BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (AMS:BESI)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 20, 2020

Speaker 1

Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Besi's Quarterly Conference Call and Audio Webcast to discuss the company's 2019 4th Quarter and Annual Results. You can log in to the audio webcast via Besi's website, www.besi.com. Joining us today are Mr. Richard Blickman, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Korf Tehennepe, Senior Vice President, Finance and Ms.

Hedwig van Kerkhoff, Senior Vice President, Finance. At this moment, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded and cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

Richard Blickman. Go ahead please, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you all for joining us today. We will begin by making a few comments in connection with the press release we issued earlier today and then take your questions. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made during this call and some of the answers in response to your questions by management may contain forward looking statements. Such statements may involve uncertainties and risks as described in the earnings release and other reports filed with the AFM.

For today's call, we'd like to review the key highlights for our Q4 and year end December 31, 2019 and also update you on the market, our strategy and outlook. Before we begin, I'd like to announce that Cor Tejenepe will retire from Besi this June after 18 years of service. Kare has been a solid and valued member of the Besi management team and we will miss his wisdom and service. Var has been a solid and valued member of the Besi team. And as I mentioned before, my apologies, this sentence was duplicated.

Replacing COR as SVP Finance effective on March 1 will be Hedwig von Kerkhoff, whom currently serves as Director of Internal Control and Secretary of the Board and has held various senior positions within our finance department over the past 24 years. First, some overall thoughts on our Q4 and annual results. Besi's 4th quarter results came in better than guidance in a market which started to emerge from the 20 eighteen-twenty 19 down cycle. Revenue of €92,400,000 increased by 3% versus the Q3 and was at the high end of guidance due to better than anticipated shipments of Ibonix systems for advanced logic and cloud server applications. Orders increased strongly by €18,300,000 or 22.3 percent also driven by an increase in IDM bookings for advanced logic applications.

Order intake from Chinese subcontractors remained solid, continuing their second half year twenty nineteen recovery versus the first half of the year. Net income of €33,700,000 grew by 75.5 percent versus the Q3 due primarily to €11,600,000 of deferred tax benefits recognized at Besi's Swiss operations associated with changes in Swiss fiscal policy. Excluding such benefits, net income increased by €2,900,000 or 15.1 percent versus the 3rd quarter as gross margin and operating expense development were both better than anticipated. Similarly, net margins excluding tax benefits increased to 23.9% this quarter versus 21.4% in the 3rd quarter and have been above 20% for the past 3 quarters. Against the backdrop of an industry downturn that persisted for most of 2019, Besi reported revenue in total of €356,200,000 and a net income of €81,300,000 which represented decreases of 32% 40% respectively versus 2018.

Our revenue development was negatively influenced by supply demand imbalances that began in the Q2 of 2018 and higher levels of customer uncertainty caused by global trade tensions, particularly during the 2nd Q3 last year. ACES mobile and automotive end user markets were most adversely affected by the downturn this past year. Despite market headwinds, Beige achieved strong levels of profitability and efficiency in 2019 based on our market leadership position and timely reduction of personnel and overhead levels in alignment with order trends. In addition, we adjusted our Asian production model in light of global trade tensions and increased development efforts in preparation for the next market upcycle. Furthermore, we realized quarterly gross margins in excess of 55% throughout the year.

Expenses to their lowest levels since 2015 and maintained high levels of cash flow efficiency. Besi spares and service activities also helped provide some cushion to operating results. This less cyclical high margin business generated revenue equal to approximately 20% of consolidated revenue. As a result, operating income and operating margins in 2019 increased by 34 $1,000,000 or 58.7 percent and 9.2% respectively versus the past industry downturn in 2015 on roughly comparable revenue levels. Such results underscore our performance improvement over the past 5 years.

Besi ended 2019 with a solid liquidity base of €408,400,000 in cash and deposits after funding €167,100,000 of shareholder distributions during the year in the form of dividends and share repurchases. During the quarter, net cash grew by €23,400,000 sequentially to reach €130,300,000 Cash flow from operations of €36,300,000 in Q4 2019 was used primarily to fund €5,800,000 of share repurchases and €4,100,000 of capitalized development spending. As a percentage of revenue, cash flow from operations was 33.7% in 2019, remaining at attractive levels due to a reduction of DSOs, the sales outstanding, and tight inventory controls. Besi's strong cash generation supports a shareholder friendly capital allocation program. Since 2011, AC has returned to investors a total of €652,900,000 In 2019, share repurchase activity increased to €44,700,000 versus 35 point €5,000,000 in 2018.

Repurchases were €5,800,000 in Q4. Treasury shares now equal 9.8 percent of total shares outstanding and are held to cover potential dilution from our convertible bonds and long term incentive compensation plan. We intend to propose an increase in the authorization above the current 10% cap at Besi's April 30 AGM to facilitate future share repurchases. Members of the Board will also propose a cash dividend over 2019 equal to €1.01 per share equal to a payout ratio of 90%. Next, I'd like to speak about the current market environment in Besi's R and D activities.

VLSI Research now estimates that the assembly equipment market declined by about 30.4% in 2019 to reach a cyclical low of €3,000,000,000 in total. This reflects a much more negative outcome than previously forecasted and underlines the severity of the 20 eighteen-twenty 19 downturn in our market segment. Looking forward, VLSI expects the market to rebound in 2020 2021 with increases of 10.3% and 7.2% respectively. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by 5 gs network expansion, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Everything and innovations in packaging technology. Underlying this improved sales outlook, there was a pronounced and rapid change in market conditions in the Q4 last year as is evident in the next chart.

It appears that many of the factors contributing to the downturn such as global trade tensions and supply demand imbalances finally began to recede. The underpinnings of a recovery in the memory market also began to appear in the form of stabilizing prices and the normalization of supplier and end market inventories. CapEx announcements by the leading mobile logic and memory players for 20 20 also support a more constructive sector outlook. Advanced Packaging is now recognized by customers as a critical part of the value chain to supply semiconductor devices for the digital society. Besi has significantly invested in customer focused R and D of the past many years to support such IDM device roadmaps for the next investment round.

Specifically, we are currently developing die bonding and packaging solutions for smaller, highly complex and feature packed 5 gs compatible smartphones with capabilities such as micro LED screens, 5 gs antennas, front back facing cameras, multiple camera modules and enhanced 3 d sensing and facial recognition features. We're also investing in the next generation of hybrid bonding systems to facilitate wafer level bonding, integrating multiple devices at geometries as small as 7 nanometers. Another area of current focus is the introduction of high volume TCP systems for advanced memory and logic applications. Now a few words about our guidance. For the Q1 2020 Besi estimates that revenue will be equal to the Q4 last year plus or minus 10%.

The impact of the coronavirus on our Q1 shipments, order patterns and supply chain activities is difficult to assess at present as the situation continues to evolve post the extended Chinese New Year. As such, we've expanded our revenue guidance range for the quarter. To put things in perspective, our China revenue exposure was about 31% of the total revenue in 2019, but that's composed of both foreign IDMs and domestic Chinese subcontractors. Same holds true for our Chinese suppliers, most of whom are outside the affected provinces. Our manufacturing operations in Luzon are also outside the most affected provinces and remain open and staffed.

All that being said, there are still some Chinese customers and suppliers, which are not fully operational and it is too early to say whether or not this will cause disruption in delivery schedules and or the receipt of orders to influence Q1 results. The current outlook is our best estimate we have at this moment. Based on the current revenue guidance, we forecast gross margins in the range of 54% to 56%. Q1 operating expenses are to grow by approximately 35% to 40% versus the 4th quarter. Growth is due primarily to approximately $7,000,000 of share based compensation expense.

Baseline operating expenses are expected to grow between 10% 15% sequentially from $23,700,000 in Q4 due to higher development spending and sales and service related expenses. And finally, we estimate 2020 effective tax rate of 12% to 15% and capital spending between €4,000,000 €5,000,000 In summary, Besi has emerged from each of the past 4 down cycles, a stronger company with increased revenue, market share and profit potential. We are optimistic about 2020 and the next investment cycle despite near term uncertainties. Our optimism is supported by long term secular growth drivers for the advanced packaging segment of the assembly equipment market in particular. We have a leading position in this area, which is an important enabler for the digital society and the new applications to be generated along with it.

In combination with new strategic initiatives, highly scalable and flexible production model and ample liquidity, we are well positioned to take advantage of industry opportunities no matter which way the market moves in the quarters to come. That ends my prepared remarks. I would like to call open the call for some questions. Operator?

Speaker 1

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will start the question and answer session now. The first question is from Mr. Peter Olofsen, Kepler Cheuvreux. Go ahead please.

Speaker 3

Gentlemen, my first question is on the revenue guidance. It's flat sequentially, but on a year on year basis, it suggests that the business growing again. And at the midpoint, it's like 14% growth versus Q1 last year. Could you maybe shed some light on which end markets or applications are driving that year on year growth? Or is it rather broad based?

Speaker 2

Well, it's primarily thank you, Peter. It's primarily again the high end logic market and in addition also coming up high end smartphones again. Still automotive is relatively stable.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's helpful. And then to clarify what you said on the situation in China. So your Lejang operations are running like normal. Is that what you are basically were saying?

Speaker 2

Yes. The situation is as follows. Everyone is back to work. We have only one person which is currently not able to work. There are 4 more who have a normal holiday leave.

So operations are back to normal. What is uncertain today is the delivery of system to certain Chinese customers. Some have been delayed by 2 weeks, one by 4 weeks. So early March, we will know for certain whether we have all systems scheduled for shipments to be shipped or that some may be delayed till early April. It's not a matter of orders, it's a matter of shipment.

In the supply chain, there are few smaller issues, but not critical. That's the current situation.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's very helpful. Then maybe on a question for Corus. I understand that the effective tax rate for 2020 will be more or less what you had been guiding in the past as well. So the what you had in Switzerland was really a one off and therefore not affecting the tax rate going forward?

Speaker 4

No, there's hardly any effect. There is some effect. Based on the Swiss tax reform, the Swiss changed the fiscal system. Basically, they increased the statutory rate a bit. So the statutory rate will go up slightly, but as you can see in the guidance, not significantly.

And then on the Swiss law, there is this, what they call, smoothing of this increase in tax that gives you the right to offset certain reserves against future profits. That has a value. That value has to be recorded in our books and that is a deferred tax asset of €11,600,000 that you saw recorded in the Q4. That's where it comes from. So the 12% to 15% in general is slightly higher than the 10% to 15% we said last year, but it's not a real significant effect.

And based on this deferred tax asset, the cash out will be on similar levels as last year.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's fair. Then a question on operating expenses. In the press release, you mentioned that there were some higher consulting expenses related to the strategic plan review. Is that basically a regular review?

Or should we read more into this sentence?

Speaker 2

No. Every 4 or 5 years, every cycle, we realign our strategy. So we have done that once again. It's an 11 weeks process whereby we define more clearly how we can execute in the best way from this from current perspective in the next cycle. And that is a onetime consultancy cost.

Speaker 3

And is there any meaningful outcome that you may want to share?

Speaker 2

Well, the outcome is, as we mentioned in some of the sentences, we are pretty confident, as we always are, on our prospects in the next cycle. But as always, we still have to prove that we are able to do that. But there are no changes, otherwise we would have mentioned that. But currently the advanced team has significant opportunities in the years to come ever more critical to the end products of our customers. So in order to sharpen our strategy as we have done in most cycles, that is a very sensible thing to do.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's helpful. And then my last question is on your balance sheet or your debt. In 2016, you issued a convertible, and you actually have the option to redeem this convertible later this year. Is there something you can share at this moment on your intentions what you will do with this convertible?

Speaker 2

Well, first of all, as we have shared at the issue of convertibles, We do that to safeguard our strategic developments going forward. And if you simply look at the opportunities in the coming years. Certainly, our financial position allows us to investigate these opportunities and also to execute on these opportunities. So that's why we have raised close to €300,000,000 in the form of convertibles to be ready to do that. And as soon as those opportunities occur, we will share that with you.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The next question is from Mr. Wim Ville, ABN AMRO. Go ahead please.

Speaker 5

Yes, very good afternoon. I have two small questions. First of all, in the press release, you mentioned that you adjusted the supply chain in Besi to reflect kind of geopolitical tensions. Can you give us a bit more granularity on what exactly you adjusted in the supply chain? That's my first question.

And the second one, if you look at your revenues recorded in the year down 32% versus VLSI, down sorry, your revenue is down 32%, whereas VLSI is guiding that the market is down 30%. Is it are these two numbers comparable? Or are there mix effects taking place why these numbers should not be compared in a 1 on 1 relation?

Speaker 2

Excellent. Well, the first question is about the supply chain, the adjustments we made last year to be well prepared for any effects, negative effects of the trade tensions. We have more clearly defined the product ranges we built in China and we built in Malaysia. So China for China and Malaysia for the rest of the world. In a similar way, this is for a production of end products.

In a similar way, we have done that for parts. And you can easily see that also the effect of this corona has, let's say, minimal effect on us because we have all capabilities in Malaysia. Malaysia is our main hub and China is a satellite of Malaysia. So that all ties together in having a clear focus in both supply chains. On your second question, the answer is very simple.

It's not an VLSI is not an exact science. Our revenue is. So if you compare 2018 revenue levels to 2019, the delta 32% and is an exact science. The estimation of the market by FRSI will certainly be corrected. Either the overall market will have declined somewhat more or maybe somewhat less.

That's hard to understand because they are looking at the total market. So that's not directly comparable.

Speaker 5

Very good. And then maybe as a follow-up on that last comment. Obviously, what Besi has done very well over the last cycles is basically to gain market share and to increase profitability in each of the downturns. How do you feel about your market share coming out of this downturn as we speak?

Speaker 2

Well, if you look back over the past, let's say, 4 cycles, past 10 plus years, We have always declined somewhat more in a down cycle and we have gained significant share in up cycles. And that's because of an ongoing focus on the high growth end products. So if all goes well and we repeat our performance in previous cycles, you should see further market share gains in the next upcycle. Very clear. Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Mr. Nigel van Putten, Kempen and Co. Go ahead please.

Speaker 6

Hi, good afternoon. My first question is on the high end smartphones showing signs of life as you alluded to in the prepared remarks. How should we think about seasonality into the Q2 this year? Historically, of course, there's been a bit of a bump. How do you expect that to play out based on the current view?

Speaker 2

Well, our visibility is typically 1 quarter. And the fact that the 4th quarter increased by bookings increased by more than 20% compared to the 3rd quarter is, let's say, an abnormality. Usually, the Q4 is still slow and the Q1 and typically the end of the Q1 shows the trend for the next year. So far we are in an up cycle, which is impacted of course by this COVID-nineteen. But the overall view and what you read daily is that that should continue for 2020.

Same like the VLSI numbers we refer to, 'twenty is expected to be a growth year, maybe with some shift. But it's hard to tell today whether that COVID will cast a shadow or how far that shadow will be cast into the future quarters. But the underlying industry trend is a positive one. That's as much as I can say.

Speaker 6

No, of course, maybe in terms of specific applications or innovations that you see customer demand. I understand it's difficult to clarify or to substantiate the actual numbers, but do you think that 2020 will be, as we have talked about in the past, one of the technology cycle maybe in addition to a cyclical recovery?

Speaker 2

Well, our message so far has been that in a similar pattern like 2015, 2016, 2017, it would be more likely that 'twenty one would be a next potential peak. However, if you look at the VLSI data today, 20% growth in 2020 and single digit in 2021. If we look at the public information about high end smartphone trends. It is expected more 2021 to be a stronger growth year than 2020 with in 2020 some first or initial 5 gs capabilities, but that also may change. But that's what we see.

Speaker 6

Yes. Understood. Question on another sector automotive. I think it was Infineon that announced last month that we'll start to use flip chip or at least widen the use of flip chip for power supply. Could you provide some color on what you expect at this market and your positioning?

Speaker 2

Well, so far automotive is as we mentioned in also in a cyclical downturn correction and gradually we may see this year some recovery. There's an ongoing trend also in power for smaller devices using different interconnect technologies, maybe flip chip, but only for a very small portion. But that's the current situation in Automotive.

Speaker 6

Okay. Last question, just a clarification. In the order book, the share of IDMs is up and also the share of shipments to Asia is up quite significantly. So am I right to assume that these IDMs are based in the U. S.

But have packaging facilities in Vietnam and other parts of Asia, that's sort of the underlying dynamic or am I missing a piece of the puzzle?

Speaker 2

No, you're spot on. That's the trend. Okay. Great. So Europe is still slow, mostly automotive.

U. S. Both logic high end and also mobile Internet devices. And also as we mentioned in Chinese subcontractors are expanding capacity, which we did in the 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, continued in the Q1. So that's the overall picture.

Speaker 6

That's very clear. Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Mr. Marc Hesselink, ING. Go ahead please.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you for taking the question. My first question is actually also on the IBM. So there was a pretty strong uptick in the oil intake in the Q4, and you're logically more cautious for the guidance for the Q1. To translate those two things, does it mean that those IDM orders are more longer term?

Or is that like is there something else behind that?

Speaker 2

No, no. Your assessment is very right. IDMs typically new technology longer term and the subcontractors are more the mature products and also capacity expansions. So a lot of the IDM is technology buyers for next generation products. So that's the picture.

Speaker 8

And then

Speaker 7

also, I'm glad to assume that those kind of investments are also running for a longer time, so not one strong quarter and then never again, but running for a few quarters, is that the typical picture?

Speaker 2

For some, it's some they do. And for some, it is a first round and a second round might take some time. But you could say on average, they're more solid structure than the subcontractor will.

Speaker 7

Okay. Then the second question and a follow-up on the what you said about the COVID-nineteen virus and your supply chains in Malaysia and China. Is that given that maybe there is some delay in the Chinese part, could it be the case that, therefore, some of your demand would shift in simulation and that could actually be a bit of an advantage for you given that your competitors are more and more China based?

Speaker 2

Well, that could be. But on the other hand, in these situations and we've had that in the past, that's hard to forecast. We have as I answered to an earlier question, we have a very good infrastructure in Malaysia for all of our products, in China for most of our products, but all focused on Chinese customers. And that's different with our competitors.

Speaker 7

Okay. Final question is also a follow-up on the new applications and also the feasibility on that. So typically, every year in the second quarter is the big one for the smartphone market and maybe now this year even more with 5 gs. Is that fair to assume that in the second quarter, running into the Q1, will indeed have that visibility if it's going to be in the next smartphones and if you want that? Or is that not something you can say?

Speaker 2

Well, no, that's a very good point. We should see like we have seen in other up cycles, the trend is important in March, April, June that is typically the time when those expansions are launched. And the question now is, which we can't answer, will that be affected or not?

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Next question is from Mr. Marcel Akerberg, KBC Securities. Go ahead please.

Speaker 9

Yes, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. The visibility on the March June timeframe that you just said was questionable to Mark. Do you have any visibility on or sorry, let me rephrase it. Does your do your clients offer you any visibility on that ramp up for the next cycle?

Speaker 2

Well, our customers and you can read that in all public disclosures are very positive about 2020. So the underlying, as I mentioned on both in the comments and to some answers, the underlying sentiment is very positive for 20.

Speaker 9

So if you would I mean, it's difficult to understand, but if you would exclude the whole coronavirus situation, then the underlying demand for back end equipment or in general semiconductors is in a normal seasonal upstream as it would in a normal upturn?

Speaker 2

Yes. The only question is, will it be in 2014 or 2017? To what extent will this upcycle expand? That depends on global economy, it depends on technology rollouts, It depends on 5 gs. Some people, yes, are more cautious about the 5 gs rollout simply because of the infrastructure constraints.

So it take a bit longer. But those are main elements.

Speaker 9

All right. So the structure, the main items still stand despite the politics and the virus situation.

Speaker 2

Yes. But that's very usual. Also what I should mention is auto should come back. So once we fire on all drivers, then you can see the full extent of the next upcycle.

Speaker 9

All right. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Mr. Frederic Yeroy, Bryan Garnier. Go ahead please. Sir, your line is open. Go ahead please.

Speaker 8

Hi. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes, Frederic.

Speaker 8

Okay, okay. So I noticed that so my first question, I noticed that in your presentation deck that VLSI reduced its forecasted assembly market growth in 2021 from 10% previously to 7.2%. So as you said, VLSI is not an exact science, but I would like to know if you can drive us through the reasons for the change in the data. I'm also asking that question because considering that you previously shared the sentiment that 2021 was likely to be stronger than 2020 for Besi based on 5 gs and computing applications rollout. So is it still your view that 2021 should be or could be stronger than 2020?

Well,

Speaker 2

we still follow the logic that you always see up cycles over more than 4 quarters.

Speaker 8

They

Speaker 2

are usually patterns of 6 quarters, sometimes which was in 2017, 2018, unusual 8 quarters, but take 6 quarters. That means that the peak of that cycle is beyond 2020. Also if you look at the drivers and you mentioned already 5 gs as an important one, We should also consider, yes, all the computing power and memory, etcetera needed for AI. Some people look at an extended upcycle even beyond that. So in this sense, VLSI is conservative in their view, but again they update their view very regularly.

But important is to understand Besi has demonstrated we can ramp very quickly 60% revenue increase quarter by quarter. We also are able to ramp down quickly and remain similar margins. So as I always say for us, it doesn't matter whether we have a stronger and a longer upcycle or not because the visibility remains limited and you can easily see that in how our customers share their developments with the market.

Speaker 8

Okay. Okay. Thank you. And so I have a second question. So my second question is a follow-up to the previous one on automotive.

You seem to have a good visibility on the roadmap for smartphones and logic applications. In general, what is but in general, what is the visibility that you can have for the automotive market? Because some IDMs have announced an increase in the CapEx for 2020 to support future applications. And it seems also that 2021 could be a strong year for automotive applications, especially coming from EV and ADAS. Do you have any visibility on the potential for assembly equipment and your opportunities in that sense?

Any development ongoing or I don't know what kind of growth we can expect if we can have more color on that.

Speaker 2

In a way it's very interesting over many, many years the revenue from automotive in our overall revenue is somewhere between 15% 20%, sometimes slightly above, but mostly within that bracket. And that also is reflecting the same pattern in automotive electronics versus the logic and memory and mobile Internet device trends. So as we said, it should if you continue to see the same trends, automotive should gradually return to growth again in 2020. And there have been CapEx levels announced reflecting that. And if all goes well, Besi should benefit from that.

Speaker 8

Okay. Okay. Thank you. And my last question on your guidance. So the corona virus outbreak is certainly the reason for the wider than usual range for the Q1 revenue guidance.

But at the midrange of the guidance, would you say that it already includes also a negative impact from the outbreak or it is mostly reflected in the range? Yes, another way of asking the question is that

Speaker 2

The simple answer, Ulrik, is when you see orders increase by 20% in Q4 that always guides revenue increase in the quarter thereafter. So the revenue should, if there was no virus, should increase by similar levels. Okay. That's okay. Thanks.

So that's good. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question is from Mr. Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please.

Speaker 10

Yes, good afternoon. My first question is just if you could give us the mix between mobile Internet devices, automotive and computing in 2019? And I've got some follow ups. Thanks.

Speaker 2

32% mobile Internet devices, 20 3% core.

Speaker 4

Yes, 23% to 25%.

Speaker 2

For high end logic and then automotive 17%? 17, yes.

Speaker 10

That's great. And on the 2023 convertible, I don't know if you've had any thoughts, but I know you can there's a soft call option that is coming up at the end of this year that's deeply in the money. Have you had any thoughts about whether you'll call that convert? And I got one more follow-up. Thanks.

Speaker 2

We may, but it's too early, still most of the year to go on, but we can do it in several ways and we are prepared for that.

Speaker 10

Got it. And then just last question just on the coronavirus. What are actually there's been a lot of issues with shortages in CMOS sensor for example, where presumably you could maybe could take share if the Koreans take share from ASMPT. But on the Chinese packages themselves, what are they actually doing? Are they running at full steam?

Or are they running below their feasible capacity? Because I'm kind of wondering, are they building up inventory and running at full steam? Or are they kind of way below the potential feasible capacity right now?

Speaker 2

Our read is that the average utilization rate is somewhere between 50% 70%.

Speaker 10

Got it for the Chinese only packages. Got it. Okay. And so presumably then there will be a big spike as things recover. Yes.

And they can't build up inventory in this moment in time. So that could be a positive for you in the second half?

Speaker 2

Yes. As I mentioned in the question earlier, you have to be prepared and usually there's a spike after. The most significant was 2010 after 2009. But there also have been other situations, 2015, for example, the slowdown in second half. So that could well happen.

Speaker 10

Got it. So this is not really a typical year where post Chinese New Year you have a huge order number that gives good visibility on 2020. This is going to be more about coronavirus. The order

Speaker 2

trend is still continuing. It's a matter of being able to deliver.

Speaker 10

Okay. So As

Speaker 2

much as I mentioned, our supply chain that's relatively so far intact. It's more the customers being able to take the systems in house.

Speaker 10

Got it. And you mean to certify and invoice and qualify and all of those things?

Speaker 2

To take ownership to install. So there's still at customer sites situations where less people have been able to come back, governments making things or being very cautious and that delays installation.

Speaker 10

Got it. So you have machines waiting in bubble wrap to be installed all over the place? Yes.

Speaker 2

The range plusminus10%. Got it.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 1

There are no further questions, Mr. Blickman.

Speaker 2

Well, then let me thank everyone for attending this call. And if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you. Goodbye.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your line. Have a nice day.

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