Denmark · Delayed Price · Currency is DKK Danske Bank Earnings Call Transcripts
Fiscal Year 2026
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Q3 core income grew 9% YoY, with record 15.1% ROE and strong credit quality. FY2026 net profit guidance narrowed to DKK 24bn–DKK 25bn, while capital and cost targets remain on track.
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Macroeconomic resilience and rate hikes support stable revenue, with net interest income guidance unchanged and deposit repricing ongoing. Credit quality remains strong, and funding is on track, while agricultural exposure is well-provisioned amid sector volatility.
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Strong H1 2026 results with Q2 net profit of DKK 6.2 billion and ROE of 14.8%, driven by broad-based commercial momentum, robust fee and interest income, and disciplined cost control. 2026 profit outlook raised to DKK 23-25 billion, with continued investment in technology and stable asset quality.
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Q2 2026 is expected to show stable lending growth and resilient fee income, with limited NII benefit from recent rate hikes. Capital and liquidity remain strong, and management reiterates a focus on organic growth while remaining open to M&A in Sweden.
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Q1 2026 saw strong profit, stable income, and robust capital, with raised 2028 targets for ROE, cost efficiency, and dividends. Strategic investments in technology and AI are expected to drive further productivity and growth.
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Macroeconomic and sector outlooks remain positive, with upgraded GDP forecasts and resilient labor markets. Q1 sees stable lending growth, subdued capital markets activity, and no major credit quality concerns, while management prepares a strategy update and maintains full-year guidance.
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Nordic growth outlook remains positive, with stable lending and diversified fee income. Q4 will see a non-recurring tax gain, higher seasonal costs, and a negative insurance one-off, while CET1 ratio reflects regulatory impacts.
Fiscal Year 2025
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2025 saw record pre-impairment profit, stable NII, and strong fee income, with net profit at DKK 23 billion and a 13.3% ROE. Outlook for 2026 is positive, with expected net profit of DKK 22–24 billion, continued investment in digital and AI, and a 100% payout ratio.
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Net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached DKK 16.7 billion, with stable NII, strong credit quality, and record-high assets under management. Guidance for 2025 net profit is now at the upper end of DKK 21–23 billion, with lower expected loan impairments and continued cost discipline.
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Macroeconomic conditions are improving in the euro area and Nordics, with Denmark's GDP growth revised down due to statistical changes but fundamentals remain strong. Lending and investment activity show modest recovery, while fee income is dampened by low sentiment and seasonality. Expense and impairment guidance are reiterated, and no interim dividends are planned.
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Net profit for H1 2025 reached DKK 11.2 billion, with stable NII and strong credit quality, despite softer fee income due to market volatility. The CET1 ratio rose to 18.7%, and guidance for 2025 net profit and expenses remains unchanged.
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Q1 2025 net profit rose 2% year-over-year to DKK 5.8 billion, with strong credit quality, stable income, and robust capital ratios. Full-year guidance is unchanged, with a focus on prudent cost management, strategic capital allocation, and ongoing market share initiatives.
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Nordic economies show improved growth and declining inflation, but geopolitical risks and market volatility persist. NII is expected to be lower due to rate cuts, with hedges providing some offset. Full-year guidance is maintained, with a notable DKK 0.2 billion insurance provision in Q1.
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Nordic inflation is normalizing with positive growth in Denmark and Norway, while rate cuts and muted credit demand shape Q4 trends. Full-year NII is guided at DKK 36.5 billion, with insurance results at the lower end of guidance due to model updates.
Fiscal Year 2024
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Net profit for 2024 reached DKK 23.6 billion, exceeding guidance, with strong core income growth and improved efficiency. 2025 outlook anticipates slightly lower income, stable costs, and continued robust capital returns, with 100% payout of earnings planned.
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Profitability improved with net profit of DKK 17.6 billion for the first nine months and ROE at 13.9% in Q3. Full-year net profit outlook was raised, cost discipline improved the cost income ratio, and asset quality remains strong with net impairment reversals.
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Q3 rate-cut effects on NII were expected to be modest, but the changed rate outlook put DKK 37bn FY NII guidance at risk. Cost reductions, the Norway portfolio handover and CFO transition remained key developments.
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H1 2024 saw strong profit growth, robust capital position, and increased customer activity, with upgraded full-year guidance and a DKK 7.5 interim dividend. Capital distributions remain prudent, with all 2024 net profit and divestment proceeds to be paid out.
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Management remained comfortable with full-year NII and cost expectations. Q2 commentary pointed to resilient Nordic activity, ongoing fee drivers and planned capital updates with results on July 19.
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Q4 guidance pointed to negligible impairments and a DKK 0.3bn FY charge, with an annual DKK 0.1bn NII tailwind from rate increases. Funding, capital sensitivity and market risks remained key discussion points.
Fiscal Year 2023
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Q3 commentary flagged substantial one-offs, including a negative DKK 0.8bn trading item and a DKK 1.1bn gain from the Danske IT sale. Full-year impairment guidance remained up to DKK 1.5bn amid vulnerable sectors and macro uncertainty.
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NII benefited from rate and currency dynamics, while housing and equity-market activity remained weak. Norway disposal-related one-offs are expected to yield a minor positive Q2 net-profit impact; an accelerated dividend targets the upper end of policy, subject to board approval.
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The 2023 outlook remains DKK 15bn–DKK 17bn, with NII sensitivity at DKK 700m–DKK 800m per 25 bps. Strong capital and liquidity buffers contrast with high macro uncertainty and expected deposit migration.
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The 2022 net profit outlook was a loss better than DKK 5.3bn, while the 2023 ROE target stood at 8.5–9%. Rates supported NII sensitivity, but softer housing and market activity, inflation and macro uncertainty shaped Q4 risks.
Fiscal Year 2022
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Rate hikes were expected to support NII, while weak capital-markets activity and volatile valuations weighed on income prospects. Debt-collection remediation drove substantial Q3 one-offs; full-year income and underlying cost guidance remained unchanged.
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War-related uncertainty and market volatility cloud the Q1 outlook, though direct exposure was limited and capital remained strong. Margin pressure eased, while elevated remediation costs and market-sensitive fees weighed on earnings prospects.
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The 2022 Nordic outlook remained resilient, while Q4 commentary pointed to persistent margin pressure and higher year-end costs. Capital reflected the final EBA-related REA increase, and fee trends were supported by active markets.
Fiscal Year 2021
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Nordic recovery supported activity, but sustained margin pressure, seasonal trading and Q3 one-offs tempered the outlook. FY 2021 underlying cost guidance remained below DKK 24.5bn, with REA expected to rise DKK 50bn–70bn.
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A DKK 350m provision for the Swedish VAT case will weigh on Q2 costs, but full-year cost guidance is unchanged. REA is expected to rise by DKK 50bn–70bn in 2021 as EBA guidelines are implemented.
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Q1 commentary pointed to ongoing Danish margin pressure, subdued remortgaging and market-sensitive fee and trading income. Full-year cost and impairment ceilings were reiterated, with most EBA impacts expected in Q2.
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Q4 commentary indicated persistent Danish margin pressure, subdued lending and remortgaging below Q4 2019 levels. FY 2020 costs were expected near DKK 28bn, while dividend decisions remained subject to board and regulatory discussions.
Fiscal Year 2020
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Net profit guidance remained at least DKK 3bn amid second-wave uncertainty, while up to 1,600 staff reductions are planned over the next 6–12 months. Q3 revenue factors included subdued remortgaging, pricing changes and seasonal trading patterns.
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The four-unit structure will become two, with standardized offerings for Personal & Business Customers and tailored products for Large Corporate & Wholesale Customers. The redesign is intended to simplify operations, support cost reduction and take effect 1 January 2021.
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H1 net profit was DKK 1.0bn as DKK 5.3bn of impairments and higher compliance and transformation costs offset resilient income. FY2020 profit guidance remained at least DKK 3bn, with costs targeted to fall 8%-10% in 2021.
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Q2 market recovery and sharply lower remortgaging activity shaped revenue trends, while pandemic-related impairments were still expected after substantial Q1 recognition. Capital effects were expected to balance higher market-risk REA with the SME discount; Q2 results would update costs and the 2023 transformation.
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Q1 results were hit by DKK 4.3bn of impairments and an 82% YoY drop in trading income as COVID-19 disrupted markets. FY2020 net profit guidance remained at least DKK 3bn, and the 2023 ROE target remained 9%–10%.
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FY2020 guidance was suspended as COVID-19 increased uncertainty around impairments and trading income. Strong liquidity, rising credit demand and evolving guarantee schemes were key call themes.
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Q4 included sizeable announced one-offs, while margin pressure persisted and 2020 market headwinds were expected to continue. The 2023 plan included DKK 1.5–2bn of 2020 investment, with some costs booked in Q4 2019.
Fiscal Year 2019
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FY2019 net profit was DKK 15.1bn, broadly flat, but underlying performance faced income pressure and higher costs. 2020 net profit guidance is DKK 8bn–DKK 10bn, with continued investment in compliance and transformation.
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9M net profit fell 14% YoY to DKK 10bn, while management set 2023 targets of 9%-10% ROE and a low-50s cost-income ratio. A DKK 5bn gross cost program and major digitization investments underpin the turnaround plan.
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H1 profit fell 24% to DKK 7bn as margin pressure, higher compliance costs and fewer impairment reversals weighed on results. FY profit guidance was cut to DKK 13–15bn, while regulatory and compliance demands remained central risks.
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Q1 net profit fell 39% YoY to DKK 3.0bn as lower NII, higher expenses and impairments weighed on results. FY guidance remains DKK 14bn–16bn, including an expected Danica Pension Sweden sale gain, while NII is forecast below 2018.
Fiscal Year 2018
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2018 net profit fell to DKK 15bn and ROE to 9.8%, with Estonia-related costs and weak trading weighing on results. For 2019, net profit is guided at DKK 14bn–DKK 16bn, while AML investment, higher funding costs and margin pressure remain key considerations.
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9M profit was DKK 11.6bn as the DKK 1.5bn Estonia donation and weak trading weighed on results. Lending and credit quality remained strong, while FY profit guidance stood at DKK 16bn–DKK 17bn amid regulatory and investigation risks.
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The review found serious AML and supervisory failures; 6,200 of 15,000 customers had been examined, with most deemed suspicious and reported. FY guidance fell to DKK 16bn–17bn, while the current buyback continued.
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H1 net profit was DKK 9.1bn as weaker trading income offset lending growth and strong credit quality. FY profit guidance stayed at DKK 18bn–20bn, with results expected at the lower end; the Estonian AML investigation remained unresolved.
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Q1 net profit was DKK 4.9bn, with lending growth and strong credit quality offset by weaker capital-markets income. FY net profit guidance remained DKK 18bn–DKK 20bn, while a DKK 10bn buyback was underway.
Fiscal Year 2017
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FY17 net profit rose 5% to DKK 20.9bn, with ROE of 13.6% and strong capital. FY18 net profit guidance is DKK 18bn-DKK 20bn; a DKK 10bn buyback and 40%-60% dividend payout range were announced.
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SEB agreed to sell its Danish life and pension business for DKK 6.5bn, with closing expected in summer 2018 subject to regulatory approval. The sale supports investment in SEB’s core segments and is expected to lift its pro forma CET1 ratio by ~60 bps.
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9M net profit rose 7% to DKK 15.3bn, supported by stronger customer activity and loan impairment reversals. The 2017 net profit outlook was raised to DKK 19bn–DKK 21bn, while capital remained strong.
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H1 net profit rose 10% to DKK 10.3bn, supported by stronger customer activity, higher fee and trading income, and net impairment reversals. FY net profit guidance increased to DKK 18bn-DKK 20bn, with expenses expected around 2016 levels.
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Q1 net profit rose 12% to DKK 5.5bn, with 14.4% ROE and strong fee and trading income. FY net profit guidance remained DKK 17bn–DKK 19bn, while the DKK 10bn buyback continued on plan.
Fiscal Year 2016
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Net profit reached DKK 19.9bn, up 12% excluding 2015 goodwill impairment charges, with 13.1% ROE and stronger capital. 2017 net profit guidance is DKK 17bn–19bn amid low rates and uncertain market conditions.
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9M net profit rose 9% to DKK 14.3bn, with 12.6% return on equity amid subdued markets. Full-year profit is expected to exceed 2015 adjusted for goodwill impairment, supported by stronger trading income.
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H1 net profit was DKK 9.4bn and ROE 12.4%, with lending growth and very low impairments offsetting weak fees and challenging markets. NII guidance improved, while fee income remained pressured and capital targets were raised to 14%-15% CET1.
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Q1 net profit was nearly DKK 5bn, with stable NII and lower costs offsetting weaker fees and trading. Guidance was maintained, with low impairments and lower FY costs expected.
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2015 produced record net profit before goodwill impairment of DKK 17.7bn and 11.6% ROE, with an 8 DKK dividend and a new DKK 9bn buyback. Priorities included digital transformation, Nordic growth and stronger customer experience, while shareholders rejected three proposals and a separate governance proposal.
Fiscal Year 2015
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2015 adjusted net profit rose 36% to DKK 17.7bn and ROE reached 11.6%, excluding goodwill impairments. Guidance called for 2016 profit in line with 2015, with costs lower and credit losses low.
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9M net profit rose 28% to DKK 13.1bn as fees, cost control and sharply lower impairments offset NII pressure. FY profit guidance remained above DKK 16bn, with cautious NII expectations and a strong capital position.
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H1 net profit rose 36% to DKK 9.4bn as income increased and core impairments fell 78%. FY net profit guidance was raised above DKK 16bn, despite ongoing margin pressure from negative rates.
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Q1 net profit rose 76% to DKK 5bn, with trading, insurance and customer activity offsetting low-rate pressure on NII. FY net profit guidance remained above DKK 14bn amid rate and economic uncertainty.
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FY2014 profit before goodwill impairments rose 82% to DKK 12.9bn, and a DKK 5.50-per-share dividend plus DKK 5bn buyback was proposed. Directors were re-elected as management pursued ROE above 12.5% by 2018 amid low rates and customer-trust challenges.
Fiscal Year 2014
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2014 net profit was DKK 12.9bn excluding a DKK 9.1bn goodwill impairment, with higher income and lower costs and impairments. 2015 net profit was forecast above DKK 14bn, with ROE targeted above 12.5% by 2018.
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9M net profit was DKK 10.1bn and annualized ROE reached 8.9%; expenses and impairments declined YoY. FY net profit guidance rose to DKK 11.5bn–13.5bn, while C&I targets a 50% return on allocated capital from 2015.
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H1 net profit rose 88% to DKK 6.9bn as income grew and impairments fell. FY14 net profit guidance increased to DKK 10bn–13bn, while low rates and market volatility weighed on trading income.
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Q1 net profit rose 91% YoY to DKK 2.8bn as costs and impairments fell. FY2014 profit guidance remained at the higher end of DKK 9bn–12bn, with low rates and subdued lending demand still pressuring NII.
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FY2013 net profit rose 51% and impairments fell 45%, but 5% ROE remained below ambitions. The AGM adopted a DKK 2-per-share dividend and set priorities around customer trust, efficiency, and stronger returns.
Fiscal Year 2013
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2013 net profit rose 51% to DKK 7.1bn as expenses and impairments declined, though total income fell 12%. 2014 net profit guidance was DKK 9bn–DKK 12bn, with income expected to exceed 2013.
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Q3 profit was DKK 1.5bn as weak trading offset stable core income, while 9M profit rose 45% YoY. Guidance was cut to DKK 6bn–DKK 8bn, with cost reductions accelerated and Irish retail and business operations set to exit.
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H1 net profit rose 61% to DKK 3.6bn as impairments fell, but market and insurance volatility drove lower FY guidance of DKK 6.5bn–DKK 9bn. Capital and liquidity remained strong, while ROE was 5.2% for H1.
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FSA orders are expected to add ~DKK 100bn to RWA by year-end, lifting 2015 guidance to ~DKK 930bn; management said the DKK 81.5bn capital buffer remains unchanged. Profit guidance and the >12% 2015 ROE ambition were reaffirmed.
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Q1 net profit rose 29% QoQ to DKK 1.5bn, but total income fell 14% YoY. Lower costs and impairments supported results; FY net profit guidance of DKK 7.5bn–DKK 10bn was maintained.
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FY 2012 net profit reached DKK 4.7bn and impairments declined, but return on equity remained 3.7%. New Standards focused on customer satisfaction, efficiency, and stronger earnings; no dividend was proposed, with resumption dependent on performance and conditions.
Fiscal Year 2012
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2012 net profit rose to DKK 4.7bn as impairments declined and capital and liquidity strengthened. 2013 guidance targets DKK 7.5bn–DKK 10bn, with flat NII and lower trading and insurance income.
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New Standards targets ROE above 12% by 2015 through pricing, efficiency, lower impairments and selective growth. Personal and business banking face major operating changes, while C&I protects its franchise and reallocates capital.
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Nine-month net profit reached DKK 3.6bn, while a new 2015 plan targets ROE above 12% and costs below DKK 26bn. A planned DKK 7bn equity raise aims to accelerate a rating upgrade; Irish losses and weak rates remain key headwinds.
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H1 NII rose 9% YoY, but DKK 7bn of impairments kept return on equity at 4.7%. FY NII was expected to exceed 2011, while loan losses were forecast roughly in line with 2011.
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Q1 profit was DKK 800m as stronger net interest income and trading offset high impairments and weak Danica earnings. Full-year profit was expected to remain low, with major cost restructuring and further Irish losses ahead.
Fiscal Year 2011
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2011 net profit was DKK 1.7bn as weak insurance results and high impairments weighed on earnings. For 2012, earnings were expected to remain low, with high loan losses and uncertain markets partly offset by higher lending margins and cost controls.
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9M net profit was DKK 1.5bn, but Q3 swung to a DKK 384m loss on weak trading and Danica investment results. Margin increases and a DKK 2bn cost plan aim to improve earnings as funding and impairment risks persist.
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Adjusted Q2 earnings were DKK 4.5m, or DKK 0.09 per diluted share, as revenue held broadly flat and U.S. oilfield services strengthened. Management expected H2 activity and profitability to improve, supported by firmer pricing and new project awards.
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Q1 pre-tax profit was DKK 1.5bn, or DKK 2.4bn adjusted for the DKK 850m guarantee charge and other one-offs. Strong trading and lower impairments were offset by weak net interest income and ongoing Irish credit stress.
Fiscal Year 2010
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2010 net profit was DKK 3.7bn as lower costs and impairments partly offset weaker income. A DKK 20bn rights issue was planned to strengthen equity capital and support hybrid repayment, while 2011 guidance remained mixed.
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H1 net profit more than doubled YoY to DKK 1.7bn despite a 25% decline in income; costs and impairments improved. Capital remained strong, while 2010 was expected to stay challenging as rate pressure and high credit charges persisted.
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Q1 net profit was DKK 0.8bn as lower costs and falling impairments partly offset a 30% decline in total income. Capital and liquidity remained strong, while the 2010 outlook stayed cautiously positive amid fragile recovery and elevated credit risks.