Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (BCBA:GGAL)
Argentina flag Argentina · Delayed Price · Currency is ARS
6,445.00
-195.00 (-2.94%)
Sep 23, 2026, 4:59 PM BRT
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 25, 2020

Operator

Welcome to the Grupo Financiero Galicia third quarter 2020 earnings release conference call. This call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead, sir.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a short introduction, and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Federal Securities Laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses monthly economic activity estimator, or EMAE in Spanish, the Argentine economy recorded a 6.9% year-over-year contraction in September, and an 11.9% contraction during the first nine months of this year compared to the same period of 2019. During the third quarter, the primary fiscal balance amounted to ARS 412 billion deficit, 1.5% of GDP, and as of the end of September, the accumulated fiscal deficit rose to 4.8% of GDP.

The increase in public spending was a consequence of the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package, mainly consisting of direct transfer to the unemployed, social plan beneficiaries, and informal sector workers, as well as of aid to companies in the form of labor tax reductions and partial payment of salaries. Lower fiscal revenues were caused by the economic contraction due to the social isolation and distancing measures. During the third quarter of the year, the consumer price index recorded a 7.5% increase, accumulating a 22.3% increase during the first nine months, and a 36.6% from September 2019. On the monetary front, the monetary base went up by ARS 229.2 billion between June and September, entailing a 10.6% quarterly increase.

The issuance of ARS was mainly explained by the central bank's transfer to the treasury, which were used to finance the fiscal deficit, and by interest accrued from the Leliq and repos that were issued in order to sterilize the aforementioned monetary expansion. The official exchange rate averaged ARS 75.2 per dollar in September, an 8.1% increase against the average for June 2020, and a 33.1% hike from September 2019.

The average interest rate on ARS-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days was 30.45% for September, 0.93 percentage points above the average recorded last June. Private sector deposits in ARS amounted to ARS 4.6 trillion in September, increasing 6.9% during the quarter, and 89.3% when compared to September 2019. Transactional deposits in ARS fell 2.7% against June, but increased 95.5% in the year, while ARS-denominated time deposits increased 20.3% in the quarter and 87.5% year-over-year.

As of the end of September, peso-denominated loans to the private sector amounted to ARS 2.48 trillion, recording a 9.6% increase during the third quarter, a 50.1% increase when compared to September last year. Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia, net income for the third quarter amounted to ARS 5.5 billion, up 99% from the year-ago quarter. This profit was mainly due to gains from Banco Galicia for ARS 4.5 billion, Galicia Administradora de Fondos for ARS 344 million, Tarjetas Regionales for ARS 295 million, and Sudamericana Holding for ARS 273 million. The annualized return on average assets was 2.3%, and the return on average shareholders' equity, 14%.

Going to Banco Galicia, net income for the quarter increased 59% from the year-ago quarter due to a 10% growth of net interest income, a 19% increase of fee income, and a 19% decrease of loan loss provisions, offset by a 17% decrease of net income from financial instruments. Although interest income increased 18%, net interest income recorded an ARS 896 million growth as interest expenses were down 27%. Average interest earning assets increased ARS 22 billion or 4% year-over-year, mainly due to the growth of peso-denominated loans and peso-denominated government securities, offset by the decrease of the same items denominated in USD.

In the same period, its yield decreased 660 basis points, primarily due to lower yields on both dollar and peso-denominated government securities and on other interest-earning assets in pesos. Interest-bearing liabilities increased ARS 2.5 billion from the third quarter of last year, primarily due to a 26% increase in the average balance of peso-denominated time deposits, offset by a 45% decrease in dollar-denominated saving accounts, and its costs decreased 504 basis points, mainly as a result of a lower interest rate on our interest-bearing liabilities in pesos and on peso-denominated time deposits. Net fee income increased 19% in the last 12 months, being the net fees related to credit card activity, the ones that stood out primarily because of lower expenses related to Quiero!, our loyalty program.

Net income from financial instruments decreased 17% due to lower yields on the Leliq and of results from derivative financial instruments, offset by higher profits from government securities. Gains from gold and foreign currency quotation differences were relatively stable from the year-ago quarter, reaching ARS 2.3 billion, including an ARS 1.8 billion profit from foreign currency trading. Provision for loan losses were 19% lower than the same quarter of the prior year, while both personnel and administrative expenses decreased 1% as compared to a year before. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 445 billion at the end of the quarter, down 2% in the last 12 months, mainly due to a 62% lower balance of dollar-denominated loans that was partially offset by a 37% increase of loans in pesos.

Net exposure to the public sector increased 50% year-over-year, and excluding Leliqs, it represented 7% of total assets, compared to 4% at the end of the third quarter of 2019. Deposits reached ARS 616 billion, up 18% in a year, as peso-denominated deposits increased 52%, while USD deposits fell 40%. The bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 12.7%, 132 basis points higher than at the end of the year-ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 10.1%, same level that the one recorded in the same quarter of 2019. As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.2%, recording 152 basis points improvement as compared with the 3.7% of the third quarter of the prior year.

The coverage with allowances reached 301.5%, up from 133% coverage from a year ago. As of the end of September 2020, the bank's consolidated computable capital exceeded by ARS 91 billion, or 182%, the ARS 50 billion minimum capital requirement, and the total regulatory capital ratio reached 23.1%, increasing by 673 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2019. In summary, in a very challenging and volatile macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia has shown good results and was able to keep liquidity, solvency, and profitability metrics at good levels. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

Operator

We'll go ahead and take our first question from Jason Mollin with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Jason Mollin
Analyst, Scotiabank

Good morning. Thank you. Good morning, Pablo. My question is related to what you provided in your press release on regulatory changes and the credit line that was introduced, the productive credit line for SMEs. I don't need to read them all, maybe you can talk about the suspension of fees, the suspension of dividends, the extension of credit card maturities, controls on foreign exchange, et cetera. Then now this new credit line that was announced. Can you talk to us a little bit about what does Galicia see as the most important impact? Which changes will have the most impact on the bank going forward in the next 12 months? What are the things that we should be looking at, and are they very material to the operating income and operations of the bank? Thanks.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Okay. You made a good summary of all the regulations that came out concerning fees, dividend, waivers on NPLs, and so on. Minimum interest rate on time deposits. This productive line came recently. All banks will have to have disbursed on average 7.5% of the peso deposits. The rates are much higher than the ones that we were granting beginning in March. At that moment, the interest rates were around 24% for SMEs, 15% for independent professionals, and monotributista, as they are called. These rates are 30 and 35. They are a little bit higher. It will be automated. Going back to the more general question, not just the productive line. The central bank has been, I would say, using the banks as a tool to help the rest of the economy to improve its situation.

Basically trying to help SMEs, independent professionals, in order to keep economic activity as high as possible. Definitely, we would prefer no regulation in this sense, but we are, I would say, trying to accommodate, and each time there is a new regulation, we take decisions in order to get back to the previous situation.

I would say that, going forward, the main risk keeps being a regulatory risk, and within regulatory, I would also add fiscal risk in the sense that some provinces are trying to increase taxes on certain banking transactions. Yesterday or the day before yesterday, the city of Buenos Aires announced that for next year they are planning to raise certain taxes on banks, basically. Mainly because the national government reduced the transfer of national taxes to the city of Buenos Aires. This was a kind of political reaction.

We are in the middle of a kind of political negotiation. We will have to see if it is finally approved. Definitely regulatory risk and this type of fiscal or tax risk are the main concerns. I don't know if I was clear with that.

Jason Mollin
Analyst, Scotiabank

No, that's very helpful. On the fiscal side that you just mentioned, are they considering a potential transaction tax, or is it some kind of revenue tax or income tax being proposed?

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

They announced two things. It's a project. Again, it's not approved. One is to charge with a stamp tax of 1.2%, the credit card statements that, of course, will be paid by the credit card holders, but indirectly could cause that the consumption with credit cards will diminish in a way, people would prefer to pay cash, certain transactions. The more direct impact would be in the project of applying a sales tax, impuesto a los ingresos brutos, it's called in Spanish, of 7% on the interest that banks receive on Leliq and on repo. Already the central bank said that this project would affect the rates of monetary instruments. In my opinion, it will be an issue that will be discussed and negotiated. These are the two initiatives that the city of Buenos Aires announced for next year.

Jason Mollin
Analyst, Scotiabank

Thank you very much, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst, Bank of America

Hi, good morning, Pablo. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on NIMs and net interest income. We noticed an important sequential decline in net interest income, and I think it was explained by lower interest on public sector securities, lower interest on overdraft loans, and we also saw higher funding costs, and I don't know if it was mainly explained because of the minimum floor on interest rates. What should be the trend we should be looking for NIMs during the last quarter and next year?

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Yes. Thank you for the question. Yes, we saw a sequential contraction in NIMs, higher than expected three months ago. During the quarter with the, I would say, introduction of this minimum interest rate on time deposits, of course, we were expecting that contraction. That was, I would say, the main reason, because in the second quarter, the cost of funding, mainly the time deposits interest rate, was abnormally low. Now it's, in a way, higher than perhaps what the market would be willing to receive. The main reason for the contraction in NIM was this minimum interest rate on time deposit. On the other hand, in the second and third quarter, we saw the impact of lower interest rates on these loans we granted to SMEs and independent professionals at 24% and 15%, respectively.

Going forward, interest rates on our loans should be a little bit higher because of this 30%-35% interest rates on the productive line. Also, the central bank changed the trend, and it began increasing the interest rates on the Leliqs and on repo transactions. Also, another source of or variable that affects NIM is the breakdown between pesos and dollars. As you saw, the weight on dollars is coming down and as deposits in dollars and loans in dollars are decreasing and the peso bracket is growing. Going forward, we think there will be a stable to a slight contraction in margin. We are not seeing any, or I would say, such a compression as we saw in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst, Bank of America

No, this is very helpful. Thank you very much, Pablo. Just a second question. In terms of asset quality-

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Yes

Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst, Bank of America

in terms of NPLs, once you end the relief programs, when do you expect to have a peak of NPLs, and what should be the level of that NPL ratio?

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Well, it's, I would say, the key question that we all discuss internally. Definitely, NPL has been very resilient, not only because of this waiver from the central bank. If we look at the numbers at the third quarter, the total NPLs to total financing, this includes unused amounts of overdraft and credit card limits. It was 2.2%. If we do not take into account this waiver, this 2.2% would have been around 2.9%. Still, I would say, very healthy NPL ratio. Going forward, we could expect some, I would say, again, slight deterioration. Why? Because interest rates of these loans granted were low, and not only low but also negative in real terms. It's easy for companies and individuals to pay this debt.

As I mentioned, I think, in the previous conference call, with higher inflation, perhaps the impact on the P&L will be seen in the adjustment by inflation more than in the deterioration of the asset quality. I don't know if that was clear enough.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst, Bank of America

Yes. Very clear. Thank you very much, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Gabriel Nóbrega with Citi.

Gabriel Nóbrega
Analyst, Citi

Hi, Pablo. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I also have a question on asset quality. Just seeing that you did not create additional provisions this quarter, also being that you're saying that the NPL ratio is behaving better than expected, do you think that the second quarter was the only quarter where you had to create additional provisions? Do you believe that as the waivers drop in December of this year, you will maybe have to reassess all of the asset quality and maybe have to increase additional provisions during 2021? I'll ask a second question afterwards. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Hi, Gabriel. For the second quarter, saw a peak in provisioning and mainly related to off-balance sheet commitment. For the fourth quarter, we are thinking in provisioning similar to the third quarter, to this current quarter that we are discussing today. The coverage really is very high, again, not only considering the regulatory one with this waiver on NPLs, but also if we consider the previous NPL metric, the coverage is above 220%. We are, I would say, really comfortable with the level of coverage we created.

Gabriel Nóbrega
Analyst, Citi

Okay. That's very clear. As for my second question, when we look at the specific NPL ratio for Tarjetas. It decreased a lot in the quarter. I have here more than 300 basis points. I was just wondering if there is a specific thing here, or maybe the portfolio is performing better than expected.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Nothing, I would say, extraordinary. The collection was better than expected, or as the economic activity began to rebound, collection improved. We didn't sell bad loans, or there was no specific action. In the quarter, the three months, July, August, and September, saw a sequential growth. Yesterday, it was published, the September economic activity number, and the economy grew 1.9% from August, and the previous numbers were 1.7% and 1.1%, I think. The three months were positive, and that was translated to collection. Also, many times in the case of the Naranja clients, they are more in the interior of Argentina, and they typically benefit or see the benefits from the agricultural sector that is doing very well. Again, nothing extraordinary.

Gabriel Nóbrega
Analyst, Citi

All right. Thank you so much.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Alejandra at Itaú, or Alejandra Aranda with the Itaú.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

Hi. Good morning, Pablo. I wanted to know the percentage of loans that have been reprogrammed, if you could tell us, and discriminate that between credit cards and the rest of your portfolio. Also the percentage of loans that you have with subsidized rate. That would be my first question.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Okay. Hi, Alejandra. The loans with a subsidized rate as of September represented 10.5% of our total loans. The main ones are the ones granted to SMEs at 24%. In terms of the loans that were deferred or the installments that were deferred or reprogrammed, as you said, the number decreased significantly, and it's around 4% of total loans. Most of them, credit cards. If I had to say a percentage, 70% credit cards, 30% personal loans in the area. Not a very accurate figure. In total, you have between the two, around 14.5% of total loans.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

14? One four.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

14. Considering the subsidized rates, the 10.5.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

Oh, okay. I see. Sorry. Perfect.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

This is 14%.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

The second question that I have is that in terms of fees, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, we saw a 9% increase in real terms when fees have been frozen. If you could explain that a little bit? At a bank level, they actually declined 2% quarter- on- quarter. I was wondering what happened there, and what can we expect on fourth quarter on 2021?

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Okay. Well, when you look at the different subsidiaries, the fee, for example, in this case, the fee behavior or the fee growth or decrease, and you add these subsidiaries in order to get to the full unconsolidated Grupo Financiero Galicia number, many times, you don't get the desired result, mainly because there are many intercompany transactions, and these are eliminated. Typically, the bank pays fees to Galicia Seguros or to Fima, our asset manager, or Naranja pays the bank for different services.

This type of consolidated variation is due to, in many cases, and particularly in this quarter, due to eliminations, due to these intercompany transactions. Having said that, if we look at the current regulation, the central bank allowed for price increases for basic products, beginning in next year, 9% in January and 9% in February. This is again for the basic products.

We could be increasing prices of fees for other products like safe deposit boxes, for example, or certain bundles of products. The expectation, in terms of prices, is to have some increase and also to increase cross-selling and volume. The target for next year is to have fees growing around five percentage points above inflation.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

Okay. Thank you very much.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome, Alejandra.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, Pablo. Good morning. I have a quick question regarding taxes. Can you provide us some guideline here how to think about the effective tax rate for the bank? This quarter was pretty high, so I know inflation matters a lot here, but if you can provide some kind of color for us, I guess that will be helpful. I have a second question regarding NII and margins.

I understood from Alejandra's question that only 4% of your loans are in deferral. That seems to be a very low and good number. I just want to check if this includes the three-month grace periods from the automatic renegotiations of cards in September, like the central bank regulation. If that's the case, if the number of deferrals are so low, are you accruing interest on those loans? I mean, you're not receiving installments. You should only receive next year. How are you treating those loans that have those grace periods and should be paid in several, like nine installments, just in 2021? Are we seeing that in NII now, or are you not accruing interest on those loans? Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Well, thank you for the questions, Yuri. Regarding the income tax rate, the statutory one is 30%, and beginning last year, the calculations are using or adjusting by inflation. This quarter, the effective tax rate looks higher mainly because the difference between the accounting and the tax accounting is a treatment of a provisioning. We cannot use all the provisions that we show in the P&L as an expense, as a deductible item. In order to do that, for tax purposes, you need to begin collection procedures. There is the main difference. In going forward, of course, it's hard to project. It will depend on this difference between how high provisioning will be. Again, the rate is 30%.

Going to your questions on NII and margin and our reprogrammed loans, 4% are the two total loans is the amount of credit cards that were refinanced in 12 monthly installments at 43% in April and at 40% in September. In September, the amount that was refinanced was much lower than in April, and we are accruing interest on these loans, of course.

The other loans that are affecting, I would say, a net interest income are the ones that we granted at 24% to SMEs and at 15% interest rate to these independent professionals. They are being collected with no problem, and actually, if we look at the amount of outstanding loans at 24%, let me make a quick calculation. We are at around 60% of the maximum amount dispersed. We already collected 40% of the maximum amount that we granted under the 24% interest rate line. That's why we think with the new interest rates on this productive line, margins could be resilient or even a little bit higher.

Yuri Fernandes
Analyst, JPMorgan

Exactly. I understood previously, flat to slightly lower. It's flat to slightly higher from here.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

In the margin, there are many variables affecting, one points up, other points down. In the case of this decrease in the outstanding amounts of 15% and 24% lines, and are in a way replaced by 30% and 35% interest rate lines, it helps in the margin. Of course, if minimum interest rates persist or if there are new or additional regulations, that play against the margin. That's why we think they could be stable or with a slight compression considering all the variables.

Yuri Fernandes
Analyst, JPMorgan

No, perfect. Super clear, Pablo. Thank you very much.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Thank you. I'm sorry for the misunderstanding.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Rodrigo Nistor with AR Partners.

Rodrigo Nistor
Analyst, AR Partners

Hi, good morning. Good morning, Pablo. Thank you for taking my question. I would like to have more color on the hedging policy against inflation and peso depreciation. Particularly, are you increasing exposure to the newly issued sovereign dollar-linked bonds and also the inflation-linked ones? From now on, what you would expect in terms of a strategy to mitigate the risk of a spike in inflation and further depreciation of the peso. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Thank you, Rodrigo. Well, to hedge against inflation and also for the devaluation, of course, we have our real estate, but it's a portion of our equity, and we try to be a hedge in dollars, not only in I would say, of course, we have regulatory limits that are 4% - 5% of our regulatory capital. The policy is to be hedged, and we do that through a forward contract. The Assets and Liability Management Committee permanently analyzes the convenience or not to purchase dollar-linked instruments or inflation-linked instruments. CER instruments are, in some cases, too long, and the other alternative are the UVA loans, but from, I would say, a regulatory view are a little bit risky.

Of course, we are not able, all the banks, not just Galicia, we are not able to adjust fully the UVA on the personal loans and mortgage loans we granted two years ago. There are instruments, and we permanently try to cover against both inflation and devaluation.

Rodrigo Nistor
Analyst, AR Partners

Okay. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome, Rodrigo.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Nicolas Riva with Bank of America.

Nicolas Riva
Analyst, Bank of America

Thanks very much, Pablo, for taking my question. I have only one question, and it's about the deposits in dollars in the banking system. We have seen a significant amount of outflows, really since August of last year, since the primary elections. More than 50% of the deposits in dollars from the entire banking system, not just Galicia, have exited the system. I wanted to ask you if internally, you guys discuss or if you are concerned about potential restrictions in terms of withdrawing deposits in dollars, like a corralito, specifically of dollar deposits, similar to what Argentina had back in 2001, 2002. Thanks.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Hi, Nicolas. As you said, the outflow of dollar-denominated deposits began after the primaries of last year. At the beginning, in the worse days of August and September last year, there were very important amounts. It flattened, and even they grew in December. This year, we were seeing a leakage, very small withdrawals every day. In September, when the central bank put restrictions to, or new or additional restrictions in the FX market, people got more nervous, and we saw a rebound in dollar-denominated withdrawals. After the situation normalized in the sense that banks were able to sell again dollars, the mood changed dramatically, and today we are seeing, even in some days, some growth of dollar-denominated deposits.

Having said this, the level of deposits in dollars, in the case of Galicia, is close to $1.7 billion, and the coverage with liquid instruments, mainly cash dollar bills, is about 93%. We are not worried about liquidity at all. I would say that nobody feels that there are, I would say, the conditions to put any, how would you say, regulation as you mentioned, the corralito. We think that all the banks are in a very good situation in terms of liquidity in dollars and also in pesos, but the issue you are asking is dollars. As you mentioned, since the primary deposits in dollars in the system decreased more than 60%, and we saw no problem at all. Why?

Basically, regulation was very good in terms that dollar-denominated deposits could be lent just to exporters, and the origination in dollars basically disappeared one year ago. Banks are seated on hills of dollar bills. No, we don't see any risk of this type of an extreme regulation.

Nicolas Riva
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thank you very much, Pablo.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome, Nicolas.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

Hello. Good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. Two questions. First, could you tell us what you expect for inflation for this year and for next year? If you expect an increase in inflation, how do you intend to handle it? What is the strategy that you will follow? Second, could you give more detail about the transaction regarding Tarjetas Regionales and the additional 17%, which is now going to be owned by the bank? Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Perfect. Well, regarding inflation for this year, we are forecasting that it will end up at 37%. This 37% includes, on average, around 4% of monthly inflation for November and December. There are the last two months that we need to wait to have all the monthly input. For next year, we are forecasting higher inflation, around 47%. This is a moving target. Because there are certain signals that take us to believe that the government, the minister of economy, the central bank, are willing to reduce subsidies in order to have a lower fiscal deficit, and they will allow some tariff increase, prices increases in utilities, the tariffs increases, and also some programs of frozen prices were or are about to finish. The monetary expansion will create some pressure on prices going forward. Let's say from 37%-47%.

We will be able to be more accurate on expecting inflation as demands of next year goes by. The way banks make money in an inflationary environment and also in a non-inflationary environment is with the margin. It's likely that if inflation goes up, interest rates will go up, and margins will go up. We could have some coverage, as I explained in a previous answer, with a dollar-linked instrument or inflation-linked instrument. Basically, the best way to have a good profitability is to have a good financial margin as a whole. Tarjetas Regionales, Carlos. The idea of the transaction was that Grupo Financiero Galicia ends up with having 100% of all its subsidiaries. The only minority shareholders in the different subsidiaries were or still are at Tarjetas Regionales. These are two families that were the founders of Tarjeta Naranja.

Banco Galicia purchased the control of Tarjeta Naranja back in 1995. Now we are completing a process, basically, giving or exchanging shares of Grupo Financiero Galicia by their shares in Tarjetas Regionales. At the end of the process, Grupo Financiero Galicia will have 100% of Tarjeta Naranja, Tarjetas Regionales. The former minority shareholders of Naranja will have 3.25% of the shares of Grupo Financiero Galicia. These shares will be issued likely at the beginning of next year, once all the regulatory approvals are obtained. The last legal step that was in our hands was an extraordinary shareholders meeting that took place one week ago. Now we have to wait for some state-owned offices to approve this transaction.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

Can you repeat it? How many shares will be issued? This is a capital increase for Grupo Financiero Galicia.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

This is a capital increase. Grupo will have a bigger portion of Naranja and Regionales. In a sense, it will be kind of a neutral. The number of shares issued will be, I don't have it right now in front of me, but with the new issuance of shares, the shareholders of Córdoba, province of Córdoba, will have 3.25% of the shares of Grupo Financiero Galicia.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

It is 3.25% of new shares, right, that will be issued as a bit more of outstanding shares that will be issued.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Of the total new capital.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

Of the total new capital.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Let me just check. Yeah. That will mean, here I found a number. The shareholders from the province of Córdoba will receive 47.9 million shares of Grupo Financiero Galicia.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

47.9. You said this will be at the beginning of next year.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Yes. Of course, the timing is not fully under our control. That is our estimate.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

Okay. Just one question. This will be ordinary shares, not the super majority, the shares with extraordinary votes that EBA Holding has.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Yes. B shares with one vote. Yeah.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Analyst, HSBC

All right. Thank you very much.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome, Carlos.

Operator

We'll take our final question from Alejandra Aranda with Itaú.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

Hi, Pablo. Sorry, one more question. In terms of what you're expecting now for growth of loan and deposits for 2021, could you update us?

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Yes. Always when we speak about volumes of loans and deposits, we have as a benchmark inflation. We say inflation plus X%. For next year, in deposits will be, or should be growing in line with inflation at around, let's say, this 47%-50% that I mentioned, and loans, around 10 percentage points above inflation. Of course, we are speaking just about peso deposits and loans. In terms of dollars, they are losing weight and it's likely that the trend will continue and perhaps in a year we will get to 10%-15% of dollar deposits and dollar loans, and the 85%-90% of pesos.

Alejandra Aranda
Analyst, Itaú

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

You're welcome.

Operator

There are no more questions in the queue.

Pablo Firvida
Investor Relations Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia

Okay. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning, and happy Thanksgiving for the ones in the U.S. Bye-bye.