Iveco Group N.V. (BIT:IVG)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

May 15, 2025

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Iveco Group 2025 first quarter results conference call and webcast. We would like to remind you that today's conference call is being recorded. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Federico Donati
Head of Investor Relations, Iveco Group

Thank you, Ratia. Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to this webcast and conference call for the Iveco Group's first quarter financial results for the period ending 31st March 2025. This call is being broadcast live on our website, and it is copyrighted by Iveco Group. I'm sure you appreciate that any other use—recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the consent of Iveco Group—is not allowed. Hosting today's call are Iveco Group CEO Olof Persson and our CFO, Anna Tanganelli. In their presentation, Olof and Anna will be using the material published on the Iveco Group website earlier this morning. Additionally, please note that any forward-looking statement we might make during today's call is subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material.

Additional information relating to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent annual report, as well as other recent reports and filings with the authorities in the Netherlands and Italy. The company presentation may include certain non-IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures, is included in the presentation material. Finally, let me please remind you that the transfer of ownership of the firefighting business unit to listed private equity holding company Mutares was closed and completed as planned on the 3rd of January 2025. One of the facts from the transaction is excluded from all the corporate 2024 adjusted metrics. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Olof.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thanks, Federico. Let me add my own note of welcome to all of you joining our call today. As expected, the business context of the first quarter was marked by lower industry demand levels across European truck segments. As such, we acted fast to protect and reaffirm our business perspective and full-year guidance. I'm proud of the organization's decisive response and long-term focus. We made tough calls early. We adjusted production levels and realigned inventories both within the company and throughout our dealer network. We also completed the phase-out of previous-generation models while completing the introduction of our new Model Year 2024 in light commercial vehicles. These actions had short-term impacts on financials, but they were absolutely necessary, putting us in a solid position for the rest of the year. Throughout the truck sector, we had to face market softness.

Our European production was down 32% year- over- year, which also reflected our transition to the new vehicle generation and preparations for a ramp-up in demand that we expect later this year, coupled with progressive increased production. These actions affected margins and free cash flow, but they were embedded within the full-year planning and aligned with our overall strategy. Order intake in Europe and Latin America was strong for both light and heavy duty. Our book-to-bill ratio was well above one in Europe for the first time since the first quarter of 2023. This came together with our proactive steps to adjust our production capacity and realign dealer inventory. We are now increasing our production level and are well-positioned to capture every future opportunity. Powertrain continued to operate in a tough market in general for both off- and on-road applications.

Nevertheless, strict cost management and the execution of the group's efficiency program produced a leaner cost base and lower break-even point, positioning the business for an agile response when the demand recovers. Bus and defense segments continued to deliver strong results following their specific market cycles. They saw continuous margin improvements on a year-over-year basis, backed by solid order books and favorable industry momentum. What's equally important is that we didn't pause our forward momentum. We sealed two strategic partnerships in our truck business with Ford Otosan and Stellantis. In this second quarter, we have entered a joint venture to accelerate green mobility through GATE, and we secured a major contract with the Dutch Ministry of Defense.

Finally, as you have already seen from the press release earlier this morning, following the detailed assessment announced on the 7th of February 2025, the Board of Directors decided to proceed with the separation of the group's defense business via a spin-off. This is expected to take place within 2025, subject to final approval by the Board and the shareholders of Iveco Group and the required regulatory authorities. At the same time, Iveco Group has recently received preliminary expression of interest from potential strategic buyers for its defense business. The Board has therefore mandated the management to continue the preparation for the spin-off while exploring such preliminary interest. In short, during the first quarter, we did what had to be done in a timely manner and with discipline.

With strong order books, operational agility, a diversified business model, and strategic partnership firmly in place, we laid strong foundations for future growth. Our full-year guidance remains intact, our liquidity position is solid, and we are confident that our actions in Q1 have laid the groundwork for a stronger second half and a successful year. If we then move to slide five, let's take a closer look at our truck business, summarizing the two partnerships we formed during the first quarter of 2025. On the 11th of March, we signed a binding agreement with Ford Otosan for the design and engineering of next-generation cabin for our heavy-duty trucks lineup. The joint development agreement is a contractual framework for co-development of a new heavy-duty truck cabin, as well as common sourcing where applicable.

Both companies will make and assemble the cabins at their own facilities, customizing specific styling design concepts and selling the products under their respective brands for trucks and Iveco. This solution enables compliance with the forthcoming EU Direct Vision standard and will result in significant savings in investment, providing us also with a competitive advantage in terms of total cost of ownership. The focus will be on cabin comfort, safety, aerodynamics, and modularity, and also on cost efficiency, and the cabin will be prepared for all PowerTrains. On the 14th of March, we entered into a partnership with Stellantis for the commercialization in Europe of the two Iveco-branded electric vans, of which a rendering is shown in the slide, which will be produced by Stellantis Pro One.

This collaboration will make us the only company with a full lineup of electric vehicles in both the mid-size and large van segments. The launch is scheduled for mid-2026, and the partnership is based on a 10-year agreement. These partnerships were not included in what we presented at our Capital Markets Day and will further solidify our position as a leader in the light-duty truck segment while improving our position in heavy-duty truck. Now, with slide six, I'll explain more about the joint venture agreement between DLL and Iveco Group. GATE was conceived as an innovative business model with the primary goal of supporting the energy transition for our customer. GATE facilitates access to green mobility, providing rental solutions for vans and trucks that are tailored to customers' specific needs.

The joint venture will continue to help customers build green fleets, strengthening activities that began in Italy in 2023 and that were extended to France and Germany in 2024. This strategic partnership is designed to boost the energy transition in Europe by amplifying access to low-to-zero-emission commercial vehicles. Over time, the joint venture intends to offer similar solutions for low-to-zero-emission vehicles for other brands beyond Iveco. This new joint venture will provide GATE with the financial support it needs to accelerate its growth strategy and help it achieve its ambitious objectives more quickly. This is a significant advantage for Iveco Group, as the funding will be supported by DLL, while the joint venture will manage the rental ecosystem. Moving then on to slide seven, let's take a look at the truck industry volumes and market shares.

In the first quarter of 2025, European industry volumes experienced a decline versus the same period of last year. Light commercial vehicles were down by 13% versus last year, and medium and heavy trucks saw a decrease of 17% compared to the same period in 2024. With regards to LCV, it ought to be mentioned that last year's performance was inflated by a prebuy effect, making the year-over-year decline more pronounced. Despite the overall decline in volumes, our LCV market shares in the first quarter of 2025 remained at a solid 12.1%. Within the chassis cab segment, we achieved almost a third of the market share at 31.2%, up 1% versus last year, while at the upper end of the segment, our market share was 71.8%, up 7.5% versus the same period last year.

Turning then to medium and heavy trucks, our market share increased to 9.1% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 8.7% in Q1 2024. Within this category, our heavy truck market share rose to 8%, marking an improvement of 50 basis points year-over-year. These figures highlight our solid market shares, coupled with our disciplined pricing strategy, one that has been maintained even in the challenging marketing environment. Moving on to slide eight, our truck segment has shown a solid growth in order intake across segments, confirming strong momentum for our Model Year 2024 across all ranges with a book-to-bill ratio consistently above one. In the first quarter of 2025, the European order intake for light-duty truck increased by 7% versus Q1 2024 and was up 22% sequentially. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.09, reflecting a 44 basis point improvement over last year.

In South America, the order intake for light-duty trucks tripled compared to Q1 2024, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.51, up 75 basis points year-over-year. For medium and heavy-duty trucks, the European order intake in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 33% compared to Q1 2024, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.17, marking a 47 basis point increase year-over-year. This growth confirms the strong momentum for our Model Year 2024 range. In South America, the order intake for medium and heavy-duty trucks more than doubled compared to Q1 in 2024, with a book-to-bill ratio at 1.38, up 30 basis points year-over-year. Moving on to slide 10, where you can see the main achievement of our bus business unit for Q1 2025. In France, two national procurement hubs cataloged 800 Iveco Bus units, including Crossway, Evadus, and Minibus models.

This allows local authorities, municipalities, and operators to leverage an alternative procurement modality authorized by the government for these vehicles. They can simply place an order through one of these hubs, significantly streamlining their procurement process. On the 14th of April, the Crossway Low Entry Elek won the Bus Planner Innovation Award 2025 in Germany in the Intercity category. This award is a further testament to our ability to innovate and our commitment to excellence in the bus industry. In addition, we achieved a 2% market share increase in the electric city bus subsegment versus the same period last year, continuing the upward trajectory in this pivotal subsegment. Let's move on to the next slide, number 11, with the bus industry volumes and market shares.

Our leadership in the intercity segment in Europe was further boosted during the first quarter 2025, increasing by 4.9 percentage points compared to Q1 2024 to a very solid market share of 55.8%. This strong position was supported by the introduction of electric versions. In the European city bus segment, we maintained a solid 12.9% market share during Q1 2025. We anticipate an acceleration of deliveries in the second half of 2025 in line with the seasonality of tenders. Our growth in the electric city bus subsegment was particularly encouraging, registering 11.8% market share at the end of Q1 2025. In Q1 2025, Iveco Bus maintained its number two position in the European market with a 21.8% market share. This reflects our ongoing efforts to enhance our market presence and deliver high-quality, innovative products to our customers.

Moving on to slide 12, I'll focus on the strong book-to-bill ratio in our bus business, which proved significant visibility. In the first quarter of 2025, our bus order intake increased by 15% compared to Q1 2024, while deliveries remained largely flat. Our book-to-bill ratio was 1.41 at the end of Q1 2025, up 19 basis points year-over-year. This ratio is a key indicator of business health, as it provides good visibility into our likely future revenue streams. We have increased the speed of execution of our order book, particularly for electric city buses, by introducing a second shift at our Annonay plant as of April. This move allows us to meet the growing demand for sustainable transport solutions. Moving to slide 14, we turn our attention to the main achievements of PowerTrain business in Q1 2025.

On the 24th of January, FPT Industrial's M67 natural gas engine powered the Sustainable Truck of the Year award winner, the Iveco Eurocargo CNG. The M67 engine makes the Eurocargo CNG the only truck in Europe to offer natural gas across the full range. It is compatible with both CNG and biomethane, the latter enabling additional emission reductions. On the 10th of February, we marked the entry of our e-Powertrain portfolio into the marine sector with the launch of EBS37 Evo modular battery pack. This product offers impressive energy density while at the same time reducing battery weight. It can be installed to power both full electric and hybrid applications. Finally, on the 31st of March, our latest battery management system, the EB5, achieved the top level of industry ISO standard for certification, designed entirely in-house.

This battery management system is currently in volume production for the Model Year 2024 Iveco eDaily, as well as for a number of other customers' vehicles. These milestones underscore our commitment to innovation and sustainability, driving us forward in the PowerTrain business. Moving to slide 15, the continued slowdown in demand driven by lower total industry volumes and ongoing customer destocking actions has had a stronger impact in off-road segments. Engine volumes were down 22% in the first quarter compared to Q1 2024, reflecting the challenging industry environment. However, the execution of our efficiency program and additional cost containment have enabled us to adapt production to market demand and thereby strengthen our resilience. PowerTrain's new linear construction will also position the business unit well to capture expected market recovery we will see in the upcoming quarters. Moving to slide 17, let's look at the Q1 development with our defense business unit.

On the 31st of March, we signed a strategic alliance between Iveco Defence Vehicles and Metlin, a Greek mining and metal specialist, formalized through a memorandum of understanding. This collaboration aims to modernize the Hellenic Army's military truck fleet, including renewing the existing fleet of protected and unprotected military trucks for the three Hellenic Armed Forces branches. This partnership reinforces IDV's position as leading European manufacturer of military trucks and combat vehicles and Metlin's expertise in complex metal constructions and high-tech defense programs. Also in Europe, IDV was awarded, attended by the Dutch Ministry of Defense, for the supply and logistics support of 785 military logistic vehicles. The deal was finalized this month, and the vehicles will be delivered between 2027 and 2029. The 785 military trucks will be delivered in three versions: semi-trailer tractor, logistic commonality across different platforms, and among many other EU member states.

The award includes an option for an additional 785 vehicles and integrated logistics support over a minimum period of 15 years. This new award reaffirms the strong partnership between IDV and the Dutch Ministry of Defense following the contract for the supply of 1,283 Montecor Multirole Tactical Vehicles with deliveries started in late 2023. On slide 18, we highlight the solid foundation of our defense business. In the current environment, we are ramping up production to benefit from industrial efficiencies. With the ReArm Europe plan, several governments are considering the possibility of boosting existing programs with additional funds to avoid the delay that opening new processes would involve. Our long-term strategy focuses on strong internationalization and fostering client loyalty through sizable multi-year contracts. This approach not only lowers risk and provides long-term revenue reassurance, it also offers the prospect of capturing the upside of any increase in defense spending.

Next slide deals with the communication made this morning about defense. Following the detailed assessment announced on the 7th of February 2025, the Board of Directors decided to proceed with the separation of the group's defense business via spin-off. This is expected to take place within 2025, subject to final approval by the board and the shareholders of Iveco Group and the required regulatory authorities. At the same time, Iveco Group has recently received preliminary expressions of interest from potential strategic buyers for its defense business. The board has therefore mandated the management to continue the preparation for the spin-off while exploring such preliminary interest. Slide 21 takes us to the electric vehicle portfolio, quarterly performance. The e-LCV segment has maintained a good level of performance despite softening in market demand.

The e-bus segment boasts a strong order book, which is now full up to the second quarter of 2026. We aim to address this with ramping up of deliveries in the forthcoming quarters. We saw a slight slowdown in the e-axle and battery segment, primarily due to market demand. Our extensive electrical product portfolio and in-house expertise put us in a unique position to be able to deliver a wide range of propulsion solutions to meet our customers' needs. With that, I will hand the call over to Anna.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you, Olof. Good morning, everyone. Let's now take a look at the highlights of our first quarter 2025 financial result on slide 23.

Q1 2025 closed with consolidated net revenues slightly in excess of EUR 3 billion and net revenues of industrial activities of EUR 2.96 billion, both contracting by approximately 10% year-over-year, mainly due to lower volumes in Europe for truck and PowerTrain and the negative translation effect mainly in Brazil, only partially offset by a positive year-over-year price realization. Financial services net revenues totaled EUR 114 million in the first quarter, down 21.4% compared to prior year. Group consolidated adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 152 million with a 5% margin, and the adjusted EBIT of industrial activities closed at EUR 117 million with a 4% margin, both contracting versus Q1 2024. Net financial expenses amounted to EUR 39 million in this quarter compared to EUR 21 million in Q1 2024, which had been positively affected by hyperinflation accounting impact in Argentina.

Please note that in order to minimize going forward the volatility of our results in the country in consequence of the specific accounting principle, we have decided to establish, starting from January 1, 2025, the U.S. dollar as functional currency, also for our local trucks legal entity, previously reporting in Argentinian pesos. As a result, from this quarter onward, hyperinflation accounting will no longer be applicable in Argentina. Reported income tax expenses were EUR 12 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted effective tax rate of 26%, resulting in a consolidated adjusted net income of EUR 84 million with an adjusted day-duty DPS of EUR 0.31. The adjusted net income attributable to Iveco Group closed in line with the consolidated figure, both down EUR 72 million versus last year.

Moving to our free cash flow performance in the quarter, Q1 2025 closed with a EUR 794 million cash flow absorption, mainly driven by the impact of lower year-over-year sales volumes, which stressed our usual working capital seasonality. Finally, available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit lines, remained solid at EUR 4.7 billion on the 31st of March, including EUR 1.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities. Let's now focus on net revenues of industrial activities on slide 24. As you can see from the chart on the right-hand side of this slide, all regions contracted compared to prior year, excluding South America, which was up 32%, confirming this region's positive exit speed from 2024 into 2025.

Looking at our net revenues evolution by business unit, bus and defense were solidly up versus prior year at around +15% and +31%, respectively, while truck and PowerTrain contracted versus Q1 2024 by -16% and -19%, respectively. More in detail, truck net revenues totaled just short of EUR 2 billion in this quarter as a result of the large expected volumes contraction in Europe in the first months of 2025. Despite a continuously positive price realization in the region, however, fully offset by an adverse year-over-year foreign exchange rate trend in Brazil. Bus net revenues were up, as said, almost 16% in Q1 2025, reaching EUR 478 million, thanks to higher volumes, a better mix resulting from the continuous ramp-up of electric vehicles production and deliveries, and the positive pricing.

Net revenues of defense continued to grow substantially in the period, posting a + 31% versus prior year and reaching EUR 278 million, driven by higher volumes and a positive product mix effect. Finally, PowerTrain net revenues were down 19% year-over-year to EUR 784 million, mainly as a result of the continuously challenging off-road industry performance, with sales to external customers accounting for 42% in this quarter. Turning to slide 25, I'll now briefly comment on the main drivers underlying the year-over-year performance in our adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activities. Volume and mix contributed negatively for EUR 117 million in the period, mainly driven, as said, by lower volumes in Europe for our truck and PowerTrain business units, with lower deliveries of light-duty trucks further negatively affecting the overall truck profitability.

As previously mentioned by Olof, almost one-third of the total negative volume and mix impact in this quarter resulted from a less efficient fixed cost absorption as a consequence of significantly lower production levels compared to prior year, particularly in truck. Net pricing, on the other hand, continued to be positive, confirming our strong commitment to maintaining a diligent pricing discipline also in this market environment. Finally, the year-over-year improvement in SG&A cost of EUR 19 million shows the effectiveness of the implementation of the efficiency actions announced by Olof during our full year 2024 earnings call. Let's now take a look at each industrial business unit adjusted EBIT margin performance in the quarter on slide 26.

Truck closed with a 3% adjusted EBIT margin as a result, as said, of the large expected volumes contraction in Europe, combined with a negative mix linked to lower light-duty trucks deliveries, only partially compensated by solid cost containment actions. Pricing in Europe remained positive in the period, net of the marketing activities required to support the now completed full introduction in the market of the Model Year 2024 product range. Bus Q1 2025 adjusted EBIT margin closed at 5.4%, up 30 basis points versus prior year, thanks to higher volumes, a better mix resulting from the continuous ramp-up of electric vehicles production and deliveries, and a positive pricing. Defense adjusted EBIT margin posted a 260 basis point uplift versus prior year, reaching almost 13% through higher volumes and a positive aftermarket contribution.

Finally, PowerTrain adjusted EBIT margin closed at 5.5% in this first quarter, down 70 basis points compared to prior year due to the severe volume drop in the period, partially compensated by continuous cost management actions. Let's now have a look at the performance of our financial services business unit during the quarter on slide 27. Q1 2025 adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 35 million, with a managed portfolio including unconsolidated JVs of EUR 7.9 billion at the end of the period, of which retail accounted for 43% and wholesale 57%, substantially flat compared to 31st of March 2024. Important to be highlighted here is that the slight increase of 20 basis points in stock of receivables past due by more than 30 days as a percentage of the overall on-book portfolio was entirely a result of a lower wholesale portfolio. Return on assets remained solid at 2.1%.

Moving to our free cash flow and net industrial cash evolution on slide 28. First of all, as you have probably already seen in the press release, starting from this quarter, we have decided to further improve and simplify the representation of our free cash flow build-up. I sincerely hope you will appreciate this revised, more self-explanatory breakdown. In any case, Federico and our investor relations team are always available to provide you with reconciliation versus the previous representation in case needed. Q1 2025 free cash flow absorption was EUR 794 million, largely as a result of lower year-over-year production and sales volumes, which further stressed our usual working capital seasonality. Adjusted EBITDA also contracted versus prior year by EUR 56 million, while financial charges and taxes contributed positively in the period for EUR 23 million. Investment totaled EUR 129 million in Q1 2025, substantially in line with last year.

Moving now to my last slide for today, page 29. Our available liquidity as of 31st of March 2025 stood solidly at EUR 4.7 billion, with EUR 2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents and EUR 1.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities. Looking at our debt maturity profile, the majority of our debt will be maturing from 2027 onwards, and our cash and cash equivalent levels, which totaled EUR 2.5 billion as of 31st of March 2025, continue to more than cover all the cash maturities foreseen in the coming quarters. Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Olof for his final remarks.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thank you very much, Anna. Let's conclude this presentation by looking at both the outlook for the industry and our own financial guidance. I will also provide some key takeaway messages from what you have heard today.

In terms of total industry outlook for the current year, we are reaffirming the preliminary industry outlook that we provided back in February. For light-duty truck, we are forecasting an industry that ranges between flat to down 5% versus full year 2024. With our current visibility, we anticipate it to be skewed more to the lower end of the range. For medium-duty truck, we expect to be slightly down at about 30,000 units, and for heavy-duty truck, between 280,000-290,000 units. In South America, we expect the industry to grow by 10% in light-duty truck and to be up 5% in medium and heavy-duty truck. In the rest of the world, both subsegments are forecasted to be flat or slightly down. Finally, we expect demand for buses to remain flat across the regions.

The next slide has our full year 2025 financial guidance, which, as per our previous guidance, does not reflect any impact from the potential spin-off we announced for our defense business. Our full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance is based on the current industry outlook and our solid order backlogs, together with consistent pricing discipline and a strong focus on cost management. As a result, we are confirming at the consolidated level, group adjusted EBIT at between EUR 980 million and EUR 1,030 million. For the industrial activities, net revenues, including currency effects, to be flat year-over-year, adjusted EBIT from industrial activities at between EUR 850 million and EUR 900 million, and industrial free cash flow to be between EUR 400 million and EUR 450 million. We will continue to sensibly manage costs and our production capacity for trucks in Europe, a market which we expect to progressively increase on a year-over-year basis in the coming quarters.

On slide 33, let me provide the usual takeaway messages from today's earnings call. First, in this quarter, we reset our manufacturing activities and inventories and completed the light commercial vehicle phase-out, phase-in, and model year 2024 throughout our dealer network. This placed the company at the right level and positioned us well for an expected increase in demand during the second half of the year. Secondly, with the effort we made in the first quarter, combined with what's already accomplished in the latter part of last year, we feel comfortable that both our PowerTrain and truck business units are well positioned to leverage on an expected market recovery that we believe will begin during the second half of the year, coupled with a progressive increase in production levels. We also project that our bus and defense businesses will continue to keep the momentum.

Thirdly, we will continue boosting Iveco Group's product position, maintaining our focus on excellence in quality and also strengthening our brand position. Fourth, we are proceeding at pace with the acceleration of our efficiency program and reprioritization of some of our investments, and we fully confirm the expected EUR 150 million in comprehensive savings, CapEx and OpEx for the current year. In conclusion, we will continue to forge new strategic partnerships to strengthen our future. Iveco Group's partnership strategy has been and will continue to be pivotal for the continued achievement of our long-term ambitions. The partnership recently signed by our truck business unit with Stellantis Pro One will offer a unique electric vehicle product lineup covering the entire light-duty truck segment between 2.5 and 7.49 tons.

The partnership with Ford Otosan to design and engineer the next generation of cabins for heavy-duty trucks will result not only in significant savings in investment, but will also produce a new top-line modular cabin family with state-of-the-art technology, far superior to the cabins previously planned. The agreement signed between GATE and DLL is a pivotal milestone in our strategy that will enable GATE to move more efficiently and faster in helping customers gain access to green mobility. Under DLL guardianship, the service will be reinforced and expanded in key European markets. Finally, the contract of order to our defense business unit by the Dutch Ministry of Defense further strengthens an already solid order book and underpins the foundations for years to come.

Before opening up for questions, I'd like to conclude by saying that the first quarter of 2025, we achieved a number of accomplishments, preparing us for the remaining part of the year. Rest assured that we will continue to remain focused on our priorities and our commitment to always go beyond. Thank you.

Federico Donati
Head of Investor Relations, Iveco Group

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we can now open it up for questions. To be mindful of the time, we kindly ask that you all opt on any detailed modeling and accounting question on which you can follow up directly with me and the investor relations team after the call. Tracia, please go ahead.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again.

Once again, please press star one and one to register your question. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The first questions come from the line of Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to touch on three topics, but the questions are fairly quick. The first topic is just on now that you're basically done with the model transition and the phasing out of the old models, can you maybe clarify how much has been the headwind from that in the quarter and shall we see sort of a recovery from that pretty quickly on? That's the first one. Second one was just, can you give us the backlog in defense where it stands right now and just an update on that?

And then the third question, you mentioned that you're looking in parallel at the spin and some of these preliminary interests that you have got. If eventually we were to end up with a sale, how should we think about what you would do with the proceeds from that? What are the priorities for capital allocation post such an event? Thank you.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. I think when it comes to the Model Year 2024 and the introduction, as you know, we concluded that in the heavy-duty segment basically by end of last year. We were clearly sort of communicating to you and to the market that we still had some job done during Q1 in the light-duty. Now, this is done with this time.

We did it in a rather sort of contracting market situation, which meant that we had to do both the sort of transformation or transfer of the model year 22 and 24 at the same time, making sure we are managing the inventory and our own inventories. That is done now. It is behind us. We are having a good level of inventory both internally and by the dealers, and we are now prepared to go ahead. That is behind us. On the model year 24, just as I think was mentioned by Anna as well on the pricing and the pricing discipline, we have been through this rather challenging market condition, very disciplined in the market.

We have, and I have said that a number of times during the Q4 and Q1, a number of marketing activities in order to make sure that we get the vehicles out. That is also behind us now. Basically, we have gone through that transformation with the Model Year 2024 totally now. Now it is just a matter of continuing to develop this, which we believe is a very, very good product into the market going forward.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Hi, Daniela. It is Anna here. On the, I think the second question, if I got it correctly, was the defense backlog, right?

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Correct. Exactly.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

It is right now, let us say right now as of end of 2024, it was well above EUR 4 billion, and we have a target to further increase that backlog going into 2025.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thank you. Sorry.

On the model year, you have also commented the production increase from year-on-year. Have you said how much is the production increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, perhaps, now that you're fully done with the launch?

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

No. Basically, what we have said, and we do that all the time, we are very, very conscious about the production speed in order to meet the market requirements. Sequentially, we are now increasing the speed coming from Q1 into Q2. We have the visibility we have in terms of order backlog, order intake, order backlog, and interest out of the market. We will adapt the production going forward. As we said, I mean, our view into the second half of the year is that we're going to see a sequential pickup of the market.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thank you very much.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Lastly, on the defense, let's say, processes. As you have seen in the press release, right now, as a result of the assessment we launched in February of this year, the board has now formally decided to proceed with the separation of defense via spin. What we will now do is to proceed with all activities required to progress this process, including the finalization of all financial, legal, tax, and social aspects. Obviously, recently, we do have received several preliminary expressions of interest from various strategic players. As you can understand, Daniela, we cannot disclose values nor any other information in relation to this proposal at this point. Once we have progressed on, let's say, both activities, we will obviously promptly inform you, including any potential impact on, let's say, our financials and eventually on the related proceeds and use of those proceeds.

Daniela Costa
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with the next question. The questions come from the line of Monica Bosio from Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.

Monica Bosio
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Yes. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is the ongoing trend in the heavy-duty in Europe. The market share gains is encouraging. Should we expect over the next month a further gain in market share, or do you see as more likely a consolidation of the 9% share for the full year? That is my first question. The second one is still on the heavy-duty. I remind you that at the end of 2024, Anna said that the margins for the heavy-duty were in the low single-digit area. Can you give us any indication for the first quarter? Then my last question is on the defense business.

If I'm not wrong, the value of the contract with the Dutch government has not been announced, but I'm expecting something in the region of EUR 400 million. Am I right? Just flavor from you. Should we expect for this contract margins in line with the division or maybe something better given that there is also the maintenance operations within? Thank you very much.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thank you. On the market share, heavy-duty in Europe, we are, of course, pleased to see that we are gaining market shares coming now with the Model Year 2024 and the acceptance of the vehicle by our customer, both in terms of the fuel efficiency, the TCO, the driver ability, the comfort, and all that. Now, going forward, market shares are very tricky. I mean, fully committed. We have a product that we believe is up there with the absolute best.

We have a good pricing discipline. We are pushing forward with all the different sales activity. What that will result in in terms of market share, we will see. Rest assured that, I mean, we feel very comfortable and comfortable with actually now pushing forward since we have done the introduction. Good work there, I think, and looking forward to see how this develops in the forward. I leave the second question to you on the defense.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Yes. On heavy-duty profitability, it is still also in Q1 around the low single-digit arena, I would say, Monica. Hello there. I would say in line with what I told you end of last year. On the IDV contract, we cannot comment, unfortunately, anything more than what it was in the press release, so I cannot help you on that. I am sorry about that.

Monica Bosio
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Okay. I understand. Okay.

Thank you. Just a follow-up on the efficiency measures. I can imagine that the first quarter is not yet factoring in any efficiency measures. When should we expect a more visible impact from your EUR 150 million program for this year?

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Actually, it is. As we said also when we announced it, it was more back-ended. You will see then gradually this implementation progress in the coming quarters. The first actions are already there because we obviously implemented them starting from the beginning of the year. We are absolutely very well on track on this implementation, and we are very happy with how it is proceeding. We will see more coming in the next quarters, but something is already there.

Monica Bosio
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Okay. Got it. Thank you, Anna. Thank you. Thank you, Olof.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you. Bye-bye.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas. Excellent. I think that question has just been withdrawn. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The next questions come from the line of Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nicolai Kempf
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Yes. Good morning. It's Nicolai from Deutsche Bank. Thank you for taking my question. Two, if I may. The first one would be on your guidance, which looks very back-end launched as of now. Given that book-to-bill is backed both once for almost all segments, would you see that Q2 will already be a material improvement? And my second one, could you just highlight the length of your order book for light commercial vehicles currently?

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Yeah.

On the guidance, as we said when we gave you the guidace, hi Nicolai, by the way, in the beginning of the year, we—what happened? Oh, sorry. I thought the line—sorry, it was broken up. Can you hear me well, Nicolai?

Nicolai Kempf
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Yes. I can still hear you.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Sorry. No, I was saying when we gave the guidance beginning of the year, we said obviously we were expecting, let's say, more softer H1 and then a stronger H2, exactly the reverse of what occurred in 2024. I would not say a material improvement in Q2, but I would say a gradual improvement for sure. H2 would be definitely a stronger semester than the first versus last year. Please, Olof. No, no. In terms of length of order book?

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Yeah.

If I understand the correction, was the LCV you were talking about, right, of light commercial vehicles?

Nicolai Kempf
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Yes. Yeah. Yeah.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

We are talking around seven weeks at the end of March was the order book that gave us pretty good visibility.

Nicolai Kempf
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Got it. Thank you.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas. Excellent. Please ask your question.

Miguel Borrega
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three, and will ask one at a time. First on LCV, orders are now beginning to inflect. How fast will that translated, will be translated into growth of deliveries? I am wondering because obviously you need a higher margin over the next nine months relative to last year to meet the full-year guidance.

It seems that the growth mix will still be geared towards medium and heavy-duty because orders have begun to inflect faster. Your margin will still be dragged overall in trucks. How do you think the mix will evolve throughout the year and the light-duty versus medium-duty mix?

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

I mean, without going into too much of a detail, when we do and we do confirm our guidance, of course, the mix situation and the market situation is an integrated and very important part of that when we confirm the guidance and thereby also looking at the mix in terms of profitability. It is not only the heavy-duty LCV, it is also the mix within the regions. It is the mix within the customer segments. It is a pretty sort of delicate and rather detailed analysis you have to do to get it all together.

That's sort of the overall. As I said, I mean, we are looking at the guidance for the light commercial vehicles. We start to see sequentially, the order intake is picking up, right? We start to see also that small rental fleet coming back to the market. We have to remember that we have had a pre-buy effect from Q1 and Q2 last year, now going on for almost a year. That means that over time here, of course, the market will come back into buying new vehicles again, having sort of been a little bit on the low side for a couple of quarters. That is what we see. The mix that we see forward is confirming our guidance.

Miguel Borrega
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP

Thank you. On the European market share in LCV, 12% this quarter.

I understand the loss of share the last couple of quarters because of the washout of the previous model year. Where is the ambition? Is it to recover back to 14%, or is there a higher number that you look to achieve?

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Let me put it this way. I mean, we are on the heavy segment, as you can see. I mean, we're very well represented there. I think we just need to really confirm and make sure that we stay where we are on that one. On the panel van side, but also the cab over on the lower segment, I think with the Model Year 2024 improvements that we have done and the new functionality, drivability, etc., etc., I definitely think that we have a good opportunity to come in and sort of get market shares, right? That is what we want to do.

Exactly to say how that will pan out, as with the previous question on the heavy-duty side, I think we have a good position to do that. We have a very, very strong market, and we need to continue to do that. If it's going to be 14% or whatever, I don't want to give guidance on that. I feel very comfortable in the product lineup we have, not only in LCV and in the heavy-duty. It's been an enormous work by the organization to get where we are now. A lot of money spent, a lot of marketing being done. Now we're there. Now is the time to start to reap the effect of it. We're going to do that step by step over the coming quarters and the coming years.

Miguel Borrega
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP

Thank you.

Lastly, I wanted to understand the medium and heavy-duty profitability overall. You said slightly profitable. How do margins in Latin America compare to Europe? I ask because if I look at your order intake over the last 12 months, the number of units are not too different between LATAM and Europe. Just wondering how that has impacted your margins in medium and heavy-duty overall. Thank you very much.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

The medium and heavy-duty profitability, as we said several times, has been low single-digit. I think we said that repeatedly also in Q1. We are not much far from that, I would say, area. In terms of profitability between Europe and Latin America, first of all, we do not provide this kind of detail, but I would not speculate on the major differences between the two regions, to be honest. Hello? Miguel? Are you still there?

Miguel Borrega
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP

Thank you.

That was my last question. Thank you very much.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Okay. Sorry. Okay. Thank you.

Miguel Borrega
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP

Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Akshat Kacker from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Akshat Kacker
VP, JP Morgan

Good morning, Olof. Good morning, Anna. Akshat from JP Morgan. I have three questions, please. The first one on tariffs. Could you talk about the impact on the business, if it has impacted you in any way in terms of production costs or supply chain disruptions? Going forward, if you expect any indirect impact on the FPT business from the engines that you export out of Europe into the U.S., please. The second question is on powertrain. You've talked about an upcoming market recovery.

Could you just give us more insights on the volume offtake trends that you're seeing from your off-road customers specifically, and whether you expect volume here to turn positive for the rest of the year? The last one is again on powertrain. Is it possible for you to give us some more details in terms of the P&L contribution of e-powertrain products to this business, probably in terms of revenues and profit contribution? What are the annual level of investments that are going towards this part, please? Thank you.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Let me start with the last one. We work out backwards, if that's okay. When it comes to the, as you can see on the volumes here, right, they are increasing, but they are still very small volumes. I see the whole electrification product portfolio as an investment for the future.

Basically, we now position ourselves from a technology performance point of view, making sure that we have a very competitive and good setup in order to take care of the volumes that we believe will come over the next years. I mean, we see it in city buses already. There is a trend definitely that's going to come in the van and the lower end of it. The profit contribution, I see it more, to be honest, right now as being an investment for the future. I'm really proud where we sit because we have all the strings of the guitar to play, both on the axle side, on the battery pack side, and of course, also on the total vehicle side, including, as I was saying before, with an in-house battery management system. We can really provide that when the market picks up.

Right now, it's small markets. It's something that we do more of an investment. I don't think we separate how much investment we are putting in there. We're doing that very efficiently, as we do with all our investments. The first one on the tariffs, I can say that it is small, very small impacts from the tariffs with the situation that we do have. I'm not even mentioning that. No, I wouldn't say material. Not material at all. Really. Probably as of today, the future of our—as of today. As of today. We cannot talk about the future in that respect. As of today, yeah. You talked about the uptake in orders coming on the off-road. I mean, this is something we are, of course, discussing with our external customers to see how this will develop over the years.

That basically lays the ground for the forecast and the progression of the improved sort of an increased volumes. We should remember that the powertrain business has been suppressed, or should I say, really down for quite some quarters now with big year-over-year declines. Also in this quarter. At some point in time, the destocking comes to an end. At some point in time, we start to see the volumes coming up. Again, we are well positioned with all the breadth of the external customers that we have. Of course, also plus our own vehicle growth planned for coming into the second half of the year.

Akshat Kacker
VP, JP Morgan

Thank you for the details.

Operator

We are now going to take one final question. The last questions come from the line of Martino De Ambroggi from Equita. Please ask your question.

Martino De Ambroggi
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Equita

Thank you. Good morning, everybody.

The first is on the defense. Just to have an idea, I do not know if you are willing to provide it, but what is the portion of free cash flow attributable to the defense for this year, or if not for this year, just to have a rough idea, what is the free cash flow normalized? What was in the past few years? The second is on the spin-off or divestiture. What will you drive your decision? Is it just a matter of valuation? Are you considering to stay with a minority stake in case of divestiture? I do not know if you can elaborate on this. Thank you.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Hi, Martino. Ciao. I will try to—I am not sure if you will be satisfied by the answer, but I will try to answer.

On the free cash flow breakdown by business unit, as you can understand, we cannot share the defense cash flow contribution, not because we do not want to share the defense one specifically, but because otherwise the next question would be, what about the others? As you know, we are disclosing profitability and revenues, but right now we are not disclosing cash flow. We will have to be patient on this. Similarly, on the second one, the board this morning approved the separation of the defense via spin. We will progress on that stream. Still, we have to continue with all the activities for this process. As I said earlier, also to Daniela, we have to finalize still financial aspects. Obviously, in parallel, since we, as we said also earlier, we did receive preliminary expressions of interest from various strategic players.

We obviously want and need to pursue those. Again, we cannot disclose neither names nor values at this point. It is difficult to give you an answer, precise answer to your question right now. As said, we will definitely inform you and keep you updated in case of developments as soon as we are ready to do that.

Martino De Ambroggi
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Equita

Okay, Anna. Thank you. The follow-up is on the for all of, I suppose. Once the military business is spun off or divested, would you be happy to find a business combination for Iveco?

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

The issue we are focusing on, what the board gave us the task to do now, looking and preparing for the spin-off at the same time, investigating and looking at the preliminary interest we have received. That is the full focus now. That is what going forward, nobody knows.

We are fully focused on our business, what we want to do now. That's basically all I can say on that question.

Martino De Ambroggi
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Equita

Thank you.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Federico Donati for any additional or closing remarks.

Federico Donati
Head of Investor Relations, Iveco Group

Thank you very much, everyone. Connected and have a nice day. Thank you.

Olof Persson
CEO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Anna Tanganelli
CFO, Iveco Group

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.

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