Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Elders Limited HY 2024 results investor briefing. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question via the phone, you will need to press the star key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via webcast, please enter it into the Ask a Question box and click Submit. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mark Allison, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, and welcome to all to the Elders half year results presentation for financial year 2024. Thank you for joining Paul and myself for the session today. From an Elders viewpoint, this is the first half of our 4th Eight-Point Plan, first year of our 4th Eight-Point Plan. The Elders philosophy since the 1st Eight-Point Plan in 2014, has been to control what we can control and not to dwell on what we can't control. To have a cost and capital structure, to allow us to make good returns in bad years and make great returns in good years. The FY24 year, full-year guidance is an example of acceptable returns in difficult market and cost conditions, and particularly in quarter one, and we will go to the detail of that through the presentation.
We use our multiple diversifications by product, service, geography, crop segment, commercial model, and channel to market and our financial discipline to deliver consistent and high returns for our stakeholders. In summary, we aim to control what we can control. Over the first six months of the 4th, of our 4th Eight-Point Plan, we experienced an exceptionally difficult first quarter with improving market conditions across Eastern Australia from the start of this calendar year or our second quarter. Our view in November last year was that the average conditions in FY 2023 were declining in the first quarter of FY 2024 across rural products and agency services, and are now returning to an average outlook for the remainder of FY 2024.
In this context, the performance of Elders with its clear and consistent strategy, multiple diversifications, high financial discipline, committed team, and enduring customer anchor, as the most trusted brand in Australian agriculture, is very solid. The result is strong in safety, sustainability, and cash flow, and we reaffirm our full-year underlying EBIT guidance of between AUD 120 million and AUD 140 million for FY 2024. Our commitment is to provide 5%-10% growth in EBIT and earnings per share at a minimum of 50% return on capital in a sustainable manner through a safe and inclusive workplace. The outlook remains consistent with our 5%-10% growth through the cycles, and a commitment with this commitment with our annual growth for the last 5 years, approaching 20% on these metrics.
Our approach today is that I'll provide an overview of the results. Paul will go to the detail of our financial performance, and I'll then provide an update of our outlook and growth and the transformation initiatives as we deliver our 4th Eight-Point Plan over the next two and a half years. Moving firstly to the slide on 5. We have a look at the resilience of the business through seasonal volatility. You can see from 1st Eight-Point Plan all the way through to our current Eight-Point Plan, the multiple environmental factors, just reaffirming our belief, our focus on return through the cycles.
In the strategy session of the presentation, I'll also talk to our view on being able to achieve this these targets by the end of this 4th Eight-Point Plan in FY26. But you can see growth in the first three Eight-Point Plans above the EPS, EBIT, and ROC targets. And also the 4th Eight-Point Plan, as we mentioned at the end of last year, cut from the same cloth as the previous Eight-Point Plans with a portfolio approach, ROC focus, multiple diversifications, and operating in the same market with largely the same executive team. Going through to the next slide on the people and customer highlights. From a safety viewpoint, one Lost Time Injury versus three at the same time last year.
A reduction in our total recordable injury frequency rate, so continual improvement on the safety front. The Net Promoter Score at maintaining a very high level at 47. Women in the workforce at 37%. 21% women in senior positions, and this is from a 4% at the beginning of the Eight-Point Plan process. And also taking into account that largely with our bolt-on acquisitions, we dilute our women in management position because there tends to be a disproportionate percentage of men in those senior positions with our bolt-on acquisitions. And then employee engagement, still at the high-performing level and additional sites that have come on board in the last six months.
Going to the next slide, safety and wellbeing, and from a lost time injury viewpoint, as I mentioned, down to one for the first half, and that's against the annual number of 34 at the start of the Eight-Point Plan process, and a continuing good trend on the total recordable injury frequency. I think I highlighted last half with a strong improvement through the wholesale business. So moving to the next slide on sustainability performance, and we talked previously about the targets we had set a couple of years ago. We've made great progress around our waste management, ethical sourcing platform, the Big Bag Recovery Program that we're partnering in, and also the targeted solar and LED transition.
So, we're comfortable that we're moving along nicely on the sustainability front. Moving to the next slide, and the next slide, many of these measures we foreshadowed with our trading update of a few weeks ago, with the decline in EBIT for the first half against last year. And we'd also had a bit of feedback around understanding the difference impacts of Q1 and Q2. And when Paul comes to that slide, we've broken it out in a way that allows you to see the significant downside of Q1. Our return on capital down, and the first time in 10 years, actually, that we've dropped below our target, the 15% target.
Our belief is that when we normalize Q1, and with the initiatives in place, that we'll be approaching, we'll be at or above the 15% target as we run out to the end of this calendar year, and for the first half of FY 2025. Looking at cash conversion, very strong, and again, Paul can talk to that. And our leverage comment that we did make in the trading update, our target's between 1.5 and 2, sitting at 2.6 at this point, but with a belief that for Q1 FY25, this will come back into line, if not before. So with that, I'll hand to Paul, and he'll run through the details of the financial metrics.
Thanks, Mark, and welcome, everybody. I'll commence on slide 11 of the pack, which summarizes Elders' first half achievements, notwithstanding challenging seasonal conditions, especially in the first quarter, as Mark alluded to. Elders gave a trading update on April 8th, noting a forecast underlying EBIT range for FY 2024 of between AUD 120 million and AUD 140 million, supported by a return to average seasonal conditions in the second half. I note that the second half EBIT assumption is within the range established over the past three financial years. Elders has made good progress in executing its 4th Eight-Point Plan in completing 10 acquisitions in the first half, and the acquisition of Knight Frank Tasmania post balance date.
The first half results showed resilience notwithstanding difficult trading conditions, especially in the first quarter, which was characterized by deteriorating client sentiment following a material decline in livestock prices and forecast hot and dry conditions associated with the El Niño climate driver. Trading conditions and client sentiment improved after the first quarter, with January, February, and April all exceeding prior year comparison. Leverage and return on capital have been negatively impacted by the EBIT underperformance in the first half, but are forecast to improve in the second half and return to target by half year FY 2025. I'll move now to slide 12, which displays Elders' five-year financial performance from FY 2020. Over this period, sales have increased from AUD 900 million in FY 2020 to AUD 1.342 billion in FY 2024, a five-year compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 10.5%.
Gross margin has increased from AUD 204 million in FY 2020 to AUD 285 million in FY 2024, a 5-year CAGR of 8.8%. Comparatively, costs have increased at a 5-year CAGR of 13% and remain a focus for the second half. Underlying EBIT has decreased from AUD 53 million in FY 2020 to AUD 38 million in FY 2024, a 5-year CAGR of -7.7%, materially impacted by below average trading conditions in the first half of FY 2024. Moving now to slide 13, which focuses on shareholder returns over the past 5 years. Over the period, underlying earnings per share decreased from AUD 0.312 in FY 2020 to AUD 0.119 in FY 2024, materially impacted by market conditions in the first half.
Dividends per share increased from AUD 0.09 in FY 2020 to AUD 0.18 in FY 2024, a 5-year CAGR of 18.9%. The dividend payout ratio is currently elevated above Elders' policy of 40%-60% of underlying NPAT, but is considered maintainable, given a high cash conversion forecast in FY 2024, and the improved trading outlook. Moving to slide 14, which contrasts FY 2024 against the prior corresponding period. Notwithstanding the challenging trading conditions, Elders has been able to deliver a resilient result for the first half. Looking at the comparison, sales revenue decreased AUD 315.5 million, down 19%. However, most of the negative impacts resulted from lower crop protection and input prices compared to prior period. Pleasingly, the volume of products sold increased compared to prior period, indicative of positive organic growth in the business.
We will explore this further in the presentation. Gross margin decreased AUD 20.4 million to AUD 285.4 million, down 7% year-on-year, negatively impacted by the low average trading conditions, but mitigated by recent acquisitions and new business. Gross margin percent increased 2.8%, with good progress toward our FY 2024 backward integration target of 60% of the addressable market for off-patent chemicals. The gradual improvement in gross margin percent is encouraging, given the negative impact experienced through FY 2023. Costs increased AUD 24 million to AUD 247 million, mostly due to acquisitions and new business such as Elders Wool. When adjusted for acquisitions and new business, costs have risen only 1.8%, well below inflation. Underlying EBIT decreased to AUD 38.4 million, materially impacted by the trading conditions, as discussed.
Operating cash flow was positive AUD 48.7 million, with cash conversion supported by improved working capital efficiency from management initiatives and also lower crop protection prices compared to prior period. An interim dividend of AUD 0.18 per share has been declared, reduced from AUD 0.23. Financial ratios are expected to revert to target by the first half of FY 2025, assuming average trading conditions. Moving to slide 15 now, which displays Elders product diversification. Overall, gross margin decreased by AUD 20.4 million to AUD 285.4 million. Lower ag chem and fertilizer prices compared to prior period had a material impact on retail products' gross margin. Lower livestock prices compared to prior period reduced agency services gross margin and had flow-on effects to retail products due to reduced client sentiment, which negatively impacted animal health and other retail, especially in the first quarter.
Pleasingly, outside of these impacts, several product categories demonstrated growth in the first half. Wholesale products increased AUD 2.6 million to AUD 35.3 million, +8%, with a very strong second quarter result. Real estate services gross margin increased AUD 6.5 million or 22.5%, with property management and residential and broad acre sales all showing significant growth, supported by recent acquisitions. Financial services gross margin increased by AUD 0.6 million to AUD 27.1 million, with continued growth from Elders Insurance. Over now to slide 16, where we further explore the impact of price volatility on the first half and how conditions changed materially from the first quarter to the second. The chart below left indicates that the drivers of underperformance in the first half were rural products, agency services, and costs. Each of these will be further analyzed in subsequent slides.
The chart to the right provides an indicator to the scale of impact on the first quarter from the conditions that prevailed at that time, and subsequently, the significance of the turnaround in the second quarter, following the cessation of El Niño and material increase in livestock prices. Turning to slide 17 now, we review recent price volatility for urea and glyphosate as proxies for crop protection and fertilizer. The charts below demonstrate the significant price volatility that has been experienced across crop protection and fertilizer over the past 18 months, following a material increase in prices from geopolitical events in FY 2022. While prices were comparatively stable through the first half of FY 2024, they remained significantly lower than the prior corresponding period. This delta had a material impact on retail product sales and gross margin in FY 2024 compared to prior period.
Pleasingly, some of this impact was offset by volume sales growth, as well as further progress in Elders' backward integration strategy, demonstrating resilience from Elders' diversified business model. The following slide explores volume growth within the business. The chart, top left, demonstrates that the volume of products sold continued to grow in FY 2024, notwithstanding challenging market conditions. The chart, bottom left, shows that this volume growth added approximately AUD 100 million in sales, partially offsetting the impact of lower crop protection and fertilizer prices on the retail business. We now move to slide 19 to take a closer look at sheep and cattle prices in recent times. Charts demonstrate the statistical materiality of price movements in sheep and cattle markets over the past 18 months. Analysis of prices over a 10-year period indicate that volatility of this magnitude is historically unusual.
The sudden reduction in livestock prices to levels well below the ten-year median had a material impact on Elders' first half result through reduced agency services revenue, but also reduced rural product sales in livestock-related categories, such as animal health and other categories of a discretionary nature. Pleasingly, livestock prices firmed in the second quarter and are now trading close to ten-year median prices across most livestock markets. This has improved sentiment across the industry. Slide 20. I'll now move to slide 20 to take a closer look at our real estate business, which has been a focus of business development in recent times. On May 1, Elders announced the acquisition of Knight Frank Tasmania, a welcomed addition to the real estate team within Elders. Elders' real estate business has grown at a CAGR of 21.3%, with earnings contribution diversified across property management, residential, and broadacre sales.
While Elders has grown significantly to become the fourth largest real estate company in its addressable market, it represents only 3.3% of transactions settled in that market. The chart below shows the regional locations of recent acquisitions, which are spread across the country, consistent with Elders' strategy of geographic diversification. Move now to slide 21 to further comment on geographic diversification. This slide shows geographic contribution to EBIT, excluding the wholesale business as well as corporate overheads. In comparison to FY 2023, all states were negatively impacted by the tough first half trading conditions. Now turn to slide 22 to discuss costs, which have increased, but mostly due to growth-related initiatives, including acquisitions and new business. Overall, costs grew AUD 24 million, up 11% year-on-year, to support future growth as well as our transformational projects.
In terms of key drivers, people contributed an additional AUD 12.8 million, acquisitions, AUD 7.3 million, transformational projects, AUD 6 million, and property, AUD 4.4 million. These cost increases were partially offset by a reduction of AUD 8.6 million from operating and other expenses. Regarding people, Elders added 183 FTE, of which 155 joined Elders through acquisition and an additional 42 from the commencement of Elders Wool in Ravenhall, Victoria. There was a net reduction of 14 FTE outside of these growth initiatives. The next slide separates costs relating to business growth, such as acquisitions and new business. The chart below shows that excluding growth-related uplift, costs have grown AUD 3.9 million, or 1.8%, well below the rate of inflation.
Consequently, 84% of the cost growth in the half resulted from initiatives to drive future EBIT growth, consistent with Elders' 4th Eight-Point Plan. Elders continues to target a AUD 10 million cost reduction in FY 2024, excluding costs from growth initiatives to mitigate the impact of inflation on the business. We'll move now to slide 24 to discuss capital allocation. Return on capital decreased from 16.9% to 11.4% compared to prior corresponding period and is below Elders' target rate of 15%. Return on capital is forecast to improve in the second half and return to above target by half year FY 2025, assuming a return to average seasonal conditions.
Key drivers of the decline in FY24 include lower livestock prices, which are a key driver of return on capital in Elders, and also the impact from lower EBIT resulting from below average trading conditions, especially in the first quarter. Pleasingly, working capital reduced by AUD 180 million compared to prior period, benefiting from lower input prices and management initiatives. Over now to slide 25 in cash flow, where we see an operating cash inflow of AUD 48.7 million for the first half. The outlook for operating cash flow and cash conversion in FY 2024 remains favorable, with full year cash conversion expected to exceed Elders' target of greater than 90% of underlying NPAT.
Note also that the physical payment of company tax for Elders Limited is not expected to recommence until 2026, following the submission of the FY25 tax return, and just noting this is a year later than previously forecast. I'll now move to slide 26, where we see balance date net debt, excluding AASB 16, decreased by AUD 68.4 million, from AUD 424.7 million to AUD 356.3 million. Net debt benefited from a reduction in working capital in the first half, partially offset by investment in future growth, including acquisitions, new business, and transformation CapEx. Balance date leverage, excluding AASB 16, increased from 2.2x to 2.6x and is above Elders' target range of 1.5x-2x .
Leverage is forecast to return to within target by half year FY 2025, assuming a return to average seasonal conditions. Importantly, Elders' debt covenants maintain significant headroom. This concludes the financial section of the presentation. I'll now pass back to Mark to provide an update on our 4th Eight-Point Plan and discuss the market outlook.
Okay, thanks, Paul. We'll move to slide 28, and with the discussion on the Eight-Point Plan, we're going to focus specifically in on the transform component of it. But firstly, just to give an update on the innovate and grow before we move to those slides. From a business development viewpoint, for the half, we had 21 financial models, so we've still got quite a strong pipeline of both on acquisitions. 21 financial models, 9 non-binding indicative offers, 11 due diligence, and 10 acquisitions, and then the Knight Frank after the close of the half. With an annualized EBIT of 9.7 for the year.
So, our sense, in terms of the innovate and grow, the bolt-on acquisition component, which is a critical component, is intact. From a backward integration viewpoint, which is another part of the grow, we said we'd move from 54% of the addressable market, the off-patent products, that we'd backward integrate to 60%. We fell behind that number in the first half, due to the Q1 and the outlook forecasts, which had us buying third-party product, rather than our own branded product. Our assessment is by the end of this year, by the end of the full year, we'll be back at that 60% target for backward integration.
I think the final point I'd go to, before we move to the detail of the transform slides, is around our ambition of 5%-10% growth through the cycles at a minimum of 10% return on capital. So, the question for us is, you know, in the last three Eight-Point Plans, we've exceeded all of the metrics of that through-the-cycle target. And you know, as we stand now, six months of the 4th Eight-Point Plan, what is our sense? Do we feel that we're going to be able to deliver the promise?
But when we analyze that through to the rest of this Eight-Point Plan, which takes us through to FY 2026, our sense is that we will be able to fit in that range of 5%-10% growth through the cycles, as we've targeted. And looking at how we do that, it's quite interesting, because the retail and backward integration component takes or delivers some 37% of that in our view. Systems modernization and the Streamline project, another 25% of that gap to hit the bottom end of the range. The bolt-on acquisitions, 17%, agency and livestock reset, 11%, and then the wool and formulation projects, 10%.
So from standing back on the commitment that we make to get 5%-10% growth through the cycles, we see some 89% of the uplift required by the end of the Eight-Point Plan is actually in our control. So these are projects that we're running, that are internally driven, and 11% is based on cycles, market conditions, and agri and livestock prices, et cetera. So I think when we look at where we would fit in that range, our sense is, given the normalization of Q1 from this year, with the normalization of Q1, we'll be to the top end of that range, and without the normalization of Q1, we'd be at the bottom end of the range.
So, I think from a confidence in delivering our commitment, we're still on track, and we, as Paul pointed out, with the Q1, Q2 impact, our sense is that you know, we methodically delivered the strategy, as per the 4th Eight-Point Plan, and we're able to deliver the share of the commitments we've made. So moving to the next slide, on slide 29, just focusing on Elders Wool. And I think we talked about this at the full year results. So this project is again on track. We now have the two sites up, and we look forward to inviting everyone to an investor day at the Melbourne site on November 24th this year.
Because it's, it's quite impressive to see the automated vehicles working and how the whole system works through that supply chain. But, largely on track, there's AUD 25 million CapEx we talked about, at the end of last year, and with an 18% return on capital by FY25, that we talked about, with, capacity of 380,000 barrels. So I, I think from our viewpoint, what we have had, and Paul highlighted in the cost and capital discussion, we've had, a bunch of our internal projects come together from an operating cost, cost and, CapEx viewpoint, with SysMod streamline and the Wool project at the same time, and that's reflected in, the costs, with the benefits coming towards the, middle and end of the Eight-Point Plan.
Looking at slide 30, then when we look at systems modernization, we've talked about how we've broken it up into waves. How, as each business case for each wave is approved by the board, we will disclose the numbers. So that's wave two is again on track with July state testing, South Australia. Wave three, signed off, as indicated on this slide, and also with our assessment of the benefits that we've talked about, are also on track. We don't talk about streamline, the rural products supply chain project here, but again, our sense is that's on track to the commitments that we made last November. Moving to outlook, just a quick flick at page 31. The June ABARES outlook estimates will come out shortly, I guess.
But from our viewpoint, if we move to the next slide, our sense is that what we're seeing in the market is that from an East Coast viewpoint, largely, although the response in South Australia and Victoria, where it's where they're still waiting for acceptable winter crop rain. But for the rest of the East Coast, largely, we predicted average, but in some areas it'll be above average. So the outlook through the cropping areas remains positive. This... It's also reflected in some of the comments Paul made earlier on livestock pricing and volumes. Across many of the inputs, we've noted, although price and value is down, volume's up, with inferred market share gains, which fits what, with what we believe is happening as well.
For Western Australia, later season is still dry in a number of areas, although over 50% of the crop has been dry seeded, as we understand. And this, what this means is that there's low inputs, pre- there might be some pre-emergent product and some fertilizer applied, but it, but it does, it does mean that, when the rainfall event occurs, and it will occur, the, that we'd expect significant in-crop weed activity, through the season, which are higher margin products than the pre-emergent and fallow products. So from our viewpoint, things look average, slightly above average as we look at the east, and we maintain our belief that we'll be in the range, the 120-140 range.
So, with that, I'll open up to questions, and please feel free to kick off.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question via the phones, you will need to press the star key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type your question into the Ask A Question box. Your first question comes from William Park with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, Mark and Paul. Thanks for the opportunity, and thanks for your presentation. Just first question is around what you're seeing over the last month and a half across your business units. I mean, you've ... In the slides, you've talked about how the trading conditions are elevated in comparison to prior corresponding period. And gee, I'm just curious to know, curious to understand whether if that momentum has carried through in May. And also just prior to, I guess, you guys going into blackout, I understand there was a bit of a shortfall in your inventory levels to service, I guess, the demand emerging out of Christmas. And just wondering how you're thinking about inventory levels heading into second half as the demand levels progressively step up. Thank you.
Yeah, I think on your first question, and Paul might want to provide greater detail. We've been able to keep the momentum going, which is great. You know, obviously we've got multiple products and services, so it may be higher in one area than the other. But certainly, I think April has shown the continued momentum. You know, so it's expected as we come into to a big winter crop. The winter crop across Australia, regardless of drought, flood, or whatever, only varies by kind of ±10% in any particular area. Our sense is that the assumption of average and the continuing building of momentum makes a lot of sense.
I think where, as I mentioned, with Western Australia, where pre-emergent product, herbicide or fertilizer is not applied because of market conditions, it comes out because you need the NPK to grow the grain. It means that there will be applications later on. So I think we've got that as a bit of a safety net as well. In terms of the inventory, I think you're referring to, well, it was largely coming in the second quarter, where we'd ordered to an El Niño forecast, and we needed to source product from third parties, et cetera. But that's largely been, you know, with our demand planning, that's largely been offset. So Paul, you may want to add some.
Yeah, I think that's right, Mark. The inventory shortage occurred early January in response to rainfall in December. And also, you might recall the DP World issues on the port-
Mm-hmm.
-you know, played a factor there. But, yeah, we're, we're very comfortable with our inventory position, as it stands today.
Thank you. And just the second one is around backward integration. You said you went backward in first half of 2024. Are you suggesting you went back from 54%, or are you saying it sort of landed between 54%-60%, but it's sort of closer to 54% than it is to 60%?
Yeah. No, no, I didn't say we got, we went backward. I said we didn't hit the target. So our plan for the year, last year was 54% of addressable market, and some key products have come off patent this year. So the addressable market's also changed, and the mix of products have changed with the dry conditions, et cetera. So but what I said was that at the end of the first half, and I'll pluck a number, but it'll give you a sense, rather than running at 60%, at that track rate, we're running at just below 30%. And that's fine, because the largest part of the market is the second half.
So our assessment is that we will still hit our 60%, so we'll make up for lost ground in the first half during the second half. So we'll be on track.
Thank you. And just one last one from me. Could you just give us a sense as to how you're thinking about your 12% stake in PGG Wrightson, given you know, the issues there are pretty widely flagged?
Yeah, so it's unchanged, really. So we bought that stake a couple years ago, when the opportunity arose, and the opportunity was that Beijing Food and Agri had central government direction to divest. And so our sense was that although we had no short-term ambitions to move on PGW, we thought that it was prudent to take up the 12% and to sit on it until the time's right. With the dropping of our share price or the pressure on our share price last year, you know, one of the critical metrics that we have for our corporate activity is that it's pre-synergy EPS accretive, and we couldn't hit that target. So our sense is that we'll continue to be patient and to sit.
In the meantime, the PGW has had significant board issues that they've, I think they've sorted out now with their major shareholder. But I think there's a bit of a shaking of confidence in the market for PGW. And there's also been difficult market conditions and lifestyle conditions in New Zealand. We've seen that pressure on their. But they've done trading updates and downgrades and pressure on their share price. But from our viewpoint, we've got, you know, what we need to do and our focus, and I think everyone on the call knows that we're quite methodical in the way we attack these issues and financially driven.
We need to deliver, hopefully at the top of the guidance range of EBIT that we've provided, and we also need to deliver the wave two of our systems modernization project, settle down Elders Wool now that we have that in place, and also deliver the outcomes from our streamline or the rural products project. So from our viewpoint, we've got... We don't need other distractions, and as we've said all along, we have no fast timeline on PGW.
Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Evan Karatzas with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning. Just going through the third Eight-Point Plan. So I'm just trying to get all the numbers here correctly, you talked about in terms of hitting that target. So you're 5%-10% off the AUD 171 million base last year, so it's, well, AUD 200 million-AUD 230 million by FY 2026. Can you just, sorry, just remind me of the buckets that you talked about there, all the different percentages? It was just a bit fast. I didn't catch those clearly.
Yeah, so even though, the, I'll do it very, very broadly,
Yeah.
Which is the way I articulated before. So, so from retail and backward integration, so retail growth, backward integration, which is largely in our control, it, it roughly, it's roughly around 37% of that gap. When we look at the benefits from SysMod and Streamline, those are the two, the supply chain project and systems modernization project, now that's the benefits come through, as you know, FY 2025, FY 2026, and that's around 25% of it. From bolt-on acquisitions, just with our new normal cycle, it's about 17%. For the wool and formulation projects, around 10% as we grow into those with our greenfield in Western Australia on formulation. Wool projects we've talked about, and also the also Eureka, the formulation acquisition in Victoria.
And then the final 11% is around agency livestock reset, which, as I say, it's not in our control, but we think it will continue in line with market assessment. Now, when we say 5%-10%, and again, this is very broad, just to give everyone a feel, we're thinking if Q1 normalizes, as we believe it will, and I think Paul pointed out it was around AUD 37 billion as an average in, in that f ive years.
Over five years, yeah. So if that normalizes, and then we'll be at the top end of the 10% or above it, and if we're completely wrong and it doesn't normalize, we'll be at the bottom, you know, towards the 5%. So I think by all probability we believe it will normalize. So, Paul, do you want to add anything to that?
Yeah, I think the Q1 normalization, I'll make a couple of comments there. And just firstly note is, you know, these are management account numbers. Obviously, we don't board it Q1 versus Q2. But, you know, if you take that as an indicator, the five-year average Q1 contributed AUD 37 million of EBIT. And whilst we haven't given specific numbers for Q1, FY 2024 was, you know, significantly below that. So a normalization of Q1 will certainly, you know, go some way to bridging the gap.
Okay. So I mean, the range is sort of AUD 30 million, so I assume it's somewhere around that number, taking you from the low end to the top end. Okay. So just to follow up on that with the backward integration, so that's 37%. I mean, that's a big, big chunk of it. I take your comments just sort of towards the end of the Titan backward integration. Well, is there any other projects or, I mean, it's a big chunk of it. Do you want to just maybe break that up a little bit more, that initial 37%?
Yeah. So that's retail growth and backward integration. So the size of the pie is also changing because bigger products are coming off patent as well. So there's that dynamic happening as well. But that's in crop protection. In animal health, we're at a very low level of backward integration, as you're aware, and with our specialty fertilizers, so not the high analysis commodity stuff, but specialty fertilizers, we're also at a relatively low level. So there are other buckets in those too.
Okay. All right, so some of the other products. Okay, great. Thanks. I'll, I'll pass it on. Thanks, guys.
Thank you.
Your next, your next question comes from Philip Pepe with Shaw and Partners. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Look, most of mine have been answered. I'll just throw one in on mergers and acquisitions, I suppose. You've touched on a few, but what's the current conditions done to the amount of businesses that have been put up for sale? Farmers battling, putting more for sale or sorry, competitors battling, putting more for sale. Are they, you know, holding off for better times?
. Yeah, that's a good question, Bill. So our pipeline is quite dynamic, as I think everyone's aware. That there are 15 targets in the pipeline now. As Paul mentioned, with the focus on real estate, we have bent our focus to non-rural products businesses, just to keep our portfolio balanced, so that we have like a blend of different exposures, as per similar to investment portfolio.
You know, I think particularly in real estate, we've gained significant momentum where people, if you think of the major players like Knight Frank we talked about, and some of the Ray White players and others, where they have a good experience or a great experience in terms of the acquisition approach, and I think everyone's aware that, like, 90% + of our vendors stay with us after earn-out. So where they have a great experience, we get a lot of referrals from acquired businesses. And so, we've seen that in mainland Australia, and even from the Knight Frank acquisition now, we've had maybe there's 3 or 4 come to us with their thoughts on what we could do next.
So in those areas, we haven't seen a major change in flow. In the crop protection or the rural price areas, I think some businesses, they're feeling stress around capital, and so we're seeing a few come to us. But in the livestock agency ones, where I think the focus of your question was, it hasn't really changed. During the good times, we had a lot of slow acquisitions in livestock because they were making so much money. So they slowed when the prices were high rather than became faster, and now we've got a lot. So we tend not to. It doesn't tend to influence.
The earn-out from our position, the earn-out philosophy of the 3x-5x with 50% completion, 25 year one, 25 year two, means it that they've got 3 years basically to get the to continue to drive the growth of the business for the final earn-out payment, because it's the last payment's the multiplied by the earnings, minus the first two payments. So we haven't really seen it. And I think our focus on real estate is probably and other agencies has been helpful.
Excellent. Thank you.
Your next question comes from James Ferrier with Wilsons Advisory. Please go ahead.
Morning, Mark and Paul. Thanks very much for your time. Can I ask you first of all about the illustration on slide 16, on the right-hand side there, where you're sort of showing that quarterly performance breakdown? Given how strong the recovery was in demand and how strong the trading conditions were through January, February, et cetera, why is the retail line still red in the second quarter?
Yeah, it's a good, it's a good observation, James. I'd say in terms of, in terms of retail, the, there's a couple of elements at play here. Firstly, summer crop was delayed from first quarter to second quarter, so that's part of the improvement. But, in terms of the headwinds for retail versus prior corresponding period, they were still in play, most notably the lower input prices, period on period. And, and so they, they didn't mitigate whilst, you know, client sentiment improved and activity improved, that was still there was still that base effect from the lower prices.
Okay. Yeah, so volume's good, sort of seasonal conditions good, trading conditions, everything good, except that dynamic around lower input prices and the consequence for margins relative to PCP. So as we move through the second half of FY 2024, when does that particular issue become a non-issue, if that makes sense?
Yeah, certainly by Q4. I think it's already a non-issue because, you know, we can see in the presentation that gross margin % is actually higher year-on-year. And so if you look at the declining price plane in FY 2023, we're certainly biased to first half over second, but also, there was margin pressure with that declining plane in FY 2023, that's not evident today. So I think on balance, we've seen that headwinds that's been with the retail business, that's declined.
Okay, understood. Secondly, I wanted to ask you about working capital. So the, you know, really impressive position there at balance date, really good cash conversion. Why was there such an increase in the trade and other payables against a decline in inventory? Often you see those two move in the same direction.
Yeah, another excellent observation. I think it's more to do with prior corresponding period, James. So you'll recall in FY 2023, we had elevated inventory ahead of the winter crop from primarily quickening supply chains. So we just saw product arrive, you know, 2-3 weeks earlier, but it was at the most voluminous time of the year. So that obviously isn't a factor anymore, and so... I think that describes a big chunk of that delta, you know, between inventory and debtors.
Okay, thank you. And last, what I wanted to ask about was on the operating costs, and appreciate your disclosures there. It's very helpful. Slide 22, 23. What struck us is the business did an exceptional job through sort of second half 2022, first half 2023, second half 2023, keeping that operating cost base around sort of the mid AUD 220 million level, all the while continuing to make acquisitions and invest in the business. And despite all of that incremental activity, that cost base stayed reasonably flat. And as we move into this first half of 2024 result, again, there's still more growth activity taking place, acquisitions, transformation, et cetera. But the cost base has stepped up meaningfully to AUD 247.
I'm just trying to work out what's different in this half versus the preceding three halves that might explain such a divergence on the cost base.
Yeah. One factor, James, is staff incentives, you know, coming from FY 2022 to FY 2023. Given the dropdown in EBIT, they were materially lower. So that's certainly a factor, and I think outside of that, it's just the volume of growth activity in FY 2024 versus the previous years. We have made some, you know, medium-sized acquisitions in FY 2024 and obviously 11 acquisitions year to date, but also with Elders Wool, which is not insignificant in terms of the cost to the business. The other observation I'd make is around, you know, the transformational projects piece. The majority of that is depreciation, and that's, you know, obviously flowing from the CapEx in system change, primarily, that's starting to flow through the P&L.
Yeah, understood. Thanks, Paul. That's helpful.
Your next question comes from Ben Way with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, Mark and Paul, thanks for taking the question. Just a couple of quick ones from me. Just on, just looking at that cost slide, see the increase in property and lease costs of AUD 4.5 million or so. Do you mind just unpacking that a little more as well, what the drivers were there?
Yeah, absolutely, Ben. The material element to that is, is Elders Wool. So we've got two leases there, one that's new to the business, in FY 2024, which is the most significant one, out in Ravenhall in Victoria. And you'll get a sense for, for why that is, on the Investor Day, in November. It's, it's a substantial facility. Outside of that, it's typically CPI, flowing through those, those lease agreements, so they all have that, CPI, uplift in it. I think, as a corporate, we're fairly well placed in that regard, having, you know, regional or by and large, regionally located leases, but it's still a, you know, still a significant growth factor.
Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just building on James' question there around sort of working capital and cash flow. I think you still have to go back to 2018 to see a sort of working capital release in the first half. So if you could just sort of talk us through what your expectations are for second half working capital and how that sort of ties into your AUD 50 million working capital release for the full year as well with Project Streamline.
Yeah. Good, good question. We see continued working capital release in the business in the second half. There's a couple of internal initiatives that we've got still to flow through those numbers. And I'd say as well, in terms of average working capital, you can see that that's still elevated above prior year at this stage. I'd expect, yeah, average working capital to continue to trend down. And that is part of the reason for our confidence around, you know, the improvement in ROC in the second half, albeit we don't expect, you know, to fully get to above hurdle until we, you know, until we replace the first half of FY 2024 with FY 2025.
Got it. Thank you. That's all from me.
Your next question comes from Jonathan Snape with Bell Potter. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Just a couple of questions again. First of all, just on the costs in the wholesale business, they're up almost AUD 5 million year-on-year. What was the driver there?
Yeah, so they've got some additional warehouse costs there up in Brisbane and preparatory work for Rockhampton, yeah, as well, and down in Tassie. Yep, so yeah, that's primarily related to growth.
Okay. And look, I notice... If I can ask around the ag chem side a bit. In the first half, what would have been the year-on-year movement in the contribution from Titan? Like, I imagine you didn't sell much, if anything, coming through there. Was it material?
Yeah, I think we'll come back, take the opportunity to come back to you on that, John. I haven't looked at that number or have that to hand, but we'll take that offline.
Okay. Look, can I just check if I heard a number right? Mark, did you say that Knight Frank was a 9.7 million annualized EBIT contribution on the acquisition earlier, or did I make that number up?
Yeah. Yeah, no, the, no, what I said was that the 10 acquisitions had an annualized EBIT contribution of-
That's the 10 acquisitions that have already been done today. Does that include Knight Frank or not?
No, it occurred in this second half.
Okay. Should we just assume with that one that, you know, your, your normal 4-5x multiple is applicable there, or is there, or is that one a little more expensive given the scale of it?
Yeah. Yeah, well, as you know, if they're at the higher end of EBIT, they're at a higher multiple. So assume that it's at the top end.
Okay. Okay, so if I'm looking at it, I mean, you should get some annualized benefits of these acquisitions that probably didn't have much the first half, you know, a bit in the second half, but probably more so in 2025. Knight Frank, you're gonna get half of it, but then half of it next year. I think I saw your wool things about 5 in additional EBIT. The SysMod, you know, if you're spending AUD 70 million or AUD 80 million on the first three stages, you kind of hope you'd be getting your 15% return on that sort of stuff. So that should be a 10 million-15 million drop, and then it looks like the first quarter. No, it's probably a 15 million-20 million hit in its own right. Am I doing, like, math on the run, looking at your own internal-
Yeah, I think first quarter, as Paul indicated, the 10-year average is-
Yeah, AUD 37 million.
AUD 37 million.
Yeah, it was, yeah, well, well below that.
Yeah, okay. So it, you know, doesn't look like you made much at all, if anything, in the first quarter. All right, and look, just on average net debt in the second half, you know, given where you've come out and exited through the first half, you know, obviously, if the season starts to move pretty quickly the way here, you'd imagine inventory's gonna flow in and flow out fairly quickly as well. Would you anticipate that being down year- on- year at this stage?
Versus prior corresponding periods?
Yeah, 'cause you carried a lot more inventory for a lot longer last year, if I remember correctly, than you probably thought.
Yeah, certainly working capital will be down. Obviously, net debt brings in, you know, acquisition spend and-
Yeah.
CapEx and dividends as well. So there's a few moving parts there, but, yeah, perhaps we take that one offline as well.
Yep. All right, great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Belinda Moore with Morgans. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Mark and Paul. Look, can I just check, was the first quarter sort of break even to slightly unprofitable? Second, if I look at the back of your accounts, is it correct you've paid as much as AUD 50.7 million for Knight Frank? And then, yeah, are we applying about 6x, as, as Jon asked? And then just lastly, CapEx guidance. Thank you.
Yeah, I think I'll do the difficult one. Yes, to your first question, Belinda. Paul?
In terms of Knight Frank, Belinda, so there's an upfront portion to that acquisition and then some, you know, some performance from there now, you know, behind that. So yeah, we haven't disclosed the detail of that arrangement. And your final question?
Oh, CapEx.
CapEx, yeah. So CapEx outlook. So we're at the peak of CapEx in wave two. We have obviously released wave three CapEx at you know, AUD 10 million-AUD 13 million. So we you know, we're sort of at now the peak in CapEx spend in Elders and certainly through the system transformation process.
Thank you. Your final question is a webcast question from Richard McDougall with Flinders Investment Partners. This reads: Have your third-party purchase needs and crop protection now normalized, and what is the impact on margin, if it has?
The question was, how does it normalize?
The third-party supply normalized.
Oh, yes, yes. Yeah, so our plan was to gradually move to 70% of off-patent or address chemistry or what we call addressable market within Elders to our backward integrated Titan and own products. So, but we've been doing that over a number of years with, in discussion with, our mainstream suppliers. And so what's happened is that, obviously, that's our plan. We've been transparent on it, and we've progressed to do that. Where products come off-patent now, we work closely with them in order to use their active ingredients in our home branded backward integrated products.
And obviously, there's a trade-off on margin, but it certainly allows them to continue to grow with us. And I think from our viewpoint, you know, we need many of the third parties who are also multinational proprietary discovery companies. And our decision to take it to 70% as the maximum was to allow us to still take generics from them, while getting access to their proprietary chemistry.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Allison for closing remarks.
Okay. Well, thank you very much, and thank you all for coming on. Many of you we'll be talking with over the next week, so look forward to catching up. Paul and I enjoy the meetings. Thanks very much.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.