Welcome, and thank you for joining the doValue first quarter 2026 financial results presentation. As a reminder all participants are on a listen only mode and after the presentation there will be opportunity to ask questions. Could anyone need assistance during conference call they may signal operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor of doValue. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations and M&A at doValue. I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO, and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our Q1 2026 financial results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for this quarter. We will conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning, everyone. Let me start with the three key messages. We confirm our full year guidance of EUR 800 million revenue and EUR 300 million EBITDA, pro forma for the acquisition of coeo, with the Q1 in line with our internal phasing. coeo, the engine of our next growth phase, is performing ahead of expectation on every metric, with commercial synergies already activated. Commercial momentum across our core servicing business remains strong and increasingly diversified, with non-NPL asset classes taking the lead.
The year-on-year comparison reflects a very strong Q1 2025 base. To be clear, last year was not supported by non-recurring items. It benefits from an unusual timing concentration of revenue effects that normally materialize across different quarters of the year. On a like-for-like basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. This is why our EUR 55 million EBITDA before coeo is fully consistent with our full year guidance and internal phasing. Historically, the first quarter represents between 15% and 20% of full year EBITDA.
On top of that, we will consolidate the full contribution of coeo from Q2, a business that is growing at a sustained pace. Taken together, this puts us on the trajectory towards the 2026 combined target. Commercially, the quarter also confirmed the momentum continues. New business reached EUR 1.6 billion, in line with the EUR 8 billion annual target, with a healthy contribution from both new mandates and forward flow agreements. Most importantly, coeo is performing ahead of expectation on every key metric. In Q1, coeo revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, and EBITDA ex NRI was around EUR 26 million, clean of portfolio collections.
From Q2 onwards, coeo turns doValue into broader, faster growing and an [AI-enabled] group, with the first commercial synergies already started and revenue synergies expected to materialize from third quarter. A quick update on the timing of our Capital Markets week. Given that coeo closed in mid-April and is central to the new phase of the group, we want the new business plan to fully reflect coeo management platform and growth opportunities, as well as all the technology levers which will enable our growth and operating efficiencies.
We will therefore hold the Capital Markets week in October, presenting an integrated business plan for the combined group from day one. On automation, coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platform in its segment, reporting more than 17% of cases resolved digitally. Finally, our capital structure remains solid. Net leverage was 2.3x at quarter end, on track towards 2.2x by year end. Fitch reaffirmed our BB rating with stable outlook in April after the coeo closing. On this basis, the board has resolved a dividend of EUR 0.09 per share, payable next week.
Sustainable and recurring cash generation will allow us to approach shareholder remuneration in a consistent and pragmatic way going forward. We will share more details at the October Capital Markets Day. To sum up, Q1 was in line with our internal phasing. The year-on-year dynamic reflects timing rather than underlying trends. coeo is performing ahead of expectation. With the closing of coeo, the group enters a new phase of growth, diversification, and value creation. If you follow me on page three, let's move to coeo. Here, the message is very positive.
First, one important point. The Q1 coeo numbers you see on this page are not yet consolidated in doValue reported first quarter results since the transaction closed on April 16, after quarter end. coeo is the engine of our next phase of growth and will fully consolidate to our P&L from April onwards. This engine is already running at full steam. coeo had a very strong first quarter. Revenues were up 26% year-on-year. File intake grew by more than 40%, the revenue run rate is already well ahead of our expectation.
This confirms the quality of the asset that we have acquired and the strength of its digital-first model. Importantly, this growth is becoming more diversified. Klarna remains a key client, is now significantly less than half of total file. More than 60% of files are non-Klarna, supported by new clients in Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, as well as renewal across existing clients. On automation, coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platform in its segment. It processes 345,000 KAI customer interaction in the quarter, up 26%, with 70% of activity handled digitally.
This is translating into real efficiency, with the revenue per quarter up 24% year-on-year. The platform is also expanding geographically through a proven greenfield playbook that requires very limited CapEx. Sweden is a good example. After just one year, revenues grew by 77% year-on-year, reaching EUR 6 million in the quarter. Denmark has now been confirmed as an additional market, bringing the doValue group to 14 countries in 2026.
At the same time, coeo is starting expansion in Italy and Spain by leveraging the collaboration with doValue, this is already becoming a group opportunity. We have activated commercial synergies with three major clients in Italy and Spain, starting to be managed from June 26th, operational synergies are also underway, including the deployment of coeo KAI voice agent and CRM capabilities to doValue. The takeaway is simple. While reported Q1 does not yet include coeo, the combined group is already materially stronger.
From Q2, we begin consolidating a business that is growing faster than expected, highly automated, increasingly diversified, and already generating tangible synergies with doValue. Let's now turn to page four and look at why coeo growth is structural. coeo operates in markets that benefit from several long-term growth trends. The first one is the continued expansion of e-commerce across coeo core geography, DACH, the Nordics, and the U.K. E-commerce is expected to continue growing over the coming years, with annual growth rates in the high single digits.
The second trend is the increasing penetration of buy now, pay later within e-commerce. Even in the markets where buy now, pay later is already well established, penetration remains far from saturated. In other words, most e-commerce transactions are still paid through traditional methods, which means there is still meaningful room for Buy Now, Pay Later related receivables to grow within coeo existing market perimeter. The third even larger opportunity is beyond buy now, pay later. Non-banking receivables, including telco, utilities, insurance, mobility, and commercial receivables represent a much broader addressable market.
There are high volumes, granular receivables, where traditional human-heavy servicing model is often too expensive. Where coeo digital and AI-enabled platform can create attractive economics. This is the key point. coeo does not need to rely on one single growth driver. It benefits from growth in e-commerce, growth in Buy Now, Pay Later penetration within e-commerce, and growth in broader non-banking receivable outside buy now, pay later. In DACH, the Nordics, and the U.K., where coeo is already operating, this creates a clear and immediate runway.
These are markets where the platform is already present, where client relationship are already in place, and where there is still significant wide space to capture. Italy, Greece, and Spain represent an additional opportunity, but with a different timing. These markets are still much smaller in terms of Buy Now, Pay Later and digital receivable penetration, so we see them more as a medium to long-term growth options.
The important point is that doValue already has scale, local presence, and institutional relationship in these countries. As these markets develop, we will be positioned with coeo technology and operating model into them. Let's now turn to new business on page five . Our commercial engine continues to perform. year-to-date, new business reached EUR 1.6 billion, in line with the trajectory towards the EUR 8 billion annual target.
Considering the usual phasing of the year and the pipeline I have, this is a solid result, particularly because this year there wasn't any sale of large legacy portfolio like the Project Alpha I in Greece last year, and still delivered EUR 1.6 billion of new business. This is business as usual. The mix is also encouraging. In Italy, we signed EUR 560 million of new servicing mandate with non-NPL asset classes, including reperforming and new UTP exposures, accounting for around 70% of new mandates in Italy. This confirms that diversification is progressing in practice and not only in our strategic narrative.
In the Hellenic region, new mandates amounted to around EUR 300 million, with a balanced contribution from Cyprus and Greece. We also completed the first-ever sale of reperforming loans in Greece while retaining the servicing of the portfolio. An important signal that the Greek market is evolving and that reperforming loans are becoming a recognized and investable asset class. Forward flow remains solid at around EUR 700 million in the quarter.
In Italy, BPER contract flow were up 20% year-on-year, despite the fact that the bank, Banca Popolare di Sondrio perimeter will only start contributing after completion of the merger with BPER, which occurred on April 2026. This means that we expect some contribution from Sondrio flows from Q2, with the full effect from Q3 onwards, as well as the stock to be added. Importantly, new inflows were 1.45x collection, supporting GBV stabilization.
The method is simple. Even in a clearer banking system and a normalized NPL market, doValue continues to generate new business, replenish its servicing base, and expand into more diversified asset classes. Let's now turn to the market backdrop on page six. The European NPL market has evolved into a new equilibrium, underpinning more than EUR 2 billion of addressable servicing revenues across our core footprint over 2026-2029 period.
This is not the same market we had 10 years ago, since at peak of the NPL cycle and banks were dealing with very large legacy stock. The market is smaller than the peak NPL market of the past, more disciplined, more recurring, and more sustainable. This is where the role of the servicer has become systemic. This is visible across our footprint. In Italy, we see approximately EUR 5 billion-EUR 6 billion of annual NP disposal from banks, EUR +8 billion of secondary disposal, and the country remains number one destination for European NPL capital allocation in 2026.
In Spain, our primary and secondary disposals together exceed EUR 10 billion annually, with the market entering a regulatory transition under the EU NPL Directive. In Greece, we have around EUR 5 billion annual flows from banks and secondary transactions, supported by GDP growth of around 6.5% and an expanding state receivable stock above EUR 100 billion. In Germany, the bank NP stock has grown 62% versus 2019 to around EUR 50 billion in a highly fragmented servicing market with no structured incumbent. A clear opportunity for scaled technology-enabled operators like us.
The second message is equally important. The opportunity is no longer limited to banking NPs. Technology and AI are making economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional human-heavy servicing model. This is exactly where the combination with coeo becomes strategically powerful. doValue brings scale, licenses, institutional relationships, and deep servicing expertise. coeo brings a highly automated AI-enabled platform for small ticket, high volume receivables.
Together, we can address both sides of the market, the new equilibrium banking NPs, and the emerging opportunities in adjacent credits and receivable segments. Let's now move to page seven to strategic ex-execution. Beyond the quarterly numbers, Q1 was an important quarter in terms of delivery against the key strategic priorities of the group. First, on Gardant, the integration is now completed. The seven workstream have been closed, the platform is fully consolidated, and synergies are entering through our rate. This is a clear example of execution ahead of plan. This is also visible in the cost base.
Staff costs were down 7% year-on-year at group level, confirming that the integration is not only completed from an organizational standpoint, but is also translating into tangible efficiencies. Second, we are preparing for new revenue pools in adjacent markets. In Italy, the 2026 Budget Law positions AMCO as the central procurement platform for the recovery of local tax receivables, and the implementing decree is expected to decide the operating rules and the addressable volumes.
This could turn what has historically been a fragmented and ad hoc opportunity into a more institutional and transparent market. For doValue, this is exactly the type of opportunity we want to capture in the next phase. Although not traditional banking NPL servicing, but it's very close to our capabilities. Data collection, legal processes, operating scale, and technology. Third, we continue to strengthen our commercial position. In Q1, we won a new servicing mandate from a new client, a leading global asset manager, reinforcing our role with top-tier investors and in secondary transactions.
At the same time, the first ever Greek reperforming loan sale confirms both new asset classes are becoming investable, and that doValue is well-positioned to remain the servicer of reference as this market evolves. The message on execution is clear. Gardant is delivered, synergies are ahead of plan, new regulatory opportunities are emerging, and institutional client diversification is progressing. The group is moving towards a broader more fast-growing segment of this market. It is executing on this roadmap with very solid balance sheets. I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financial performance of the quarter in more detail.
Thank you, Manuela. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on page nine with the review of Q1 2026 financial results. As Manuela mentioned, the quarter developed in line with our internal phasing of the year. It is worth recalling that Q1 is structurally the smallest quarter in terms of contribution to annual profitability, historically representing around 15%-20% of full year EBITDA. The year-on-year comparison should be read against a particularly high of Q1 2025 base, which was boosted by an unusual timing concentration of revenue effects spread across the year.
On a normalized basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Gross revenues stood at EUR 120 million. The trend reflects the phasing effects I just mentioned, particularly in Italy. Looking over a two-year time horizon, gross revenue is up 24% versus Q1 2024, which better reflects the step up in the platform following the Gardant acquisition. Net revenues was EUR 107 million, also reflecting the same top-line dynamics. EBITDA ex NRI was EUR 35 million. The year-over-year trend mirrors gross revenues dynamics, mitigated by continued cost saving across regions.
When adjusting for the unusual timing concentration in Q1 2025, the underlying EBITDA performance would have been slightly better year-over-year. EBITDA margin was 29%. This remains above the 26% margin recorded in Q1 2024, while the 36% margin in Q1 2025 reflected an atypically strong first quarter, driven by the same timing concentration and Gardant accretion in a quarter that is normally low seasonality.
Below EBITDA, net financial interest excluding non-recurring items decreases by EUR 3 million year-on-year, from EUR 13 million in Q1 2025 to EUR 10 million in Q1 2026. Net income excluding non-recurring items was approximately negative EUR 1 million, reflecting the EBITDA trend but supported by the above-mentioned improvement in financial charge. Reported net income was EUR -10 million, including around EUR 9 million of below EBITDA non-recurring items, mainly related to costs associated to new 2031 bond and employee exit costs.
To summarize this page, Q1 developed in line with our internal phasing. The year-on-year comparison reflects a not fully representative front-loaded Q1 2025 base. Normalized EBITDA is broadly stable, and the benefits of our refinancing are already visible below EBITDA. Moving now to page 10, we show the regional breakdown of gross revenues. Group gross revenues was EUR 120 million, down 15% year-on-year, reflecting the timing effects I just described, which were concentrated mainly in Italy. Italy explained most of the decline, reflecting the front-loaded contribution of disposals and value-added services recorded in Q1 last year.
The Hellenic region was only marginally down, again reflecting phasing of disposals, while collection in Greece grew 14% year-on-year in line with expectations. Spain, on the other hand, grew year-on-year, with NPL servicing more than offsetting the exit from Santander REO perimeter. The contribution in absolute terms remains modest, it confirms that Spanish platform is successfully repositioning towards a more focused NPL servicing model. The revenue mix also continues to diversify. Non-NPL revenues reached 43% of gross revenues in Q1, this is before the consolidation of coeo from Q2.
Outsourcing fees stood at 11.3% of gross revenues, driven by higher value-added service revenues, which are characterized by greater share of outsourcing costs. Moving now on page 11. Operating expenses decreased by 7% year-over-year from EUR 77 million- EUR 70 million, reflecting continued cost discipline across all regions and the positive run rate effect of Gardant synergies. Staff costs were down by around EUR 4 million year-over-year, with all markets contributing through efficiency measures.
This confirms that the integration work and the cost actions implemented over the past quarters are translating into visible savings. IT and SGA costs also decreased by 5% year-over-year, supported by cost initiatives across regions and accelerated synergies in Italy. The overall reduction reflects both structural efficiencies and the lower variable costs in a lower revenue quarter, with some variable costs expected to come back as activity increases.
Moving on to page 12, EBITDA reflects the combination of the two dynamics we have just discussed. Reported revenues were affected by timing, while cost discipline helped protect profitability. Group EBITDA excluding non-recurring items was EUR 35 million with 29% margin. In Hellenic region, EBITDA was broadly stable year-on-year. Q1 2025 included around EUR 3 million of disposal related contribution in Greece, a component that would normally materialize in the second half.
In the absence of this contribution, this quarter was offset by cost efficiency, leading to 47% margin. In Italy, EBITDA was impacted by the same comparison base effect discussed under revenues. Spain delivered positive EBITDA already in the first quarter, more than doubling year-on-year, driven by growth in NPL servicing revenues and cost efficiencies. Non-recurring items at EBITDA level were very limited, at a EUR -0.1 million in a low seasonality quarter.
On a normalized basis, group EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-over-year. Moving on page 13, we show the bridge from EBITDA to net income. Below EBITDA, dynamics reflects the benefits of the refinancing completed the last year, with net financial interest improving by EUR 3.4 million year-over-year. Depreciation, amortization, and net impairment were broadly stable year-over-year at EUR 17.8 million, while net provision adjustments stood at EUR 4.8 million.
Net financial interest improved by EUR 3.4 million- EUR 15.8 million as Q1 2025 had absorbed the early redemption costs on the senior secured notes due in 2026. Taxes decreased, reflecting the lower profit before tax. Minorities were also down year-over-year, in line with the quarterly performance. As a result, net income, excluding non-recurring items, was approximately EUR -1 million, with the EBITDA decline only partially offset by lower financial charge.
Reported net income was EUR -10.2 million. The EUR 9 million gap versus the adjusted figures reflect two distinct items below EBITDA: redundancy costs and the bridge financing interest on the bond issued to fund the coeo acquisition, which was classified as non-recurring until closing of the transaction on April 16th. Moving to page 14, let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics. Q1 cash flow followed the usual seasonal pattern of our business.
Q1 is structurally the weakest quarter in terms of cash generation, while the bulk of the free cash flow is generated in the second half, and particularly in Q4. To give you a sense of the magnitude, in 2025 Q4 alone accounted for EUR 54 million of free cash flow out of the EUR 76 million for the full year. In Q1 2026, cash flow from operation was EUR -12.8 million, reflecting the lower EBITDA in the quarter and the temporary working capital absorption. Free cash flow was EUR -28 million.
The EUR 35 million working capital absorption in the quarter is the mirror image of a particularly strong Q4 2025, when collection and invoicing dynamics worked in our favor. It also reflects technical timing effects in the invoicing cycle, including legal expenses in Greece. Working capital movements can swing significantly from the one quarter to the next, which is why we manage and track this metric on a full year basis. On that basis, we expect working capital to normalize with the material release over the course of the year.
CapEx was EUR 3.9 million, up EUR 1.7 million year-on-year, reflecting front-loaded investments in our digital platform and AI capabilities. This is in line with our internal plan. We confirm the full-year CapEx guidance. To summarize, Q1 cash flow reflects the normal seasonality of our business and the working capital absorption that is counterpart of a particularly strong Q4 2025. The full year trajectories remain on track. We expect working capital to become a positive contributor as the year progresses.
To conclude, let's now move to page 15 and take a look at our financial structure. Net financial leverage at the end of March stood at 2.3x , reflecting normal Q1 seasonality. We remain on track towards 2.2x by year-end. The group maintains a solid liquidity buffer of EUR 269 million, made up of EUR 122 million cash on balance sheet and EUR 147 million undrawn revolving credit facilities, providing significant financial flexibility after the coeo closing.
Fitch affirmed our B B rating with stable outlook in April after the coeo closing, confirming the sustainability of the capital structure for the larger group. Our bonds trade at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest in the industry, and our average cost of debt stands at 6.3%. The EUR 350 million senior secured notes due 2031 issued in November to finance coeo were released from escrow upon closing on April 16th.
Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunities to optimize our cost of debt as we deleverage. In short, leverage is seasonal and under control. Liquidity is strong. The rating is confirmed, and the capital structure supports next phase of the group. This is all on our side for today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.
Thank you. This is the conference call operator and will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wish to ask question may press star and one on your touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue please press star and two. Please pick up handset while asking questions. Anyone with question may press star and one at this time. First question is from Tommaso Nieddu, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Hello, and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first question on my side is on coeo, which you said it did EUR 26 million EBITDA in Q1 alone, which seems a pretty good result. My question is how that it compares with the full year 2025 results that you talked about around EUR 55 million-EUR 60 million. How can we compare it with today's number? If the perimeter portfolio impact is different, can you help us with some more details on that? The second one is on net working capital. Net working capital absorbed EUR 35 million in Q1, but you confirmed the 2026 guidance also on cash flow.
Does that mean that you confirm the EUR 15 million positive net working capital contribution for the full year? When should we see this reversal in terms of phasing? Just a last quick one on portfolio sale, on the EUR 100 million portfolio disposal at coeo. Can you give us an update on timing and on where you are in the process? Also, is it a single block sale or multiple tranches? What we should expect in terms of expected sale price relative to the book? Thank you.
Thank you, Tommaso. We'll take your first two question. As you will see, it's quite a very active performance for coeo, and was very positive this first quarter. coeo grew 27% versus the Q1 2025. We want to stress that Q1 is typically stronger for coeo because the capture collection related to Black Friday in November and the Christmas period. This tends to front load part of the yearly performance. It makes the quarterly not fully representative of the annual rate. However, if we were to extrapolate the good performance of this Q1 versus the EUR 60 million 2025 reference and align it to IFRS conversion, this would point to 2026, around EUR 8 million.
This is just a linear extrapolation of the first quarter, but it is not. The first quarter is been very strong, and it is very stronger than the following quarters. Going to the net working capital, I confirm. No, the absorption is temporary. It's working capital. The assets are there. Our target is still to recovery this amount and also to benefit for the fact that we still have on our balance sheet, the backlog coming from the previous year. This is why we guided it to have a EUR 50 million positive contribution from net working capital. This will materialize mainly the last part of the year.
Regarding portfolio timing, we are aiming for the sale to be completed by June. The approach is to sell it to a fund that we are raising because in this way, compared to the sale of to a third party, we would retain also the asset management fees and more control over the flow agreements that comes with the coeo business.
Apart from the option to sell to a third party, this is even more efficient from a revenue perspective. We are in line with the timing vis-à-vis this approach. It will be now the old portfolio sold and also the transfer of the flow agreement. The numbers that Davide has mentioned, for 2025, the EUR 60 million EBITDA are without already the portfolio sale and is comparable to the EUR 26 million of 1Q that we have referenced.
Okay. Thank you.
Next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.
Yes, good morning. A few questions from my side. The first is on the trend of the group excluding coeo. Is it possible to recover a positive growth rate for the group standalone? I mean, you have confirmed the guidance including coeo. coeo is doing better. The question is, do you expect to recover an EBITDA of around EUR 240 million? That was the original plan for the standalone group. In particular, do you see a positive growth in EBITDA in Italy after the first quarter?
Dan If you could comment on shareholders remuneration, in the past, the possibility of making a buyback as we mentioned. Do you confirm this possibility? Finally, if you could comment if it is possible on the move that Fortress, your major shareholder has made on Axactor. If there is any comment that you can share with us on this point. Thank you.
Thank you, Simonetta. I'll take your first question, and then Manuela will take the remaining one. First, our official guidance is and will remain EUR 300 million pro forma with coeo. That is the only number the company is guiding to. On the legacy business, Q1 was softer than we would have liked, but it would not be serious at this time to revisit a full year guidance after a single quarter, especially one with limited predictive value for the balance of the year. We will be very cautious and we can't rule out at this time over performance in the coming months.
We can't rule out that there is still a chance that we will meet the EUR 240 million target. Finally, most importantly, the strong performance of coeo since closing significantly de-risk our pro forma EUR 300 million target. Our confidence in the one guidance we have is reinforced right now. You will remember the first quarter of 2025, which was really strong, but we didn't revisit the guidance at that time. Because it's just a quarter, and it's not a less significant one. Let's wait for the rest of the year to see how this will develop. We think that nowadays, the most important data that you should take home is that the EUR 300 million guidance is de-risked, overall. I'll let Manuela answer the next question.
On the shareholder remuneration, we confirm the idea of activating a buyback in the second part of the year if the cash performance is in line with our expectation. We have also several other catalysts that will materialize in the next three, four months, which we are working on, which support our full year guidance. On the last point, I think the Fortress move is driven by a trend in the sector. You might have observed that some of the players are now acting later vis-à-vis what we have done two years ago of a rights issue to strengthen the capital structure.
We did it in the context of an acquisition. They are doing it only for balance sheet repair because both Axactor and also Intrum have restructured their debt two years ago and are coming with new maturity next year that they realized they couldn't afford. So it's was a timing, a very timed intervention of Fortress that is entering at a very weak point in the story of Axactor to get control with little money to be fair. The other point is where is the trend of the sector? There have been very positive results on the small ticket side for the purchasers, if you look to ICE and similar players.
The calendar provision is kicking in, and this is driving an expectation of a material increase in the small ticket, both corporate and bank. This is also why we have very positioned ahead of time in that already last year with the acquisition of coeo. The market trends in terms of results of these companies as well as the balance sheet need of players like Axactor and Intrum to create capacity to purchase more is an indicator of that. There is a growth in that segment that they will capture through the purchase, and we will capture through the servicing as well as the fund that we are raising. I hope it explains the strategic angle.
Next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco Intermonte.
Yeah, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have two. The first one is still on free cash flow because you confirmed the full year guidance in also in terms of free cash flow. If I understand correctly, this guidance include pro forma coeo contribution. I was wondering if you could help us understand how cash generation contribution should be split between legacy, do Value perimeter and coeo.
The second question is on new business, because new business intake, EUR 1.6 billion in first quarter with nearly half of new mandates related to non-NPL products. I was wondering if you could provide some color on the current pipeline for the remaining 2026. Both in terms of volumes and mix, and whether the pipeline is increasingly skewed toward the UTP performing, the performing loans and so on. Thank you.
I will take your first question on cash flow. Just to clarify the EUR 90 million guidance is for the standalone cash flow value before coeo. If we add also the contribution of coeo, which includes the positive contribution from the central portfolio we discussed before, that could be up to EUR 90 million-EUR 100 million. We need to exclude the interest on your board on annual basis, EUR 90 million, and plus we need to deduct the EUR 24 million of the transaction cost we are going to pay this month.
On the new business intake, you're right that, in the 1 Q, apart from the flow that, pretty much the EUR 700 million are split between 80% NPL and 20% UTP, coming from Eurobank and from BPER. The rest was, the vast majority was, more on the UTP and performing side. Actually performing was the vast majority because of the Greek transaction and also the Italian transaction with an international fund. How we see the business in the rest of the year.
Probably, apart from the flow that will remain with this mix, there is going to be a higher percentage, probably 70%-80%, on the UTP and performing side. Then on the small ticket, that relates mostly to the coeo business, but also to the corporate receivables. It's with the incoming presence of coeo in Italy, in Spain, and in Greece in the 4 Q, and also the pilot that we are doing in Greece with the three utilities. This will be the large driver of the growth in the last part of the year.
To be clear that there is not a question of 1 billion of GDP, but even, given the profitability and the type of collection is more around the number of files that you manage, so that is typical of the coeo business rather than the EUR 1 million amount. Overall, the mix is pretty much skewed towards the performing UTP for the traditional part and for the utilities and e-commerce for the new part.
Very clear. Thank you.
Next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on the NP outlook and forward flow contracts. You reported inflows from forward flow contracts of EUR 700 million this quarter, compared to EUR 1.1 billion in Q1 2025. Can you provide more details on the evolution of the NP market? Are you seeing a reduction in the generation of NPs by banks compared to last year, and how much of this difference is due to the loss of the UniCredit contract?
The second one, just a quick update on fiscal credit servicing. Can you provide some details on the more than EUR 250 million of potential revenues from servicing of fiscal credits? Do you include, tax credits, from the central government as well as local ones in this estimate? What are your expectation in terms of market share? Just, if there are any updates on acquiring the license needed to operate in this segment. Thank you.
On the on the difference between the 1.1 and numbers of this year is 80% is driven by UniCredit, and the remaining by a delayed incoming on the Santander new contracts of the new flows. As you know, we have given back at the end of the quarter part of the REO business, and we are getting the new in exchange NPL flow. This will go up after cleaned up of the UniCredit effect. From the 2Q, we will also get the Sondrio flows, which will add to the picture. As a data point, we mentioned that on the BPER side, we have experienced a 20% growth of the flows quarter-over-quarter.
On the tax credit, we have not included them in our budget, despite we are working on it, because the timing of the government decision, progressive law. As you know, in March, they were supposed to finalize all the new regulation. They're taking a bit more time, the indication is clear in the public documents that AMCO will distribute these value growth services. Our fair market share with AMCO is around 20%-25% in general. Clearly, here is very much driven also by the new license.
The understanding is that it's probably more, it's better. It's more attuned to buy the license rather than ask for a new one, because it requires a timing which is longer, and we would like to be ready. We are with the system, but to be ready with the license as soon as possible. We are working on that point with a few options. In terms of allocation to services, clearly AMCO, I think, will know only when the allocation will be made to them, which is in the last part of the year.
Thank you.
The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Good morning. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have three. The first is just a clarification more on the reasoning why you decided that to move forward the Capital Markets Day to October. I do understand that you will be able to get more to talk about sort of coeo performance, though at the same time, you highlight how strong it's been so far, performance this year, and you also added a few more highlights on the business on the market that they are facing.
I just wonder whether you might confirm that, given the potential M&A target that you might have going forward, if there is anything you sort of instead that might suggest that you will come up with a more enlarged perimeter by the time you will present the next three years plan. This is the first question. The second question is more on the cash flow guidance for this year.
I just wonder whether you might give us a little more color in terms of geographic contributions, where we should expect the most on these EUR 90 million to come from. The last question is just on slide six. Since I recall, you put a slide in earlier presentation, the pipeline. I just wonder whether these numbers might be reconciled with the EUR 50 billion pipeline that you put in earlier presentation. Thank you.
Yes, I will take your question. Now, the timing of the October is not driven by M&A consideration because we had said that we are focused this year on integration of coeo, starting the revenue opportunities, which are always no less controllable than the cost ones that we did for Gardant that is now fully completed. And on the leveraging, because as part of the M&A, we are selling the EUR 100 million portfolio that we still have to complete. Our focus will be on the delivery this year and on the full exploitation of the coeo opportunity within our business plan.
Consider that we have been able to work on the business plan with coeo for technical reasons, i.e., you cannot access certain type of information only after closing that has happened in the second part of April. On the other leg is the operating efficiencies. We want to be driving this sector by technology, it's not just a dream. It's the need of the sector to reinvent itself. Therefore, we are working on a very detailed plan and action on the AI to enable new revenues, but more to rethink about the processes and the way we do our business to extract as much as cost efficiencies and productivity we can.
We want to lay that in a very clear manner in our plan. On the cash flow guidance, the main contributor will be Greece because there is higher stock of working capital there vis-à-vis the other countries. The other countries don't have that stock accumulated, and therefore will be the normal conversion of revenues to credits.
On the pipeline, we try to give a different picture of it. It's consistent with the old one. It might be even larger, including coeo. We wanted to give more data points, given that we are progressing, obviously, with the Capital Markets Day, and we have done a total analysis of the future trajectory of the market in the next two, three to five years. It was just a different way to show you the depth of the market.
Thank you.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Della Seta , there are no more questions registered. Sorry. We have one more question from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca. Simonetta Chiriotti, your line is open.
Yes. Thank you. Sorry. If it is possible to have an update on Germany, and in particular on the activity in the NPE segment in that market that was flagged in the previous call as an important opportunity. Second question. I mean, we spoke of 2026 guidance. On a shorter term, is it possible to have some early guidance on the second quarter of the year? Thank you.
Sorry, Simonetta, we didn't understand the first one. The voice was not very clear. Can you repeat?
Yes. on Germany,
Okay
if Yeah, if possible, to have an update on that market, for your, traditional activity.
Yes. On Definitely. There, we had discussed last time, so we didn't repeat ourselves, but we have set up a division. We have done the hirings. We have the new headquarters for the NPE business, and we are managing now two banks. We just bid for another RFP for a larger bank, one of the top two private banks in the market. We expect another one in the last part of the year. So that division is up and running, and in the 26% upside of coeo, there is also that performance included for the first client that started end of last year.
Okay. On the second quarter performance, is it possible to have some anticipation already?
No, Simonetta. It is not common practice for the company to provide guidance on the sequential quarter. We are still developing this quarter. It is developing, and as usual, the company will interact with markets in due course.
Thank you.
Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you, Maria. Thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.