Good morning, everyone. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, I welcome all the participants to CCL Products Q3 FY 2022 earnings conference call. From the management side, we have with us Mr. Challa Srishant, Managing Director, Mr. Praveen Jaipuriar, CEO, Mr. V. Lakshmi Narayana, CFO, Ms. Sridevi Dasari, Company Secretary, and Mr. P.S. Rao, Consultant Company Secretary on the call. Without further ado, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Srishant for his opening comments, and then we'll open the floor for Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you for this, and good morning, everyone. The group has achieved a turnover of INR 423.59 crores for third quarter of 2021, 2022, as compared to INR 299.85 crores for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The net profit is INR 58.57 crores as against INR 47.11 crores for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The EBITDA is INR 93.04 crores, and the profit before tax is INR 74.68 crores. For the nine-month period, the group has achieved a turnover of INR 1,086.65 crores, as compared to INR 911.32 crores for the corresponding period of the previous year.
The net profit is INR 151.65 crores as against INR 133.06 crores for the corresponding period of the previous year. The EBITDA is INR 247.62 crores, and the profit before tax is INR 193.20 crores. I mentioned last time that we will be having a growth of more than 15% on a consolidated basis, and we are on track for the same. We can open up the floor for questions now.
Right. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may please press star then one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star then two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Anyone who wishes to ask questions, please press star then one. The first question is from the line of Jignesh Kamani from GMO & Co. Please go ahead.
Hi, Srishant and team. Congratulations for the terrific numbers. [crosstalk] O n the gross margin part, if you think about revenue has been pretty good, however, your gross margin has partly corrected both YoY and QoQ. Is it purely because coffee prices increased a lot and that's why gross margin remains, I mean, because of the higher green realization, margin looks lower or the mix of the freeze-dried and the small pack was lower this quarter?
No, no. It's only with respect to the green coffee this time.
Understood. How was the mix of freeze-dried and, you can say, small packs compared to earlier quarter?
Compared to quarter two, it's very similar actually.
Okay. Understood. Any update on the expansion plan, you can say, and the utilization levels?
Yeah. The previous expansion in Vietnam that was completed in last quarter, and that's one of the reasons for the enhanced capacity utilization also in last quarter itself. The doubling of capacity plans have already started, and by quarter three of next financial year we should be up and running.
Expanded capacity at Vietnam is running at optimum level?
Yes. More or less at optimum levels because there was a lot of backlog that was there earlier also. We are running at more or less full capacity. It will take some time for us to actually get the higher volume out of the plants because there's some customers we still have to get their approvals for the revised blends that we have to submit to them. That process will usually take one or two months. Yeah.
Understood. Have you increased your capacity at small pack also, right, to close to around 12,000 tons? Is there any color in the second half what kind of small pack volume we can do?
The small packs and all, yes, we have increased, but most of the equipment is only existing equipment that is there. There's a couple of new equipment that we have added. In fact, we will be adding some more in this quarter. That 12,000 expansion will be completed in this quarter actually.
Understood. Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Ganguly from Nine Rivers Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. I had one quick question on the domestic branded coffee business that was launched about two, two and a half years ago. Can you share some details of the same? How is expanding? What's the market share? By the way, we are also consumers of this particular. We have tried out this coffee. We really like it. But from a company perspective, if y'all can give some detail, it'll be very helpful.
Sure. Praveen, I think you can take this one.
Hi, Praveen [this side]. Domestic market, the branded business continues to do well. If you remember, the last year figures that we had quoted was, we had achieved a, you know, total turnover of INR 150 crore, out of which was branded retail business. In three years' time, we could achieve that milestone of INR 100 crore. These were last year numbers. This year also, we continue to do well. Both on a total level and on the branded side, we continue to grow at around 40%. That's been the nine months performance till now.
Would it be fair to assume that, you know, y'all are far away from a break even, you know, and not just because you all want to break even or anything, but, you know, the business is a growing and a developing business and, what kind of spend you all do, what kind of support, what is the thought process? If you all can also share some, you know, from a product standpoint, that would be very helpful.
Yeah. Your second part is right. We want to invest back into the business and keep building the brand. But the first part to say that we are far away from break even, that probably is not correct. We probably will break even this year itself. That's a heartening thing. We will continue to support the business both ATL and BTL. I had, you know, multiple times kind of said this, that both from a brand- building perspective as well as making, you know, the consumers interact with our product. You yourself said that you like the product. We want to you know do a lot of consumer interaction and sampling so that consumers are you know they're able to taste our product.
It's a very, you know, high- inertia category where people don't want to easily change. That's the strategy we will keep on adopting and investing back into the business.
This year you all will both for from the branded and the non-branded in the domestic market, you all will end up at around INR 200+ crores? Is that a fair assumption?
Yes, around that number. INR ±5, 10 crores here or there.
How much of that would be the branded category?
Almost, you know, let's say, just a second. A lmost 70%-75% will be branded.
Okay. Got it. In the branded category, what would you all now be having as a market share of the domestic market?
you know, as per Nielsen, we still are very small because our reach is very less, so the sampling becomes that much more difficult for small brands. In spite of that, Nielsen now reports us as the number three brand, and we have got a 3.1% market share in the South of India, which is the southern part of the country, which almost accounts for 70% of coffee consumption. There we have already reached 3%, 3.1% market share, and we continue to grow. This is like, you know, every quarter we keep on adding to the market share.
3.5% of the instant coffee mark— South India instant coffee market.
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayur Patel from IIFL Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hi, gentlemen. Congratulations for a good set of operating performance. Just one question, Srishant. Is it possible to share with us the overall volume numbers, some break up between different territories and geographies, and also the EBITDA per kg? Because like you have always assured us that percentage margin is not the right way of looking at it, as far as we are maintaining the spread per unit. Is it lower than the normalized level? EBITDA per kg and how much, you know, price hikes or how that will normalize going forward?
Volumes, numbers, and the EBITDA per kg, this data is something that we have consciously mentioned that we will not be sharing because it is going to be detrimental for us, for multiple reasons I'm sure you'll understand. As far as volume is concerned, on a percentage basis, I can mention that around 17% or so was the volume growth that we had, this time.
Okay. How is the EBITDA per unit or some spread per unit, how far is it from the normal level?
From the normal levels, it's almost the same actually. There's not much of a change. We work on a cost plus basis, right? That's why if there's any change in raw material prices based on the extent of raw material prices only we pass on to the customer. Based on the blend that we are supplying to that particular customer, the per kg based realization will always be the same. That's one of the main reasons why the same customers have been with us for so many years. Because if there's any fluctuation in prices also, it's not like we use that as an opportunity to increase prices or anything like that.
Sure, sure. 17% volume growth is. Thanks. That's helpful. At least that gives us some perspective. Srishant, are we maintaining your 15%-20% growth guidance for this year?
Yes. Yes, we are.
That's on revenue or that's on volume?
That's on the volume growth. See, we normally give a guidance based on volume growth. Revenue becomes a little misleading because revenue will definitely be more than 20%.
Sure.
Maybe even 25%. That's why we usually give only on the volume numbers.
Sure. Just like you mentioned, but my line was bad, what is the current status of the capacity expansion timelines? If you can just reiterate, that would be helpful. That's it from my end.
Right now in Vietnam, we have completed the previous round of expansion, so we have 13,500-ton capacity over there right now. We are in the process of doubling capacity by quarter three of next financial year.
Okay. Quarter three of next financial year. That would be the commissioning of doubling of capacity in Vietnam?
Yes.
The packaging related new capacity, all those things are commissioned already?
Yes. That will be completed in this quarter. Actually, the plant is already up and running. We are using the facility. But all the equipment shifting hasn't taken place, because we have back-to-back orders right now, and we're not able to transfer the equipment unless we get a small window. We're doing it in a very phased manner, so that will be completed by this quarter.
Got it.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mitesh Jain from Birla Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning. Thank you, gentlemen, for the opportunity. Three things. I have two questions. Number one is on the India business. If the domestic B2C business picks up well, as Praveen mentioned, would you be [able to dedicate the unit to], say, you know, Indian branded business? Because I believe some of those old [D2C] benefits will lapse and you would require capacity. If you can confirm that. This is question number one. Secondly, what is the plan on the new unit, [Sullurpet] unit in India? Do you have any plan to double up capacity of freeze-dried also at this point in time, or you will wait?
Okay. As far as domestic market is concerned, yes, our thinking process from day one was that once we reach a certain minimum threshold level, that's when we'll initiate the process of setting up a new factory or DTA unit, which is dedicated for the domestic market. That process also will be starting by maybe end of this year itself. As far as the second question, what did you ask? Hello?
Yes.
What was the second question?
No, second question is on the FDC expansion.
FDC expansion. Yeah. We are not really looking at that at this point in time because, based on the market information that we have, there are a couple of new plants that are coming online, one in Brazil, another in Vietnam, by next year.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on FD going forward. We were thinking that it's better for us to delay this process a little bit. When we have a little bit more confidence about whether it's worth going in for the FD expansion, at that point in time, we will go in for that expansion. Right now, see, there's normally like a cycle that the market follows for SD and FD. Today, the gap between SD and FD has come down drastically. With the green coffee prices going up the way that they are, people are looking at cheaper options, and SD is the only option that they can transition to. In SD also, you have really good qualities which are possible, which are still cheaper than FD.
That's why there is more of a movement towards SD that we are seeing, and we foresee that the green coffee prices are likely to be high for the next two years at least. That's one of the reasons why we are more confident about SD expansion rather than FD at this point in time.
Fair enough. My last question is, you mentioned that overall you have 3.5% market share in South India. If you were to dissect or if you were to look at some of the, say, micro markets, okay, coffee- consuming market in South India. For example, let's talk about, say, Andhra or Telangana or, some, you know, smaller region. What is our market share in those micro markets? In any of those markets, have you crossed, say, 7%, 8% market share also in some of the pockets? Basically, I'm going one step down, what you, Praveen mentioned.
Sure, sure. Praveen? Praveen will answer this.
We're doing extremely well, especially, like, say, whole of AP and Telangana, we probably are at 6%-7% market share. That's pretty heartening. Even in Karnataka, we are now very close to 5%. Tamil Nadu is a market which we have to develop more. Yeah, there are pockets which we have done well, and now we know that, okay, what works in the market and these micro markets. We just have to kind of, you know, try and replicate more of what we have done in these markets into other markets.
Fair enough. Last one is how is this coffee vending machines business doing?
You know, coffee vending machine business for last two years has been a little, you know, on a roller coaster because of COVID, because large part of coffee vending is out-of-home consumption. We all know that, you know, time and again, this has been hampered. We are quite, you know, bullish on this segment that sooner or later when the COVID thing goes away and when people are back to office, this segment is going to grow because out-of-home coffee consumption is set to rise. Considering India's workforce, which is going to consume that much amount of coffee, this segment is going to grow big. We're just waiting for this right opportunity where we can, you know, mount up our pressure on this business.
Fair enough. Thank you very much. Appreciate the response. Yeah, that's all from my side.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashwini Agarwal from Ashmore Investment Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Srishant and team, and good numbers. Congratulations. One of the things I was wondering is that, you know, if you look at the next two or three years, how should we think about, margins on a per kg or a per ton basis? Because you have multiple drivers, right? I mean, there is consumer packs, then there is the cold brew, and then you have hopefully operating leverage from larger capacities at, Vietnam in terms of spreading the overheads over a larger volume. And you have the consumer business going from a loss to profit. How should we think about this? I mean, is this going to be a significant driver of margins over the next two or three years on an rupee- per- kg basis, if we were to plot them?
I think Lakshmi Narayana can answer this.
Can you repeat the question, please, if you don't mind?
No, no. The question I had posed was that on a strategic basis, if you think about it over the next three years or so, there is a lot of efforts that, from what I understand, the company's made over the last three years, which includes, you know, the consumer foray, which is now turning around as explained earlier on the call. Then there is the consumer packs. Then there is larger capacity in Vietnam, which should hopefully see some operating leverage. You have the cold brew. I mean, putting all this together, I mean, what kind of a lift to operating margins on a per- kg or per- ton basis should we think about over the next two or three years?
We have certain issues that we cannot expect upon the per- kg basis, the margins and all. By introducing the different kind of products and the capacity expansions in force, and once [audio distortion]
Excuse me. This is the operator. Sir, I'm sorry to interrupt. Your voice is breaking.
Yeah. After introducing the different varieties of products that we are working on and as well the completion of the installed capacity at Vietnam and all, and even after implementing the separate facility for the DTA requirement for our domestic business, there is a possibility that to increase the margin, but as we stated that we work on the cost-plus model, we keep following the same procedure that we adopted so far. But we still having introducing the new products, definitely there will be a little amount of improvement will be there in the operating margin.
In other words, we are talking about when we are adding premium products as well as small packs going forward, on an average basis, the per kg margins also will improve slightly.
Okay. It's going to be a small improvement is what you're suggesting, not a significant improvement.
Yeah. Because our volume base is already so high. If, I mean, whatever new products that we introduce, that volume will be initially small. It will take some time for that base to increase substantially more.
Right. Okay. The second question I had was that, you know, over the last four quarters, shipping costs, container availability has been challenging. What we are hearing is that a lot of that has now normalized. What are you seeing on the ground?
Actually, things really haven't normalized. It's not as bad as it was before, because we are getting containers, but we are still being forced to pay the higher premiums and all that, which is impacting everything for us. In fact, as a country as a whole, if you have to supply from India, we're not able to compete with Vietnam. Vietnam, raw material is available locally, so there's no transport cost. Earlier, the gap between India and Vietnam was only marginal, so we could supply to customers from either option. Today, customers are saying, "No, I'll just buy from Vietnam," because there's a huge cost variation that's coming about. There is an impact of transport, and it looks like for the next one year it's going to be the same.
Right. Right.
Fortunately for us, our dependency, we're using most of the domestic. For the domestic market we are using the India plant more. That's actually a big saving grace for us, actually.
Okay. All right. Thank you, and all the best.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vineet Mehta from Sameeksha Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question was on the broader picture. What I wanted to know was, in terms of world- level coffee and geographies like Europe and, U.S., the big geographies, what is our market share and what kind of opportunities are we seeing in that segment?
Our market shares in each geography will be in the range of maybe 5% or so in most of these places. In U.S. we'll be at around almost 7% in the U.S. Europe will be a little lesser because that's a much bigger market. Asia and other places, there's some countries we are like in Russia, we'll be more or less at around 15% or so approximately. In Asia and other markets also it keeps varying depending on the region that we're looking at.
Where are we seeing the growth opportunities in these markets?
We're actually seeing across the board. It's not restricted to any one area. There are a lot of new territories that we keep going to as well. Yeah, new markets also that we are seeing good growth potential.
Okay. My second question was regarding the working capital. The working capital requirement for us has increased in the last two or three years. Last two years, actually. Is this what will be the case more going forward or it is going to get normalized to back to its FY 2019, FY 2018 levels?
No, actually, I think the working capital there'll be further enhancement going forward because of the volumes that are increasing. You would have noticed that there is a good amount of volume growth, compared to last year same quarter. In addition to that, the green coffee prices also have gone up substantially. Keeping these two main factors in mind, the working capital utilization also will increase proportionately.
As a percentage of sales, will it increase or will it normalize at these levels?
It's more or less normalized at these levels. On a percentage basis also because of the raw material price increase, it's increasing a little bit more. We are expecting the normalization to take place in the next two quarters at least.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you. That's it from me.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dikshit Mittal from LIC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. My question is on you mentioned that logistics costs are still not normalized. Can you give a sense like how much the container costs are up on a normalized level?
Normally earlier we used to have $4,000 as a container cost from India to U.S. Now India to U.S. is costing around $12,000. Even from Vietnam, for instance, what used to be, say, $4,500 is now around $19,000. That's the kind of price increases that we have seen today. Whether the contract is FOB or CIF, it doesn't matter because either we bear the cost or the customer bears the cost, eventually the cost has to be borne. Customers today are actually deciding which origin to buy from based on the transport more than anything else. For us to import raw materials also because the prices have gone up, it's becoming much more expensive to buy the raw materials as well.
Right. Sir, because as you mentioned that, basically most of the costs are passed through. I think logistics will be borne by you, right? With green coffee—
Logistics also. If it's green coffee logistics, that gets added and then only we quote to the customer. In fact, that's one of the reasons I mentioned earlier also that Vietnam is becoming much more attractive for customers because we have certain products which have been approved from both factories, and we usually give both options to customers. Earlier the situation was that either factory that they select from, the landed cost for the customer was more or less the same. Based on that they used to take a decision. Today, the gap has increased between India and Vietnam, which is why the customers would prefer to buy from Vietnam more than from India.
Okay. On the finished product side, that is borne by you?
The finished product side, mostly we do FOB contracts. Because of that, the freight is usually borne by the customers only. In some instances, yes, we do CIF contracts as well. In those cases, it's borne by us.
Sir lastly, you mentioned from India manufacturing you are servicing only Indian customers. So how much is that out of total for example 30,000 tons, how much is sold in India currently and how much is exports?
India, we're doing around maybe 5,000 tons or so. Rest of it is exports.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nakshita Mehta from Credent Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, thank you for giving me this opportunity and, you know, congratulations on a good set of numbers. I had a couple of questions. One is on the capacity. What would be our existing capacity and how much is the capacity utilization at this point, you know, the level?
Our existing capacity is around 38,500 tons. Utilization, we are at around 80%-85% utilization as of now.
Okay. Are we expecting it to, you know, to be utilized at the full capacity anytime soon?
Again, utilization will definitely improve going forward. Equipment typically you should take only around 90% to, I mean as, maximum utilization. You won't be able to really get 100% at any point in time because you have to plan for plant shutdowns, maintenance shutdowns, and all this as well.
Right. Perfect. Since we are expanding in Vietnam also, can I know the, you know, the export and the import revenue, import breakup as well? How much is the exports from Vietnam and how much is from India?
Lakshmi Narayana Garu, can you please answer this?
From Vietnam we did it as against INR 2,086 crores of the business, INR 322 crores we [derived] from Vietnam, which is almost around 97% are exports. The balance remaining, INR [1,100] crores almost, we derived from India. Out of this almost around I can say that around 90% is export and the 10% is domestic.
Okay, you know, coming to our next question, since you said the container cost has risen and there's an inflation effect also. Could you just give us a little color on that, what do you think is the inflation effect, and what is it going forward? What do you expect and how do you expect to deal with it? Is it a pass-through cost or can you just throw some light on that?
As far as container costs are concerned, again, it depends on the type of contract that we have with the customer, whether it's a CIF contract or an FOB contract. For all the CIF contracts we end up bearing that cost. To the maximum extent possible we usually do FOB contracts only from the company. We usually tell our customers also we'll if they want the conversion also to CIF, we do it at the cost of that particular point in time.
Right. What about inflation as in, you know, even on your raw materials? Also say since coffee is a premium product right now, because of inflation and those things, what is the demand? How is it—
No. Inflation really doesn't have too much of an impact for us because globally coffee is bought in dollars, it's traded in dollars. Our raw material purchases is in dollars as well as our finished product sale is also in dollars. That's why there's not much of an impact of inflation or currency fluctuation on our business. There's a natural hedge that is there.
Right. My last question is how is your distribution channel, you know? How can you just tell us a little bit about how you distribute your products and what is your channel basically?
You're talking about for exports or for the domestic?
For both. Both actually.
Okay. For exports actually we end up supplying the coffee to our customers who take care of the distribution from their side. We have partners in different regions who take care of the local distribution. For instance, in the U.S. we have this company called Ground Up. We've been working with them for more than 25 years. We supply to them based on whichever port they ask us to supply, and they do the warehousing internally, and they supply to customers after that. We have similar partnerships in Europe as well and other parts. In other several other customers we just supply to them directly to whichever warehouse that they ask us to, and they take care of the distribution after that. In India, though, we have a distribution network that has been built up by Praveen and the team, and we're using that for the domestic market.
Okay, perfect. Great. That's it from my side, and good luck for your future.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akhil Parekh from Centrum Group. Please go ahead.
Good morning, team, and congratulations on a very good set of numbers. My first question is to Praveen. Our domestic Indian market is roughly around INR 1,500 crore. You mentioned that 70% is South India, which roughly converts into INR 1,000 crore. If we take 3%, 3.5% of INR 1,000 crore, it comes only at INR 30 crore-INR 35 crore of branded business. Why we are at run rate of around INR 140 crore? I kind of didn't get this math actually.
Akhil, the first point that you mentioned, the market is not INR 1,500 crore. It is INR 2,300 crore-INR 2,400 crore.
Okay. Okay.
If you do the mathematics from there, then you will see that 3.5% falls in place. Secondly, there will always be a gap between Nielsen picking us and our sales because we are a very small brand. You know, the larger the brand is, the sampling becomes that much more robust because Nielsen also works on a sampling basis to record things, yeah? That is where the gap would come, a little bit of gap. But it is not as stark as what you mentioned because your starting point is different. It is INR 2,000 crore-INR 2,300 crore. Into 70% if you take, it will be almost INR 1,500 crore into, you know, 3.5% if you take, it will be around INR 55 crore, INR 60 crore, yeah? That is what Nielsen is picking. There is a little bit of a distinct gap because of the sampling this thing.
Sure. Sure. Second question is y ou mentioned that we'll be reaching around 70%-75% of INR 200 crore this year, basically in the branded business, which roughly is around INR 140- odd crore. Is that number correct?
Yeah, absolutely.
Will you break even basically profitable this year itself basically at break even?
Yeah, we should break even. You know, we are not generally that was the target we had put that we'll break even. Whatever we are, you know, earning, we are trying to invest back into the business because brand building does require a lot of, you know, continuous effort. We will not be looking forward to pull back our efforts in the next one or two years or so.
Sure. One last question, the branded business. Have you increased your marketing expense? Because, I mean, it's heartening to see TV commercials across multiple channels on prime time basically. If you can please guide us in terms of h ow much you are spending.
We haven't increased our marketing. Generally, every year we have been spending around INR 13 crore, INR 14 crore, INR 13 crore-INR 15 crore on marketing spends. The reason you would have seen is that the first time we advertised on non-South channels. We put our ads. You would have seen the freeze-dried ad on various news channels and things like that i n prime time, yeah. That is the first time we kind of, you know, went.
Because we are now expanding our distribution in other cities as well, like, Delhi. All the 10- lakh-plus towns in India, we are expanding our network. Therefore, we thought that it will be good for us to build some brand awareness across, and therefore, we had done a little bit of advertising. But that wasn't, you know, hugely, there wasn't any additional spends on that. We are within that range of INR 13 crore-INR 15 crore of advertising budget.
Yeah. Okay. Will we stick with this target for next year as well, or are we planning to say maybe ads during IPL matches and all basically to—
I don't think so, you know, we can afford to be on IPL. Yes, you know, we are making our plans. This quarter is when we'll make our plans. Definitely we will add to awareness- building exercises. Now, whether it is in a niche way to do it on news channels or whether we do more of digital media advertising, we'll figure out a plan. Yes, the bottom line is that we will look forward to build awareness in the non-South area as well.
Sure. Got it. Just one bookkeeping question to Srishant. Srishant, did you mention that we are going to add capacity for spray-dried as well in India, starting from end of this year, basically?
I said that, yes, we should be looking at that option. Once the domestic volumes increase, the idea right from day one was that— See, today Duggirala is a 100% export-oriented unit.
Correct.
Anyway, 50% of whatever we are exporting, we can sell in the domestic market. As of now, there's no problem. With 14,000-ton spray-dried capacity, if we are crossing 7,000 tons, that's when we will start having problems because we'll be exceeding the limit. That's one of the reasons why we thought we'll start the process by the end of the year. That way, we can then create a DTA unit for the domestic market exclusively.
Got it. Thanks a lot. Best luck for coming quarters.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kashyap Javeri from Emkay Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much, sir, for the opportunity. Just, you know, starting with some bookkeeping questions. When you say doubling the capacity in Vietnam, this will be additional 13,500 or 10,000 tons?
Another about 14,000 tons.
14,000 tons. On the expanded capacity, we are doubling the number.
Yes, on the expanded capacity, maybe, with the line balancing, it may go up to 15,000 tons. It will be a little bit more than double.
The total capacity in Vietnam will be approximately slightly upwards of 28,000 tons.
Yeah, around 28,000 tons.
Right. What was the FDC to SDC proportion in the ratio in M9 FY 2022, and on the expanded capacity available in FY 2024, what would be the ratio on the, you know, production capacity basis?
I didn't get you. What ratio are you asking about?
Freeze-dried to spray-dried, what was the ratio in M9 of FY 2022? On the expanded capacity with Vietnam, on the consolidated basis, what would be that ratio on the expanded capacity which will be available for full year in FY 2024?
Around 38,500 is where we are at right now. The freeze-dried is at 11,000. The 11,000 will remain constant, and we're adding 15,000 to spray-dried.
Spray-dried. Okay.
Yeah. That means everything else is spray-dried. Apart from the 11,000, everything else is spray-dried.
Okay. Second question is on the U.S. operations. You know, the market shares that you mentioned is only on the outsourced business or including whatever, you know, likes of Nestlé do in-house.
What outsource business are you referring to?
You mentioned about market share in geographies, right, earlier?
Yeah, yeah. Market share I was talking about, like, overall consumption which is taking place in the U.S. based on consumption—
That's including the whatever, you know, some of the brands do in-house also manufacturing.
Yes, yes.
Okay.
All the bulk and brand supplies, everything that we are supplying to that market I was referring to.
Okay. In the last conference call, you had mentioned about, you know, another large U.S. retailer, besides one large brand that we are working with, you know, who has approached us for sourcing. Those conversations, has it progressed any further?
Yes. One, they've asked us for capacity, available capacity. We're saying only once we have that extra spare capacity they can consider us. Before that, it doesn't make sense for them to undertake the entire exercise. We need to complete our expansion and then only we'll be able to approach them again.
Okay. I mean, the blend or, you know, the type of coffee and all those, you know, approvals or let's say those conversations have been done or—
No, that is the easiest part.
Once the capacity comes in, it will just start from there.
No, that is the easiest part for us. We've already submitted samples to them in the past. In principle, they are interested, but it's just that, they don't want to have too many vendors. They want to have only two vendors, two different territories. They want to have simplified procurement. That's the reason why they're saying unless that spare capacity is there for us, it doesn't make sense if you're giving us only a small volume, like 1,000 or 2,000 tons. It doesn't make sense for us, is what they're saying.
Right. Last question from my side. Vietnam operations, can you give separate numbers in terms of what was the revenue and EBITDA for the quarter?
I think Mr. Lakshmi Narayana can give that.
Top line, it was INR 322 crores.
Sorry, I couldn't hear you, sir. Can you come again?
The top line at the Vietnam operations are INR 322 crores.
Okay.
Coming on to the EBITDA, it was INR 87.39 crores.
Sorry, 87 point?
INR 0.39 crore.
INR 0.39 crore. Top line you mentioned was INR 322 crore.
Yes.
Just one last question from my side. Again, just a clarification. You know, if I look at our, you know, EBITDA number in Vietnam and, you know, in Indian operations, you know, it's sort of, you know, materially different numbers. The EBITDA number in Vietnam was about, you know, 27% for the quarter versus that Indian operation just did about 16%, 17%. Why would such a large difference be there between the two operations?
Transport costs.
Sorry? Transport cost. [crostalk] Okay. Sure. That's it from my side, sir. Hello?
Yeah. No, we have to import coffee from Vietnam and other origins to India. In Vietnam, we are able to procure locally. This is one of the points I'd mentioned earlier, right?
I mean, the difference in this particular quarter is like the widest that we have seen in many quarters, and which is why I'm asking this question.
Transport costs have increased the maximum extent in this quarter, in quarter three. If you look at the transport cost on a per- ton basis, we used to pay around $80 per ton for green coffee to transport it. Now we are paying $300+ per ton.
Okay.
There is a huge increase in transport cost itself w hich is having a direct impact.
Right. Okay, sure, sir. Thank you so much, sir. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from Banyan Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Hello?
Hello?
Yeah, please go ahead.
Am I audible? I'm not able to hear anybody.
Yeah, you are audible.
Sir, my question is regarding the distribution network that we have. Could you quantify the number of distributors or other retail points of sale that you are reaching currently as compared to six months ago or any targets that you have for next year or so? I'm Mohit Khanna, not Mohit Kumar.
Hello?
Yes.
Yeah, Mohit, can you hear me? This is Praveen [this side].
Yes, Praveen. Please.
Six months or, let's say, March last year, we were distributing our product to approximately 70,000- 75,000 outlets. Today at peak, we are distributing directly to almost 1 lakh+ outlets. These are all the retail outlets that I'm talking about. That is the distribution that we have, you know, created. This is distributed through almost 300- 350 distributors across the geographies. That is those are the numbers as far as distribution is concerned. Going forward, obviously we'll have to plan, you know, we have to expand our network.
Networks expanding is a tricky thing because you must be very confident that the cost of reaching that additional outlet should be less than what output you get from that outlet. As we go along, we will take it up in a stepwise manner. Our whole idea is to get to a distribution level where the weighted distribution comes to around, you know, crosses the 50% level. Right now it is at 30%, 35% level. We need to cross over 50%-60% level. That is what we are looking for.
Right. If you could just also give a quick, you know, overview of how this is, you know, this network is divided among the geographies, north, west, south and east?
You know, largely, till six months ago, all of that [30,000], 90% was in south, and the rest was a little bit in east and west. Today as we speak, out of this 1-lakh outlets, almost 75% is in south, and the rest 25% we have started building in the east, west,, and north. East, west and north are relatively small right now. As we, you know, gain momentum. You know, what has happened is that every time we have kind of started to expand the distribution network, unfortunately, COVID has struck us, and that leads to a little bit of, you know, this thing, a block for us.
Thankfully this time it's not so severe and our efforts have started seeing the light of day. Almost, you know, now we are present minus south, so the non-south areas in 25,000 outlets. As for example in Bombay we are now in almost 3,000 outlets. In Delhi almost 2,000 outlets. In Kolkata 1,500 outlets. Similarly, you know, step by step we are taking our distribution ahead in these zones as well. This will continue going forward because the more we expand, the more, you know, sales we'll be able to generate.
Got it. Now this is the final thing on this one. What is the sales force or that you have currently on the ground to expand this network, and what are the internal targets to on the sales force expansion, hiring more personnel for to reach out, you know or cover the territories?
As I told you, you know, we will be expanding in a calibrated manner, because you know, cost is an important factor. As we stand today, we have almost got around 250, you know, people on the street. We will be looking to add another 20%-30% this year. Through that, and building through, you know, more efficiencies with the current sales force we have, we are looking to expand approximately another 50% of outlet by the end of next year.
Fair enough. Thank you so much. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritu Modi from IIFL Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir, and congratulations on your numbers. I think I missed this in the beginning of the call. If you can just help me understand how is the mix of FPP and small batch for you currently?
Hello. Yeah. Freeze-dried, you're talking about capacities or we're talking about ...
Volume. And t he revenue mix, if that is something that you would want to share.
Okay. FDC, as in one of the things that you mentioned is around 80%-85% capacity utilization is being there, so that stands across the board. Capacities-wise, I've already mentioned that 11,000 is FDC and balance is all spray- dried. What we have, out of the 38,500, 11,000 is freeze- dried and the rest is spray- dried. You can take 80%, 85% of that across the board. You'll get the data that you need.
Okay. In regards to the small pack, what sort of volume contribution are we getting from small packs currently?
Small packs includes both our domestic market as well as for our exports. Around 25% of our capacity is in small packs right now.
Okay. The expanded capacity, which is going to be somewhere close to 12,000 tons for the small pack, even going forward, it'll be used for indigenous consumption, like the domestic- branded business would be close to 25% or is it likely to increase more ?
It will definitely increase because domestic volume is also increasing and our export volume is also increasing. We are starting with this 12,000-ton capacity, but we have the ability to expand up to 20,000 tons in the same facility.
Okay, great. If you could just also help me understand, for our other clients, what could be somewhat delta between the bulk orders and small pack orders that we get in terms of profitability?
I can't really comment about anyone else because we won't have the data. From our side, I can say that the small packs is definitely more profitable than the bulk packs. That's one of the main reasons why we've been focusing on the small- pack business, because if you are giving the final finished product to the customer, the customer is willing to pay that extra premium as well.
Sure. Okay. Just in, if you can just call out something, if there have been any new client additions or those which you've won recently or anything worth highlighting on that?
Adding new customers is something that we do on a constant basis. Exact customer names and all that is something that we don't reveal because of customer confidentiality and all that.
Sure.
Yeah, every year we do this. Every year, every quarter, we keep adding new customers and new ideas, new territories. We keep expanding into new geographies that we haven't gone before as well. This is a constant ongoing process for us.
To the orders which we currently have and the capacity which we are currently even expanding and building that will cater to all the orders that we currently have in the pipeline, or we'll need additional capacity expansion even at Vietnam and in India?
We will be needing additional capacity in both locations, which is by quarter three, the additional capacity in Vietnam will come online. We've already initiated the process. We've ordered the equipment and everything. That will be completed by quarter three of next financial year. In India, once this expansion is completed, we will be able to free up a little bit more of the India capacity for the domestic market. There won't be any immediate need for expansion in India. We will be initiating that process of expansion in India now, so that in the next year or two it will be completed.
What sort of CapEx would we require for this expansion in both? I mean, Vietnam obviously we've indicated earlier, but for the new India plant, what is the CapEx requirement that will be required?
It's a little too early for me to say this right now. I think after the next two quarters or something like that, we can get into these details.
Sure. Not a problem at all. Just lastly, on the domestic branded business, we are currently at from INR 150, we've gone up to INR 200. Over the next probably three-four years, how are we looking at this entire business shaping up in terms of our contribution to the overall business at a consolidated level?
[crosstalk] Y es. So you know, as we have been growing, we would like to keep the growth going. I think that our endeavor of brand building should continue and we should— We are looking to grow at this, and obviously the bases are growing, so we'll not be able to grow at the kind of paces we are growing. In terms of adding absolute values, we are looking to grow. We're not putting any numbers right now. Putting the same kind of aggression that we have been putting in the last couple of years.
As far as the contribution is concerned, today we are almost 10% of the total value business of the parent company. Of course, you know, a lot of times people have asked these questions that what is that branded business contribution will be. That's a tough one to answer because for both these segments we are looking to grow aggressively.
We're not putting a percent of the pie as a target, but what we are saying is that how can both the businesses have a kind of aggressive growth that we have seen earlier, can that be maintained or not? Similar to what we have been doing for the last couple of years, we want to maintain a 30%, 40% growth in the domestic business. As we have given guidance, as Srishant has also spoken a number of times, we are looking at least in the next couple of years to grow both top line and bottom line for the parent company anywhere close to 15%, 16%, 17%. That's the kind of, you know, momentum we are looking to maintain over a period of time.
Great. That's very useful. A ll the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jignesh Kamani from GMO & Co. Please go ahead.
Hi, Srishant. We aggressively focusing on U.S. market in the last two, three years, in particular in the specialty coffee and the small packs. How is it progressing currently right now, and what kind of volume you are targeting this year in the U.S.? Adding to that, earlier we were slightly interested in the working capital and the receivable days. If you want to develop with partner and everything, how is the current status on the working capital in the U.S. business?
The response in the U.S. has been quite good, and our volumes also are increasing. In fact, one of the biggest challenges we've been facing right now is there's a lot of backlog that is there. That's a good problem to have. Overall U.S. business is growing. I can't get into any specifics about any particular client over there.
Volume will be in excess of 2,000, 3,000 tons this year in the U.S.?
Yeah, yeah, more than that.
The value on the working capital cycle because our receivable days from the U.S. was slightly higher than the other market because we are supporting the client.
Yes.
It continues to remain same?
The volume is increasing beyond that, so that's the same receivable days and all will continue. U.S. [audio distortion] pass on credit to their customers. Yeah, that's part of the normal course.
Understood. Secondly on the Vietnam, like in India, we have a, you can say tangible capacity, so we can produce more small pack, more variety of instant coffee. While Vietnam, we have a limitation in, we need to have a bulk production, large production. With, you can say doubling of capacity, we'll be so nimble in terms of producing small quantity, small variety, multiple varieties, Vietnam also just like India or it will more remain as a bulk, large client market for Vietnam?
Vietnam, the expansion that we are doing now, we are going in for increasing flexibility in bulk production only. Right now, we have maximum flexibility in India. That's one of the big reasons why we're doing more of small packs and specialized products from India only as of now. Going forward, we want to offer premium products and specialized products from Vietnam as well. We're building that there. We do have the ability to do a little bit of small packs in Vietnam also. Right now we are not really focusing too much on that because there is a lot of bulk coffee demand that is already there. We are just trying to cater to that from Vietnam as of now.
Understood. It's more doubling of capacity with also more towards targeted toward the bulk demand customer compared to India.
Bulk demand. We are getting some inquiries, especially from the Asian regions, saying that they want small packs also from Vietnam. For those customers, we are considering setting up a couple of small packing lines in Vietnam itself. We already made a provision on day one for this option. We'll start building a little bit of small pack capacity. It's not worth getting into more details for small packs from Vietnam at this stage.
Understood. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Okay.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Richard D'Souza from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Congratulations on a good performance. J ust couple of questions. One is, when we look at the gross margins at standalone level, these have been hit quite a bit. Is that a function of the logistics cost or do you think it is something which is a more permanent feature going ahead? What would be your view on that, sir?
As of now, yes, it's primarily because of logistics only, especially in the import logistics for green coffee that we are seeing the impact. Because all the contracts that we are currently getting, these are contracts that have been entered into long back. That's what we are seeing coming in now. Going forward also, as of now, the indications we are getting is things are going to remain more or less the same way for the next one year at least, is what indications we have got until now. After one year we'll have to see how things shape up.
Okay. The second aspect to this is if you look at your subsidiaries growth, I think those have grown far faster than what your Indian or domestic growth has been. Any insight on that?
Yeah. All the units are doing well, fortunately, because, o ne, as far as Vietnam is concerned, I've already mentioned there are a couple of things which are running in favor of Vietnam. As far as the Swiss unit is concerned also, thanks to our managing director over there, he's also been able to grow some volumes, do a little bit more of supermarket business in Europe, which has enabled us to grow faster there. Domestic, as you are seeing what Praveen has mentioned, we are seeing about a 40% increase in volumes year-on-year. The product acceptance has been excellent and demand has been very good. Our main constraints right now are with respect to meeting the supplies. That's the main issue that we're facing at this point in time.
Okay. A couple of questions on the international market. Basically, the value-added products, what percentage would they be of your total turnover currently? I believe, last year or something it was about 5%, 5% or 6%?
Value-added products. I mean, on the instant coffee itself is a value-added product. You're talking about specialty products within instant coffee?
Yes, sir. Yes. Specialty products.
Specialty coffee will, yeah, be around maybe 5% or so.
Okay. That hasn't grown yet, is it?
No. Because the volume base is also growing, right? The fact that it's still at 5% means that this is also growing at the same pace.
Okay. This you're saying as a percentage of turnover or percentage of volumes?
Percentage of volumes.
Volumes. Turnover could be little bit more.
Yeah. When it comes to turnover, it will be a little bit more.
Okay, sir. Any update on the markets in the U.S. and Europe, how they are shaping up after this third wave and how do you see it going ahead?
Demand as such, there's no real negative impact. The demand is more or less the same. It's constant. For them also, institutional business got converted into from home business. That's one change in trend that we have observed across the world, just the way we have seen it in India. Same thing is applicable in other countries as well. Now with offices opening up, even the institutional segment is slowly increasing again.
Okay. Are they seeing any corresponding dip in the home business? Will it revert back to the means?
There could be a slight decrease in the home business once the offices open up. One good thing is that because the consumption, the pattern has gotten created in the last one year, people are getting used to consuming instant coffee in the house.
Okay. One last question on the, this thing, sourcing in the domestic market. This instant coffee which we are importing, now going ahead, the pricing which is going to be there for the new contracts, are you going to factor in the higher logistics costs which is there for your import of coffee?
Yes, of course. All the current contracts, we have to factor in the existing logistics cost and then only quote. That's what we are doing. That's also one of the reasons why most of the customers are preferring to go to Vietnam rather than India.
Okay. A couple of questions for Praveen, sir. In the domestic market, the competition seems to be heating up. We are seeing a lot of aggression by ITC, and even Nestlé has started launching in sachets. How do you envisage it going ahead?
Sorry. Yeah. The competition is there. There is no doubt about it. The competition is coming from both the fronts. One is that, you have got larger players like Nestlé and Unilever putting the pressure, and you have got players like ITC trying to enter this space. Then you have these all the niche players, the D2C players who are also trying to, you know, launch coffee. You know, this is a part of a larger trend, and we're actually happy about all of this thing that is happening in coffee market because it is expanding the coffee. India has largely been a tea-drinking nation. All these innovations and all the things that are being launched in coffee is only going to expand the market and will help us grow as well.
While yes, there is competition, we are looking at it in a more positive way that it is going to increase the pie itself.
Okay, the second question also related to this is on the online initiatives, how far have you done?
We are doing pretty well on online as well. If you really go to, you know, sites like Amazon and Flipkart, you will see the amount of reviews and the amount of ratings that we are getting is actually indication of the fact that we are doing pretty well in online business. Today, the online business is almost 10% of the total retail business. That is good news. We are kind of, you know, keeping the growth momentum on and growing on not only, you know, seller portals like Amazon and Flipkart, but we are also now have created our own online shop and we'll try and expand as much as possible on that front as well.
Okay. Thanks, Praveen. Coming back to Srishant, sir. Any new customer signups or anything which has happened over past quarter?
Yeah. There'll always be some new customers that keep getting added every year.
Okay.
That's a normal ongoing process for us.
Okay. This is a corollary to something which I asked earlier. When you look at the overall product mix, the way your mix shifted up and the way you are expanding your new customers and new things, would it be fair to say that your EBITDA margin, the target which you have set of INR 130 per piece per kg, you would exceed that fairly over the next three, four years?
For the domestic market, INR 130?
I think here it's like for the consolidated level, the target of about INR 130 per kg? Or I may be mistaken.
Sorry. I didn't get the question. You're saying INR 130 per piece per kg? What is INR 130 per piece per kg?
INR 130 per kg of spreads on your expanded capacity, let's say thee-four years down the line.
Lakshmi Narayana Garu, can you please take this?
We are hopeful of maintaining that.
Okay. Thanks a lot, sir. Okay.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Lokesh Maru from Nippon India Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Congratulations on the amazing results. I just have one or two questions from understanding the business side, which is, for like, regarding the order book. For how long is the visibility that you usually have into your order book, let's say, just to maintain or roll the order book which you already had. Another is, what is the percentage of short-term contracts that you sign and have to roll over? What is the proportion of long-term contracts maybe, which you sign or must have signed previously? How do you maintain that ratio balance? Or what is your view on visibility on that part? Thanks.
Usually most of our customers, around 70% or 75% of our customers do long-term contracts, which is one- year- plus contracts. Out of the 75%, there are about 15% of the customers who do up to two years as well. As far as visibility of the order book is concerned, usually we'll have around six months to one year visibility of the order book at any point in time.
Okay. Got that. Thank you.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhiral Shah from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, as we know that Brazil is facing a severe, you know, drought-like situation, which has taken a toll on the coffee production also. Are we seeing any market share gain because of that, you know, impact?
There is an extent of market share gain because of that as well. Now Brazil has become very expensive. They're not able to supply to several other countries because of that increase in prices. That did give us an advantage during this financial year.
Okay. We are seeing that positive impact, right?
Yes. Yes, we are.
Okay, sir, since we are at the start of the new year and believe, you know, many annual contracts get renewed, so looking at the current order book, do we expect, you know, 15%-20% kind of a volume growth even for FY 2023 or even higher since we are also doubling the Vietnam capacity?
We are actually, we already have existing that one-year contracts and all. Typically, the customers will come more towards the middle of the year, middle of the calendar year. That's when we will get more 100% clarity for next year. As of now, our internal target is the same. We should be targeting around 15% volume growth. We'll be able to confirm once the year starts, the next financial year starts.
Okay. Just that, you know, our spray- dried mix is higher, and as you said, green coffee prices would remain elevated at least for next two years. Because of the higher spray- dried mix, would our EBITDA margin remain in the range of 21%-23%, or you believe, you know, we would be delivering even higher on EBITDA margin?
No, the EBITDA margins on a per- kg basis will remain the same. We're not expecting any significant change over there.
Whatever current EBITDA per kg is there, we would like to maintain it for next one to two years.
Yes.
Okay. Thanks, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Suvarna Joshi from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, most of my questions have been answered. Just one question, maybe on the product launch side. Like we've seen in the domestic business, a few products that were launched a couple of years back, and we are kind of building onto that. In the wake of these higher coffee prices that we are seeing, do we expect to launch any new products in the coming year, or how are we planning on that front?
We are not looking to launch, you know, immediately, a lot of products because we have, you know, we already launched three segments, the instant, the filter coffee, which is roasted ground, and the premix. We'll look to rebuild on these segments. Within these segments, of course, there will be little bit of, you know, product extensions, but not really new product that we are looking to launch at this point of time.
Sure. Thank you. Also on the export side, I mean, the last new product that we actually introduced was the cold brew coffee. Anything working on that side as well?
No, cold brew is one product that we have launched. We do have other products like microground coffee and all that. This cold brew is a new product category by itself, so that is why it stands out. It's not just a new product, it's a new product category. Similarly, as in increasing product categories is not an easy task, as in, you'll have only very, very limited product categories which are there in the coffee market. Today, we are present in all those product categories.
Sure. That's it from my end. Thank you, and wish you all the best for the coming years. Stay safe.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Tulshyan from Newmark Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just on this divergence on the margins on standalone and subsidiary, you mentioned that the transport cost is the biggest factor. Could you tell me how much of, on a percentage of cost basis, how much does this transport cost kind of come about to for our green coffee procurement?
I can give you the actual numbers if you want. Earlier it was around $80 a kilo, now it's around $300+. That translates to around $230 into 2.4 will be around maybe $0.60 or so approximately. $0.60 per kilo would be the extra cost that is going to be there.
Understood. This you think is—
If you take $6 as your average selling price, so 10%.
Yeah. About 10% impact.
Yeah.
Got it. This you think is going to remain because the freight cost will continue to remain elevated for the next few years?
Yes.
Got it.
Unfortunately for us, in India, as far as trade line is concerned, almost 50% of the capacity is being utilized for the domestic market itself.
Right.
That is actually a positive sign for us.
Understood. Was there any MEIS incentive that we received during this quarter?
Yes, we did. Lakshmi Narayana, that is 7.5 or something, no?
No. We have received during this quarter, INR 10.57 crore we have received.
Understood. You mentioned for this quarter we did about 17% of volume growth, which is very encouraging YoY. Would you have the same number for nine months? How much we did in terms of volume growth?
Volume growth for nine months, it was [18.105]%.
Got it. Just one last question on the domestic branded side, how much would we have done on the absolute revenue basis?
Domestic business total was approximately INR 140 crore, INR 145 crore for nine months.
Understood.
Out of which INR 100 crores will be from the retail branded business.
Got it. Perfect. This is very helpful. Thank you, and all the best for the coming quarters.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Zade from Antique. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. My question is regarding the recent price increase which we have seen in the last three, four months in green coffee prices. Sir, do we see any risk to the volume guidance given, because last year, earlier part of the last year we had only one impact of logistic or freight costs which has increased to highest levels in the third quarter? Maybe going ahead, there would be even higher pressure from the green coffee inflation. Is there any risk for us or for the industry in terms of volume, sir?
Whatever is applicable to us is applicable to the rest of the industry. Whatever problems we are facing, everybody, right?
Right.
Excuse me. This is the operator. Participant on the line for Mr. Srishant has disconnected. We request you to please stay connected while we reconnect, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for patiently waiting. The line is reconnected, so you may go ahead, sir.
Hello.
Yeah.
Sorry. I think I got dropped. Whatever risk that we are currently facing, the same risk is being faced by the rest of the industry as well. The competition levels, everything remains more or less the same. Now, it's more or less become country versus country rather than competition within the country. If you look at Brazil as a whole, today with the raw material prices becoming extremely high in Brazil because of the shortage of supplies, Brazil has become much more expensive than either India or Vietnam, even after factoring in the increase in transport costs. If you compare India versus Vietnam is definitely much more economical than India, again because of the logistics costs. Everything else is more or less the same.
If you, I mean, if you look at it on a broad level, all the manufacturers in each country are facing the same issues. There is no change as such in competition, which is why the volumes and all that with as far as customers' decision-making and all that is concerned also. It's not very difficult for us to project that we are aiming for that 15% at least volume growth going forward.
Got it, sir. Thank you. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take the last question from the line of Kashyap Javeri from Emkay Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for another opportunity. Beyond this Vietnam, which is another about 14,000 which will be completed middle of next year, what are plans for, you know, capacity expansion after that, also in India, you know, probably in Duggirala or in Chittoor where we have, you know, excess land available. Have you thought at least some initial thoughts on that at this point of time?
I've actually mentioned this earlier in the call that after the Vietnam expansion, by the end of this current calendar year, we will be looking at expansion in India for setting up a spray- drying unit for the domestic market. Now that the volumes in the domestic market are increasing, w e'll have to go in for expansion accordingly.
Any particular reason why at this point of time there is no expansion plans on freeze-dried? Because, one, it's, in the size it's small, and two, you know, the EBITDA per kg I would, you know, you have already highlighted earlier in some of the calls as well admitting that it's higher. Is that, you know, that particular market is not finding, you know, favor at this point of time, with the consumers?
Yes. Normally what we see is, there is a cycle that takes place. Today with the green coffee prices going up to the extent that they are, people are not willing to pay that extra premium for freeze-dried, and they're looking for more economical products end of the day. That's why the demand for spray has been increasing. Considering that the green coffee prices are expected to remain high for the next couple of years for multiple climatic reasons, we are expecting that the spray dried demand is going to keep going up. On top of that, last year itself, before this change in prices, there are several manufacturers who've already initiated the process of setting up freeze-drying units in different parts of the world, including Brazil and Vietnam.
There will be additional competition coming in that is going to put more pressure on this market. The thing is in freeze-dried, end of the day you are running a cold room with -60 degrees temperature, so there's a minimum level of operational efficiency that one has to achieve. You need to have minimum amount of orders also. If you don't have that minimum amount of orders, it's not going to be viable to run the plant. Whoever is setting up these plants are anyway going to be under tremendous pressure to desperately sell in the market. That's one of the reasons why we don't think it's the right time for us to consider getting into freeze-dried expansion, at least now.
Sure. That's it from my side, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Abhishek Navalgund for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you. Basically I would like to thank the management for patiently answering all the questions. Also thanks to the participants for joining in. Now, I would like to hand over the call to Srishant, sir, for his closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you for organizing the conference, and thank you all for participating. I just wanted to add one point to what Praveen had mentioned earlier, that we've launched our own online portal for buying our products. The website is shop.continental.coffee. Since we have a lot of loyal customers on this call, I hope all of you will take this opportunity to visit the site and buy from it. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Nirmal Bang Equities—