Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our presentation of our capital management plans and the pro forma financial information we released this morning. I'm Paul Hutton TPG Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our CEO and Managing Director, Iñaki Berroeta, our CFO, John Boniciolli, and our General Manager of Capital Markets, James Hall. To begin, I would like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the country throughout Australia and the lands on which we and our communities live, work, and connect. We pay our respects to their elders, past and present. I will now hand over to Iñaki.
Thanks, Paul, and good morning to everybody listening. I want to begin by acknowledging that today's announcements are the culmination of an enormous effort to deliver a transformational outcome for TPG. We have created a strong, sustainable financial position to support TPG's growth strategy, which reflects the confidence we have in our outlook. It marks the culmination of a series of strategic moves, including brand refreshes, IT modernization, and network expansion that are TPG to compete more effectively than ever. We announced on Thursday that the c had completed, netting us cash proceeds of AUD 4.7 billion. Today, we have announced what we intend to do with those proceeds. We plan to return up to AUD 3 billion in cash to our shareholders through a pro rata capital reduction.
We then plan to offer minority shareholders the ability to reinvest their capital reduction distribution, if they choose to, in TPG shares. This reinvestment plan is designed specifically to support TPG's free-float liquidity and increase minority ownership of the company. In addition, we will repay up to AUD 2.4 billion of bank borrowings. These plans will deliver an investment-grade financial position. We are also updating our dividend policy today. We will keep annual dividends at AUD 0.18 per share this year, the same as 2024, and seek to grow them over time as profit and cash flow grow. Finally, today we have released pro forma historical financial information for 2023 and 2024, and guidance for this financial year. These financials demonstrate the strength of the TPG business. The Vocus transaction delivers a simpler, more focused, and more capital-efficient TPG, with a radically improved financial position.
Our fiber network infrastructure and enterprise government and wholesale fixed business were great assets, but they were subscaled. The deal has also strengthened the economics of TPG's network access. We have established a long-term partnership with Vocus, through which we can grow customer numbers and data volumes across our business. We emerge from this with a streamlined structure and cost base, as Australia's most cost and capital-efficient mobile-led telco. We are using the proceeds from the transaction to reward our shareholders and transform our financial position. I will now explain our capital management plans in more detail. We have designed these plans to reward all shareholders and rebalance the share register to increase minority shareholder ownership. The capital reduction of up to AUD 3 billion is equal for all shareholders and translates to a cash distribution of AUD 1.61 per share.
It is subject to a shareholder vote, requiring a simple majority, and we will hold an EGM for that in October. We have begun engagement with the ATO to seek a class ruling on the tax treatment for shareholders. The reinvestment plan is our way of giving minority shareholders the ability to buy more shares in the company and increase free float. Our strategic shareholders all recognize the importance of increasing minority ownership to drive trading liquidity. Hence, they are supporting this reinvestment plan and not participating in it, even though this will dilute their ownership in TPG. We will undertake the reinvestment plan after the EGM, giving minority shareholders the option to receive their cash distribution, new shares, or a combination of both. Minority shareholders will also be able to subscribe for more shares if they choose.
The targeted debt repayment of AUD 2.4 billion combines the AUD 1.7 billion of Vocus transaction proceeds not being returned to shareholders and proceeds from the reinvestment plan of AUD 688 million. This will result in pro forma financial leverage of 1.3 times, excluding leases, and a solid investment-grade credit position. I want to reiterate our confidence in our plans and our growth trajectory, especially the very healthy outlook for our cash flow. This means we do not need to reduce dividends despite selling part of our business. We are targeting a 2025 dividend of AUD 0.18 per share, the same as 2024, and intend to grow dividends over time. We will consider the timing and extent to which we resume franking dividends in the future once we begin generating franking credits again.
This next slide sets out the details of how the capital reduction and reinvestment plan will work and how proceeds will be allocated between strategic and minority shareholders. The example shown is strictly illustrative only, as of course the pricing terms of the reinvestment plan, including any discount, will not be set until the time of execution in October. Now, turning to debt repayment, our plans will deliver a reduction in bank borrowings from AUD 4.1 billion at the end of June to about AUD 1.7 billion at the end of the year. The chart shows our debt maturity profile before this repayment, following the very successful refinancing of our 2026 maturities in June. We extended AUD 2.1 billion of borrowings to mature in 2027 and 2028, at much tighter margins than previously.
We are grateful to our lenders, who were extremely collaborative in this process and understanding of the dynamics of the refinancing with the Vocus transaction settlement imminent. We will now work with our banking group to assess which facilities to repay and the best way to extend further the tenor and diversity of our borrowings. The reduction in our financial leverage since the merger in 2020 has been dramatic. We exited the merger with external financing of AUD 6.9 billion, including bank borrowing, leases, and a legacy handset receivable financing arrangement, and a leverage of 3 x EBITDA. At the end of 2025, following the debt repayment, we expect to have drawn bank borrowings of approximately AUD 1.7 billion, about 1.3 x pro forma EBITDA.
We have also eliminated the legacy handset receivables financing facility, and we continue to work with our banks on a superior solution, any proceeds from which will be used to repay more bank debt. The final element of the capital management plan is our dividend policy. This reflects the confidence we have in the operational outlook and strategic focus of our business. Simply, we intend to grow dividends over time as both cash flow and profits grow. We will start with a target of AUD 0.18 per share for 2025, the same as 2024, with a target of progressive growth from there. We have a very strong cash flow outlook from underlying earnings momentum, cost control, reducing CapEx, lower borrowing costs, and a pause in spectrum payments for the next few years.
As I noted, we will consider the timing and extent to which we resume franking once we begin generating franking credits again. Before I hand to John, I will cover the timetable for our plans. We will soon start to engage with our lenders to commence repayments of debt so we can maximize financing cost savings over the year. Our next major touchpoint with the market is our half-year results on the 28th of August. After that, we will send out a notice of meeting 28 days ahead of the EGM to approve the capital reductions, which we expect to hold in early October. We will then open the reinvestment plan offer period, allowing minority shareholders to subscribe to new shares if they wish. We expect to make cash distribution related to the capital reduction and issue any new shares under the reinvestment plan in late October.
John will now discuss our pro forma financials, financial year 2025 guidance, and our first half trading.
Thanks, Iñaki, and good morning to everyone on the call. Firstly, a quick overview of the operational perimeter of the Vocus transaction and how this feeds into our definition of pro forma financials. We have divested our EGW fixed commercial operations, our fixed network infrastructure, and the Vision Network wholesale residential access business. Our business is now focused on our mobile radio access network, infrastructure and access rights, our consumer and EGW mobile and consumer fixed business. Using 2024 as the example, the transaction means a reduction of about AUD 616 million of revenue a year.
There would then be a AUD 21 million net reduction in the cost of telecommunication services once you factor in the new commercial agreements with Vocus, being the Transmission and Wholesale Fibre Access Agreement, or TWFAA for short, and the Vision Wholesale Broadband Agreement. We retain the retail business operating on Vision, but not the network itself. Hence, we now have wholesale charges for Vision, whereas before, these were eliminated at the group level. Operating expenditures would be about AUD 224 million lower, which includes a transition of approximately 535 employees. EBITDA on a guidance basis, excluding material one-offs, would be AUD 388 million lower. Cash CapEx would be AUD 122 million lower; however, lease cash outflows would increase by about AUD 45 million, reflecting payments under the TWFAA. Today, we have released pro forma financial information for the 2023 and 2024 financial years and the first half of 2024.
This slide summarizes the annual trend with detailed information for all three periods included in the appendices. EBITDA on a guidance basis would be AUD 1.508 billion in 2023, AUD 413 million lower than the AUD 1.923 billion we reported on a status quo basis. You may note that this is AUD 14 million less impact than we flagged in our preliminary work when we announced the Vocus deal last October, partially because of a slightly larger allocation to lease treatment of the TWFAA. We had originally expected AUD 65 million, being half of the TWFAA payment, to be in EBITDA. However, it is now AUD 58 million. For modeling purposes, the proportional split of the TWFAA between lease and non-lease is expected to be fairly consistent year-on-year.
The impact on assets and liabilities of the new TWFAA leases is shown in the table on the right, resulting in a net increase in lease liabilities of approximately AUD 600 million compared with the December 2024 accounts. EBITDA on a guidance basis would be AUD 1.6 billion for 2024, up 6.1% on 2023. This would be down AUD 388 million on the status quo business in 2024 versus the reduction of AUD 415 million in FY 2023. The EBITDA impact of AUD 27 million less year-on-year in 2024 demonstrates that the business we are retaining has higher growth than the one we are selling. Operating free cash flow has increased AUD 490 million between the two years. This very positive trend includes the benefit to working capital of reduced unwind of legacy handset receivables financing arrangements and lower CapEx following the peak of our network and IT investment in 2023.
These figures help to demonstrate the underlying business is very healthy and continuing to improve. Now turning to our updated guidance. You recall our previous guidance for FY 2025 was for the status quo business, assuming no transaction took place. Following settlement, we are now issuing guidance on a pro forma basis for both EBITDA and CapEx. We expect pro forma EBITDA to be between AUD 1.605 billion and AUD 1.655 billion for the full year FY 2025. The midpoint of this range is approximately 2% higher than the comparable figure for 2024, whereas our prior status quo guidance showed no growth at the midpoint. An important point to note, the pro forma basis is not the same basis as the AASB 5 basis on which we will report statutory financials this year.
While both approaches admit discontinued operations, the statutory basis only recognizes the cost of new commercial agreements from when they begin, which is August 1. The pro forma basis assumes those arrangements are in place all year. I note that on a statutory basis, FY 2025 EBITDA is expected to be approximately AUD 35 million higher than the pro forma basis, as we will only have the new commercial arrangements with Vocus from this month. I also note that any transaction and separation costs this year to date will be in discontinued operations. Guidance is otherwise exclusive of any other material one-off impacts and, as always, is subject to no material change in operating conditions. For CapEx, we are guiding to AUD 790 million on a pro forma basis. This is the previous guidance of AUD 900 million less expenditure related to the sold assets plus some additional projects.
There is approximately AUD 20 million of investment to develop ground station infrastructure to support a low Earth orbit satellite project, supporting our efforts to further improve our coverage for Australians in remote areas. We have also had to invest a little more in IT systems for the EGW mobile business post the separation related to the Vocus transaction. This slide is a reminder of the additional targets we've put out for CapEx and OpEx. Post-transaction, we are a simpler and leaner business with the ability to remove costs. We will implement target initiatives commencing next year once we have recalibrated the base expenditure, aiming to remove AUD 100 million over the next four years. This is a nominal target, meaning it is gross efficiency before the impact of inflation.
With our post-transaction pro forma OpEx base of approximately AUD 1 billion and assuming inflation at the midpoint of the RBA's 2%- 3% target range, that means we are targeting to have operating costs of approximately AUD 1 billion in 2029. We expect CapEx to continue to reduce as we have passed the peak of the 5G upgrade and as we finalize our IT modernization. We are targeting CapEx of AUD 550 million to AUD 650 million from 2027. The outlook for cash flow is very strong this year and beyond. In 2025, this will be driven by lower CapEx, the completion of the unwind of the legacy handset receivables financing facility, a pause in major spectrum payments, and lower borrowing costs from reducing borrowings and lower interest rates.
Turning now to our first half performance, I would like to stress that these figures for the first half of 2025 are an early view based only on management accounts. As such, they are subject to our usual review and sign-off processes for the end of the period and subject to change. We are discussing them today to make it easier for you to prepare for our half-year results later in the month. In February, we gave you a view of our market share in the context of a new regional network infrastructure sharing deal with Optus. I'm pleased to show you some initial success since the launch of that arrangement at the end of January. As we said then, Sydney is our largest market with about 30% market share. In other major cities, we have seen market share growth of around 0.5%.
Our strongest area of share growth has been in the smaller towns and fringe urban areas, places like the Central Coast in New South Wales, Geelong, Hobart, and Cairns. In these areas, we've increased our share on aggregate by about 1%. This is an encouraging result in such a short period. Port-ins from Telstra and Optus are up 48%, and we are starting to see evidence of favorable churn trends. Meanwhile, in regional areas over the last six months, we have seen an 82% increase in data volumes across the network, and voice traffic or phone calls are up 20%, showing that customers really do want what we are now providing. They have been calling for real choice, and we're giving it to them. Looking at key trading metrics for the first half, mobile subscribers increased by about 100,000 to 5.615 million.
We had positive net adds in our core brands and products, Vodafone postpaid and across prepaid, including TPG and Felix. Mobile ARPU was up AUD 0.33 to AUD 34.97. Fixed subscribers were 2.021 million. We continue to see pressure in the NBN space, but the recent promotions around the TPG brand refresh have delivered a better trend in recent months, and fixed wireless continues to grow. We saw an increase in fixed ANPU of AUD 0.84 to AUD 26.11, driven by a modest increase in NBN ANPU, combined with growth in the fixed wireless base. Please note, ANPU is now shown after Vision wholesale costs, which were part of our margin prior to the sale of that business. My final slide compares our expectations for the first half of 2025 with the same period in 2024 on a pro forma basis.
Again, these figures are an early view of the result based on unaudited management accounts. They are subject to our normal review and sign-off processes for the period and therefore may change. We expect total revenue to be up 2%, reflecting the robust trading I just discussed. OpEx is looking broadly flat, despite increased marketing costs across the Vodafone Double the Network campaign and the TPG brand relaunch. We expect first half EBITDA to be up just under 1%, which is a good result considering the market. Also, it results in increased network input costs of AUD 25 to AUD 30 million in the half. Finally, cash flow. There was a circa AUD 40 million increase on the first half of last year.
This reflected lower CapEx and a lower working capital impact from the legacy handset receivables facility unwind, offset by lower net additions to handset receivables and a timing impact from higher lease payments compared with the first half of 2024. We will see further strong improvement in cash flow in the second half, as I have discussed. With that, I'll hand back to Iñaki.
Thank you, John. Our strategic focus is unchanged following the Vocus transaction, which was a key plank of running our networks smarter and becoming faster, simpler, and stronger. Our other two areas of focus remain to invigorate our brands and services and make it easy for our customers. In five years since the merger of VHA and TPG, we have transformed into a more competitive, low-cost telco challenger, committed to simplicity, value, and a better customer experience.
In closing, I want to talk about the long-term value proposition TPG now presents. Firstly, in an uncertain and volatile macroeconomic environment, we are exclusively domestic-focused and operating in a low-risk essential services industry. This competitive market increasingly favors the lean, customer-centric players who can be nimble in responding to customer needs. We are Australia's genuine mobile challenger, the largest player in fixed wireless and the second largest in home internet. We have a strong stable of refresh brands competing on modernized systems and an opportunity to expand into a larger than ever addressable market. Added to that today is our transformed capital structure and balance sheet, a scalable cost position, very strong cash flow outlook, and consistent returns from our simplified dividend policy. TPG is entering an exciting, dynamic era, and we have great confidence in our ability to realize our potential.
Thank you for your time, and I would like to open the call for questions.
If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up your handset to ask your question. Our first question comes from Eric Choi at Barrenjoey. Eric.
Hey, Paul, thanks. Can I ask for you, please? Would you prefer them all at once or one by one?
All at once would be great.
Thanks, Paul. Okay, so first one will be on just the growth profile of the RUMP. Second one, just a question to help me and investors value that RUMP. Thirdly, just on the remaining strategic shareholder overhangs. On the first one, if we look at the RUMP EBITDA, it's going to grow from around AUD 1,600 million to say AUD 1,630 million in FY 2025. In 2025, you've got a AUD 50 million to AUD 60 million mock-in hit in there, and you've got extra marketing costs as well. Should we be looking at the underlying FY 2025 growth rate of say AUD 50 million to AUD 100 million? Is that the best comp that we have for the RUMP going forward? Second question on valuation. I think in the near term, markets are probably going to look at that AUD 0.18 on AUD 4 post-capital return and sort of go, that's a 4.5% dividend yield.
That'll probably drive the share price short term. Longer term, though, I think people are going to look through to FY 2027 and want to do the work on what free cash flow per share and dividend by 2027 looks like. I just wonder, by 2027, you're going to get EBITDA growth, you're going to get AUD 200 million of CapEx reduction, but then I think you're going to exhaust your tax losses, so you're going to have some new tax. I'm just wondering, does free cash flow, you put that all together, a free cash flow lifts to say AUD 600 million to AUD 700 million plus maybe by even FY 2027, and maybe you get like AUD 0.30 per share plus of free cash flow per share. Is that roundabout ballpark wide? Should we be putting that sort of number on a yield going into the long term?
Thirdly, on strategic shareholder overhangs, obviously you didn't do a selective buyback, so we can probably infer the strategics TPG is worth more than AUD 5.50. In terms of how much more, though, can we look at that like the break-even price? What I mean by that is what share price would be needed to clear all of Vodafone and Hutchison's JV debt if they ever sold their full 50%, and maybe AUD 5.30 is that number, which would be the bare minimum. Obviously Vodafone and Hutchison own more than 50%, so they'd need a control premium probably quite a bit above that AUD 5.30. Is that the right way to think about it? Thank you.
Thank you, Eric. I think on the first two questions, the answer is yes and yes. You've done calculations more or less in line with our view. The third one, you know, that's a very highly speculative question, so we cannot really get into that one. Ultimately, shareholders' intentions are up to them.
It's James , Eric. I can just add, depending on how you're defining free cash flow, as you know, we generally talk most about operating free cash flow. In addition, the free cash flow that's actually available for shareholders includes the fact that we've got a few years' break from paying any spectrum payments. That's AUD 128 million year-on-year from 2024 to 2025, which is noted on slide 18 of the presentation. Plus, everything we're doing today means we'll have much lower borrowing costs. You need to factor those two things into your free cash flow yield calculations for this year and indeed future years.
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Thanks, Eric. Our next question comes from Entcho Raykovski at Evans & Partners. Go ahead, Entcho.
Thanks, Paul. Hi everyone. I've got three as well, and I'll give them to you all at once. Firstly, can you give us an indication of the pro forma EBIT performance in the first half of 2025? I know we'll probably get it later in the month, but if you can't give us an exact number, I'm just curious whether you saw growth in pro forma EBIT versus the AUD 158 million that you've got as the pro forma number in 1H24. The second question is just around leverage. I'm just curious if the reinvestment plan is not taken up. At that point, leverage could be as high as 3.2x once you include leases. I suppose, would you be comfortable with that level of gearing? It sort of puts you on the same sort of level as you have been on through the journey since 2020.
It seems like some of that gearing reduction is contingent on the full take-up of the reinvestment plan. Your level of comfort around take-up of the reinvestment plan as well, and whether you feel like you'll need to do things to encourage take-up, including potentially increasing the discount available. My final question is around postpaid subs trajectory. Can you give us an indication of what the postpaid gross adds have done during the periods? Did they accelerate meaningfully to give you the growth in 15,000 subs? I'll be honest, that 15,000 number was a bit lower than my estimates. Did you see any uptick in churn during the period? I'm trying to reconcile specifically that 15,000 postpaid net adds number with the very strong growth in portings, which you've referenced today. I'm struggling a little bit with making that reconciliation. Thank you.
Thank you, Entcho. Maybe what I do is I'm going to start with the last question that you have. Then I'll pass on to John to answer the first one. In terms of the subscriber performance, we are actually quite happy about the way that the year has gone. You need to realize that, you know, we introduced the mock-in to customers in February. That also takes into account the month of January. That probably was a bit softer than usual, also because we were preparing ourselves for what was coming. The other thing that we also need to appreciate in this market is that the boundaries between what is prepaid and postpaid are getting a bit more blurred now. In fact, our fastest growing brand, which is Felix, we classify that as a prepaid. It is a 100% subscription model.
That type of customer, in some occasions, by other players, is classified as a postpaid. All those things we need to take into account. Like I said before, the performance that we have seen in the last six months, consistent with the numbers that we have given on portability, is actually a good performance by our standard, and it remains with a good trajectory. In terms of the leverage, look, I think that we are quite optimistic around the prospects of the reinvestment plan. We're still going to be an investment grade in any case, but we are quite positive on how we're going to end up with all this trump. John?
Yeah, on the first question, I know we gave half on 2025 preliminary numbers as we're yet to complete our year-end process, but I think you should, and I think it's fair to say that the EBIT year-on-year will be flattish.
On the.
That's great. Thank you.
On the leverage again, the purpose of the reinvestment plan is to increase the free-float and increase minority shareholder ownership. We will use the proceeds to reduce debt, but whether we do that or not, as Iñaki said, and presumably you've all seen the ASX announcement that references the S&P rating, you know that is an investment-grade outcome in any case. The other thing I would say is that lease debt is much lower risk than bank debt, and if you look at the information we put out, you know the reduction that we've got is in effect. We've gone from more than AUD 4.7 billion of bank debt a few years ago to AUD 1.7 billion at the end of this year. Even if you don't include the reinvestment plan, that's AUD 2.4 billion, but it's still a very, very large reduction. I refer you to that S&P report.
The target ratio within that is 2.75x , but where we've started the rating journey, so to speak, reflects the very strong cash flow outlook of the business and the comfort that everyone has with that strong cash flow outlook, meaning you could be a little bit at the top end of that in the immediate term.
Okay, thank you.
Thanks, Encho. Our next question is from Liam Robertson at Jarden. Go ahead, Liam.
Thanks, Paul. Morning team. Three questions from me. Firstly on the DRP, then one on the trading update, and then just got a long-term strategic question I might ask as well. Firstly on the DRP from minorities, have you got an early indication on what uptake might look like? How confident are you to getting, you know, closer to that 100%? What are the incentives for minorities to take up the DRP? Is it just the increase to that free-float, or should we be expecting some form of discount? Second question just on the trading update. I might elaborate and put some numbers around the question that Entcho asked. From my perspective, June to June, sorry, portings up 48% on the same period last year.
To your comments, if we assumed Jan was lower, that implies circa high 30% year-on-year step up in portings for the first half 2025. I get about 240,000 gross ads. Therefore, to generate an outcome of 15,000 net ads, to me, that implies churn potentially stepped up about 1%. I'm interested in your comments. John, I think you said previously that you're seeing improving churn. Can you maybe elaborate on that, or maybe help me out with what I'm missing? Last question, just around the business post EGW sale. With TPG now predominantly operating under a long-term infrastructure access model, how do you see a competitive advantage in network quality evolving over the next five to ten years, especially against, say, a Telstra and Optus, who own more of the infrastructure? Are you effectively now all in on the expectation that network will ultimately become more commoditised?
Thanks, Isaac.
Thank you very much. Look, I think that maybe I ask John to answer on the first one. On the second one, I'm going to ask James Gully to get a little bit into the numbers and also the effects of prepaid and seasonality there as well. I'll take the last one at the end. John?
Yeah, look, we remain confident on the principles of the reinvestment plan. We're basically putting a decision in front of minority shareholders to make a call on what they'd like the free-float percentage to be. I think we all understand that it's in the best interest of the company to increase the free-float percentage and liquidity, and then the funds to pay down debt. The final terms of that reinvestment have not been determined yet, and that includes any discount that might be applied. Hopefully that makes sense.
James?
Yeah, look, I think we have seen some improvement. Our churn has not gone up in the first half of the year. We've certainly seen some improvement, particularly in the regions where our network has improved more materially than in the metro areas. I think I have to reconcile the numbers that you've given there, but the port-in number that we've given is only a portion of our inflow. A significant portion of our inflow comes from non-porting customers, things like internationals and even domestic customers that are not porting. I think that might be the explanation for the numbers there. Churn has definitely gone down in the half versus gone up.
Regarding your third question, at the end of the day, I think that what is important for us is to, like I've said a few times, maintain ownership economics on the usage of our infrastructure. We do that on our wireless network because we own it. Now through our agreement with Vocus after the transaction, by utilizing those assets, plus some of the assets that Vocus already has under a structure that we have called the TWFAA, where it is a constant payment per annum, independent of our customer growth and also independent of the growth of the consumption of these customers. The thing that is also important is, in this infrastructure moving ahead and going ahead, who is behind the investments that are going to keep this infrastructure relevant?
We are quite comfortable around the bet that Macquarie has put behind this fixed infrastructure, and we will definitely continue to invest on our wireless infrastructure to maintain this relevant and competitive in the market. From that perspective, I think that, you know, it is some occasions we do think that it is better to own it. On other occasions, we don't think that ownership of the infrastructure is what is going to give you an edge in the market.
Okay, thanks, guys.
Thanks, Liam. Our next question is from Roger Samuel at Jefferies. Go ahead, Roger.
Oh, hi, morning guys. I've got two questions. Firstly, in postpaid mobile, just wondering how the subs inventum has been tracking in July and August, especially after you ended the promotional period for new customers. You raised the prices for the backbook as well in April this year. I suppose the second part of the question is, are you expecting to increase the marketing spend in the second half of the year as well? My second question is, just to confirm that your dividend policy going forward, is that based on free cash flow or is it based on just earnings? Because if I look at your free cash flow, it looks like you only have just enough free cash flow in FY 2025 to pay the AUD 0.18 in dividend, which doesn't leave you much free cash flow for degearing. I'm just wondering what's your policy going forward. Thanks.
Thank you, Roger. Look, I'm going to pass the first one to James Gully so he gives you a little bit of an update of how we're trending in the last couple of months. On August, we'll be only one week, but yeah, I'm going to ask him to go through that. James?
Yeah, thanks, Iñaki. Yeah, we have seen continued year-on-year improvement in our results. July, obviously, we did pull back from some of the promotional activity we'd had for the first half of the year, and we did go launch our new frontbook plans as well. That has seen a slowing versus the first half where we were in heavy promotion, but also on the old price book. There has been a slowing, but it's still growth year-on-year in terms of inflow, and we would expect that to kind of normalise as we kind of move through the adjustment of the new frontbook plans coming in when we head into the back half of the year.
Yeah, on the second question, look, we don't make those types of guidance on our marketing spend. I think that the first year you've seen a good investment on marketing. It has paid back well, and then we play second half as it comes. John, you want to take the one on?
Yeah, look, I've got to be honest, I didn't understand your maths there, and I apologize. I have different maths, so maybe we might follow up with you after the call. I'm sorry, I didn't understand your maths. We'll come back to you after the call.
Yeah, sure.
Thanks, Roger. Our next question is from Kane Hannon at Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Kane.
Morning, guys. Maybe just starting on the regional network deal, and I suppose how you're thinking of the benefits of that have unfolded. I mean, if I think back to when it was first announced, I think there were a lot of discussions around reducing churn in the metro areas rather than necessarily taking customer share in the regions. I suppose looking at that slide, given Sydney's flat, a lot of the growth does seem to be in the regions. Just interested you could talk about that and how you're thinking about the benefits of the Optus deal over time. Secondly, just sort of following Roger's question before, were you saying net adds in the second half are positive on the postpaid or just confused by the messaging there? Sorry. Thirdly, just the portfolio of assets post this sale.
Is there anything left now that you'd consider non-core or could think about monetizing if you needed to or sort of happy with what we have and then deleveraging over time through cash flow? Cheers.
Thank you, Kane. I think on the first question, I think maybe James wants to take that one.
Yeah, that one's on the relative performance and the strategy around mock-in being regional versus metro. In terms of that, if you look at the slide we presented there, we have seen a fairly stable market share in Sydney, and we have seen an improvement in the regional market shares at a greater extent than we have in metro. The starting point there is actually very low market share in those areas as well. As we reduce churn and start to add customers, we do see a bigger move there. The volume of our customer growth is still in the metropolitan areas as we expected.
I think the other thing to note is that these things in the market don't act as a switch. It is the market response as customers get more into the benefits of getting this standard coverage. I think it's a progression. Like I said before, as the management team, we are quite satisfied with the level of reaction that we see from customers. Like James was saying, obviously, the biggest difference is now for the people that are testing on region, which are the people that live there. We also think that in the metro area where we have also seen a good increase since we launched the mock-in, this is something that will continue to progress positively for us. We are quite satisfied with that. In terms of the net, the net is valid for prepaid and for postpaid for both. In both cases, it's positive.
To your last question, we are quite happy with the way that the company looks like in terms of the assets that we have kept and we are investing in and what are core assets and also the arrangements that we have put in place when we are using assets that are either shared or owned by other parties. I would say that nothing that we see in the horizon to sell.
Awesome. Thanks, Alex.
Thanks, Kane. The next question comes from Nick Basile at CLSA. Please go ahead, Nick.
Thanks, Paul. Good morning, team. Just two from me. The first question, just given the feedback you've provided in the trading update, really subscriber growth and the churn, how are you thinking about ARPU or the price gap between yourself and the other mobile operator peers, either near to medium term? Could that close at all, given the quite large gap still that exists? The second one is just on the LEO investment. Can you just expand a little bit on what that project is and sort of what the investment is for? Thanks.
Yeah, thank you, Nick. Look, in terms of the ARPU gap, if you look at our trajectory in the last years, we have probably been the ones that have managed to increase our ARPU more than the others. That gap is where it exists because, you know, in some cases, the gap is opposite. If you look at the ARPUs as they are reported, there is probably not as much as you think in terms of the difference. Yeah, we think that our trajectory has been probably the most consistent over the last years and, you know, delivering a good ARPU trajectory. In terms of the LEO satellite ground infrastructure project, for us, we believe that the LEO satellite is a technology that will be able to deliver quite a lot of value in this market, given the constraints of offering 100% geographical coverage through terrestrial infrastructure.
We are very committed to that. At the same time, you know, we are at a very early stage of where that technology sits. We have agreements with a couple of providers, and we are starting to evaluate some investments. These investments, if you look at the materiality of investment compared to the terrestrial network, they are significantly lower. These are not very material in the context of what a telco expense is, but nevertheless, we wanted also to indicate that during this year, we may be doing some investments on the terrestrial side of the infrastructure that is required to have good options in terms of the LEO satellite providers that we work with.
Thanks very much.
Thanks, Nick. Our next question is from Fraser McLeish at MST Market. Go ahead, Fraser.
Hi, thanks, Paul. Just say first off, you know, congrats on the deal, you know, really good price for the assets you've sold, and importantly, what looks to be a good commercial agreement going forward. So well done on that. Just two quick questions from me. First of all, you haven't really mentioned, I don't think, the AUD 250 million contingent payment that is still receivable. Should we take that to mean that we're probably unlikely to see that? Any comment on that? The other one would be, John, you've given us some good guidance on the OpEx cost base and how that will sort of look over the next three years or so. Just on your other major cost line, the cost of telecom services, with the agreements in place, what's the shape of that going to be?
I know that with the TWFAA, there's no relationship to volumes, but is there an underlying inflator on that agreement and on the mock-in agreement as well? Thanks.
Thank you, Fraser. In terms of the contingent payment, we are positive on that front. It is something that, of course, will come in the future. That's why we cannot assure on insurance, but we are quite satisfied with the level of service that part of the business delivers to our customers. We continue to be a retailer, and we will continue to make sure that we are commercially attractive for customers to be on that infrastructure and ultimately obtain that CVE. The likelihood is, management is committed to do everything it takes to make that happen when it happens.
Yeah, and on the second question, you'll see that we've outlined in the pro forma the cost of telco services, and I think I know some of the change year-on-year on that earlier. Yes, the TWFAA does have an inflation link. In the early years, there is some capping on that, as we've previously discussed. As I would say, and we've said for quite some time now, on the network we've sold, we have used the term network economics, network ownership economics, simply because we're not exposed on the network we've sold to changes in volumes. That's a really important part of the future economics of this arrangement we have with Vocus.
Great, thank you.
Thanks, Fraser. Our next question comes from Brian Han at Morningstar. Go ahead, Brian. Brian, are you on mute at your end? We'll come back to Brian in a second. We've got a follow-up question from Eric Choi, Barrenjoey .
Thanks, Paul. Just two quick follow-ups. Just on the subs again, at FY2024, I think you guys were previously guiding to better sub growth in 2025 than FY2024, i.e., better than 99,000. That net adds would be better in the second half than in the first half. Just clarifying, maybe you no longer expect that second half to skew given you already did 100,000 in the first half. Can I just clarify you're sticking to better than 100,000 for a full year FY 2025? Second question, the S&P gave you guys triple B negative watch. Can I just confirm, within that, are they assuming your dividend stays flat at AUD 0.18? Are they assuming kind of spectrum cost long-term in line with ACMA? Are they assuming that spectrum is debt or equity funded?
Just taking a step back, I'm just trying to figure out, does this triple B negative watch impact your flexibility around dividends or future funding in any way? Thanks.
Yeah, firstly on the subs growth, you will have seen the sequential growth from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025. That's pretty obvious. I think you noted that maybe in your earlier call. Therefore, we would also expect, given our intent here, that the second half of 2025 will be better than the second half of 2024. I think you can see that in the momentum. Regarding how the second half of 2025 compares to the first half of 2025, yet to be seen, but the momentum remains strong.
Eric, on the S&P, no, I mean, again, you'll understand, obviously, we can't speak on behalf of any rating agency. You need to look at that note yourself. You will see the reference there that they'd included the benefit of the reinvestment plan. Given that it is not complete yet, that's the reason that the rating has that outlook on it. They note that within 6 to 12 months, that would be reconsidered subject to completion of that plan. As far as the dividend goes, I think it's a question of materiality. If you had a dividend that was growing modestly, it's not going to make a material difference to our cash flows. I don't think that really has a bearing on the rating outcome. As far as spectrum goes, obviously, we need to be somewhat cautious about what we say about future intentions as it relates to spectrum, etc.
It is our expectation that we can fund our future spectrum requirements with our balance sheet. As you're aware, there are none in the next few years subject to where the ACMA lands on the renewal regime later this decade.
That's good. Thanks, James. Thanks, John.
Thanks, Eric. Our next question comes from Bob Chen at JP Morgan. Go ahead, please, Bob.
Hey, guys. Just a quick follow-up on that subs growth, especially heading into the second half. Can you remind us on what we should expect in terms of potential seasonality from sort of handset releases in the second half that could impact that? Given you've got the marketing in there as well, what have you sort of talked to in terms of how you might change your sort of advertising or marketing sort of plans into the second half to take advantage of the marketing?
Thank you, Bob. Look, we're not going to give any guidance on that. Obviously, the second half of the year is an important trading period, especially because of the launch of the Apple. That's something that we obviously will work on. In terms of our marketing spend or all that, we did already mention on our full year results early in the year that we have increased significantly our marketing spend this year while maintaining a flattish OpEx. We will remain under that envelope of expenditure. Yeah, we are actually positive in terms of the second half given the seasonality of the iPhone launch.
Yeah, great. I mean, I guess given the strong sort of first half trading and response to your initial push on that, does that give you more confidence to potentially spend even more going forward?
Like I said, the confidence that we have is independent of our expenditure plans, which I'm not going to give any guidance on.
All right, great. Thank you.
Thank you, Bob.
Thanks, everyone. There are no further questions at this time. That concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.