Earnings Call: Q1 2021

Apr 23, 2021

Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen, we now have our presenters in conference. Please be aware each of your lines is in a listen only mode. At the conclusion of the presentation, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given to the procedure to follow if you'd like to ask a question. I would like to now turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Gonzalez. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for your participation on the call and we hope you and your families are all doing great. Let me start by making a few brief comments about the quarter. Despite the many challenges we faced in the first quarter, we posted top and bottom line growth and very importantly, we maintained healthy margins. We posted sales growth for the twenty sixth consecutive quarter in spite of a tough COVID-nineteen comparison in a weak retail environment. We achieved better price realization in consumer products and export sales were very strong. However, top line was affected by the impact from the February winter storms in the Southern U. S. That affected some operations. We also posted very healthy and strong margins. Our higher realized prices, together with increased operating efficiencies and the positive results from our permanent cost reduction program offset the effects from a very challenging cost environment. Costs were negatively impacted by rapid and unexpected increases in raw material prices as well as from the impacts on energy costs and reduced production from the winter storm I alluded to. In summary, we had another strong quarter in a particularly challenging time. We are pleased with these results, which reaffirmed the resiliency and strength of our business model and give us confidence that we will again deliver strong results in 2021 and continue to strengthen KCM for the future. Javier will now provide additional details on the quarter. Good morning. During the quarter, our sales were 12,100,000,000.0, a 4% increase versus the first quarter of twenty twenty. Volume decreased 2% and price and mix grew 6%. Consumer products grew 3%. As mentioned, we faced a still partly closed economy as well as a difficult comparison due to increased volumes in the first quarter of last year, given early COVID pandemic purchases by consumers. Our sales were also impacted by forced shutdowns related to the severe weather conditions in the Southern U. S. In February. During the storm, some of our facilities did not receive electricity or gas, so they could not operate. And in others, we decided to reduce production in view of the spike in gas prices. These shutdowns reduced product availability in the quarter and had an impact on sales. And with respect to 4E, sales were affected by its product recall in The U. S, which is still underway. Given the recall, not only is 4E not selling in The U. S, but we are creating provisions that further affected this year's sales and results. Aware from home product sales were down 14%, reflecting continued effects from the COVID pandemic, particularly in offices, hotels and restaurants. Finally, our exports business continues to perform very well with overall sales growing 36% and sales of converted products more than doubling versus last year. Cost of goods sold increased 5%. We faced rapid and unexpected raw material cost increases in pulp and fibers to be recycled and very significant increases in the prices of oil derivatives. Against last year, pulp, fluff and superabsorbent materials were relatively flat in dollars. Imported and domestic recycled fibers, resins, gas and electricity prices compared negatively. The FX was also higher, averaging 6% more. Our cost reduction program once again had very good results and yielded approximately $350,000,000 of savings in the quarter. These savings are mainly at the cost of goods sold level and are generated by sourcing materials improvement and process efficiencies, with all contributing in a meaningful way. Gross profit increased 1% and margin was 38.5% for the quarter. SG and A expenses were flat year over year and as a percentage of sales were 50 basis points lower. We achieved better efficiencies in distribution expenses and continue to find ways to invest more efficiently behind our brands, balancing advertising with point of sales promotion. Operating profit increased 2% and the operating margin was 22.6%, fifty basis points below last year and representing a sequential reduction of 30 basis points. We generated MXN 3,200,000,000.0 of EBITDA, a 1% increase and EBITDA margin was 26.8%, a year over year reduction of 70 basis points, but in line sequentially despite the above mentioned impact. Cost of financing was $422,000,000 in the first quarter compared to MXN $412,000,000 in the same period of last year. Net expense net interest expense was 3% lower. During the quarter, we had an MXN 18,000,000 foreign exchange gain, which compares to a MXN 42,000,000 gain last year. Net income for the quarter was ARS 1,600,000,000.0, a 5% increase with earnings per share of ARS $0.05 2. Excluding the one time Texas winter storm related effect and expenses connected with the four year recall, net sales grew 5%, EBITDA was 9% higher and net income increased 15%. We have a very strong balance sheet, which reflects solid cash generation from EBITDA with MXN 8,500,000,000.0 of free cash flow generated in the last twelve months, positive results from working capital management and in general, priority of protecting cash. Our total cash position at March 31 was MXN 16,000,000,000. Our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 0.9 times with an EBITDA to net interest coverage of eight times. With that, I'll turn it back to Pablo. During the rest of 2021, in particular in the second quarter, we will continue to face tough comps and a challenging environment on the economic and cost fronts. We must continue to focus on strong execution on our short term priorities as well as on planning and acting to strengthen and leverage our capabilities and business model to better position KCM for continued success in the mid and long term. In the short term, during the second quarter, we will face the toughest COVID-nineteen top line comparisons, particularly given very strong 4E sales in The U. S. Now undergoing a voluntary recall. And we'll continue to face significant raw material pressures. On the positive side, the FX will very likely compare positive. To address this situation, we will stay focused on achieving greater price realization, operating ever more efficiently, leveraging our raw material purchasing contracts and accelerating our cost and expense reduction efforts. While we expect top and bottom line to contract in the second quarter, our efforts will allow us to grow in the second half of the year and continue to post stronger margins. We expect to conclude 2021 with another good year. With respect to achieving greater price realization, we are in the process of implementing a price increase of roughly 4% in our consumer and professional businesses, which should impact results starting in June, and we continue to look for ways to invest more efficiently and identify other opportunities to improve our pricing mix. Additionally, if cost pressures persist, we may need to implement additional pricing. On the cost side, increased demand, particularly from China, together with supply constraints because of forced shutdowns and supply chain complications like lack of containers and increased shipping costs has caused rapid and important increases in many raw materials. With most capacity coming back online and with global logistics issues being worked out, we should see prices start to come down. It's already happening in all derivatives and pulp and fibers to be recycled most likely have hit or are close to their pick price. But in the coming quarters, most of these prices will compare unfavorably and put pressure on our costs. Energy will also compare negatively. In addition to achieving higher effective prices, we need to take full advantage of our contracted volumes, particularly in pulp, continue to negotiate aggressively with suppliers, further increase our operating efficiencies and continue to deliver very good results on our cost reduction program. We're accelerating our efforts in each of these areas and believe that for the full year, we will sustain margins within our target range. Before we turn the call over for your questions, let me make brief comments on several topics, KCM sustainability aspirations, CapEx, profit sharing and our February shareholders meeting. In May, we will publish our 2020 sustainability report and it will contain all the information related to our new sustainability aspirations. We have made great progress on the goals we set back in 2015 and are in a great position to achieve even more. Some of the new goals are 100% of virgin fibers will be certified as coming from sustainable sources by 2022. '1 hundred percent of our packaging will be either recycled, recyclable, reusable or compostable by 2023. Our processes will generate zero landfill waste by 2025. We will reduce water usage by 25%, direct emissions of greenhouse gases by 50% and the usage of virgin plastics by 50% all by 02/1930. And we will positively impact 25,000,000 Mexicans through direct action programs by 2025. We have specific plans behind each aspiration to ensure we are successful in achieving them. And in the coming weeks and months, we will communicate more details. The 2021 CapEx program is proceeding as planned and investment is expected to be approximately million compared to MXN1100 million invested in 2020. KCM's profit sharing, one of the highest in the country, will reflect an important increase this year because of the company's good results in 2020. We're very proud of distributing it to our employees as has always been the case. And finally, with respect to our shareholders meeting, we're all aware of the approved resolutions, but I want to take this opportunity to highlight a few of them. The payment of the dividend in the amount of 1.72 per share, which represents an increase of 7.5%, a share repurchase program plan of up to MXN $850,000,000 and the election to our Board of Daniela Rizmacir, which together with last year's election of Fernando Lopez Guerra is part of our plan to strengthen our Board with very capable and independent young members. With that, let me open up for questions and thank you all again for participating in the call. Thank you. At this time, we will open the floor for questions. Our first question comes from Ben Toro with Barclays. Hey, good morning and thank you very much and congrats on the results and thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to follow-up a little bit. I mean, you've highlighted already in your prepared remarks, obviously, the relatively tough comp base because of the strong sales in certain channels last year. But you've also made some comments around the significant spike in raw material prices and we're seeing some sort of raw material pressure in various industries. So just to get a little bit your sense and your approach for the coming quarters on pricing, price increases, how you think about to implement those in order to offset some of the cost pressure and how you think about further opportunities to maybe squeeze out some cost efficiencies, be it on the gross profit line or on the SG and A line to also help offset some of that input cost pressure? Sure, Ben. Thanks for your questions. With respect to pricing, as you see in our results, we've been able to achieve better pricing realization and we've been working really hard at that. And now we're in the process, as we mentioned, of implementing a price increase of roughly 4% across the board in consumer and professional businesses that should impact our results late in this quarter. And we will continue to look for other selective pricing opportunities as well as be very aggressive in identifying and reducing, if possible, our promotional activities and investing more efficiently. So it's really a combination of issues that we're working on to achieve greater price realization. It's worked very well for us in the past couple of quarters and it's very important that it continues to go well for us in that sense. And when it comes to costs, again, we need to be very aggressive in taking advantage of our contracted volumes and be very aggressive on negotiating with our suppliers as we see prices starting to come down in resins and all derivatives and not yet in pulp and fibers to be recycled, but we believe those are approaching their peak and will start to come down given market dynamics. So again, use our contracts very effectively and be very aggressive in our negotiations. And other than that, operate very efficiently as we usually do, but we need to step it up a notch and continue to accelerate by our price our cost reduction program, which again has been very effective over the past years. We're doing well in the start of the year, but we need to continue to focus on that and accelerate. Okay, perfect. Well, thank you very much. Very clear and once again congratulations. Thank you, Ben. Thank you. Our next question comes from Bob Ford with Bank of America. Thank you. Congratulations on the quarter. Pablo, I really do think you're up against some extraordinary pressures. Can you comment a little bit about the trade, the competitive and the consumer response to pricing? And then there's also been this larger kind of North American production reorg, right, for KCC. And I was wondering how that's shaking out and how we should think about your ongoing role in that process? Sure, Bob. Thank you for the questions. Well, when it comes to our pricing, well, again, the pricing realization that we've been able to achieve has not so far affected our shares. So we find that what we've done so far has been very effective and has been well received or just absorbed by the market, if you will. As we move further into this price increase that we're doing across the board, we will certainly monitor closely the market reaction. We are all being impacted by the costs, so we'll see what the competitive dynamics bring, and we'll see how the consumers react. And we will certainly be monitoring it closely. But at this point, we're moving ahead, and we'll see how cost behave and whether we need to think of some additional pricing further out in the year or whether that's not necessary. When it comes to our organization, product organization or supply chain interaction, if you will, with KCC, as you can see from our results, we've been very effective on that. We continue to have a very fluid and coordinated approach with them. And we are looking at all the different opportunities in both the tissue front, the professional business and personal care business also. And as we find more opportunities and we figure what's the best alternative for both companies, we have to continue to supply more to them. And we will just continue to work very closely with them to identify opportunities and see where it take us. So far, very effective. As we mentioned, our sales of export products finished export products more than doubled versus last year. And the trend going forward looks very good. So we'll continue to, again, work very closely with our partner to find the best alternative for both. Great to hear. Thank you very much and again congratulations. Thank you, Paul. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jens Spieff with Morgan Stanley. Hello, Paolo, Javier. Thank you for taking my questions. I hope you're all well. I just wanted to ask, it seems that these one offs you had particularly related to the winter storm. Could you maybe give a more precise number of how much costs were impacted by that? Just to take that out from our modeling, considering that it's basically a one And also, if I understood you correctly, let's say that pulp prices and all derivatives remain at current levels, you would need to implement further price hikes in order to avoid margin compression in the second half of this year, correct? On the first one regarding the situation in Southern U. S. And Texas particularly, basically the impact we saw on costs from that was about MXN 130,000,000. That's on the cost side. And as we had to stop some of our operations, we also lost some sales, which again together with the voluntary recall from MXN forty, they both represent about an increase of a little bit over 100 basis points of the 4% that we reported. And that's when you put it all together, that's why we're saying that sales would have been 5%, EBITDA 9% and net income 15%. And then of that increase in EBITDA from 1% to 9%, about half has to do with this situation in Texas with the gas and about the other half has to do with the voluntary recall of Forrie. I hope that provides a little bit more detail. And then with respect to the cost pressures, yes, I mean, as we mentioned in our remarks, pressures will be substantial in the second quarter. But we expect that to continue or those to subside in the third and fourth quarters. And that together with the our pricing initiatives and our cost reduction programs and lot of the different actions that I talked about in cost efficiency, etcetera. We expect that again for the year we'll be able to again deliver margins in our target range and have another very good year. Okay, great. Thank you. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Mohammed Ahmad with FGP. Hi, guys. Thank you very much for taking my question. Hope you're all well. Just a quick question on consumer segment volume growth. If you could give me some approximate number there, that would be great. Hello? Sure. Yes, Mohammed. Thanks for being here and thanks for your good wishes. Same to you and your family. Volume growth in Consumer Products was I mean, it's pretty similar overall overall results. Volume was down 3% and price and mix was up about 6% and that's how you come up with a 3% growth net sales in Consumer Products. And again, volume was impacted by COVID-nineteen comparisons and the fact that the we're still working on a partially closed economy and it's still having an impact. So the volume comparisons are tough and will continue to be tough in the second particularly I would say in the second quarter again very because of very strong volume growth in the second quarter related to COVID-nineteen sales last year. Thank you very much guys and good quarter. Congratulations on that. Thank you. Have a good day. Thank you, Michael. You too. Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicolas Laren with JPMorgan. Hey, good morning, Pablo, Javier. Thank you for the call and thank you for taking my I wanted to ask you a bit if you had any targets this year in terms of cost savings. You guys printed $350,000,000 this quarter. I just was wondering if you had like any hard target for the rest of the year. And also understand on the 4E recall, should we see more impacts on upcoming quarters? Thank you, guys, and congrats on the results. Let me quickly take the second one. We should still have some impacts on the second quarter, which are going to be similar to what we had this first quarter. And we are expecting to be done with that one. Great. And then with respect to our cost reduction program, we're again working very hard at it, Nicolas, and we hope that we can at least replicate what we achieved in the first quarter for the next quarters. Perfect. Thank you very much guys. Thank you, Nicolas. Thank you. Our next question comes from Rodrigo Alessandra with UBS. Hi, this is Rodrigo Alessandra from UBS. Just more like a long term question, Pablo, share if I may. Just looking at what Kimber is doing in Latin countries launching market places, exploring B2C. Just curious how do you see in your case, are you exploring the possibility of on business to consumer e commerce? What's your view here? Here? That would be my question. Thanks. Thanks for the question Nicolas. So far we're focused on really being working very closely with both pure players and brick and mortars who have a very important e commerce business and we're growing nicely with them. We're doubling the business quarter on quarter and we believe this is something that is here to stay and will continue to grow aggressively. So we're even reinforcing our teams and we're reinforcing our strategies to make sure that we stay one step ahead and we deliver very good results on e commerce. When it comes to business to consumer, we really have what we've done so far is more from a promotional standpoint or either just from a sampling standpoint to make sure that consumers get to know our innovations particularly. We have no further plans at this point, but there's no doubt that when it comes to growth, we're looking at all the different alternatives to see what where we see opportunities and how we can take advantage of them. That's very clear. And just if it's possible, can you comment on or give us the revenue share that is already coming from e commerce that would be great? Thank you. Sure. I mean, when you take into consideration what we sell through pure players or what we sell through the retail channel that goes then through their e commerce, our sales are probably in the 2.5% range. Super helpful. Thank you, Carlos. You. You. There are no additional questions at this time. Well, thank you all again for participating in the call. We hope that you and your family all stay safe and healthy and look forward to talking to you at the in July with the second quarter results. Thanks again. Have a great weekend. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.