Earnings Call: Q4 2018

Mar 11, 2019

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 4th Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the Q4 2018 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro at www.rimacro.com. Also, this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen only mode during the company's presentations. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer Mr. Jorge Scarlini, Chief Financial Officer and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. Sir, you may begin your conference. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's 4Q 'eighteen conference call. Any comments we may make today may include forward looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are applied in our 20 F, which was filed to the SEC and is available at our website. 4Q 'eighteen press release was distributed on Friday and is also available at our website. Back from fiscal year 2018, Banco Macro results are reported under Communication A6114 of the Central Bank of Argentina. Figures for fiscal year 2017 have been restated in accordance with IFRS, and some items have been reclassified in order to make a comparison between periods possible. I will now briefly comment on the bank's 4Q 'eighteen financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 5,200,000,000, 37 percent or ARS 1,400,000,000 higher than in 3Q 'eighteen and 67% higher than the ARS 3,100,000,000 posted a year ago based on an increase in net interest income and an increase in net fee income. The bank's 4Q 'eighteen accumulated return on equity and return on assets of 30.7% and 5.8 percent, respectively, remained healthy and showed the bank's earning potential. On a fiscal year basis, Banco Macro earned ARS 15,800,000,000 in fiscal year 2018 or 55 percent higher than the ARS 10,100,000,000 earned in fiscal year 2017. Net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses for 4Q 'eighteen was ARS 16,200,000,000, increasing 62 percent or ARS 6,200,000,000 year over year. Operating income after general and administrative expenses was ARS 7,600,000,000, 81 percent or ARS 3,400,000,000 higher than a year ago. In fiscal year 2018, operating income totaled ARS 42,500,000,000, 51 percent higher than in fiscal year 2017. In the quarter, net interest income totaled AR12,300,000,000, 19% higher than the ARS 10,000,000,000 registered in 3Q 'eighteen and 66% higher than the result posted 1 year ago. This performance can be traced to a 128% year over year increase in interest income and a 276% year over year increase in interest expenses. In fiscal year 2018, net interest income totaled ARS 39,600,000,000, 64% higher than the ARS 24,100,000,000 registered in fiscal year 2017. Within interest income, interest on loans rose 26 percent or ARS 3,200,000,000 quarter over quarter due to a 7% increase in the average volume of loans and a 4 50 basis points increase in the average lending rate. On a yearly basis, interest on loans were 87 percent or €7,200,000,000 higher. In 4Q 'eighteen, interest on loans represented 65 percent of total interest income. During fiscal year 2018, interest on loans totaled ARS 47,500,000,000, increasing 68% compared to fiscal year 2017. Net income from government and private securities increased 77 percent or ARS 3,500,000,000 quarter over quarter due to higher Leliqs volume and higher interest rates. Compared to 4Q 'seventeen, net income from government and private securities increased 2 94 percent or ARS 6,000,000,000. In fiscal year 2018, net income from government and private securities totaled ARS17.7 billion, 2 0 8 percent higher than the results posted in fiscal year 2017. In 4Q 'eighteen, differences in quoted prices of gold and foreign currency totaled a ARS729,000,000 gain as a consequence of the 8% Argentine peso appreciation against the U. S. Dollar and the bank's short FX position during most of the quarter. In 4Q 'eighteen, interest expenses totaled ARS 11,500,000,000, a 78% or ARS 5,000,000,000 increase compared to 3 quarter 'eighteen and 2.80 percent or ARS8.5 billion higher on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits increased 87 percent or ARS 5,000,000,000 quarter over quarter, mainly driven by a 19% increase in the average volume of time deposits and a 6 40 basis points increase in the average time deposit interest rates. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 301 percent or ARS 8,000,000,000. In 4Q 'eighteen, interest on deposits represented 92% of the bank's financial expenses. In fiscal year 2018, interest on deposits totaled ARS23.2 billion and were 150% higher than in fiscal year 2017. As of Q4 of 'eighteen, the bank's accumulated net interest margin, including FX, was 14.9%, higher than the 14% posted in 3Q 'eighteen and the 12.7% registered in 4Q 'seventeen. In 4Q 'eighteen, net fee income totaled ARS 3,100,000,000. On a yearly basis, net fee income increased 38% or ARS864 1,000,000. During fiscal year 2018, net fee income totaled ARS11,100,000,000, 31% higher than in fiscal year 2017, with fees charged on checking and payment accounts standing now. In the quarter, other operating income increased 54 percent or ARS 633,000,000. Other income stands out with a ARS 5 48,000,000 decrease compared to 3rd quarter 'eighteen, given that there was no buyback of corporate bonds during 4Q 'eighteen. On a yearly basis, other operating income increased 69% or ARS 218,000,000. In 4Q 'eighteen, Banco Macro's personnel and administrative expenses totaled ARS5.2 billion and increased 16% quarter over quarter. Employee benefits increased 15% quarter over quarter as a result of salary increases agreed with the unions. Compared to 4Q 'seventeen, general, administrative and personnel expenses in 4Q 'eighteen were 46% higher. As of December 2018, the accumulated efficiency ratio reached 37.9%, improving from the 39.1% posted in 3Q 'eighteen and the 40.2% posted in 4Q 'seventeen. This was a result of a 16% increase in expenses and a 27% increase in net interest income. Net fee income and other operating income as a whole. Banco Macro continues to be the most efficient bank in Argentina. In fiscal year 2018, the accumulated efficiency ratio was 37.9%, significantly better than the 40% posted in fiscal year 2017. This was as a result of a 38% increase in expenses and a 45% increase in income. In fiscal year 2018, Banco Macro's effective income tax rate was 30.6% compared to 32.7% in fiscal year 2017. The statutory tax rate was cut in the late tax reform bill and as of January 2018 stands at 30% and is further reduced in January 2020 to 25%. In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector grew 2% quarter on quarter, 36% year on year. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of December 2018 reached 7.9%. On the funding side, total deposits grew 12% quarter on quarter and 65% year on year. Private sector deposits grew 14% quarter on quarter and 67% compared to 4Q 'seventeen, while private sector deposits decreased 4% quarter on quarter. As of December 2018, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 43% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private deposits as of December 2018 totaled 7%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's nonperformance to total financial ratio reached 1.91%. The coverage ratio reached 117.74 percent. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS45.7 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of ARS 26.5 billion and a Tier 1 ratio of 19.7 percent. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remains more than appropriate. Liquid assets total deposit ratio reached 57.1%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality continues under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards. We have one of the cleanest balance sheets in Argentina's banking sector, and we keep our well atomized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have. And our first question today comes from Nicolas Riva with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question. Yes. Thanks very much, Jorge and Nico for taking my questions. Just two quick questions. First on coverage of NPLs, we saw it continue to decrease now to 118% as of December. I believe that you guys had said that the idea was to drop this to use some of the excess coverage earlier last year. But now how do you feel with this coverage now it's slightly above 100%? And if you have a target for coverage for NPLs? And then second question on asset quality. We saw the continued increase in the NPL ratio, now to 1.9%. And given what's going on in the economy in Argentina, what's your outlook for the NPL ratio for the end of this year? Thanks. Nicolas, this is Jorge Carinthi. On your first question, yes, you're right. We have been commenting this in previous calls, The idea that we built up the 180% coverage was in good times in order to use that excess in bad times. So we have been using that excess in the last three quarters. As always, we want to be above 100%. I would say that little by little, we are going to build up this ratio by the end of the year ranging between 120%, 140%. We do not have a specific while we imagine that the Argentine economy was down more than 2% in real terms in 2018, We were forecasting this recession by April, May. That's why we, at that time, decided to stop lending aggressively and focus on asset quality control. The $1,900,000 I think is totally manageable for us. Going forward, we think that the coming the Q1 and Q2 of 2019 are going to show similar levels, and maybe we are going to see some marginal improvement by the end of the year. So I would say that we should be in the area of 1.5%, 1.7% by the end of the year. Of course, depending on the economic reaction that we are forecasting to see in the 3rd Q4. Okay. So Jorge, a follow-up on this. So basically, you're saying that we already reached probably the peak in NPL ratios. We should be more or less stable in the first half of this year. Yes. I would say that the Q1, maybe January to mid February, that could be also seen as the lowest part of economic cycle. Honestly, I don't know the exact number that we are going to post in the Q1, but it's going to be similar than the one that we posted in the Q4 of last year. And our next question comes from Gabriel da Nobrega with Citi. Please go ahead with your question. Hi, everyone, and thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. During this quarter, I actually noticed that your results from financial instruments or government securities actually decreased quarter over quarter, which is quite peculiar as you have a high exposure to these high yielding assets. So what I actually want to understand from you is if you are not booking the results from this in your net classifying results from securities in your NII and then the separate lines that you have in your P and L? Thank you. And I'll make the second question afterwards. Gabriel, I mean, in the Q4, first of all, the bank took the decision that we were going to post the income coming from securities in the interest income line or in the interest income segment. Other banks decided to put that below the net interest income. That is a decision of any bank. So Buenco Marco tried to put this on the interest income line. We had a very good result in terms of interest income coming from securities, basically on the impact on that we had on Yealix that in the 4th quarter, we decided to take advantage of the increasing the interest rates of the Leliq that reached 75% at some point and then started to go down by increasing at the same time the level of time deposits. So the spread was extremely positive for the bank. And well, the numbers are showing very good performance in that level. So that's the answer for your question. All right. And if you may allow me just to follow-up here. As we see decreased liquidity sorry, as we see interest rates actually decreasing, what do you expect to do with this excess liquidity that you have? Do you expect to continue on investing into the leaks? I mean, as it's happened in the past, well, if you're on the Pampano market, we have the highest liquidity ratios in the system. And of course, the idea is to always invest in short term instruments with attractive interest rates. At some point, we're delivered, now we're the Leliqs. So the idea that we will continue investing excess liquidity at the Leliqs. So going forward, I would forecast attractive income coming from the securities in the interest income line coming from the Elite investments, yes. All right. That's very clear. Could you also maybe share with us what are your expectations for loan growth? Are there maybe any segments that you want to grow more? And I'm here maybe I'm trying to actually understand if you actually want to gain share during this year? Or do you prefer to be a bit more cautious? Thank you. Well, Gabriel, we have to track very carefully the economy. As I mentioned before, we are seeing the 1st and second quarter with some sluggish economy numbers, some reaction in the 3rd and 4th quarter. But at the end, 2019 is going to be a negative real growth in GDP. So it's not going to be a good year for going very aggressively on lending. We are forecasting that loan growth is estimating for this year, so that is in the area of 30%, 32%. So we are not going to be aggressively lending this year. Again, we want to keep a close eye, as always, to the bottom line. We do not care about market share on these years of economic recession. So maybe next year, depending on economic conditions, we could be a bit more aggressive in lending. All right. That's very clear, Jorge. Thank you. You are welcome, And our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning, Jorge and Nicolas. A couple of questions from my side. My first question is if you can provide any guidance for this year on net interest income growth and OpEx growth? And any color on your expectations for the bottom line growth? Also, if you can provide your macro assumptions behind your expectations will be much appreciated. And then my second question is on M and A activity. We have seen in the past your interest to pursue an acquisition, such as Banco de Patagonia, given your high capital levels. So given that the Argentine banks industry is one of the most fragmented in the region and considering the current valuations, don't you think is the best time to pursue an acquisition? Or do you prefer to wait after the elections? Thank you. Ernesto, how are you? In terms of guidance, if you take that we're expecting loan growth between 30%, 32%, Also, margins, I would say, that are going to be stable to slightly increasing in this year compared to what we saw in 2018. Expenses growing similar to inflation. You get what you get on your model. I'm not going to give exact guidance on every single line of the income statement. So these are the basic numbers that we are working for or working with, sorry. So we're expecting an attractive and nominal growth in bottom line according to the numbers I gave you. In terms of your second question on M and A, first of all, I mean, I agree with you that we have an excess capital, and we have been always been waiting for the opportunity to buy another bank. But first of all, you need an official deal on the table. But for the moment, there's no official deal on the table. Of course, we are always keeping a close eye on any single opportunity that would appear, but for the moment, there's nothing there. I would say that a person that is interested or looking forward to sell might wait a little bit after election or might wait to see maybe prices going up a little more than the current prices. So we are going to make the best use of excess capital, and we are going to go for the opportunity when it's there and at a price that we consider that is the best for Banco Macro. Perfect. And any color and what could be the impact to your profitability once you have the implementation of hyperinflation accounting? No. As we stated there, we have not finished with the calculations and the auditors working there. So as soon as we get the period, we are going to announce that. But for the moment, there's no final number there. Okay. Thank you very much. You're welcome, Ernesto. And our next question comes from Carlos Gomez with HSB. Please go ahead with your question. Hello, good morning. I would like to know if you are planning to reopen the repurchase program that you have been executing last year? Thank you. Hi, Carlos. How are you? Not for the moment, but of course, we I mean, the Board is going to track the stock price. And depending on the level they are and the decision of the Board, we could be reopening there. But for the moment, it's not under the ordinary scale. And there are no further questions at this time. This concludes the question and answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Mr. Nicholas Torres for final considerations. Thanks everyone for your interest in Banco Macro. Have a good day. Bye bye. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your line.