SCG Packaging PCL (BKK:SCGP)
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Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 PM ICT
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Jan 28, 2025

Summary

Revenue grew 3% year-on-year to THB 132 billion in 2024, but EBITDA and net profit declined due to higher recycled paper costs and lower export demand, especially to China. Domestic volumes and market share increased, and 2025 is expected to see improved profitability and growth.

Sornnarin Bangkedphol
Head of Investor Relations, SCG Packaging

Happy Chinese New Year to everyone, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. With great pleasure, we welcome you at this First-Year SCGP Analyst Conference. Today, we will cover the performance of the last quarter and the full year of 2024. My name is Sornnarin Bangkedphol from the IR team. I will be your host for this afternoon's session. As usual, we will start with the presentation by our management, and we will have the question session right after. May I introduce and hand over the floor to SCGP CEO, Wichan Jitpukdee and SCGP CFO, Danaidej Ketsuwan. Thank you.

Wichan Jitpukdee
CEO, SCG Packaging

Good afternoon. Happy Lunar New Year. Time flies so fast. We meet again in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024 performance. First of all, on behalf of SCGP management, we would like to thank all analysts who are reporting, continue reporting the SCGP performance and continue to follow our movement in the market. Thank you very much. Even in 2024 as a year, it is quite a challenge for the regional. The good thing is that I have to thank for the sales and marketing staff that push effort on the domestic marketing, and I will have more detail later. For consolidated performance in 2024, the revenue from sales ended at THB 132 billion , which improved 3% year-on-year.

This revenue growth is driven from the higher integrated business chain and also fiber business chain sales volume, especially for the domestic. However, the cost of goods sold on sale increased from previous year, 1% from 82%- 83%, mainly due to the recycled paper. With this increase in the recycled paper cost, that lead to EBITDA reduce 9% year-on-year down to THB 16.1 billion , which have the EBITDA margin at 12%. Based on this, the profit also decreased align with the EBITDA. Also, in addition with the higher financial cost and also the appreciation of the ASEAN money currency, that lead to the profit for the whole year of last year, 2024, THB 3.699 billion or THB 3.7 billion , which is down 30% from previous year, and also ended with the profit margin at 3%.

With that, we see a little bit more in term of the business segmentation for last year for the two main business chain. Start with the integrated business chain. Revenue from sale 99.7 last year, almost THB 100 billion revenue, also increased 3% year-on-year. This is driven by the domestic volume in our product category. However, for the EBITDA, THB 13.2 billion , which is down 8% compared to previous year. The EBITDA margin at 13%. EBITDA mainly declined from the lower packaging paper price and also the higher RCP cost. For the fiber business, which accounts for 19%. Fiber business top line growing to THB 25 billion , which improved 2% compared to the prior year. This is mainly from the foodservice packaging volume and also higher dissolving pulp price together.

In terms of EBITDA of the fiber business, it ended at THB 3.6 billion, which is down 4% year-on-year. Also, EBITDA margin of the fiber business is 14%. The EBITDA and margin dropped mainly from the lower printing and writing paper price. In terms of the business portfolio, in terms of the revenue from sale by business unit, this has not changed much. The figure is also the same. The downstream packaging accounts for 37%, integrated packaging business is 25%, and the rest is the same figure. The most important information, this page in the circle graph in the center, in the middle, that revenue from sale by end destination. This time I start with the export to rest of the world. In 2023, we have export portion 19%. This year we have export portion 17%.

Mainly, the export dropped from the export of the packaging paper to China. Mostly we have to China, 7%, 8%, but this year down to 6% due to the soft demand of the packaging paper in China. In addition to that, we put the export to U.S., we call the direct export. We do export to U.S. 3%, mainly copy paper, also foodservice packaging and also the polymer packaging. These three account for 3% that we call the export from us to U.S., which you might consider maybe the impact in the future, which we will discuss later, the impact from the new president of the U.S. On top of that, in the domestic, in ASEAN, Thai, Indo, Vietnam, and the Philippines, the percentage of paper due by sale has been increased as the domestic growing. Thailand increased 1%- 42%.

Indonesia, 14%, but due to the digital, I think the volume improved. Vietnam improved from 15%- 16%, Philippines from 2%- 3%, and in addition to that, the Europe also 5%- 6%. So we put the efforts a lot for the domestic. From this circle graph, on the right-hand side, also the consumer link has improved from 72%- 75%. That thanks for the sales team and the strategy that we want to transform to downstream business bigger and more. Recap in year 2024, start from the global down to China and down to Southeast Asia, and deep down into the packaging paper business. Start from the global demand, we see the moderate growth in the global. Even the downturn of the inflation, however, the consumer is still very aware on the spending. That made this one very moderate.

In China, we see that soften production and the consumption, despite the Chinese government also put the support on the economic stimulation. So this still made the China in the slow growth affected by our export packaging paper to China. For ASEAN, we see that the ASEAN still growing. The domestic consumption, tourist, service sector are the key to drive the domestic in ASEAN. On top of that, each country, they put the money to stimulate the economy in their country. Deeper down to the packaging paper industry in this region, the still over capacity, meaning the demand and capacity imbalance. So that lead to the regional price reduce. Also on top of that, the RCP recovered paper also price increased in the past year. For SCGP on the right-hand side, we still create the competitiveness, the effectiveness of the challenge and managing of the market.

We continue to grow in ASEAN market. In overall, the sale volume grew 2% both domestic and export. We add more information in next slide. We talk into detail about the growing into the domestic market. The packaging margin of downstream is still healthy. In terms of the RCP, the cost increased while the energy cost and the freight cost are quite stable in the past year. From this, we have three figures that want to inform and want to announce that last year, we have the alternative fuel from 35.9% up to 38% that align with the greenhouse gas reduction plan. We use the RCP portion for the domestic improved from 57%- 61%.

Last but not least, for the energy saving cost, due to the artificial intelligence and AI that we are using and machine learning, we can reduce the energy cost. Last year, THB 140 million . In terms of liquidity management, we also manage working capital. Last year, we did very well and also thanks for those manufacturing and marketing who coordinate together. We reduce the working capital from 84 days down to 78 days. In the future, this year, we will go less down further. Next slide is the information that we want to explore more and want to explain that how the domestic perform. We have to thank for the team effort who are striving to stabilize the performance and to maintain the market share.

This lead to SCGP still a leader and top of the leader in terms of the packaging market in the Southeast Asia to the volume of the domestic. As you know that we have the integrated packaging business and fiber business. For the integrated packaging business on the top left graph, top right graph, and the bottom left graph. That three graph from the packaging paper are fiber packaging and polymer packaging. We see that start from the packaging paper. The packaging paper, the domestic volume has been growing 10% last year compared to the prior year. This is the big effort. Despite the export, we reduce a lot from China. The domestic portion improved from 79%- 84%. This is the lot of effort that we keep our market share. For the fiber packaging, the domestic has been growing 4%.

This due to the expanding the capacity in Thailand and also enhance the cross-selling with strapping. We have the customer abroad base, so we can share the customer and enter to sell more packaging. For polymer packaging on the bottom-left corner, you see here that the domestic and export has been growing at 9%, same figure. This is a huge number for the volume. For the polymer packaging, that strengthen the polymer packaging in Thailand and Vietnam, two countries, and enhance positively in both that we can get the opportunity. In the integrated packaging business, packaging paper, fiber packaging, and polymer packaging, we would say that we grow in the domestic more than the GDP.

This is a huge effort that we grow the company in term of the domestic in ASEAN, which we see that this will compensate the volume of packaging paper that we used to export to China. For the fiber business here, we see the domestic drop by 2%. This is normal because of the printing and writing paper has been dropping. With the effort also, we do export, improve the export more, that export improve at 7%. That the export increase from the foodservice packaging and all those products that maybe we call the sustainable product and degradable and compostable product. Once again, for the integrated packaging business, we grow more than GDP in the last year.

In addition to that, in Indonesia operation, especially fourth quarter and the outlook in the future also, we see that the Q4 EBITDA has been improved from the third quarter of last year. GDP Indonesia roughly 5%, that also solid growth. The majority of growth of India are mainly for the fo od and beverage and the fast moving consumer growth. While the RCP and energy price and trade costs that ally with the ASEAN country. Due to the excess, the packaging paper supply, that the slow demand in Thailand that lead to price pressure among the industry. On top of that, I went to Indonesia quite often in the past year and just went to Indonesia last week. We see that Indonesia infrastructure has been improved a lot in the past two years.

We see that with this infrastructure is being improved and accelerate the growth of the GDP Indonesia. The new present day account for this year is 8% of GDP, that a huge number. For Fajar key performance, with this one, we see that in the fourth quarter, the volume has been improved a lot from the third quarter, almost equal to the first quarter of last year in term of volume. 18% improved QoQ. However, we still maintain the share at the Indonesia of Fajar at 29%-30% in this range. On top of that, the information that APP, their market share improved from 32%- 40% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, the packaging paper, packaging number 3 and number 4, their market share lost nearly 10%, lost to APP.

That's a movement because of they have the difficulty to continue their business due to the loan and debt. That the volume. In term of the EBITDA, we see that the EBITDA negative has been reduced and show the positive sign of the Fajar. We expect EBITDA breakeven will be in the second quarter of this year, as informed last quarter. In term of reduce the interest expenses, we do the financial cost reduction by the capital increase and capital restructure. Danaidej will have more information. That the summary of in each business and also in the Fajar, Indonesia. Now we move to the business segment review in the fourth quarter. May I pass to Danaidej, please.

Danaidej Ketsuwan
CFO, SCG Packaging

Yes. We start by looking at the demand from the various countries. As you can see, in term of the QoQ, we have in many countries, demand is up, and this is consistent with the increase in our sales volume in the domestic market of these countries. For year-on-year also, we see that for the majority of the countries, there is also an improvement. Mainly this is driven by the usual positive contribution from the F&B and FMCG segment, consistent with the end-of-the-year festivals and spending in most of the countries in the region. However, some of the export segment, particularly in the food, canned food, seafood, has passed the peak season, so this one dropped a little bit in the fourth quarter. Consumer discretionary is about a mix.

Some slight increase in the electronics because people are buying this for presents for the end of the year, Christmas, New Year, and so on. There are also other people who are waiting for the spending, especially in Thailand, to wait for the government Easy E-Receipt campaign in this quarter. So this part is quite moderate growth. Translate that into the upstream packaging paper, we see the improvement in the overall demand, and Indonesia included. But the export to China has reduced because of the volume there. It has become weaker. However, the tax rate remain at zero for this segment for the year. Into the fibers business, which is foodservice, is a mix. The increased part is from Asia operation, where the focus is on QSR fast food, which is consistent with the spending of the end of year season.

Whereas in Europe, the demand for single-use foodservice packaging dropped because of the winter season. For pulp, dissolving pulp remained quite a high price, and that is a good thing. For the short fiber pulp, price dropped due to the increase in the capacity globally. So that is the situation in term of market. If we move next to the performance for the quarter, if you see that in term of sale revenue, we stand at THB 31 billion. That is a drop in both year-on-year and QoQ. The QoQ drop is actually mostly from the price factor, because if you look at the volume factor, it is actually an increase in term of QoQ volume. But the price actually dropped. So as you can see, the percent cost of goods sold has increased to this effect. Now, EBITDA stand at THB 2.8 billion.

Okay, it is a drop from both year-on-year and also QoQ. For year-on-year, that is mainly from the increase in cost, particularly in term of key raw material, which is recovered paper, which has increased year-on-year. But QoQ, the recovered paper cost has reduced. So if we talk about QoQ change, the price dropped and cost also dropped. But the price has dropped by more in absolute term. So that is why the margin has contracted in the fourth quarter. Looking at net profits is also a decline because we record the net loss of THB 57 million. That is also in line with EBITDA, but there are additional factors in this. And one is in the one-time adjustment that we have for the recycling business in Europe, and this amount is about THB 260 million which we book in the fourth quarter.

This is a non-recurring item, and it is due to the change in the method that we used to calculate the provision for the purchasing cost and expense. This is to reflect more accurately the cost that is going through the system. That contributed about THB 260 million of loss. Another part that was a change from the third quarter was the additional take-up of the portion from PT Fajar additional shares. Although PT Fajar performance has improved both in term of EBITDA and net profit QoQ. In Q3, we took account for the 30% additional shares for one month, whereas in this fourth quarter, we took for the full quarter. So that PT Fajar loss contribution into our consolidation will be THB 260 million more.

If we look closely in term of the change between the profit from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, that two factor, the one time non-recurring of the recycling business of THB 260 million and the additional PT Fajar of THB 260 million, these two alone is already THB 520 million in term of change, in a negative change. Plus, we have the dissolving pulp operation that we have annual maintenance which has lost contribution by about THB 100 million in term of EBITDA. In total, these three factors almost explain entirely the change from the third quarter.

What that means is, when we are moving to the next quarter, which is this quarter, the first quarter of 2025. If we start from the core profit, let us say if everything else equal, core profit was THB 34 million. We will be able to add the non-recurring one time THB 260 million back. Dissolving pulp is starting to run as usual, so that is another THB 100 million. We expect also the improvement in PT Fajar. So that is altogether the basis for the first quarter profit would likely be, the starting base point would be around THB 500 million and that we can see additional improvement in other areas like volume in Q1, the price which has started to increase in some markets. We believe that the fourth quarter was probably unusually low.

This is the report on the financial for the whole company. Next would be on the integrated packaging business. Revenue is THB 24 billion, so that is a slight increase year-on-year and a slight drop QoQ. In polymer, the revenue is pretty much stable. Basically, there is a pickup in domestic demand but in the export segment was weaker. Also the medical and labware continue to improve. For fiber packaging or the box, the revenue slightly declined due to some of the durable goods demand, in contrast with the other consumption which has improved.

Packaging paper revenue QoQ decreased, and that is because the prices. Volume has increased by about 4%, but price declined by 6%. So that is the reason. If you look at EBITDA, which is about THB 2.8 billion, that is quite similar to the last quarter and in term of margin is also similar. As I mentioned, if we talk about year-on-year, the lower EBITDA would be mostly due to on the cost of packaging paper, which is the RCP cost. But if we look into the QoQ change, the volume is better, the price is lower, and the cost is also lower. But the absolute amount, the change is not in the same proportion, so we have that slight reduction in the margin there.

But anyway, Fajar has improved. Next is on the fibers business. The revenue is THB 5.4 billion. It is a drop both year-on-year and QoQ . If you look at all three segments of fibers, which is foodservice, paper, and pulp, we see revenue actually decrease in all three of them, mainly from the volume factor. Also, paper price also declined during this period. For the pulp, the key one is on the maintenance of the dissolving pulp. Looking at the EBITDA, it was down to about THB 500 million, which is about THB 300 million lower than the last quarter. This can be separated into three about equal amount. The drop of THB 300 million, about THB 100 million is the dissolving pulp, which we has a period downtime for the annual maintenance.

The short fiber, which has a lower selling price, that is also about THB 100 million, and the paper, which is down in both volume and price, about THB 100 million. So the three segment contribute about THB 300 million. As I mentioned, for the dissolving pulp, this should be recovered fully in the first quarter of this year, which is this quarter. So we should see the margin improve going forward. So next on financial review. We have core profit of THB 34 million in the fourth quarter with an FX loss. This is due to the loan derivative and investment, and this is non-operational part. So that takes our net profit down to THB 57 million. For the balance sheet, our net debt at the end of the year is THB 52 billion.

That is an increase from the year end last year, mainly because of the additional acquisition of Fajar, which we use up cash as well as take on additional loan. The total amount now of the loan will be about THB 65 billion and cash of THB 12 billion. The cost of that average is 4.3%, but mainly it is because of the overseas debt, which has a higher interest rate than Thai debt. Anyhow, our rating remain maintained at a stable. Looking into CapEx, we spent last year nearly THB 30 billion. As you can see, most of it, THB 25 billion, is on the growth, which is, majority of it is Fajar acquisition plus the M&A of REM and also other organic expansion. In term of maintenance CapEx and efficiency, ESG, that is about THB 4.3 billion.

So coming into this year, 2025, we expect a CapEx of about THB 13 billion, THB 3 billion-THB 5 billion of maintenance and efficiency CapEx and THB 8 billion-THB 10 billion in term of growth CapEx. Additionally, today, the board has approved the dividend payment of THB 0.55 per share, which is the same as last year. This represent a yield of approximately 3.3% on current price. The reason we are paying the same amount of dividend, despite the lower net profit, is because we have a very good cash flow position. We have very good cash flow with the expect higher EBITDA in this year, 2025. So with a CapEx of about THB 13 billion, so paying the dividend of this amount is actually quite suitable for the current situation. Reflecting also, I believe that the outlook for 2025 is actually better.

Last item from me would be on the update on the ESG and innovation front. On the sustainability rating, we maintain our AAA SET rating, which is the third consecutive year. The same thing with Sustainable1, which is S&P Global, which we are rated at top 1% globally on container and packaging sector for the third consecutive year as well. On the EcoVadis rating, we are upgraded to platinum. All these still shows that we are very committed to our sustainability initiatives. In term of innovation and R&D, we spend roughly 1% of revenue for the past few years, and that has barefoot in term of our achievement. This prize and award of honor reflect the quite cutting-edge innovation that we have from our company for three year in a row.

The last year for the latest one is Eucalyptus Clones, which is emphasized on sustainability as well. These are the updates in term of financial and business. Next will be outlook from Wichan.

Wichan Jitpukdee
CEO, SCG Packaging

Thank you, Danaidej , for the very clear explanation. For the outlook and the key takeaway, we presented last year the progressive forecast for the next five years start from this year. This is how we see deeper for the appropriate forecast in this year, 2025. This means this is the strategic implementation. We summarize in four strategy and concluded with the target that can be measurable. For the profitability enhancement and the transition flow here, of course, we want to transform the business model transformation to be more consumer link. With this, we targeted the EBITDA of this year will be THB 18 billion with the growth CapEx more than THB 8 billion, as Danaidej explained. Second one, in term of the improve of production cost- Energy efficient with AI, as already mentioned here. We use technology and automation.

With this, we are confident that we can find the business opportunity, and include with the cost saving, around THB 600 million this year. For innovation solution customer experience, I want to add customer experience with the marketing excellence. Now we formulate and share all the customer information, and we set the pricing of each business. This will include the solution and service of more than 37% compared to the total sale. In terms of the ESG and circular economy, which we give the important here, because in the future, they might impose the carbon tax here. This year we target that we use alternative fuel to be 93%, and we continue to modify our boiler to use more alternative fuel in our boiler. For the outlook heading toward this year, we see that internal, we see here the expansion.

We provide a growth CapEx more than THB 8 billion here. This one, we see that we go on the end product demand that give the opportunity, especially the new growth healthcare supply, and also the packaging that are close to the consumer. Next one, we see that Indonesia operation is the key. Because any time when we made the analyst conference, more than half that ask about the Indonesia operation. We also give important for this Indonesia operation, especially Fajar. Of course, we want to create the competitive advantage in here. Now the portfolio optimization go along well. We reduce number of SKU that reduce the grade chain and make costs more efficient and make product more optimum. Also we want to find the strategic partnership. This is in two way.

The first way, I mean the customer that use our paper, so we want to engage with them, ensure them that we support them in longer term. Also the end customer who buy the packaging. Frankly speaking, our customer, mainly in Thailand, many of them are multinational company. Multinational company, they have many company in Southeast Asia. So we use this network to expand the packaging in Indonesia. For packaging solution, we also improve on that, and also for the sustainable development goal. The project that have been improved in term of modify the boiler to use biomass more. That's to prepare in case of the government reinforce the carbon tax in the future. So we will not hurt much for that one.

In terms of the outlook of the market, we see that the positive momentum from ASEAN domestic, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and also in Malaysia. We see that a little bit pressure on the export, especially to the U.S. President then come already in the position here, but the executive order that has been signed still in line with his mention. However, the tax still not yet finalized, so we see on that how the impact of this to this China and the Southeast Asia. In terms of the macroeconomy, we see that foreign exchange, interest rate, but interest rate will be the downtrend, while the RCP may be expected to sideway up due to the demand will be picking up. All in all, I just want to summarize that.

I think the fourth quarter of 2024 is the lowest one, and we see the demand is picking up in this first quarter, and hopefully we can maintain this momentum. With the efforts of the sales and marketing team, so we are confident that we can grow in terms of volume and improve the financial improvement start from the first quarter of this year. That all the fourth quarter result and the whole year of 2024.

Sornnarin Bangkedphol
Head of Investor Relations, SCG Packaging

If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact our IR team, and we will address on that. We would like to thanks for all participants today for joining our today virtual conference. We look forward to seeing you again in the next quarter, and today, thank you and have a nice day.