Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Abhishek Navalgund from Nirmal Bang Equities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Manav. Hello everyone. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, I welcome all the participants to CCL Products (India) Limited's 4Q FY 2024 earnings conference call. The management is represented by Mr. Challa Srishant, Managing Director. Mr. Praveen Jaipuriar, CEO. Mr. B. Mohan Krishna, Executive Director. Mr. V. Lakshmi Narayana, CFO. Ms. Sridevi Dasari, Company Secretary. And Mr. P. S. Rao, Consultant Company Secretary. Without further ado, I would like to hand over the call to Praveen, sir, for his opening comments, post which we'll open the floor for Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Abhishek. Thank you, Nirmal Bang, for hosting us for this call. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I welcome you all to the conference call of CCL Products (India) Limited for the annual and quarter-four results pertaining to 2023-2024. Despite headwinds of volatility in coffee prices and geopolitical issues, the company posted strong results and achieved a turnover of INR 2,653.7 crore, which is a growth of 28% over last year. EBITDA achieved was INR 451.3 crore as against INR 403.1 crore last year, thereby achieving a double-digit growth of 12%. The PBT stood at INR 276 crore as against INR 305 crore of last year, largely due to higher interest costs and depreciation. The PAT stood at INR 250 crore as against INR 283.96 crore last year.
Coming to the Q4 numbers, the group achieved a turnover of INR 726.72 crore as compared to INR 520.08 crore for the corresponding quarter of the previous year, and the EBITDA stands at INR 122.24 crore as against INR 115.47 crore for the previous corresponding quarter. The PBT stood at INR 70.42 crore, and the PAT stood at INR 65.22 crore. The domestic performance continued its strong performance and achieved a turnover of INR 320 crore gross sales as against INR 250 crore last year. Out of this, approximately INR 210 crore was pure branded business, and the rest was bulk and private label. The acquisition of Percol finished in the month of July 2023. Thereafter, contracts with all the retailers were renegotiated. The relaunch with new packaging, graphic design, and product formulation is taking place this month.
Also, the supply of products from third-party, which was earlier from the third-party, has now moved to us, and we are now poised to invest in the brand and see it grow. The new facility at SD started operations in the month of March 2024. The other project of FD at Vietnam is on schedule, and we should start commercial operations by September, October 2024. I now open the floor for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use the handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of Akansha Gupta from Solidarity Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir.
Yeah, hello.
Hello. My first question is that what has been the volume growth for this year?
If you see at the group level, the EBITDA growth was around 12%, and our volume growth was approximately 14% for the full year.
Okay, sir. And if I remember previously, you have guided for a volume growth of 18%-20%. So why is the volume growth this year 14% instead as against the guidance of 18%?
Yeah. So if you remember, in quarter two, we had a breakdown at our NCL unit, which led to lower production there. And subsequently, therefore, which could not be translated to sales. So we lost sales there. We had hoped that we would make up for the sales in the subsequent quarters of quarter three and quarter four. But unfortunately, because of so much volatility in the prices, the customer acquisition and gaining new volumes became a challenge. So we could not make up for that volume that we lost in quarter two, and that is the reason we could not achieve 18%, instead of which we achieved 14%.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Just one more question. In the previous phone calls, you have also mentioned that the volume growth would be 18%-20% for the next three to four years. However, when I look at the previous last seven years, 10 years, or even five years, the volume growth has been closer to 10%. So could you provide a little bit more granularity as to where this 18%-20% volume growth would come from?
So actually, in most of the calls, we have kind of addressed this. The reason is basically, just before COVID, the demand was there, and we had planned our expansion. But unfortunately, during COVID time, we could not go ahead for our expansion. And what we felt was that all the work, see, B2B business, and especially branded and the private label business, they take a certain amount of gestation period wherein you sow the market, you sow the seeds in the market, you approach the clients. And over a period of time, they all fructify. And we could actually, from our strategy, see that in the future, we would be—if we are aggressive—we are likely to get 18%-20% growth. And that's the reason we went ahead for our volume expansion and things like that.
So that is the whole reason our new listing of associating with our partners. We said that we are increasing our business in North America through ground-up. We are trying to make inroads into the Eastern Asian markets in China through our old associates and all that. So therefore, we were very aggressive in our approach. We went for expansion. And that's the reason, let's say, even if the CAGR was 10%-12% over the last 8-10 years, we have been expecting more of an 18%-20% going forward.
Okay, sir. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Rakesh Wadhwani from Monarch AIF. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, coming to the first question, sir, if you look at the quarterly numbers, in this quarter, the gross profit growth is around 15%. Just wanted to know, in the last quarter, we said around INR 45 crore of revenue got deferred in the Q4 because of the Red Sea issue. So in this quarter, the volume growth is sub-10% or 9%. Any reason for that?
No, there's no reason. Yes, it got postponed. But come to think of it, the reason that I mentioned that in quarter four, the customer acquisition was a little tough because of the coffee prices. I'm sure a lot of you would be tracking the coffee prices. It went to all-time high and unprecedented levels, so much so that these levels were never, ever seen in the market, and it continues to be on the boil as of now. So basically, what happens is that at these kinds of prices, the customers also become a little tentative. They don't want to go for long-term contracts. They are less committed. They almost work on fumes, saying that whatever inventory I have, I'll try and work on that in this hope that in the near future, the prices could soften.
All of these lead to very difficult times in terms of gaining new volumes. That is the reason in quarter four, we could not gain as much volume as we had earlier thought of. Things look much brighter now. The coffee prices seem to be softening now. The Brazil crop is on the way, and so is the Indonesian crop and the Ugandan crop. We are very hopeful that things will soon settle down in terms of prices. That's when our ability to drive more and more volumes becomes much, much easier.
Thank you, sir. Second question, sir, with respect to other expenses in this quarter, other expenses, there's a sharp increase in other expenses. Any reason for that?
Largely, a lot of small-pack volumes had increased, including the domestic volumes, because that is increasing a lot, and all the domestic volumes are largely small-packs. Also, in the exports business, our proportion of small-packs has increased. So that led to higher other costs where secondary packaging is included as the cost.
Just one broader longer-term question. In the past coffee prices, if I look at last 5 or 10 years horizon, coffee prices have remained in the range of $2-$2.5 on an average. And during that time, we were making INR 90-INR 100 per kg EBITDA on the spray-dried side and the INR 120-INR 130 EBITDA per kg on the freeze-dried coffee side. That has remained there. And because of that, we are able to maintain a ROC of 17%-18%, and an ROE of 20% around. That has remained. But now, the coffee prices have increased from $2-$2.4 to $3-$3.5. In fact, it has reached $4 also. So is there any potential for us to increase the per kg rate here? Because otherwise, our ROCE and ROE will come down significantly because of increasing coffee prices.
So actually, it's a double-edged sword. You know what? So when the coffee prices are at high, what happens is that at a consumer level, there is a little bit of a downtrading, isn't it? Because everybody wants to go for smaller packs, cheaper version, and things like that. And that is the reason, if you see, when the coffee prices were at lower levels, INR 2,000-INR 2,500, as you mentioned, that time, the demand for things like freeze-dried went up significantly. But as and when the coffee prices started to inch up, we saw that the demand for spray-dried started to increase because there was a certain bit of downtrading that happens at the consumer level. So although we would want to increase our per-kilo EBITDA levels, a lot of it is dependent on the market forces as well.
So that's the double-edged sword that we have one is faced with. But having said so, yes, from our side, there is a lot of attempt to make sure that we keep increasing our per-kilo EBITDA, whether it is trying to enter into specialty coffee segments or driving more small-pack volumes. All these are endeavors to make sure that we keep up our EBITDA levels. And that is the reason, in fact, in such high volatile state of coffee prices being at such high levels, if you see, our per-kilo EBITDA level is still maintained, which itself is a big achievement in itself because at such high prices, it is becoming very, very difficult to maintain that kind of an EBITDA margin. But we have successfully been able to do so. So yes, the effort is there.
But unfortunately, because of the current situation, things have become a little more challenging. But having said so, we are very hopeful that these are untenable prices because at these prices, what will happen is that consumption will ultimately start getting affected, especially the out-of-home consumption. And that's when, if the consumption starts getting affected, ultimately, the supply and demand would kind of normalize. And we are hoping that the coffee prices will quickly come back to the old levels.
Sir, one last question from my side. Is it possible if we are not able to increase the EBITDA per kg from us? Okay. I'll come back at the Q. I'll join the Q. Sure.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to strictly two questions per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, you should rejoin the Q. We have our next question from the line of Jenish Karia from Antique Stock Broking . Please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. The first question is with regard to the quarterly capacity utilization in Vietnam and India facility. If you can help with that breakup.
So in India, it is almost 100%, barring the new SD because it started somewhere in mid-March, so that doesn't come in question. So in India, we almost utilize fully. And Vietnam, the total, I mean, of the new capacity included, we are almost at around 65%-70%.
Okay, great. Secondly, was there any impact with regard to delayed shipment or deferment of customer revenue because of the Red Sea in fourth quarter?
No, no. There wasn't any.
Okay. And how much of the sales in the fourth quarter would have been because of the third quarter sales being deferred to fourth quarter as last quarter, there was some deferment?
Yeah, there is some benefit that we got in terms of top line. That is why you see that in quarter four, the top line was INR 726 as compared to INR 520 of last year, which is almost 40% lower. So there, we got benefit in terms of top line growth in the quarter four.
Okay, great. Sir, next is on your branded and domestic business. Any guidance for the next 3-5 years? Where do we see this business going in terms of revenue and profitability? And what is our market share in India and overseas for the branded business?
The guidance remains the same. We are aggressively driving it and investing whatever profits we are earning. The margins are improving there. The branded play has increased, as I told you, out of INR 320 crore India sales. The brand sales is now at INR 210 crore. And we are looking to drive that aggressively in the range of anything around 30%-40%. So that is what we are looking to drive the growth at, although the category is not growing at that level, which means that we will aggressively gain market share. As we had informed you earlier, we have been focusing a lot in South India, which is the coffee hub for the Indian coffee consumption. There, we are now very close to 4.5% market share. And we now are firmly established as the number three player in the Indian market.
We are now taking the brand to other geographies as well, and we are getting very aggressive there as well. So that's the plan for the domestic branded market. The international branded market, we are very, very minuscule. We haven't even launched our brands into any other countries, so there is no point talking about market share there. Our share is very small in U.K. right now, probably less than 1% market share. But yes, as I told in my opening remarks, we now have got the things right. We have got it relisted with the retailers, with the new packaging, graphics, and new product. And now that the product is being manufactured here, we are looking to invest in that brand and grow it substantially in the U.K. market.
And then we are also, at the same time, evaluating if some of those brands which we bought, which is Percol and Rocket Fuel, if we can take them into some other geographies as well. So that's the plan for our B2C business in the rest of India, outside India, as far as it is concerned.
Okay, great. Just one follow-up on the previous reply that you had given to the earlier participant. You mentioned that the freeze-dried coffee in a high coffee price environment, the demand is somewhere reduced. And we are putting up a freeze-dried capacity in second half of FY 2025. So if the coffee prices don't correct and remain at an elevated level, do we see this CapEx getting deferred by six months or a year, or will you still commercialize the plant on time?
No, we will commercialize on time because if you remember last time also, see, one of the reasons the freeze-dried capacity is coming at the last is because freeze-dried capacity, as you rightly pointed out, it's a more expensive capacity. We need to be very sure whether the volumes are there or not. And that's the reason we took some time. Only after we got a lot of assurances and underwriting from some of our key clients that they are ready to buy coffee, we went ahead and set up this plant. So I don't think so it is going to affect our volumes or our ability to sell. But what I was talking about is a general market scenarios when coffee prices go up. How does the market start behaving?
Because the question was about per kg EBITDA, the thing is that after two years ago, from there on, the first 16,000 tonnes was of spray-dried, which earns lower EBITDA than the freeze-dried. So I was wanting to tell that maybe for this year and next year, we are not looking to substantially increase our EBITDA per kg. But yes, the efforts are on. Thereafter, we will see that EBITDA per kg will automatically start increasing because of our efforts in small packs, specialty coffee, more high-end coffee, the new freeze-dried coming after September. So all that will start playing out for us.
Sure. That's very good, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. We have a next question from the line of Kashyap Javeri from Emkay Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible, sir?
Yeah, yeah, you are audible.
Yeah. Thank you so much for the opportunity. I have a question on our debt. I joined the call a little late, so I don't know whether this has been discussed. But at about INR 1,620 crore, our debt has gone up almost 3x in the last three years to generate an EBIT number or PBT number, let's say, for example, versus INR 230 crore in 2021 to just about INR 280 crore now. So incrementally, to generate the profits, the component of debt has gone up threefold. Now, out of this almost about INR 1,100 crore increase in debt, we have invested almost about INR 600-700 crore in working capital. I understand that this is also because coffee prices have gone up meaningfully. But what are our plans to control this part of the overall capital employed so that that INR 1,600 crore debt probably at least doesn't go up from here?
Gentlemen, if you look at it, we are taking up the 2 new projects wherein we are availing the funding from the banks almost around INR 650 crore. Out of that, around the INR 450 crore, which we have drawn in this year, which is the part of INR 620 crore. And in the current financial year also, there is an amount of almost around INR 200 crore we have to draw for this Indian F&B business as well as the FD. So another INR 200 crore on account of term loan is likely to increase, number one. Coming to the working capital, so as you might be seeing that, we are going to give the guidance to the next financial year, 2024-2025.
The working capital utilization also, keeping in view of my free cash flows availability from the operations this year, there is a likely amount of increase maybe there on account of working capital. This is relating to two aspects. One is about the kind of earnings that we are going to generate, the free cash flow that we are going to generate, and as well the green coffee prices, how going to be rolled out. Keeping these two factors in view, the working capital movement is going to be there. We really can't say that INR 1,620 is going to remain at the same level, which is likely to increase because, as I told you there, the volume value is going to be increased.
Definitely. I understand that, sir. But the question is that the debt is generating probably top line but not commensurating profits. So when you sort of talk about free cash flows, ideally, with such an expanded capacity, at least investments in working capital plus, let's say, term loans for the expansion so let's put the numbers in perspective. So our operating cash flow, even this year, if I look at your full year cash flow statement that you have given for the full year, it's versus an EBITDA of almost about on consolidated basis, about INR 440 crore, the operating cash is a significantly lower number. So either we control this with some tightening of our inventory because then otherwise, the incremental capital-to-profit ratio will continue to deteriorate.
No, actually, the volume of the green coffee cost that we are going to maintain at the similar level. But the only factor it is going to come in place is about the value of the green coffee prices. As I told you that, as long as we expect some sort of reduction takes place from the existing level of the GC prices, which definitely is going to reflect in our working capital utilization as well thereby.
Okay. The other question is on the issue of Red Sea. In terms of transportation, what part of our total top line, the impact of freight, is on us?
Actually, if you look at this current financial year as explained by Praveen, there is another expense. The freight charges have no impact till December, till Red Sea issue because everything is under control. Only for the intermittent period of almost around 45-60 days in December and partly in January, there is an impact. But now, everything is softened. There is not much. And also, what we are doing is we are shifting from CNF to FOB, which is not going to reflect in our other expenses the largest increase if any. There is nothing there.
As of today, what percentage of our revenue we don't have FOB?
Kashyap, approximately 70%-75% of our sales are FOB sales.
It's FOB sales. So about 25% is where the impact could.
Whenever, let's say, there is an issue, then that's the portion of the revenue that gets impacted. And I missed on the number of retail revenues that you spoke about in the domestic market. If you can repeat that number.
Yeah. So out of INR 320 crore of domestic sales, INR 210 crore is the retail sales.
Okay, sure. Thank you so much, sir.
One more thing, Kashyap. I just want to add what CFO was talking about to your query about working capital. Absolutely, you are right that working capital requirements have gone up largely because of our volume growth and the value of coffee prices. It's been our endeavor to make sure that we kind of keep it in control. As you rightly said, one of the ways is to do very tighter inventory management at our end. But sometimes at this kind of inflationary trends, we also don't want these smaller suppliers to default on the contract and things like that. So we end up making sure and ensuring that the coffee comes to us. And sometimes it becomes a little challenging to be on a just-in-time inventory.
But having said so, also on the interest cost, we are working out 2, 3 models where we optimize our interest cost outflow by making sure that we are optimizing our borrowings between our entities because we have got an India entity. We have got a Vietnam entity. We have got a Swiss entity. And in the Swiss entity and the Vietnam entity, the cost of capital is much lower than what it is there in India right now. So we are also trying to optimize a lot of them so that we save on a lot of interest outflow that will help our cash flows and our profits, thereby leading to better cash flow in terms of inventory management and working capital management.
Sure. Can I just squeeze in one more question on this CapEx side, if that's okay?
Right. Please, please do so.
Sure, sure. So just one last question. So on INR 1,600 crore of debt, let's say our EBITDA number is about INR 445 crore, which implies about four times debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Now, in case coffee prices don't sort of cool down, maybe they remain where they are. Given our debt-to-EBITDA ratio, in future, can that impact our expansion decisions at all?
So as far as expansion is concerned, we have rapidly expanded, and we are good for 2027, 2028. So next two, three years, we probably are not thinking anything on the expansion side. So that's not a primary thing on our head. The primary thing is how quickly can we scale up our sales so that we get more and more sales and help improve our profitability. And as far as coffee prices, yes, I know for the last two, three quarters, we have been kind of saying that from the next quarter, it should soften up. But at least in this quarter, we can confidently say because the signs are there, the Brazilian coffee prices have already softened by almost $600-$800 per metric ton, which is a good sign because this is pre-harvest prices.
Generally, just before pre-harvest is the price because the availability is low, the prices generally go up. But the fact that pre-harvest prices have come down is a good indicator that post-harvest, the prices should soften up. And also, the Indonesian and the Ugandan crop, they're also on the way. So we are very hopeful that things will settle down, and there won't be an additional burden on our side.
Sure. That's it from my side. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Alok Shah from SKEGEN Management Advisors . Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for giving me this opportunity. Sir, firstly, a data question. Would it be possible to share the volume growth split between India and Vietnam business?
So generally, we don't deep dive into volume. These are a little sensitive information as far as competitive sensitiveness is concerned. So we generally talk about our volumes at an overall group level. Yeah. As I shared to you, we did achieve a 14% volume growth over last year. So that's something that we can share. A little more detail in terms of where the growths are coming and where things are existing, we can do out on a one-to-one call to whatever extent we can.
Sure, sure. The second question was on the Vietnam business. So if you look at the gross margin profile in the Vietnam business, it seems to have gotten impacted much more than what we saw in the India business. So any specific reason that you will allude to for the Vietnam business?
No, it's not any specific reason. The only reason one could attribute is that, as I was telling you, it's correlated to the coffee bean prices. What happens is that you start selling more of these coffees in this kind of a scenario where people are also clients are looking to cost-optimize. Everybody is looking to mean because everything cannot be passed on to the consumers. So in each of the value chain, there are people are looking and pushing for optimization. And that's the time when you start looking for a much baser product so that that can be offered. Very simple logics. In any consumer's industry, when the prices really go off the roof, the base segment products, they start selling more, whether it is an FMCG product like a toothpaste or a shampoo or it is a coffee.
That's the reason what happens is that your proportion of base products or base-priced products increase. That leads to a little squeeze in the overall margins, as one can see.
Got it. Got it. So just to follow up then in that case, so EBITDA per kg, say, for the domestic business would still be in the range of about INR 85 and for the Vietnam would be in the range of INR 125-INR 130-odd?
I think Vietnam, it was a little lower at 110 or 115, if I'm not mistaken.
110, 115. Okay, okay. Sure, sure, sure. And just lastly, since we are doing this CapEx, and what I understand is that typically, you would have contracts for at least six to nine months visibility. But I hear that in the current times, the contract durations are getting shorter. So in that environment, how do you see the business panning out, especially on the top line growth? Because while you retain 18%-20%, but the moment the business has little short-term contracts, the visibility actually gets narrower, right? So why do we still think that 18%-20% is achievable? Thank you.
Absolutely. You are absolutely bang on. The only good thing for us is that if you see the consumption and I'm talking about the end consumption. So the good point is that there has been no reduction in the consumption for coffee. So that's a very heartening side. People aren't drinking less of coffee because of higher prices. And the other good thing is that we are mostly catering to the in-home segment because we do instant coffee, yeah? And instant coffee is largely consumed in home. So in-home consumption, we are not seeing any impact across the globe. So that's one good thing.
Now, coming to the clients, the only thing that clients now do is that instead of very long-term contracts, they kind of hold their positions and say that, "Okay, let me do very short-term contracts," because nobody wants to overcome it in this hope that if the coffee prices come down, it will adversely impact them. So that's the only thing. So the reason why we are still very yes, you are absolutely right. The market has been very volatile. So it's very, very difficult to very earlier, till last year, we could very, very confidently say that we are going to get 18%-20% growth because we had 9-12 months visibility, as you rightly pointed out. However, here, the visibilities have shortened it to maybe four to five months. So maybe that kind of a confidence is not there.
But on the other hand, if the coffee consumption is intact and with our kind of economies of scale and with our kind of ability to do the products that we can, we still are confident that, yes, the contracts would be short-term, but we still would be seeing a decent amount of growth.
Got it. Thank you very much, Mr. Jaipuriar.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Shirish Pardeshi from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi, Praveen. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. I have a few more questions. First, I just want to.
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Shirish. Can you please be a little louder?
Yeah. Am I audible now?
Yeah, you're audible. Yeah.
I have one broad question on volume. Would you be able to share what is the FDC and SDC split for FY 2024? And if you can give specific volume for India and international?
As I mentioned in my last thing, we don't break up volumes to that granularity. Yeah. All that we can say is that the volume growths have been 14%. That's what I can share at this point of time with you.
The split between FDC and.
Yeah, similar. Similar. Because the answer is the same because of our competitive sensitivity. We don't share to that granularity because one would lead to other, and then I'll be forced to share very, very granular numbers with you.
Got it. Can you split at least quarter four volume growth? What has come because there is a deferment of shipment which has happened, 800 metric tonnes. So I'm looking at the quarter four volume growth for a company. And also, if you take out this 800 metric tonnes, what is the volume growth? So leg for leg.
Yeah. Quarter four volume growth is also on the similar level. In fact, it could be a couple of percentage lower only. That is primarily because while we got this deferment, but as we were expecting that we would be able to sell more and more volumes, that did not happen because of these high coffee prices and the non-commitment by the clients to kind of buy at these prices. That's the reason we could not get much higher volume growths as we would have anticipated.
Okay. My second question is on FI25 performance. What kind of growth aspiration in terms of volume value? Because now you mentioned in the beginning that coffee prices are expected to soften. So if the volume is going to be in your aspirational range of 20%+, and if you need to reach that ballpark of 20% EBITDA margin, what are the growth levers you have for FI25?
So okay. Talking about, first of all, value, see, value is dependent on the coffee prices and what average base prices we sold this year and what average because there is a longevity of contract. There's a lot of things that play up. So therefore, let's not focus a lot on the value growth because that's a resultant number that comes up. Coming to volume growth, wherein our EBITDA is dependent on, that is something that, as I was telling in my last answer, that till last year, we were very confident of saying that 18%-20% because that's the kind of visibility we had in terms of our, say, order numbers. Considering the current situation, the order numbers are not very long-term-ish. We are good for next four to five months. But beyond that, there is a little bit of tentativeness from the client side.
They're all waiting for the new crops to come and see where the volumes go. So that's the tentativeness that is there in the market. But having said so, because the coffee consumption is intact, we are not seeing any sort of a demand contraction. So therefore, we are on one side, we are a little tentative saying that what could this number could be, whether this will be 10% or 12%. On the other side, we are confident that because the volumes are or let's say the demand is intact, we still will be able to do that 18%-20%. So yes, there is a range that we are now looking at that if the conditions remain very tough and then the guys are very, very tentative, then we may not be very sure.
But on the other side, if the consumption is intact, we are very confident that we keep maintaining that number. Now, what are the levers? The levers are not very different. The levers are same. There is a certain competitive edge that we bring to the table, which is in terms of economies of scale or our ability to do various products or our ability to reach out to the various corners and nooks and corners of the globe. So those levers remain intact. And that's the reason our confidence comes back, come what may. We will be able to do good business.
Okay. My last question on the new businesses. Last quarter, you mentioned that you have about 4,000 vending machines and about 25%, INR 25 crore revenue. In 210 domestic business, 320 domestic business, what would be the vending machine business, and where do we stand? That's one part. Second, in terms of distribution, South, we had about close to 125,000-130,000. What's the March closing coverage in India and in the South and West?
So first, coming to vending business, vending business is a branded business because it is there with the Continental brand. So it is almost part of this INR 210 crore. And the numbers don't change because that time also, I projected that out of INR 210 crore, probably INR 20-25 crore will be vending business. So that continues. We are aggressively driving that. But yes, we are also making sure that that growth is driven profitably because it's also a challenging segment wherein you have to keep a track that the guys where you install vending business, they end up buying the product also from you because there is a tendency from all the admin guys and the purchase guys to lower down their cost, and they end up buying from other parties, even if the machine is yours and things like that.
So, keeping that in mind, we have evolved a model which is far more stronger in terms of tying it up. But what it means is that we now are not in a big hurry to keep putting up vending machines wherever somebody asks for it. There is a proper contract and things like that that we enter into. So that's about the vending machine business. As far as the distribution is concerned, only in general trade, which is the Kirana stores, we are now at 110,000 outlets total, out of which approximately 85,000 outlets will be only in South India. The rest of 25,000 is divided into northeast and west, where the large chunk is in north and west. East is relatively weak as of now, but understandably so because east is also a very, very weak coffee market.
We have another approximately 700-800 modern retail stores where we are present in. Online space is also doing well for us. Now, we are present in almost all platforms. Earlier, there were certain platforms which are very strong in north, like Blinkit and all, where we are driving very aggressively. We have got into an annual contract with them, and we are driving very aggressive growths there as well. So that's a little brief on the domestic market.
One follow-up. On alternate channel, what would be the contribution for FY 2024?
Which channel?
Alternate, Modern Trade, and e-commerce.
If you add both of them, modern trade, e-commerce, and quick commerce, all of them would contribute to 35% of our business.
Okay. Wonderful. And this would have grown high double digit?
Sorry?
This would have grown on a YoY high double digit or more than that?
Yeah, high double digit. The whole branded business itself grew by almost 40% last year. And we are looking to drive similar growths this year as well.
Okay. Maybe this question, you can answer a little later.
Sir, maybe a question to you.
No, I'm done. Just one last on the insurance update, if you can share, or maybe you can cover later. Thank you. All the best.
Sorry. Just in one line, I'll answer this. The process is still going on. So we haven't got the money. We are still waiting for them to complete their process, and then we'll see. As soon as we get any firm answers, we'll let you guys know.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Rohan Gupta from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good morning, and thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is that your output which you shared on green coffee prices likely to come down. Sir, historically, in the last two to three years, we have seen benefit coming to us from the Brazilian markets under pressure, putting the pressure on Arabica consumption and lower exports, while the Vietnam markets had gained because of the high production of green coffee there. Sir, current estimates and the forecasts indicate that the Brazilian production this year is likely to go up, while the Vietnam may face drought kind of scenario. Do you see that this is going to have a negative impact on our blended realizations or pressure on margins further because of the Brazilian market and the dealers there further dominating the market how it used to be 3-5 years back?
So not really. One of the advantages that we have is that we can import from anywhere. So there is no reason why we can't buy from Brazil. In fact, to give you a little insight, we have our channels connect in all of these coffee-growing systems. So our main advantage is that we can buy from anywhere, wherever we think that the coffee prices are at its best. So it doesn't put us at any disadvantage. And therefore, we don't see any margin contractions. Suppose it happens like this, that the Vietnamese coffee prices still are at a high, and the Brazilian coffee prices drop down, so we'll be happy to buy from Brazil as well.
No, sir, because we have gained a lot of market share in the last two to three years because Russia was the, I mean, earlier, it was a big buyer from Brazil, and.
Yeah. Absolutely. So again, as I have told in many of the things, that it is not just a linear thing that just because Brazil becomes non-competitive, we gain market share. It's also the other things that we bring to table because it is not very, very simple. The other fact is that at current volumes, we probably are the most a company which brings a lot of economies to scale. So to match our kind of economies of scale and prices becomes very, very difficult for other people. The third thing is that selling is a lot about you having your feet and legs on the ground. As I've told this many number of times, that the kind of associations and the kind of associates we now have at all the nooks and corners of the globe, that network also helps us gain that kind of an advantage.
So today, we have all the legs and feet, eyes and ears on the ground. We know what is happening in each of the markets, where the demand is likely to go, what is the kind of consumption patterns that are evolving. So all of this, it's a combination of all of these competitive edges that we bring to the table. And therefore, we are not very worried about the fact that if the Brazilian coffee prices have come down, I'll lose back shares to the Brazilian guys.
Sir, the second question is generally, sir, in terms of margin, we see improvement when the rising price when there is a rising price scenario in the industry. However, we are expecting that the green coffee prices will fall. Definitely, that may lead to, I mean, some boost to consumption. But in general, lower prices or falling price scenario may have a negative impact on our overall working capital and short-term impact on inventories and all. So how we are gearing up for managing that change, I mean, which we are expecting in the falling RM prices.
So first question, only if the raw material prices are constant and you increase prices, your margin will improve. But we work on a pass-on model, which is a cost-plus model, that whatever the price is, we keep a certain amount of per kilo margin, and then that's the price we quote. So therefore, in any of the scenario, risen prices and lowering of prices, we don't see any margin impact on our business. The only impact that we see is that at lower prices, the commitment becomes long-term. At higher prices, the commitment becomes a little short-term from the client side. So that's one. Second is that, in fact, as far as the question comes of managing our working capital and our inventory, we'll be very happy if the prices come down because everything becomes that much more easier. Now, how does it become easier?
On the working capital side, of course, I have to spend less to store the same amount of coffee. Also, in terms of my supplies, I can hold less stocks because in a lowering side, I am very, very confident that there won't be any defaults or any delays. In the rising prices, I'm a little worried that there could be certain defaults from small people, so that I would like to hold more stocks with me rather than keep it at their place. All that challenges are there when the prices are rising. In fact, the situation will improve dramatically for us if the prices were to fall.
Okay. Sir, just next question, if I'm allowed to. We are talking about definitely in the next four to six months with the expected decline in the prices, especially emerging from Brazil and all. So we are not confident about volume growth. Though consumption is not impacted, but we also guided that maybe in the near term, the volume growth can be even a 10%-12% as well. So this is basically because the customers are not giving you commitment, or you see that there is still, I mean, not enough room for pushing this kind of inventory in the market, or you don't want to push the inventory in the market because of the volatility in prices.
So largely because of the customers not giving long-term commitment, not beyond that because everybody becomes a little more tentative at this point of time, and nobody is giving you long-term contracts, yeah? So in fact, two years ago, when the coffee prices were at 2,000 levels, we used to get even two-year contracts that, okay, for the next two years, they used to give us orders, and we would supply. But that situation has changed because of these high prices. Even they, as a customer, wouldn't want to commit for so long because nobody is sure of the coffee prices, which way it is going to go, how much is it going to rise or fall.
That is the reason we are saying that it's not that the confidence is low, but the kind of commitment that we used to upfront give last year or last to last year because we had visibility till 9-12 months is a little easy right now. That's it.
Okay. That's it for me, sir. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Lokesh Manik from Vallum Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning, team. For me, just a couple of questions. One is a clarification. We've seen a correction in gross margins from last year, about 35%-41% this year. Would you attribute this completely to the product mix change that you mentioned that less of freeze- dried, more of spray-dried? Or there are other factors as well?
So 2 things. 1 is very I don't know if you are referring to margins as a percentage of sale. That drops because of the coffee prices going up. So it's actually a virtual drop. So therefore, we generally urge everyone to see in connection to the volume, which means that EBITDA per kilo, that hasn't dropped for us, yeah? There is a little bit of a proportion change in terms of higher FD volumes, but that we have been able to overcome through selling more of small packs and other little better-profit business. So per kg, EBITDA hasn't come down much there. Maybe INR 2, INR 3 or INR 5 here or there. That's it.
Understood. My second question is on the working capital debt. So of the INR 77 crore of interest costs, how much would be attributed to short-term borrowing by the working capital, and how much would be long-term, roughly, if you can share that? And just to follow up on that is, you mentioned your strategy in a volatile environment is to hold onto stocks so that small suppliers don't default. Do you see yourselves passing on this cost of inventory going forward? Is this something that you pre-booked in the terms of interest costs in terms of holding the inventory? Is this a write-off for this year, or do you see this getting priced into your contracts for the following years?
So your voice is not very clear, but I'll try and whatever I could hear, I will try and answer your question. Out of the INR 1,600 crore debt, approximately INR 1,600 crore is long-term debt, and INR 1,000 crore is working capital. Now, working capital is largely dependent on the green coffee purchases that we do. It will depend on the growth of volume of business next year and also the coffee prices. So let's say, on a stagnant price basis, if we are looking at a 15% or a 10% or a 20% volume growth, the working capital will increase accordingly. And the rest of the increase would be coming in because of coffee prices. What decrease is the prices expected to go down? In terms of our inventory management, as I was telling a little while earlier, it will a lot depend on the trend of the coffee prices.
If the trend starts going down, then your ability to hold lower inventory will decrease. But it becomes opposite in an opposite scenario of increasing prices. So that is there. We are also trying to optimize our outflow in terms of our interest costs because of working capital. Because we have three entities in India, Vietnam, and in Switzerland. And of course, outside India, the cost of borrowing is much lesser than the India borrowing. So we are seeing that how we could restructure our working capital so that requirement so that we pay less and less of interest. So that's something that we are actively doing. But yeah, there is a certain level of inventory that we have to hold because it's a large operation now of almost it will become 76,000 metric tonnes. So there is no way that we could avoid holding inventory.
And therefore, our working capital requirement will remain.
Yes, sir. Sir, this question was that can you pass on this cost of inventory holding of this year to the next year to forward your contracts?
No, I don't think so, we can pass on. No, no. We can't pass on from this year to next year because if we have held inventory, we have held inventory, and that cost is our cost. So we have to pay interest on that.
Understood. Understood. That's it from my side. Thank you so much.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Bhargav from Ambit Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question is on your retail.
Sorry to interrupt, sir. May I request you to use your handset?
Yeah. Is this okay?
Yes, sir. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, on this branded business in India, my first question is that at what turnover can we expect the business to start generating double-digit EBITDA margins?
So we already last year, we were at around 7%-8% EBITDA margins. So we are very close to double digits. But that's not we have something that we are actively looking at because we have just scratched the surface. We are very small when we compare ourselves to the large players in the market. There are so many things that we need to do. And we had always we were very aware of this pattern. That's the reason from very start, we had given the guidance that for long years, we'd keep investing in the brand because investing in the brand is a long-term phenomenon. It's not that you invest for 4-5 years, and then you kind of back off. Because the moment you start backing off, not only your ability to grow becomes lesser, but also your brand equity starts dipping.
There is a certain amount of investment that the brand will keep or the brand will require. We will keep doing that. That's something that we are not very aggressively looking at. We have given a group guidance that will remain. But on the branded side, our guidance has been more on top line, which is to keep growing at 30%-40% year-on-year and see that how much of leverage we can take by investing back the profits that we are generating from the brand.
Okay. And sir, now that we've added significant capacity on our OEM side of the business, in the next three to four years, do we see any significant change in terms of our international mix as far as country revenue is concerned?
So it could change because we are looking to make inroads into newer markets. There are certain markets where we haven't been very strong. We had capacity constraints, so we never kind of marketed our products very aggressively there. So there is a certain amount of new markets that we are opening. So obviously, the proportion will change. But having said so, what will happen is that the markets where we have very high bases like the CIS countries, we may grow a little less. Because of the low bases in some of the other markets, the growth will be higher, and they will start increasing their proportions. So yes, definitely, we are looking to the proportions will kind of change in the next few years. Also, in terms of our product profile, the proportions will change. We are looking to drive more of small packs.
We are looking to drive more specialty strong, premium coffee. A lot of it will change. It's an ever-evolving market and category, and we will keep trying to make sure that we also evolve with the market and with the customer needs.
And lastly, sir, in this hyperinflationary environment, is it fair to say that our performance would have significantly improved vis-à-vis our competition? I know it's very difficult to track that metric, but given your market intelligence, is it fair to say that?
Absolutely. I think without taking names, if you were to see the results of all our competitors and all our peer group, you will see that our performance has been significantly, significantly better than most of them. It's very good. The reason I use most and not all of them is because there are certain data I don't know. With a fair bit of confidence, I can say that we have been an outlier amongst this kind of an environment.
Okay, sir. Thank you for your answers, and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Akhil Parekh from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is, are we seeing any opportunities in organic growth given that the coffee prices have increased so sharply? I'm assuming that the smaller players will be feeling more pressure than what we are feeling in terms of working capital and debt position. So are we seeing any sellers out in the industry? That's my first question.
Yeah, Akhil, you know it how the industry works. There will be fallouts because of such kind of a situation. If the situation is becoming tough for us, you can imagine what would be happening to the smaller guys. And without diving in much detail, every other day, we get a proposal from somewhere across the globe. But yeah, we have to evaluate everything on merit and our requirements. We already have expanded a lot. So really, can't say with authority that what's going to happen in the future. But you are absolutely right. The situation is like that.
Sure. Just two questions. Just to clarify, one, you were saying the current capacity of 76,000 tonnes, which we will have after the FDC capacity expansion we have done, that is enough for us to drive the growth retail effort when it's challenged at least, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely.
Okay. And lastly, on the short-term debt position, you mentioned if the coffee prices remain same at current level, the increase in short-term debt will be exactly in proportion to the volume growth. Is that understanding correct?
Yeah, yeah. Absolutely.
Okay. Okay. That's all from my side. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Devanshu Sampat from Avendus Wealth. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, sir. Good afternoon. I have two questions. So just the first one is, would it be right to say that your buyers or the inventory at the retailers is probably lower than average? And if so, if you have the information, can you help quantify it? That is one. And can you also give us some updates on business development in the U.S. and China, any new contracts, new wins?
The first question is about retailers. You're talking about our B2B business?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
Yeah. Very difficult because there is no syndicated data that tells you what kind of inventory they are holding. It's mostly market intelligence that we get, and therefore, we are commenting what we are commenting. So difficult to quantify. But yeah, we know that they all are at very, very thin levels. And everybody is managing as much as possible, literally working on fumes and running the business like that because the kind of price increases and every day, there used to be a $100-$200 increase at some point of time, not very far ago. So therefore, people are not willing to commit. So that's what we can say. Second question you asked was about, sorry, can you just repeat your second question?
Yeah. Major business developments in the U.S. and China.
Yeah, yeah. Business development. So business development, yeah, U.S. is an ongoing process. We are now pretty much growing at a very, very decent pace there. So that development is happening. We are acquiring new clients through our associates there. So that is there. And last time, we spoke about our association with our earlier partners whom we are connecting to make inroads into the Eastern Asian markets like China, Taiwan, etc. So that work is also starting. As you know, B2B takes a little time because we have to, there'll be a market seeding. You'll have to go to all the clients, present them your samples. So it's a little reiterated process till they find you suitable for supply. But again, a lot of work has happened already. We are in the midst of lots of talks with clients.
Soon, we are expecting to see volumes coming on that front as well. A lot of work is happening on the new business development front.
Sure, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Omkar Arora from Eraya Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Most of my questions have been answered. Just one question I would like to ask again. Are we concerned about the debt levels because we are almost there at the peak debt that we expected at the start of last FY?
So frankly speaking, we are not very concerned. The only reason is that, see, our working capital debt is against confirmed orders. So it is not that I am using working capital or taking working capital debt to hold inventory or to produce something which I don't know where will I sell. So because it is against confirmed orders, we are not worried on that front. It's mostly the people outside our organizations who are more worried than what we are. So we are not really worried. Yes, it does show up a little bit of a stress on our balance sheet and all. But that's something that is part of our business. That is how our business operates. So therefore, I don't see any cause of worry on that front.
Any update on the capacity expansion that we could undergo?
Yeah. I gave an update. The update is that all our capacity except the Vietnam freeze-dried capacity is up and running. The Vietnam freeze-dried capacity will be up and running by the month of September and October. That will complete our current expansion process and will be at around 77,000 metric tonnes capacity at that point of time.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be the last question for today due to time constraint. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us. Thank you, Nirmal Bang, for hosting us. We look forward to meet all of you again in the next quarter. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Equities, that concludes this question. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your line.