelf decisions in light of Walmart's announcement, but there are some headwinds as well, Target falling off or lapping Target, lapping the challenges in club. We'll all sort of be headwinds primarily in the first half of the year, and so that's really where if you sort of net it all out, we're comfortable with the modest growth. But again, I think really our focus is how do we continue to sort of dial in that revenue growth engine so that we can set 2026 and beyond for much more accelerated growth.
For 2026, you've committed to achieving positive EBITDA. So can you kind of bridge us from here to there? Obviously, the top line's going to play a key role there. Any other considerations as you kind of bridge to that?
Yeah. I think there's still COGS opportunity. There's still, I'll call it network optimization. And to a lesser degree, there's a little bit of SG&A. But there is still, let's call it, we haven't fully seen all of the savings that we've negotiated hit the P&L yet. There's a little bit of a delay when it comes to supply chain. We can negotiate it. It takes maybe three to six months to fully be realized in the P&L. And so that's what you're going to start to see in 2025 is you're going to start to see more of those savings kind of hit the P&L. And so as I think about bridging from where we are to where we need to get to, I'm pretty confident we'll be able to do that.
Got it. We have a couple more minutes, so I have two kind of bigger picture questions that I want to ask, and you talked about the actions at Walmart and people watching that, and so I guess I'm just curious what you think this means for the category. Do you feel like we're at a tipping point? Just more broadly, as you think about clean label beverages and kind of this modern soda appeal, kind of where we are within that life cycle?
I do think it's a tipping point. I think it's reflective of how people are thinking about the soda category changing really for the first time in 100 years. Not to be dramatic, but I think that's what we're looking at. It's bringing the Modern Soda set is meeting the needs of the consumer who wants to reduce their sugar intake but also seeking a clean label product. I think it's important that that set offers options for folks up and down the income scale. We're a product where you can buy a 12-pack and throw it in the fridge, and every member of the family can grab one, or you can grab a 34-pack or 30-pack variety pack and take it to a cookout or a tailgate and offer every usage occasion and every member of the family a tasty Zevia, and it is affordable to do exactly that.
We bring a lot to that Modern Soda set, but I do see it as a precedent setter, a little bit of a bellwether of where we're going, and it's in keeping with macro trends, as we said earlier, away from sugar toward clean label products, and maybe one more just indicator of sizing this whole thing, right? Mintel sees diet and zero soda continuing to grow as much as 30%-35% over the next five years and is expecting better-for-you soda, so the players within this Modern Soda set to grow over 75% across that same period of time, so again, we have a single-digit household penetration playing in a category with a massive TAM and tremendous growth expectations.
Having just now starting to invest in marketing, being fueled by the productivity initiatives Girish is speaking about, we're very bullish on sort of taking our fair market share and helping to drive that step change in a massive category.
OK. That was great. And then just kind of as we wrap up here, the business now kind of inflecting back to growth as we've talked about. But you're coming off of a year plus of some challenges. You've made some changes within the organization. I guess where is the organization now?
Yeah.
Kind of changes that you made internally just so that provide confidence that something like that isn't going to be.
It's actually a great topic to end on. I'm really pleased with our leadership team. Girish has been a critical addition to that team. We have a very clear roadmap now to continue this productivity initiative to take, as you said, cost out of the back and invest it into growth. We have a crystal clear brand proposition now leaning on humor and parody to sort of be that antidote to the world of artificiality and lean in to sort of be an unsugar-coated real player for exactly what we think the consumer is looking for in their beverage. And we have a clear path to grow distribution. And we're starting to execute exactly that. And since you asked about the org, I'll just ask one other thing. In the midst of the crazy fires that are still unchecked in Los Angeles, our organization's based in Encino in Los Angeles.
I thought since this is being webcast, I want to just give a shout-out to my team who continues to be so committed to build this business, to find a way to work, to bond together and help one another when they are displaced, and to continue on this mission to continue to address global health by putting better-for-you beverages in every fridge in America. I'm really proud of the team in the midst of a really challenging situation.
Absolutely. I think that's a great place to end. So thank you very much, both of you, for being here. And thank you to everyone else as well.