McMillan Shakespeare Limited (ASX:MMS)
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Feb 22, 2022

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to McMillan Shakespeare Limited's FY 2022 Half-Year Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, the 23rd of February, 2022. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Mike Salisbury, MD and CEO at MMS. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Eva, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our half year results presentation for the 2022 financial year. I trust you're all well. My name is Mike Salisbury, and I'm joined this morning by our Chief Financial Officer, Ashley Conn. Firstly, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the lands across Australia and recognize their cultures and continuing connection to land. I'm speaking from Melbourne, which is the traditional country of the people of the Kulin Nation, and I pay my respect to their elders, past and present. Before we move to the details in the pack, I'd like to make a few opening comments. Firstly, we delivered an improved operating performance in the half, with revenues up 25.8% at AUD 311.6 million and underlying net profit after tax of AUD 40 million.

This result was achieved off the back of strong customer demand, together with elevated yields benefiting novated leasing and our A sset Management businesses. In an environment of constrained new vehicle supply, delays in vehicle delivery have further grown our novated carryover volume to seven times pre-pandemic levels, equating to approximately AUD 19 million in additional expected future revenues. While the auto supply conditions are expected to remain for at least the balance of this current year, we continue to respond and ensure our businesses are best positioned to leverage off this ongoing dynamic. Importantly, we've continued to focus on our key priorities, including delivering strong organic customer growth in salary packaging, plan management, and support coordination, together with growth in novated lease orders and finance originations across our broker network.

Our ongoing investments in our digital channels and complementing strong organic growth in our NDIS-related businesses with the successful acquisition of Plan Tracker, the diversification of our funding sources through the establishment of our own warehouse facility, and further developing and executing on our sustainability initiatives. Additionally, in our presentation today, you will see our new segment structure for the group. With the growth of Plan Partners and following the divestment of our warranty business, we have realigned and simplified our business segments. Importantly, these changes better reflect our strategic priorities and enable greater segment focus across the business. As we move to the first half's highlights, I'm very pleased with our performance in the period, the strength and diversity of our customer base, and of course, the ongoing efforts, commitment, and engagement of our people across the group. Turning to slide two.

It's clear that that diversity, which sits across the markets and jurisdictions that we operate in, our customer and client demographics, and our product and service offerings, has heightened importance when we've been operating in such unique times. I'm confident that it positions us well for the periods ahead. In focusing ahead, as a group, we've spent considerable time revisiting our guiding principles, resulting in a revised purpose, vision, and values for the group. Importantly, we've also furthered our focus on our sustainability and ESG related initiatives, and I'll talk to both these initiatives in a few moments. Operationally, our GRS business experienced strong client renewals, retaining all key contracts and achieving significant new business wins, which contributed to positive salary packaging growth.

Novated lease customer order rates remain strong, up on a strong first half 2021 and increasing our carryover, which stands to benefit future periods, as I've mentioned. In our new Plan and Support Services segment, post the successful integration of New South Wales-based plan management provider, Plan Tracker, we continued to experience strong participation growth, up 69% to a little under 23,000 customers. In our Asset Management businesses here and in New Zealand and the U.K., with the global automotive supply dynamic and the demand for high-quality used vehicles, all experienced very favorable residual value conditions, which are continuing. Our RFS business delivered 27% NPAT growth from a 30% lift in net amount finance, while we also successfully completed the divestment of our warranty business in September 2021. As you can see, the group's balance sheet and cash position remains strong.

The interim dividend of AUD 0.34 per share, fully franked, represents a payout ratio of around 66% of underlying NPAT. Now on slide three, I'd like to briefly touch on our new purpose, vision, and values for the MMS Group. Our company purpose and values inform how we think and behave, both with one another and in the marketplace. Just on 12 months ago, we launched a comprehensive review of our guiding principles as an organization, with the aim of creating a new unifying platform for the next five years of MMS, while ensuring that we retain and enhance the strong culture already embedded in the group. We undertook extensive consultation with both our people and our customers, starting with defining our core purpose, our fundamental belief.

While we looked at many themes and ideas, ultimately, we determined that making a difference to people's lives transcended and encompassed all others as it related to MMS and what we do. This thinking also helped refine and shape our vision and values, and will very much guide what we do and the way we act and behave as a unified group moving forward. Moving to slide 4 now, and our new segment structure that I mentioned in my introduction. You can see that we've instituted a platform across the group of three dedicated segments: namely Group Remuneration Services, Plan and Support Services, and Asset Management Services. GRS or Group Remuneration Services consists of our novated and salary packaging businesses, Maxxia and RemServ, together with our new novated financing facility, Onboard Finance.

As I referred to earlier, our NDIS and related businesses, Plan Partners and Plan Tracker which previously resided in our GRS segment, are now reported in a new standalone segment in an exciting evolution for the group. Thirdly, our aggregation business now forms part of our broader Asset Management segment, together with our Australian and New Zealand and U.K. Asset Management businesses. We believe the realignment of our segment better reflects our strategic priorities, while enabling more defined segment focus over the long term. We've again included a group UNPATA bridge on slide 5, which provides a summary of the UNPATA changes by segment against the first half of FY 2021, and I'll talk to the individual segment performances shortly. Turning to the key operational dashboard on slide 6, you can broadly see the performance across each of the segments.

My key call-outs here are, in GRS, we saw a return to meaningful growth in salary packages under management, with an additional 6,500 growth and new business wins. In novated, customer demand remains positive, with orders up 4% and carry over levels up 154% on the same time last year, and now over seven times first half 2020 levels. Plan and Support Services, which continued to be mostly unaffected by COVID-19 and associated public health restrictions, achieved strong customer and market share growth. Customers up 69% through the combination of continued organic growth together with the acquisition of Plan Tracker. We saw a 4% reduction in the overall fleet value in our Asset Management businesses, driven primarily by the runoff of our on-balance sheet assets in the U.K.

Improved consumer and business confidence has seen increased activity and higher asset values in this period, reflected in the 7% lift in finance originations across the group to just shy of AUD 1.5 billion. On slide 7, we've once again provided our thoughts and expectations of the automotive sector and the associated vehicle supply challenges. I know that this is a topic that everyone is very familiar with, and I don't intend to talk in any detail to this issue today. Our view around the normalizing of the new and used car market remains unchanged, in that we're expecting auto supply to remain a challenge at least through the end of this calendar year, with some improvement anticipated from early 2023.

Just before I pass over to Ashley to speak to the financials in more detail, I'd like to spend a few moments talking about our sustainability strategy and the pleasing progress we've made during the period. This strategy responds to key environmental, social, and governance risks and opportunities for the group, including taking action on climate change, supporting greater accessibility and social inclusion, and our community engagement activities. In respect to taking action on climate change, we are pursuing our pathway to net zero carbon emissions across our own operations. During the period, we took a significant step towards reducing our emissions by sourcing 100% of renewable energy for all controllable Australian sites. Initiatives are also underway to support our customers in their transitions to a low carbon future, including our active promotion of low and zero-emission vehicles across our brands.

The health and wellbeing of our people remained a key priority for the group during the period, as the vast majority of our staff continued to work remotely. We invested in the development of our leaders to enable and equip them to support our people. We achieved a sustainable engagement score of 85% in our last survey, which reflects the level of support provided, the quality and consistency in our communication, and the focus on being better together through teamwork and collaboration. Furthermore, to support greater accessibility and social inclusion across our business and our communities, we are well progressed in developing our first accessibility and inclusion plan and our first Reconciliation Action Plan. These plans, scheduled to be launched during FY 2022, will drive our efforts to create better opportunities for First Nations Australians and for our people and customers living with disabilities.

I'll now pass over to Ashley to speak to the company's financial performance.

Ashley Conn
CFO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Over the next few minutes, I'll be talking to the consolidated performance, balance sheet, cash flow, and provide an update on the warehouse. I'll then hand back to Mike to speak in greater detail about the individual segment performance. I'd like to start on page 10 that sets out, as Mike said, group NPATA, underlying net profit after tax and amortization of AUD 40 million, which is an increase of 12.8% versus PCP, excluding the contribution from JobKeeper, which we're using for PCP comparative purposes. JobKeeper's impact was AUD 7.3 million after tax in the first half of FY 2021. The statutory net profit after tax was AUD 30.1 million, which was up 66% versus PCP.

This includes an AUD 6 million impairment for the CLM business in the UK, which has now been written down to its net tangible asset value to reflect the lower sales volume that the business is experiencing in this auto market. It also includes the loss and loan finance charge of AUD 1.3 million relating to the disposal of the warranty business, which was previously announced and completed during the half. The details on this and other NPATA adjustments can be found in the appendix. EBITDA increased to AUD 59.5 million, up 3.2% for the half. The improvement was due to strong operational performance across the business, led by customer growth, elevated yields in Novated and Asset Management, and an improved performance from the U.K. business. Mike will walk through this in detail shortly.

Underlying earnings per share was AUD 0.517, which was up 12.9%. An interim fully franked dividend of AUD 0.34 per share has been declared, which represents 66% of NPATA. Free cash flow for the half was a strong AUD 37.8 million, or 95% of NPATA, and I will discuss this in more detail in a few moments. Group return on equity and capital employed were 28.4% and 33.6% respectively as we continue to focus on capital efficiency. The balance sheet. Page 11, slide 11 provides a breakdown of MMS's balance sheet as a group, and importantly, also splits between the Asset Management businesses in Australia, New Zealand and the U.K., and the aggregate position of our other businesses, GRS, our new segment, PSS, RFS and corporate.

We continue to have a strong balance sheet with a net cash position, excluding fleet funded debt of AUD 115.7 million, which has created capacity for future growth. Total debt is AUD 229 million, and this includes lease liabilities and Asset Management's fleet funded debt, and results in net debt to EBITDA of 0.8 times and gearing of 26%. Other leverage metrics, such as our interest coverage at 30.7, are significantly within our bank covenants. In Asset Management, total debt is now AUD 175 million, resulting in a gearing ratio of 65% of written down value of the fleet assets, materially below our 80% bank covenant. Cash flow. Turning to the cash flow slide on page 12, which splits out into our three segments plus corporate and unallocated.

The group generated free cash flow before fleet funding of AUD 37.8 million, compared to NPATA of AUD 40 million. A 95% conversion, as I mentioned before. Capital expenditure for the half totaled AUD 4.8 million. Net fleet assets on our balance sheet declined by AUD 6.3 million. AUD 20.1 million of cash was transferred with the sale of the warranty business in September 2021, and the net cash impact from our Plan Tracker acquisition was AUD 10.7 million. Consequently, as a result of these sources and applications of funds during the period, our cash on hand now sits at AUD 131 million. On slide 13, I'd like to talk to the warehouse and provide an update in relation to where we are with the warehouse.

We have the technology, systems, and all necessary personnel in place for the warehouse to write its first lease. With the final important step being receipt of the credit license approval from ASIC. Our objectives, strategic rationale, and implementation strategy all remain the same. This includes continuing to target a ramp-up to 20% of volume through the warehouse, which we expect to hit during the first half of FY 2023. Although this obviously remains subject to final timing of receipt of the approval from ASIC. Although we had originally, our original expectation was to receive the credit approval by now, we are prepared to wait for the ASIC process to play out, and have no reason to believe that approval will not be granted. We currently anticipate that we will receive the license in March this year.

Importantly, the impact to UNPATA is assumed to now be between AUD 2 million-AUD 3 million for FY 2022. We had previously stated that our assumption was AUD 4 million-AUD 5 million in FY 2022. That's all from me. I'd like to now hand back to Mike.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Ashley. Now turning to the specific segments, and starting with GRS on slide 15. At AUD 100.5 million, our revenue was only marginally up for the half, which understates the true performance of the business. Activity has been strong in the period, as evidenced by the fact we've successfully renewed all key contracts during the half and grown our customers by around 6,500 packages. Pleasingly, we've seen a number of tier one new business wins, which will support growth in the second half as they transition from 1 April. Notwithstanding the extended restrictions in New South Wales and Victoria, we've driven higher customer inquiry and increased our novated order rates by 4% over the same time last year, while also delivering higher average yields from the inflated retail pricing in the auto market.

In contrast, auto supply continues to be a headwind. In the past six months, our forward orders have grown from five times pre-COVID levels at the end of June 2021 to seven times as of 31 December, with approximately AUD 19 million of additional revenue to benefit future periods. The operating performance and profit in the period reflect the ongoing investment in growth in our core business and this deferral of revenues. We're showing the movement in orders, sales, carryover, and yields on slide 17. As we look to the outlook and on the basis of forward orders and the scheduled delivery dates, we expect to see a larger uplift in settlements in the second half than what we would ordinarily see in pre-COVID periods. Yields are also expected to remain at the current elevated levels.

As mentioned earlier, our combined plan management and support coordination businesses have seen the creation of a new dedicated segment, Plan and Support Services. This decision reflects the emerging and future growth inherent within these businesses and their contribution to overall group performance. Plan management supports participants to manage their NDIA-approved budgets and assists participants to make the best decisions about their supports with the help of our network and knowledge of local and national service providers. Support coordination works with scheme participants one-on-one to find and manage supports aligned to their individual goals. Both services are fee-based, funded directly by the National Disability Insurance Scheme. We note that the number of NDIS participants is expected to now grow to more than 850,000 people by June 2030, up from the 500,000 participants supported by the scheme at the end of the half.

As reported recently in the NDIS quarterly report, there also continues to be a significant shift to plan management, with an increasing number of participants choosing to use a plan manager rather than have the agency manage their plan. Over the past two years, the proportion of participants who use a plan manager has increased from 35%- 53%, respectively. Turning to slide 19 and the highlights from the half in our Plan and Support Services business. Pleasingly, the business continued to gain market share with Plan Management customer growth of 69% to 22,729 customers by period end. Additionally, the business delivered around 26,000 hours of support coordination in the half, a 19% increase on PCP. Customer growth was supported by the acquisition of Plan Tracker on 1 July 2021, with the integration on track and progressing well.

Revenue of AUD 19.5 million was up 63.6% on PCP. UNPATA of AUD 2.9 million was up marginally, reflecting significant investment made during the period in people, technology and brand to further expand our services to our customers and to generate future growth. It also reflects the inclusion of group overhead costs, which are now fully allocated to PSS. Looking forward, we'll continue to drive organic growth through customer acquisition and retention, while investments in system integration across our Plan and Support Services brands to improve overall efficiency rates and margins will progress over the remainder of the calendar year. We'll also continue to explore appropriate M&A opportunities in this market as they arise. Turning now to slide 21, and the performance of our Asset Management business, both here in Australia and New Zealand, which delivered a strong profit uplift.

The business achieved revenue of AUD 92.4 million and NPATA of AUD 9.7 million, an increase of 21.8% and 47.2% respectively on H1 2021. As we said at the full year, and which remains the case, the restrictions in new vehicle supply are hampering current new business volumes while presenting challenges in replacing assets that have reached their end of contract. By period end, our pipeline of vehicles on order had increased around four times historical levels. However, and importantly, this dynamic continues to be offset by unprecedented demand for used vehicles, resulting in higher yields through wholesale and retail remarketing channels. The performance of our two retail yards in New South Wales and Victoria was strong contributors to the result, notwithstanding the impact of increased COVID restrictions throughout much of the half.

As outlined on slide 22, remarketing yields for the half were at 255% of pre-COVID levels. Vehicle return rates continued to slow during the period due to vehicle supply shortages, leading to a rise in extensions. When combined with our average lead time to procure new vehicles, our overall written down value of assets under management remained flat over the half at AUD 311 million. These elevated used vehicle yields and subdued new car supply are expected to continue at least to the end of the 2022 calendar year. Moving to our businesses in the U.K., which have continued to witness a significant turnaround in performance. As a result of restructuring undertaken in FY 2021 and the tailwinds from elevated used car prices and remarketing yields, our businesses experienced strong revenue and profit growth as the country moved out of COVID-19 lockdowns.

Revenue of AUD 74.1 million and NPATA of AUD 5.4 million were materially up on the previous period. It should be noted that a profit result benefited from a one-off tax credit of AUD 2.4 million. The lifting of restrictions and the gradual improvement in business confidence contributed to a 2% increase in off-balance sheet originations in Anglo Scottish at just short of AUD 400 million. On slide 24, we've included a chart that shows the runoff of the Maxxia Finance portfolio, currently at around AUD 37 million, which has reduced by about half over the six-month period. Much of the book is scheduled to run off over the next 12 months, which should see a continuation of strong remarketing revenue over that period.

As Ashley has already spoken to, the recovery anticipated in the CLM Fleet Management business post the lockdowns has not eventuated given the business's strong reliance on vehicle supply to support their operating model. Given the expected headwinds from ongoing auto supply challenges beyond this financial year, an impairment of the goodwill associated with the CLM business has been recognized in the half. For the final time, I'll close the segment reporting with a snapshot of RFS on slide 25. As you can see, NPATA at AUD 2 million was up on first half 2021. This result was driven by the aggregation business, which continued to perform well, with finance originations up 30% on PCP to AUD 588 million, the highest origination level since acquiring the business in 2015.

The increased net amount finance was in part generated through a higher average deal size, up 11%, again, a result of the buoyant new and used vehicle prices across the auto market. Aggregation NPATA was up AUD half a million to AUD 2.2 million on a standalone basis compared with first half 2021. Also in the half, we completed the divestment of the warranty business, and whilst this resulted in a loss on disposal of AUD 1.2 million, this was an important transaction as part of our broader group strategy. In closing, the business continues to perform well, delivering an improved revenue and profit result for the half.

Importantly, and despite the disruptions over nearly two years now to the way in which we work, our people are highly engaged, and we have a workforce who are aligned to our purpose of making a difference to people's lives. Our balance sheet and cash position remain strong with capacity for growth. Whilst as a group, we continue to pursue customer growth, enhancements to our digital capability, diversification of our funding sources through the implementation of our warehouse, and opportunities for acquisitions where appropriate. Of course, our focus on sustainability has never been stronger or more focused. Looking forward, the trading conditions relating to constrained supply in the global automotive market are anticipated to continue through until at least the end of 2022 calendar year. This means further benefit to the group in terms of expected novated lease yields and end of lease remarketing income.

Significant new customer wins during the period in GRS will aid future growth across both salary packaging and novated leasing. In Plan and Support Services, we'll continue to grow market share as the NDIS matures with increased adoption of plan management and support coordination services. We will also continue to explore opportunities for further consolidation in this market. While COVID remains a variable, the group and its people remain well prepared to respond to further changes in conditions as and if necessary. As always, we sincerely thank our people for their commitment and amazing efforts during what has been and continues to be a challenging time. I'll now hand back to Eva for any questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the pound or hash key. Once again, it is star one to ask a question. Your first question comes from the line of Paul Buys from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Oh, morning, Mike, Ashley. First question, just on GRS. I guess as restrictions are getting progressively lifted across most states, I was just curious to know if you think the business needs to pick up any costs as the restrictions are lifted in terms of kind of changing dynamic with your sales force? Or do you think your cost base is right sized for future conditions?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

No, it's right sized, Paul. We didn't have, you know, a lot of standdowns in the GRS business. We continued to maintain that higher activity level, so we retained all of our people. We don't anticipate any requirement to, you know, to add a significant number of new heads into the business.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thank you. On the novated lease side, you know, you spoke about the benefit you're getting from the yield side from retail new car prices. Just curious to think about your outlook on yields specifically going forward. You're getting a new car price benefit on yields. Presumably, the overall mix is a bit more skewed to used cars than it has been in the past, which I would imagine provides some kind of offset. Just keen to put that to you and see what you think sort of, you know, the short- to medium-term outlook for yields would be.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Look, our yields, you know, as we've got in the presentation, are up and have been, you know, significantly up over the last 12 months, really. That's notwithstanding that there's a higher percentage of re-lease volume or refinance volume in our book than what we would have had pre-pandemic. We know we've got, you know, a higher percentage of used vehicles in the mix already, but that, you know, higher yield that we're currently running is very reflective of the increase in the retail price in the market. The forward orders that we have are on the basis of that higher retail price, which is, you know, our view around the ability to maintain those higher yields, you know, at least for the balance of this calendar year, Paul.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Then beyond that, Mike, no kind of I guess what I'm just trying to work out is as the environment normalizes, you realize the kind of that order gap, and then we start trending to something more normalized. I'm just trying to work out if there's a kind of an offset through a significant step down in yields. That's why I'm just seeing what the current yields are carrying.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Well, I guess that depends on how quickly the retail market adjust their pricing for a, you know, more competitive marketplace, Paul. We don't see that as being, you know, something that's going to happen overnight. It's going to be more gradual as volume returns across the different makes and models. We would expect that at some point the retail price, you know, might return closer to where it was historically. We'd also anticipate that the number of new vehicles in our overall portfolio would increase as the refinances go back to normal levels.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

We're giving the comparisons at 2020 as to the movement in our yields. We've seen no change in our yields on the basis of any of the insurance changes. As I said, the yields are currently inflated as a consequence of higher retail pricing, which is expected to be maintained for the balance of this calendar year, at least.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thank you. Then last one from me, just on PSS. Obviously, you know, business performing well, particularly strong revenue growth. I guess not much translating to, you know, to the bottom line in terms of an equivalent growth rate. You called out all the investment done in the business. Just wanted to get an idea of how much more investment you know, you think you require in the business, and then when do you expect to see some scale benefits in terms of or some leverage, operating leverage in terms of that revenue growth flowing through to the bottom line?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. You know, quite a considerable amount of the investment in the first half, Paul, is one-off, and we would expect to see improvements in margin in the second half.

Paul Buys
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Okay. Thank you. Thanks very much. That's all for me.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phillip Chippindale from Ord Minnett. Please ask your question.

Phillip Chippindale
Technology Analyst, Ord Minnett

Oh, hi, Mark and Ashley. Thanks for your time. Firstly, just on the GRS segment, just wondering if you could paint a picture for us in terms of access to workplaces. Obviously with restrictions starting to unwind, can you give us a sort of current state of play as to how good the access situation is in order to get access to employees, so that you can happily sell them, you know, novated leases and the like?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. There's probably two sides to that discussion, Phillip. Firstly, you know, principally the health networks, the restrictions are still being maintained, understandably, given the pressure on that network. In some industries, the restrictions have been lifted almost entirely and, you know, we have protocols both at an employer level, but also for our staff in regards to, you know, how each of us are required to conduct ourselves if we are going on site, which, you know, I don't think would be a surprise to anyone. There are certainly not the level of access today that we had pre the pandemic, but in contrast to that, our access via the digital channels is, you know, far advanced to what it was back in, you know, calendar year 2019.

You know, we have pivoted the way that we have continued to connect and educate the customer base, which I think is reflected in, you know, the higher order rates and increased opportunity that we're seeing, you know, through that channel. You know, we will maintain a higher digital contact structure with our client base moving forward, but also blend that with on-site access when restrictions lift.

Phillip Chippindale
Technology Analyst, Ord Minnett

Okay. Thanks. Just sticking to the Plan Partners business for a minute. You know, you've given us some numbers there with around 22,000 customers, so that looks like it's around 4% market share, you know, plus or minus. Just looking, you know, to the long term, do you have a target in terms of where you're trying to get to, you know, could we see a doubling of that market share organically, you know, in the longer term, or is that perhaps a bit too aggressive? I guess part of that question is really a reflection of the competition as well. Yeah, just like some color around that.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. Look, our ambitions, Phillip, and I apologize for calling you Paul previously. Phillip, our ambitions are, you know, to at least double in size and then more so. You know, our ambitions are to be significantly the largest provider in this space and to be able to make a difference, you know, to the people who are participants in the NDIS. You talk about a market share of the overall current participants as opposed to the market share of those who are being serviced through plan management, seeing the increase in customers who are seeing the value in outsourcing to plan managers like ourselves, and we expect that level of market share to increase as well as our own market share of those participants within the outsourced plan management space.

Our organic growth anticipated to be very strong continuing, but we're also interested in supplementing that organic growth through M&A where appropriate, as we did with Plan Tracker at the beginning of the financial year.

Phillip Chippindale
Technology Analyst, Ord Minnett

Thanks. Just finally, I just wanted to touch on the warehouse facilities. This might be a question for yourself or for Ashley. Can you just maybe unpack why the delay? I guess, trying to understand, is this about the timing of the submission, or has it just been a delay on the regulator side? Just to follow on, after you get the credit license, are there any other items that need to be ticked or achieved before, you know, you issue that first lease.

Ashley Conn
CFO, McMillan Shakespeare

It's Ashley here. Why don't I answer the second part first, if I can. There's nothing else that we need. This is the last piece of the puzzle. As soon as we get it, we'll just push some details through the system, and we should be ready to go in a matter of days afterwards, to write our first lease. Just in terms of timing, as I said, we don't have any expectation that we won't get it. Unfortunately, it's just the way the process has played out and, you know, the ball's in ASIC's court. You know, we continue to have a dialogue with them. There's no reason to believe we won't get it, as I said.

Unfortunately, it's just the time that it's taken.

Phillip Chippindale
Technology Analyst, Ord Minnett

Okay, thanks. That's all from me. I'll jump back in the queue.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Phillip.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Lawson from Macquarie. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Hi, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a follow-up to one of the earlier ones. Just you called out the sort of one-offs in that, the PSS segment. Can you sort of quantify that and whether you think that will flow through to profitability in the second half?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah, look, we're not putting a dollar figure on it, Tim, but you know, you will see a stronger second half profit performance and improvement in margin. Some of that is coming directly from one-off expenses not being repeated in the second half. We'll also see improvements in the Plan Tracker margin, which was part of the attractiveness of the opportunity with Plan Tracker, both you know, from a cultural perspective, they were very aligned with the business that we'd built and had built a successful business. We also saw opportunities to bring their margins to where Plan Partners' margins currently are. Work's being done over the last six months, which will see benefits flow in the second half from that aspect as well.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay. Just on the end of lease income, just the numbers in the U.K. look a bit unusual with the number of units in the first half 2021, you know, materially above first half 2020. The profits indexed to first half 2020 have done the opposite, and then the second half 2022 sort of reversed around. I'm just trying to understand what's happened there. Also just for Australia as well, can you talk more about the contribution? Obviously, we've given percentages here, but unless I'm unaware of it, we've never had an actual net number of contributions, so I'm not sure how helpful those percentages are.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

In the U.K., the biggest difference between the beginning of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 was that the U.K. was in lockdown in the prior year, and we had accumulated around 400 assets from our clients in the peak of the first lockdown in that marketplace, and there was no avenue to dispose of those assets. We really accumulated significant volumes. The markets were deflated, and when the markets did open, we moved those assets at, you know, certainly a much softer yield than what we've done since the markets have opened up fully and the demand for used cars has really replicated what we're seeing here in Australia.

In the first half of 2022, you see that we've had assets coming back from our clients, and we've been able to utilize channels to maximize returns. That's the difference in the U.K. In Australia, we've shown historically a pie chart that shows the revenue contribution from residual value in the Australian and New Zealand business. We've done that again this half. That gives you an indication of the contribution to the overall revenue in the segment, Tim.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Yes.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

As far as profit contribution, we haven't called that out previously.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

You can expect, you know, it's been a much stronger contributor to the profit in, you know, the last 12 months than it has historically.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah, that's great. Just the AUD 19 million on the novated sort of carryover, how have you actually calculated that? What assumptions underlie that?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

The AUD 19 million represents the increase over what would ordinarily have been a normal pipeline pre-COVID. This is over and above the carryover, and it reflects the orders that are in the pipeline today, so finance approved and orders placed with dealers. We've applied our 2%-3% cancellation rate to those numbers, so that's incorporated in that AUD 19 million calculation. It's effectively the unit number by the yield that is based on the financed amount for the retail price of those cars which are locked in. You know, fortunately, in the consumer behavior that we've seen is demand remains strong and there hasn't been any change in that cancellation rate really over the last 18 months. Customers have been very sticky.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay. You note that the 87% increase in NDIS in that sort of longer term estimate from regional expectations. Do you anticipate that the structure of the NDIS will change in response to that? How do you think that your position is placed with regard to potential changes?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

We don't expect fundamental changes to the scheme, Tim. We're very engaged with the NDIA and also with the minister's office, et cetera. You know, it is a reflection of the need that exists within the country and an increase in those assessments by the NDIA over the last four years to provide the updated forecast. Look, you know, we see our contribution to the success of the scheme as being significant, and we think the more participants that we can support through the program, the better the outcomes that will be achieved. That's certainly how we've positioned our discussions and interactions with the NDIA and with the, you know, the parties on both sides of the political fence.

Tim Lawson
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from the line of Richard Amland from CLSA. Please ask your question.

Richard Amland
Director of Equity Research, CLSA

Hi, good morning, gents. Just trying to get a bit of a better handle on what to expect on the outlook for the U.K. business. Seems like you guys had a very good result, and that was a bit of a surprise to us and it buoyed the whole company results. Getting a flavor for where we go from here, because I thought with the asset base of that business declining that the business would shrink. Can you give us some ideas on where that's going?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, Richard. Yes. You know, we've provided the run-off of the on-balance sheet assets in the slide deck. As I said, it's reduced by about 50% over the last 12 months, and the book will largely run off over the next 12- 18 months with a lion's share in the next 12 months. You know, while those assets come back from clients and the market stays bullish, then we expect to have strong residual value profits on those assets. As you say, once those assets are all sold, then it's a non-repeatable revenue source for us because the book is being run off to zero. Certainly over the next 12 months, we expect those returns to be, you know, in the magnitude of what we've been able to deliver in the last six months.

As far as outlook for the rest of the business, the asset broking business, Anglo Scottish, continues to see improved levels of originations, you know, with SME and business confidence improving in the marketplace and with inflated average asset prices as a consequence of the supply challenge. We do anticipate Anglo's performance will continue to improve in the second half. The glaring absence in the second half will be any benefit from an HMRC tax credit. We won't see that repeat in the second half, but certainly the business performance is likely to be very similar.

Richard Amland
Director of Equity Research, CLSA

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chenny Wang from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, Mike. Maybe just simply following up on your comment around the GRS cost base. You know, you touched on that being right size from Salesforce perspective, but just sort of keen to understand a bit more about the reinvestment profile on digital and maybe some of the other initiatives, and whether those components are already factored into that comment on the cost base being right size.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. The costs for digital enhancements, Chenny, have really flowed through the business. As you know, that's really been on a CapEx expense over the last 18 months or so, and that really helped us transition from a workforce that was in office to a fully remote workforce. Continue to ensure that, you know, the way that we support our people and the way that we connect with our customers has enabled us to continue to do what we do. Those investments are made, and there are some operational expense related to the development of the warehouse, as well as we had a, you know, effectively a salary freeze in FY 2021 as a consequence of the challenges from COVID.

With the current resourcing in the marketplace and, you know, the performance of the business, we've provided a reasonable increase in remuneration across our business in recognition of their efforts, but certainly a modest increase. That's also reflected in the cost base.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. No, that's really helpful. Then, maybe just a bit of color on the decrease in Novated Participation this half. I mean, you know, that held up really well over the course of FY 2021, you know, despite supply constraints. Yeah, you know, can understand maybe for the first half of 2022, those supply constraints got, you know, a bit incrementally harder. Yeah, just sort of interested by some more color on that Novated Participation move this half.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. I mean, there's no client loss in it, Chenny. It really just reflects the fact that the pipeline is significantly higher, and particularly in the last quarter, you know, delivery times were pushed out with customers. You know, it reflects the percentage of the portfolio that would ordinarily come off lease, which has remained relatively constant. Of course, we haven't had new vehicles in order for them to be able to be placed into. You know, with the new business wins that we've had through the end of the first half and those that will transition from the first of April, you know, we're confident that that number will be a positive growth number in the second half.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. No, that's helpful. Then, maybe just one last one from me just on the PSS business. Yeah, I've got to get used to calling that something other than Plan Partners. You guys made that Plan Tracker acquisition. Can you just remind us how much that contributed and also what the M&A pipeline looks like on that front?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

The pipeline is, you know, it's reasonable. I mean, it, you know, we are engaging with other providers in that space and, you know, as I said, where appropriate, we would be interested in growing the business through further acquisitions. You know, as you would expect, you know, when you announce an acquisition, it does raise the interest of others in the marketplace providers. We're also very conscious of what we've built and what Plan Tracker had built and the alignment to our group. You know, we won't just acquire and, you know, it's very important for us that acquisitions are appropriate to the group. Certainly, you know, as I said, there's good conversations that are having with other providers in. It's relatively modest, the Plan Tracker contribution.

I mean, as Ash talked earlier, too, there's some indicative acquisition costs for the group in acquiring Plan Tracker. You know, we think the multiple that was paid on it was very reasonable for a business that's showed strong growth in customers. Certainly, you know, modest in comparison to some other acquisitions in the marketplace. And as I said, you know, that margin improvement that was evident through the due diligence on Plan Tracker is already being seen and is expected in the next 12 months as the integration is completed.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Sorry, just one last one from me. Yeah, to honor the lifts and, you know, operating leverage in PSS, you sort of mentioned, you know, in the first half of 2022, there were one-offs and some that won't be repeated in the second half. I would have thought they would have been stripped out of underlying NPAT, if they were, you know, truly just one-off and not repeatable.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Have been stripped out, as you say. Where there's costs that we think are part of normal operations of the business, whether they're one-off or ongoing, you know, we've chosen to you know, including them in you know, an MPAD adjustment.

Ashley Conn
CFO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. There are more.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Ashley Conn
CFO, McMillan Shakespeare

in that.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, sorry. Sorry, Ashley.

Ashley Conn
CFO, McMillan Shakespeare

No, I'm saying the same. Just to add a few other areas.

Chenny Wang
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Scott Hudson from MST Marquee. Please ask your question.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

Yeah, morning, gentlemen. Just to follow up on the GRS cost base, is there anything one-off associated in relation to the warehouse facility that impacted the cost base through the first half?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

There's certainly development costs that have been expensed that are one-off, Scott. Yes. In addition, there's some one-off costs in regards to the Westpac auto sale and the transition of financier from Westpac to Angle Finance. Those costs have been incurred in the half that won't repeat in the second half.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

The 10%, I guess, cost inflation, I assume the wage increases are a much more modest increase relative to the overall inflation in the cost base?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Yeah. The wage increase is modest. The other component of the resourcing increase is that we're comparing it against the period first half 2021 that we still had people in partial stand down, they're obviously not stood down any longer. The overall FTE reflects having those people full-time in the business this half compared to the first half. There's some incremental increases as a consequence of just not having standdowns any longer. As I mentioned, a modest increase given the price freeze or the salary freeze in FY 2021.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

Are you able to quantify the one-off costs associated with the Angle Finance and the warehouse?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

We don't give them. I mean, they're all sort of small. I'd characterize them as small pieces that start to add up rather than, but we don't quantify them.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

I guess you talk about increased settlements into the second half of the year. You expect the GRS margin to recover back to, I guess, more normal?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Scott, we have obviously very good visibility around the orders and the delivery dates that we have in the second half, which is why we've got confidence in the second half. You know, the biggest variance in the margin in the half just gone is, you know, the additional units that should have landed that got pushed out to the second half. You know, the movement of 5 times- 7 times. If we had seen it remain flat at 5 times, our margin would have gone up.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. In terms of the Plan Partners or PSS business, how quickly do you feel that operational leverage will come through? Do you expect margins to recover to sort of first half 2021 levels, or does the increased sort of corporate cost allocation keep a lid on that margin recovery?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

As I said, we'll see margin recovery in the second half, Scott. You know, I think the second half will give the market a much better appreciation of the business and what we've built and what it will contribute to the group moving forward. You know, the corporate costs that we weren't allocating to the business when it was in start-up, we're not reverting to that position, but we certainly don't expect corporate costs, you know, similar to what we've had in recent times to repeat themselves. You know, it is appropriately charged today, so there shouldn't be any change.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

Okay. Just lastly, in terms of the longer term strategy in relation to the U.K., are you still exiting that aggregation business in due course?

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Look, you know, as we said back in, you know, late 2019, early 2020, the decision was made to, you know, we've had a couple of years of challenging environments and I think, you know, we need to understand the right time to review that decision. You know, there's nothing that we've discussed at a group level that gives us a different view from where we were at the end of 2019. I think, you know, we need to appreciate the businesses need support at the current time, you know, given the market challenges and at the appropriate time we'll revisit it.

Scott Hudson
Analyst, MST Marquee

That's great. Thank you very much.

Operator

There are no further questions from the telephone lines. I would now like to hand the conference back to your presenters for closing remarks. Thank you, and please continue.

Mike Salisbury
Managing Director and CEO, McMillan Shakespeare

Thanks, A. I would like to thank everyone for their time this morning and, you know, for your questions and for your interest in the MMS Group. As I said, the decisions we've taken in recent times and the consolidated performance of the Group, and we look forward to talking with many of you in the coming days. Thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your attendance. You may all disconnect.

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