Earnings Call: Q1 2020

May 14, 2020

Hello, and welcome to the Amelipan Interim Report 2020. Today, I'm pleased to present Lars Holm. Please begin. Yes. Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us on this call on Ambran's results for the 2020. As said, my name is Lars Holm, and I'm heading the Investor Relations department at Elmbrand. And with me today, I have CEO, Vasco Spaner Nielsen and Senior IR Officer, Mikael Goldarsen. As usual, we're going to take some time to highlight the results for this quarter. And after this, we're going to hand over the phone to you so we can have a Q and A session. And with this, I hand over the microphone to you, Arsen. Thank you, Lars, and good morning, everybody. This morning, we announced a set of results in line with our expectations. And as such, we are pleased with the development in all our business areas. It's been a quarter with a busy agenda, and we have made progress in adjusting to the new setup that we introduced January. But it's also been a quarter with challenges and changes to our operations as Denmark has been partially locked down from mid March. I'm proud to say that our organization have met the challenges in a positive way and that Allentbrand has successfully serviced our customers in a time when they needed us the most. Please turn to Slide two. The first quarter of the year was satisfactory. And although group profit amounted only to million, the underlying development in each of the three business areas were in line with our expectations. Despite all the turmoil in the quarter, the majority of our business was stable and in accordance with our forecast. Denmark was partially locked down on March 11, which triggered a number of effects on our business. But all in all, this only had a little direct effect on underlying earnings in the quarter. However, our business is not shielded from the effects of COVID-nineteen, but the turmoil both the turmoil on the financial markets and the effect on the credit ratings in the loan portfolio have hit our earnings, most as seen in the investment result in securities portfolio in the non life insurance. On the internal agenda, focus has also been on a gradual implementation of the strategic initiatives announced late January, and we are making steady progress on this with the ultimate goal of creating a more customer centric platform. Overall, guidance for the full year is unchanged compared to the updated announcement on March 19. However, we're now able to provide a little extra detail on how we see earnings develop in each of the business areas. Finally, with all the turbulence in both macroeconomics and business environments, I would like to stress again that our business is operating in a relatively stable setting. We are not unaffected, but the major part of our operation is pretty resilient to what is happening right now. Thus, I'm confident and committed to our plan to reach our ambitious financial targets by the '2. Please turn to Slide three. On this slide, I have summarized and quantified how we see the implications from COVID-nineteen in each of our three business areas. Non life has seen change in insurance claims after the lockdown of Denmark. Travel restrictions were put in place and activity in general has been reduced. Consequently, we witnessed a large increase in travel insurance claims. And when comparing before and after March 11, then the number of claims more than doubled. But almost everything else went down. Claims on motor insurance, on commercial accident, on private accident and so on, all went down. And in total, the number of daily claims after the lockdown was down at an estimated 12% compared to the March before the lockdown. In total, the net effect on earnings for the quarter has been very much partly because of a higher average cost per accident on some of the insurance categories. The investment portfolio in non life has taken a hit of approximately DKK100 million in the quarter, a combination of losses on equities and bonds. In the Life business, the financial markets, of course, also affected investment results. The investment portfolio consists primarily of bonds and the equity exposure is relatively modest. Thus, the impact on the policyholders' investments has been relatively low and the bonus rate, although down 3.3 percentage points, is still at a high level. Banking is affected in various areas. Trading income, investment return and write downs on loans are all directly hit by the situation. So although underlying business is not affected to any large degree, these areas have a negative impact of around CHF45 million in the quarter. When adding it all together, we get to a total negative impact in the quarter of around DKK150 million, with the biggest single driver being the development on equity and credit bond prices. But as you know, April has seen a positive development with a number of key markets regaining more than 50% of the losses. And now please turn to Slide five. The non Life business made a pretax profit of 25,000,000 in the first quarter of the year. The technical result amounted to DKK 131,000,000, and the combined ratio was 90.4% with underlying performance in line with our expectation. In total, major claims and weather related claims was in line with what we have witnessed the previous quarters, but not as low as in Q1 twenty nineteen. As mentioned, the lockdown of Denmark had an impact on the number of claims, but not enough to translate into a real positive effect on the bottom line in the quarter. Please turn to next slide. Premium income grew by 3.7%. And as you see in the graph shown on the right side of the slide illustrated by the dark bars, this is a very good number compared to previous quarters. Our premium income is split between private and commercial customers, almost fifty-fifty. And especially for the private customers, we have successfully increased premium income, although we continue to see a fierce competition. A lot of efforts is put into shaping our products so that they better support individual and personalized advice to our customers. This has been well received. Further, we have made some price adjustments to specific parts of the portfolio where claims have been high compared to the premiums with the aim of assuring that the price reflects the risk. This is an ongoing process. But we will need to adapt to any softness in the market due to general changes in the economy, not at least due to COVID-nineteen. Thus, you should not expect the same positive development in the coming quarters. Please turn to Slide seven. The claims ratio excluding run up gains was 74.7% against 69.3% in the 2019. Although higher, we must remember that the 2019 number was exceptionally low. The expense rate was 70.6 as the FX from the cost savings program has started to kick in. And all in all, this leads to a combined ratio, excluding run up gains of 92.3%, which is in line with our expectations. The run up results amounted to a gain of DKK 26,000,000, which corresponds to almost 2% points against 2.8 points in the first quarter of 'nineteen. On this, we have seen positive results from building, accident and motor insurance but continued negative impact from the workers' compensation insurance. Unfortunately, we continue to experience a higher number of cases from the labor market insurance at a higher than expected claim, which are the reason for the small negative runoff again in Q1. We are obviously not satisfied with this development and will take measures to fix this. The combined ratio, including runoff gains amounted to 90.4. Please turn to Slide eight. Weather related claims amounted to $54,000,000 or 4% points and as such, within normal range, but somewhat higher than the very low level of only $29,000,000 back in Q1 'nineteen. Although snow has been absent this year, then we have had a very wet and windy February, which has cost somewhat. Major claims amounted to $51,000,000 or 3.8 percentage points and thus at a low level, but again not as low as seen back in Q1 twenty nineteen when the claims were only DKK 31,000,000. In total, the major and weather related claims amounted to DKK 105,000,000 against only DKK 60,000,000 in the 2019. Compared to the previous quarters, this is a number pretty much in line pretty much in the middle of the range of what we have seen, and we are pleased with that level. Please turn to Slide nine. The combined ratio for private customers remains at a satisfactory level of 87.8, I. E, flat against the first quarter of 'nineteen. The number is, as stated in the beginning of my presentation, affected by high claims within travel insurance of around CHF 10,000,000, which corresponds to an increase in the claims ratio of 140 basis points. But on the other hand, marginally lower claims ratio on the other insurance claims as activity and accidents has been affected by the lockdown. Run off gains were at a healthy 4.3% and also the expense ratio had a positive development as the effect of the reduced overheads goes through the numbers. And then please turn to the last slide of non life insurance, Slide 10. For the commercial customers, the claims ratio is significantly up against the first quarter of 'nineteen. But when comparing to the previous two quarters, then we actually see that the level has stabilized following a return of major and weather related claims being more in line with normal, I. E, this accounts for close to half of the increase. Further, the run up results is negative against this quarter, primarily due to the workers' compensation schemes, and we are addressing this by imposing the necessary price increases to ensure that pricing and risk is balanced. The expense rate is fairly unchanged and at a satisfactory level. And now please turn to the life insurance on Slide 12. Pretax profit for the first quarter of 'twenty amounted to DKK 32,000,000, which is both very satisfactory and a bit better than our expectation. The result reflects a fine development in the expense and risk results, which amounted to DKK 20,000,000 against DKK 9,000,000 in Q1 'nineteen, and the technical result then amounted to DKK36 million. The result on investments allocated to equity amounted to a minus DKK4 million following the turmoil on the financial markets, and the return on the policyholders' investments assets was a relatively small loss on 2.3%. Consequently, the bonus rate was reduced by 3.3 percentage points to a new level of 12.9%, which in the current economic environment is still seen as a satisfactory lever. Now I'll move into slide 13. Premiums totaled $25,000,000 in the quarter and is made up by $246,000,000 in regular premiums and $178,000,000 in single premiums. The growth in regular premiums was 5.8% and we believe it could even have been a little higher if not for the COVID-nineteen impact and the lower rate on policyholder savings. And now I'll turn to our last segment, Banking, on Slide 15. Core earnings in the bank amounted to DKK16 million in the first quarter of the year compared to DKK11 million in the first quarter of 'nineteen. This is a satisfactory development that affects both some of the effects from the savings program put in place back in January and the improvement of net interest and fee income following the changes introduced at the end of at the start of the year. So we have both an income effect and a cost savings effect. But included in the number is also a drop in trading income following the negative development on the financial markets. It is still quite early to quantify the scale of impact from the COVID-nineteen, but we have made a further write down of CHF30 million on our loan portfolio to reflect a worsening in the economy. On the other hand, we have also made a reversal of write downs as some of our customers have had an improvement in the economic situation, primarily in the agricultural sector. Hence, we have more or less balanced the write downs in the quarter. All in all, we estimate that the total amount of write downs reflect a prudent estimate on the quality of the loan portfolio, and we are pleased that most of our customers are private households. Total investment portfolio earnings were hit by the market turmoil and came out at a loss of DKK14 million. In total, the quarter generated a pretax loss of CHF 8,000,000. And without the COVID-nineteen number, this would have been some CHF 45,000,000 better. And now please enter Slide 16. Business volume is up 6% compared to the first quarter of 'nineteen, but flat against year end 'nineteen. Again, it is very early to read anything out of the numbers regarding the potential COVID-nineteen impact. So far, we have seen only a relatively low number of customers who have applied for additional funding due to COVID-nineteen, but we will, of course, be monitoring this closely over the months to come. Please turn to Slide 17. The negative result in the bank translate into a negative return on negative for the quarter. But again, we see a positive development in the underlying business. Back in February, the bank raised CHF 150,000,000 in an unsecured six year senior loan to cover the phased in net supplement. Solvency is now at a robust level at 22%, up from 20% a quarter ago. And then please turn to the last slide, Slide 19. Our guidance for 2020 is still that we expect a consolidated ordinary pretax profit of DKK $550,000,000 to 700,000,000, excluding any runoff results for the rest of the year. The range that we provide for the guidance is wider than normal as we still see uncertainty on especially how the investment results will be. And as usual, we provide a guidance on each business area. For Non Life, we expect pretax profit of DKK500 million against the guidance given back in January of DKK525 million. However, with the losses that we have had on the investment portfolio, profit before tax is expected to be lower. The base assumption is still that we will achieve a combined ratio of approximately 91%. For Life, we expect pretax profits of $100,000,000 no changes to what we have guided before. And again, just underlying that we see a lot of transparency and predictability on this one. For banking, we expect a pretax profit of 80,000,000 against our previous guidance of CHF 100,000,000. Improvement in the underlying business gives us some comfort, but the net impact of COVID-nineteen on write downs and return on investments makes us lower the number. And other, I. E, primarily headquarter costs will be at around million, reflecting no extraordinary items expected here. In total, our guidance reflects a business with all major parts moving as we would like it to, but not forgetting that the situation with COVID-nineteen is affecting all of us. With this, I conclude my presentation and hand over the word to our moderator. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Adrian Merck from Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Yes. Good morning. Couple of questions from my side. First, on Non Life, your underlying combined ratio deteriorates 140 basis points year over year. And you mentioned in the report that discounting is largely flat. The impact is nonexisting, so to speak, in year over year. And you said that COVID-nineteen is also very manageable, the impact on your non life. So what's actually happening here with the one hundred and forty bps underlying deterioration? Could you give us a little bit of the flavor on that? Yes. Good morning, Esperan. Yes, of course. We have a we are of course, we have the impact of the travel insurance. We have some impact from February for the with the weather, where the weather also somehow hit the underlying development. And then we have some impact from the workers' compensation as well. And when you're adding all this up and then you take the the cost you pass from from lower car insurance and and these things, then then we we see this negative impact. But I guess your travel insurance that you mentioned is one of the issues, I guess that would be offset by the motor, etcetera, meaning that that is included in the largely neutral impact that you have said COVID-nineteen had. Correct? Yes. It's almost neutral. And then it's the this weather related part from February. We actually got quite some hit in the in the in the the also in the underlying ratio there of around $10,000,000 Okay. Fair enough. The travel insurance claims that you have booked in Q1, does that include people that have filed for claim for Easter but have done that in March? No. It is like that. When you file a claim, then you get the the the you can say the claim only raises two days before you leave should have left for vacation. So it doesn't do that. It is only what is five covering travels in in March. Yeah. And it's the same with the summer holiday. You could also already now make a claim for the summer holiday, but we only take it into account two days before as we don't know if the borders are open. And if they do, then we don't have to to cover. Okay. And the the 20,000,000 reinsurance own coverage that you have, does that cover the entire period, or how does that work? It covers the period until I think it was until we have said until somehow April. But what we see in the figures until now, it is not really into any game. So if you get a lot of summer travel claims, if the borders remain closed, that will not be covered by the reinsurance? No. No. They will be covered by a new reinsurance. So you need to see it in different parts. And that's also 20,000,000? Yes. Okay. Okay. Alright. And then then you mentioned motor TPL. You say that the average claim is rising. Could you elaborate a bit on what is it actually that you're seeing here? What we have seen here is small developments, but still receive less cars on the streets. But when they crash, they drive a little bit faster than we have seen else. And then the insurance we have to pay off is a little bit bigger. It's nothing really significant, but we can see some changes in the in the way accidents are are done, so to say. Okay. Fair enough. If I then may turn to the bank, the €30,000,000 charge you make on COVID-nineteen, how have you estimated that? What we did when the crisis started is we took a review on we stressed the whole portfolio we have in the bank with a low stress, middle stress, and really high stress level. And of course, we need to take into account what we have, you can say, in our provisions already. And when doing all this, then we ended up with saying that we need a a COVID nineteen, you can say, resolution of around 30,000,000. And and that is related to the central banks, the scenarios for for the Danish economy for 2020? Yeah. I would say more or less it is. Okay. And it's I I think, actually, it's very much in line with what you see on the bigger bank. We have a very small portfolio compared to that. So if you add up, it's very much in line with what we see elsewhere. Sure. Sure. And then actually, the the twofold question, but but on the bank's operating side as well. I mean, you if I take the pre provision, including the impact from old portfolio, you're still loss making. I know that you say that the trading was impacted negatively Q1, but let's just say that it's more or less plusminus zero. If you look at the operations before loan losses, how I mean should we expect this to improve the next couple of quarters? Or are you expecting reverses of loan losses to sort of drive you to the $80,000,000 profit for the full year? No. I would say yes, sorry. No, go ahead. Just No. Just continue as when you had to. That was a little bit tricky. Well, yes. I mean, it was just because then your guidance you lowered your guidance by by 20,000,000 for the full year, but but you said that the impact from the bank from COVID nineteen was 45,000,000. So I guess, increasingly, something is doing better. Yeah. No. What we what we have lowered our guidance is 80,000,000, and that is that is with, you can say, a zero development on the on loan losses. So so the guidance is lowered with 20 mostly due to the impact of of the trading activities and the loss in on the investment portfolio. So so the underlying business should add up to the 80,000,000. We expect them to do that. So you the $80,000,000 is assuming zero loan losses for the full year? Yes. So we should expect okay, okay. Fair enough. Okay. So when you had the guidance of $100,000,000 before, was that then implicitly assuming reversals? Or was it also zero losses? It was assuming zero losses also. Okay. So it's really the trading effect? Yeah. Okay. Is it the is it the trading take, and I hope you also noticed that we have increased the top line somehow. Sure. So that was, I guess, your plans also. Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. Okay. And then on on my final question on capital. Capital model, excess capital, how should we look at that? Yeah. Hi, Ashton. This is Lars from here. And and are you on a group level now, or are you specifically in the bank? On a group level. Yeah. Well, we are we well, we have basically, we view that we have sufficient capital. And if you refer to the dividend, we have said that we're now gonna we have postponed the decision to the autumn, whether or not we pay out a dividend for 2019. But our general view is that we are very robust when it comes to capital. Was that has to be effect? Yeah. But the capital model Okay. But well, okay. Yeah. We're disclosing that any longer. We have we've changed that. So now we have a dividend policy that we're to pay out at least 70% of our annual result, and that's still the case. So you're not gonna be as as loyal or whatever you wanna call it to to the excess capital model anymore. So if there's excess capital, that will not necessarily be paid out to shareholders today in the short term. We're not ruling that out. What we are saying, at least 70% of our earnings is going to be paid out. And as you remember, the intention for 2019 was actually to pay out a bit more than 70%. We actually paid out even though we changed that along with the Q4 results. So we are definitely going to be very sorry, very strict when it comes to our capital management. That's not gonna change. But but our policy is that we now have a dividend policy instead of having this capital modeling by each quarter, basically. But but why why are you not disclosing the capital model anymore? Yeah. Because we changed that. So so we wanna have a more, shall we say, steady capital management linked to the payout bridge instead of cost cost because you have this fluctuation in capital model that that that that they everything, yeah, sort of wanna get out of and still communicate on a more steady basis with a with a dividend rate. Okay. But then I guess my question is really, so the general view on how you look at your capital and your requirement, that will still be the same more or less? You're just going to look at the regulatory requirement? I mean, it's gonna be your own requirement and that the levels of start Yeah. True. Yeah. Yeah. So it's a minimum a minimum of 70%. The last 30% is used for increase in premiums and all that. Yeah. And if that's not the case, then we're definitely gonna look into to to how to dispute that as as as dividend as well. Okay. Fair enough. That was all from my side. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Thank you, Ashwin. And the next question comes from the line of Pierre Grondahl from SEB. Please go ahead. Yes. Thank you. First of all, not a much a question more. A question whether we can get some information. Yes. You are finally dividing in the bank the NII and commissions out on two lines. Thanks for that. Any chance that we can get the the split for 02/2019? Will it come in the financial figures that I can see hasn't been uploaded to your home page yet? Yeah. It will. Otherwise, we'll make sure that we know we knew that you were gonna ask that, Pierre, so we're definitely gonna send it to you. But the the intention is that it's gonna be included in the in the figures on our website. When will the when will the the OTS be uploaded? Today. Otherwise, I'm gonna send it to you guys. Perfect. Thank you. Remortaging activity this quarter, how large was the positive impact? It was minor. Only a couple of millions in the bank. Couple of millions. Perfect. When I look at your P and C cost, you are targeting a 16% full year cost ratio. We saw quite limited impact of the lower cost burden in the first quarter. If you should read that, that implies that your underlying run rate will be more like 15.5% for the remaining part of the year. Is that a fair assumption? About yeah. The the 60% is our goal for 02/2022. Okay. That's 2020. So so and that's gonna be a a gradual decrease in the cost ratio towards 2020. Okay. Apologies. I went a bit too fast. On the But, Pierre, just to be clear, but, of course, we expect the the the cost side is exactly in line and a little bit lower than we have in our budget. So it's clearly following the path we have estimated for the year, and it will the percentage will, of course, decline throughout the year as normal, so to speak. I guess it would be fair to assume that we will see a visible decline in the second second quarter where you have the first clean quarter after the Yes. The cost cutting program. Yeah. Okay. A bit low. Yes. Yeah. On travel insurance, you mentioned reinsurance for over 20,000,000. I don't know. Is that mentioned anywhere in the reef, or I don't know where that information is coming from? Yeah. Can I get the figure? I didn't get the figure. Try the 20,000,000 for own account on travel insurance. I don't see that. That's the reinsurance pro sorry. That's the that's the reinsurance program. So whenever they are hitting 20,000,000, we're gonna the rest will be captured by reinsurance. But for this quarter, we have expenses of 10,000,000 usage travel. And you said that this is not a program that covers on a vendor, that covers by time, meaning if we don't see any changes to the current lockdown, then you will still have to pay for a new reinsurance program running into the summer holidays? Yes. It is like in a first event was there mid March when the Prime Minister said, now we close down. And then she expanded it by two weeks, and we said that is how we see it as one event. And then as of now, we see the next thing coming as a second event. But, of course, it's up to be discussed with the reinsurance company. It's not really stated in the policy how how to cope with these things. But I guess up until now, there haven't been a second event. The second event would be if they lock the the borders again. Yes. Exactly. And then people would be allowed to travel? Yeah. Oh, okay. On life, I assume the very strong risk result that is a lucky quarter. Is that fair to say? Longer longer, can say in the in the health part, it is a little bit you know, it's a little bit up and down. I would say it was up with 10,000,000 in this quarter. That's what I'm addressing. That was basically not this quarter. Yeah. But that's also why we don't increase the expectations for 2,000 Fair Fair enough. On the buffer that still looks very, very strong, can you share with us what was the trough level of your buffers when we had the trough of the market? Yes. But I think you should see in a different way. When we were in August when we experienced also the big depreciation in share prices and all that, then we took some measures and we made some, you can say, some activities within the portfolio in order to ensure that we will not see such a big decline another time. And of course, it costs a little bit on the upside, but then recovers more on the downside. So we have not seen a real worsening in the situation. We have been around the level where we are now. So so so from yeah. During it has not been any worsening in the in the last two weeks of March around this level. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Interesting. On the prior year gains, you said that you would take measures to fix the losses on your one off on your workers' compensation. Yeah. That seems like you will hike current year's prices, but I guess that will not remove the losses on the OTS. Is it simply a question of that you have basically reversed two last claims reserves previously, and now you have basically maybe even slightly under under reserved on this business line? No. No. I understand your question. One, in terms of pricing, then we were just about to pull the button when the COVID-nineteen started. And then we said, we cannot do this to our customers, increase prices right now. So we have to wait a little bit until the market gets back a little bit more to normal. And then definitely, we will increase prices on workers' compensation. In terms of our reservations, it was a small hit, I think, this March when this the motor insurance thing they came back with that they had fixed more of these claims. And then we said, okay, we take them now and we don't use what we have on the shelf, so to say, from this restoration. We are not we still have things. Otherwise, we should have made a one off when we got into this new situation with higher claims, and we haven't done that. So so so we we we are somehow well reserved there still. And it goes a little bit we need to expect that now, and then it goes a little bit up. It goes a little bit down on detailed workers' conversation. Yeah. That's how it is. Okay. Finally, on the payout. Assuming you end up having too strong pressure from iOPA and Danish FSA not to pay pay out anything for 02/2019, Should we expect that you're basically entering your excess capital at the ATM in 2021 as you have done historically? Yes. That was very clear. Thank you. Yeah. The next question comes from the line of Martin Klager Spier from Carnaby. Please go ahead. Hey, and thank you. My first question goes on premium growth. You report 3.7% in the quarter. What is the targeted rate for full year 'twenty? I think we have we don't have a special target year, but we internally, we think about 3%. And even though we had a good start up, I think it will be very tough under these circumstances to reach 3%, but I will but I would say we have made a good start of the year, and we are very happy with that. Okay. Okay. And then my second question comes on on it's back to to reinsurance. You say 20,000,000 and assumed that there's still some 10 millions to go on till you reach the the 20,000,000 threshold. But but and then you can refer those claims back to the lockdown date. But what if what if what if there aren't any what if the borders are open, but there aren't any flights? Why wouldn't that be the same why wouldn't that go back to the same lockdown date? No, Bob. But you yeah. That we have to see, but but then it's about who who who's sitting with the who's sitting with the problem end of day, if I understand that. If if the government changes the ruling that now everything is green instead of red, then as such, we are not covering. Okay. Of course, if the flight if there is it is a matter of what what does the, you could say, airplane companies do at that level, and and that we have to think about when we reach into that. So it's a matter of what what is happening within the last forty eight hours before actually have to take off to to to to what you what you have to do. Okay. But just just just just help me clarify here because I so so let's say I book a I book a a ticket with Norwegian and Norwegian doesn't fly and but they're not able to refund me the money, then you guys still covered. Right? As such? Yeah. Yeah. You're right. Then we we will cover. Okay. And then we'll have a claim on Norwegian. Yeah. But they're never gonna pay that. Right? So I I don't know. In case they're gonna be on the book I don't know if I think if they exist, then they have to cover. You had to have my date of yesterday in the European parliament saying that the the the airplane companies had to cover had to cover if they want to continue to exist. Okay. Okay. And then then my final question on on on combined ratio going into q two in particular where you have seen where you get the full effect of the lockdown in April, what should we expect? What are the moving parts between travel, motor, accident, etcetera? Yeah. That is a good question, Martin. I can, of course, not answer that exactly. But in April, we have seen less cars on the street and all that as you have seen yourself, and and there will and there are some some positive effects. Then the question and then and the same in the, of course, in the investment part as well is also positive. But but I would say that I'm a little bit more curious to see what is happening in May now when people are are getting back to to work and all that that I think things will stabilize quite quickly. At least we see a tendency to to that is it's actually only the travel things that are really down, but but but the other ones are are coming back to not a normalized level, but getting closer to a normalized level Okay. Okay. So when you when you buy a try it by year end '20 report, your your segment business line breakdown on your different parts in your nonlife insurance, and you see that there's there could be potential supernormal profit in in certain business lines. Is that something that you are afraid of, or do you fear that there are gonna be any sentiment for insurers to either pay back premiums or reduce twenty twenty one premiums? Or how should we think about that? No. No. Not at the moment, Martin. Not at the moment. I think we'll except for the travel insurance, I think we'll get back to a normalized level quite quickly. And we haven't had any customers really asking for what you are talking about. There could be I think there could be some competition and maybe also a little bit more investigations for some of the corporate companies on what they pay in premiums. But as we're covering the lower part of the segment, I think it's mostly the real big companies that will have the spend the time and effort to get into this. Okay. Okay. And then just just finally on on following up on Peter's question on on the dividend. If if in order to pay out the the $20.19 dividend later in the year, do you need anything from do you need a letter from IOPE or Danish FSA? Or if this just stabilized, are you willing to to do it without any without seeking any approval or seeking any indications from regulators? No. I would say that I think we need to see how the market develops, and then we will follow that. But but, again, as Lars said, we we have the funding. I also think think as you see in the in the accounts our accounts that we have we have enough capital at the moment to to provide a dividend. So so we are we are leaning a little bit back and then waiting what is happening in in the market. Okay. So so you you will need a thumbs up or a a positive not from the regulator in order to to go for But have but I'm on weekly calls with the with the Danish FSA. And, yeah, I think if they continue, then I will discuss with them. Okay. Excellent. Excellent. That was all that I that I have for now. Thank you much. And we have a follow-up question from the line of Pierre Gonbaugh from SEB. Please go ahead. Yes. I actually turned it from one end to being two. Just to be clear on Martin's last question, Do you need to seek formal approval from the FSA on your capital planning before making extraordinary dividend or launching The a short question here is no, we don't do that. We don't do that. Not is that it has been a you can say how do you say in English? Recommendation. It's been a recommendation. It's not been an order. The reason I'm asking is because the banks, they need to ask to get a formal approval. That's the difference between the banking office and the insurance office. Exactly. And here, we are discussing the group. And for sure, we have stated that in 2020, the bank will not provide any dividend for 'nineteen. But we will do it we still keep the same dividend level on group level. Okay. Perfect. Then just on the travel claims. To what extent should we expect that the company clearing the card payments will be held held liable? We have any experience how many have paid with dancorp with no covers and how much how many have paid with an international credit card where, basically, you you can go back to the credit card company and get the money from them instead? No. We don't have the figures for that here, to be honest. What's your guess? One third, 25%, or no clue? To be honest, your guess is as good as ours. But it is not something we it's not an issue we have had to deal with. So so maybe that answer your question. However, on the other hand, that could be a pretty good second line of demand. Yes. You're right about that. Yes. Okay. Perfect. Thank you. As there are no further questions, I'll hand it back to the speakers. Okay. Thank you for listening, and thank you for all the good questions. Look forward to see you maybe later, some of you at the but have a good day. Thank you.