Good evening, this is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Banco BPM Full Year 2025 Group Results Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Riscassi, IR Manager of Banco BPM. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon and welcome to Banco BPM Full Year Results Conference Call. Our CEO, Giuseppe Castagna, and our Joint General Manager, Edoardo Ginevra, will take through the presentation. Let me remind you, please limit yourself to two questions. Now I hand over to Mr. Castagna. Thank you.
Thank you, Arne. Good evening to everybody. For once, we are the only ones in the evening, so we'll take our time, but I will try to be as quick as possible in order to give you the possibility to make an interesting Q&A session. So first slide on page six, I would start. This is just a recap of the completion we are more and more having on our new business model, which, as you know, started a couple of years ago with the intention to build a business model driven by the product factory and able to hedge the contribution of commission and fees vis-à-vis NII revenues. I would say that this model is becoming more and more attractive. We are completing, basically, the different product factory steps. We will go through each one later on.
Let me say that with this business model, we were able to support a very strong profitability, which with this split 50/50 interest income and commission is, of course, more sustainable for the next quarter and years. The results of 2025 were EUR 2.08 billion, EUR 130 million higher than the guidance I gave you in the last quarter. Also, with the strong increase in terms of common equity Tier 1, performed at 13.76% versus, as you may remember, a plan minimum threshold of 13%. These results allow us to match the dividend per share of EUR 1, which we gave last year, so the balanced dividend would be EUR 0.54, 17% higher than the first interim dividend, EUR 0.46. The payout ratio is still 80%, considering for this year that net income, excluding revaluation of pre-existing Anima stake of EUR 200 million.
Let me remember that last year we accounted for the 80% payout ratio, also the extraordinary contribution coming from the Numia transaction. Shareholder remuneration 2024/25 reached EUR 3 billion, which is exactly half the strategic plan cumulative target, which is already achieved after a couple of years. Some further numbers which give you the sense of where we stand in terms of where we wanted to reach with our presentation of business plan in February last year. As I mentioned before, we are already at non-NII revenues on total revenues 51%, cost income ratio 46%, gross NPE ratio 2.2%, and cost of risk 40 basis points. On page seven, the proforma net profit is higher because, of course, we are not considering in the stated accounting the Q1 in which we did not consolidate Anima.
So if we have a proforma with consolidation of Anima, the net profit would have been EUR 2,120 million. If we compare, as I mentioned before, the 2024/25 net profit, we have an increase of 20% excluding in 2024 Numia transaction and solidarity one-off, solidarity funds one-off, and the EUR 1,880 million, which reached this year excluding Anima one-off, is a 20% increase in net income, which, of course, accounts for almost 20.5% of ROTE and 15.5% of ROE. The organic improvement was so high to offset completely in the Euribor reduction of this year. We started from a profit from continuing operation pre-tax of EUR 2.5 billion in 2024.
We have a total reduction in NII at full funding cost of EUR 200 million, a further reduction in NFR of EUR 56 million, which were completely compensated by organic improvement coming from non-NII core, specifically commission and insurance, and a reduction of operating cost and provision. Like for like, so we have a plus EUR 2,550 million to which we add EUR 263 million related to the integration of Anima starting from Q2. If we include also the Q1 of Anima, our profit from continuing operation would stand at EUR 2.9 billion. Let's have a look to the composition of the profit and loss. We have growing revenues in terms of total revenues from EUR 5.7 billion to almost EUR 6 billion. As I mentioned before, non-NII revenues on total revenues is 49% for proforma, but 51% considering NII at full funding cost.
Net fees and commission raised 21% to EUR 2.5 billion starting from EUR 2.055 million of last year. The same strong increase of almost 60% comes from income from associates with growth from EUR 200 million to EUR 330 million. Q4 was the first positive quarter of the last year in terms of core revenues, which grew almost 5% thanks, of course, mainly to fees, but also to a higher contribution Q4 and Q3 of NII. The same favorable trend we are experiencing cost control. Like for like, we have a reduction in cost of 1.7%, which, of course, pro forma takes into account also the impact of Anima. Significant decline also in provision where we reduced the total provision of 26% with LLPs going down from 46 basis points of cost of risk to 40 basis points. Just a quick deep dive on risk profile.
As you may remember, this was the main difference that we had when we started the merger. We had an NPE ratio of 22.5% vis-à-vis an average of the Italian bank at 15% and an average of the EU bank at 5%. As you can see, in the last three years, we have reduced massively this amount, and now we are at 2.2%, which is exactly in line with the Italian banks and slightly above the 1.8% of the European average. Let me also remember that we were basically one of the few banks who didn't make recourse to the market to offset the NPE. In the same period, in the same nine-year period, we assumed that there were at least more than EUR 25 billion of share issue in order to offset the NPE from other banks. Also, the stock is at a low record.
We have now at EUR 2.250 million of GBV, decreased by EUR 600 million, which is a 21% reduction, and net NPE went down 0.37 point to 1.2%. Basically, we have zero bad loan if you exclude bad loans covered with state guarantees. We, in the same time, have also the higher NPE coverage because we increased it from 52.5% to almost 56% the total coverage, excluding, again, the state guarantee. Also, the vintage of our NPE portfolio has been reduced to less than two years. The default rate was 0.84%, and we have managed also to reduce of EUR 1.1 billion the stage two loans, which now stands at 8% of total performing loans. Capital generation: we were able to generate 194 basis points after absorbing more than 260 basis points related to EUR 1.5 billion of dividend distributed.
We have a sort of road of the common equity Tier 1 during 2025, which, you may remember, has been massively eaten by the Anima acquisition, not getting Danish Compromise. This accounted for 240 basis points on our capital, to which we had 60 basis points of regular re-add-ins totaling more than 300 basis points. So, with a starting point rebased in 2024 at 12%, to this, we had the capability to generate 176 basis points, which brought the total to 13.76%, to which we had to deduct the one-off levy on extra profit reserve, which accounted for 18 basis points, bringing the stated common equity Tier 1 to 13.58%. We managed, in January, to have some hedging on some minority stakeholdings, which gave us 18 basis points of contribution to common equity.
So, we can say that nowadays we have 13.76% of Common Equity Tier 1 after, again, absorbing Anima acquisition, regular re-add-ins, the dividend payout, and the levy on extra profit reserve. This is very important in our opinion because if in such a year we were able to offset all these headwinds and generate such a consistent amount of capital as we did basically from nine years, every year offsetting the losses that we had in reduction of NPE, you can understand that capital generation for the future will not be a problem. We are very confident to return very soon at a 14% level. Let's go into some detailed figures. On page 12, we have the spreadsheet of Q4 and Q3 and full year 2025 and full year 2024.
As I mentioned before, Q- on- Q, we have the first time of positive results of net interest income 1.3% higher than Q3, net fees and commission 7.5% higher than Q3. Of course, it's a bit more difficult to make a comparison year-over-year because we have the contribution of Anima nine months this year. But anyway, we have a 21% of net fees, higher net fees and commission to EUR 2.5 billion. Another quite remarkable contribution is coming from income from insurance where, year-over-year, we passed from EUR 116 million to EUR 163 million. Core revenues went up 5% Q- on- Q and 2.5% year-over-year, considering more than EUR 300 million reduction in NII year-over-year. Net financial results were EUR 48 million positive due specifically thanks to the cost of certificates, which went down to EUR 167 million compared with EUR 284 million last year.
Total revenues went up to almost EUR 6 billion compared to EUR 5.7 billion last year, and Q-on-Q were up 1.1%. As I mentioned before, we have a slightly increase in operating costs, but this is driven by the Anima impact, which was not present in 2024. If we compare like for like, we are down in cost 1.7%. Total provision down from EUR 547 million to EUR 403 million. Quarter-on-quarter, we have instead an increase, which is a seasonal increase of total provision to EUR 160 million from EUR 81 million.
Profit from continuing operation pre-tax profit were EUR 2.8 billion year-on 2025 compared to EUR 2.5 billion on 2024, so a 12.5% growth. Net profit from continuing operation is 17.4% growth with, again, a considerable growth also in net income, more than the figure that is shown on page 12 of EUR 2.8 billion compared to EUR 1.9 billion. Maybe it's more effective to compare the two years without the one-off I mentioned before.
Again, it's EUR 1,880 million against EUR 1,570 million, a growth of 20% year-on-year. On the right side of the slide, you can see how we managed, we were able to manage, and we will go through afterwards the NII. Of course, there was a massive reduction in NII, but if we consider the NII at full funding cost, so with the contribution of the lower cost of certificates, we managed to keep the reduction 2025 on 2023 at only 2.2% with a EUR 200 million reduction from 2024 to 2025. And you can see how the impact of commission basically is now higher than the impact on NII in 2025, growing to almost EUR 3 billion from EUR 2.3 billion of 2023. So, you can see the non-NII revenues growing from 43% to more than 50%.
Cost income down to 46% from 48%. Again, I mentioned already both the LLPs and net profit from continuing operation, which grew 38%, which is quite massive if you consider the reduction of NII. Again, net interest income, specifically a reduction of 9% year-on-year, which is +1.3% on quarter. At full funding cost, the reduction was only 6.2%, and the results of the last quarter were justified by the increase of 3 basis points in Euribor, which we were able to take in our commercial spread up to 2 basis points, so almost all the entire Euribor increase. Specifically, we grew 2 basis points in the liability spread, maintaining at 1.7% the asset spread. The managerial action sensitivity basically reached the top as it was already in Q3.
We are not hedging anymore, both in terms of replicating portfolio due to the consistency of Euribor during the last months, as well as also the index at current accounts were stable at 37% vis-à-vis 34% of last year. Also, there was a reduction also in the sensitivity rate at EUR 150 million. Finally, on the last bottom right part of the slide, you can see how a strong help in NII came also from the reduction of the wholesale issuance. In last year, basically, we reduced from the beginning of 2024 to the last issuance, we were able to reduce the average of the wholesale bond spreads of 60 basis points, which accounts for almost EUR 35 million per year. So, that means that we have a lower cost of risk for our or lower cost for our issuing going on towards the end of the plan.
You can see how for each kind of issue, there was a reduction based from the last issues related to the previous one. A good signal, finally, in Q4 also from loan volumes. Of course, there was all the year a strong generation of new lending up to EUR 28 billion, EUR 7 billion higher than last year, showing our our constant presence close to the client makes us take advantage also from also in a period in which there is not loan growth. We were able, of course, to foster a lot of new loans, taking an important share of commission coming from new lending. Specifically, new lending to households grew 40% year-on-year, and to non-financial corporates grew 30% year-on-year. Also, in terms of low-carbon new long-term financing, we were up to EUR 7.6 billion compared to EUR 5.7 billion of last year.
As well as far as the stock is related, the Q4 was EUR 1.2 billion up Q3, growing basically in all the different asset classes, non-financial corporates, households, and financials. Meanwhile, when you compare with December 2024, we were able to have a positive increase both in households and non-financial corporates. Meanwhile, as you may remember, we have only one institutional big-ticket transaction amounting from EUR 1.5 billion, which impacted the reduction of EUR 1.3 billion related to the institutional lending. On the right side, some quality description: 73% of our core customer loans are located in the north of Italy. We still continue to take a lot of advantage from the collateral of our loans. 52% are secured, 27% with state guarantee.
And if you go to SMEs, 63% are with collateral, and more than 90% of the risk are concentrated in the best class from mid- to low-risk. Net fees and commission are the game-changer of this year thanks not only to the Anima contribution but also to a growth of 5% normalized for the Ecob onus reduction commission 2025 on 2024. As you can see, we have, too, we passed from EUR 2.055 million of 2024 to EUR 2.5 billion of 2025. And this, again, makes clear the share of investment product fees passing from 36%-49% of the total commission. You can have some detail on the right side of the slide.
In the upper part, there is an investment product-fee growth of 11% year-over-year like for like, so without Anima contribution, which, of course, became EUR 1.2 billion if you consider also the contribution of Anima, which brings to more than 50% the contribution of the asset management and wealth management fees. Also, in terms of loan of investment products placement, we grew 12% in line with the growth of the commission. On the other commission, we were able to contain the reduction at 1.9%, which, if we exclude the Ecobonus impact on 2024, became a growth of 1.2%, specifically from having good results and increasing results, especially from P&C insurance, consumer credit, corporate investment banking commission, and structural finance commission. Meanwhile, some reduction in, as I mentioned before, in Ecobonus and instant payments and in the payment system and captivity.
Let's make a quick focus on the insurance business. As you know, it has been one of the core pillars of our strategic plan. In the last two years, we have done a lot of work integrating 100% the life business and creating the new joint venture with Agricole in P&C. This year, we added both the IT migration of life and non-life, one run directly by us and the other one run by our partner over at Agricole. So, of course, as always in this case, you always experience some reduction in sales. Basically, it was not so much the case because if you see the contribution of the insurance business, this grew year-on-year 26% from EUR 255 million to EUR 320 million with a pace which is much quicker than the pace that we need to reach the target in 2027.
Basically, in the last year, we had the same increase that we expect for the next two years. If we go through the different kinds of insurance, life insurance grew 27%, commission went up to EUR 70 million from EUR 67 million, but what was really affecting these results was the income from the insurance business, keeping, of course, now all the income coming from this kind of business, which grew from EUR 116 million of last year to EUR 163 million of 2025, which is almost in line with the EUR 175 million which we have as a target in 2027. Let me remember that in 2023, this business contributed only for EUR 46 million to our profit and loss. As well as far as P&C is related, we have the same growth, up to 23%, coming from EUR 71 million to EUR 88 million.
Again, definitely, we are not yet at the final speed we assume we can take in 2026 and 2027. A quick focus also on Anima and all the total customer financial assets, which, in terms of captive volumes, grew more than EUR 13 billion, EUR 13.7 billion in 2025 and more than EUR 25 billion in the last two years. So, a really remarkable growth. As you can see, last year, we had a big impact also from net inflows. Asset under management grew EUR 2.3 billion, asset under custody EUR 3.5 billion, and current account and deposit grew almost EUR 5 billion.
We can see the same, almost the same pace as if we consider the total customer financial assets held by our group, which now amount to almost EUR 400 billion, is EUR 396 billion starting from EUR 377 billion last year on a pro forma basis, of course, because we did not consolidate Anima last year, with a growth of almost EUR 20 billion year-on-year. A final page on Anima, of course, the most important piece of news is that we appointed, in the end of January, the new CEO, Mr. Peris sinotto, and, of course, also the growth of Anima is quite considerable considering also the difficulties of last year managing from one side our acquisition, the CEO, the former CEO, leaving, in the last quarter and managing, the integration of the new business into the group.
Anima managed to grow 4%, EUR 8 billion year-on-year, and growing 5% in terms of revenues and 16% in terms of net income. So, we are very happy with the contribution Anima is doing for us, and we, of course, expect this figure bettering with the new management of the company. Let's go to the cost income down 46% thanks to a rigorous cost discipline that is now, I would say, quite a mark for our bank. Like-for-like, we have the reduction of 1.7%, EUR 46 million, which, of course, including Anima, is higher, up to EUR 2.7 billion. If we consider staff cost, we have a reduction of 1.5% like-for-like. With Anima, we have a stated EUR 1.8 billion.
If we integrate also in the Q1 Anima, the figure would have been EUR 1.825 billion, but we assume that we are completely in target with the business plan, which, may I remember, is EUR 100.78 billion because thanks to the retirement scheme we fostered last year, we have already generated more than 1,000 exits and another 600 will be during the last two years. This will generate EUR 60 million of reduction of cost of personnel only offset by EUR 20 million of increase of national contract and new hiring that we are doing. Also, in other administrative expenses, we have a quite strong reduction, 4.7% in terms of ASA, which instead we register a slight increase in depreciation and amortization due to the increasing amount of investment we are doing in IT and AI.
Let me remember that the headcount that with Anima, where pro forma more than 20,000 people, beginning in 2025, now are down to below 19,000 people. We are 18,970 people, and a further reduction of 300 people is forecasted by the end of the plan. We already mentioned cost of risk, very good news, in all aspects, total down EUR 600 million to EUR 2.25 billion, net bad loan down to 0.36%, which became 0.1% excluding state-guaranteed loans.
The cost of risk is down to 40 basis points, but this 40 basis points includes five basis points related to front-loading future future derisking for another EUR 300 million, which we forecast to materialize during this year. Default rate at a low rate of 0.84%, increasing cure rate and, of course, decreasing net default rate. Also, the coverage has a record level for us. Without the state guarantee, we had almost 56% in NPEs and 77% of bad loans. I'll give the floor to Edoardo Ginevra for the financial and capital side.
Thank you very much, Giuseppe. I'll try to be very quick in the interest of time, good evening everyone, of course. In this page 21, we see the evolution of the contribution of the financial components to our P&L and our capital reserves performed very well during the year. They had a negative contribution on a net basis above EUR 500 million, now are below EUR 300 million with a further improvement during the month of January. Bond portfolio is slightly below EUR 47 billion.
Decrease in the quarter was due to some maturities, but you may remember that we described the evolution of this portfolio as re-investing, during the rest of the year, also for some maturities that we had at the in the final part of the year. Composition is similar to Q3 with 68% at amortized cost. Out of these EUR 6.6 billion, 38 billion are Govies, of which Italy accounts for 38%. Most of Italian bonds, as usual, as in the previous quarters, are in the area of, in the category of amortized cost. Net financial result was negative last year for EUR 82 million, now is positive for EUR 48 million. Most important drivers of these results is of this evolution are the reduction in cost of certificates from negative contribution to EUR 184 million to negative EUR 167 million.
The other components accounted for EUR 215 million, out of which almost EUR 100 million are represented by Monte dei Paschi dividends, which, by the way, left us some room for prudent valuations of loan booked at fair value during Q4 2022. Cash is almost at EUR 54 billion, with a positive evolution of total direct funding that now is above EUR 137 billion thanks to EUR 5 billion almost of increase in direct funding in current account and deposits. Sorry, indicators of liquidity and funding are on a very solid level with LCR in particular that is at 147%, which is quite the level that on a 12-month basis the average we have continuously registered. NSFR is constant at 126%, MREL buffer is at almost 7.7 percentage points. The evolution of our funding has been very successful, as far as our access to the markets is concerned.
Thanks also to positive influence of improvement in credit ratings, from Fitch, from Moody's, and DBRS, we have been upgraded, whilst the S&P during the year assigned to the bank a positive outlook. Moody's and DBRS, for the first time, showed for the deposits category also the A class of our rating. We were successful in issuing EUR 2.65 billion of wholesale bonds, of which EUR 175 billion, using GSS bonds framework or EU GB factsheet. We were the first Italian bank issuing green bond using the EU label for EUR 500 million during the year.
Secondary market spreads that were described on an average basis, in the first part of this presentation in the AI slide here, are analyzed in terms of the evolution between or the difference between the average spread of the strategic plan, which is the blue bar, and the issuance spread that, for that category, we have reported we have achieved in 2025. So, for example, senior preferred, we have in the plan 140 basis points of spread, we issued this year 95 basis points of spread, and secondary market, which may, of course, be slightly different type of indicator but is interesting as a benchmark, as at the end of last year was at 63 basis points. Similarly, also for the other categories, you see that we are well ahead of where we expected to be when we drafted the plan in February last year.
Page on capital, here we focus on the evolution of this Q4 where we started at EUR 13.52. We have to book to account for the levy on extra profit reserves, which dragged the capital for 18 basis points. The real rebase starting point is EUR 13.34. We are at a pro forma level of EUR 13.76. This is thanks to the contribution of P&L, which after dividend contributes 9 basis points, 72 minus 63, to the contribution of DTAs and Fair Value of the Comprehensive Income reserves.
RWA of operational risks is a one-off of 19 basis points due to the need to take account of Anima in our yearly full year P&L replacing previous full year P&L, which was less rich in terms of revenues, and final other components account for basis points. So, organic capital creation in this quarter has been 24 basis points on a pro forma basis taking into account hedging transactions that we have executed in January. We are at, we add on top 18 basis points coming to the level I mentioned, 13.76. MDA buffer allows us room for additional business expansions, investment opportunities, capital deployment, which is as high as 408 basis points or on a pro forma basis 425.
We, let me remind that the minimum threshold in the plan was 350. Finally, we continue to have material level of capital that will be created from additional sources on top of P&L. In particular DTA and Fair Value of the Comprehensive Income reserves will contribute to capital creation during the remaining part of the plan horizon in the next two years for an expected level of 150 basis points, of about 150 basis points. And now I'll leave the floor again to Giuseppe.
Okay, just for the conclusion, thank you. So page 26, we are very satisfied and proud also of the new bank with a very strong and diversified business model we were able to build in the last years, starting from a very normal commercial bank driven by NII. Now, as you can see, we are able to deliver almost 50% through commission, meanwhile growing also in terms of net profit. So it's just not a substitution of income and profitability, but it's a growing profitability coming from a sustainable remuneration of commission.
Basically, we have the growth we experienced in the last year, which is already the double of the growth we will need to have in the next two years to reach the target 2027. But more important again, we are already at the 50% that we expect in terms of non-NII contribution. Let me say that 35% of our net profit comes from wealth management, asset management, and protection, which was only 24% last year and below 20% in the previous year.
All these allow us to be very confident in the trajectory towards the EUR 2,150 million of the net income target, with a very consistent ROTE and ROI that we almost already reached and the capability to continue to distribute a dividend of EUR 1 also this year, which, as you can see, had the progression from EUR 0.23 to EUR 0.56 two years ago. EUR 1 last year, but as you may remember, this EUR 1 was coming from out of EUR 400 million coming from the new money transaction. This year, the EUR 1.5 billion comes all from repeatable and sustainable profitability, capability of generating profitability.
All in all, we have, with this distribution, we will reach the EUR 3 billion, which is half of what we promised to the market, which is, EUR 6 billion, but we are already have our expectation because the first two years were considered lower in terms of profitability vis-à-vis the next two years. If we consider the average price of the stock in 2025, the dividend yield is 9%. Let's have a look, recap on 2025, profitability at record level with overdelivery of EUR 130 million, more diversified and sustainable business model producing 50% of non-NII revenues, record of asset quality, reduction of NPE to 1.2%, and a good increase in the common equity Tier 1 ratio, notwithstanding a very difficult year in terms of headwind.
to just not remember that the year was, in a way, more difficult for many reasons, but notwithstanding that, we are already ahead of the figure we gave, with our business plan in February vis-à-vis the target 26, both, in terms of total revenues, in terms of operating costs, in terms of cost to risk, and this, of course, allows us to say that the pre-tax targets are confirmed with some room for overperformance. Of course, we know that for the next two years there will be, next three years there will be, some external challenge. We have a budget law which increased the tax rate in the plan horizon. We have also some incremental due to specific systemic charges.
Notwithstanding that, we think that through managerial action, the advantage accrued in 2025, the capital generation that we are able to produce, we will in any case be able to deliver EUR 1 dividend per share also in 2026 and, in doing so, remaining ahead of the EUR 6 billion target distribution that we have for 2027. This is my final page, so please I would go for Q&A section.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use the headset when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. First question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank.
Good afternoon to everybody. I have two questions. The first one is on the NII. We have seen an acceleration of the household segment in terms of loan growth in the Q4, but most of the growth was driven quarter-on-quarter by the financial institutions. So I expect that the trend of the NII in the coming quarters could be supported more by the household, the growth in the household volumes going forward. Whether this, so I was wondering whether this, my understanding, is correct because on the other side, I've seen that you have reduced by around EUR 2 billion your replicating portfolio in the Q4 when compared with the Q3. And if I remember it correctly, you tend to replicate much less than the other peers. So I was wondering what shall we expect going forward in terms of NII when compared with the Q4.
The second question relates to the governance and specifically to the evolution of the governance legal framework in the coming weeks. We've seen some coverage in the press. You are planning to introduce the changes in the articles of association. So what are the steps that we shall expect from here in terms of governance legal framework? So if you have the opportunity to clarify this to us. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Let's start from NII. We think that the pace of new loans we were able to produce last year is, and also the increase in Q-on-Q, is a good signal for forecasting a slow increase also in terms of portfolio of stock of loans. Beginning of the year is not that bad. Of course, every year you have to stand and replace what is expiring at the end of the year, but we are already at a quite good pace. We are confident that this year could be the first year of recovery also in terms of loans. But don't forget that last year we grew EUR 5 billion in terms of deposit.
This is, I think, a very strong assumption. I don't know if we can repeat at the same pace, but in any case, the margin coming from deposit is exactly the same, the margin coming from loans. So this is another very good way to increase NII without taking further risks. Of course, we will stand close to our client taking all the advantage also for increasing loans, but it's not the only way to better NII.
I leave to Edoardo the replicating portfolio, but maybe I can go through your question about governance. As you have seen from the published documents, we plan to amend our bylaws to comply with Legge Capitali and provide for an increased minority representation to our shareholders in line with the spirit of the law. As you know, we have a new EGM on 23 February , to which will be followed by the submission of the slates for the renewal of the board. If we will go for the list of the board, we have to submit 40 days before the ordinary shareholder meetings of 16 April. So this will be within 7 March. If the list will be presented by the shareholders, the presentation will be allowed up to 25 days before such extraordinary meetings, so within 22 March.
In terms, of course, of requirements, I think that there are the usual requirements which are requested by ECB. So, of course, fit and proper requirements, independence requirements, rules, equilibrium on gender, and specifically, of course, we have some bylaws which imply that, of course, in terms of competitors, we cannot have in our board members of competitors.
Thank you. On the replicating portfolio, you are right. We have reduced the level versus what we had in September, but this was, I think, completely planned. In September, we basically entered into new transactions to anticipate the majority of some swaps that was due to happen by the end of the year. So we came back to the level that we planned to have in our strategic plan, which is exactly EUR 25 billion.
Next year, we will start the year with this EUR 25 billion, and the contribution to NII of the replicating portfolio is expected to be supportive, to represent a tailwind for the overall NII given the evolution of especially the floating rate, the leg that is paying leg for us. So also, the replicating portfolio, on top of the commercial part, the evolution of the commercial part, will allow us to reap some benefits. Another point worth mentioning is that despite the observation you made on replicating portfolio, still our sensitivity, overall NII sensitivity, is reduced, especially compared to June, given that on that period it was EUR 50 million higher.
Like for like, of course, so considering the contribution to NII or the contribution including certificates.
Thank you.
Next question is from Sofie Peterzéns , Goldman Sachs. .
Yeah, hi Here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs, and thanks a lot for taking my question. So my first question would be on the investment products on slide 15. We can see that the upfront fees were very strong at EUR 343 million. Should we expect this to remain the run rate going forward, or do you see kind of scope for increasing both the upfront fees and also the running fees on the investment products? And then my second question is on the systemic charges that you mentioned on slide 26, sorry, 27, that you expect kind of incremental systemic charges. Could you just walk us through what these charges are and how we should think about these new challenges? Thank you.
Thank you, Sofie . On investment products, yes, it's been a very strong pace, but we come from years of increasing this kind of product. And, of course, having now Anima into our group, it would be even easier to have the opportunity to give, to offer our client the best product, having the possibility to offer without any advantage for us, but only in the interest of the client, both insurance product, asset under management, funds, SICAV, certificates, and whatever. So we think this is something that we can continue. Asset under management, notwithstanding the growth of the last years, we are still with a share which is a bit below the average of our competitors. So we feel that we can have the opportunity to have a common policy together with Anima and grow in this respect.
I have to add that next year we will be, this year, of course, 2026 will be more attentive to the product which will generate a run rate rather than upfront. This year, we were a bit in the middle of our bank insurance business proposition, and we had also the need to serve our client with products which were not, we were more in the interest of our client in terms of yield, reducing our commission in the run rate. Starting from this year, we are not anymore in this situation. We will have only one company which will do together with Anima the new product, and this will make it much easier to have products which will have more run rate embedded. I leave Edoardo for the systemic charges.
Okay. So on systemic charge, of course, there is this specific case which is very well known in the Italian market, Banca Progetto, which will require Italian banks to contribute through the Interbank Fund. Our share is around EUR 20 million per year in the next five years. On top, there is a small amount that we contribute to the insurance fund, which is additional EUR 5 million, EUR 6 million. I'm talking about gross before ta x.
That's very clear. Thank you.
Next question is from Antonio Reale, Bank of America.
Hi, good evening. It's Antonio from Bank of America. Two questions for me, please. The first one is on your outlook for revenues in 2026. Your slide 27 shows your business plan targets, which, I mean, increasingly look very conservative now in the context of the strong numbers you've managed to deliver in 2025 and also in the context of your remarks in the presentation. So as things stand, your 2026 revenue number basically implies no growth year-on-year. I'd like to understand or get a more up-to-date target on what you think this number could look like and possibly understand the moving parts on the sort of key revenue line items.
The second question is really a follow-up on the previous question on governance because I'm trying to square up. I think yesterday, Crédit Agricole said that they would like to have a fair representation on the board. And, I mean, it's no surprise given the shareholder register. Based on what you said earlier, though, of not having members of a competitor on the board, do you think this is going to require an additional approval from ECB or other authorities in Italy? I'm just trying to understand how this comment squares up, if I understand correctly. Thank you.
Okay. Yes, every time we announce some plan, it looks like not to be conservative. Then when we reach, of course, a further step, it looks conservative. Let's say that we are very happy with where we stand right now. Of course, you know which were the figures for 2026. On top of that, we have some headwinds that I mentioned before. We are committed to make good results also for 2026, trying to offset this EUR 100 million of lower net profit coming from the new taxation and the contribution that Edoardo was specifying.
So I don't think it's something if you start from EUR 1,880 million, which is the net profit of this year, not considering the contribution of Anima, I think it's a quite impressive increase towards, of course, the final target, which is more related to 2027. And again, we are also committing in paying the same amount of dividend for this year. In terms of governance, no, we do not need any approval. It's Crédit Agric ole. I think that needs approval from ECB.
We just have, as I mentioned before, we have done some change in our bylaws in order to accommodate, not only for Crédit Agricole, but for the minorities, all the minorities, a more consistent pace, also considering the level of shareholding held by Crédit Agricole. So we are going ahead. Of course, in order to change the bylaw, we need an approval from ECB, but it's not redirected to the Crédit Agricole possible board member.
Thank you.
Okay.
N ext question is from Manuela Meroni, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the capital base. I'm wondering if you expect to make some optimization actions of your risk-weighted assets in 2026. I'm referring to potential SRT or maybe some action in order to reduce the capital impact of Anima. The second question is a follow-up on the question that you just answered. I would like to understand what should happen in order to allow you to revise up or revise your targets for 2026 and 2027. This is something that at some stage in 2026, we may expect. The third question is on the hedging transaction that you executed in January. I'm wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more, providing some, let's say, indication also if there is any impact on the P&L. Thank you.
Thank you, Manuela. Edoardo Ginevra here . In 2026, the indication that we gave of 14% is based on, I would say, more of the same of what we had done during this year. So strong attention to capital absorption in origination, management actions to reoptimize RWA, including, as you mentioned correctly, synthetic securitizations and capital production through P&L, the 20% retained earnings, and DTAs and pull to par of fair value and comprehensive income. We have, on top, kind of confidence that at least with this market scenario, we may be even more effective, for example, in managing the bond portfolio and creating additional capital out of that if needed.
We don't have extraordinary transactions expected in this evolution to contribute to this evolution. In this fashion, what we have done in the hedging transaction is a simple capital hedging structure that we have to avoid, to deduct from capital participations that would have exceeded the threshold of 10% for the total participations below 10%. So it's a transaction that creates a synthetic short position counterbalancing the long positions and net-net generating capital efficiency via avoiding the deduction.
As far as your second question, let me remember, Manuela, that we gave this number only in February this year. We're numbers that we gave under an OPS. So I think you can understand that we were not shy when we gave this number to the market. We are very happy that in the first year, we were above. We are as well confident that we will be good in 2026 and 2027. But for 2026, let at least go through one or two quarters in order to understand better the situation. For 2027, just some figure.
We have a target of EUR 2,150 million. Without Anima, we are at EUR 1,880 million. It's EUR 270 million. Let me say that we can add another EUR 100 million of tax that we didn't expect. It's EUR 370 million. It's 20% more than the net profit this year. So let me wait a bit in order to increase a 20% increase on net profit, to which we are still very much committed. But it's difficult to say that we can, right now, two years in advance, raise this target.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Next question is from Delphine Lee, JP Morgan.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. First of all, I just wanted to come back on the governance. Just trying to think about if you could give us some color about what you think once Crédit Agricole will have some representation in the board, what implication that would have long-term strategically. My second question is just a very quick one on guidance on sort of net financial results, if you don't mind, given it can be sometimes a bit volatile. I mean, if you don't mind giving us a little bit of sort of a reminder of what you said in your business plan and then also maybe for this year, what do you expect including or excluding the dividends of Monte Paschi. Thank you.
Okay, Delphine. For the first question, frankly speaking, I think that there will be important shareholders which will be represented in the board. It doesn't change that the bank remains a public company with a very important shareholder. I think we have been able to run the bank quite independently up to now. All the moves we have done in insurance asset management are completely showing the independence of mind of our management.
I don't expect any implication in this regard. Of course, we will strengthen all the rules related to the conflict of interest. This is something that also ECB will require for anybody being in our board running a business which is in some way in competition with us. But for the rest, I think also Crédit Agricole is very happy. They have invested very recently in our bank. They are getting some good reward from the investment. We have two joint ventures in common. So I don't expect anything different from what we do right now.
Okay. On net financial result, I think that it's no surprise that this is an item that shows some volatility. We inserted in our strategic plan a conservative outlook for this item of the P&L, which, after some reclassifications that we have done and we explained to the analyst community in June or in the Q2 of this year, can be quantified in slightly below EUR 50 million. This is the indication for 2027.
Current expectation is to be able to be confident to do better than that, leveraging on both the reduction in cost of certificates and on the ability to produce revenues from our structuring activity that is included within the certificates and so on and so forth, which is included within trading. Last but not least, of course, this item will include dividends from MPS, which is factored into our plan for an amount consistent with the dividend payout which was announced one year ago by the bank.
Thank you very much.
Next question is from Luís Pratas, Autonomous Research.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one is on the cost of risk guidance. So essentially, you printed 40 basis points this year. You also reduced the NP ratio significantly. I was just wondering, why do you reiterate the 43 basis points 2026 target? Are you seeing any signs of deterioration picking up? And then my second question is on the tax rate. Can you provide guidance for the tax rate in 2026? I think you had 29% in 2025, so not sure if there were any one-offs here or can we just assume maybe 2 percentage points higher, so 31%? Thank you.
Hello. Hi, Giuseppe Castagna. No, you're right. Of course, cost of risk, if we have now, our cost of risk is basically driven by default rate. As you were mentioning, we have a very low stock, very well provisioned, so we don't have any possible increase of cost of risk coming from managing the stock. Of course, inflow, the default rate is always a question mark.
We have had a very good 2025 as well as good 2024. With this assuming, there could be another year at that level, of course, we will have some bettering in terms of cost of risk. But of course, it's very difficult, especially if we forecast a potential increase in the demand, which we don't see yet so strong but could become strong, it's difficult to not consider at least 1% of default rate. If the default rate will be lower, considering that we don't have any stock to manage, increasing provision, of course, the run rate related only to the cost to the default will be lower than our guidance, and we will update it during the year.
Tax rate, we are in our outlook in the area of 33%, including, of course, the increase in taxes coming from the recent budget law. This year, correct, your observation has been lower. It's a technical outcome of the same budget law originating one-off effects on DTAs that were readjusted to the new tax rates introduced by the budget law. So we basically have increased the current fair value of DTAs, and this generated one-off benefit on taxes.
Thank you very much.
Next question is from Fabrizio Bernardi in Intermonte.
Yes, good evening. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have actually two. So the first one is whether there is any chance that you will be able to obtain a review on the ECB's decision on the Danish compromise. And the second one, also on Anima, is what are, in your opinion, the most reasonable options you have in the medium term for the stake you hold in Anima? I mean, keep it listed, delist it, or bring in the industrial partners? Thank you.
No, on the Danish compromise, I think that the recent publication by EBA seems to close the various doors. So we are not taking in our plans, we're not assuming to have benefits from reviews. Also, bearing in mind this recent position from EBA.
On Anima, 10%? Yeah. On Anima, as I mentioned also before during our other presentation, we are really happy to be free to decide what to do with the remaining 10%. As you know, we have the possibility to take on board other partners, new commercial partner, old commercial partner. All the definition of the banking system in Italy is ongoing. So let us wait the right moment to decide what to do.
Of course, having the Anima listed, I think, is much more flexible to operate in this respect, also considering that basically for one year, we had to offer to the remaining 10% stake the same price of the OPA we did and basically right during these hours the price of Anima is coming back towards EUR 7. So, of course, it's something that we will decide, but we are not pressed. We have many projects, many potential opportunities that we want to exploit.
Okay. Thank you.
Next question is from Noemi Peruch , Morgan Stanley.
Good evening, and thank you for taking my question. So I would like to ask which P&L line you see room for overperformance in 2026, and which action are you planning to implement to reach targets? You mentioned, I will say, spread, but if you could elaborate more, it would be very useful. And then on the capital and 18 basis points common equity impact from the hedging transaction, am I understanding correctly that you hedged the stake in Monte? And if so, what's the net stake at the minute? Thank you very much.
Again, we gave on page I think the last page of my presentation was very clear in saying that we are above the plan, both in total revenues, in operating costs, in cost of risk. For sure, this will be the aspect that are more encouraging. Specifically, I would say commissions, thanks to the consolidation of Anima for the full year. Of course, the insurance that we made the focus in order to make you understand the pace of growth we are experiencing.
All the commissions, I think, will grow and will be better than this year. Of course, NII depends from the interest rate where it will stand. Of course, with Euribor, which is like the current one, and we consider it to be stable, of course, we think that we will be in line with 2026 forecast but lower than this year. Cost of risk, as I mentioned before to your colleague for Q&A, we think that depends on the default rate. We are assuming the 1% default rate. We think that with a better default rate, we can do better.
On the hedging transaction, I prefer to repeat what I said. We had inefficiencies due to the fact that in total, our participations below 10% exceeded the 10% of own funds threshold, and we implemented the transaction allowing us to come back within that maximum level, avoiding these deductions.
Next question is from Hugo Cruz, KBW.
Hi. Thank you for the time. Yeah, just one more question. So you talked about a lot of the revenue lines. I don't think you've given an indication for trading, which has been very difficult to forecast. Also related to trading, should we expect any material impact from this hedging transaction in January? So if you could just give a bit of an indication, what could be the trading income in 2026? Thank you.
Well, it's always, I mean, difficult to commit with indications on single lines. So the P&L trading, of course, is the most difficult. So again, allow me to say that in the current market scenario, we believe we'll be able to do better than to improve the final level of contribution of trading, both in 2026 and in 2027, allowing us some room of maneuver in general to exploit tailwinds on the revenue side.
Thank you.
Next question is from Adele Palamá, UBS.
Yes. Hi. Good evening. Sorry to repeat the question, but I have a question on the NII evolution. So in the target for 2026, so the quarterly rate basically implied a little bit of decrease versus this quarter print. So now I understand that the guidance has a degree of conservativeness, but I want you to understand, in terms of lending growth, are you still expecting I think the plan had the 1.7% growth as an assumption?
And then how is the lending growth expected also for 2027? I mean, is there any change or potential upside on that loan growth? And then which are the possible headwinds that might bring the quarterly rate for 2026 NII down versus the Q4 ? And then the second question is actually on the capital. I just want to double-check the DTA recovery that you had in 2025, the impact on the capital, the total one, and then the DTA recovery that you expect for 2026 and 2027. I have an amount of around 80 basis points between 2026 and 2027. I just want to check if that amount is correct. Thanks.
Okay. I'll try to answer to your first question related to NII. I think it's very consistent with the Euribor forecast that all the banks are doing, basically flat on 2%. We are still linked to our forecast of growth in terms of loans. But as I mentioned before, for instance, this year, we were very much better in terms of deposit growth. So we depend also on that. Having said that, we are reducing in our forecast the reduction vis-à-vis 2025 if you consider the new Euribor average for 2026, and we feel that it's not conservative, it's quite consistent with the current situation. Maybe Edoardo, do you want to say on the DTA?
Yes. We gave indication that we expect from DTA in February comprehensive income in total 150 basis points of capital creation between 2026 and 2027. Most of this capital creation will definitely come from DT As.
Okay. Sorry. If I can make a follow-up on the NII. I mean, so if the lending growth of 1.7 has an upside risk in your estimates?
What do you mean, sorry, an upside risk?
Do you think that you can do better?
Okay. Of course. Normally, if there is a growth, our bank, historically, due to the geographic footprint and strength in structured finance, SMEs, corporates, normally, we grow more than the banking system. But we don't see yet such a strong growth in order to say that we can change the forecast of 1.5%-1.6% growth.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you.
Mr. Riscassi, gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Sorry. We have one more question from Giuseppe Grimaldi, BNP Paribas.
Good evening, and thanks for taking my question. I have a brief one related to the replicating, just a clarification. You said before that you expect some tailwind from the replicating this year. Can you help us in understanding the magnitude of that?
I mean, EUR 25 billion of average volumes, magnitude may help if you compare a scenario of past year 2.17-2.2, let's say, average Euribor, this year expected level of 2% and some delay in the translation of Euribor into cost of the swap. So the order of magnitude is slightly less than the 20 basis points multiplied by the EUR 25 billion.
Thank you for the clarification.
Yeah. Also, we'll depend, sorry, on renewal of existing swaps with new ones. So there are risks in that because we have part of this replicating that is maturing during the year, some EUR 6 billion, and over time, we will need to see what will be the market rates from the swap curve.
Thank you. Maybe just a quick follow-up if we can expect some growth in NII considering you have given a pretty solid outlook in terms of volume and replicating as well. It's expected to be a tailwind. What kind of NII growth we can expect for 2026?
We stick to the guidance that you gave in the plan. Conservatively, stay slightly above EUR 3 billion.
Okay. Thank you.
Gentlemen, we have no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you very much to everybody. I expect to see you in person in the next few days. And thanks for your attendances. Bye.
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