Good morning, everyone. Thanks for attending to this 9 month earnings presentation from Banco Santander. Obviously, as Every quarter, our group CEO, Mr. Alvarez, will address the group performance for the 1st 9 months of this year, followed by our group CFO, Mr. Andrea Cantera, who will address in much more detail the different performance of the business areas, and the CEO will conclude the presentation before jumping into the Q and A session.
So Jose Antonio, please.
Thank you, Sergio. Good morning to everyone. Welcome to the 3rd quarter result presentation. As you know, I will start saying that we are progressing well according to our plans in order to meet our Commitments that we made to you back in April in an environment that for sure is A bit worse than the one we were expecting at that time in an environment that with falling interest rates, slowing markets and High volatility due to geopolitical tensions. It's true that in our main marketing by profit generation, that is Brazil, These things are heading to other direction and probably is one of the few countries in the world in which the growth expected for 2020 is higher than the one we are having today in 2019.
Going into the activity of the quarter, we are progressing Relatively well. In our targets in relation with loyalty, we continue to build loyalty in our customer base. The growth in both in number of customers, digital customers and loyal customers is progressing according to our plans, and this is relating to the volumes, both in loans and deposits, that are behaving well, plus 4%, plus 6%, More so in emerging markets than in mature markets. That's something that we were anticipating to you in the previous quarters. This translation into the results, the statutory profit in the quarter is €501,000,000 impacted by the charge of basically the impairment we've done in UK, the goodwill impairment of around €1,500,000,000 and the PPIs that also impacted U.
K. Excluding this, the recurrent profit generation is in fact, is 4% higher than the previous quarter, euros 2,100,000,000 and 4% more than in the Q3 2018. Underlying profit for the year for the 1st 9 months of the year, north of EUR 6,000,000,000 almost EUR 6,200,000,000 with a behavior that goes according to our expectations. On capital, the capital generation organically is progressing above our guidance to you of 10 basis points per quarter. The last quarter were 19 basis points.
And the accumulated Impact for the whole year has been 48 basis points organic capital generation that we were able to do to offset The impact coming from the regulatory front that has been in the region of 60 basis points or we expect to be in the region of 60 basis points for the whole year. The profitability is around 12%. We are showing significant consistency in this in the return to shareholders. You know already, we announced the dividend that we expect to pay the 1st November, €0.10 per share, With according to our policy of 40%, 50% payout ratio, that is where we pretend to stand in the coming years, The 40%, 50% payout ratio on recurring underlying profit. So going to the regions.
Well, these reflect the 3 regions, Europe, North America and South America, reflect pretty well what is going on in the business. Growth around double digit in emerging markets. Well, quite resilient growth in Europe, percent in loans, 5% in customer funds, although we have some countries like Spain and Portugal, where the deleverage is still going on. And we are having a return on equity above the cost of equity in all the 3 regions, 10% in Europe, 13% in North America and 21% in South America. And well, the profit generation in the regions is close to 20 both in North and South America and minus 4% in Europe, impacted mainly due to the Less revenues less NII impacted significantly, further less revenues from the ALCO performance.
Going to the customers and digital activity, just to remember you the numbers. The growth is significant, individuals, in companies, And we are building loyalty in the the loyalty is now in the region of 30% compared with the number of active customers. So no surprises here. The digital activity, we provide you with a Very internal detailed numbers of accesses and transactions you see in the region 20% to 30%. And this is continued this shows the continuous progress of how the customers operate vis a vis with the bank and also how we are progressing in providing more and more services and products through the digital means That is going to is changing and it's going to keep changing the way we do business, our distribution model and our distribution and operating model.
So going to the P and L. What you see in the P and L is, well, let me to remember you that due The change in accounting in TBR, TBR is the assets the way we account the assets of SCUSA, net interest income And loan loss provisions affected by this net interest income instead of growing at 5% on a like for live base ex TBR should be growing at 4%, while loan loss provision is still at 5%, should be more in the region 2%, 3%, yes? So but aside from that, Quite showing significant progress in net interest income. Net income, the quarter has been good, although we've been in the Seasonal lowering during the summer in Europe, but we are growing faster than we were growing the previous quarter. And the guidance of financial transactions came lower than the previous year due to the FX hedging.
Expenses, well controlled. We will see later on the numbers country by country and region by region. Loan loss provisions, nothing new here, consisting Relatively low provision levels, we are not seeing any sign of deterioration in the most Sensitive portfolios that we match. Well, nothing to add but the extraordinary charges of the quarter That in the quarter, we charged €1,600,000,000 mainly the €1,500,000,000 from U. K.
Goodwill and €100,000,000 from PPI. The others are is just to remember due that the ones we've done in the previous quarter, total in the year, charges extraordinary charges of almost €2,500,000,000 that naturally impact our statutory profits. So looking at the profit, the recurring profit, the underlying attributable profit generation quarter after quarter, We are in the mark of EUR 2,100,000,000. So this quarter, in fact, has been the best in the past 8 quarters And show the resilience of Hagood business to an environment that is, as I mentioned at the beginning, is worse than the one we had in the Previous quarters. Looking at the different lines of the P and L, net interest income, while we are growing in The majority of the markets, although we have pressures, as you may imagine, due to the lower rates in Europe and deleverage mainly in Spain and Portugal and also the less weight of the ALCO portfolios, particularly in Spain.
Net income acceleration, as I mentioned before, in the quarter, well, quarter on quarter improvement mainly due to South America. That continues to show a, particularly in Brazil, a significant capacity to grow revenues, particularly fee income, quarter after quarter. The other revenue, well, you have here The up and downs due to the contributions to the resolution fund and to in the 4th quarter, normally, you have the deposit warranty in Spain. So in the second and the 4th quarter, we have these two impacts. Otherwise, nothing specifically to mention Here.
If you analyze the net interest income, consistent with the growth, mature markets growing 2%, developing markets, 9% consistent with the growth in the volumes. It's true that as a result of lower rates both in Mexico and Brazil, Well, it's impacting the NIM. And NIM mature markets have remained flat year on year, although facing We've been able to offset the reduction in the interest rates and the inability to pass the negative interest rate to deposits with lower deposit costs and also with a relatively stable NIM in the main markets, while in emerging markets, I already mentioned some margin compression due to lower rates. On fee income, good levels of activity across the board. You see the mutual funds, insurance and credit cards are Doing well.
Volumes are progressing well. The fee income, as I mentioned before, in developing markets, particularly South America, growing double digit. Machu markets Falling a bit, what has changed in the quarter. In the previous quarter, CIB was in negative territory. The 3rd quarter was Relatively good for CIB activities and the fee income coming from these activities is flat year compared with the previous year.
That was not the case In the previous quarter. Well, in Wealth Management, the 5% Highs the fact that we are growing double digit in insurance, private banking, while asset management due to the reduction in the average fee, That there is some margin compression in terms of fee. So in the industry, it's affecting the revenue, the fee income coming from asset management, although we are growing very well in volumes. In cost, well, this reflects the efforts, our commitments to reduce EUR 1,000,000,000 cost in Europe. You see the progress we are making there.
Spain, minus 7% U. K, minus 0.8% Portugal, minus 3%. So in negative territory, this is going to be probably the pattern in the coming quarters and years, and probably with some significant acceleration that is going to come from the UK and remain in the same territory, probably in Spain and In Portugal. In all the other markets, some deceleration in Mexico. Remember We were only still growing at 7%, but we come from 11%.
So good cost control all across the board, I will say, overall. So on credit quality, no news here is good news. The cost of credit remains below 1%. NPL ratio keeps falling. And the coverage ratio is while it's holding at approximately the same levels as we had before.
And finally, on capital. [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALTOZ DE SOLAY:] Well, the capital ratio at the end of the quarter is the same than the previous quarter. We generate capital 19 basis points organically, regulatory impacts In the quarter, 17 basis points. Probably, at the end, next quarter, we expect to grow the 11.30 towards figures more in line with the 11.40 percent, 11.50 percent for the end of the year. This is our expectation, but this It still depends on how big are the regulatory impact that we expect to be smaller than the ones we have had in the previous quarters.
So this is our expectation for the end of the year. Keep in mind that we are we don't have here The impact positives and negatives that will come next year that you already know. Finally, well, in terms of the profitability ratios, the return on equity is basically flat. It's around 12%. Tangible net asset value per share is growing 2%, and the underlying return on risk weighted assets is progressing Well, it's 163.
We've been progressing consistently in this ratio. That reflects that we are being much more selective in our capital allocation than we were in the past. And in fact, You will see this in some portfolios in which we are disposing assets in some cases or being underwriting less volumes in assets that are not do not provide a profitability according to our Targets, we are much more demanding on capital allocation than we were in the past. And now I pass the I give the floor to Jose That is going to elaborate on the group on the areas of the group and on the main countries, how the quarter went for those. Jose, floor is yours.
Thank you, Jose Antonio, and good morning, everyone. So after Having reviewed the group, I will now look at the countries, the corporate center and Santander global platform. Starting with geographic diversification, the distribution of the underlying profit was unchanged in the 3rd quarter between Europe and the Americas and developed and developing countries. In terms of underlying attributable profit by markets, It went up in 8 out of our 10 core markets with double digit growth in Mexico, in Brazil, in the U. S.
And Portugal. By segments, retail banking, which is a stable recurring and predictable business, represents the largest contribution to profits. Corporate Banking and Wealth Management are growing faster at double digits, thanks to the benefits derived from being part of the group, both in terms of cost synergies and revenue opportunities. We experienced widespread volume growth in the last 12 months. As Jose Antonio said, loans up 4%, demand deposits up 6% and time deposits up 5%.
We saw very positive trends in mutual funds gaining market share in most of our markets. Launch grew mainly driven by emerging markets, where it was up 10%. And our consumer finance business, Santander Consumer Finance in Europe, was up 7% and Santander Consumer U. S, 5%. Only Spain and Portugal fell as the markets continued to deleverage.
Customer funds rose in all markets, and developing markets grew at double digits. Let me now go through the main countries. Starting with Brazil. Since the end of 2016, interest rates in Brazil have decreased by almost 10 percentage points, which has produced a rapid development of retail banking, while naturally margins have started to suffer. However, the price times The PxQ equation is positive and will likely continue to be so in the coming quarters.
Our bank shows a strong year on year growth in profits and in return on tangible equity, which rose 2 percentage points to 22% due to higher net interest income and net fee income, cost control and the fall in the cost of credit to the lowest level that we've seen in recent years. Our strategy is focused on 3 points: 1st, taking advantage of the growth in retail banking. For example, payroll based lending was up 27% year on year, and we now have 25% market share in auto lending. 2nd, increased banking penetration. We, as you know, have a product, an offering for low income people Call Superdigital, that is doing extremely well.
Fee income in cards was up 11%. GetNet now has more than €1,000,000 point of sale from 500,000 in 2015 and credit card transactions was up 15% year on year and 3, growing in specialized lending, particularly in agrobusiness and micro credits through Prospera. Moreover, we are beginning to launch some of these products and services in other South American countries. In Spain, we successfully completed the technology the technological migration of all of popular branches and customers to the Santander platform With no incident. By the end of the year, we will have closed close to 1200 branches since the acquisition of Banco Popular, which is 70% of Popular's initial branch network, achieving, as you can see in the numbers, sizable cost savings.
We see a pickup in consumer credit, corporates, particularly international business, which is up 11% turnover of credit cards, up 13% and points of sales, which are up 9%. These positive dynamics, though, are not fully reflected in the stock of credit, which was down 6% year on year due to the deleveraging in CIB and in institutional lending and the fact that new mortgages The new mortgage lending is not offsetting current stock maturities yet. Additionally, we disposed of €3,000,000,000 of loans through sales and securitizations in this past Q3. We have strengthened our value proposition this year, reorganizing the insurance business with Aegon and MAPFRE. Underlying profit was 1,200,000,000, 3% more than in 2018.
This growth was mainly due to cost synergies, the improvement in customer spreads and active portfolio management benefiting from the low interest rate environment. As for revenue, net interest income grew 1%, excluding the IFRS 16 impact. Net fee income dropped mainly due to the reduced CIB activity and mutual funds as the sharp increase in balances since December, up €4,000,000,000 did not offset the lower net fee income driven by the increase in funds with a more conservative investment profile. Quarter on quarter profit was 45% higher, favored by the single resolution fund contribution made in the 2nd quarter and lower costs and provisions, which offset the fall in net interest income, lower rates, volumes, growth in portfolios, etcetera net fee income, which was affected by the seasonality of the summer months. Santander Consumer Finance maintained its leadership in consumer finance in Europe with a top 3 position in all markets where it operates.
Its evolution continued to be very positive in a slowing sector. We are gaining market share. Our captive brands continue to gain market share in almost all countries, and this is reflected in the fact that net lending rose 5% year on year with a very good performance in Italy, 13% up France, 9% up and Spain, 6% up compared to the 2% fall in new car sales in Europe. The 1st 9 months underlying attributable profit was close to €1,000,000,000 in line with that of the same period of 2018. Profit before taxes was up 4% due to higher total revenue and costs that rose at a slower pace than business growth.
Compared to the Q2 of 'nineteen, underlying attributable profit was 2% higher due to increased revenue and lower costs, which offset growth in loan loss provisions. We had some portfolio sales in the second quarter, we already talked about that when we presented 2nd quarter earnings. Turning to the U. K. The environment in the U.
K. Continues to be very challenging, uncertainty over Brexit, regulatory changes and tougher competition. In this against this tough backdrop, we increased credit by 2% and customer funds by 3% year on year in constant euros, which was not reflected in the underlying profit, which was down 19% As income remains under pressure due to lower mortgage margins and continued SVR attrition. We have very good news on costs, which reflect savings from transformation programs down 3% in real terms. We expect more positive results from our efficiency program in the U.
K. In the coming quarters. Provisions were higher due to releases in 2018. And as you can see, cost of credit remains very, very low with very low very good credit quality. In the quarter, underlying profit was down 22%, impacted by factors that the factors that I have already mentioned.
Looking ahead, We expect the pressure to remain on interest income as a result of the tough competition and lack of interest rate hikes on the horizon. Costs, as I have mentioned, should reduce further in real terms. Going through the other countries quickly, Let me summarize the main points. Very positive performance in the U. S.
Despite the strong seasonality of Santander Consumer Business, where profits, as you know, are always higher in the first half than in the second half. Lending, leasing and origination volumes remained strong in the year. Underlying profit rose 27% year on year with an adjusted return on tangible equity of 10%. Keep in mind that as Jose Antonio has mentioned, there was an impact from TDR accounting in revenues and loan loss provisions. Excluding this impact, revenues in the U.
S. Would have grown 5% and provisions just 2%, well below volume growth. The impact obviously of this change on profits is negligible. The quarterly evolution was also impacted by seasonality. In Mexico, profit was up 14% year on year, Thanks to the very good performance of customer revenue and loan loss provisions, which more than offset the higher costs.
The cost of credit improved and reached the lowest level we've seen in the past 6 years. The commercial strategy remains focused on improving the distribution model and on driving the digital channels to increase customer loyalty. In volumes, strong growth in payroll, mortgages and credit cards. Funds declined 1% year on year due to management of spreads. In Chile, profits rose 6% year on year with very good results in treasury and ALCO portfolios, cost control and a 9% reduction in loan loss provisions due to the improvement in nonperforming loans and in the cost of credit.
In Portugal, in an environment of deleveraging, our portfolio is stabilizing as the fall in lending to large companies was offset by the rising consumer lending and mortgages. Despite a tough environment, profits are growing at double digits and profitability is increasing. This is basically due to very good performance in net fee income and gains on financial transactions. Costs are also being optimized and cost of credit is 0. The NPL ratio has improved by more than 250 basis points over the last 12 months.
In Poland, year on year evolution is affected by last year's acquisition of Deutsche Bank's retail and SME Business. Credit volumes increased 5% year to date, although customer funds less so due to the active liquidity management. This is beginning to be reflected in a lower cost of deposits. There was substantial growth across the whole P and L year on year. Even excluding the perimeter impact, revenues continue to grow revenue continued to grow strongly, up 9% and costs 3%, which is particularly good performance when you take into account the wage pressures at national level, which were up 7%.
Top line performance did not does not fully reflect is not fully reflected in the underlying profit year on year due to increased deposit guarantee fund and banking tax contributions. In Argentina, since the primary elections in August, We set capital and liquidity management in Argentina as a priority. As of the end of last week, we had close to €1,000,000,000 excess liquidity above the mandated reserves at the Central Bank, which is ample to meet our customer demands in almost any scenario. The bank remains very adequately capitalized. In terms of P and L, we have strong growth across all lines, both in euros as well as without the exchange rate, produced by high inflation and very high interest rates.
As a result and despite a greater monetary adjustment from the high inflation than that in 2018, profits increased. In Uruguay, Peru and Colombia, we saw strong growth in activity, which was reflected in customer revenue and profits. We are launching new initiatives very actively. We launched Prospera, which, as you know, is the microcredit initiative that originated in Brazil, now it's in Uruguay. We have auto finance and infrastructure projects in Colombia, and we and the focus on large corporates in Peru remains.
In the corporate center, Underlying profit was impacted by reduced gains on financial transactions due to the higher cost of exchange rate hedging. Net interest income was hit by the year on year it was hit year on year due to the impact of IFRS 16 and the larger stock of issuances. Costs, on the other hand, declined and continued to reflect the positive effect of the streamlining and simplification measures underway. Let me now finish by looking at Santander Global Platform. In the case of OpenBank, it has a very large customer base, 1,200,000, most of which are active and are increasing their transactions at 32% year on year, which is driving up volumes and profitability.
We have growth rates of 20% or more in payrolls and accounts with direct debits. Strong increase also in the number of active cards and in the card transactions, in this case, up 50% year on year. Cost of deposits has fallen 14 basis points in the quarter, almost to half of what it was 12 months ago. As you know, we are working on expanding OpenBank internationally. We have launched in Germany.
I hope to be in the Netherlands and Portugal in the next few months and Argentina and Mexico by the end of next year. In other services, The rollout continues in line with the schedule that we had announced. In the case of Superdigital, we already have more than 600,000 active users after having been launched in Chile with the same technology that we have in Brazil. It already has 10,000 customers in Chile, and the medium term goal overall is to reach 1,000,000. Power FX, we have requested a license in the U.
K. And European passport. Global Merchant Services continues to develop a single open technological platform in the cloud. With more than 1,000,000 merchants, will be implemented in Mexico first, followed by other Latin American countries in 2020 and Europe in 2021. Global trade services also continue to progress as expected, and the rollout of the first of the initiative will be in the first of 2020.
It is scheduled to be operating in all of the group's countries by the end of next year. As part of its strategy, the Trade Club Alliance was recently launched together with 13 global banks. It offers an innovative digital platform for SMEs by 2022, is expected to cover more than 50% of sorry, 90% of the world's trade corridors and support more than 1,000,000 companies throughout the world. And finally, Noventius has invested more than €100,000,000 in 28 companies with 4 new investments in the last quarter. And with this, I will turn it now back to Jose Antonio for his closing remarks.
Thank you, Jose. Just happy words to finish with some conclusions. I would say that we are progressing towards our commercial and financial goals through an acceleration of digitization in the activities of the bank on the commercial and operational side of the bank improving our the capital allocation we are doing across business segments and clients. Well and we are able to maintain consistency, High consistency of our results in order to continue to offer our shareholders attractive and sustainable returns. We are starting from a strong base.
Our business, both in Europe, where our main focus is simplifying and integrating our structure in order to improving our operating performance as a way to offset the pressure we have on the revenue side that due to the May low or negative interest rates and at the same time, try to keep the low cost upgrade that we have today, although we still have some possibility in some countries. So margin spreads going forward and being able to underwrite [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALTOZ DE TEJADA:] The most attractive business is going to be key in order to obtain a return on capital attractive to our shareholders. In North America, business and profits are growing well In both countries, we are progressing well in terms of volumes. Some margin compression in both countries, due to Mexico and U. S.
Due to lower rates, but still at very good levels. And we have a business that is different than in Europe, where we underwrite significant percentage of the business at fixed rate that provides a higher capacity to match the NIM going forward. In South America, Well, we continue to grow significantly with the uncertainty in Argentina, but Brazil is Chile, Uruguay and the other countries are doing well. And we are starting, as Jose has mentioned to roll out our very successful activities in the region such as payments, auto finance, where we are progress in all the countries, Prospera for financial inclusion and superdigital as a payment system for the low income customers. With Santander global platform, we are progressing in our vision about being an open banking platform that provides services to Very inclusive service to all the society, including companies, individuals, both high income and low income.
And we are progressing well in CIB in our services of trade, in which we are one of the recognized one of the leaders in this field. Well, finally, the capital allocation is key. Going forward, it's Getting more and more important due to the significant differences that we have in profitability among the different segments. You have the track record there. The ROA is growing consistently, and we keep trying to do so, being more demanding or Less keen to underwrite business in some segments, areas that the profitability is lower and going for the capital allocation towards the most profitable customer regions and markets.
Finally, You know that our dividend policy has been fairly consistent. The 40%, 50% payout ratio is maintaining It's maintained, and we pretend to with the proportion of the cash dividend per share being at least that of the last year. We aim to create shareholder value. The TINAP is an important metric for us, although we have some volatility coming from FX in this figure that is getting this year is not that strong due to the relatively stability of the currencies during this year. Finally, I don't want to finish without mentioning Some achievements that we made in other areas like responsible banking.
Well, for our employees, we were Choose 1 of the 25 best companies to work for in the world According to the ranking, the annual ranking of the great place to work, as you know, we are Working on this, we're trying to align the interest of our employees in favor of the interests, aligned with the interests of the shareholders and the society in general. In relation with the society, we were Choose like the top bank in the world in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, choose us as the most sustainable one. It's the first time that we reached this position, although we were Traditionally, very well in this regard. Finally, we signed the Principles of Responsible Banking as one of the founding members, and we joined the collective commitment to climate. Those are The conditions that are important and recognize the work we've done in the previous years In relation with these issues that we put at the center of our strategy since 5 years ago when we announced targets for employees, customers, shareholders and the society in general.
Thank you very much, and we remain open Your questions now.
Thanks, Jose Antonio. We can open the Q and A session now. So please, operators, proceed with the first question.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q and A session starts now. The first question comes from Jose Abad from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning. Thank you very
much for the presentation. I have two questions. The first one On Spain, latest high frequency indicators including labor market data point to significant slowdown, Particularly in household consumption. So I guess the first question is whether do you expect a pickup in cost of risk beyond the 41 bps that you reported in Q3 At some point over the Q4 or maybe 2020? And related to this, whether you are revising on the back your expectations for loan growth in Q4 and 2020 as well?
And if I may, another question on the upcoming stress test to be run by the ABA next year. Santander has been a top performing in previous situations of the test, mostly due to your regional diversification. Do you anticipate any meaningful change in the macro assumption and or in the methodology that may change this next year?
Well, Jose, thank The first one related with the situation in Spain and how this Slowdown in the economy may affect the cost of risk. We are not anticipating at this stage, although we share A view in relation with the macroeconomic situation of the country close to the consensus, We do not anticipate at this level a material change of the cost of risk, and we are not seeing any signs of deterioration in the cost of risk with the figures that we have in mind based on consensus. In relation with loan growth, I will split I will be I would like to elaborate a bit more here. As you can see in our numbers in well, for several years, and I've been quite open on this, we've been more selective In capital allocation, and we were although we are keen to keep underwriting Loans in some segments, we are not we are reducing our activity or we reduce the size of our loan booking, Institutional lending in CIB kind of activities due to mainly to profitability and return on risk weighted assets Basis, yes. Overall, the loan growth, we continue to see relatively good dynamics In consumer related lending, although the growth now is lower than it was in the Q1.
On SMEs, we continue to see consistent growth. While in mortgages, The market is the front book is falling significantly compared with the previous year. I'm not in a position to tell you how much there will be is due to the change in the procedures to underwrite a mortgage today that are much more bureaucratic now than they were before in the first two quarters, But we are seeing less activity in the mortgage front, while in the CIB and institutional lending, unless we see changes in the underwriting standards, namely NIM. We continue to be selective in the way we use capital there. Overall, probably we should think in a kind of Flat is slightly down overall portfolio, probably with some growth in consumer related activities, Decreasing in mortgages, medium sized companies probably growing a little bit and CIB and institutions depending on How the spreads come are in the market.
The second question is in the stress test. I don't know, Jose, if you want to elaborate on this.
Has not the methodology, as you know, has not been published. It has is expected to be published by the EBA over the next couple of weeks. And but at this stage, we don't have Any indication of what type of macro assumptions that might be included in
this case. Thanks, Jose. Next question please.
Thank you. The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Two questions. First of all, on capital, Jose Antonio, you mentioned that there'll be more capital headwinds Next year, can you just walk us through what you expect in Q4 And also what is remaining for 2020? Because I'm not sure I didn't have in mind there was anything material other than the Allianz Charge, which is not regulatory, but can you walk us through that? And the second question on the UK.
Jose, you said there's more to come on costs in the coming quarters. If I look at the UK subsidiary, A lot of the restructuring that's happened this year, I think up to 7% of the workforce was in some shape or form restructured or involved in restructuring and you've cut 20% of the branches or in the process of doing it. I see the headcount is trying to come down materially in Q3. But if I think about that 7%, should we expect costs to be down 7% next year Or something in that order of magnitude in the UK? Thank you.
Rajon with your first question, capital and well, The figures, it's difficult to put a when the regulatory impacts come in any specific quarter. There is Significant uncertainty there may change from 1 quarter to another. But let me to share with you [SPEAKER ANASTASIA DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY DE LAURY:] What we already know and to discuss a little bit the regulatory impact overall. What remains to be executed now is Allianz that we already agree, is the custody business that we disposed in the Q1. It's also Puerto Rico that we announced a couple of weeks ago.
So those are the main impact that we already know. In relation with regulatory, And we do expect less in the 4th quarter than we have had in the 3rd quarter, but This is highly uncertain. But overall, between 2019 2020, and this is probably something that we can be more accurate on this. We expect not 100 basis points, but probably in the region of maybe 80, 90 basis points overall regulatory impact, of which probably 60 or more come this year. This is a figure that Probably is pretty accurate of our expectations today.
When they're going to come, difficult to say, yes? So but For sure, what we do not expect in 2020's impact as big as the one we have had in 2019 is going to be, Based on our expectations, significantly or much lower than the one we have had this year. The second The cost in UK, I mentioned that we are starting to see the fair signs of cost reduction. Costs are in negative territory for next year. We expect a figure mid single digit, down for the UK.
Well, overall, in the our plan for cost reduction in Europe, the EUR 1,000,000,000 we committed In costs, approximately half of this should come from the U. K. Starting this year but intensifying next year.
Thanks Alvaro. Next question please.
Thank you. The next question comes from Sophie Petesen from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Here is Sophie from JPMorgan. So I wanted to ask one question on kind of Sends and divestments. How should we think about this going forward?
You recently announced Puerto Rico, Joso Ditat in Mexico. How should we think about potential kind of more M and A or more divestments? What's your view here? And then could you update us on the Basel IV impact that you expect on capital? And also, do you have any plans of changing your hedging strategy, which could potentially have a positive impact on your capital generation per year?
Thank you.
Okay. The first one, the capital allocation, I mentioned several times On the during the presentation, what we are doing here is being much more granular than we were in the past. So we already have an analysis of not only business, we have an analysis country by country, portfolio by portfolio, and we have a better view where the profitability meets our targets. And after that, if these profitability is due to short term reasons or long term reasons in order take appropriate decisions based on this. I mentioned during the presentation some activities that in which we are reducing our activity due to Capital allocation reasons, and we continue to do so by segments.
So our segments that The profitability may be allowed due to nonstructural reasons in which we keep going on because we want to protect. At the same time, we need to combine the franchise value with the short term profitability. This is critical, and this is probably The main task we have in our table to take appropriate decisions when the profitability is low due to Non structural reasons of when the profitability is low due to structural reasons, and we are taking appropriate decisions based on this. You see the result of all of this that is very granular and the finance division is heading this offer in our return on risk weighted assets, where We are growing consistently, and we want to keep growing return on risk weighted assets in a consistent way. This is our approach on capital.
On Basel IV, well, probably Jose can elaborate on the Basel IV potential impact and our Strategy, hedging strategy that is very well known by you, but has some relationship with this. Jose already elaborated in previous quarters, but you can clarify.
Again, the puzzle for impact, as you know, we have no impact at all Coming from the output floor, most of the impact would come from operational capital, capital from operational losses. The methodology to calculate that has not been defined yet. So it is uncertain in our case what the impact could be. But you could we could use a sort of 100 basis point figure as the potential impact of Basel IV in total. However, obviously, once Basel IV is in place, we would see a convergence of capital ratios amongst all the major banks in Europe towards what we see in the American banks, which is around, say, 11% to 11% wouldn't make any sense to after Basel IV to keep capital levels Above or at 12%.
You don't see that on average amongst the largest American banks. And Basel IV basically means a convergence towards Well, the American banks are today, so I would expect to see capital levels in Europe post Basel IV moving around 11, 11, 50, which is what makes sense. In terms of hedging, we continue to hedge the excess capital. Having said that, obviously, lower rates in Brazil, lower rates in Mexico means that the cost of hedging is significantly lower than it used to have. 3 years ago, the cost of hedging was around €1,200,000,000 a year.
As interest rates come down, the cost of hedging comes down, as I said, very significantly. And the strategy is to continue to hedge the excess capital because from a capital treatment perspective, it's efficient.
Thanks, Sophie. Next question, please.
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrea Unfloeta from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on Spain, where core revenue trends We're very weak. You've explained what happened on the with the loan portfolio, but your deposits also declined by EUR 6,000,000,000 Or €4,000,000,000 if I take into account increase in mutual funds.
Are you losing customers? What should we expect there? The other question is on Mexico. If I look at the Mexican pesos numbers, you have loan declines in the quarter, but NII is growing despite customer spread having So if you could explain what's happening there? And lastly and very quickly in the U.
S, if you Could give us some clarity on the cost line, which increased by 4% quarter on quarter?
Okay. Starting with the first question, core revenue trends in Spain. Well, Well, I mentioned before the core revenues, when you look at the yield on loans, cost of deposits, we are relatively flat Quarter on quarter, pretty consistent. If you compare with 2 years ago, we increased a little bit. So When it comes to volumes, Jose already mentioned that we saw a portfolio of €3,000,000,000 in the quarter.
And also, we are being much more selective when you see the trends in our institutional and CIB books. The reduction in volumes is significant. It's, as I mentioned before, A combination of a capital allocation and the prevailing spreads on the markets. We are now losing customers. Quite the opposite, if you see the deposits, We are growing faster than the marketing deposits, and we are gaining share in mutual funds.
Of the mutual funds, the average fee It's going down due to the impact of the ETFs having in the industry. In Mexico, well, we are growing accordingly with there is some slowdown in the growth, [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] Accordingly, with the economic situation in the country, the country, the growth has been around 0 the last two quarters, And we are reducing our pace of growth according with the macro situation in the country. When you mentioned NII is growing, Well, there is no customer related revenues, NII that is growing In the quarter, it's a not a big business in Mexico, but it's growing and is what explain what you said That we are growing NII, although we have a lower spreads in Lower yields and loans minus cost of deposits. In UK, the 4% quarter on quarter U. S, 4% growth in cost quarter on quarter.
Well, you cannot take this as a Probably some impact specifically in the quarter without I don't know if you have you want to elaborate on this. Year on year is 2.8, and probably we're going to depends on how much we grow the business, particularly in the car dealers. This has to do a lot with Our originations in Scusa in 2019 compared with 2018 grew significantly. And as a result of this, the fees paid to the car dealers Going up significantly. This is the only reason I have to see the cost growing quarter on quarter along with maybe some marketing efforts, but the main one is related with the volume of originations in Scusa.
Thank you, Andrea. Next question.
Thank you. The next question comes from Marta Cesare Romero from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I've got a follow a couple of Follow ups in Spain. The first one is on your cost of deposits, you're still paying 13 basis points. Your peers are around 3. Are you introducing changes into your commercial offer?
Are you tweaking your 1 to 3 account? Where do you see the cost of deposits next year? Also on NPLs, the workout in Spain, your NPL ratio is still high, above 7%. Your coverage is coming down to 40. Do you think you have the right coverage to evacuate NPLs faster?
What's your strategy? Are you planning more wholesale NPL disposals? So do you think that guidance of 30 to 40 basis points cost of risk is sustainable? Or we could see An increase on one off cleanups? And just quickly, sorry, on your defined Pension plans.
Have you updated the actuarial assumptions this quarter? What's the size now of your pension liabilities? And what's the discount rate you're applying there? And if you expect any further negative adjustments in Q4? Thank you.
First question, deposit cost. Well, we said we're going to keep updating Our of commercial offers to the prevailing rates in the market, we still have some room to reduce deposit cost, higher than our competitors, and we will do so in the At the appropriate time. So we have this I tend to see this as a positive visavis with the others because we can reduce maybe 10 basis points of deposit costs, 8 basis points compared to today relatively soon. NPLs, our NPLs are higher than the others. We were the lowest in the market before Popular as a result of Popular integration with very high NPL ratio.
We went to the 7% that you mentioned with a, I think, an appropriate coverage. It cannot be the other way around. And we are managing actively our both all the nonproductive assets included, including NPLs. And we continue to do so. We don't have an operation that I can share with you on the table, but Be sure that we continue to manage activities.
We do not I do not expect a significant change in the cost of risk And I do not expect any charge in the Q4. In the actuarial pension plan, I am not Javier, at this point, I don't know, Jose, you know the issue?
Yes, yes. The update Of these plans usually takes place in the Q4, so we will make the adjustment in the Q4. And still, we have to run the models, but I would expect the a negative capital impact of around 3 or 4 basis points due to this in the Q4. Having said that, you have to take into account that over long periods of time, obviously, The available for sale portfolio and the so that the ALCO portfolio and the pension liabilities hedge each other Over long periods of time, although in one particular quarter, one adjustment might take place and on the other side, it might take place the next quarter. But again, in this particular case, we will do it in the Q4, and it will be around 3 or 4 basis points of capital.
Thank you. The next question comes from Carlos Cobo from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. I'd like to ask a couple of questions And ask you to please repeat the explanation on the NII in Mexico, which I kind of missed. So first one on Brazil. Could you explain the performance of NII, which seems to be following The volume momentum, but we've seen some kind of 35 basis point compression in the customer spread.
If I'm not wrong, I would like to understand whether there's been a higher contribution from ALCO from securities. The second one, if you could Recap a little bit the whole cost saving story in Europe. You said €1,000,000,000 net reduction, Which already factored in the EUR 750,000,000 savings in Popular, some cost inflation, so net net EUR 1,000,000,000 down The cost base of the European division. I think I understood that today you said half of the savings should come from the U. K.
And I'd like you to elaborate, if possible, on the other half and whether you see any material room to cut cost Santander Consumer Finance, which keeps growing. And I mean, I'd like to understand where should we expect the other half and which measures You are thinking about.
To clarify NII in Mexico, I said your colleague asked why if there is a Lower yielding loans and higher cost of deposits, the NII was growing. And I said This is due this quarter to non customer business. That was the question that your colleague made before. The second question is about Brazil, where you address pretty much the same issue. You say comparing the loans, if I understood well with the Deposit cost is a reduction of, you mentioned, 35 basis points.
Well, very likely We continue to have in Brazil, a, some net interest margin compression Coming in some cases by regulatory changes in some high yield products like the What they call personal check that is kind of overdrafts in Brazil or may affect credit cards, but it's reasonable to expect some margin compression coming in Brazil that we expect to offset these revenues with a good growth in free income And also developing new business that we are already developing, you see new initiatives in Brazil. On top of the traditional payments initiative, we're gaining market share, significant market share through Getnet. We launched several initiatives in insurance sector, Superdigital that Jose already comment. We launched already initiatives In the asset management space, and we continue to launch initiatives in order to offset that What is going to come for sure that is some margin compression. Difficult to predict when because some of these come from the regulatory front.
But We factor into our numbers, into our expectations that this is going to come in over time. Cost savings story in Europe. Well, we announced in the our Investor Day back in April €1,000,000,000 nominal cost reduction in Europe. We announced this in April. So if I understood you well, you are counting the 750 popular.
All of them are not there because some of them were already produced before we in this Investor Day. That means that taking our numbers at the end of 2018, we Expect in the medium term €8,100,000,000 down. Round numbers is the volume from €11,000,000,000 to €10,000,000,000 Yes? So and this includes Naturally, all the business in Europe, namely UK, Spain, consumer finance, Portugal and Poland. For from areas in which we plan to reduce costs, half of this will come From IT and operations, sorry for that.
In some cases, because We plan to share services, the data centers, the use of the cloud and change the operations in This is going to provide half of the savings. Another EUR 200,000,000 will come from What we call shared services, that means that we're going to share services across Europe, different kind of services and the remaining will come from the traditional integration that is still going on in Poland, in Popular and in other markets like Portugal. So this is the EUR 1,000,000,000. You I already mentioned that half of this will come from the U. K.
The other significant part will come from Spain. Consumer Finance participate on this only in the piece of shared services. In the when shared services means risk, means operations, means accounting, means finance, means legal, means all the services, yes? So those are these are the where these those savings will come according to our plans.
Thanks, Carlos. Next question?
Thank you. The next question comes from Francisco Rickel from Alantra Equities. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Just wanted to ask a bit more about the U. K. Business after the write down of the goodwill. And You mentioned before the plan for them cost cutting, but I wonder if you can elaborate more also on the revenue outlook.
You anticipate more pressure ahead. You can update on the SBR attrition and competition dynamics in terms of front book and back book prices. And then overall, if you can share with us Also for the U. K, how have you changed your business plan? And you are currently delivering 7%, 8% ROE In the Q3 versus 9.11, in your strategic plan, if you can please update on this on the financial targets that you are now considering after the And what cost of resource are you considering under the new plan?
[SPEAKER JOSE
ANTONIO ALVAREZ ALVAREZ:] Okay. Let me to elaborate a lot on the UK business, our vision of the market. Our revenue outlook, The main probably item that is ahead of us is the whole overdraft issue that is going to change The revenues coming from overdrafts that also is going to change the very nature of the P and L because We're going to lose significant amount of fees. At the same time, we're going to get some of this being offset by higher NII due to the overdraft issue. This is one off, let's call it that way.
When I go to the business, the front book dynamics, the market is not that is not in bad shape today. The front book is coming at Addition margins, while the back book will still suffer a slowing down SBR attrition, but it continues to be there. So overall, probably, we're going to the net interest income, [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] Well, it's going to be holding up with all the things I mentioned, the overdraft and all these things, while the fees will still see some pressure. But this is only related with the mortgages. In other business, we expect to show growth.
We expect to show some growth in In corporates, we expect to show some growth in insurance, private banking and the wealth, what we call internally the Wealth Management business. And asset management, we expect to generate new sources of growth there. Overall, with this cost cutting that I mentioned before, Along with the revenue measures and with the situation of the mortgage book, we remain confident that we're going to achieve in the medium term The cost of equity that we're going to go back to the region of 9%, 10% return on equity that we announced in our Investor Day. This is the overall assessment of the situation. That Was the one we use for the impairment we don't naturally in the goodwill in the UK.
Thanks, Paco. Next question?
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. A question on capital with a bit more detail than on the UK. Your quarterly run rate of organic capital generation is well ahead Of your 10 basis points quarterly guidance, can you please detail how much is from balance sheet and model optimization this year? And do you stick to the 10 basis points guidance going forward? What contingencies do you have against these new regulatory hurdles that you just It's closed for 2020.
And were these unexpected? And are they from TRIM? Secondly, on UK, Do you confirm your interest to grow further also inorganically in the UK? And if so, what would be of interest to you? And what would be the rationale?
On capital, probably, Jose, you can elaborate this, the evolution of the figures this year And how the TRIM has worked for us? How much come from the models? You can elaborate on this, yes?
Okay. So this year, remember that we have around 20 basis points coming from IFRS 9 and IFRS 16. And the rest is basically TRIM. TRIM, we would expect to have this year between 20 to 30 basis points and another 10 to 20 or so would come from The application of Santander models to popular portfolios. As Jose Antonio said, it's very difficult to estimate when Some of these impacts will come, particularly with regards to the TRIMs.
So we would expect some to come in the 4th quarter, some to be delayed to next year, and that's the overall sort of 80 basis points figure that Jose Antonio mentioned. When we look at the organic growth when we look at organic, which is basically the Natural risk weighted asset growth and its capital consumption and the profitability of the business, that's what generates more or less 40 basis points a year, roughly 10 basis points a quarter. Quarter on quarter, you might see some differences because of securitizations because of re sharing agreements with, for instance, multilateral agencies, etcetera. The models really don't have optimization of models really don't have a meaningful impact On the capital generation, we wouldn't expect that to be the case going forward.
In relation with inorganic growth, potential inorganic growth in U. K, we don't have in U. K. A different policy than the one we have in our core markets. We've been pretty clear on this.
In our core markets, we remain open for opportunities [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] If those appear, I will analyze in anything. We are not, in this case, in the UK. But our policy, as I said, is no different from other core markets for us.
Thanks, Andrea. Now last question, please.
Thank you. The next question comes from Ignacio Cereza from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. A couple of Quick ones for me. You can help us understand a little bit better the run rate in the U.
S. Business. I mean, obviously, there's 3 different businesses there, The usual seasonality in Escusa. So from the probably EUR 750,000,000 EUR 800,000,000 profit this year, how do you think that number can evolve in the future? And then the second one quicker, if you have taken or planning to take any charges for the FX mortgage situation in Poland?
[SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] Well, the first one, as you rightly mentioned, is we have 3 business there. We Have a positive outlook for both Scusa and the private banking business, CIB that is based in the broker dealer and the newer branch that are reported under the U. S. Umbrella. So all these parties, we have a positive outlook.
We are growing well, and we expect to continue to grow well. The negative impact will come from lower rates due to the deposits of SBNA. That is the negative impact. Overall, we remain Positive on the development of our U. S.
Business, and we expect to continue to deliver significant growth in the business. [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALTOZ DE TEJADA:] Remember that we are still work in progress. Our return tangible equity to achieve our targets, and we remain committed with the targets we established in Investor Day. So this is our view on this. [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] Charges for FX mortgages in Poland, let me to if I remember well, the total mortgages FX Swiss franc mortgages in Poland is €2,600,000,000 in our books.
€2,000,000,000 are in the books of the bank, €600,000,000 Approx are in the books of the consumer finance company. As you know, this is a case by case. And given The origin of these mortgages, look, we have several different situations. 1, the mortgages that come from VSAT And the consumer finance and the others that come from KBC, as I said, this is case by case. Do I expect [SPEAKER ANASTASIA ALVAREZ DE SOTO:] Significant charges at this stage, no.
But if it were the case, we need to go Probably our portfolio is worth to mention that we have 3 portfolios that may have different outcomes depending if they decide to go to the courts In case by case, but we don't expect immaterial charge at this stage. Naturally, we have numbers, the potential impact here and there, but you can do on your own. But we don't expect immaterial charge for this.
Okay. We need to leave it here. So thanks, everyone, and obviously, the IR team is at your disposal for any follow-up. Thank you.