Good evening. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Banco BPM Group first half 2026 results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Riscassi, head of investor relations of Banco BPM. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon. Thanks for attending the conference call of H1 2026 results, which will be presented by our CEO, Mr. Giuseppe Castagna, and our joint general manager, CFO, Edoardo Ginevra. All the materials, presentation, the press release, are available on our website under the investor relations section. Of course, as usual, please limit yourselves to maximum two questions each. Now let me hand over to Mr. Castagna. Thank you.
Good evening, everybody. Happy to be here to present a very strong set of results of our first half of 2026, which allow us, first of all, to boost shareholder returns and to announce a new commitment of remuneration going up from six to seven billion over the plan horizon up to 2027. We will go further into detail immediately. Let's say that the performance of this first year, and in particular of Q2, was really fantastic. We have a record profitability in terms of net income with the highest level of net profit at EUR 1,060 million, improving revenue mix, Cost Income, and Cost to Risk.
Record asset quality going below 2% for the first time ever in terms of gross NP ratio, and record capital generation, which allow us to have a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 14.40%, 140 basis points versus planned minimum threshold, and 240 bips in the last 18 months since year-end 2024. These results allow us to confirm and to increase the net income guidance from 2026 above EUR 9,500 million, for a total expected of DPS equal or higher to one euro.
Let me remind that with these results, which is of course in line with the planned target, but this year we will overcome practically of EUR 100 million, the results of the original plan because of the external headwinds that you may remember come from the fiscal law and the Banca Progetto deal, which amounted for EUR 100 million, and were not taken, of course, in consideration when we did the original plan. Let me say that we will also raise the interim dividend guidance to EUR 750 million, which means EUR 0.50 of dividend per share, up from EUR 0.46 last year, meaning EUR 700 million of distribution. This give also us room to enhance remuneration of our shareholders through a mix of buyback and additional dividends, which will be announced officially after we will have the ECB approval.
Let me say that through this combination, we will have a cumulative remuneration target, which I would say go backs to EUR 7 billion in the plan horizon from EUR 6 billion, which is back to the plan maximum level before the Anima transaction. You may remember that we announced in the first time in February 2025 the possibility to distribute EUR 7 billion if the goodwill Anima wouldn't be deducted from our capital.
You know very well that we didn't obtain the Danish Compromise, and we were obliged to reduce dividend distribution to EUR 6 billion. Nowadays, we can be able again to raise this target to EUR 7 billion, which from now on will be the target that we have for the cumulative four years, which means EUR 4 billion in the next two years, 2026 and 2027. This is, thanks, on page 7, to a very sustainable and constant long-term value creation.
We have, again, one first half net income record. We wanted to show you the progression of these results through the difficult years of this restructuring after the merger of the bank, the consolidation after the pandemia, and the starting of the new transformational strategy started in 2023, with the taking on board the new product factories in 2023 related to bank insurance, in 2024, the new Numia deal for payment system, and in 2025, the acquisition of Anima. Since then, we have been increasing our net profit from EUR 650 million in 2023, EUR 770 million in 2024. Let me remember, in 2024, we had 1.74 Euribor higher than the current one. Not withstanding that, now we have reached 1.077, 1.060 stated, which means a strong increase through the non-NII interest. We will come back soon also with some more detail.
Which means a net income adjusted CAGR of 18% since 2023, and again, the capability to offset more than 100 basis point of reduction of Euribor with always stronger net profit results. Let, on page 8, to talk and to show you how our total revenues changed during the last two years. In 2024, we had non-NII revenues for EUR 1.07 billion, which represented 38% of the total revenues. In 2026, first half, we are having almost EUR 600 million of non-NII revenues on our total revenues, which represent 52% of the total revenues, with an increase of 55% on a two-year time. An important increase year on year comes from the product factory that 2026 on 2024 first half grew EUR 77 million, which is 10% higher than the last year result.
Of course, this revenues increase was coupled with a very strong Cost/Income control. We went down from 48% to 43% in first half 2026, and a Cost of Risk which went down from 38 basis points in 2024 to 31 basis points this year. Talking of NPE, let me remind that we were able, since the merger, to reduce the gross NPE ratio from 24% to below 2%. We are now 1.96%, which net is 1.03%. Let me remember, without any share issue during this 10 years period. Excluding the NPE with state guarantee, we have now a net NPE ratio of 0.53% and a net bad loan ratio at 0.1%. A very good performance also in default rate, which is down to 0.73%, down from 0.84 of last year.
We were also able to reduce the share of stage 2, which now represents 7.4% of total performing loan versus 8.1% last year. The strongest impact comes from the capability of the bank through profitability and management action to build up a strong capital position. We now reached 14.4%, which means 240 basis points higher than in the last 18 months. We position also the reduction we had to absorb in 2025 through the acquisition of Anima without the Danish Compromise. This accounted for 240 basis points, which coupled with the regulatory headwinds, add to 300 basis points of deduction that we had to rebuild during these 18 months. As a matter of fact, being at that level, we now think there is room to enhance shareholder remuneration through allocation of buyback or dividends to be determined exactly following ECB approval and of course, shareholder meeting approval.
We will be able to maintain our target level of common equity Tier 1 above 13% threshold, thanks to, again, the internal capital generation, the DTA reduction still to come in the next two years, and the managerial action, which we're always able to manage in order to build up more capital. On page 12, let's have a look to the Q2 results. We have an increase in Net Interest Income Q on Q of 4.6%, a slight increase in net fee and commission, an increase of 3% of core revenues. If we go after net financial results and other net operating items, the total revenues grew 9% Q on Q and 7.7% year-on-year. Operating costs were down year-on-year 1.2%, up on the last quarter 2.9%, bringing pre-provision income at 13.8% and 15% higher Q on Q respectively and year-on-year.
We had also a very good result in terms of loan loss provision, which amounted to EUR 76 million, with a decrease year-on-year of 14%, which contribute to have a pre-tax profit 18% higher year-on-year and 15% higher on last quarter. Going down, of course, we will see also net income adjusted 13% higher year-on-year and 23% higher Q on Q. The evolution of the Q2 results are shown in the right side of the page, where you can see the last two second Q quarter in 2024 and 2025. You can see how our strategy implemented all the main figure in order to get the final results. Total revenues grew 22% in two year. Cost/Income down from 49% of Q2 2024 to 42% in Q2 2026, which is our best ever results.
We already talked about loan loss provision. Pre-tax profit grew 52% from EUR 600 million to EUR 900 million. Let's go through some detail of the profit and loss. Net interest income back to increasing quarter-on-quarter 4.6%, with, of course, Euribor, which is growing quarter-on-quarter of 15 basis points. The contribution is coming both mainly from commercial banking activity, but also from the Govies portfolio. We were able to manage the increase of Euribor very well, especially in liability spread, which grew more than Euribor average, which brought our liability spread from 1.44 to 1.60, reducing only two basis points the asset spread. The total commercial spread grew from 2.89 to 3.03. No main news about the sensitivity. More or less is the same as last quarter.
We are still with the small increase of replicating portfolio vis-à-vis the target of EUR 25 billion. We will be reduced in the second part of the year. Meanwhile, we started to reduce from 37%-35% the indexed current account in view of the increasing Euribor environment. Another very good news comes from lending volumes. We are continuing commitment to support our clients, even though preserving our loan book quality, as I mentioned before. The new lending first part of the year is EUR 13.8 billion, of which EUR 7.6 billion in Q2, which is 22% higher than Q1. The loan book is growing 1.8%, which is exactly in line, even higher than the total growth for 2026. This growth is coming especially year to date from the non-financial corporates, which grew almost 3%.
The quality of the portfolio is secured by the location of our clients. 72% are located in north of Italy, and by the collateral and guarantee which support our stock. 47% is secured, basically half and half through state guarantee and collateralized loans. This 47% grew to 61% if we talk about SMEs. On the right side of the page, you can see the record level of EUR 7.6 billion, which is the best new loan growth that we are experiencing. I have to say that July was even better. In only one month, we were able to grant EUR 3.3 billion. A good news comes also from the profitability coming from the new loans, which grew from 1.42% of the new loans granted in Q2 2025 to 1.57% linked to the new loans granted this first part of the year.
Net fees and income from insurance, also in this case, we are at a record level of EUR 500 million, 3.2% higher than last year, of which 51% are represented by product fees from investment sales. On the right side of the slide, you can see that the investment product fees grew 70.5% versus first half 2025 and almost 15% vis-à-vis Q2 2025. This growth comes from the very strong and solid results from Anima, which grew 15%, and also, I would say this is quite new for us, a very good performance in terms of running fee, which grew 5% vis-à-vis first half of 2025. Also, in terms of investment product placement, we were able to overcome the very strong results of H1 2025, reaching EUR 12.2 billion of sales.
Notwithstanding, there was an increase also in the placement of BTP, which is of course considered apart from the EUR 12.2 billion of asset management products. For the other fees, meanwhile, we have a reduction of 1.8% year-on-year due to the reduction of the eco bonus, which of course this year is much lower than last year. If we compare Q2 2020 to Q2 2025, we have a growth of 3.8%, coming particularly from the increase that we have from the product factories, 4%, and a strong recovery of the specialized activity, which mainly are represented by structural finance fees and trade finance fees, which grew respectively 34% versus Q1 2026 and 20% versus Q2 2025. All results are growing and leave us room for better results in the second part of the year.
Let's talk about the other side of the balance sheet, the Total Financial Assets. We grew EUR 7.6 billion in Q2 versus Q1, EUR 4 billion year-to-date, of which EUR 1.1 billion in current account, and the rest in indirect funding, for which we register a positive net flows of almost EUR 2 billion. Meanwhile, the rest, of course, is a market effect. These results are bettered also by the Anima performance. As we mentioned before, Anima contribution to total revenues of the group is 18% higher than the pro forma of 2025. You remember that we brought on board Anima only in the Q2, but we have a pro forma as it was here in the Q1 2025, and 27% of net income at EUR 145 million higher than the first part of 2025.
Total group customer Total Financial Assets adding on our own and Anima's, excluding, of course, EUR 55 billion in Anima, which are coming from Banco BPM, is very close to EUR 400 billion of Total Financial Assets. Let me pay some attention to Slide 17. This is the real change that we did during the last couple of years. As you may remember, we built up the strong activity in product factory starting from 2023, starting having results basically from the first half of 2024. In the first half of 2024, we reached EUR 456 million of the contribution from product factories. This amount is now, after two years, EUR 822 million, completely targeting and overcoming the target 2026, which the average half year was EUR 800 million, and very close to the target that we have for 2027, which is EUR 860 million.
The share on total revenues of the product factory grew from 16% of 2024 to 26% of this first part of the year. On the right side of the slide, you can see how we are a sort of unicum amongst our competitors. We have only one competitor which has a share of net fees and insurance very close to our 47%. The other peers are very much with a figure which are very much smaller than ours, from 42% to 32% of contribution on net fees. You know how much is important to have a solid contribution from fees independent from the volatility of interest rates.
Coming to the cost side, again, cost income 43% in six months and 42% in Q2, is 1.6% lower of first half 2025, thanks to the staff cost reduction of 4% year-on-year, which take benefit from the solidarity fund saving of last year, which reduced the cost of personnel of EUR 49 million, only partially offset by EUR 10 million of new labor contract cost. We can envisage that the second part of the year will not that different from the first part of the year. In term of TFA, we have an increase of 2.9%, because we have accounted some extraordinary cost in the first part of the year. We envisage a better second part of the year in order to reduce the increase year-on-year. We already spent some word, but it's worth to mention the very strong results in terms of credit management.
Cost of risk down to 31 basis points, NP ratio below 2%, NP coverage up to 48%. If we exclude the NPs with state guarantee, we have a coverage which is almost 60% as total coverage and more than 81% in terms of bad loans coverage. Let me hand the word to Mr. Ginevra, which will continue on the financials.
Thanks a lot, Giuseppe. Also, the contribution of our financial business to the results has been really excellent in this half year. On the left side of this slide, you see that the reserves, the contribution to capital of reserves has improved. Now we have negative reserves of EUR 256 million, down from negative reserves of almost EUR 300 million at the beginning of the year. This in parallel with the risk reduction in the risk of the government bond portfolio, whose basis point value went down from EUR 2.4 million to EUR 2.15 million in the first half of the year. The de-risking has interested also Italian government bonds down from EUR 0.83 million to EUR 0.69 million. Debt securities are at EUR 47.6 billion. 29% is fair value of comprehensive income, 71% is amortized cost, so with very limited exposures in terms of capital to market fluctuations.
Italian govies share on the total of the banking book, or govies supranational, to be more precise, is 38.4%. Improvement has been reported also in the yield of this portfolio, which is now above at the level of 250 and 55 basis points in the first half of the year. On the right side, net financial result that has shown in the previous slide improved 62.3% in first half of the year, both thanks to the contribution of cost of certificates, which went down from EUR 92 million to EUR 58 million, thanks mostly to the declining rate scenario, Euribor. On top of it also you had an improvement over on credit spread. The other NFR components improved their contribution from EUR 180 million to EUR 202 million. Half of this element is represented by dividend on NPEs is flat versus last year.
The improvement in general is driven by the contribution of global market activities and by the dynamic management of market positions. Liquidity and funding has improved both in terms of cash and unencumbered assets, which is now at EUR 53.5 billion, back to the level of December, basically. In terms of debt funding, which went up from EUR 133.7 to EUR 144.1 in the quarter, mostly driven by increase in the items of repo financing. SCR is at 143%, NSFR is at 123%, with high quality liquid assets at a very comparable level of EUR 31.3 billion. Capital. The position in June has been already illustrated in the first part of the presentation. The work that leads us at this level is illustrated on page 22, where you see how we started from 13.59%. Contribution from P&L performance is 98 basis points.
Dividends reduced level of capital by 83 of CET1 ratio by 83 basis points. Bearing in mind that here we have a level of dividend implied in this calculation at EUR 140 million, so higher than the one that we have said is the level of interim dividend, which creates additional comfort in our capital position. Fair Value of comprehensive income and DTAs improved capital position, improved CET1 ratio respectively over 60 and 30 basis points.
The growth in our business dynamics implies a reduction of 24 basis points. RWA are now at EUR 68.8 billion. MDA buffer is at a very comfortable level of 187 basis points. MREL, including the Tier 2 we issued in July, the buffer is at 468 percentage points. As usual, we have also highlighted the future contribution to capital coming from progressive reduction in deduction from DTAs and Fair Value of comprehensive income, debt reserves.
This contribution is as high in the future as 150 basis points, of which 70 basis points are expected to mature in the planned horizons in the next 18 months. I hand over again to Giuseppe for the conclusion for the final remarks.
Thank you, Edoardo. Please go to Slide 24, a brief sum up of the results we announced. We have a very strong set of profit from continuing operation, growing 32% in the last two years, and the results of this first half of the year is already above the half yearly average of 2027, which is our planned target of the four-year target we presented. Also, in terms of net income, we are growing massively and constantly because if you adjust 2024, 2025, 2026, we will see that there is a growth of almost 10%, again, also in 2026, because we have to remember that the guidance EUR 1.95 is considering EUR 100 million less of moral cost, which without them, would have represented a growth of almost 10% vis-à-vis 2025, giving us a good pace to reach also our target in 2027.
The very good news is on the left downside of the page, in which we have basically reached the composition of the net income that we envisaged in the presentation of the strategic plan. You may remember we started with wealth management protection, 24% of net income, specialty banking 11%, and 65% coming from commercial banking. Nowadays, we have 35% of wealth asset management protection, which is already in line with the target of 27%, 9% versus 10% of specialty banking, and 56% versus 50% to 55% of commercial banking. ROTE is going up from 16% on 2024 to 20.3% of this first half of the year, and more than 21% next year. All these set of results enable us to upgrade the guidance, but more important, to boost shareholder remuneration.
Higher the combination of main drivers like higher revenues, improved efficiency, and lower Cost of Risk, give us the confidence to overcome the EUR 1.95 billion of results, which is ahead of the strategic plan not to extend the EUR 100 million, give us the opportunity to upgrade the dividend guidance to equal or higher or EUR 1 per share, starting from the interim DPS, which grow from EUR 0.46 to EUR 0.50, meaning a total interim dividend coming up from EUR 700 million to EUR 750 million. More important, we have been authorized from our board to start all the regulatory procedure to increase the distribution target through further remuneration of share buyback, which will bring from EUR 6 billion to EUR 7 billion, the total remuneration of the plan. Again, this would mean to distribute EUR 4 billion in 2026 and 2027, after 2027 results.
Frankly speaking, we are very happy to show this figure because, again, once we had the disappointment about Anima Holding not deduction from capital, we were obliged to reduce from EUR 7 billion to EUR 6 billion. We always say that if we would have had the opportunity to build up more capital, we would have returned to the EUR 7 billion target. This is the case that we are very happy to announce to you. Thank you very much. I leave the floor for your Q&A session.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank.
Good afternoon to everybody. I have two questions, actually, two clarifications. The first one is on the evolution of the lending portfolio. The new business origination was extremely strong in the quarter, reaching the highest level since many quarters now. Still, I do see the stock of loans at the end of the period up only 1%, if I look at the end of the period data. I was wondering whether there are other components, like maturities, like financial components, which penalize the end of the period data? For example, if there are, I don't know, some state-guaranteed loans which came due in this quarter and in 2026, which penalize the trend of the stock. The second question is on the income, and especially in the trend of the first half, we've seen a strong acceleration, a very good performance.
If I'm not mistaken, there was also a relatively strong contribution from the performance fees of Anima in the first half. If you can please elaborate about the trend that you would expect in the second half of the year in terms of evolution of the fee income. Thank you.
Thank you, Giovanni. Let me say that as far as lending, of course, as you know, June and December, we have the vast majority of maturity of loans with the different installments, which are concentrated in these two maturities. For instance, in June, we had already accounted, of course, in the number I gave to you, EUR 2.2 billion of maturity. Meanwhile, in March, we are EUR 1.5 billion, there is always something more, which of course depresses a bit the second quarter and the fourth quarter results in terms of loans. Again, with a 1.8% year-to-date, we are very happy because we have this target for the whole year. The pace of the loans is growing. I mentioned EUR 3.3 billion in July, most possibly we can envisage better results also for 2026.
Don't forget that there is a balanced combination in which we have to grow, but we have to maintain a very good credit quality, and at the same time, we have to try to increase the spread. As I mentioned, year-on-year, we increased the spread of the new issue in 15 basis points. All in all, it's a part of our results, which we, frankly speaking, like very much after some year of very slow growth in loans, if not reduction. In commission, we have, of course, strong ambition in our plan. Let's say that we think we'll be much better than last year, this year. We have a further growth of more or less EUR 100 million for next year. I don't think there is room for upgrading, because we already have very strong results.
Basically EUR 78 million better this year from last year. Another EUR 100 million for next year, which will come again from the setup and full power of the product factory and the good pace we are having at the financial product sales.
Thank you.
The next question is from Elena Perini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I got two questions. The first one is on your credit quality, because it was one of the best surprises in my view, in this set of results. I was wondering about your guidance for the Cost of Risk for this year and if possible, for next year too, if there are some changes considering the positive evolution that you are experiencing. The second question is, again, a follow-up on commissions, because I see also from the results of your peers that there is a contribution of placement fees in this first half. What is the outlook for this component, which cannot be considered as much as recurring for the second half of the year? Thank you.
I'll start with the first question. Please can you repeat exactly what you need to understand better of the commission side? For Cost of Risk, of course, we are doing better than the business plan. Of course, the business plan was done with a sort of, let's say, prudent approach in terms of default rate, which now is being constantly below 1% for the last four, five years. Every time, I think all of us think that there could be a deterioration. Maybe we are too much prudent also in that, because the capability which we now spend in managing granting the loan, monitoring the watchlist, detecting the early warning, allow us to be very efficient in timing and capability to sell and dispose, and starting to reduce exposure where we feel to be at risk.
All in all, I can say that for sure we will do better than the business plan guidance, which were, if I remember well, 43 basis points for 2026 and 40 basis points for 2027. Also, because, as you remember, having now a stock which is so low and almost very much guaranteed from the state guarantee, is very difficult to envisage cost of maintenance, and only cost will come from default rate increase. Can you repeat on commission? Sorry.
Yes. Sure. Well, my question was referring to the Slide 15, in the sense that you have investment product placements. They were basically stable in the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, too. I was wondering about the outlook for the second half of the year for this small component. Also, if I may add, if you consider a significant amount of upfront fees also for the second half of the year. Thank you.
No, not really. I mentioned before that we are very happy to show that we are basically having a first half of the year with upfront fee, which are in line with last year, and coming exactly from the same investment product placement amount, which is around EUR 12 billion. Meanwhile, we have an increase of 5% year-on-year of running fee, which for us is very important. In terms of second half, again, we expect a bettering year-on-year 2026 on 2025. Investment fees account now for more than 50%. For sure, we will have good results. Let's remember that it is impossible to double for two because, of course, in the second half, there is August and December, which are always slower than the other part of the year. This, of course, is for investment product.
We think we can be very good, as I mentioned before, in recovering from the other commission, as we did Q1 in many of these items that I mentioned before.
Thank you very much.
Next question is from Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas.
Thanks so much for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first one is, in terms of capital distribution, could you help us to understand a bit if there could be other measures besides capital distribution in order to improve the operating profitability, such as additional early retirement programs or any other efficiency measures? Linked to that, you have improved the cost-to-income by around three and a half whole percentage points in the last 12 months, which is a remarkable performance. How much do you think you can continue improving that cost-to-income in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Ignacio, thanks for the questions. Capital distribution. If I understood correctly, the question is about if we can continue to implement managerial actions to improve capital position and generate additional efficiency in capital absorption. Definitely, we are very active, as you know from also previous presentations in the area of synthetic securitizations. On top, we are deploying a number of levers to help generating additional capital, not only from P&L but also from other sources. I underline again the 70 basis points that we have out of a total 150 of additional capital to be generated over the plan horizon from DTAs and fair value other comprehensive income reserves.
We are in a position to be very confident we can tackle further opportunities to generate additional excess capital, which already is, I would say, quite significant when you compare the 14.4, we have to the 13%, which is, I would say, a very conservative threshold, and with almost 69 billion of RWA. Just these numbers is very close to 1 billion, if you make the math. On cost-to-income , if it's all right for you.
Yeah, no, I was also thinking whether you could use the excess capital and the very strong capital position for other things that could improve further managerial and the cost-to-income by early retirements, if you see a space on the cost side linking to the second question.
No, I think that we are very focused on distributing excess capital and using efficiently for managing expectation of our shareholders. At the same time, we are extremely confident that the process of excess capital is still ongoing and may continue to give us additional flexibilities going forward, until at least the completion of the plan. If we have in front of us opportunities to deploy capital differently or to use it for risk reduction, we are confident we can have it. For the time being, we're not planning additional usage for this excess capital. Okay, coming back to cost-to-income . Of course, it is very much better than our forecast, mainly due to staff cost reduction, as I mentioned before. We have some further possibility to reduce the other administrative costs. We are confident that we can beat the anticipation we gave.
Again, 43% is a record for us, it's better than the plan. Notwithstanding that, we did 42% in Q2. I don't know, if we are able, as we did, to maintain costs at the level they are, as it looks like to be possible for this year, increase in revenues will give us a better cost income.
Thank you.
The next question is from Luis Pratas, Autonomous Research.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is on NII. There was this impressive increase in the liability spread, from 144 basis points to 160. This actually means that liability costs essentially remain flat despite the higher Euribor. I wanted to ask you, how did you manage to keep these deposit costs flat, whether there were any strategic actions? Going forward, how do you expect the liability spread to behave? Maybe more generally, if you could also provide to update the NII guidance for 2026, please. Then my second question is related with M&A. There has been plenty of speculation about the potential combination between Crédit Agricole, Italian Banco BPM. I wanted to ask you whether you think this combination could result in value generation to Banco BPM shareholders.
How do you assess the government attitude towards the potential move by Crédit Agricole to take control of Banco BPM? Do you think it's a transaction that can be politically acceptable? Thank you.
Good evening, Luis. Thanks for your questions. On NII, a few observations. Yes, correct. We were effective in preserving liability spread. These, and also on the areas of asset spread, is important to note this point. There are also some second order effect in terms of delay in cost of indexed instruments to adjust to the behavior of rates. On top of that, needless to say, we've been very effective in, how to say it, steering the deposit base, to take the maximum of opportunities in an environment of declining rates. You can observe, for example, as reported in the presentation, that we have now index current account at 65%. This number was 37, if I am not mistaken, six months ago. Of course, the share of indexed on total is the most expensive in our deposit base.
Guidance for the rest of the year is, we prefer to be prudent. Even without factoring in a further increase in base rates from ECB, still, of course, we can have improvements versus the second quarter, both in the third and in the fourth. This improvement can be even more evident in case of ECB raising rates in the next forthcoming meetings. Giuseppe answering for the second part, related to M&A.
Let me say, first of all, that all this speculation starts maybe from the fact that was emphasized a sort of declaration from Crédit Agricole that they didn't see value on the transaction we should have done with Monte. Let's be clear that the decision of not going ahead in the potential opportunity represented by a merger between us and Monte dei Paschi was decided only by the board of the bank.
The board of the bank, of course, as you know, include four board members appointed in a list, supported by Crédit Agricole. This was unanimous. Everybody decided for this decision. I explained in our press release that after months of waiting, we were not able to understand which kind of transaction, which kind of number, which kind of value for our shareholder, this transaction, which we consider a very important and profitable opportunity, unfortunately did not materialize. At that point, we decide also because after our letter, as you know, materialized also the official offer from Intesa, we decided for timeframe limits, we were not anymore in the position to pursue in August or September, maybe, a transaction which would arrive before the Intesa Sanpaolo public offer. I don't think any of the interpretation of Crédit Agricole about our transaction with Monte are true.
Of course, you can ask them. As far as our declaration related to us, that they would prefer to have a merger with us, this always been a possibility that since, I don't know, two, three, four years, since they became our shareholders, was a potential opportunity on the table. We would examine this potential opportunity, if becomes true and possible, in the interest of all the shareholder of the bank. I have to say that from an industrial point of view, I think that is a very solid merger. Of course, we have to find a solution that make happy all the other shareholders of Banco BPM, if this transaction would, at a certain time, materialize. I don't know, frankly speaking, about the position of the government.
There are rules and opportunity to respect, I don't want to enter into such things that are not related to what I can try to decide.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Andrea Lisi, Equita.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the increase of shareholder remuneration, where you come back with the additional EUR 1 billion. You indicated that you have the choice between increasing the dividend payout and the share buyback. Can you provide some color about which will be the rationale for you in selecting between an increase in the dividend payout and the share buyback? Under which situation do you think could be preferable, one case or the other? The second question is on Anima in particular. I want to ask you if you can provide any update on this front, in particular, considering that the stake listed is still at 10%, you obtain 90%. Clearly, we have seen what happened with Monte, and if this could, in some way, change a bit your position regarding what to do with the minorities of Anima.
Thank you.
We announced the increase, the borrowing, popular joke, six, seven in the distribution of the total plan horizon. At the same time, we need to abide to the rules from ECB that say that announcements of buybacks have to be precise. Only can be precise, can be done in an amount, only after an authorization is granted, in case as the one we are talking about, of a buyback on top of ordinary payout distributed by the bank. This is where we stand now. We need to start the authorization process. Once we obtain the authorization, we will be able to disclose the amount, and in due course, we will communicate to the market. For Anima, of course, let's start from the second part, which of course is very important also for the first part of your question.
What happened to MPS and Anima? We have a contract lasting up to 2030. We are confident that Monte dei Paschi stand alone, or Monte dei Paschi, in whatever situation will end up, will respect the contract that they have with us. Let's remember that this is not a wholesale deal, but is a B2B2C business in which, of course, there are, I don't know, hundreds of thousands of clients in Monte who buys our product, Anima product. I am sure that whoever will be deciding what to do will have attention and care in not disappointing their client, obliging or forcing them to change the investment product they are used since, I don't know, 15 years, 20 years to use. We are very confident about that until 2030, and then we will discuss with whoever will be in charge at that time.
For the 10%, of course, let us understand better where Monte dei Paschi will be at the end of this consolidation, the offer process. Of course, we will decide consequently.
Thank you.
The next question is from Hugo Cruz, KBW.
Hi, thank you for the time. First, a question on capital. You have this 60 basis points of benefit from Fair Value OCI reserves. Was this all from Monte dei Paschi and was mark-to-market, and was there any impact from hedges that I think you have related to this stake? That's my first question. Then going back to the buyback topic. Can you confirm that if you do a buyback, would you cancel the shares? With that, and if you do cancel the shares, mechanically that would increase Crédit Agricole's stake. What do you think about that implication? Finally, also the timing. It's almost EUR 1 billion extra of distributions, even versus consensus, I think it's an extra EUR 800 million. Would you do it in one go or would you split it between 2026 and 2027? Thank you.
Okay. This increase improvement in Fair Value Comprehensive Income, you probably have seen that in the slide where we presented the contribution of the financial components to the results, Slide 20. Negative net reserves have been reducing. This is the contribution of fair value of the comprehensive income, on top of which you have to add the tax, the DTA component. The remaining part that adds up to the 60 basis points is mark to market of NPEs, of equity holdings that we have in Fair Value Comprehensive Income, including but not limited to NPEs. A couple of additional points to note. You asked about the hedging contribution. The hedging contribution has been unsurprisingly negative in this quarter. We have some protections from the downside, which is already included in the P&L. The total net financial result would have been higher if in case of absent hedging.
Of course, this has been much lower than the capital contribution of NPEs. The only point is asymmetry between NPEs capital contribution, which is directly in Other Comprehensive Income, not going through P&L, and negative contribution hedges, which goes through P&L in the financial result. On timing of potential share buyback. If we get the authorization, as I said, we will be able to communicate an amount and timing. We expect this, given it is our inaugural transaction of this case, will take a few months. Difficult for us to say end of this year or early next year, but this is the best expectation we can give, we can provide at this stage. In any case, it's EUR 4 billion in two years, whenever it will be. Let me say about the share buyback cancellation. Of course, we'll do a cancellation.
Of course, our shareholder, all the shareholder will be, I would say more or less 3% higher in the terms of their stake. I think this, whatever will be the kind of shareholder remuneration, we will make happy all the shareholder, including Crédit Agricole, which has always been declared to be an happy shareholder of Banco BPM. We don't think to put in any embarrassment anybody, if we do this kind of transaction. We don't know if they stay at the current level, 29.2%, or they would grow to 29.9%. They already had the authorization. We don't know exactly what is the figure for which we could avoid, if we have a share buyback, Agricole to increase. Practically speaking, they will be in the same position of today, they will find themselves maybe above 30%.
If they don't want to launch, they have a certain period of months in order to reduce the participation. If they want to launch a compulsory offer, they will do, as well as they will do if they stay at 29.9%. I don't think anybody will be embarrassed, I hope all the shareholder, including Agricole, will be happy of this further remuneration, which shows the strength of the bank in rebuilding capital and make profit. If I may add a very technical point. The impact of any share buyback on the ownership of the bank depends on the amount, which is currently undefined, given that we will need to wait for the authorization of ECB for that.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Adele Palamà, UBS.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon. I have two question, please. One is on the fees. Running fees are basically stable quarter-on-quarter. I've seen, the AUM is up 5%, probably because of market performance. I was wondering, basically, the margin is down a little bit. What is driving that decrease? It's asked me, just to understand that decline. Then, on capital, can you remind us the sensitivity of the OCI reserve to the BTP? Thanks.
Reserve sensitivity to BTP, I have to dig a little bit. I don't have it on top of my mind. As far as running fees are concerned, this is in part a matter of composition. Basically, we are increasing the component of running fee from mutual funds. There is a small reduction in assets under administration that explains the stability. I'll come back soon with the number of the sensitivity.
Okay, thanks.
The next question is from Noemi Peruch, Morgan Stanley.
Good afternoon. I have a follow-up on the additional remuneration, because you say it could be a mix between dividends and buyback. When it comes to the dividends, would you consider increasing the ordinary payout, or are you just thinking about an extra dividend? On capital for the second part of the year, and sorry if you mentioned this before, I was wondering about the moving parts. How much the benefit of the DTA would be, and also if you can remind us some capital headwinds maybe, and potential SRT benefits. Thank you.
We said what we said, we are going to increase up to EUR 7 billion the total shareholder remuneration. I think we have been quite open to make you understand which kind of authorization we are going to ask; we don't have so much time to think what will be in case there would be a different form of remuneration. Let's stand to what we have said already. On H2 guidance for capital, let's say that we expect to stay stable apart from any impact from authorizations in buyback. The ordinary part will be stable, meaning that capital creation from DTAs, which will be similar linearly to what happened in this quarter, and from retained earnings, is compensated by expansion in business. SRT, yes, we are planning to proceed with one additional transaction.
Thank you.
The next question is from Marco Nicolai at Jefferies.
Good afternoon. First question is on the BMPS stake. Can you just remember us how the capital is impacted by this stake? I guess by now it's in deduction, so if the shares go further up, you don't have any impact on capital, but at the same time, you have the hedging impact in your P&L. Can you also remind us what type of hedging you have? How much of it is hedged? This is the first question, and second question is on the traditional banking fees. These were down year-on-year in the first quarter, but they recovered quite a bit in the second quarter. What's driving this, and what's the outlook for this line in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Didn't understand, sorry, Marco, the second part of your question.
The second part was about the traditional banking fees.
Okay.
The banking fees. I was just wondering, they recovered quite a bit in the second quarter if I look at the year-on-year number. What's driving, and what do you expect in the coming quarters?
Now I would say Monte dei Paschi, it's a financial stake below 10%. I can go back to CRR rules and explain that these stakes are risk-weighted up until the moment where the total of such stakes is below 10% of total capital. Any additional amount is deducted from capital. This is calculated net of short positions. Hedging that we have help reducing the total level of the stake to be accounted, to be included in the calculation. The overall, these hedges, the only point I can add is, are structures that are quite out of the money, far away from the current market price, and designed on purpose to be like that. Of course, the dynamics of the price of this asset is such that when it increases, we have a capital benefit.
At the same time, we could have either an increase in risk-weight or an increase in the deductions, depending on the total level of financial participations below 10%.
Okay, Marco, for commercial banking vis-à-vis, we mentioned before, we are recovering very much vis-à-vis Q1 and also vis-à-vis Q2 2025. There's been a strong recovery in what we call specialized activities, which mainly are structured finance, trade finance, and investment banking, which basically recovered all the gap vis-à-vis the first half of 2025 with a strong increase in Q2 and Q1. Let's say that the situation now is doing very well. Product factories contribution is good and will continue to be good. The only, let's say, backfire is that, as you know, in the second part of the year, normally including August and December, there is normally a small reduction in total fees. More on investment fees rather than in commercial fees. We expect a tenure of all these different items .
Thank you.
The next question is from Sofie Peterzéns, Goldman Sachs.
Yeah. Hi, here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs. Thanks a lot for taking my question. It's very helpful that you gave the net income guidance for 2026, but I was wondering, why did you put only EUR 1.95 billion? It looks quite unambitious, if you look at the EUR 580 million that you already printed this quarter and close to EUR 500 million in Q1. The full year run rate is already above EUR 2 billion. Maybe if you could just talk why, you didn't put the more ambitious net income guidance for 2026, and similarly, how should we think about the 2027 target that also looks quite low, considering the numbers that you printed. My second question would be on going just back to net interest income. You give very helpful guidance that your rate sensitivity is EUR 150 million for 100 basis points parallel shift.
How quickly do you see this rate sensitivity come through? Is it within 12 months or 24 months? If you could just talk about the dynamics on how quickly you can reprice the asset side. Thank you.
Yeah, as far as the NII, basically this is a quarter where we will see more clearly the impact of increase in Euribor on the asset side, because most of our index loan portfolio, which is more or less two-thirds of the total, reprices in June. The level of rates three months, six months, Euribor in June, will drive the repricing of index part of the portfolio in the second half. Part of the repricing is reiterated in the third quarter, but most, as I said, of the portfolio is priced twice a year. Now in June and in December.
Sofie, for the first part of the question, you don't have to be so negative. It's normal, if you compare also the results done by the other banks in the first half, they are not replicating the double the second part of the year.
Of course, especially in Italy, I would say there is August and December, which accounts a lot in terms of fee production. For us, on top, there is also the situation that in April we have the dividend coming from Monte dei Paschi, which of course is not replicating the second part of the year. Let give me this advice, try to compare last year second half, and make something on, and you will find that you will be happy of the total results.
That's very clear. Thank you.
Sorry, coming back to previous question on sensitivity to BTP of our reserves. I think that the key number is already provided in the presentation, actually, which is this 700,000 690,000 basis point value for Italian government bonds in Fair Value Comprehensive Income component.
Thank you.
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Okay, thank you very much. Have a great holiday period, and we'll see each other in September. Thank you.
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