Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALSEA)
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Apr 30, 2026, 1:59 PM CST
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Earnings Call: Q3 2025

Oct 23, 2025

Gerardo Lozoya
Head of Investor Relations, Alsea

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Alsea's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Video Conference. My name is Gerardo Lozoya, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs. Today you will hear from our Chief Executive Officer Christian Gurría and Federico Rodríguez, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we continue, a friendly reminder that some of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements based on our current view of our business and that future results may differ materially from these statements. Today's call should be considered in conjunction.

With disclaimers in our earnings release and. Our most recent Bolsa Mexicana de Valores report. The company is not obliged to update or revise any such forward looking statements. Please note that unless specified otherwise, the earnings numbers referred to are based on the pre- IFRS 16 standards. I will now hand it over to Christian for his initial remarks. Please go ahead. Chris.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Thank you Gerardo. Good morning everyone and thank you for being with us today. Thank you. Today I'll provide an overview of our third quarter results covering our financial earnings, regional highlights and key brand developments. I will also highlight our progress on digital transformation, ESG initiatives and expansion strategy. Federico, our CFO will follow me with an analysis of our results including revisions to our 2025 guidance.

Before we turn to the quarterly results, I want to remind everyone of the continued focus on our strategic priorities that will guide us moving forward.

As we mentioned last quarter, our first priority is to continue driving disciplined organic growth. We remain focused on expansion and innovation to drive same store sales growth, prioritizing traffic over price increases. We will also improve our customer experience and advance our digital capabilities. In addition, we will continue rolling out successful commercial campaigns such as Menú del Día from Vips in Mexico and Spain, Tres Para Mí or 3 For Me in Chili's in Mexico, Paradiso Italiano with Italianni's in Mexico and Gourmet Burgers from Foster's Hollywood among other initiatives which would have consistently improved our product offering and reflect our commitment on innovation. Our second priority is to optimize our brand portfolio. We will prioritize return on investment by ensuring that each brand and store format is aligned with the needs of each regional market.

Also, scalability and growth across all brands remain a core focus to unlock their full potential. We are also addressing and analyzing potential divestments on non-core assets to concentrate on the business with the greatest strategic and financial value. Our third priority is to enhance profitability. More value is being generated in our existing stores portfolio through consistent operational improvements by leveraging the strength of what we call high-impact operational talent. Organic growth is supported by strategic new store openings and the remodeling of key locations. As mentioned, two stores are being remodeled for every opening as refreshing. The existing base delivers faster and more efficient stores returns on capital.

Finally, our fourth priority consists on discipline and strategic capital allocation. We will prioritize growth and productivity initiatives with clear return thresholds. Also, vertical integration and long-term sustainability continue to be central to our strategy. Our CapEx plan is being optimized, adjusting long-term investments to become even more efficient and ensuring every peso invested aligns with our capital allocation priorities as well as different G&A efficiencies that we have been consolidating and working through the year. Now I'll provide an overview of our quarterly performance including our financial results, regional highlights and key brand developments along with updates on our digital advancement, ESG initiatives and expansion strategy.

In the third quarter we reported a 5.7% year-over-year increase in total sales reaching MXN 21 billion or a 6.7% increase. Excluding foreign exchange effects, same store sales grew by 4.1%. EBITDA increased 1.8% in the third quarter reaching MXN 2.9 billion with a margin of 13.7%, decreasing by 50 basis points year-over-year. Regarding brand performance, during the third quarter, Starbucks Alsea same store sales increased by 3.9% for Starbucks Mexico, same store sales grew by 3.3% demonstrating solid in store performance backed by our loyal customer base. For Starbucks Europe, same store sales increased by 1.6% reflecting a challenging environment in France offset by continued strong momentum in Spain driven by effective commercial initiatives.

Given the strong results in Spain and the importance of the brand in the country, we are very excited about the latest opening of our flagship store in the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Starbucks Bernabéu. Finally, in South America, the same store sales rose 9.6% driven primarily by Argentina. Excluding Argentina, same store sales declined 1.3%. Nonetheless, there is a sequential improvement in Chile despite lower traffic. Domino's Pizza Alsea posted 2.6% increase in same store sales in Mexico. Domino's same store sales increased 1.6% driven by our continued efforts in product innovation. In Spain, same store sales increased by 2.9% reflecting the ongoing effective promotional efforts and positive customer response to product innovation. In Colombia, Domino's delivered strong results. Same store sales increased by 9.1% supported by successful marketing initiatives. Burger King Alsea same store sales excluding Argentina decreased 1.4%.

In Mexico, Burger King reported a decrease in same store sales of 1.7%. This was driven by a shift of mix toward low price and discount items combined with a decrease in premium innovation and digital coupon. The full service restaurant segment delivered a 4% same store sales growth. This segment remains strong and resilient, supported by marketing campaigns that enhance our product offering and demonstrates our commitment to innovation. Full service restaurants in Mexico increased by 5.3% with most brands growing at mid single digit pace with Chili's and Italianni's. While Chili's and Italianni's stood out by achieving high single digit growth, the performance was driven by the strength of our value product, menu offering, product innovation and launches. Same store sales for full service restaurant in Spain grew 2.4% with Foster's Hollywood and Ginos delivering solid growth of 5.5% and 4% respectively.

We are focusing on introducing new and premium products to attract new guests, capitalize on existing traffic and strength, strengthening our customer loyalty.

Our global expansion strategy remains focused on prioritizing quality over quantity, targeting the most profitable opportunities across our key markets. We remain committed to delivering a strong value to our customers, maintaining our pricing strategy and customer loyalty through our resilient brand offering.

In the third quarter we opened 46 new stores, 35 corporate units and 11 franchisees with an emphasis on high traffic and high potential locations. We expect the pace of openings to pick up on the fourth quarter to meet our full year goal for net stores. This approach reflects our commitment to long-term brand positioning and disciplined strategic growth through flagship developments and selective market expansion. Given the profitability and payback of store remodeling such as increased customer satisfaction and higher sales, we will continue prioritizing a refresh and modernized look across all our locations. Our digital platforms continue to be key drivers of growth. By the end of the quarter, loyalty sales increased 7.9% reaching MXN 5.1 billion representing 24.6 million orders and contributing 26.1% of total sales. We also surpassed 8 million active users across our loyalty programs, confirming the strength of our digital engagement.

Additionally, we served nearly 33.6 million digital orders in the quarter totaling MXN 7.3 billion, which represents 37.4% of our total savings.

This quarter, we continue to strengthen our sustainability model by aligning our purpose with every aspect of our operations. As part of this effort, we made significant strides towards reducing CO2 emissions, installing over 215 solar panels in Europe and installing 159 kW per hour of power in Europe, in Spain, in Mexico. Starbucks served over one million beverages in reusable cups and granted 3.9 million, sorry, 3.2 disposable cups. As part of our efforts to reduce waste, we also continue to strengthen our social impact through Fundación Alsea and Movimiento Va Por Mi Cuenta, supporting vulnerable communities and driving positive changes. As we launch new fundraising campaign, we expect to surpass previous year's results, reinforcing our long-term commitment to responsible purpose-driven growth. Let me now turn it over to Federico, our CFO, who will provide further insight and financial performance. Thank you.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you Christian. Good morning everyone. During the quarter the sales increased by 5.7% supported by the brand resilience and a strong performance in Mexico, Spain and Colombia. Excluding foreign exchange effects, sales increased 6.7%. In the third quarter, sales in Mexico were up 7.5% to MXN 11.5 billion. In Europe sales increased by 8.2% to MXN 6.5 billion while in euro terms sales increased by 3.8%. Finally, South America sales fell 4.7% to MXN 3.1 billion. The EBITDA increased by 1.8% with a margin contraction of 50 basis points, mainly due to a loss of operating leverage given the lower consumer environment in the month of September. These impacts were partially offset by the resilience of the brands across most regions, disciplined revenue management and improved SG&A efficiency.

In this context, we chose to limit price increases to protect traffic and sustain brand competitiveness amid consumer demand slowdown. Sorry. In Mexico, adjusted EBITDA remained flat as there was lower operating leverage given the softer consumer environment in the month of September. In Europe, adjusted EBITDA increased by 6.2% year-over-year, primarily due to an increase in same store sales of 2.3% driven by new products and campaign launches that led to improvements in all brands offsetting higher labor costs. In South America, adjusted EBITDA decreased by 14.2% reflecting a lower consumption environment in the region except for Colombia, a slowdown in consumer activity weighted on operating leverage and contributed to the slow recovery in the region.

The net income for the quarter increased 559% year-over-year reaching MXN 512 million, reflecting a positive non-cash effect which reduced the cost of our U.S. denominated debt in Mexican pesos terms. The next slide, please. The CapEx for the first nine months of the year totaled MXN 3.8 billion. Of this total, 77% was allocated to store development initiatives including the opening of 35 new corporate units, the renovation and remodeling of existing locations and equipment replacement across the brands. The remaining 23% was directed at strategic projects such as the distribution center in Guadalajara, technological upgrades, process improvements and software licenses, all reinforcing the long-term competitiveness and operational efficiency.

At the end of the third quarter, the pre-IFRS 16, can we change? Thank you. The pre-IFRS 16 gross debt decreased by MXN 1.8 billion year-over-year, reaching MXN 51.8 billion. The company's net debt, not counting the impact of IFRS 16, was MXN 34.5 billion, which is MXN 2.5 billion more than it was at the same time last year. This increase reflects the bank loans used to settle the minority stake in the European operations, short-term debt for working capital and CapEx needs. Consolidated net debt reached MXN 47.1 billion, including lease liabilities. At the end of the quarter, 74% of the debt was long-term, with 67% denominated in Mexican pesos and 33% in euros. We remain focused on maintaining a healthy capital structure supported by prudent financial management.

At the end of the quarter, the cash position stood at MXN 4.7 billion. Turning to financial ratios, the total debt to post-IFRS 16 EBITDA ratio closed the quarter at 2.9x while the net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at 2.6x.

While we are still committed, we have adjusted the 2025 guidance. Given the negative impact generated by a lower than expected consumption dynamics during the month of September and the ongoing impact of the appreciation of the Mexican peso affecting the top line now, we expect a high single digit top line growth and a low single digit EBITDA growth for the year. I will now pass you over to the operator for the Q& A session. Thank you very much.

Operator

We will now start the Q& A session. If you have a question, please press the question button in the browser. Please make sure you are not in full screen mode to see the button. The first question is from Mr. Ben Theurer from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Ben Theurer
Managing Director, Barclays

Yeah, hi, good morning, and thank you very much for taking my question. Christian, Federico, and so two ones real quick. Just following up on some of the commentary you had about the softness towards the end of the quarter and obviously the guidance adjustment as you look now for slightly lower top line. If you think of now the weakness, how has that potentially carried into the fourth quarter in October, and are you seeing any difference between the formats? So thinking coffee versus pizza versus burger versus food service across the board, are there certain areas that are a little more affected versus others? So just a little more granularity as to the weakness in September, maybe over the last couple of weeks to understand what's driving the guidance revision.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Good morning, Ben, and thank you for your question. The reality is that, as we mentioned, the third quarter was we saw July and August pretty, pretty balanced, and then we have an important drop in September, and this was across, in general, brands and geographies. It's not especially specific to a particular brand. Obviously, as we mentioned in the report.

Some of the South American countries, we have a higher impact in those countries due to the deceleration of consumption but in general. Was across all geographies and markets, and assume ask going into Q4. It's too early. No, it's been two weeks in October. We see a similar trend in October.

Nevertheless, we have very strong commercial initiatives in all of our brands and across all of our geographies for Q4, focusing on mainly three particular aspects. One is product and customer experience innovation. The second one, value.

We can share some examples of some of the initiatives that have been paying off across the year regarding value like Tres Para Mí in Chili's in Mexico, Paradiso Italiano in Italianni's in Mexico, Noches Mágicas or Magical Nights in Ginos in Spain and Gourmet Burgers in Foster's and menu of the day in some of our brands which have been continue driving traffic, and that nevertheless for Q4 we have very, very strong and powerful.

Innovative and customer experience driven campaigns that we are confident that will help us drive the traffic during this quarter, but something very important to highlight is always protecting this gross margin while we preserve traffic. We know that during these times of lower consumption or slowdown, the brands that remain loyal to their customers are recognized when traffic comes back, so that's what we are focusing on.

Ben Theurer
Managing Director, Barclays

Okay, perfect. And then my second question is you mentioned potential asset disposal. Could you just elaborate? Is that more like regions you think of not being worth maintaining or is it brands particular? I mean we've seen for example the Burger King transaction in Spain. So that's something maybe in other regions to follow. How should we think about this?

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

We have been very vocal, Ben, regarding divesting processes that we are setting in different non-core units. I would say that is one of the main priorities not only for this year, but for the future and we're still dealing with more than four potential buyers for different business units. It is not going to be relevant in terms of the contribution to the top line or to the EBITDA, but obviously what we want to transmit to all the investors community is the focus that we want to deliver to the main brands such as the Starbucks, Domino's Pizza, etc. We are still moving forward. Sorry, we cannot elaborate on rumors, but once we have said and we have completed. This M&A activity, we'll give you more news.

Ben Theurer
Managing Director, Barclays

Thanks for that.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Sure.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Mr. Thiago Bortoluci from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Thiago Bortoluci
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I'd like to understand a little bit more the impact of the revised guidance, right, and this is on top of one very particular moving part that is FX. You cut revenue and EBITDA similarly, which, you know, could suggest that your broad expectations for margins are virtually unchanged. Obviously, we know that the stronger currency translation from Europe is a headwind, but gross margin could actually benefit from that going forward. Right. So this is just to see if you could elaborate a little bit more on how you're seeing effects, translation versus transaction effects, how your hedging positions are, how you're thinking about pricing and cost, and more importantly, what is your underlying assumptions for margins going forward. Thank you very much.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you, Thiago. I will answer the first part of the question regarding the cutoff of the guidance in top line and in EBITDA growth. Obviously we are losing operating leverage, and even while we have and we are having some help in terms of EBITDA margin from Europe because of the appreciation of the peso in comparison with the euro.

We are losing some kind of operating leverage in Mexico too. We had a really weird quarter. We have a good July and a strange August with one strongest week and a terrible September. So that's the reason that we are cutting off all the guidance for the rest of the year. And I would say it is only operating leverage. We are having tailwinds from the FX. You know that we deliver a guidance with a forecast of 20.8 pesos per dollar. We're having a good gross margin and in fact you will see a lower than expected.

Loss of margin EBITDA, but having said this, obviously we have to bring you the reality of what we saw in the quarter, and as Christian have just mentioned, with 3/4 out of the 13 weeks of the last quarter, it is pretty early to say what is going to happen. That's the reason of the haircuts of the guidance, so if you want to comment.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Yes, good morning, Thiago. And also regarding gross margin, we have seen positive tailwinds regarding COGS. As you know, there was a lot of pressure on COGS of goods, particularly with some commodities based on the FX. Now we are seeing that both the internal initiatives that we shared, some of them last quarter, are starting to pay off. There's normally three to five months of time when you start seeing the different initiatives to pay off. We are seeing that.

And also on the other hand, the initiatives that we have implemented and consolidated around productivity and labor, we have seen them start to pay off. So in these terms we are seeing steady, slow but steady margin recovery in our brands through these initiatives and still have had some increments on beef? No, but we are again, it's part of our business. We are managing. Every year as they come and. Through different platforms.

Thiago Bortoluci
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

No, thank you. This is helpful. And if I may, a quick follow up. We have been discussing on our open remarks and now the drag in September, right? Anything you could share to help us calibrate the magnitude of the pressure that you saw, particularly in that month.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

We do not disclose the transactions by brand, but obviously there are some brands where we had contraction of around 100 basis points in terms of the same store sales in comparison with the previous two months, and that's the reason, as I said before Thiago, it was only one month. Unfortunately, when we take a look at the guidance, we prefer to be really honest of what we're looking for the remaining part of the year, you know, the seasonality of this business in November and December, maybe we'll have a positive news, but as of today I cannot say that. Sorry,

Thiago Bortoluci
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Federico, Chris is super clear. Thank you very much.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Alejandro Fuchs from Itaú BBA. Please go ahead.

Our next question is from Antonio Hernández from Actinver. Please go ahead.

Antonio Hernández
Head of Equity Research, Actinver

Hi, good morning, Federico, Christian, thanks for the space for the questions. Just I mean very good color that you provided regarding the different performance in the three months. Just wanted to see if you could provide more color on September if there were how much of that underperformance. Was because of external factors, maybe competition. or anything specifically that you could provide on that. That will be very helpful. Thanks.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

I would say it's really macroeconomic factors, Antonio. I cannot say that we are dealing with something different from a cost of food. Point of view or something internal. I would say that we are delivering the same campaigns. Obviously most of the value coming from traffic. We have been telling you, these guys, we are not doing a 100% pass through coming from ticket. We have positive tailwind regarding FX, obviously we have 30% of the food basket dollar index, and I would say that everything is none from competitors. We know that the competitors are slowing down the pace of openings, especially in coffee and pizza, but having said this, we're not dealing with something different from a commercial point of view.

Do you want to [crosstalk]

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Avoid being repetitive? It's more. We have seen in general a deceleration on consumption. Particularly after the end of the summer, which had high spike in September. We know that normally every September slows down. Nevertheless, this was a little bit more the peak or the value was higher, so again this has more to do with a macroeconomic environment, and in general we see le ss thrust on the consumers in certain geographies as Europe, certain economies slow down in South America and likewise in Mexico. But we are expected to have, as you know, most of our almost 30% of our revenue comes on the last of the quarters. So we are as I mentioned with strong campaigns and strong value driven and innovation campaigns for Q4 in all of our brands and geographies.

Antonio Hernández
Head of Equity Research, Actinver

Thanks. And just to clarify, that table of September or bad performance in September is. All over the place. I mean not only in what specific geography.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Yeah, it was in the three regions.

Antonio Hernández
Head of Equity Research, Actinver

Okay. Okay, perfect. Thanks. Have a nice day.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you. Antonio.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Ms. Renata Cabral from Citi. Please go ahead.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Can you open your camera?

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Okay, don't worry. Go forward with your question, Renata.

Renata Cabral
Assistant VP of Equity Research, Citi

Thank you so much, guys. I'm sorry for the problem with the connection. My question is regarding Europe and t he improvement that we are seeing there in 2024. We know that it was a challenging year in terms of same-store sales, and we are seeing now a stabilization in the region's contribution to the company's results, so my question is what were the main changes that you have implemented to reach to the current result and still?` The opportunities that you see to further. Improve the results on Europe? Thank you so much.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Good morning. Thank you for your question. Let me take that one. I believe what we have seen in terms of the recovery that you mentioned, particularly driven by Spain, we've seen, t he customer reacting to the different campaigns in terms of innovation and value driven campaigns as well as improved portfolios in terms of cooperating like our brands in Starbucks, value driven initiatives in Vips and Ginos, new very innovative campaigns around chicken and burgers in terms of in the case of Foster's Hollywood and particularly Domino's, also the first half of the year they were very much driven in having more.

Let's say less traffic driven and promotional activity which brought us good margins, and now second half for Domino's will be more driven on achieving traffic, obviously protecting the margin, so I would say to make the answer short is the consolidation and the understanding and reading of the environment and looking forward of how the customer is behaving that we were able to adjust and adapt our different initiatives to respond to the customer needs for Q4, and looking forward, as I mentioned before, innovation is going to be one of our main.

Drivers and likewise as protecting value and margin for the customer. Value driven to protect value for the customer to drive traffic, but at the same time in a smart way to protect our margin. So I believe understanding what is the behavior and what the customer is looking for is what's being paying off, particularly driven by Spain.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Additionally, Renata, in the bottom part of the P& L, we are implementing a lot of different strategies in the stores. For example, we're increasing the productivity, trying to measure what are the peak hours of the day to have a better deployment of the workforce, and we are having terrific results. Additionally, in all the headquarters corporate offices, obviously, we are stopping with doing non-core activities. We have been growing. Really, we had relevant growth during the last 10 years in Alsea. So we are going back to basics to consolidate synergies, moving different areas to where we are performing the best tasks. So we are having a lot of efficiencies in the bottom. But obviously, when we are losing the leverage, as we have seen in September, it is impossible to offset only with these efficiencies the loss of sales.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

To complement this last part that you mentioned, Renata, also we have seen. This, let's say, a pproach where we consolidate the brands and when we are capturing opportunities like in the FSR segment, where we are creating and generating a lot of synergies, it's paying off. So in a way the strategy that we started at the beginning of the year in these terms is maturing and we are already seeing part of the benefits of this strategy.

Renata Cabral
Assistant VP of Equity Research, Citi

Very clear. Thank you so much for the question.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Thank you. Renata.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Mr. Ulises Argote from Santander. Please go ahead.

Ulises Argote
Equity Research Analyst, Santander

Thanks for the space for questions. I just wanted to understand a little bit better here on the base of remodelings. Is this something we can expect going forward for the next couple of years? Or what's more or less the timeline that you guys have in mind for this? And also to understand if this is focused on any specific format or region or if it's more across the board. Then, a follow-up to that is. If you guys have any color that you can share, maybe on the sales lift that you're seeing on these remodeled stores? Thank you very much.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Yes, good morning, Ulises. I will take that one. Yes. As I mentioned in our first call, one of our main priorities is how do we make our existing portfolio more profitable through driving same store sales and basically driven by traffic, and remodeling is clearly.

A very strategic lever that allows us to drive this additional traffic both one way through having better looking stores, but also more efficient stores. When you have a remodel store that has been operating for five, seven, 10 years, you already know how the store behaves, what type of customers you get in those stores. So when we do these types of renovations or remodelings, we adjust to the reality of each one of the stores and the needs of each one of the stores. So as we mentioned in the first, in our last call, we are in an average of 2:1 remodelings or renovations for each opening that shifts between different brands. Some brands or some geographies we are 3:1. Some cases we are 1:1.

But clearly the renovation of our existing portfolio is one of the key drivers of traffic, together with having the best operational talent in each one of our stores, which is also one of our key strategies. Where we are focusing regarding payoff, where we have seen the highest impact in terms of payoff is in the FSR or casual dining segment and in Starbucks, because obviously different from Domino's or the customer doesn't necessarily stay in the store for a long period of time. In the case of Starbucks and our full service restaurant segment, in both geographies, we clearly see that the customer really appreciates these types of renovations. So we've seen between mid to high single digit growth in some of the segments and to double, I would say double low teens, low teens in the case of FSR. It's part of now, a clear strategy for us and a clear priority.

Ulises Argote
Equity Research Analyst, Santander

No, thank you very much for the color. That's super clear.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Thank you. Ulises,

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Ms. Isabella Lamas from UBS. Please go ahead.

Isabella Lamas
Equity Research Associate Director, UBS

Hi. Hi. Christian, Federico, Gerardo, thanks. Thank you very much for taking my question. I have two here, so firstly, could you discuss a little bit more about the input cost, particularly in the scenario of peso appreciation? We kind of wanted to get a sense of how you're thinking about your cost inflation going forward and how that compares to what you have experienced through this year, and how should you think about the margin set up for next year, and my second one, it's a quick one regarding leverage ratios. You've just reiterated your guidance as for this year, so we were wondering if you have any views you could share for next year, any kind of range or what we should be aiming for. That's it. Thank you very much.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Okay, thank you, Isabella. Regarding the input cost we are not having and talking only regarding Mexico and South America. We are not having more headwinds regarding FX. I would say that at this point of the year is totally comparable and in some cases better than in 2024. That's from one side. As you know, we have 30% of the inputs dollar index in Mexico and the rest of South America's brands, and additionally for the next year we are forecasting a mid-low single-digit input cost for 2026, and regarding the guidance, we changed the guidance for 2025 from a low-teens in top line to high-single-digit, and regarding EBITDA growth from a mid-single-digit to a low-single-digit regarding 2026, it is too early. We are building our budget with the different variables.

So we'll tell you something in the next conference in the month of February. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Ms. Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Hello, good morning. Thank you, everyone, for taking my question. I have three actually. One, it's, c ould you, I noticed a sharp increase in the leasing expense on the cash flow from MXN 4.6 billion from MXN 3.6 billion, 26% increase actually, which is quite high compared to your sales and also to the store base. Is there anything here was a renegotiation in some regions specific some brand. Is there something that is not perhaps recurring or it is related with some stores that you're already opening under construction and paying but not open. Can you give me a little bit of sense of how we should interpret this especially looking forward. Right. Because it increases from 6.3% of sales to 7.4% of sales in one year.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Okay, Julia. Yes, Julia. We have been very vocal from December on regarding the lease change that we do from a post- IFRS 16 perspective. As you know, we manage the business on pre- IFRS 16 figures.

But the change was because we standardized the criteria of all the leasing contracts across the geographies to have a single one company wide. For example, we had a different policy in Europe from a Vips perspective, that Vips here in Mexico, while it's the same business, etc. So it is more an accounting perspective than a real change on the lease payment that we do on a monthly basis. This does not imply just to be repetitive and increasing the rental expense, but in the way that we account these leases. This is an effect we'll have till the last quarter of 2025 and from the first quarter of 2026 it is not going to be a relevant change. I don't know if you had another question, Julia?

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Yes, just a follow up. I'm not talking about the depreciation amortization, I'm talking about the cash flow payment on the free cash flow generation.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

No changes from a free cash flow. From a free cash flow payment, it is pretty much the same. We have around 35% of the lease contracts on a variable basis, totally linked to the gross revenues and the remaining 65%-70% depending on the region, is totally fixed and increase with half of the inflation of each one of the countries. So we don't have a relevant change from a cash flow perspective into the lease part.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay, we follow up that later also on the interest expenses. Also when we analyze the rate of how much you paid again on a cash basis, the MXN 2.9 billion, almost MXN 3 billion compared to the average net debt of the period, we have kind of a rate around 14% roughly, which is well above the base rate. Is there anything here that is not recurring? Again, looking forward, how we should expect the cost of that or interest expenses to be?

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Well, unfortunately it was like that because while we have the $500 million bonds 7.75% , it is swapped. So we pay a rate about 13% from the dollar bonds. And that's the reason. And I want to link to what are we doing with the LT with the liabilities management for 2026. We are moving forward accordingly to the plan. We are almost ending with the refinancing of the 100% of the liabilities, the financial liabilities in the balance sheet. And we'll have savings above $20 million for 2026. We're still dealing with it. That's the reason I do not want to give you more details, but we will change from bonds in dollars and in euros to bank debt, which is cheaper and that will improve the average duration that we have into the balance sheet. But you will see savings on the 2026.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Fantastic. Last one would be on the remodeling. The focus increases the focus of the company on the remodelings.

Is there any specific brand or region that you are going to allocate resources? More or less. And can you give me a rough sense of how much it costs a remodeling, a Starbucks versus one opening? Just we can make some calculations here of how that would be.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Regarding the cost, it's around 1/3 of the cost of a new opening and regarding the regions and the.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Yeah, regarding the regions and the brands, as I was sharing before, Julia, we are the brands where we see that are that react, m ost the best when we do a remodeling are Starbucks and all the FSR segment, so.

We also do remodelings in some of the other brands, but we are focusing mainly on the brands where we have the best reaction from our customers in terms of traffic, which are the casual dining segment and Starbucks. Regarding the geographies, it's a strategic approach. Depends on the aging of the portfolio. In some cases depends on if there is a particular region, area, city where we see that we have an opportunity to drive additional traffic, and I can tell you that, or in the case where we see some additional competition coming in, so there is a different very strategic approach to this, and as I mentioned before.

We are privileging remodelings over openings with a much more focused and disciplined growth.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

So it's mostly Starbucks and casual dining.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Yes.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

In the region you don't have a specific target.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

In general, obviously where we have a higher number of stores or a bigger portfolio like we do in Mexico with more than 900 Starbucks stores, you will see a bigger number of renovations. Likewise, with the FSR or casual dining segment in Mexico and Spain where we have also an important portfolio there, so that depends more on the size of your existing portfolio, but this is a very high priority for us, and with a good ROI, every time we do, as Federico was saying, is a 1/3 of what we do in a new store, and the ROI is very, very good.

Julia Rizzo
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you Julia.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Mr. Bruno Ramirez from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Bruno Ramirez
Equity Research Intern, JPMorgan

Hi everyone. Thank you for taking the question. The question would be regarding full service restaurants. How sustainable is to keep seeing this performance as it has been in the past quarters? And second question would be about the run rate for CapEx levels. Thank you.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

I will go with the second one. Regarding the CapEx. This year we will be spending around MXN 6 billion- MXN 6.1 billion for CapEx. We are turning things into the company so only we have no-brainer projects. As you know, we have recently opened the facility of the distribution center in Guadalajara. It was o n Tuesday and we'll have a lot of profitability and diversification to all the different routes, so for 2026 I think that the guidance and, as I said before, it is too early but should be in the range of MXN 5.5 billion at least for 2026, and the openings should be a similar figure to what we have seen during 2025 of around 200 openings, taking into consideration not only corporate stores, but franchisees and some franchisees too.

Bruno Ramirez
Equity Research Intern, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

Yes, yes, I'm taking this one. Good morning, Bruno. As you have seen in the past, I would say 24 months, we have seen a very steady g rowth in the performance of our FSR segment both i n Spain and Mexico. We continue delivering with a lot of innovation and very disciplined and focused growth on each one of the brands. Both our own brands like we do in Europe and with our franchisors from the other brands in our portfolio where we are working. We have seen clearly brands like Chili's doing extraordinarily with extraordinary performance in the U.S., so we learn a lot from that.

We continue holding hands with our franchisors and seeing how this is really being executed and transferred with some value-driven initiatives in Mexico, likewise with the Cheesecake Factory, so I believe the preference of the consumer of our brands and I would say the consistency that we have been able to deliver in the last years is clearly paying us and showing us that the customer wants to.

Wants to be in our stores and the quality of our products has continues to be a big differentiator. We have not fallen into t his attractive or sexy approach to trying to reduce costs by reducing portions or things like that. We are clearly going the other way. We are very disciplined in maintaining our value-driven initiatives that have been there for more than three years now, and we keep refreshing them with innovation and new products, so again, this is a segment that we are very happy with the performance. At the same time, we are very obviously the investment in these types of stores or restaurants is an important investment, so we are always very cautious and careful ongoing for the no-brainer and locations that we know we're going to do well, and as I said before, Bruno, we still have an important number of stores to renovate and we know that this is going to drive and continue driving additional traffic.

And also in some cases growing through our franchisees is a very important part of our strategy. Our franchisees are very happy and confident with the performance of these brands. So we continue getting demands on trying to continue developing the brand through franchises, particularly in Europe and in some of our brands in Mexico.

Bruno Ramirez
Equity Research Intern, JPMorgan

Thank you. And just a follow up question regarding CapEx. So beyond 2026, what percentage of sales should we expect is 2026 levels? A good proxy beyond 2026?

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

I would say it should be around 1.5% as a perpetuity rate the CapEx, but it is better to have the guidance, and I will deliver both answers, what to model in 2026 and what is happening in the next 10 years.

Operator

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question is from Mr. Nicolas Riva from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Our next question is from Thiago Bortoluci from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Thiago Bortoluci
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey guys, I don't know, but I think I'm double counted here. No further questions on my end.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you. [crosstalk]

Operator

That was the last question. I will now hand over to Mr. Christian Gurría for final comments.

Christian Gurría
CEO, Alsea

First of all, I want to thank everyone for being here today and the interest and for your questions. Thank you very much. Before we conclude, we would like to thank you for your participation and interest in our quarterly conference call. If you have any additional questions or require further information, our investor relations team is always available to assist you. We wish you an excellent day and look forward to having you join us for our next quarterly update and the best holidays and the best holiday season and best wishes for you for this last quarter. Thank you everyone.

Federico Rodríguez
CFO, Alsea

Thank you.

Operator

Alsea would like to thank you for participating in today's video conference. You may now disconnect.

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