Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Alm. Brand's Interim Report for the Second Quarter of 2022. My name is Daisy, and I'll be coordinating today's call. You will have the opportunity to ask a question at the end of the presentation. If you would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the call over to your host, Rasmus Nielsen, CEO of Alm. Brand, to begin. Rasmus, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for taking the time to join us on our call on the Alm. Brand Group's Results for the Second Quarter of 2022. As usual, I have with me today our CFO, Andreas, and our IR team with Mads and Michael. This morning, we have published our first consolidated set of numbers that includes Codan, not for the full quarter, but for the two months, May and June. I've been looking forward to this, and I'm excited that we now, for the first time, can provide a detailed picture of what the operational performance looks like for the group. This, of course, means that it's a little more complicated to do the like-for-like comparison to previous quarter performance.
In total, I'm proud of what we have achieved so far, and I think we have a very clear road ahead of us in terms of integration and business development for the quarters to come. Now please turn to slide two with our highlights. Again, this quarter we have maintained a strong momentum in execution, thus succeeding in both further growing our business and taking important steps in integrating Codan into the Alm. Brand Group. After taking over Codan in early May, we put in place the top level of the organization and subsequently the next level of managers was appointed. Further, in mid-June, the new full organization was in place, including physical reallocation of more than 1,800 employees. Also, our first round of significant synergies was realized as FTE reductions were made across the various headquarters support functions.
At the same time, we managed to keep a strong focus on the day-to-day running of our business and thus, Alm. Brand successfully maintained a strong growth also in the second quarter. You should note that growth is in both Private lines and Commercial lines, and that both segments have successfully added to an already positive development in the first quarter. Partnerships are an important growth engine, and we are very pleased with the overall contribution that we see from this channel. For the development in the technical result, the development in the technical result reflects an underlying business that develops satisfactory, although cost inflation is on the rise. Also, I'm pleased with our first earnings result from Codan, and when adding it all together, we get to a solid outlook for the full year.
Consequently, we increase our full year guidance for the technical result based on both a positive development in Alm. Brand and a good contribution from Codan, as well as the estimated effects on synergies. Now please turn to slide three with our financial highlights. The technical result, including Codan, adds up to DKK 337 million compared to DKK 322 million reported in second quarter of 2021. In general, we are pleased with how our business is performing, but we do note that the combined ratio is up against last year, most notable due to a very low number last year because of the expansion of our internal model, as well as tailwind from the COVID-19 on claims. Investment income was a loss of DKK 272 million.
This is a much higher amount compared to what we normally report and reflects both the inclusion of the Codan investment portfolio, which nearly tripled our portfolio, and the fact that financial markets have had a quarter with exceptional price and spread movements. Other costs amounted to DKK 27 million, with net headquarters costs fairly unchanged and including cost to deposit of the large sum of cash earmarked for the purchase of Codan. Execution of the first initiatives to integrate Codan and realize synergies has been swift and has put us ahead of our plan in terms of amount of synergies to flow into the numbers this year. Thus, with special cost of DKK 164 million in the quarter, we are also a little ahead of the amount of resourcing costs compared to what we had expected. We do, however, see this as a positive.
Customer relationships and brand amount related to Codan will be amortized over eight to ten years, respectively, at an annual rate of approximately DKK 360 million. This is of course a non-cash item, and it will have no effect on our dividend capacity going forward. Now please turn to slide five for the operational performance. As said, the group made a technical result of DKK 337 million in the second quarter against DKK 322 million last year. The result from Alm. Brand was DKK 247 million. As such, it comes in somewhat lower compared to last year. However, you should bear in mind that last year we implemented the extension of our internal model to cater for accident and workers' compensation insurance also, which alone generated a one-time positive result of DKK 64 million.
We had the positive effect from COVID-19 amounted to an estimated DKK 20 million, i.e., when stripping those two effects out, the like-for-like comparison should be DKK 247 million against DKK 238 million. A breakdown of the number reveals that claims inflation is gradually becoming more visible, thus we do see average claims costs climbing upwards more than they have done in the previous quarters. Codan's technical result amounted to DKK 90 million for May and June. This is on a stand-alone basis, a very positive number and reflects two months with good performance. We are pleased with the development, but acknowledge that the Codan business come with more volatility compared to what we have in the Alm. Brand. Thus, we need a number of consecutive quarters to showcase that the profitability is fine.
Our investment strategy is a conservative long-term strategy with respect to the overall portfolio exposure. I will, however, argue that this has been a quarter with an extraordinary development on both the bond market, and in light of this, we have had significant and not satisfactory losses on both the free portfolio and the hedge portfolio. For the hedge portfolio, we will expect this to reverse in the long run as claims and bonds exposure net out each other. Positive to note is the development from beginning of July till now. The rebound in the market has more or less taken us back to what we guided back in May, i.e., we are back at a much lower loss level. Please turn to slide six.
Premium income grew organically in Alm. Brand by 5.1% in the quarter, i.e., keeping the high pace from the first quarter with positive contribution from both private lines and commercial lines. Again, growth has been very positive in the commercial lines, and we have seen premiums jump by 6.4% as a result of both continuous influx of new customers and adjustment of prices. Also in the private lines, momentum has been strong with premiums of 3.7% following the initiatives implemented on pricing, customer retention, and value proposition. Inflation has been on the agenda for some time now. We mentioned this the first time more than a year ago, but for some quarters we have seen only modest inflation. What we have seen, we have been able to offset by initiatives to further improve claims handling and procurement.
This quarter we have seen claims inflation ticking up further, and consequently, we have initiated a process to increase premiums for selected customer segments and product categories. Again, our profitability is more important than growth as such. Please turn to the next slide. Weather has generally been nice and mild in the quarter, thus causing only a very few weather-related claims. With our new group exposure, we do, however, have an exposure that reaches beyond what we've been used to have. In this quarter, we had an incident caused by a hailstorm that hit a solar park in the U.S. On the other hand, net large claims stayed at a low level.
Adding weather-related and large claims together gives a total of 5 percentage points in Alm. Brand, and the numbers for Codan add up to 8.9 percentage points, thus resulting in a group number of 6.6 percentage points, which is on par with the reported numbers same quarter last year. Now I turn to slide eight. Combined ratio increased to 85.9, which at first glance is somewhat higher than last year. We have made a small flowchart on the right side of the slide to show the moving parts. In the first quarter last year, combined ratio was reported as 76.1. This is a very low number, partly due to expansion of our internal model and partly due to subnormal activity and claims due to the COVID-19 lockdown.
Here we have adjusted for the delta risk, for the delta in risk margin quarter- on- quarter, and we have adjusted for the COVID-19 effect, thus getting to an adjusted combined ratio of 81.3 for Q2 last year. This number has increased to 82.6 this quarter for Alm. Brand, i.e., 130 basis points, primarily because of a higher average claims cost, which has been partly offset by a positive interest rate impact. The combined ratio in Codan was 90.8, which puts the group in a good position in respect to how we see the journey going forward. Adding Alm. Brand and Codan together leaves the group at a respectable 85.9 for the quarter. Now please turn to slide nine.
For private lines, claims ratio for Alm. Brand was 65.3% against 59.6% same quarter last year, i.e., somewhat high as claims frequency has normalized after lapse of COVID-19 effects on claims, and average claims cost has increased due to inflation, especially in materials and energy. The expense ratio stayed flat at 19.7%, reflecting increased sales provision and investments in partnerships. Codan business had a mismatch with lower claims and high expenses, and a notable combined ratio of 84.1%, which led to a group combined ratio for private of 84.7%. Please turn to slide ten and the commercial lines. The combined ratio increased from 73% to 80.4%, fueled by a sharp increase in claims ratio. What we see here is the effect of what I explained on slide eight.
The full effect of the extension of the internal model last year spills into the number of commercial lines. Thus, we should rather focus on the absolute level of claims, i.e., 66%, which is a very satisfactory number, although we know that average cost for small claims tick up as the inflation pushes prices up on building materials and auto repairs. Organic expense ratio remains flat, reflecting a very tight control on cost development. As expected, the inclusion of Codan adds a portfolio with higher claims ratio and higher expense ratio. Now we will conclude with the synergies and the outlook for the year. Please go ahead, Andreas.
Thank you, Rasmus. Please turn to slide 12. To deliver on synergies is an essential part of our investment case, and I can guarantee you that we will do our utmost to deliver on this. To do this, it is paramount that we get off to a good start, and this we have done. We've had a long period of time to prepare for this while waiting for the final regulatory approvals to take over Codan. Thus, we have been well prepared and already in mid-June we rolled out our new organization. In connection with this, we reduced the headcount in various headquarter functions, and we successfully took out costs in claims handling and IT. Some of it has been low-hanging fruits, and some have been a little more complicated.
In total, these initiatives will deliver synergies of DKK 110 million this year with a run rate of approximately DKK 200 million in years to come. We had an ambition of delivering DKK 90 million this year, thus we are ahead. We have an ambition of delivering DKK 240 million next year. We are closing in on this goal already now. This puts us in a very confident position with respect to delivering on the overall target. Please turn to slide 14 for the outlook for 2022. Our new guidance now includes the expected result from Codan from May to December this year. We upgrade the expected technical results to DKK 950 million-DKK 1,050 million, as we see a positive development in both Alm. Brand and Codan.
For Alm. Brand, we now guide for a technical result of DKK 750 million-DKK 800 million against previously DKK 650 million-DKK 700 million. For Codan we guide for a technical result of DKK 225 million, both including synergies. Further, investment income is expected to be a loss of DKK 100 million. This is unchanged compared to the guidance in May, and a whole lot better than the number we had just reported as markets have rebounded in July and August. Also, our guidance on group costs remains unchanged at DKK 100 million. Adding it all together leads to an upgrade of group pretax results guidance for continuing activities of DKK 750 million-DKK 850 million against DKK 450 million-DKK 500 million previously.
Our earnings guidance is based on an organic increase in growth to 45% against previously 4%, partly fueled by both our partnerships and the continuation of the positive trajectory we have seen in the first half of this year. Adding it all together, we would expect the combined ratio to be at 89, excluding any effect from runoffs for the remaining part of the year, and an expense ratio of 18 reflecting a higher level of costs in Codan. Further, with the initiatives already implemented, we will harvest synergies of DKK 110 million this year, and we expect to incur special costs related to the integration of Codan and restructuring of around DKK 350 million.
On top of this, we will have special costs relating to the carve-out of Alm. Brand Liv og Pension and our share of costs related to the bankruptcy of Gefion Insurance. In total, DKK 80 million. Finally, we will write off customer relations and brand over the next eight to 10 years at a monthly rate of a total of DKK 13 million, thus totaling around DKK 240 million for the full year. Just to make a note, this as well as the restructuring costs mentioned earlier will have no effect on our dividend capacity for the years to come. In total, our guidance reflects a business rapidly transforming into a strong entity. With this, I conclude my presentation and hand over the word to our moderator. Thank you.
Thank you. If anyone would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to remove your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. That's star followed by one on your telephone keypad to register a question. Our first question is from Asbjørn Mørk from Danske Bank. Asbjørn, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you and good morning. A couple of questions from my side. First, relating to your guidance. Basically trying to understand first the DKK 100 million lift to the traditional Alm. Brand. Is it fair to assume that that is the DKK 27 million of runoffs, it's around DKK 60 million of the DKK 110 million of synergies that relates to Alm. Brand. You have the discounting impact, let's call it DKK 10 million, and then of course benign large weather. Basically underlying largely unchanged for the traditional Alm. Brand.
On your Codan guidance, the DKK 225 million, is it fair to assume that there's around DKK 60 million of synergies in that number and that the DKK 75 million of fire claims that you had in Q3 so far is sort of an addition that hits Codan Denmark in addition to normalized large claims? The underlying guidance for Codan Denmark would have been something like DKK 240 million. Is it fair assumptions?
Yeah. Thank you, Asbjørn. Let's start by Alm. Brand. You're right, we total an increase of DKK 100 million. The numbers are maybe slightly different from what you're saying, but they're not far off. A lot of it has to do with a strong July. I would say probably something like DKK 35 million coming in above, coming from a better July than expected. You're also right that in terms of guidance for the rest of the year, we are positively impacted by the still elevated interest rates. Totally, I think you're more or less on target there.
With regards to Codan, I think it's not way off to say that at least I would say DKK 60 million-DKK 70 million coming from synergies. 60 is probably a good guess there. Then you say you mentioned the large claim we had in July of DKK 75 million. That is just to be clear included in this guidance. We've taken that in. We're not, let's say, fully DKK 75 million below what we would expect in an underwriting result for the total of July. We're closer to maybe around DKK 40 million-DKK 45 million taking into account the full picture. You're not far off. I hope that adds clarity.
Basically you say DKK 40 million-DKK 45 million. Basically if you hadn't had these synergies and you hadn't had the fire, Codan, your Codan guidance would have been something like DKK 200 million-DKK 210 million for the full year.
Yeah. That's not far off.
Okay. That's very helpful. A question on your underlying combined ratio in private, which deteriorates quite a lot, both in own brand, traditional 450 basis points. I also see quite a deterioration in Codan Denmark and of course on a pro forma level for the group. Just trying to understand, you mentioned motor, so you mentioned building. I guess travel has an impact here as well, but what is it really that is sort of going on here on the underlying in Q2?
Yeah. Thank you, Asbjørn. I think we have to split it a bit in Codan and Alm. Brand, because you can say I would say in Codan the underlying claims is actually varying quite favorably. That is to a large extent coming from you can say the increase is coming to a large extent from costs rising. A lot of that having to do with the investments they've had, especially in partnerships around claims picking. So I'd say that is probably the main driver in the realized numbers for that.
If you go to the non-life side, what we're seeing this quarter is, let's say at least the first indications of our average claims picking up a bit in certain lines, especially in property and to some extent also auto. That is, let's say, the main negative driver for the underlying. I think as you're fully aware, we had some COVID in the numbers last time. You can say if you fill that out, we're a bit up about 2% on the underlying combined quarter-on-quarter. Some of that is coming from these beginning in rising claims.
We should probably also keep in mind that Q2 for 2021 had a very sound level of 78% underlying combined, and there will be some fluctuations.
All right. That's helpful. Just mentioning the larger claims and then of course and general claims inflation you're seeing and then the repricing that you're pulling through now. Could you sort of quantify what kind of repricing measures you're doing? I guess there's a very limited effect from this in 2022, but maybe you can guide a little bit on what we should expect for 2023 from this.
Yeah. I think it's a bit early, Asbjørn, to be very specific in terms of where we'll end up in 2023. Maybe to give you sort of a flavor, you could say that I mean, we will be doing selective increases in certain lines. It's primarily property and it is to some extent also auto. It's across all brands. The let's say the deficit, so to say, and the need for price increases will vary across brands. There is this, as I know you're aware of, there's also a difference in how we have been indexing in Codan and Alm. Brand.
The need for price increase will be relatively higher in Codan than it is in Alm. Brand. It's something we already started now, and it'll be rolling out through the next couple of months. I don't think we are ready to give you any firm estimates for the effect for next year yet. You are right in the conclusion that it will have limited impact for the current year.
Okay. Is that just a final question on my side related to this? Is the repricing in Codan part of your the synergies guidance or is that a commercial synergy that you have not included? If I may add to that, you say you have quicker realization of synergies, obviously investing more also now. Have you identified new areas or new synergies or is it basically just front loading the synergies that you had already identified a year ago?
Let's start with the synergies and then take the repricing. Synergies is the, I would say we are continuously sort of developing the plan, and we find more synergies as we go along. The plans for what will happen in coming years are being more detailed every month. The fact that we've been able to realize more synergies than expected right now has mostly to do with the fact that there was simply a larger potential when we got in there, also with the developments until yeah, until we took over.
We had a bit more through the organizational changes than we had originally planned for at this point in time. We simply were able to find more, a bit more. We're not ready to say what that means for the targets in coming years. We'll be getting back to that. Your question on repricing, Asbjørn , what was that specifically? I just lost it.
I just, you said that you will be repricing more in Codan than in own brand. I was just wondering whether that was part of the DKK 600 million of synergies that it sounds like you guys more, maybe a little bit more than 600 now, but that's maybe me concluding too early. Anyway, just to ask, basically the question was just whether that was included in your synergies or whether that's a commercial synergy that is not included.
This is not included in the synergies. This comes on top, and it's because of also due to the fact that we are seeing a different, to be fair, a different claims pricing than we have been. That's coming on top of the synergies.
Just to add, Asbjørn, we, I mean, we don't factor any top-line synergies at all, at this point in time.
Exactly. That was why I asked. Okay. That's great. Thanks a lot, guys.
Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if anyone would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question is from Jakob Brink from Nordea. Jakob, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot. I hope you didn't. I came in a little late, but the very strong growth in corporate Codan, could you maybe put a few more words on that, please? What has happened? It seems like a very steep acceleration during Q2. Then also on premiums, the guidance for the full year of DKK 9.3 billion-DKK 9.4 billion. If I look at the premiums through the year of last year for Codan and assume roughly the same sort of split per quarter and putting in your 4%-5% growth for own brand standalone, I get closer to DKK 9.5 billion than DKK 9.35 billion.
Is there anything unusual in the Q2 numbers, or is there any reason to expect lower growth or lower premiums even in the second half of the year, or is it just you being cautious?
I'll try to answer that as well. Let's start with your question on the strong growth in Codan. There's a couple of factors in there. I would mention two main ones. I would say that partnerships and Privatsikring in the private lines of Codan is a, let's say, the major contributor to the quarterly growth. The momentum is really quickly picking up now. The increases in written premium that have been building and now beginning to be seen for real and also in the earned premiums. On top of that, we have also commercial lines increasing significantly.
A lot of that is driven by the rate increases we have mentioned earlier, specifically in technical lines, where they have it's a very hard market, and they have for certain larger customer been able to reprice that quite significantly. A final point on that, premium growth in Alm. Brand Group will from the part coming from Codan be a bit more volatile going forward quarter- on- quarter. That has to do also with the way that premiums are earned and timed in especially the technical lines area where you can see projects stepping in and going out as they either begin or completion or they go out completely out of our group and expire.
We will also be looking into a bit more volatility on single quarters than we've seen before. To your last question, I can see what you're getting at. It's hard to maybe specifically comment on what exactly the DKK 150 million in change will account for. I will say that I think you're right in assuming that the 4%-5% is probably something that we feel quite comfortable with at this point in time.
Basically what you're saying is that the one reason for not being at DKK 9.5 billion is the volatility you just spoke about on the commercial lines in Codan, that you could have Q3 or Q4 that is somewhat lower.
No, I know what you're asking.
You have the last thing, Jakob. Sorry, could you repeat that?
No, I was just saying, basically again, if you take sort of starting point with Codan Q2 numbers, you have had it for two months, and then take another six months of roughly that level, and taking 4.5% growth in Alm. Brand standalone, I get to DKK 9.5 billion premiums, not DKK 9.3 billion-DKK 9.4 billion. My question is just, is that due to the fact what you just spoke about, that we should expect higher volatility in premiums from Codan corporate business, that you could basically see a drop in Q3 and Q4?
That would be one of the explanations, yes.
Okay. As to how clear is that pattern? I guess you must know what profits are maturing in the second half of the year. Have you taken that into-
It's not something that comes from one day to the other. We have, if we're looking for the next six months, we have a quite good picture of what we expect the earned premiums levels will be. We are able to forecast this quite precisely, at least in the near term.
Okay. Thanks a lot. Makes sense.
Thank you. As a final reminder, if anyone would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. We have a follow-up from Asbjørn, so I will unmute him now. Please go ahead. Hi, Asbjørn, I have unmuted your line. Please go ahead with your follow-up.
Thank you. Just to follow up on it from my side, basically just looking at your Codan Denmark, the technical lines business. Now you have a large claim in Q2 in the U.S. from solar panels. Q1 it was wind turbines, offshore wind turbines. I guess if the fire claim in Copenhagen in Q3 is more of a natural thing for a company like yours. Basically just wondering what kind of thoughts you have around the more exotic parts of the Codan Denmark exposures, and whether you think that fits into the future Alm. Brand Group.
Yes. Rasmus here. It's a question we have heard before. I think our answer is actually still the same, that we will remain with the business that has come in from Codan, both Technical lines, Marine and large industry. We're reviewing it, of course. We are putting pressure, further pressure on the organization to make it even more profitable rather than grow. That is what we are aiming for at the moment.
All right. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. We have no further questions, so I'll hand back over to the management team for any closing remarks.
I just want to say thank you for listening in and have a nice day.