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Earnings Call: Q2 2015

Aug 11, 2015

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Q2 report 2015 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Morten Eismark. Please go ahead, sir.

Morten Eismark
Head of Investor Relations, Pandora

Thank you, and welcome to Pandora's conference call following the release of our Q2 2015 results announced earlier today. This presentation for the call, as well as the full version of the Q2 release, is available on pandoragroup.com/investor. My name is Morten Eismark from Pandora Investor Relations, and with me here today is CEO Anders Colding Friis and CFO Peter Vekslund. In accordance with the guide, the agenda on slide two, Anders will go through a few Q2 highlights, followed by Peter, who will talk you through the Q2 numbers in more detail. Finally, Anders will conclude the presentation, and we'll be happy to take your questions. Before handing over to Anders, I kindly ask you to pay close attention to the disclaimer on page three. Anders, please.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Thank you, Morten. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide number four. Following a strong first quarter, the momentum in the business has continued into Q2. Second quarter revenue was DKK 3.6 billion, with an increase of 41%, or 26% in local currency. Revenue growth for the quarter was driven by all geographies, supported by strong growth across all product categories. In particular, we are encouraged to see that our core category, the charms bracelet, increased by around 40% compared to last year. The new collections launched during the quarter were again received well by our consumers, and the Disney Collection, launched in November in North America, continued to support growth in that region.

We continued to expand our branded network with focus on concept stores, and during the quarter, we added net 107 concept stores to the network. Revenue concept stores increased 55% for the quarter and now contributes 59% of group revenue. S ales-out growth continues to be positive, and we've now been able to generate positive like-for-like sales in all four reported markets for 10 consecutive quarters. EBITDA for the quarter was DKK 1.311 billion, an increase of 47% compared to Q2 last year, and EBITDA margin was 36.4%, compared to 35.1% in Q2 of 2014. The margin increase was driven by an improvement in both the gross margin and the OpEx ratio.

In the quarter, we made the first payment to the Danish tax authorities of DKK 642 million related to the settlement in May, and consequently, free cash flow for the quarter was negative at DKK -268 million. Based on the strong performance in the quarter, we've updated our full-year revenue guidance to more than DKK 16 billion. Included in this upgrade is additional currency tailwind of 2% compared to what was expected in Q1, so we now expect 12% tailwind from currency for the full year. Finally, we continued to return cash to our shareholders, and during the first half of 2015, we have bought back shares for DKK 1.5 billion. Please turn to slide number five. All geographic regions generated double-digit growth for the quarter, also excluding the positive tailwind from currency.

Americas was up 44% for the quarter, on 19% in local currency. Revenue in the U.S. increased 14% in local currency to DKK 1.2 billion. Increase was driven by network expansion as well as like-for-like growth. The latter was driven in particular by the rings category, as well as the continued high demand for the Disney Collection. Revenue from other Americas increased 39% in local currency, and Canada, which is the largest country in the region, increased by 20% in local currency, driven by a continued positive like-for-like development. Furthermore, the development in Brazil continues, driven by double-digit like-for-like growth and the addition of 29 concept stores in the past 12 months. Revenue from Europe was up 38% for the quarter and up 32% in local currency, driven primarily by the U.K., Italy, and France.

U.K. continues to perform well, and although it is a highly penetrated market, revenue grew 31.2% in local currency for the quarter. The growth was driven by positive, like-for-like growth, supported by the recent introduction of the Pandora Rose collection, as well as continued success of the eStore and expansion of the store network. Finally, we took over four very successful concept stores in April, and the conversion of wholesale revenue to retail revenue has given us a couple of percentage points of additional growth. Revenue from Germany was DKK 110 million, an increase of 3%. However, this includes a provision for returned goods of DKK 53 million, related to the closure of a number of multi-brand accounts, involving the closing of around 275 stores in the next twelve months.

Excluding the provision, revenue in Germany increased 53%. The strong growth was driven by a combination of positive like-for-like figures and the expansion and improvement of the store network in Germany. The improvement of the network is, as you know, ongoing, and during the quarter, we opened 32 concept stores, of which 25 is related to the 77 store leases secured earlier in the year. Momentum in France and Italy has continued, and revenue from the two countries increased by more than 50% for the quarter, driven by an improved network and healthy like-for-like growth. For the quarter, Italy was 30% and France 15% of the revenue from other Europe. Revenue in Russia, which by the way, represents less than 2% of group revenue in the first half of the year, was down 40% for the quarter.

The decrease was driven by low double-digit negative like-for-like growth and a more cautious purchasing behavior from our local distributor in Russia. The retail environment is becoming increasingly challenging, and we expect the like-for-like figures for Russia for 2015 to end up slightly negative. This, combined with a more cautious spending from the distributor, means that our growth in Russia for the full year probably will be in the region of -25% to -50%. Regarding Russia, there has been some speculation in the media regarding the long-term ownership of our distributor, PanClub, and we are obviously following the situation closely. It is important to say that the uncertainty concerning the long-term ownership is not related to the performance of PanClub. Revenue from Asia Pacific increased 44% for the quarter, or 27% in local currency.

In the highly penetrated Australian market, sales increased 29% in local currency. Other Asia Pacific increased 25% in local currency, driven primarily by Hong Kong and China. Revenues from Hong Kong increased around 50% in local currency, despite the current difficult retail environment, which has had limited impact on the business so far. China has the strongest quarter to date, and revenue more than doubled compared to second quarter of last year. We've initiated a new and improved partnership with Oracle in China from 1st July, and already during the second quarter, we helped with some improvements of the stores in China, particularly in terms of inventory. Regarding Japan, the new partnership with Bluebell is developing according to plan, and we expect to add a couple of stores in the second half of 2015.

Finally, as you saw this morning, we have agreed to take over the distribution network in Singapore and Macau, where the current distributor contracts expire. This will happen by the end of this year. As part of the agreement, we will also reacquire the distribution rights in the Philippines. The agreement follows similar deals with other local distributors and is in line with our strategy to increase the control of our brand. Now, please turn to slide number six. The positive like-for-like rates have continued across all four reported markets. Like-for-like growth in the U.S. was 8.1%, driven in particular by rings as well as the Disney Collection. The process of refreshing the network in the Northeast continues, and as of today, 10 of the stores acquired from Hannoush have been refitted to the new Evolution Concept.

The Northeast region is improving, but still, like-for-like for the quarter was slightly negative. All other major U.S. regions grew with single, high single-digit like-for-like rates or more. Like-for-like growth in Australia was 35.7%, and probably our best quarter ever in terms of like-for-like. Like-for-like in the U.K. was 11.4%. The U.K. continues to perform very well, but as previously said, high double-digit growth rates becomes increasingly difficult to achieve. Like-for-like in Germany was 9%, and as we mentioned on the last call, we had anticipated negative like-for-like growth in Germany as a consequence of the many concept store openings. This has not materialized, as we've seen limited cannibalization, and the stores have performed better than expected. Now, please turn to slide number seven.

Our new products continue to perform well, and roughly half of our revenue continues to be created by products launched within the last twelve months. During the quarter, we launched the High Summer and the Mother's Day collection, which were both received well in all markets. However, as the Mother's Day collection had roughly 25 less design variation compared to the same collection last year, it did not outperform last year's collection. As mentioned, Pandora Rose was launched in the U.K. stores in June. The introduction follows the successful launch of the collection in Americas in October last year and has been very well received by the British consumer. Our Disney collection continues to perform well, and from the beginning of the quarter, we started selling products in shop-in-shops and O&O stores. So all branded stores now have the Disney in their assortment.

Please turn to slide number eight. As a consequence of the strong quarter two numbers, we upgrade our full-year revenue guidance to more than DKK 16 billion, compared to previously expected more than DKK 15 billion. Included in the guidance is also an upgrade in the number of concept stores from 325 to 375. This also means that our network expansion is now expected to contribute slightly more to growth compared to growth of our existing stores. We previously expected the two growth factors to contribute equally. As mentioned earlier, the new guidance also includes slightly more tailwind from currency. Assuming unchanged exchange rates, we now expect a tailwind from currency of about 12% compared to the 10%, which was highlighted in connection with the quarter one results. Our expectations regarding EBITDA margin, CapEx, and tax rate is unchanged.

With this, I now hand over to Peter, who will give you some more details on our financials.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yeah, thank you, Anders. Please turn to slide nine. Revenue for the quarter was almost DKK 3.6 billion and increased 41.4% or 25.8% in local currency. Like-for-like growth contributed with roughly 40% of the growth, driven by more or less all markets. Our network expansion, including the acquisitions of distributors concept stores, contributed the remaining 60%. The additional revenue from converting the wholesale revenue to retail value of acquired stores added around DKK 80 million to revenue for the quarter, when we compare to Q2 last year. Volume increased by 15.8%, and the average sale price increased 22%. The increase in the ASP was primarily due to higher exchange rates, which represented 60% of the increase. The remaining is mainly related to the increase in the share of retail revenue in our books.

On a product-by-product basis, prices in local currency have been kept virtually unchanged. Revenue from owned and operated stores increased 131% to DKK 891 million, and is now 25% of group revenue, compared to 15% in Q2 last year. The strong increase in retail revenue is driven by like-for-like growth, as well as the addition of 219 new owned and operated stores within the last 12 months. Furthermore, we continue to roll out our e-store into more markets, and during the quarter, the e-commerce platform was launched in the U.S. and Sweden. Now, please turn to slide 10. We continue to focus on the branded part of our network, and in the last 12 months, we have closed a total of 1,130 unbranded distributors, while opening net 646 branded stores.

During the quarter, we added 107 concept stores, of which 65 are owned and operated. 71 of the stores were opened in Europe, with Germany being the largest contributor as part of the mentioned effort to improve the network in the country. 23 concept stores were opened in Americas, mainly in Brazil and the U.S, while 13 stores were added in Asia Pacific. Please turn to slide 11. All product categories contributed to the growth for the quarter, driven by newness in the assortment, as well as the continued demand for product launch within more than 12 months ago. Revenue from charms increased by 44%, while revenue from silver and gold charms bracelet was up 37.4%. We are encouraged to see a continued high demand for our core product across all markets.

Growth for the quarter was supported, in particular, by the recently launched High Summer and Spring Collection, as well as the introduction of Pandora Rose and the Disney Collection in certain markets. The focus on the rings category continues, and revenue from rings increased by 39.9% for the quarter, corresponding to 10.6% of total revenue on par with Q2 last year. The category was primarily driven by a strong development in Asia and Americas, whereas the U.K. and Australia, which for the last many quarters has been driving the rings revenue, are starting to reach a level with tough comparisons. Other jewelry increased by 31.6%, driven by revenue from earrings and necklaces, which increased 70% and 80%, respectively. Please turn to slide number 12.

Gross profit was DKK 2,573 million, corresponding to a gross margin of 71.5%, compared to 70.7% last year. The increase was mainly driven by tailwind from more favorable raw material prices, as well as market and channel mix. The increase was partially offset by unfavorable currency rates. Based on our spot prices, our gross margin for Q2 would have been approximately 73%. Please turn to slide 13. Operating expenses for the quarter were DKK 1,338 million, representing 37.2% of revenue versus 37.6% in Q2 of last year. Sale and distribution expenses were DKK 662 million, corresponding to 18.4% of revenue, compared to 18% last year.

The relative increase was mainly driven by the increasing share of revenue from owned and operated stores, which has an impact of around 2 percentage points on the ratio. However, in general, we are seeing improved cost efficiency across all store types. Marketing expenses increased to DKK 319 million, corresponding to 8.9% of revenue, which is a bit below the level of 10%, which we're expecting for the full year. Administrative expenses for the quarter increased 27% to DKK 357 million. This represents 9.9% of revenue, compared with 11% of Q2 last year revenue. The nominal increase was primarily due to more employees. Please turn to slide 14.

EBITDA for the quarter increased by 46.8% to DKK 1,311 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 36.4%, compared with 35.1% in Q2 2014. The EBITDA margin for Americas for the quarter was 44.4% and down 2 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year, despite the positive gross margin impact. The decrease was due to an increase in number of employees, primarily related to the increase in owned and operated stores in the region. The EBITDA margin for Europe decreased from 39.3% in Q2 of last year to 38.6% for the current quarter. The decrease was primarily due to the revenue provision we took in Germany of DKK 53 million, as well as the ongoing rollout concept stores in the country.

The EBITDA margin for the Asia Pacific region was 51.3%, compared to 46.7%. The improvement was driven by increasing revenue in the region, as well as the improved gross margin. As mentioned on the last call, we had anticipated some pressure on the margins in this region due to investments in China and Japan, but due to timing of costs, the decrease in margins in Asia Pacific is not expected to materialize before the second half of this year. Please turn to slide 15. Net financial income for the quarter amounted to a loss of DKK 69 million, of which 44, the net exchange rate gain, mainly related to unrealized gain on intercompany loans in U.S. dollars. Net interest expenses and other costs were DKK 113 million, including a loss on commodity and foreign exchange rate contracts.

The tax rate for the quarter was 22%, up from 20% last year, as a consequence of the settlement with the Danish tax authorities last quarter. Finally, net profit increased 37% to DKK 910 million. Please turn to slide 16. Operating working capital at the end of the quarter corresponded to 15.7% of the preceding 12-month revenue and decreased as a percentage of revenue compared to the same quarter last year. The decrease was mainly due to a relative decrease in inventory impacted by lower raw material prices, as well as better cash collection from our retailers, improving our trade receivables. Inventory, in absolute terms, increased with DKK 236 million compared to Q1 2015, primarily due to a buildup of inventory ahead of our Q3 launches.

The Q2 CapEx was DKK 239 million, an increase of DKK 153 million compared to the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily due to opening of 65 owned and operated stores in the quarter, as well as increasing investments in the production in Thailand. Free cash flow for the quarter was DKK -268 million, and as Anders mentioned, impacted by the payment to the tax authorities, but also compared to the same quarter last year, negatively impacted by a higher CapEx spend and a proportionally higher increase in inventory. Finally, we ended the quarter with a net debt position of DKK 1.03 billion, and you'll notice that we have a cash position of DKK 611 million at the end of the quarter.

This is mainly to make room for payments around DKK 100 million related to our partnership with Oracle starting on 1st July, as well as ongoing payments related to the openings of stores in Germany. With this, I'll hand the word back to Anders for some closing remarks.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Thank you very much, Peter. In summary, for the second quarter, our revenue increased by 1.4%. We continued rollout of stores with the addition of 107 concept stores during the quarter. Gross margin, 71.5%. EBITDA margin, 36.4%. A free cash flow of DKK -268 million. And a full- year revenue guidance upgraded to more than DKK 16 billion. All in all, a good quarter, which was a result of great and relevant products, as well as our more than 14,000 dedicated employees around the world. This concludes our presentation. Peter and I would like to open for any questions that you might have.

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press the star or asterisk key, followed by the digit 1 on your telephone. Please ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, please press star 1 to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone to signal. We will now take our first question from Chiara Battistini from JPMorgan . Please go ahead.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Three questions for me, please. First, on Australia, like-for-like, that continues to be exceptionally strong. If you could elaborate more on the drivers behind this like-for-like, and especially if you're seeing new customers coming to the brand or it keeps on being pushed by repeat purchase. Then the second question on the product innovations, one on Pandora Rose. I was wondering if this will be rolled out over to other regions. And on earrings and necklaces, up 70% and 80%, respectively, which regions are you focusing mainly? And have you started to dedicate more marketing to these categories as well, like you're doing for rings? And finally, on the Germany provisions, if we should expect anything more coming in the next few quarters, please. Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Okay, let me start by taking the two first questions, and then Peter will answer the last one. As you point out, the Australian like-for-like numbers are very strong, and that is very encouraging. I think that you cannot expect to continue on these numbers over time, but clearly the quarter came out very well. A question, and maybe give a little bit of a sense of what is happening also in Australia, but in general, in some of our more developed markets, is that as we have had more focus on our rings, what we see is a slightly younger group of consumers have an interest in the brand, and they actually come back and look at other product categories. Among those are our bracelets and charms.

So in general, it's very supportive to the business also in Australia. When you look at the product innovation, you ask to Pandora Rose, now we've had that in the U.S. for a period of time, and we wanted to see how that would work out in Europe, and therefore, we took one of our more developed markets, the U.K., and launched Pandora Rose in that market. It seems to be working well, but we are still in the early days, so we do not, at this time, have any plans to further develop the distribution of Pandora Rose. Earrings and then also pendants are definitely growing, and it's nice to see. But at the same time, we also have to say we haven't really started focusing on those areas yet.

We have still a strong focus on developing our rings, and we will continue doing that for some time, and when we find that we are ready, and we have the right penetration on rings, we'll take the next categories. But we still have a good product offering in those areas, and it's nice to see that our consumers are responding well to that. And I think Peter will answer the last question.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, on Germany, we made a quantum leap in the beginning of the year with the Biba acquisition. We have now opened 33 out of the 60 net store openings, and it's very well on track with that plan. In order to accelerate it, we have decided to close 275 points of sale within the next 12 months, and I made a provision of DKK 53 million for that. With that said, we believe that we have a solid platform for growth in Germany. And of course, we'll continue to optimize our operations also in Germany.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

We shouldn't be expecting any further provision in the coming quarters? It's done.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

We believe we have covered what our current plans, but ruling out any further provisions, I cannot promise that.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Michael Rasmussen from ABG. Please go ahead.

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Yes, good morning, and Anders and Peter, once again, well done on growth. Three questions, so please, mainly on the markets, more specifically. Starting with the U.K., you did report 10 percentage points lower growth in local currencies in the second quarter versus the first quarter. Could you talk a little bit about the categories? I see you state that rings, earrings, and necklaces drive growth. Is the charms and the bracelets category slowing down a lot in the U.K., or what's going on here? Secondly, I'd like to hear a little bit more about other Asia, where the local currency growth only is 25% versus a run rate of 90% in the past four quarters.

I'm a little surprised because I see that you've opened 11 branded stores in the region since the first quarter. So, what is the underlying like-for-like in other Asia, please? And then finally, on the U.S., I want to understand the 14% local currency growth a little bit better. If you add 9%, sorry, concept stores in the quarter, that's about 1%, then Hannoush, you state the impact is DKK 30 million, i.e., about 4%, then like-for-like is 8%, and then if we add a few percent for online, that actually takes you above the 14%. So, what are the parts I'm missing here in that bridge? Is it the closed stores that is taking revenues out of the U.S., or what's going on, please?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I'll take the two first quarters and then, sorry, questions, and then Peter will take the last one. Let's start with the U.K.. In the U.K., we have seen a, I would say, a very nice development also this quarter. I think that we have stated many, many times that in these well-developed markets, we cannot expect to have a growth rate which is exceeding 20%. So, we are actually very encouraged with the development in the U.K. for the quarter. If we look at the different products that we've sold during the quarter, I think one of the things that for me is very encouraging is that we've had a very nice development in our charms and bracelets.

That also goes for the U.K.. But at the same time, we also have a nice penetration of the other product categories, so we can't relate this to the different product categories. What we do is we make sure that we have a relevant and a good offering in our products in general, and we can see that was well received in the U.K. with a good like-for-like growth that we were encouraged by. Then your second question was around the Asia-

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Other Asia.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Yeah, the other Asia, which had a good growth and also a nice growth compared to what we would have been expecting. I don't think that we have any disclosure when it comes to the like-for-like numbers in those areas... And then I'll hand over to Peter for the last-

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

But, Anders, it's just, I mean, growth is 25%. Of course, it's a good level, but you mentioned very high like-for-like growth rates in Hong Kong, as an example, and I see you opening stores. So I'm just puzzled with growth only being 25%, with all the positive underlying moving parts in the region.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Yeah, but we have—I think that if we are looking at that part of the region, we have a slightly lower number of new stores. And then you have to be aware of the fact that in Hong Kong, we don't have a high development in our like-for-like growth. Actually, we have a high development in our total business, which is very encouraging. But actually, the like-for-like development is depressed by the fact that we have doubled the number of stores. The reason for that being that we were running out of capacity in the present stores.

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Okay, thank you.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

On your question on the U.S. First of all, the like-for-like figures we disclose is of course different from our reported revenue. There's inventory and so on. And you are right, you are missing the store closing in the U.S. We continue to close unbranded stores, white and silver dealers, and then focus on concept stores. and finally, then our like-for-like in the U.S. is 8.1%, and that is really the indicator of the strength of our U.S. business, and we believe that's a very good number.

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Peter, how large is the impact from store closures in the quarter, and is that going to accelerate in the quarters to come, please?

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Across all markets, also in the, in the U.S., we continue to close the unbranded doors, and, we closed 125 unbranded doors in, primarily the U.S., in the, in the quarter. So, expect us to continue closing unbranded doors and concept stores. that's really our hope.

Michael Rasmussen
Equity Research Analyst, ABG

Okay, thank you.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Lars Topholm from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yes, congrats with another good quarter. A couple of questions from my side. So the number of store openings are now raised to at least 375 for this year. And I know when I ask you about long-term numbers, you'll always say you focus on quality and not quantity. But if you have to comment on quantity going forward, is this the new norm? What level of store opening should we expect in the coming years, or is 2015 going to be exceptionally high? Then, a second question goes to the acquisition of stores from distributors, as you now do with effect from 1st January, 2016.

Is it fair to assume that these acquisitions happens at single digit EBITDA multiples, or are these deals materially different from, for instance, the chain of ownership clauses you have in your franchise contracts? Just a, a third question, which is a household, household question. The earnings impact from the DKK 53 million provision you made in Germany, how large is that? Thank you very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Well, let me start with the first question, and then I'll leave the two other questions for Peter. And actually, it was an easy question because you also answered the question, Lars. The 375 store openings are the store openings where we can see that we can get quality locations for 2015, and that's why we guide that number. I think what you have to be aware of also, when you look at the number, which we will not give you any guidance on going into the future, by the way, but when you look at the number for 2015, you have to be aware of the fact that we have the special project in Germany, which is adding to the number of stores in general.

So, I think you at least have to take that into account, but you will not get any guidance when you go into the future on this.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

But will you roll on the floor laughing if we assume 300 is the normal run rate, i.e., we deduct what's going on in Germany?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I think that we are very happy with the number that we have disclosed for 2015, and for 2016, we have no number at this time.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Fair enough. Thank you, Anders.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Regarding the distribution in Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines, we are taking over that as of first of January next year. We are paying around DKK 150 million for that, including furniture and inventory. And as we stated in the announcement, there's a retail revenue of DKK 340 million. So your approximation on multiple is ballpark, correct.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Thanks.

Operator

We will now-

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

And then, and then on the DKK 53 million German provision, what is the EBIT impact from that?

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, in terms of the, the provision in,

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

... I think that we can say it, it's around what we would say.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

It's very limited on the group. The EBITDA impact, the 53, that is on revenue, then you have to deduct a bit of the cost of goods sold, and that is then the EBITDA impact.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

So basically, I can take DKK 53 million, multiply with the gross margin, and then I have a ball figure for the EBIT impact?

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, and then we have the Europe EBITDA in the, in the release, and then you, then you have the impact.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Anne-Laure Bulliard from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Anne-Laure Bismuth
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Yes, good morning. I just wanted to know how many stores in the U.K. do you plan to open for H2? And, how do you see the penetration of, in terms of, new store openings, new concept store openings in the U.K.? Regarding Germany, the reset of the store network, should it be completed by year end? I just wanted to confirm that the reset of the store network should be completed by year end. And, finally, regarding Russia, how do you see the situation evolving, and what do you plan with your local partner? Thank you very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Okay, thank you very much for the questions. On the U.K., I think that we can say that if you'd asked us how many stores we would have and be able to open in the U.K. three years ago, it would be a different number than we see today. I think that's the closest we can say. We will not guide a specific number of stores in the U.K., but we continue the development, and we also, this year, have opened new stores. In Germany, it's a very short answer: Yes, the reset will be completed when it comes to the stores by the end of the year.

What we also have to acknowledge is the fact that we have, over a number of years, hurt our brand by an overdistribution in the German market, and the brand has taken damage. We need to rectify that, so it will take some time to get the brand health back where it was. Then in Russia, your question was? Could you just repeat that?

Anne-Laure Bismuth
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Well, how the situation is evolving, and what do you plan with, your local, partner? Is it a network that you can take back in the future, or what, what do you plan to do in Russia?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Well, I think that what we can say about Russia is that Russia is in a very difficult situation, and that we can also see in our numbers. I think that when we look at our numbers, compared to what other retailers or businesses experience in Russia, we are actually doing pretty well, and we are encouraged by that. When it comes to Pandora, they are doing a very good job in a very difficult market. We have our distributor there, and there has been some, as we've also said previously, discussion about the change of that. Presently, it is in ownership of a Russian bank called Sberbank, and we are very happy with the cooperation we have with them as well.

Anne-Laure Bismuth
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Thank you very much. Just to come back on the penetration of the U.K., how do you see the penetration of the U.K. with the Pandora Concept Store? Do you still see some room to open many concept stores? thank you very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I can say that we still see room for concept stores in the U.K. in general.

Anne-Laure Bismuth
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Thank you very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're very welcome.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Frans Hoyer from Jyske Bank. Please go ahead.

Frans Høyer
VP of Equity Research, Jyske Bank

Hello, can you hear me?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

We certainly can.

Frans Høyer
VP of Equity Research, Jyske Bank

Very good. Thank you. You mentioned the strong growth in charms and bracelets, which is very impressive, and you commented that the newness of assortment is a key driver here. Could you explain a little more? Are there some performance indicators you could quote in that respect? Also, in charms and bracelets, whether you can comment on the performance of the Essence Collection, which well was a big deal when you presented it first a year or two ago. How is that developing? And finally, on the upgrade of the guidance, you mentioned that 2% is due to more FX tailwind, and could you comment on other operational factors?

What are the key factors that are causing you to upgrade that guidance, please?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Absolutely. We, yeah, we had a strong, and I think that's very encouraging, quarter in our charms and bracelets. And really, what we can say, we had a strong quarter across all the different product categories, which was definitely encouraging. And newness is an important part of it. I think that what we also told you in the what do you call it, the yeah the announcement was that we had in connection to our Mother's Day Collection, actually cut a little bit in the newness and blended in existing products in the assortment.

That was actually also a very important and encouraging experience, because what we could see there was that there were some of our existing products being put into the collection together with the new products for the Mother's Day Collection, which actually sold better in the second time we had in the collection, compared to the first time in the collection. So we're moving on this. We want to have a good balance between new products and existing products, and we don't want to go too far into new products, because we do believe that would give us more risk. So we are very happy with the balance we have between the two at this time. The Essence Collection is doing well, and we are very happy with the development in Essence.

Like any other product, there's a big difference between the different geographies. So there are some markets and some consumer types which enjoy Essence more than others. And just anecdotally, I can mention that in Germany, we have a slightly higher share of Essence than we have in general, and it is well- suited in that market. On an indication level, we will not give you the total number, but we have a number of markets where the Essence collection is contributing more than 5% of our revenue. If we then look at our upgrade on guidance, it is correct, 2% come from currency, and I think that what we are very encouraged with after the second quarter is that the basic business is doing very well.

Actually, what we've seen is a strong quarter, which was also a nice development and an enjoyable thing for us. Based on that, we have upgraded our guidance for the full year. It's because we've seen a strong business in the second quarter, and we can see the spillover to the remaining part of the year, and because of that, the business doing well, we have upgraded.

Frans Høyer
VP of Equity Research, Jyske Bank

Thanks very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

And then, of course, the final part, which is worth mentioning, which is concept stores, as we've seen, that we can open another concept stores, we also have that included in our guidance.

Frans Høyer
VP of Equity Research, Jyske Bank

Thank you.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Poul Jessen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Poul Jessen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes, hi, there are two questions. One is on, Germany and the growth you have down there. I think it was in June that the management of Germany was out saying that you had the same potential in Germany that you had in the U.K.. And then, I was wondering if you could put a little more flavor on if that means that you want to triple the German sales to be on par with the U.K. or it's relative? And secondly, you reduced the provisions for returns from 8%-7%, in this quarter. Could you say something about what that means in million DKK, on the revenue line? Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Thank you for your questions. I'll take the first question, and Peter will take the second one. I think that you are referring to an article in a Danish newspaper, where asked about the potential in Germany, our general manager in Germany smiled, and then the journalist, he kind of took that to the point where he thought that we could have the same potential in Germany as in the U.K.. I think when we talk about Germany, we are very encouraged with the 8% like-for-like. And as you might remember from last quarter, we actually had an expectation of seeing some negative like-for-like, because of the development of the store network.

So an 8% like-for-like development in Germany after the first quarter is something which we find encouraging. I think that we have to look at the German market. We are in a process where we are opening concept stores. the German organization is doing a brilliant job in that, and with good German efficiency, have put that into a structured system. So by the end of this year, we believe that our store network is refreshed and good, and then we'll take it from there. Clearly, with what we are doing in Germany and the amount of effort and also money we're putting into it, we do believe in the future of the German market.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, and in terms of the question on the return provisions, it is 7% in Q2, and you're right, it was 8% in Q1. It does fluctuate over the quarters, so if you compare to same quarter last year, it is actually unchanged because it was also 7% in Q2 of last year.

Poul Jessen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Danske Bank

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder to ask a question today, please press star one. We will now take our next question from Kristian Godiksen from SEB. Please go ahead.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Hi, yeah, this is Kristian Godiksen from SEB. A number of questions. Firstly, can you maybe comment a bit on the progress of Hannoush and the outlook of this turning positive? You have now opened 10 out of the 22 new upgraded them to the Evolution store design. Have you seen a pickup in sales growth from these 10 stores? That was the first question. Secondly, maybe if you could comment a bit on what was the trigger that made you take over the distribution in Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines. Thirdly, just more of a housekeeping question. You mentioned that the 25% fewer product variations on the Mother's Day collection in the quarter impacted growth.

I would assume that this would just, sorry, equal higher volumes of the remaining product variations in the coming quarters, or so we should see more refill of inventories, or how should we think about this? Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Okay, I think that when we look at the Hannoush stores, and generally, I think that we should relate that more to the Northeast part of the U.S. We have seen over the years quite some negative like-for-like development. I think that on a slightly encouraging level, we can say that we now see small negative like-for-like numbers in the region. I think that when we look at our Hannoush stores, they're doing pretty well in the region. The trigger for Singapore, Macau, the Philippines, is actually just in line with what we've been doing over the years...

When we've seen our distributors doing well, and actually we are getting to a position where we are well established in the market, and it comes up for renewal of our agreements, we have a look at it, and if we find that it would be beneficial for us to take over, we do that. And that's exactly what we are doing in Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines. And yeah, you can say just in line with our strategy in that area. And then the last question was regarding the-

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

The product variations, 25% fewer product variations for the Mother's Day.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Yeah, yeah, good question, yeah. What you have to be aware of is that when we kind of put a new collection into the market, we, what happens is that concept stores, but also the gold dealers and silver dealers that we have, they kind of stock up on new products. And that, of course, is supporting a broader collection in terms of direct sales. But you're absolutely right, when it comes to mixing it with existing products, then the total sales will also stay strong, even though it will not be related to the collection that we are dropping at that position or that period of time.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay, thank you. Just two-

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Yeah.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Just two quick follow-ups. So on the Hannoush side, the 10 stores that are now upgraded to the new Evolution store, have you seen an impact from that?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I don't think we'll comment on the individual stores, but what we can say is that if we look at the area in general, we are doing good, and we are progressing, and that's very encouraging.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay. And then just on the distribution side, on the Singapore, Macau, Philippines, so what is the difference compared to for this distribution agreement to the one with Russia? And when does the distribution agreement with PanClub expire?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I think that every market is special, and every market has its own kind of determinants, which is something that we look at. What we have looked at is the development in Singapore, Macau, and the Philippines, and we were at a time where we thought it was a good idea to take over the distribution there. It doesn't have any implication on other markets.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay. But, but can you just comment on when does the distribution agreement expires in Russia with PanClub?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

No, I cannot.

Kristian Godiksen
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay. All right, thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're very welcome.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Klaus Kehl from Nykredit Markets. Please go ahead.

Klaus Kehl
Sell-side Equity Research Analyst, Nykredit Markets

Yeah, hello, Klaus Kehl from Nykredit Markets. Two questions, please. First of all, could you give us some comments about e-commerce in the U.S. and what kind of impact it has had here in Q2? And secondly, a question about the EBITDA margin, and could you try to elaborate a bit on how it is affected by store openings here in the first half of the year versus second half of the year? And what I'm thinking about is that, well, when you open a store, upfront, you have all the costs, and hopefully, in this, let's say, a couple of months after an opening, you will start to see the revenues. So in other words, it must have some kind of a negative margin impact short term. Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I'll take the first question, and then Peter will relate to the second question. It is correct that we have opened our e-store in the U.S. We are very happy with the fact that everything is working. We've also seen meaningful revenue coming through that store. We are not going to give you any figures on how this is developing at this time, but at least...

What we can say is that it's going to be very interesting to follow this over the year, because what we've seen in other markets is that when we get into the gifting season by the end of the year, men like me and you tend to be more interested in e-commerce with the guidance we get from our wives and girlfriends, probably only one sort, by the way. But there we can see a pickup of the traffic in the e-store. So we're going to follow it. It's working, and we are encouraged with the development so far.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, in terms of the impact of store openings, be aware that some of the openings are own and operated stores, and others are franchised. To give you an idea of the impact of the own and operated stores, that had a negative impact on the EBITDA of 1 percentage point in Q2, the store openings in Q2. And when we open a franchise store, we typically, across all markets, have a sell-in of around EUR 250,000. So those are the building blocks for that. And it's all rough numbers, of course.

Klaus Kehl
Sell-side Equity Research Analyst, Nykredit Markets

So you said it had a negative impact of 1 percentage point in Q2 from your own operated stores? Was that correctly understood?

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes. Of course, that's the, you say, why is that a negative impact? But be aware that the stores we are opening in Q2, that, in connection with the turnaround in Germany, as well as the turnaround in the Northeast, that obviously has a somewhat lower EBITDA margin than other stores.

Klaus Kehl
Sell-side Equity Research Analyst, Nykredit Markets

Okay. And should we then expect a similar negative impact in second half of 2015, or will that start to improve?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

... obviously, we are working to improve the stores in Germany as well as the Northeast.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Patrik Setterberg from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Patrik Setterberg
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Yes, hello, gentlemen. Two questions, please. The first question is regarding Disney. It is obviously making a difference for you in the U.S. market. I just wondering, when, when is there a need for you to launch the next collection in order to keep up the momentum? And my second question is regarding this upgrade on the store or the number of store concept stores you will open in 2015. Is there any particular markets which are driving this upgrade, or is it gonna be divided fairly equal to the number of store openings we have seen over the past couple of quarters in terms of geographical mixture?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Thank you very much. First question, I'll take both of them. The first question about Disney is making a difference. We do believe that there is a good kind of match between the Disney brand and the Pandora brand, and we've also seen interest from our consumers in America on the Disney Collection. We do launch collections all the time, so as we refresh our assortment in general, we also refresh the Disney assortment. So we have put that into our general upgrade of assortment. So that's actually happening continuously as we are doing with our other products. So that is happening in the same way.

And then when it comes to concept stores, it is divided over our different regions equally. So you can expect that as something as we've also done before. So equally distributed as expected.

Patrik Setterberg
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Okay, thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Chiara Battistini from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hello, thank you. Just quick, two quick follow-up questions. First, on the management change that was announced last week, the head of Australia moving to be the head of Europe, if you could give us more color on the reasons for that. And then finally, on the on the margins guidance, you confirmed a 37%. When I look at the numbers for H2, I would expect gross margin to expand more than in H1, and also there should be more leverage coming through also because you will have the no repeat of some of the provisions that took place in quarter three. So I calculate a bit better than 37%, so I was wondering if there's going to be any investment, in particular, that we should be aware of in, in H2, please. Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

I'll take the first question, and Peter, he is well equipped to take the second question. The management change that we have announced is that we have our present president of Australia and New Zealand, who's going to kind of reallocate to Copenhagen and be the head of our European business. We do believe that we see some potential in aligning the organization in Europe. Also, making sure that we actually take the learnings from the different markets and bring them around. That's one part of it.

The other part is we have announced also a new management board in the company, where we will have representatives from the Americas, from Asia, and also David Allen from Europe in the future, who will be the voice of Europe in that. In that way, we would be able to run a more efficient company and have a much more and a stronger structure to kind of support the development of the company. That's the reason behind it.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yes, and in terms of the margin for the second half, be aware that we are taking over China as of 1st July, and as said, we'll start spending money in China. Also, Germany, we still have quite some stores to open in the second half, and also need to put more marketing efforts behind the brand in Germany.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Perfect. Thank you very much. Maybe one last thing on Disney. Will you... Within the contract that you have with Disney, is that limited to the charms, or that could be expanded also to rings, please?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

It is already.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

It is. Okay, thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

We also have Disney rings in our stores.

Chiara Battistini
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Lars Topholm from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yes, just a quick follow-up question on channel inventories and order backlog. When we speak to dealers, we hear that a lot of the best-selling SKUs were out of stock or replenishing of orders was particularly slow in Q2. I wonder how you look at that, if it's deliberate strategy and if you think channel inventories are normal or maybe a bit below normal? Thank you.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome. We do believe our channel inventory is good.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Good, good means low, right?

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

No, it doesn't mean low. It means it's on a sufficient level. I would say, in general, I've been very encouraged to see how well our Thailand production copes with the development in the demand and actually upgrades our manufacturing capabilities. So we are very good on that. I think that what you might see from time to time is that if our can I say, prognosis on individual products is a little off, then you would see single products which is less in supply than others, but that's more a household issue which is related to the fact that sometimes there's a very, very strong demand for individual SKUs.

Peter Vekslund
CFO, Pandora

Yeah, so maybe just to add, when you have 10,000 points of sale with seven drops and adding 50% new DVs a year, there will always be some dealers that are not getting what they, what they would like, and then they start complaining. That's a part of doing business.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

But you-

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

We are very happy with our inventory levels, and our capacity is strong and good and supports the business.

Lars Topholm
Director of Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

You're welcome.

Operator

As there are no further questions in the queue, that will conclude today's question and answer session. I will now turn you back to the host for any additional or closing remarks.

Anders Colding Friis
CEO, Pandora

Okay, thank you very much for the discussion and the, and the good questions today. Enjoyable, and thank you very much for joining us this morning. Have a great day.

Operator

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

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